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000
FXUS65 KTFX 010439
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1038 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Cluster of showers moving through the central forecast area
warranted an early update to the forecast grids through tonight.
Increased PoPs accordingly...primarily over eastern Cascade,
southern Chouteau, northern Meagher, Judith Basin, and Fergus
Counties through 06Z/Wednesday...the heaviest rain showers will
likely impact the region prior to 04Z. Showers over the entire CWA
look to become much less organized during the 06z-12z/Wednesday
period as a weak vorticity max moves east and the lower atmosphere
stabilizes. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0438Z.
Upper level trough moving across the Northern Rockies and MT will
maintain scattered showers across most of Central and Southwest MT
tonight. Short duration MVFR ceilings and mtn obscuration are
expected in most areas with some lower ceilings and more persistent
shower activity affecting areas to the immediate north of the Little
Belt and Big Snowy Mtns, including areas between the KGTF and KLWT
terminals. Drier and more stable airmass moves in behind the exiting
upper level disturbance Wednesday morning, bringing clearing skies
Wednesday afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing at most locations
after 16Z Wed. Surface winds will remain from the NW tonight,
becoming W/SW Wednesday afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Watching two shortwave trofs that will
affect our weather through Thursday. The first...presently over
Idaho...will cause rain showers tonight over the N-central plains
associated with a surface trof pulling away from the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind this
front and will remain breezy tonight. A piece of this NW shortwave
is splitting south. Snow levels drop to around 6000 ft MSL early
Wednesday, so rain will change to snow mainly over the southwest
Mountains with up to 2.5 inches snow at the highest elevations of
the Madison Range. The NAM is an outlier in carrying an additional
patch of showers through the southwest Wednesday morning with the
upper level trof axis. All precipitation clears the CWA by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next shortwave trof arrives
on a strengthening northwest flow early Thursday. Precip moves
across the international border with the cold front Thursday
morning. Snow levels drop to the surface along the Rocky Mountain
Front. This activity moves through central Montana during the day
on Thursday and clears Thursday night. Nutter

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  58  36  48 /  50  20  30  40
CTB  39  57  33  47 /  60  10  50  30
HLN  42  59  38  56 /  30  20  10  30
BZN  36  54  32  54 /  40  40  10  10
WEY  25  46  21  52 /  50  30  10  10
DLN  33  55  33  58 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  43  62  38  49 /  50  20  40  20
LWT  40  56  36  47 /  80  30  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 010439
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1038 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Cluster of showers moving through the central forecast area
warranted an early update to the forecast grids through tonight.
Increased PoPs accordingly...primarily over eastern Cascade,
southern Chouteau, northern Meagher, Judith Basin, and Fergus
Counties through 06Z/Wednesday...the heaviest rain showers will
likely impact the region prior to 04Z. Showers over the entire CWA
look to become much less organized during the 06z-12z/Wednesday
period as a weak vorticity max moves east and the lower atmosphere
stabilizes. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0438Z.
Upper level trough moving across the Northern Rockies and MT will
maintain scattered showers across most of Central and Southwest MT
tonight. Short duration MVFR ceilings and mtn obscuration are
expected in most areas with some lower ceilings and more persistent
shower activity affecting areas to the immediate north of the Little
Belt and Big Snowy Mtns, including areas between the KGTF and KLWT
terminals. Drier and more stable airmass moves in behind the exiting
upper level disturbance Wednesday morning, bringing clearing skies
Wednesday afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing at most locations
after 16Z Wed. Surface winds will remain from the NW tonight,
becoming W/SW Wednesday afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Watching two shortwave trofs that will
affect our weather through Thursday. The first...presently over
Idaho...will cause rain showers tonight over the N-central plains
associated with a surface trof pulling away from the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind this
front and will remain breezy tonight. A piece of this NW shortwave
is splitting south. Snow levels drop to around 6000 ft MSL early
Wednesday, so rain will change to snow mainly over the southwest
Mountains with up to 2.5 inches snow at the highest elevations of
the Madison Range. The NAM is an outlier in carrying an additional
patch of showers through the southwest Wednesday morning with the
upper level trof axis. All precipitation clears the CWA by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next shortwave trof arrives
on a strengthening northwest flow early Thursday. Precip moves
across the international border with the cold front Thursday
morning. Snow levels drop to the surface along the Rocky Mountain
Front. This activity moves through central Montana during the day
on Thursday and clears Thursday night. Nutter

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  58  36  48 /  50  20  30  40
CTB  39  57  33  47 /  60  10  50  30
HLN  42  59  38  56 /  30  20  10  30
BZN  36  54  32  54 /  40  40  10  10
WEY  25  46  21  52 /  50  30  10  10
DLN  33  55  33  58 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  43  62  38  49 /  50  20  40  20
LWT  40  56  36  47 /  80  30  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010310
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD ADVECTION HAS TAKEN OVER IN THE EAST AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LOTS OF INSTABILITY YET IN
THIS NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THE SPLIT FLOW TROUGH AXIS YET
UPSTREAM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS ARE NEAR NORTH FACING
TERRAIN AROUND THE BIG HORNS AND ASHLAND DIVIDE. STILL LOOKS
COOLER TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH -22C 500MB
COLD POOL DRIFTING RIGHT OVER US. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING THRU NORTHERN SD CONTINUES TO WRAP
SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR EAST. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL FOR THE MOST PART END IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN MT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME
UNORGANIZED AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. PER THE NW SFC
AND MID LEVEL FLOW...FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHERN UPSLOPE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 700MB
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -4C SUGGEST SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PRIMARILY OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND BIG HORNS...
GREATEST ON NW ASPECTS.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...GREATEST OVER THE MTNS AS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A DRYING AIRMASS.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE TROF ALOFT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
CLIPPER FROM NW CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. TIMING OF
FROPA HAS TRENDED FASTER SINCE YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE 50S WITH COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A DROP IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL BE A TRUE BURST OF FALL WITH COOL TEMPS AND
GUSTY N-NW WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF BUT WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS WE COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. KEEP IN MIND ANY PCPN WILL BE BRIEF. SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR A COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...THOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST IN OUR
EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MILD AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS DID BRING SOME WEAK
ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT BAY.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT
WINDY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS DID NOT LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE SAT AND MON THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. GUSTY W TO NW
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WED. SHOWERS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE REGION ON WED WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON WED.
ARTHUR/CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/059 042/055 033/068 049/073 047/069 047/071 048/069
    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/056 035/058 030/068 042/071 040/067 041/070 044/069
    32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
HDN 043/061 039/057 030/069 045/074 046/070 044/071 047/070
    52/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 047/060 041/054 030/065 045/073 046/067 044/068 045/065
    52/W    02/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B    11/B
4BQ 044/060 039/056 030/065 044/072 047/067 043/069 045/066
    42/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U    11/B
BHK 045/059 038/053 030/058 039/068 042/062 041/064 040/061
    72/W    03/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B    11/B
SHR 044/057 035/056 028/067 041/071 044/067 040/070 043/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010310
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD ADVECTION HAS TAKEN OVER IN THE EAST AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LOTS OF INSTABILITY YET IN
THIS NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THE SPLIT FLOW TROUGH AXIS YET
UPSTREAM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS ARE NEAR NORTH FACING
TERRAIN AROUND THE BIG HORNS AND ASHLAND DIVIDE. STILL LOOKS
COOLER TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH -22C 500MB
COLD POOL DRIFTING RIGHT OVER US. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING THRU NORTHERN SD CONTINUES TO WRAP
SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR EAST. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL FOR THE MOST PART END IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN MT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME
UNORGANIZED AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. PER THE NW SFC
AND MID LEVEL FLOW...FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHERN UPSLOPE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 700MB
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -4C SUGGEST SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PRIMARILY OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND BIG HORNS...
GREATEST ON NW ASPECTS.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...GREATEST OVER THE MTNS AS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A DRYING AIRMASS.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE TROF ALOFT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
CLIPPER FROM NW CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. TIMING OF
FROPA HAS TRENDED FASTER SINCE YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE 50S WITH COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A DROP IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL BE A TRUE BURST OF FALL WITH COOL TEMPS AND
GUSTY N-NW WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF BUT WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS WE COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. KEEP IN MIND ANY PCPN WILL BE BRIEF. SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR A COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...THOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST IN OUR
EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MILD AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS DID BRING SOME WEAK
ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT BAY.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT
WINDY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS DID NOT LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE SAT AND MON THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. GUSTY W TO NW
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WED. SHOWERS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE REGION ON WED WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON WED.
ARTHUR/CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/059 042/055 033/068 049/073 047/069 047/071 048/069
    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/056 035/058 030/068 042/071 040/067 041/070 044/069
    32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
HDN 043/061 039/057 030/069 045/074 046/070 044/071 047/070
    52/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 047/060 041/054 030/065 045/073 046/067 044/068 045/065
    52/W    02/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B    11/B
4BQ 044/060 039/056 030/065 044/072 047/067 043/069 045/066
    42/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U    11/B
BHK 045/059 038/053 030/058 039/068 042/062 041/064 040/061
    72/W    03/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B    11/B
SHR 044/057 035/056 028/067 041/071 044/067 040/070 043/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 010051 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
651 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CLASH WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE EAST.

RAIN: RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING SOLID MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN
OBSCURATION AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHICH IS STEADY. HOWEVER CEILINGS
ARE BOUNCING RAPIDLY BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEARING AIRPORT SHUTDOWN.

THUNDERSTORMS: KOLF AND KGGW COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG A
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED OVER AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THUNDER
STORMS WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AREA WINDS: NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED... GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 010051 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
651 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CLASH WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE EAST.

RAIN: RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING SOLID MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN
OBSCURATION AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHICH IS STEADY. HOWEVER CEILINGS
ARE BOUNCING RAPIDLY BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEARING AIRPORT SHUTDOWN.

THUNDERSTORMS: KOLF AND KGGW COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG A
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED OVER AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THUNDER
STORMS WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AREA WINDS: NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED... GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 010051 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
651 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CLASH WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE EAST.

RAIN: RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING SOLID MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN
OBSCURATION AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHICH IS STEADY. HOWEVER CEILINGS
ARE BOUNCING RAPIDLY BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEARING AIRPORT SHUTDOWN.

THUNDERSTORMS: KOLF AND KGGW COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG A
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED OVER AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THUNDER
STORMS WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AREA WINDS: NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED... GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 010051 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
651 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CLASH WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE EAST.

RAIN: RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING SOLID MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM RAIN
OBSCURATION AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHICH IS STEADY. HOWEVER CEILINGS
ARE BOUNCING RAPIDLY BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEARING AIRPORT SHUTDOWN.

THUNDERSTORMS: KOLF AND KGGW COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG A
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED OVER AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THUNDER
STORMS WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AREA WINDS: NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED... GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 010042
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
642 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Cluster of showers moving through the central forecast area
warranted an early update to the forecast grids through tonight.
Increased PoPs accordingly...primarily over eastern Cascade,
southern Chouteau, northern Meagher, Judith Basin, and Fergus
Counties through 06Z/Wednesday...the heaviest rain showers will
likely impact the region prior to 04Z. Showers over the entire CWA
look to become much less organized during the 06z-12z/Wednesday
period as a weak vorticity max moves east and the lower atmosphere
stabilizes. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A moist and somewhat unstable NW flow aloft will persist over the
Northern Rockies and MT through Wednesday morning with the airmass
drying/stabilizing Wednesday afternoon. Numerous showers will
continue through early this evening, bringing brief precipitation
and short duration MVFR ceilings and mtn obscuration. Expect
coverage of showers to diminish after sunset but widely scattered
showers will continue into Wednesday morning. Drier air behind the
exiting upper level disturbance will bring clearing Wednesday
afternoon. Surface winds will remain from the NW tonight, becoming
W/SW Wednesday afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Watching two shortwave trofs that will
affect our weather through Thursday. The first...presently over
Idaho...will cause rain showers tonight over the N-central plains
associated with a surface trof pulling away from the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind this
front and will remain breezy tonight. A piece of this NW shortwave
is splitting south. Snow levels drop to around 6000 ft MSL early
Wednesday, so rain will change to snow mainly over the southwest
Mountains with up to 2.5 inches snow at the highest elevations of
the Madison Range. The NAM is an outlier in carrying an additional
patch of showers through the southwest Wednesday morning with the
upper level trof axis. All precipitation clears the CWA by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next shortwave trof arrives
on a strengthening northwest flow early Thursday. Precip moves
across the international border with the cold front Thursday
morning. Snow levels drop to the surface along the Rocky Mountain
Front. This activity moves through central Montana during the day
on Thursday and clears Thursday night. Nutter

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  58  36  48 /  50  20  30  40
CTB  39  57  33  47 /  60  10  50  30
HLN  42  59  38  56 /  30  20  10  30
BZN  36  54  32  54 /  40  40  10  10
WEY  25  46  21  52 /  50  30  10  10
DLN  33  55  33  58 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  43  62  38  49 /  50  20  40  20
LWT  40  56  36  47 /  80  30  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 010015 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
615 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER
TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE
OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT
THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR... POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES... CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KGDV
...KSDY AND KOLF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGGW HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGGW POSSIBLE DROPPING TO
MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 010015 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
615 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE
CURRENT AND NEAR SHORT-TERM EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR NW ZONES NEEDED TO INCLUDE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERALL FELT LIKE 3-HOURLY GRIDS
TONIGHT WOULD BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA NOW THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH OUT OUT OF MOST
OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR AND NAM HOLD THINGS A
LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB
OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND BORDER. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO THE LOWER POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER
TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE
OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT
THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR... POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES... CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KGDV
...KSDY AND KOLF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGGW HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGGW POSSIBLE DROPPING TO
MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 302320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Watching two shortwave trofs that will
affect our weather through Thursday. The first...presently over
Idaho...will cause rain showers tonight over the N-central plains
associated with a surface trof pulling away from the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind this
front and will remain breezy tonight. A piece of this NW shortwave
is splitting south. Snow levels drop to around 6000 ft MSL early
Wednesday, so rain will change to snow mainly over the southwest
Mountains with up to 2.5 inches snow at the highest elevations of
the Madison Range. The NAM is an outlier in carrying an additional
patch of showers through the southwest Wednesday morning with the
upper level trof axis. All precipitation clears the CWA by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next shortwave trof arrives
on a strengthening northwest flow early Thursday. Precip moves
across the international border with the cold front Thursday
morning. Snow levels drop to the surface along the Rocky Mountain
Front. This activity moves through central Montana during the day
on Thursday and clears Thursday night. Nutter

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A moist and somewhat unstable NW flow aloft will persist over the
Northern Rockies and MT through Wednesday morning with the airmass
drying/stabilizing Wednesday afternoon. Numerous showers will
continue through early this evening, bringing brief precipitation
and short duration MVFR ceilings and mtn obscuration. Expect
coverage of showers to diminish after sunset but widely scattered
showers will continue into Wednesday morning. Drier air behind the
exiting upper level disturbance will bring clearing Wednesday
afternoon. Surface winds will remain from the NW tonight, becoming
W/SW Wednesday afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  58  36  48 /  40  20  30  40
CTB  39  57  33  47 /  60  10  50  30
HLN  42  59  38  56 /  30  20  10  30
BZN  36  54  32  54 /  50  40  10  10
WEY  25  46  21  52 /  50  30  10  10
DLN  33  55  33  58 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  43  62  38  49 /  50  20  40  20
LWT  40  56  36  47 /  50  30  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 302320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Watching two shortwave trofs that will
affect our weather through Thursday. The first...presently over
Idaho...will cause rain showers tonight over the N-central plains
associated with a surface trof pulling away from the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind this
front and will remain breezy tonight. A piece of this NW shortwave
is splitting south. Snow levels drop to around 6000 ft MSL early
Wednesday, so rain will change to snow mainly over the southwest
Mountains with up to 2.5 inches snow at the highest elevations of
the Madison Range. The NAM is an outlier in carrying an additional
patch of showers through the southwest Wednesday morning with the
upper level trof axis. All precipitation clears the CWA by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next shortwave trof arrives
on a strengthening northwest flow early Thursday. Precip moves
across the international border with the cold front Thursday
morning. Snow levels drop to the surface along the Rocky Mountain
Front. This activity moves through central Montana during the day
on Thursday and clears Thursday night. Nutter

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A moist and somewhat unstable NW flow aloft will persist over the
Northern Rockies and MT through Wednesday morning with the airmass
drying/stabilizing Wednesday afternoon. Numerous showers will
continue through early this evening, bringing brief precipitation
and short duration MVFR ceilings and mtn obscuration. Expect
coverage of showers to diminish after sunset but widely scattered
showers will continue into Wednesday morning. Drier air behind the
exiting upper level disturbance will bring clearing Wednesday
afternoon. Surface winds will remain from the NW tonight, becoming
W/SW Wednesday afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  58  36  48 /  40  20  30  40
CTB  39  57  33  47 /  60  10  50  30
HLN  42  59  38  56 /  30  20  10  30
BZN  36  54  32  54 /  50  40  10  10
WEY  25  46  21  52 /  50  30  10  10
DLN  33  55  33  58 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  43  62  38  49 /  50  20  40  20
LWT  40  56  36  47 /  50  30  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 302235
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
434 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...Added isolated thunderstorms across northwest Montana
and beefed up winds across Flathead Lake and southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A potent wave is currently approaching the
Montana/Idaho border and has already produced isolated
thunderstorms. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon has shown
decent breaks in the clouds from the Tobacco Valley south to the
Marion and Lake Mary Ronan. With a little bit more heating in
these areas, the showers will be able to grow and transition into
a few t-storms. The biggest threat will be lightning for those
outside including hunters and backcountry enthusiasts.

The Flathead Lake Biological Station`s buoy located at the Narrows
reported south-southwest winds 21 to 24 mph at 4 pm MDT. Therefore
increased winds a little bit more over the lake. Looking at
surrounding weather stations in the area, not really expecting
higher winds than what is already occurring.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A slow moving trof of low pressure has moved over
the region this afternoon. The much cooler air and associated
dynamics with this low has triggered a few showers over the
region. This low and associated isolated to scattered showers will
remain over the region through Wednesday morning. Some of these
cells at higher elevations will fall as snow showers. Little or no
accumulations are expected but nevertheless it will be cold and
showery at times bringing less than ideal conditions for those
with outdoor activities.

The main impacts for the rest of the week will be a few days of
sustained breezy conditions. A strong northerly jet aloft and some
tight pressure gradients will produce the strongest winds on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph. Friday is
also expected to be breezy with gusts through much of the day.
These winds will bring choppy conditions to area lakes.

The remainder of the weekend through the middle of next week will
bring very pleasant autumn weather. Dry conditions with at or
above seasonal temperatures around 70 degrees are anticipated each
day. Enjoy this stretch of warm and dry days for climatologically
long stretches of warm/dry days end soon as average temperatures
lower by 10-15 degrees from the beginning of October to the end of
the month.

AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 302235
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
434 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...Added isolated thunderstorms across northwest Montana
and beefed up winds across Flathead Lake and southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A potent wave is currently approaching the
Montana/Idaho border and has already produced isolated
thunderstorms. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon has shown
decent breaks in the clouds from the Tobacco Valley south to the
Marion and Lake Mary Ronan. With a little bit more heating in
these areas, the showers will be able to grow and transition into
a few t-storms. The biggest threat will be lightning for those
outside including hunters and backcountry enthusiasts.

The Flathead Lake Biological Station`s buoy located at the Narrows
reported south-southwest winds 21 to 24 mph at 4 pm MDT. Therefore
increased winds a little bit more over the lake. Looking at
surrounding weather stations in the area, not really expecting
higher winds than what is already occurring.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A slow moving trof of low pressure has moved over
the region this afternoon. The much cooler air and associated
dynamics with this low has triggered a few showers over the
region. This low and associated isolated to scattered showers will
remain over the region through Wednesday morning. Some of these
cells at higher elevations will fall as snow showers. Little or no
accumulations are expected but nevertheless it will be cold and
showery at times bringing less than ideal conditions for those
with outdoor activities.

The main impacts for the rest of the week will be a few days of
sustained breezy conditions. A strong northerly jet aloft and some
tight pressure gradients will produce the strongest winds on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph. Friday is
also expected to be breezy with gusts through much of the day.
These winds will bring choppy conditions to area lakes.

The remainder of the weekend through the middle of next week will
bring very pleasant autumn weather. Dry conditions with at or
above seasonal temperatures around 70 degrees are anticipated each
day. Enjoy this stretch of warm and dry days for climatologically
long stretches of warm/dry days end soon as average temperatures
lower by 10-15 degrees from the beginning of October to the end of
the month.

AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 302235
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
434 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...Added isolated thunderstorms across northwest Montana
and beefed up winds across Flathead Lake and southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A potent wave is currently approaching the
Montana/Idaho border and has already produced isolated
thunderstorms. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon has shown
decent breaks in the clouds from the Tobacco Valley south to the
Marion and Lake Mary Ronan. With a little bit more heating in
these areas, the showers will be able to grow and transition into
a few t-storms. The biggest threat will be lightning for those
outside including hunters and backcountry enthusiasts.

The Flathead Lake Biological Station`s buoy located at the Narrows
reported south-southwest winds 21 to 24 mph at 4 pm MDT. Therefore
increased winds a little bit more over the lake. Looking at
surrounding weather stations in the area, not really expecting
higher winds than what is already occurring.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A slow moving trof of low pressure has moved over
the region this afternoon. The much cooler air and associated
dynamics with this low has triggered a few showers over the
region. This low and associated isolated to scattered showers will
remain over the region through Wednesday morning. Some of these
cells at higher elevations will fall as snow showers. Little or no
accumulations are expected but nevertheless it will be cold and
showery at times bringing less than ideal conditions for those
with outdoor activities.

The main impacts for the rest of the week will be a few days of
sustained breezy conditions. A strong northerly jet aloft and some
tight pressure gradients will produce the strongest winds on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph. Friday is
also expected to be breezy with gusts through much of the day.
These winds will bring choppy conditions to area lakes.

The remainder of the weekend through the middle of next week will
bring very pleasant autumn weather. Dry conditions with at or
above seasonal temperatures around 70 degrees are anticipated each
day. Enjoy this stretch of warm and dry days for climatologically
long stretches of warm/dry days end soon as average temperatures
lower by 10-15 degrees from the beginning of October to the end of
the month.

AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 302235
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
434 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...Added isolated thunderstorms across northwest Montana
and beefed up winds across Flathead Lake and southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A potent wave is currently approaching the
Montana/Idaho border and has already produced isolated
thunderstorms. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon has shown
decent breaks in the clouds from the Tobacco Valley south to the
Marion and Lake Mary Ronan. With a little bit more heating in
these areas, the showers will be able to grow and transition into
a few t-storms. The biggest threat will be lightning for those
outside including hunters and backcountry enthusiasts.

The Flathead Lake Biological Station`s buoy located at the Narrows
reported south-southwest winds 21 to 24 mph at 4 pm MDT. Therefore
increased winds a little bit more over the lake. Looking at
surrounding weather stations in the area, not really expecting
higher winds than what is already occurring.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A slow moving trof of low pressure has moved over
the region this afternoon. The much cooler air and associated
dynamics with this low has triggered a few showers over the
region. This low and associated isolated to scattered showers will
remain over the region through Wednesday morning. Some of these
cells at higher elevations will fall as snow showers. Little or no
accumulations are expected but nevertheless it will be cold and
showery at times bringing less than ideal conditions for those
with outdoor activities.

The main impacts for the rest of the week will be a few days of
sustained breezy conditions. A strong northerly jet aloft and some
tight pressure gradients will produce the strongest winds on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph. Friday is
also expected to be breezy with gusts through much of the day.
These winds will bring choppy conditions to area lakes.

The remainder of the weekend through the middle of next week will
bring very pleasant autumn weather. Dry conditions with at or
above seasonal temperatures around 70 degrees are anticipated each
day. Enjoy this stretch of warm and dry days for climatologically
long stretches of warm/dry days end soon as average temperatures
lower by 10-15 degrees from the beginning of October to the end of
the month.

AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302059
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
259 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Watching two shortwave trofs that will
affect our weather through Thursday. The first...presently over
Idaho...will cause rain showers tonight over the N-central plains
associated with a surface trof pulling away from the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind this
front and will remain breezy tonight. A piece of this NW shortwave
is splitting south. Snow levels drop to around 6000 ft MSL early
Wednesday, so rain will change to snow mainly over the southwest
Mountains with up to 2.5 inches snow at the highest elevations of
the Madison Range. The NAM is an outlier in carrying an additional
patch of showers through the southwest Wednesday morning with the
upper level trof axis. All precipitation clears the CWA by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next shortwave trof arrives
on a strengthening northwest flow early Thursday. Precip moves
across the international border with the cold front Thursday
morning. Snow levels drop to the surface along the Rocky Mountain
Front. This activity moves through central Montana during the day
on Thursday and clears Thursday night. Nutter

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Scattered showers can be expected over the next 24 hours, mainly
from 06Z-15Z over the Continental Divide and Southwest MT. MVFR
conditions are possible in and around showers. Mountains will be
obscured after 06Z. Skies clear out from the northwest after 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  58  36  48 /  40  20  30  40
CTB  39  57  33  47 /  60  10  50  30
HLN  42  59  38  56 /  30  20  10  30
BZN  36  54  32  54 /  50  40  10  10
WEY  25  46  21  52 /  50  30  10  10
DLN  33  55  33  58 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  43  62  38  49 /  50  20  40  20
LWT  40  56  36  47 /  50  30  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 302059
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
259 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Watching two shortwave trofs that will
affect our weather through Thursday. The first...presently over
Idaho...will cause rain showers tonight over the N-central plains
associated with a surface trof pulling away from the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds have shifted to the northwest behind this
front and will remain breezy tonight. A piece of this NW shortwave
is splitting south. Snow levels drop to around 6000 ft MSL early
Wednesday, so rain will change to snow mainly over the southwest
Mountains with up to 2.5 inches snow at the highest elevations of
the Madison Range. The NAM is an outlier in carrying an additional
patch of showers through the southwest Wednesday morning with the
upper level trof axis. All precipitation clears the CWA by
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The next shortwave trof arrives
on a strengthening northwest flow early Thursday. Precip moves
across the international border with the cold front Thursday
morning. Snow levels drop to the surface along the Rocky Mountain
Front. This activity moves through central Montana during the day
on Thursday and clears Thursday night. Nutter

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Scattered showers can be expected over the next 24 hours, mainly
from 06Z-15Z over the Continental Divide and Southwest MT. MVFR
conditions are possible in and around showers. Mountains will be
obscured after 06Z. Skies clear out from the northwest after 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  58  36  48 /  40  20  30  40
CTB  39  57  33  47 /  60  10  50  30
HLN  42  59  38  56 /  30  20  10  30
BZN  36  54  32  54 /  50  40  10  10
WEY  25  46  21  52 /  50  30  10  10
DLN  33  55  33  58 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  43  62  38  49 /  50  20  40  20
LWT  40  56  36  47 /  50  30  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 302054
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
253 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A slow moving trof of low pressure has moved over
the region this afternoon. The much cooler air and associated
dynamics with this low has triggered a few showers over the
region. This low and associated isolated to scattered showers will
remain over the region through Wednesday morning. Some of these
cells at higher elevations will fall as snow showers. Little or no
accumulations are expected but nevertheless it will be cold and
showery at times bringing less than ideal conditions for those
with outdoor activities.

The main impacts for the rest of the week will be a few days of
sustained breezy conditions. A strong northerly jet aloft and some
tight pressure gradients will produce the strongest winds on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph. Friday is
also expected to be breezy with gusts through much of the day.
These winds will bring choppy conditions to area lakes.

The remainder of the weekend through the middle of next week will
bring very pleasant autumn weather. Dry conditions with at or
above seasonal temperatures around 70 degrees are anticipated each
day. Enjoy this stretch of warm and dry days for climatologically
long stretches of warm/dry days end soon as average temperatures
lower by 10-15 degrees from the beginning of October to the end of
the month.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 302054
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
253 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A slow moving trof of low pressure has moved over
the region this afternoon. The much cooler air and associated
dynamics with this low has triggered a few showers over the
region. This low and associated isolated to scattered showers will
remain over the region through Wednesday morning. Some of these
cells at higher elevations will fall as snow showers. Little or no
accumulations are expected but nevertheless it will be cold and
showery at times bringing less than ideal conditions for those
with outdoor activities.

The main impacts for the rest of the week will be a few days of
sustained breezy conditions. A strong northerly jet aloft and some
tight pressure gradients will produce the strongest winds on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Expect gusts of 20-30 mph. Friday is
also expected to be breezy with gusts through much of the day.
These winds will bring choppy conditions to area lakes.

The remainder of the weekend through the middle of next week will
bring very pleasant autumn weather. Dry conditions with at or
above seasonal temperatures around 70 degrees are anticipated each
day. Enjoy this stretch of warm and dry days for climatologically
long stretches of warm/dry days end soon as average temperatures
lower by 10-15 degrees from the beginning of October to the end of
the month.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers have slowly tapered off since this morning
but scattered showers will be on the increase this afternoon and
evening as the last wave of moisture fills in. A few of these
showers may produce an isolated lightning strike this afternoon
over northwest Montana. Main impacts with these showers will be
terrain obscurations, lower ceilings, and brief reductions in
visibility. As the snow levels lower tonight, KBTM could possibly
see mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302051
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
251 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING THRU NORTHERN SD CONTINUES TO WRAP
SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR EAST. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL FOR THE MOST PART END IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN MT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME
UNORGANIZED AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. PER THE NW SFC
AND MID LEVEL FLOW...FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHERN UPSLOPE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 700MB
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -4C SUGGEST SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PRIMARILY OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND BIG HORNS...
GREATEST ON NW ASPECTS.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...GREATEST OVER THE MTNS AS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A DRYING AIRMASS.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE TROF ALOFT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
CLIPPER FROM NW CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. TIMING OF
FROPA HAS TRENDED FASTER SINCE YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE 50S WITH COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A DROP IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL BE A TRUE BURST OF FALL WITH COOL TEMPS AND
GUSTY N-NW WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF BUT WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS WE COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. KEEP IN MIND ANY PCPN WILL BE BRIEF. SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR A COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...THOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST IN OUR
EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MILD AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS DID BRING SOME WEAK
ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT BAY.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT
WINDY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS DID NOT LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE SAT AND MON THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AREAS E AND SE OF KMLS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND WED. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE REGION
ON WED WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ON WED. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/059 042/055 033/068 049/073 047/069 047/071 048/069
    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/056 035/058 030/068 042/071 040/067 041/070 044/069
    32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
HDN 043/061 039/057 030/069 045/074 046/070 044/071 047/070
    32/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 047/060 041/054 030/065 045/073 046/067 044/068 045/065
    32/W    02/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B    11/B
4BQ 044/060 039/056 030/065 044/072 047/067 043/069 045/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U    11/B
BHK 045/059 038/053 030/058 039/068 042/062 041/064 040/061
    72/W    03/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B    11/B
SHR 044/057 035/056 028/067 041/071 044/067 040/070 043/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 302040
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR
EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE
PRETTY MUCH OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR
AND NAM HOLD THINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND
BORDER. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO LOWER THE POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR... POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES... CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KGDV
...KSDY AND KOLF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGGW HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGGW POSSIBLE DROPPING TO
MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 302040
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND THE MAIN LONG WAVE COMING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS TO OUR
EAST ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE ARE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE GFS MOVES THE MOISTURE
PRETTY MUCH OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA BY 06Z BUT THE SREF AND HRRR
AND NAM HOLD THINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB OF SHOWING WHERE THE MOISTURE IS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE ND
BORDER. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THINGS DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUST BARELY HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DROP OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
A SURE BET FOR ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING. THE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE WERE TO LOWER THE POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
ADJUST CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR... POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES... CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KGDV
...KSDY AND KOLF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGGW HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY MOVE BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGGW POSSIBLE DROPPING TO
MVFR AS CEILINGS LOWER. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301804
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1200 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Complicated weather situation today with three shortwave trofs in
the region...but the overall outcome is breezy with scattered light
rain showers. Have raised POPs over portions of N-central MT this
morning, noting that rainfall amounts will be a few hundredths of
and inch or less. Locations along the Rocky Mtn Front will likely
stay dry due to downslope west winds. Raised the forecast high
temperatures a few degrees and adjusted hourly temps in this area as
those downslope winds have brought temps well above the forecast
minimums. Expect rain shower activity to increase this afternoon
and evening over the N-central plains as the shortwave trof
presently over E WA moves into western MT. Surface pressure rises
behind the departing surface trough will increase west winds
through the evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
Scattered showers can be expected over the next 24 hours, mainly
from 06Z-15Z over the Continental Divide and Southwest MT. MVFR
conditions are possible in and around showers. Mountains will be
obscured after 06Z. Skies clear out from the northwest after 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014/
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  50  40  10  40
CTB  61  38  57  32 /  60  60  10  60
HLN  61  41  59  38 /  60  10  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  60  30  30  10
WEY  50  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  60  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  70  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301733
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY AND BOWMAN RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY/MCDONALD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EFFECTING KMLS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM EAST OF MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KLVM
AFTER AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 044/059 040/056 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 061 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 068 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 065 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 061 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 058 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/064 040/062
    +/T 73/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 063 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301733
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY AND BOWMAN RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY/MCDONALD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EFFECTING KMLS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM EAST OF MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KLVM
AFTER AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 044/059 040/056 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 061 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 068 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 065 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 061 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 058 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/064 040/062
    +/T 73/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 063 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301733
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY AND BOWMAN RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY/MCDONALD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EFFECTING KMLS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM EAST OF MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KLVM
AFTER AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 044/059 040/056 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 061 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 068 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 065 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 061 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 058 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/064 040/062
    +/T 73/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 063 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301733
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY AND BOWMAN RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY/MCDONALD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EFFECTING KMLS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM EAST OF MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KLVM
AFTER AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 044/059 040/056 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 061 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 068 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 065 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 061 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 058 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/064 040/062
    +/T 73/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 063 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301624
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1024 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Complicated weather situation today with three shortwave trofs in
the region...but the overall outcome is breezy with scattered light
rain showers. Have raised POPs over portions of N-central MT this
morning, noting that rainfall amounts will be a few hundredths of
and inch or less. Locations along the Rocky Mtn Front will likely
stay dry due to downslope west winds. Raised the forecast high
temperatures a few degrees and adjusted hourly temps in this area as
those downslope winds have brought temps well above the forecast
minimums. Expect rain shower activity to increase this afternoon
and evening over the N-central plains as the shortwave trof
presently over E WA moves into western MT. Surface pressure rises
behind the departing surface trough will increase west winds
through the evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Several upper level disturbances will move eastward through the
region thru 12z Wednesday. Scattered showers can be expected thru
the period. IFR conditions are possible in/near showers. Mountains
will be obscured thru the period. Some improvement is expected
during the day on Wednesday...but another round or rain/snow will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014/
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  50  40  10  40
CTB  61  38  57  32 /  60  60  10  60
HLN  61  41  59  38 /  60  10  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  60  30  30  10
WEY  50  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  60  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  70  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301624
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1024 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Complicated weather situation today with three shortwave trofs in
the region...but the overall outcome is breezy with scattered light
rain showers. Have raised POPs over portions of N-central MT this
morning, noting that rainfall amounts will be a few hundredths of
and inch or less. Locations along the Rocky Mtn Front will likely
stay dry due to downslope west winds. Raised the forecast high
temperatures a few degrees and adjusted hourly temps in this area as
those downslope winds have brought temps well above the forecast
minimums. Expect rain shower activity to increase this afternoon
and evening over the N-central plains as the shortwave trof
presently over E WA moves into western MT. Surface pressure rises
behind the departing surface trough will increase west winds
through the evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Several upper level disturbances will move eastward through the
region thru 12z Wednesday. Scattered showers can be expected thru
the period. IFR conditions are possible in/near showers. Mountains
will be obscured thru the period. Some improvement is expected
during the day on Wednesday...but another round or rain/snow will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014/
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  50  40  10  40
CTB  61  38  57  32 /  60  60  10  60
HLN  61  41  59  38 /  60  10  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  60  30  30  10
WEY  50  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  60  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  70  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 301611
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1011 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER A BIT TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND INTO THE NEXT 12 HOURS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGIFIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING. NICE LOOKING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN ND. NOT MUCH QPF IN
OUR AREA IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALTHOUGH THE
BLOOMFIELD AREA DID REPORT 0.18 INCHES IN PAST 24 HOURS. FRANSEN

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE US PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS. A MINOR MESOSCALE
RIDGE SPUR JUTS OVER INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
RUNS DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A MESOSCALE SPUR OF THIS TROUGH RUNS DOWN INTO WYOMING
AND COLORADO. CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA IS CAUGHT IN A TIGHT
DANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. TO THE SOUTH THE INTERFACE HAS
CREATED A LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WRAP MOISTURE UP AROUND IT WHICH WILL FALL INTO A
TROWAL ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER AS RAIN. WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WILL DRY OUT THE AIR TO THE WEST FORMING A SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRECIP AND NONE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BY THE AFTERNOON THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MONTANA AND BEGIN FORMING A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
DOWNSLOPE EVENT. THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MAY ONLY
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF TO THE CWA
OVER NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY... COOL AIR SHOULD STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY
ALLOWING FOR A CLEARING FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE
LONG GONE AND A SYNOPTIC COOL CORE TROUGH PROVIDING THE EXPRESSWAY...
A SECOND MESOSCALE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEAK SPOT DRIVEN
BY AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE OF NOTE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEGATIVE
CELSIUS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND DRY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND IT. DUE TO CHAOS PROCEEDING THE
PREVIOUS TWO SYSTEMS... CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS LOW. BEST
GUESS FOR PASSAGE IS BETWEEN 3 AND 9AM THURSDAY MORNING BUT THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE
CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL PERSIST AT KSDY AND KGDV THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOLF WILL REMAIN AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER
WEST... LOW CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 301611
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1011 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER A BIT TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND INTO THE NEXT 12 HOURS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGIFIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING. NICE LOOKING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN ND. NOT MUCH QPF IN
OUR AREA IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALTHOUGH THE
BLOOMFIELD AREA DID REPORT 0.18 INCHES IN PAST 24 HOURS. FRANSEN

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE US PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS. A MINOR MESOSCALE
RIDGE SPUR JUTS OVER INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
RUNS DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A MESOSCALE SPUR OF THIS TROUGH RUNS DOWN INTO WYOMING
AND COLORADO. CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA IS CAUGHT IN A TIGHT
DANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. TO THE SOUTH THE INTERFACE HAS
CREATED A LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WRAP MOISTURE UP AROUND IT WHICH WILL FALL INTO A
TROWAL ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER AS RAIN. WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WILL DRY OUT THE AIR TO THE WEST FORMING A SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRECIP AND NONE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BY THE AFTERNOON THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MONTANA AND BEGIN FORMING A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
DOWNSLOPE EVENT. THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MAY ONLY
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF TO THE CWA
OVER NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY... COOL AIR SHOULD STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY
ALLOWING FOR A CLEARING FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE
LONG GONE AND A SYNOPTIC COOL CORE TROUGH PROVIDING THE EXPRESSWAY...
A SECOND MESOSCALE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEAK SPOT DRIVEN
BY AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE OF NOTE IN
TEMPERATURES DROPS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEGATIVE
CELSIUS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND DRY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND IT. DUE TO CHAOS PROCEEDING THE
PREVIOUS TWO SYSTEMS... CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING IS LOW. BEST
GUESS FOR PASSAGE IS BETWEEN 3 AND 9AM THURSDAY MORNING BUT THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE
CLIMO AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR
FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL PERSIST AT KSDY AND KGDV THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOLF WILL REMAIN AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER
WEST... LOW CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Several upper level disturbances will move eastward through the
region thru 12z Wednesday. Scattered showers can be expected thru
the period. IFR conditions are possible in/near showers. Mountains
will be obscured thru the period. Some improvement is expected
during the day on Wednesday...but another round or rain/snow will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Several upper level disturbances will move eastward through the
region thru 12z Wednesday. Scattered showers can be expected thru
the period. IFR conditions are possible in/near showers. Mountains
will be obscured thru the period. Some improvement is expected
during the day on Wednesday...but another round or rain/snow will
move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301003
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
403 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY
AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER
COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL
1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND
ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A
CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST
A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS
A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPSLOPE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE
FOG WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS TO
MILES CITY. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 16Z. SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WILL
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 044/059 040/057 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 064 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 067 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 064 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 059 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 059 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/065 041/062
    +/T 73/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 064 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300956
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300956
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300956
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300956
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
356 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A band of showers associated with a surface
trough extended from east of Cut Bank to near Helena at 3 am. This
band will continue moving slowly east but is also expected to
dissipate by around 6 am as the surface trough weakens and downslope
winds develop. An upper trough will move into western Montana this
afternoon and into central Montana late tonight. Still expect mainly
isolated to scattered showers associated with the upper trough.
Showers will be more numerous over the mountains of both the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana into this evening. With snow
levels lowering to 6000 to 7000 feet tonight some mountains above
7000 feet could see from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation.
Precipitation will diminish and sunshine increase Wednesday as the
upper trough moves east and an upper ridge moves in. This upper
ridge will be short-lived as an upper trough from Canada reaches
northern Montana by late Wednesday night and the Dakotas Thursday
afternoon. The associated cold front should reach the Canadian
border by midnight and the northern portions of southwest Montana by
6 am. Models develop good lift aloft with the trough. Meanwhile
the surface cold front and upslope flow behind it will provide lift
at lower levels. Have increased the chances of precipitation quite a
bit from the previous forecast for late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning from the Rocky Mountain Front to central Montana. Snow
levels will be dropping behind the cold front with values ranging
from 3500 to 4000 feet over the U.S. route 2 area to 5500 to 6500
feet over southwest Montana Thursday morning. Mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow
accumulation...mainly late Wednesday night. Mountains of southwest
Montana will see little if any snow accumulation as the main
moisture will stay north of that particular area. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will gradually build over the Northern Rockies from Friday
through Sunday. This will be a weak upper level ridge...but
never the less drier and warmer air should move back into much of
the region. Afternoon highs will be near/slightly above seasonal
normals from Friday through Tuesday. The chances for precipitation
look to be minimal through the weekend...but an isolated shower
will be possible over the Rocky Mountain Front. Early next
week...the GFS tries to break down the ridge quicker than the EC
model. As a result...the GFS has precipitation over the northern
portions of the region...mainly north of Highway 2. For now...I
did introduce some very low pops in this region by Tuesday...but
confidence is low right now in how much precipitation might
actually fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  58  36 /  20  30  10  40
CTB  60  38  57  32 /  60  50  10  60
HLN  60  41  59  38 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  58  35  55  32 /  50  30  30  10
WEY  49  25  47  21 /  60  50  20  10
DLN  56  32  54  31 /  50  10  10  10
HVR  68  42  62  38 /  30  60  10  50
LWT  63  41  56  37 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 300930
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
329 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...More rain is expected today across the breadth of
western Montana and central Idaho, with the most intense rainfall
occurring this morning. Showers will shift east through the
afternoon, alleviating the region from the most persistent and
heaviest of showers. Breezy winds will once again be a feature
this afternoon and evening.

If you were hoping for some sunshine by Wednesday, your chances
are best the further west from the Continental Divide you are.
Showers and the thickest cloud cover remain locked over the
terrain along the Divide through Thursday, with elevations 6500
feet and higher having the potential to pick up light snow
accumulations. Breezy winds and cool temperatures will make this a
raw period to be outdoors, so if you are planning on hunting or
recreating in the backcountry, please plan accordingly.

A ridge of high pressure will begin to strengthen along the west
coast Friday, bringing a warming trend to western Montana and
north central Idaho. Mornings however, will start off quite
chilly, possibly near or even below freezing in many valley
locations. One trend in forecast models over the last few runs is
towards a flatter ridge of high pressure for Friday into Saturday
than previously expected. This may result in continued cloud
cover and possibly even a few showers in the high terrain,
mainly over northwest Montana. Another result will be gusty west
winds area wide, both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Beyond Saturday, there is some disagreement in the forecast
models, with one maintaining the high pressure ridge, while the
other transitions the region back into a cooler and showery
northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread showers are expected this morning across
western Montana and north central Idaho, resulting in low
ceilings and terrain obscurations. The most persistent rain is
expected across northwest Montana, including airfield KGPI. Shower
coverage is expected to decrease late this afternoon and tonight.
Winds are expected to become breezy from the west this afternoon
with gusts up to 30kts possible near ridge tops and 20kts in the
valleys.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 300930
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
329 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...More rain is expected today across the breadth of
western Montana and central Idaho, with the most intense rainfall
occurring this morning. Showers will shift east through the
afternoon, alleviating the region from the most persistent and
heaviest of showers. Breezy winds will once again be a feature
this afternoon and evening.

If you were hoping for some sunshine by Wednesday, your chances
are best the further west from the Continental Divide you are.
Showers and the thickest cloud cover remain locked over the
terrain along the Divide through Thursday, with elevations 6500
feet and higher having the potential to pick up light snow
accumulations. Breezy winds and cool temperatures will make this a
raw period to be outdoors, so if you are planning on hunting or
recreating in the backcountry, please plan accordingly.

A ridge of high pressure will begin to strengthen along the west
coast Friday, bringing a warming trend to western Montana and
north central Idaho. Mornings however, will start off quite
chilly, possibly near or even below freezing in many valley
locations. One trend in forecast models over the last few runs is
towards a flatter ridge of high pressure for Friday into Saturday
than previously expected. This may result in continued cloud
cover and possibly even a few showers in the high terrain,
mainly over northwest Montana. Another result will be gusty west
winds area wide, both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Beyond Saturday, there is some disagreement in the forecast
models, with one maintaining the high pressure ridge, while the
other transitions the region back into a cooler and showery
northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread showers are expected this morning across
western Montana and north central Idaho, resulting in low
ceilings and terrain obscurations. The most persistent rain is
expected across northwest Montana, including airfield KGPI. Shower
coverage is expected to decrease late this afternoon and tonight.
Winds are expected to become breezy from the west this afternoon
with gusts up to 30kts possible near ridge tops and 20kts in the
valleys.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300445
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

No significant changes made to the forecast overnight into early
Tuesday morning. As of 0330Z...area of subtle enhancement on
water vapor imagery over western/southwest Montana superimposed a
slow moving cluster of showers. This area of moisture wrapped
around the large upper-level low that has been moving through the
West over the past few days and is now positioned in central
Montana. Forecast soundings through tonight indicate that the most
saturated layer exists between 700mb-500mb. Showers will be most
likely in the mountains south of a Helena-to-White Sulphur Springs
Line. Chances are lower across the plains/valleys but again
favored areas are over the SW portion of the CWA as an area of 0-1
km convergence pushes from west to east before weakening early
Tuesday morning. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Broad upper level troughing over the NW US will maintain a somewhat
moist and unsettled W/NW flow aloft over the region through Tuesday
evening. First of several embedded weather disturbances will move
across the region tonight with broken mid-level clouds and scattered
showers affecting portions of N-Central and SW MT. Ceilings may
briefly be reduced to MVFR with mountain obscuration at times.
Another disturbance embedded within a somewhat more unstable NW flow
aloft Tuesday afternoon could produce another round of scattered
showers and local MVFR ceilings. Surface winds will become
predominately W or SW at most terminals tonight, shifting to NW late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  40  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  50  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  40  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  10  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 300339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
939 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes made to the forecast overnight into early
Tuesday morning. As of 0330Z...area of subtle enhancement on
water vapor imagery over western/southwest Montana superimposed a
slow moving cluster of showers. This area of moisture wrapped
around the large upper-level low that has been moving through the
West over the past few days and is now positioned in central
Montana. Forecast soundings through tonight indicate that the most
saturated layer exists between 700mb-500mb. Showers will be most
likely in the mountains south of a Helena-to-White Sulphur Springs
Line. Chances are lower across the plains/valleys but again
favored areas are over the SW portion of the CWA as an area of 0-1
km convergence pushes from west to east before weakening early
Tuesday morning. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to circulate
moisture across the region as it lifts N tonight with another upper
level trough moving in from the NW Tuesday afternoon. Areas of
broken mid-level clouds will increase tonight as one of several
disturbances embedded within the upper low moves across the region.
Showers associated with this feature will be light with a brief
period of lower ceilings and mtn obscurations possible later this
evening. A trough of low pressure at the surface, extending from SW
AB southward along the East Slopes of the Rockies will shift East
late tonight through Tuesday morning, allowing surface winds to
become predominately from the W or SW at most terminals. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  40  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  50  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  40  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  10  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
939 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

No significant changes made to the forecast overnight into early
Tuesday morning. As of 0330Z...area of subtle enhancement on
water vapor imagery over western/southwest Montana superimposed a
slow moving cluster of showers. This area of moisture wrapped
around the large upper-level low that has been moving through the
West over the past few days and is now positioned in central
Montana. Forecast soundings through tonight indicate that the most
saturated layer exists between 700mb-500mb. Showers will be most
likely in the mountains south of a Helena-to-White Sulphur Springs
Line. Chances are lower across the plains/valleys but again
favored areas are over the SW portion of the CWA as an area of 0-1
km convergence pushes from west to east before weakening early
Tuesday morning. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to circulate
moisture across the region as it lifts N tonight with another upper
level trough moving in from the NW Tuesday afternoon. Areas of
broken mid-level clouds will increase tonight as one of several
disturbances embedded within the upper low moves across the region.
Showers associated with this feature will be light with a brief
period of lower ceilings and mtn obscurations possible later this
evening. A trough of low pressure at the surface, extending from SW
AB southward along the East Slopes of the Rockies will shift East
late tonight through Tuesday morning, allowing surface winds to
become predominately from the W or SW at most terminals. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  40  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  50  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  40  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  10  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300252
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL INDICATORS SHOW LOTS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMIC PROCESSES
AFFECTING OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 600 AM TOMORROW MORNING AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS RAPID CITY VICINITY AND UP THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS. SO THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS AREA VERY LEGIT. THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE TERMS OF IMPACT. BT

FOR THIS EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE EVENING IN EAST AS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP WILL REACH SE CORNER OF STATE
UNTIL AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HRRR A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON QPF
OVER CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER SO PULLED HIGHER POPS WEST TO THESE
COUNTIES JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM
WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT
THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR
WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPAND. FOG MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD NEARLY
TO KBIL FOR A TIME BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN THERE BY 09 UTC.
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BY
09 UTC AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE KBHK...K4BQ...AND POSSIBLY KMLS AREAS. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    12/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    12/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    88/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300252
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL INDICATORS SHOW LOTS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMIC PROCESSES
AFFECTING OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 600 AM TOMORROW MORNING AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS RAPID CITY VICINITY AND UP THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS. SO THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS AREA VERY LEGIT. THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE TERMS OF IMPACT. BT

FOR THIS EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE EVENING IN EAST AS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP WILL REACH SE CORNER OF STATE
UNTIL AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HRRR A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON QPF
OVER CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER SO PULLED HIGHER POPS WEST TO THESE
COUNTIES JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM
WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT
THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR
WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPAND. FOG MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD NEARLY
TO KBIL FOR A TIME BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN THERE BY 09 UTC.
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BY
09 UTC AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE KBHK...K4BQ...AND POSSIBLY KMLS AREAS. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    12/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    12/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    88/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300212
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
812 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED ON REDUCING POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND QPF TOTALS THROUGH 6AM. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING
ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS THE CWA AND MODEL DO NOT BRING RAIN TO THE
CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHEN HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
FACTORED INTO QPF... THE TOTALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
MORNING WAVE ARE REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY. WINDS AND SKY FIELDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO HELP KEEP TAF FORECASTS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PUBLIC SIDE. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND WET PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH THE
EXIT OF A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND A
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN STATES.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW
OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA TO THE LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED OFF AND ON TODAY WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH...TRANSFERRING MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW
TRAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. PATCHY FOG MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
PRODUCE A DRYING DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ZERO... TENTH OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL
OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THAT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL FAST
NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA AND PUSHING THE MESO-RIDGE OUT. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH/AEC


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST: ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE TEMPS A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS AT THE BOTTOM END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
BLENDS AND SOME OF THE NEW MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BE A TAD BIT
WARMER A A THERMAL RIDGE FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WAA PUSHES
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. FRANSEN

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
PREDOMINATE AT KSDY AND KGDV THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. KOLF
WILL REMAIN AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW CLOUDS BUT
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AFTER 12Z. FURTHER WEST...
LOW CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BRITTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300212
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
812 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED ON REDUCING POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND QPF TOTALS THROUGH 6AM. RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING
ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS THE CWA AND MODEL DO NOT BRING RAIN TO THE
CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHEN HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
FACTORED INTO QPF... THE TOTALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
MORNING WAVE ARE REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY. WINDS AND SKY FIELDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO HELP KEEP TAF FORECASTS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PUBLIC SIDE. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND WET PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH THE
EXIT OF A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND A
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN STATES.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW
OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA TO THE LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED OFF AND ON TODAY WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH...TRANSFERRING MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW
TRAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. PATCHY FOG MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
PRODUCE A DRYING DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ZERO... TENTH OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL
OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THAT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL FAST
NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA AND PUSHING THE MESO-RIDGE OUT. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH/AEC


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST: ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE TEMPS A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS AT THE BOTTOM END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
BLENDS AND SOME OF THE NEW MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BE A TAD BIT
WARMER A A THERMAL RIDGE FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WAA PUSHES
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. FRANSEN

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
PREDOMINATE AT KSDY AND KGDV THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. KOLF
WILL REMAIN AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW CLOUDS BUT
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AFTER 12Z. FURTHER WEST...
LOW CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BRITTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 292345
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will continue to circulate
moisture across the region as it lifts N tonight with another upper
level trough moving in from the NW Tuesday afternoon. Areas of
broken mid-level clouds will increase tonight as one of several
disturbances embedded within the upper low moves across the region.
Showers associated with this feature will be light with a brief
period of lower ceilings and mtn obscurations possible later this
evening. A trough of low pressure at the surface, extending from SW
AB southward along the East Slopes of the Rockies will shift East
late tonight through Tuesday morning, allowing surface winds to
become predominately from the W or SW at most terminals. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  50  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  50  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  60  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  50  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  30  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KMSO 292125
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
325 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure that has been impacting the region
the past few days will continue to keep clouds and cool
temperatures over western Montana and central Idaho at least
through tomorrow. An approaching trough of low pressure will
interact with the low to our south and help kick off a line of
showers this afternoon, starting in central Idaho and move east
into west-central and southwest Montana this evening and
overnight. Most places will see at least 0.10 of an inch of rain,
with some in higher elevations picking up around 0.30 of an inch
of rain.

Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through the day
tomorrow. As the trough deepens over the Northern Rockies
overnight Tuesday, another round of light precipitation is
expected to move in. Some cooler air has the potential to spill
into western Montana with this system allowing for a few snow
showers to develop in the higher elevations above 6500 Feet in the
Bitterroot, Glacier Region, Bob Marshalls, and the
Pintler/Anaconda Ranges. A trace of snow can be expected at 6500
Feet with up to an inch or slightly more above 7200 Feet. If you
are planning on being in the backcountry for the next couple days,
plan accordingly.

Another weak disturbance will brush the Continental Divide early
Thursday, possibly touching off some showers from Glacier NP to
the Bob Marshalls. Elsewhere, a few cool mornings are in store
Thursday and Friday, especially in higher-elevation valleys which
will see freezing temperatures again.

For the weekend and early next week, a weak ridge of high pressure
is expected to build over the Western US. This will bring warmer
afternoon temperatures and cool nights for the Northern Rockies.
Breezy west winds look to continue over the higher elevations.
Certainty is low, but some moisture may be able to round the top
of the ridge causing some mountain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers will be on the increase this afternoon as the
weak front moves through. All aviation terminals will have a
chance to see a shower this evening through tonight. As the
showers move through expect ceilings to lower and area terrain to
be obscured. A stronger front is expected Tuesday afternoon with
more shower activity and gusty winds


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292114
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
314 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COOL AND WET PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH THE
EXIT OF A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND A
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN STATES.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE TROF AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW
OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA TO THE LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED OFF AND ON TODAY WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH...TRANSFERRING MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW
TRAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. PATCHY FOG MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
PRODUCE A DRYING DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ZERO... TENTH OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL
OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THAT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL FAST
NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA AND PUSHING THE MESO-RIDGE OUT. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH/AEC


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST: ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE TEMPS A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS AT THE BOTTOM END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
BLENDS AND SOME OF THE NEW MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BE A TAD BIT
WARMER A A THERMAL RIDGE FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WAA PUSHES
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. FRANSEN

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH KOLF BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. SHOWERS...SOME
MODERATE AT TIMES WILL PICK UP AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z AT KSDY AND
KGDV. KOLF MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BTWN 06Z-12Z.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 292114
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
314 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COOL AND WET PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH THE
EXIT OF A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND A
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN STATES.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE TROF AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW
OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA TO THE LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED OFF AND ON TODAY WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTH...TRANSFERRING MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW
TRAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. PATCHY FOG MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG WITH THE
RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
PRODUCE A DRYING DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ZERO... TENTH OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL
OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THAT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL FAST
NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA AND PUSHING THE MESO-RIDGE OUT. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH/AEC


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST: ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE TEMPS A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS AT THE BOTTOM END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
BLENDS AND SOME OF THE NEW MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BE A TAD BIT
WARMER A A THERMAL RIDGE FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WAA PUSHES
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. FRANSEN

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH KOLF BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. SHOWERS...SOME
MODERATE AT TIMES WILL PICK UP AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z AT KSDY AND
KGDV. KOLF MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BTWN 06Z-12Z.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  50  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  50  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  60  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  50  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  30  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...The longwave upper trof that has
influenced our weather since Saturday is beginning to move
northeast, presently centered over southern Idaho. Light rain
showers associated with an embedded shortwave feature have
dissipated today while drifting northwestward. Skies have turned
partly sunny as this feature splits away from the primary trof.
Afternoon shower development is expected over the southwest with
afternoon heating. Another significant trof over the Pacific
Northwest will pass through the region tonight. This will cause
widespread rain showers but with little total rain accumulation. A
Pacific front associated with this wave will cross the Continental
divide early Tuesday. Westerly wind gusts will strengthen behind
this front on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air moving in behind the
front will lower snow levels Tuesday night to around 6500 feet
MSL. Rain may mix with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on
the higher ridges along the Continental Divide. Up to one inch of
snow may be possible over the Madison and nearby ranges in
Southwest Montana. Skies will clear as drier air and subsidence
arrives behind the trof axis on Wednesday. Nutter

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  62  42  57 /  50  20  20  20
CTB  45  60  38  55 /  50  60  50  20
HLN  47  62  41  59 /  60  20  20  20
BZN  42  59  35  55 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  31  50  24  48 /  50  50  30  20
DLN  41  56  32  54 /  50  40  20  20
HVR  46  67  42  61 /  30  30  40  30
LWT  45  63  40  57 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292047
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST...WHERE PWATS REMAIN NEAR AN
INCH. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD
GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE
UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC
LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE IMPROVING TREND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM KLWT TO
KBIL TO KSHR. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KMLS AND KBHK. CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    68/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292047
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST...WHERE PWATS REMAIN NEAR AN
INCH. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD
GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE
UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC
LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE IMPROVING TREND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM KLWT TO
KBIL TO KSHR. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KMLS AND KBHK. CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    68/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291755
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1147 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291755
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1147 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1747Z.
Still some patchy low clouds/fog lingering on mountain mid-slope
areas. Light showers will continue to lift north through KLWT this
afternoon. Showers will develop this evening over southwest MT
affecting KBZN/KHLN. Wind speeds will increase and turn
southwesterly today...then continue breezy overnight and Tuesday as
a surface low develops over N-central MT. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291607
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1007 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through the period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291607
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1007 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Patchy fog observed this morning appears to be lifting to a broken
low stratus based on surface observations, web cams, and visible
satellite image. Radar depicts a patch of light rain showers
lifting toward the north-northwest through Fergus, Judith Basin,
and eastern Cascade Counties. This activity is associated with an
embedded shortwave rotating through the Great Basin trof. Short
term model guidance supports observed trends for this rain to
dissipate as it moves further north and west. Freshened POPs and
weather to reflect these observations. Meanwhile, surface pressure
falls are noted in southern Alberta and into Glacier county.
Expect this lee surface trof to continue deepening with a
corresponding increase in winds this afternoon. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through the period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  50  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  40  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291536
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH A SURGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ROUND OF PCPN FOR
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER. HAVE
RAISED POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 18Z. SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS 500MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -16C ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. COMBINATION OF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN BREAKS/ SFC
HEATING LATER ON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL IF WE SEE
TEMPS GET TO THE LOW 60S. MIGHT EVEN SEE AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE
MTNS. PCPN IN OUR EAST SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS
THIS INITIAL TROF LIFTS THROUGH...WITH AN INCREASE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONGER ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE
OF ENERGY HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY REACHED SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE
MOVES NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT
NUMEROUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. BOTH LOWS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHOWERS
LIFT NORTH AND WIND TURNS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CHURCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    8/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/T 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    7/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    4/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291536
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH A SURGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ROUND OF PCPN FOR
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER. HAVE
RAISED POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 18Z. SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS 500MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -16C ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. COMBINATION OF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN BREAKS/ SFC
HEATING LATER ON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL IF WE SEE
TEMPS GET TO THE LOW 60S. MIGHT EVEN SEE AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE
MTNS. PCPN IN OUR EAST SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS
THIS INITIAL TROF LIFTS THROUGH...WITH AN INCREASE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONGER ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE
OF ENERGY HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY REACHED SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE
MOVES NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT
NUMEROUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. BOTH LOWS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHOWERS
LIFT NORTH AND WIND TURNS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CHURCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    8/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/T 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    7/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    4/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291536
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH A SURGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ROUND OF PCPN FOR
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER. HAVE
RAISED POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 18Z. SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS 500MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -16C ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. COMBINATION OF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN BREAKS/ SFC
HEATING LATER ON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL IF WE SEE
TEMPS GET TO THE LOW 60S. MIGHT EVEN SEE AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE
MTNS. PCPN IN OUR EAST SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS
THIS INITIAL TROF LIFTS THROUGH...WITH AN INCREASE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONGER ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE
OF ENERGY HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY REACHED SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE
MOVES NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT
NUMEROUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. BOTH LOWS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHOWERS
LIFT NORTH AND WIND TURNS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CHURCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    8/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/T 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    7/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    4/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291536
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH A SURGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ROUND OF PCPN FOR
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER. HAVE
RAISED POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 18Z. SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS 500MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -16C ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. COMBINATION OF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN BREAKS/ SFC
HEATING LATER ON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL IF WE SEE
TEMPS GET TO THE LOW 60S. MIGHT EVEN SEE AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE
MTNS. PCPN IN OUR EAST SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS
THIS INITIAL TROF LIFTS THROUGH...WITH AN INCREASE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONGER ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE
OF ENERGY HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY REACHED SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE
MOVES NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT
NUMEROUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. BOTH LOWS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHOWERS
LIFT NORTH AND WIND TURNS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CHURCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    8/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/T 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    7/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    4/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 291527
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM
SOUTHERN MONTANA HAD MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... CURRENTLY EASTERN
MONTANA IS CAUGHT AT THE SADDLE POINT OF AN EXITING TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST... ENTER TROUGH TO SOUTHWEST... AND EXITING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ENTERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE BEING FED UP THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
STRETCHED OVER A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
PRECIPITATION IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. MEANWHILE
FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COLORADO/WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AND
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL
TRANSFER MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW TRAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE... THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN
EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND PRODUCE A DRYING
DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF ZERO... TENTH
OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND KICK OUT THE MESO-RIDGE. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH KOLF BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. SHOWERS...SOME
MODERATE AT TIMES WILL PICK UP AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z AT KSDY AND
KGDV. KOLF MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BTWN 06Z-12Z.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291527
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM
SOUTHERN MONTANA HAD MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... CURRENTLY EASTERN
MONTANA IS CAUGHT AT THE SADDLE POINT OF AN EXITING TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST... ENTER TROUGH TO SOUTHWEST... AND EXITING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ENTERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE BEING FED UP THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
STRETCHED OVER A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
PRECIPITATION IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. MEANWHILE
FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COLORADO/WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AND
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL
TRANSFER MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW TRAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE... THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN
EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND PRODUCE A DRYING
DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF ZERO... TENTH
OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND KICK OUT THE MESO-RIDGE. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. CEILINGS AT KGGW WILL
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH KOLF BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. SHOWERS...SOME
MODERATE AT TIMES WILL PICK UP AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z AT KSDY AND
KGDV. KOLF MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BTWN 06Z-12Z.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 291143
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation section update

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through th period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291143
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Aviation section update

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow
will mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in
the Cut Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less
than 1/2 inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all.
After this disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather
conditions are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday
afternoon and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will
try to set up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to
move through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be
a chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies
and north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s
for Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on
Saturday. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in
the lower to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
Widespread low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected over
the region through th period. Mountains will be obscured. Light rain
showers will affect areas mainly east of a Havre to Helena line
today. Expect the steady rain to diminish around 00Z Tue...with
scattered showers over much of the region during the overnight
hours. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290955
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY REACHED
SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT NUMEROUS...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    6/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290955
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY REACHED
SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT NUMEROUS...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    6/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290955
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY REACHED
SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT NUMEROUS...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    6/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290955
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY REACHED
SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT NUMEROUS...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    6/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow will
mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in the Cut
Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less than 1/2
inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all. After this
disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather conditions
are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday afternoon
and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will try to set
up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to move
through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be a
chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies and
north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s for
Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on Saturday.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in the lower
to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV/UT
will lift NE across the ID/WY late tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning, becoming southwesterly Monday
afternoon and evening. Low clouds and mtn/terrain obscuration will
persist through much of tonight though precipitation will be light
and mainly limited to SW MT. Potential exists for fog at most
terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The main message for the first part of the
week is cool and unsettled weather. For early this morning small
temperature-dew point spreads should result in patchy fog. Still do
not have much confidence as to which areas will be favored for
this fog. Otherwise today an upper low over the Great Basin will
move into southwest Montana this afternoon. A weather disturbance
aloft ahead of the upper low will affect eastern Montana.
Therefore the main chances for showers today will be over
southwest Montana and also near and east of a line from Havre to
Great Falls. Then overnight moisture along with the chance for
showers will increase from the west ahead of an upper trough which
will move into the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of this upper
trough then move into the forecast area Tuesday with another upper
trough to follow Tuesday night. The troughs will result in
isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Tuesday night upper trough will shift into eastern Montana
Wednesday as a temporary upper ridge moves into western Montana.
The ridge will bring increased sunshine and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday afternoon and additionally westerly winds to the east
slopes. Just how strong these westerly winds will be is in
question as the NAM model forecasts near high winds for the Rocky
Mountain Front Wednesday afternoon while the GFS model is much
lighter with wind speeds. For this forecast have gone in between
the two extremes. Blank

Wednesday night through Monday...It will continue to remain a bit
unsettled over the region through Thursday...as an upper level
disturbance moves southward through the region. Even though showers
will accompany this disturbance...the precipitation amounts will be
light...generally less than 0.10 inches and mostly over North
Central MT. The air mass continues to look cold enough that snow will
mix in with the rain in the mountains and over the Plains in the Cut
Bank area. But since any snowfall amounts should be less than 1/2
inch...any impacts are expected to be minimal/if at all. After this
disturbance moves through...fairly quiet and nice weather conditions
are expected for Friday thru Sunday morning. For Sunday afternoon
and Monday...an unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will try to set
up once again...allowing for weak weather disturbances to move
through the northern portion of the region. Thus there will be a
chance for showers once again...mainly over the northern Rockies and
north of Highway 2 for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures will be in the 50s Thursday...then in the 60s for
Friday through Monday...with a few lower 70s possible on Saturday.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in the lower
to mid 60s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over NV/UT
will lift NE across the ID/WY late tonight through Monday,
maintaining a relatively moist Southeasterly flow aloft over the
region through Monday morning, becoming southwesterly Monday
afternoon and evening. Low clouds and mtn/terrain obscuration will
persist through much of tonight though precipitation will be light
and mainly limited to SW MT. Potential exists for fog at most
terminals tonight as low levels remain very moist, however
confidence in extent and density is low as cloud-cover in mid-levels
will remain intact. Ceilings should improve Monday morning as the
upper level system weakens and some drier begins to entrain into the
flow aloft over the region. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  50  61  41 /  20  30  20  20
CTB  66  44  58  37 /  10  30  50  30
HLN  66  47  61  40 /  20  30  20  20
BZN  62  42  60  34 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  53  32  51  24 /  40  40  60  30
DLN  63  41  58  32 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  64  45  66  42 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  60  45  63  39 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290939
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... CURRENTLY EASTERN MONTANA IS CAUGHT AT THE
SADDLE POINT OF AN EXITING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST... ENTER TROUGH
TO SOUTHWEST... AND EXITING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENTERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING FED UP THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRETCHED OVER A DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA PRECIPITATION IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL PERIODS. MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COLORADO/WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AND
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL
TRANSFER MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW TRAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE... THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN
EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND PRODUCE A DRYING
DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF ZERO... TENTH
OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND KICK OUT THE MESO-RIDGE. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT KSDY
AND KGDV.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 290939
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... CURRENTLY EASTERN MONTANA IS CAUGHT AT THE
SADDLE POINT OF AN EXITING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST... ENTER TROUGH
TO SOUTHWEST... AND EXITING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENTERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING FED UP THROUGH
THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND STRETCHED OVER A DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA PRECIPITATION IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL PERIODS. MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COLORADO/WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AND
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL
TRANSFER MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MONTANA AND SLOWLY MORPH IT INTO A TROWAL AS THE LOW TRAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE... THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN
EXERTING INFLUENCE BY THE EVENING HOURS AND PRODUCE A DRYING
DOWNSLOPE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN RAINFALL TOTALS OF ZERO... TENTH
OF AN INCH... AND INCH OF QPF THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND KICK OUT THE MESO-RIDGE. A SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH MOST OF
THE STABILITY COOLING ALREADY HAVING TAKEN PLACE FROM THE FIRST
WAVE OF SHOWERS. GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO ABOVE CLIMO
AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROF. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST. HOW LONG THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE REMAIN IS ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS THEY DROP OUT OF CANADA. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT KSDY
AND KGDV.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 290937
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
337 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...The same pesky low pressure system that has kept
gloomy skies and cool temps over the weekend continues to
circulate over the region with little movement eastward. This will
keep western Montana and portions of Idaho under its influence
today and Tuesday. Rainfall will overspread much of western
Montana through the day today. This, coupled with persistent cool
temps and plenty of cloud cover, will cause another dreary
looking day for the Northern Rockies.

The good news is, this system is expected to finally shift far
enough eastward to bring an end to the showers. The region will
stay in unsettled northwesterly flow through Wednesday, keeping
just a few stray showers along the Divide while most other areas
begin a drying trend.

Forecast models continue to show a weak disturbance in northwest
flow passing along the Continental Divide Thursday. This may
result in continued showers and cloud cover, especially across
northwest Montana. Locations that are able to get some clearing
Thursday and Friday mornings will likely see a chilly start,
with below freezing temperatures not out of the question,
especially for higher elevation valleys.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to strengthen along the west
coast, bringing a warming and drying trend for western Montana
and north central Idaho Friday into the weekend. Temperatures
above seasonal normals can be expected.


&&

.AVIATION...Mid level clouds will continue to obscure the higher
terrain at times this morning across western Montana and north
central Idaho. A lull in shower activity is expected this morning
before the next spoke of moisture makes its way into the region
this afternoon and evening. This next wave will again cause
widespread showers with lowering ceilings and locally lowered
visibility. Light east to southeast winds this morning are
expected to transition around to a westerly direction this
afternoon and could become gusty at times, especially near ridge
top level.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 290937
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
337 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...The same pesky low pressure system that has kept
gloomy skies and cool temps over the weekend continues to
circulate over the region with little movement eastward. This will
keep western Montana and portions of Idaho under its influence
today and Tuesday. Rainfall will overspread much of western
Montana through the day today. This, coupled with persistent cool
temps and plenty of cloud cover, will cause another dreary
looking day for the Northern Rockies.

The good news is, this system is expected to finally shift far
enough eastward to bring an end to the showers. The region will
stay in unsettled northwesterly flow through Wednesday, keeping
just a few stray showers along the Divide while most other areas
begin a drying trend.

Forecast models continue to show a weak disturbance in northwest
flow passing along the Continental Divide Thursday. This may
result in continued showers and cloud cover, especially across
northwest Montana. Locations that are able to get some clearing
Thursday and Friday mornings will likely see a chilly start,
with below freezing temperatures not out of the question,
especially for higher elevation valleys.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to strengthen along the west
coast, bringing a warming and drying trend for western Montana
and north central Idaho Friday into the weekend. Temperatures
above seasonal normals can be expected.


&&

.AVIATION...Mid level clouds will continue to obscure the higher
terrain at times this morning across western Montana and north
central Idaho. A lull in shower activity is expected this morning
before the next spoke of moisture makes its way into the region
this afternoon and evening. This next wave will again cause
widespread showers with lowering ceilings and locally lowered
visibility. Light east to southeast winds this morning are
expected to transition around to a westerly direction this
afternoon and could become gusty at times, especially near ridge
top level.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





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