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000
FXUS65 KTFX 301716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is generally on track. A strong upper ridge will
keep the forecast area dry today. Satellite imagery is indicating
cloudy skies over sw MT so have increased sky cover for the
remainder of the morning in that area. Clouds will also be
increasing over the east slopes this afternoon but am getting
conflicting guidance from the models as to whether the sky
condition will be cloudy or partly cloudy. Decided to go with
partly cloudy skies which is an increase from the sunny skies in
the earlier forecast. The Havre area is reporting fog so the
forecast of same for that area looks fine. Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
VFR conditions are likely with cigs above 15000 ft. Winds will be
light but expect gusty southeast winds 15 to 25 mph over the eastern
plains through tonight before winds there diminish Friday morning.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

Today through Saturday...The short term period will be marked by
warm and generally quiet weather today and Friday before a
transition to more active weather begins on Saturday. Early this
morning there is a chance for some low level clouds and possible
areas of fog in my far northeastern zones. However, An upper
level ridge will gradually build in strength as it slowly
progresses across Montana today with westerly surface winds and
warming temperatures dissipating morning fog. Only variable mid to
high level clouds are expected this afternoon through Halloween
night with temperatures warming to near record highs in many
locations Friday afternoon. Saturday marks a transition day as a
significant upper level trough moves inland along the entire west
coast of the USA. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main
trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance for precipitation
across western portions of the forecast area. More importantly, a
surface low pressure system develops across southern Montana by
late Saturday afternoon with surface winds across north central
Montana becoming northerly allowing cooler Canadian air to begin
spilling into the region. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...A low pressure system begins to
move inland over the west coast Saturday bringing moisture and
chances for showers to the Continental Divide by Saturday night.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana Sunday,
lasting into early Monday for some places. Cold air associated with
this system looks to bring widespread chances of snowfall over
Central Montana Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall in the mountains
may be of significant accumulation. The system moves quick, exiting
east Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be seen over the
mountains. High pressure transits over the region Tuesday night
before unsettled westerly flow brings a chance of precipitation back
to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 40s Sunday and Monday before warming back to near 60
by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
below freezing in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  55  36  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  62  39  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  60  33  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  50  24  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  59  37  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  59  39  71  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301557
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
957 AM MDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is generally on track. A strong upper ridge will
keep the forecast area dry today. Satellite imagery is indicating
cloudy skies over sw MT so have increased sky cover for the
remainder of the morning in that area. Clouds will also be
increasing over the east slopes this afternoon but am getting
conflicting guidance from the models as to whether the sky
condition will be cloudy or partly cloudy. Decided to go with
partly cloudy skies which is an increase from the sunny skies in
the earlier forecast. The Havre area is reporting fog so the
forecast of same for that area looks fine. Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure builds. Mid/high level
ceilings expected with light winds overall.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

Today through Saturday...The short term period will be marked by
warm and generally quiet weather today and Friday before a
transition to more active weather begins on Saturday. Early this
morning there is a chance for some low level clouds and possible
areas of fog in my far northeastern zones. However, An upper
level ridge will gradually build in strength as it slowly
progresses across Montana today with westerly surface winds and
warming temperatures dissipating morning fog. Only variable mid to
high level clouds are expected this afternoon through Halloween
night with temperatures warming to near record highs in many
locations Friday afternoon. Saturday marks a transition day as a
significant upper level trough moves inland along the entire west
coast of the USA. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main
trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance for precipitation
across western portions of the forecast area. More importantly, a
surface low pressure system develops across southern Montana by
late Saturday afternoon with surface winds across north central
Montana becoming northerly allowing cooler Canadian air to begin
spilling into the region. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...A low pressure system begins to
move inland over the west coast Saturday bringing moisture and
chances for showers to the Continental Divide by Saturday night.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana Sunday,
lasting into early Monday for some places. Cold air associated with
this system looks to bring widespread chances of snowfall over
Central Montana Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall in the mountains
may be of significant accumulation. The system moves quick, exiting
east Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be seen over the
mountains. High pressure transits over the region Tuesday night
before unsettled westerly flow brings a chance of precipitation back
to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 40s Sunday and Monday before warming back to near 60
by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
below freezing in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  55  36  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  62  39  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  60  33  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  50  24  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  59  37  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  59  39  71  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 301527
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST HANDLING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WELL...BUT SOME OF
THE MESO-MODELS SHOWING THAT IT MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...SO
EXTENDED THEM IN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE POOR WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LOW LAPSE RATES...GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
WINDS ABOVE LAKE WIND CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.

RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST. PRELIMINARY WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA...EASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SENDING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AHEAD OF LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
ENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT TO INITIATE A
PATTERN CHANGE. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A WET AND COLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD ARCTIC AIR GETS WRAPPED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15F DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
FURTHER ON MONDAY. READJUSTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES NOW ARE SHOWING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AND MAY NEED A WATCH WHEN IT SHIFTS INTO THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEMONT EASTERLY WIND WILL
BACK TO THE NORTH AND RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND
HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

SATELLITE IR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG/MIST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURNING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY TO
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT. SCT/BLM

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301500
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING ITS WAY INTO OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
AND STRATUS INTO THE BAKER AND EKALAKA AREAS. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS
IS SLOWING WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS CARTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN A COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL. ONLY CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
MORNINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER MAKING FOR A PLEASANT DAY FOR MOST AREAS. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WERE
GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. EVENING CREW ADDED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM EAST OF MILES
CITY TO AROUND EKALAKA. RAPID REFRESH MODEL DOES SURGE THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THIS AREA AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK...AT
LEAST LOOKING AT THE FOG PRODUCT...BUT STILL LIKE THE TREND OF
THIS STRATUS MOVING IN BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRR FORECAST.
RAPID REFRESH LIFTS THE STRATUS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD TO
SEASONAL LEVELS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN EAST AND LIMIT MIXING. THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...WILL GET PUSHED
EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BY A WESTERN TROUGH MOVING INLAND. A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A 40KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE TROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER CARTER AND
FALLON COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. TWH


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL COME
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

A VERY MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL MAKE ITS WAY AROUND A LONG
WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
VERTICAL MOTION TO BRING PRECIP TO SC AND SE MONTANA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE 850 0 DEGREE C LINE TO BE NORTH OF THE BYZ CWA. BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT A WINTRY MIX ON HILLTOPS AND THE LIKE IN SE
MONTANA WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MEANWHILE...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN
BOTH THE BIG HORN AND BEARTOOTH RANGES. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.

BEING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...THIS PART OF THE REGION HAS
TYPICALLY ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF COLDER
WEATHER AND AN OCCASIONAL BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT THIS
YEAR IS A BIT DIFFERENT...SO THE LOWER DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MID
50S...WILL APPEAR TO BE ABRUPT AFTER A NICER DAY ON SATURDAY. BUT
HAVE NO FEAR...OUR MILD AUTUMN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. SINGER

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL ROUTES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING
AROUND IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...INCLUDING KBHK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AS
WELL THROUGH TODAY...BUT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECT
OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN ROUTES...INCLUDING KBHK AND KMLS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 039/068 043/067 039/047 033/054 032/059 037/060
    0/U 00/U    00/B    66/W    42/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 058 036/068 041/067 038/045 028/048 026/051 036/057
    0/B 00/B    00/B    98/W    42/W    11/N    11/B
HDN 059 037/069 037/070 034/051 028/055 025/062 031/062
    0/U 00/U    00/B    44/W    42/W    11/U    11/U
MLS 050 033/061 034/066 036/048 029/049 026/059 034/058
    0/B 00/N    00/U    33/W    52/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 055 033/060 036/070 039/049 031/049 027/060 035/060
    0/U 00/N    00/B    23/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
BHK 044 028/049 031/063 035/047 028/042 024/056 031/056
    0/B 00/N    00/U    12/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
SHR 057 035/069 038/073 036/052 028/053 021/062 028/062
    0/U 00/B    00/B    34/W    42/W    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301201
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...The short term period will be marked by
warm and generally quiet weather today and Friday before a
transition to more active weather begins on Saturday. Early this
morning there is a chance for some low level clouds and possible
areas of fog in my far northeastern zones. However, An upper
level ridge will gradually build in strength as it slowly
progresses across Montana today with westerly surface winds and
warming temperatures dissipating morning fog. Only variable mid to
high level clouds are expected this afternoon through Halloween
night with temperatures warming to near record highs in many
locations Friday afternoon. Saturday marks a transition day as a
significant upper level trough moves inland along the entire west
coast of the USA. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main
trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance for precipitation
across western portions of the forecast area. More importantly, a
surface low pressure system develops across southern Montana by
late Saturday afternoon with surface winds across north central
Montana becoming northerly allowing cooler Canadian air to begin
spilling into the region. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...A low pressure system begins to
move inland over the west coast Saturday bringing moisture and
chances for showers to the Continental Divide by Saturday night.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana Sunday,
lasting into early Monday for some places. Cold air associated with
this system looks to bring widespread chances of snowfall over
Central Montana Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall in the mountains
may be of significant accumulation. The system moves quick, exiting
east Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be seen over the
mountains. High pressure transits over the region Tuesday night
before unsettled westerly flow brings a chance of precipitation back
to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 40s Sunday and Monday before warming back to near 60
by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
below freezing in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure builds. Mid/high level
ceilings expected with light winds overall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  55  36  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  62  39  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  60  33  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  50  24  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  59  37  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  59  39  71  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





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000
FXUS65 KMSO 301015
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

...Significant Snow Possible on Mountain Passes This Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...A weather disturbance late Friday and into the
weekend will bring wet weather and colder conditions to the
Northern Rockies. There is a possibility of significant mountain
and higher-elevation valley snow and perhaps a wintry mix to the
lower valleys.

Expecting a foggy start to the day for most valleys as a moist
airmass lingers in the region and weak inversions develop. A moist
Pacific system will spread wet weather across the Pacific NW
today; however, forecast models indicate it will mostly remain to
our west, with with the chance of rain limited to far northwest
Montana. Elsewhere, mid-slope temperatures should warm as a warmer
airmass moves in from the south, but valleys may not see much of a
warm-up with inversions struggling to break given the time of year
and cloudy skies. More valley fog is likely tonight with a
continued moist boundary layer and a bit of clearing overnight.

For Halloween, expect a warmer day in general as a warmer airmass
moves in and some southerly breezes allow for a bit more mixing.
Clouds will increase by the afternoon meanwhile as another
weather disturbance approaches the area. Central Idaho and
northwest Montana will probably see light rain in time for trick-
or-treating, while the Kalispell- Missoula- Salmon corridor and
eastward should remain dry through at the least the evening hours.

A significant weather system is forecast to impact much of the
Northern Rockies this weekend, bringing with it heavy snow above
5000ft and perhaps a mix of rain and snow as low as 3500ft.
Locations across southwest Montana (i.e Butte, Georgetown Lake,
Lost Trail/Homestake/MacDonald/Skalkaho Passes), west central
Montana (Lolo Pass & Seeley Lake) and north central Idaho (i.e
Dixie, Gilmore Summit & Bannock Pass) still appear to be the most
significantly impacted by heavy snowfall amounts between 4 and 10
inches (up to 18 inches in the backcountry) starting Saturday
morning and continuing into Sunday afternoon. The latest weather
models are maintaining a fairly consistent path and timing to the
system with perhaps a slight trend towards a slower, more westerly
solution. This actually lends increased confidence in the forecast
of snow across the Bitterroot, Mission and Swan Mountain Ranges as
well as a greater likelihood for rather wet conditions for many
western Montana valleys below 5000ft this weekend. It also
maintains already high confidence in the snowfall potential for
southwest Montana.

The snow level is expected to drop Saturday night as the low
exits into North Central Montana and fall to around 3500ft
(perhaps lower) by Sunday morning. Any accumulation at these lower
elevations is still expected to be very light and pose minimal
impacts. Precipitation should decrease through the afternoon and
Sunday evening for all but the Seeley/Swan/Glacier National Park
areas and largely be finished by Monday morning.

An active pattern looks to continue into next week, with
occasional rounds of wet weather under westerly flow aloft. The
best chance of precipitation will be those areas favored under
westerly flow, such as the Cabinet Range and other ranges of
northwest Montana, as well as most of central Idaho. Snow levels
are expected to rise above pass level through this period,
limiting the winter impacts to the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...Moist conditions in the valleys will lead to patchy
fog and low clouds, causing reduced visibilities and periodic low
ceilings at KMSO and KGPI through mid-morning. Conditions should
begin to slowly improve around mid-morning. Elsewhere, mostly
cloudy skies will continue with light winds.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300953
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
353 AM MDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...The short term period will be marked by
warm and generally quiet weather today and Friday before a
transition to more active weather begins on Saturday. Early this
morning there is a chance for some low level clouds and possible
areas of fog in my far northeastern zones. However, An upper
level ridge will gradually build in strength as it slowly
progresses across Montana today with westerly surface winds and
warming temperatures dissipating morning fog. Only variable mid to
high level clouds are expected this afternoon through Halloween
night with temperatures warming to near record highs in many
locations Friday afternoon. Saturday marks a transition day as a
significant upper level trough moves inland along the entire west
coast of the USA. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main
trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance for precipitation
across western portions of the forecast area. More importantly, a
surface low pressure system develops across southern Montana by
late Saturday afternoon with surface winds across north central
Montana becoming northerly allowing cooler Canadian air to begin
spilling into the region. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...A low pressure system begins to
move inland over the west coast Saturday bringing moisture and
chances for showers to the Continental Divide by Saturday night.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana Sunday,
lasting into early Monday for some places. Cold air associated with
this system looks to bring widespread chances of snowfall over
Central Montana Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall in the mountains
may be of significant accumulation. The system moves quick, exiting
east Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be seen over the
mountains. High pressure transits over the region Tuesday night
before unsettled westerly flow brings a chance of precipitation back
to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 40s Sunday and Monday before warming back to near 60
by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
below freezing in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Friday. Other than some
passing mid/high level clouds...no precip is expected through the
period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  55  36  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  62  39  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  60  33  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  50  24  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  59  37  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  51  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  59  39  71  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300953
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
353 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE POOR WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LOW LAPSE RATES...GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
WINDS ABOVE LAKE WIND CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.

RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST. PRELIMINARY WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA...EASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SENDING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AHEAD OF LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
ENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT TO INITIATE A
PATTERN CHANGE. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A WET AND COLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD ARCTIC AIR GETS WRAPPED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15F DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
FURTHER ON MONDAY. READJUSTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES NOW ARE SHOWING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AND MAY NEED A WATCH WHEN IT SHIFTS INTO THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEMONT EASTERLY WIND WILL
BACK TO THE NORTH AND RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND
HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

SATELLITE IR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG/MIST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THAT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WIND TODAY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WERE
GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. EVENING CREW ADDED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM EAST OF MILES
CITY TO AROUND EKALAKA. RAPID REFRESH MODEL DOES SURGE THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THIS AREA AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK...AT
LEAST LOOKING AT THE FOG PRODUCT...BUT STILL LIKE THE TREND OF
THIS STRATUS MOVING IN BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRR FORECAST.
RAPID REFRESH LIFTS THE STRATUS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD TO
SEASONAL LEVELS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN EAST AND LIMIT MIXING. THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...WILL GET PUSHED
EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BY A WESTERN TROUGH MOVING INLAND. A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A 40KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE TROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER CARTER AND
FALLON COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL COME
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

A VERY MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL MAKE ITS WAY AROUND A LONG
WAVE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
VERTICAL MOTION TO BRING PRECIP TO SC AND SE MONTANA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE 850 0 DEGREE C LINE TO BE NORTH OF THE BYZ CWA. BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT A WINTRY MIX ON HILLTOPS AND THE LIKE IN SE
MONTANA WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MEANWHILE...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN
BOTH THE BIG HORN AND BEARTOOTH RANGES. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL.

BEING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...THIS PART OF THE REGION HAS
TYPICALLY ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF COLDER
WEATHER AND AN OCCASIONAL BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT THIS
YEAR IS A BIT DIFFERENT...SO THE LOWER DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO MID
50S...WILL APPEAR TO BE ABRUPT AFTER A NICER DAY ON SATURDAY. BUT
HAVE NO FEAR...OUR MILD AUTUMN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS. SINGER

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG NEAR KMLS THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR AVIATION
IMPACTS SHOULD BE FELT. SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 039/068 043/067 039/047 033/054 032/059 037/060
    0/U 00/U    00/B    66/W    42/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 058 036/068 041/067 038/045 028/048 026/051 036/057
    0/U 00/B    00/B    98/W    42/W    11/N    11/B
HDN 059 037/069 037/070 034/051 028/055 025/062 031/062
    0/U 00/U    00/B    44/W    42/W    11/U    11/U
MLS 050 033/061 034/066 036/048 029/049 026/059 034/058
    0/B 00/N    00/U    33/W    52/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 055 033/060 036/070 039/049 031/049 027/060 035/060
    0/U 00/N    00/B    23/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
BHK 044 028/049 031/063 035/047 028/042 024/056 031/056
    0/B 00/N    00/U    12/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
SHR 057 035/069 038/073 036/052 028/053 021/062 028/062
    0/U 00/B    00/B    34/W    42/W    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover continuing to dissipate
across the region, except for lingering mostly cloudy conditions
along the Rocky Mtn Front.  Also watching some low stratus clouds
over southwest corner of Saskatchewan that may work their way into
parts of northern Blaine County overnight.  But rest of the forecast
area will see mostly clear skies tonight, which will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.  Going forecast in
good shape; only notable tweak was to add patchy fog overnight into
Thurs morning for the Milk River valley.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Friday. Other than some
passing mid/high level clouds...no precip is expected through the
period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover continuing to dissipate
across the region, except for lingering mostly cloudy conditions
along the Rocky Mtn Front.  Also watching some low stratus clouds
over southwest corner of Saskatchewan that may work their way into
parts of northern Blaine County overnight.  But rest of the forecast
area will see mostly clear skies tonight, which will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.  Going forecast in
good shape; only notable tweak was to add patchy fog overnight into
Thurs morning for the Milk River valley.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Friday. Other than some
passing mid/high level clouds...no precip is expected through the
period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover continuing to dissipate
across the region, except for lingering mostly cloudy conditions
along the Rocky Mtn Front.  Also watching some low stratus clouds
over southwest corner of Saskatchewan that may work their way into
parts of northern Blaine County overnight.  But rest of the forecast
area will see mostly clear skies tonight, which will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.  Going forecast in
good shape; only notable tweak was to add patchy fog overnight into
Thurs morning for the Milk River valley.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Friday. Other than some
passing mid/high level clouds...no precip is expected through the
period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover continuing to dissipate
across the region, except for lingering mostly cloudy conditions
along the Rocky Mtn Front.  Also watching some low stratus clouds
over southwest corner of Saskatchewan that may work their way into
parts of northern Blaine County overnight.  But rest of the forecast
area will see mostly clear skies tonight, which will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.  Going forecast in
good shape; only notable tweak was to add patchy fog overnight into
Thurs morning for the Milk River valley.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Friday. Other than some
passing mid/high level clouds...no precip is expected through the
period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300310
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover continuing to dissipate
across the region, except for lingering mostly cloudy conditions
along the Rocky Mtn Front.  Also watching some low stratus clouds
over southwest corner of Saskatchewan that may work their way into
parts of northern Blaine County overnight.  But rest of the forecast
area will see mostly clear skies tonight, which will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.  Going forecast in
good shape; only notable tweak was to add patchy fog overnight into
Thurs morning for the Milk River valley.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A few light sprinkles will affect Central/North Central MT through
02z...otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Fri. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KGGW 300206
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
806 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. BIGGEST CHANGE
FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO BETTER ACCOUNT
FOR THE APPROACHING STRATUS DECK FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE THE
ONLY OTHER TWEAK WORTH NOTING WAS TO EXPAND MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
WITH THE STRATUS DECK LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IN
IT/S WAKE...ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME A LITTLE UNSTABLE AND WEST WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. DRIFTING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES...A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS AND FLURRIES DEEPER IN THE COLDER AIR (OVER THE NE ZONES).

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES AS THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BUCKLES AND NORTHERLY FLOW FORMS
ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF A BUILDING NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS HIGH
WILL PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AS TEMPS WILL COOL ABOUT 15
DEGREES UNDER TODAY/S READINGS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL TIGHTEN AND THUS
INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE FOCUSED ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
NIGHT WERE SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY RESIDES IN THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. JET STREAMS ARE BEING FLAKY AND CHANGING
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIODS. PARTIALLY COMPENSATED FOR THIS BY DOING A BLEND OF
GFS/CMC/ECMWF/DGEX QPF FOR ANY PARTICULAR 6 HOUR PERIOD. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HIT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER THAT. ADIABATIC PROCESSES MAY PRODUCES SNOW EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE MODELS AS CURRENT SNOW LEVEL OPTIONS SEEM
TOO HIGH TO REACH THE SURFACE. HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO REDUCE
RADIATIVE COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR SOME AREAS.
GAH
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG- WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR THROUGH 06Z. MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AFTER.

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE MT/ND/SK TRIPLE
POINT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. THIS LINE OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

VISIBILITY: MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
VISIBILITY DROPS AT THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING CLOUD DECK
INTERFACE. AS THE CLOUD DECK MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS AND TO THE
SOUTH CEILINGS SHOULD SHOULD RISE AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY.

AREA WINDS: 10 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST... CALMING AFTER
SUNDOWN TO LESS AND 10 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300204
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
804 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN CANADA
WILL BE TAPPED INTO BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUD NEARING FAR NORTHEAST MT AS OF 8PM.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIR HANDLING OF THE STRATUS...AS DOES
THE NAM...SO EXPECT IT TO REACH BAKER AROUND 10Z AND MILES CITY
12Z. CANADIAN OBS SHOW CIGS IN THE HUNDREDS OF FEET AGL...SO THE
HIGHER HILLS OF OUR EAST WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED BY EARLY
TOMORROW. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG AND RAISED SKY COVER IN OUR EAST
BEGINNING AT 09Z...SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD FORSYTH/BROADUS BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT
SINCE SUNSET...AND ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LONG SINCE ENDED
AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. TWEAKED WINDS/POPS TO FIT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

MIXED AIRMASS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW WITH EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES COLDER OUT THERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS MOVING INTO THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SUPPORTS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. FOR CENTRAL ZONES WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND SOUTHERLY
WHICH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. FOR HALLOWEEN
EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH THE ONLY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOUND IN MILES CITY...BAKER...EKALAKA AND
BROADUS JUST BECAUSE OF WINDY CONDITIONS. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST EXTENDED MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN SOMEWHAT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS THOUGH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY IN BRINGING AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL
BE SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BRINGING A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL BE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER BY THIS TIME WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH. THE GFS KEEPS
THE TROUGH MORE OPEN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EJECTS IT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...QPF DIFFERS IN AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT AS THE
GFS IS MORE SCATTERED WITH THE PRECIP BUT THE ECMWF IS MORE
WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES DIFFER AS WELL WITH THE GFS MAINLY
STAYING ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE 0C LINE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX FOR THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND
MOUNTAINS.

THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGING
BUILDING ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW STATUS
AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST ROUTES...INCLUDING KMLS
AND KBHK...AND THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/057 037/066 042/065 037/047 033/047 033/056 039/060
    00/U    00/U    00/B    44/W    32/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 033/058 036/069 042/065 034/044 028/047 033/051 036/057
    00/U    00/U    00/B    66/W    32/W    11/N    11/B
HDN 033/059 034/066 036/069 034/048 030/049 028/058 034/061
    00/U    00/U    00/B    34/W    42/W    11/U    11/U
MLS 032/050 031/059 034/065 034/047 029/049 028/056 034/058
    00/B    00/B    00/U    33/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 035/054 033/060 037/068 037/049 031/050 031/058 034/059
    00/U    00/N    00/B    23/W    32/W    11/U    11/B
BHK 030/044 028/047 030/061 035/046 028/045 027/054 031/056
    00/B    00/N    00/U    12/W    32/W    11/U    11/B
SHR 030/057 032/068 036/071 033/048 028/050 024/055 030/060
    00/U    00/U    00/B    34/W    32/W    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292335
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A few light sprinkles will affect Central/North Central MT through
02z...otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Fri. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292137
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

MIXED AIRMASS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW WITH EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES COLDER OUT THERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS MOVING INTO THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SUPPORTS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. FOR CENTRAL ZONES WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND SOUTHERLY
WHICH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. FOR HALLOWEEN
EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH THE ONLY
ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOUND IN MILES CITY...BAKER...EKALAKA AND
BROADUS JUST BECAUSE OF WINDY CONDITIONS. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST EXTENDED MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN SOMEWHAT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS THOUGH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY IN BRINGING AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA RESULTING IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL
BE SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BRINGING A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL BE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER BY THIS TIME WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH. THE GFS KEEPS
THE TROUGH MORE OPEN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EJECTS IT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...QPF DIFFERS IN AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT AS THE
GFS IS MORE SCATTERED WITH THE PRECIP BUT THE ECMWF IS MORE
WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES DIFFER AS WELL WITH THE GFS MAINLY
STAYING ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE 0C LINE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX FOR THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND
MOUNTAINS.

THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGING
BUILDING ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AND
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...NO
AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/057 037/066 042/065 037/047 033/047 033/056 039/060
    00/U    00/U    00/B    44/W    32/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 033/058 036/069 042/065 034/044 028/047 033/051 036/057
    00/U    00/U    00/B    66/W    32/W    11/N    11/B
HDN 033/059 034/066 036/069 034/048 030/049 028/058 034/061
    00/U    00/U    00/B    34/W    42/W    11/U    11/U
MLS 032/050 031/059 034/065 034/047 029/049 028/056 034/058
    00/U    00/B    00/U    33/W    42/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 035/054 033/060 037/068 037/049 031/050 031/058 034/059
    00/U    00/N    00/B    23/W    32/W    11/U    11/B
BHK 031/044 028/047 030/061 035/046 028/045 027/054 031/056
    00/B    00/N    00/U    12/W    32/W    11/U    11/B
SHR 032/057 032/068 036/071 033/048 028/050 024/055 030/060
    00/U    00/U    00/B    34/W    32/W    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress
eastward through the region during the short term period. This
feature will provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the
ridge will be somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level
clouds to move over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning.
Skies clear out again on Halloween Day with afternoon high
temperatures expected to climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal
averages and a few locations possibly reaching near record high
territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions are expected across the area throughout the TAF
period. Westerly winds will be gusty at times with some locations
seeing 25 to 35 KT, with gusts in excess of 40 kt possible closer to
the Rocky Mountain Front. Winds will begin to diminish after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KMSO 292021
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
220 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

...SNOW OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure and drier air will build over the
region tonight. Clearing skies and low level moisture from last
night`s rains will be the ingredients for widespread fog across
most valley locations. Northwest Montana and central Idaho`s lower
valleys will be impacted the most with the thickest fog. Expect
mainly patchy fog elsewhere.

An upper level ridge will remain over the region through mid-day
Friday. Temperatures will remain somewhat cool under valley
inversions with mid level clouds moving through the ridge.
However, the airmass will be warmer on Friday despite weak inversions
that will hinder temperatures from reaching their full potential.
High temps will be above normal rising into the mid and upper
50s.

Enjoy the next two days as a significant wet weather disturbance
is expected to impact the entire region this weekend.

There is high certainty that a trough will pass through the
region on Saturday and that widespread precipitation will fall
beginning late Saturday. Forecast confidence is also high for
cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels by Sunday. When
weather systems similar to this have impacted the region in the
past the main focus for precipitation has been in north central
Idaho, through southwest Montana, and along the Continental
Divide. Current model solutions agree with this precipitation
placement so the current forecast reflects the same geographic
focus. There are subtle differences in the low placement and focus
for heaviest precipitation, so although confidence is high for the
storm system, there is some question on where the most moisture
and heaviest snow will fall. Snow levels will start off fairly
high early Saturday and lower to between 3000-4000 feet by late
Sunday. Most people have a chance to see snow with a good chance
for moderate snow amounts in the high terrain and over mountain
passes through Sunday night. Road conditions over mountain passes
such as Homestake, Lost Trail, Bannock, MacDonald, and Marias are
expected to be impacted as this system passes.

The region will begin to dry out on Monday but rain and snow
showers remain under northwesterly flow aloft.

Beyond Monday next week, models are pretty inconsistent as they
show either dry conditions under a flat ridge or another very wet
weather disturbance around midweek. Given the low confidence in
any model solution climatology will be used. During the first
week of November the average high temperatures are only in the
upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...Moist westerly flow combined with relatively unstable
conditions will allow for scattered showers in the mountains this
afternoon through this evening. So expect some mountain
obscuration through at least 30/0900z across western Montana. Some
drier air will work in aloft late tonight and this combined with
light surface winds will help fog to develop especially KMSO and
KGPI. The fog will dissipate by mid-morning Thursday. For the most
part most valleys will be rather stable on Thursday while there
will be an increasing chance for rain showers across Lincoln
County, Montana (Troy/Yaak areas) by evening.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 292019
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
219 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

...SNOW OVER MOUNTANI PASSES THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LAST
NIGHT`S RAINS WILL BE THE INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO`S LOWER
VALLEYS WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH THE THICKEST FOG. EXPECT
MAINLY PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL UNDER VALLEY
INVERSIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY DESPITE WEAK INVERSIONS
THAT WILL HINDER TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
50S.

ENJOY THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A SIGNIFICANT WET WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY THAT A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY. WHEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS SIMILAR TO THIS HAVE IMPACTED THE REGION IN THE
PAST THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO, THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT SO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THE SAME GEOGRAPHIC
FOCUS. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW PLACEMENT AND FOCUS
FOR HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, SO ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE
STORM SYSTEM, THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE
AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY SATURDAY AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET BY LATE
SUNDAY. MOST PEOPLE HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE SNOW WITH A GOOD CHANCE
FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ROAD CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES
SUCH AS HOMESTAKE, LOST TRAIL, BANNOCK, MACDONALD, AND MARIAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.

THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY BUT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

BEYOND MONDAY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE PRETTY INCONSISTENT AS THEY
SHOW EITHER DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A FLAT RIDGE OR ANOTHER VERY WET
WEATHER DISTURBANCE AROUND MIDWEEK. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MODEL SOLUTION CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE USED. DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION THROUGH AT LEAST 30/0900Z ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN ALOFT LATE TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY KMSO AND
KGPI. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. FOR THE MOST
PART MOST VALLEYS WILL BE RATHER STABLE ON THURSDAY WHILE THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY, MONTANA (TROY/YAAK AREAS) BY EVENING.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292018
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FORM OF CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IN IT/S WAKE...ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE UNSTABLE AND WEST WINDS HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE.
DRIFTING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN PROVINCES...A COLD FRONT
HAS REACHED THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS AND FLURRIES DEEPER IN THE COLDER AIR (OVER THE NE ZONES).

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
PROVINCES AS THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BUCKLES AND NORTHERLY FLOW FORMS
ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF A BUILDING NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE. THIS HIGH
WILL PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AS TEMPS WILL COOL ABOUT 15
DEGREES UNDER TODAY/S READINGS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL TIGHTEN AND THUS
INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...SKIES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE FOCUSED ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
NIGHT WERE SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY RESIDES IN THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. JET STREAMS ARE BEING FLAKY AND CHANGING
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING ANY 6
HOUR PERIODS. PARTIALLY COMPENSATED FOR THIS BY DOING A BLEND OF
GFS/CMC/ECMWF/DGEX QPF FOR ANY PARTICULAR 6 HOUR PERIOD. COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HIT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER THAT. ADIABATIC PROCESSES MAY PRODUCES SNOW EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE MODELS AS CURRENT SNOW LEVEL OPTIONS SEEM
TOO HIGH TO REACH THE SURFACE. HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO REDUCE
RADIATIVE COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR SOME AREAS.
GAH
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG- WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR THROUGH 06Z. MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE AFTER.

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE MT/ND/SK TRIPLE
POINT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. THIS LINE OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

VISIBILITY: MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
VISIBILITY DROPS AT THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING CLOUD DECK
INTERFACE. AS THE CLOUD DECK MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS AND TO THE
SOUTH CEILINGS SHOULD SHOULD RISE AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY.

AREA WINDS: 10 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST... CALMING AFTER
SUNDOWN TO LESS AND 10 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 291743
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. As expected
showers associated with the shortwave have moved off to the east
of the area, with mountain showers still lingering over the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds will remain gusty this afternoon, with
temperatures generally above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions are expected across the area throughout the TAF
period. Westerly winds will be gusty at times with some locations
seeing 25 to 35 KT, with gusts in excess of 40 kt possible closer to
the Rocky Mountain Front. Winds will begin to diminish after 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014/

Today through Friday...An upper level disturbance will move across
Central Montana this morning with scattered rain and mountain snow
showers diminishing by noon. Skies will become mostly clear during
the afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the Northern
Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures dominate the region into Saturday as a low pressure
system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to move
onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to the
Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana
Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system moves quick, exiting east Monday, but some
lingering precipitation may be seen over the mountains. High
pressure transits over the region Tuesday before unsettled westerly
flow brings the chance of precipitation back to the Continental
Divide Wednesday. High temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day
Friday into Sunday before warming back to near 60 Wednesday.
Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing
in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  33  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  29  52  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  58  36  58  40 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  55  29  55  31 /  40   0   0   0
WEY  41  20  47  24 /  30   0   0   0
DLN  56  30  57  37 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  59  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  57  32  55  38 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291615
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. As expected
showers associated with the shortwave have moved off to the east
of the area, with mountain showers still lingering over the Rocky
Mountain Front. Winds will remain gusty this afternoon, with
temperatures generally above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions are expected across the area. A disturbance moving
east across Central Montana this morning is bringing increasing mid
level cloudiness and isolated showers which will obscure mountains
at times. Westerly winds will be 25 to 35 KT, with gusts in excess
of 40 kt possible closer to the Continental Divide. Conditions
improve after 16Z. Winds diminish after 00Z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014/

Today through Friday...An upper level disturbance will move across
Central Montana this morning with scattered rain and mountain snow
showers diminishing by noon. Skies will become mostly clear during
the afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the Northern
Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures dominate the region into Saturday as a low pressure
system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to move
onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to the
Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana
Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system moves quick, exiting east Monday, but some
lingering precipitation may be seen over the mountains. High
pressure transits over the region Tuesday before unsettled westerly
flow brings the chance of precipitation back to the Continental
Divide Wednesday. High temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day
Friday into Sunday before warming back to near 60 Wednesday.
Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing
in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  33  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  29  52  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  58  36  58  40 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  55  29  55  31 /  40   0   0   0
WEY  41  20  47  24 /  30   0   0   0
DLN  56  30  57  37 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  59  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  57  32  55  38 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291440
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH WITH A QUICK MOVING WAVE TO MAKE SHOWERS A
BIT MORE EFFICIENT THAN EXPECTED SO RAISED POPS IN THE EAST
BECAUSE GROUND GOT WET IN BILLINGS. BUT THIS IS SHORT LIVED AND
CLEAR SKIES ALREADY VISIBLE WEST OF BILLINGS SO LOWERED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE WEST. ENOUGH DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
THAT AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME TOWERING
CUMLULUS AND LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING NORTHERN IDAHO WAS CRASHING THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY HAS INDUCED A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH TO FORM. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP AT LIVINGSTON IN
RESPONSE TO THIS LEE TROUGH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 50 MPH AT
LIVINGSTON OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SIMILAR STRENGTH IN WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM IDAHO FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN WAS SITTING AT 11MB AT 09Z AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 12MB THROUGH 12Z...SO NOT MUCH TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT EXPECTED. ALSO...STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE
SLIDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA...A SIGN THE LEE TROUGH WAS SET TO
MOVE EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE THROUGH 8AM
WITH A DECREASING TREND AFTER THAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN.

BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
THE LEE TROUGH TURNS THE GRADIENT MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STAY
STRONG INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. 700MB WINDS
WERE ONLY PROGGED TO 40KTS...SO NOT EXPECTED HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING SPEEDS THAT STRONG.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TURN THE FLOW NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ASCENT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASING. REGIONAL MOSAIC OF RADARS SHOWS PLENTY
OF ECHOES FROM GREAT FALLS TO DILLON. SOME OF THIS MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE STILL RELATIVELY DRY.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT
OF LIFT...SO NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY SHOWER EVENT. MOST PLACES
WERE STARTING OUT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL KEEP HIGHS UP TODAY DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TAPERS
ACTIVITY OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH TAKES OVER. COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS DOWN IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE. A LOW
LEVEL 850MB JET SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
40KTS MOVING TOWARD BAKER. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT
DURING THAT TIME...SO LOOKS LIKE A WINDY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE 12Z ENSEMBLES WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAY/S RUNS IN THAT
THEY SHOWED UNCERTAINTY...MORE SPREAD...FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
GEFS UNCERTAINTY LESSENED BEGINNING ON MON WHILE THE ECMWF/S
UNCERTAINTY LASTED AWHILE LONGER.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE E OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SW FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH ENERGY IN THE FLOW. FRI THROUGH SAT WILL BE
DRY...DESPITE THE ENERGY ON THE GFS...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A
LATE DAY SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SW MOUNTAINS SAT
AFTERNOON. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OVER THE E
ZONES ON FRI PER NAEFS. EXPECT STRONG SE SURFACE WINDS OVER SE MT
FOR FRI. THE WIND DIRECTION AND AN INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING ON
FRI SO TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S E TO THE UPPER
60S W. PREFRONTAL SAT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SAT NIGHT AND SUN...ALLOWING
SOME DIVERGENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LEFT-FRONT
QUADRANT. BOTH MODELS SHOWED A SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SW
MT BY 12Z SUN...WITH THE ECMWF MORE DEFINED THAN THE GFS WITH THE
LOW. ON SUN...THE MODELS POSED DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THAN THEY HAD
LAST NIGHT. THE GFS MOVED THE LOW ACROSS N WY AND THE ECMWF OPENED
UP THE LOW AND MOVED IT NE TO N MT/S CANADA. MOISTURE INCREASED
FROM THE W OVER THE AREA ON BOTH MODELS SAT NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. ALSO THE ZERO DEGREE C LINE AT 850 MB
REMAINED TO THE N ON SAT NIGHT ON THE LATEST RUNS...INSTEAD OF
SAGGING INTO THE AREA. THIS COLDER AIR REMAINED FURTHER N THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA SAT NIGHT AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS FOR W SD BY 12Z SUN.
MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE IN THEIR QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
TRENDED SAT NIGHT POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE AND SUN POPS TOWARD
GFS/MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH DID NOT RESULT IN A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHANCES LOOKED FAIRLY HIGH FOR QPF OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR E ZONES. THESE
WARMER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED LESS OF A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN.

THE SYSTEM SHIFTS E ON BOTH MODELS SUN NIGHT WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COLD AIR
ALSO WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. RAISED POPS TOWARD
THE ADJMRA GUIDANCE. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON MON
WITH MOISTURE DECREASING FROM W TO E. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO ADJMRA
GUIDANCE. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING ON MON
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGHING. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN GAP FLOW AREAS. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUSTS
AT KLVM WILL BE 35 TO 45 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 034/056 037/066 043/065 037/047 033/047 033/056
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/B    55/R    42/W    11/U
LVM 059 032/056 035/068 041/065 034/044 028/047 028/051
    2/W 10/U    00/U    00/B    66/O    32/W    11/U
HDN 063 033/057 035/066 036/069 034/048 030/049 028/058
    3/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    46/O    42/W    11/U
MLS 062 032/051 031/059 034/065 034/047 029/049 028/056
    3/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    22/O    42/W    11/U
4BQ 061 033/053 031/060 038/068 037/049 031/050 031/058
    3/W 00/U    00/N    00/U    22/R    42/W    11/U
BHK 059 030/044 027/047 031/061 035/046 028/045 027/054
    3/W 10/U    00/N    00/U    22/R    43/W    11/U
SHR 061 032/056 032/068 036/071 033/048 028/050 024/055
    3/W 10/U    00/U    00/U    35/O    42/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 291426
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
826 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFRESH THE POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
MAINLY FOR SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE GLENDIVE AREA. REST OF FORECAST
LEFT MAINLY UNCHANGED. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY...PUSHING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SO EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ALONG WITH A LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH WINDS UP HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH LAKE WIND
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE.

WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AS TROF DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY JET DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL BE
HAMPERED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS LOWER THIS MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL TEMPORARILY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5-10KT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15KT THIS MORNING....THEN UP TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 291209
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...An upper level disturbance will move across
Central Montana this morning with scattered rain and mountain snow
showers diminishing by noon. Skies will become mostly clear during
the afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the Northern
Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures dominate the region into Saturday as a low pressure
system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to move
onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to the
Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana
Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system moves quick, exiting east Monday, but some
lingering precipitation may be seen over the mountains. High
pressure transits over the region Tuesday before unsettled westerly
flow brings the chance of precipitation back to the Continental
Divide Wednesday. High temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day
Friday into Sunday before warming back to near 60 Wednesday.
Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing
in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions are expected across the area. A disturbance moving
east across Central Montana this morning is bringing increasing mid
level cloudiness and isolated showers which will obscure mountains
at times. Westerly winds will be 25 to 35 KT, with gusts in excess
of 40 kt possible closer to the Continental Divide. Conditions
improve after 16Z. Winds diminish after 00Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  33  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  29  52  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  58  36  58  40 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  55  29  55  31 /  40   0   0   0
WEY  41  20  47  24 /  30   0   0   0
DLN  56  30  57  37 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  59  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  57  32  55  38 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 291101
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
501 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TO IMPACT NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Low elevation rain and high elevation snow showers will slowly
diminish across the Northern Rockies throughout today. Snow levels
as low as 6500 feet are anticipated, particularly during this
morning. Mountain passes above 6500 feet, such as Lost Trail,
Bannock, Lemhi passes, will be impacted by light snow
accumulations and some brief hazardous driving conditions during
this time.

This evening through Thursday, mainly dry and relatively cool
conditions will be present across the Northern Rockies, as high
pressure briefly returns to the region. Daytime temperatures will
warm a bit between today and Thursday, however warming will be
muted for low and middle elevation valleys by high cloudiness.
Some valleys will experience persistent temperature inversions day
and night in this weather scenario.

...BIG SNOW EVENT POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND...

The high pressure will slowly erode across the Northern Rockies on
Friday, ahead of a significant snow-producing low pressure
circulation this weekend. Model guidances are beginning to
coalesce around a low pressure trajectory from the Snake River
Plain near Boise, Idaho, northeastward over west central Montana
from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. This low pressure
circulation is likely to be accompanied by plenty of Pacific
moisture, as well as plenty of cold air, as it moves across the
Northern Rockies. Snow accumulations on roadways are probable for
elevations above 4500 feet from the Clearwater Mountains of
Idaho, eastward toward the Butte/Blackfoot Region. Population
centers, such as Butte, Deer Lodge, Anaconda, and Georgetown Lake,
should brace for a snowy weekend. Hazardous driving conditions
due to slick roadways and periods of low visibility in snowfall
are becoming increasingly likely across the region. Most mountain
passes are anticipated to receive a snow impact, generally
accumulating 3 to 6 inches Saturday night through Sunday midday.

The main low pressure circulation will continue east of the
Continental Divide by Sunday night, with rain/snow showers slowly
diminishing over the Northern Rockies thereafter. Some models
suggest that active fall weather will continue to be present
through at least the middle of next week, however their
reliability on timing storm systems is fairly low at this time.
Therefore, probability of precipitation closely reflects that of
climatology following the weekend low pressure event.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers will continue to obscure area
terrain and reduce visibilities through this morning. Shower
activity is expected to decrease by the afternoon, but a few light
showers may linger around northwest Montana. A drier airmass will
move in this evening leading to clearer skies and possibly fog
development at KGPI and KMSO. KGPI will have the best chance to
see fog development on Thursday morning and may impact travel.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Zumpfe
Aviation...Kino

$$





000
FXUS65 KGGW 290956
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY...PUSHING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE.
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ALONG WITH
A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH WINDS UP HIGH ENOUGH TO
REACH LAKE WIND CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ISSUED THE
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AS TROF DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY JET DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL BE
HAMPERED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS...A LONG-WAVE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND A TROUGH JUST BEGINNING TO DIG INTO CALIFORNIA. AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTRODUCING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THERMAL
RIDGING WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ON SATURDAY.

THEN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE TIMING OF EC AND THE GFS APPEAR TO BE
WITHIN 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE THE
QPF AMOUNTS AND THE DURATION OF THE STORM. THE EC IS WETTER BUT
QUICKER WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLOW IN PASSING BUT NOT AS MOIST. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
FOR ALL THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH MODELS WRAP
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO CREATE A FROZEN MIX AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP IN WX GRIDS. THE FIRST RUN OF STORM
SNOW TOTALS COMES UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVERALL. WEAK RIDGING
THEN ZONAL FLOW FOLLOW INTO MID-WEEK. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS LOWER THIS MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL TEMPORARILY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5-10KT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15KT THIS MORNING....THEN UP TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 290952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
352 AM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...An upper level disturbance will move across
Central Montana this morning with scattered rain and mountain snow
showers diminishing by noon. Skies will become mostly clear during
the afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the Northern
Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures dominate the region into Saturday as a low pressure
system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to move
onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to the
Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana
Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system moves quick, exiting east Monday, but some
lingering precipitation may be seen over the mountains. High
pressure transits over the region Tuesday before unsettled westerly
flow brings the chance of precipitation back to the Continental
Divide Wednesday. High temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day
Friday into Sunday before warming back to near 60 Wednesday.
Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing
in many locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected across the forecast area through
Wednesday evening, unless otherwise noted. A disturbance aloft will
move east across Montana through the period, bringing increasing mid
level cloudiness and mainly mountain showers, which will obscure
mountains at times. The increasing westerly winds aloft will result
in breezy westerly downslope winds over the plains, which should
mostly hinder shower development along the east slopes of the
Rockies. Gusts there will generally range from 25 to 35 kt, but
gusts in excess of 40 kt are possible closer to the mountains. A few
showers may reach the ground in the eastern portion of the forecast
area (KHVR KLWT) at times between 09Z and 16Z, but conditions should
remain VFR. Timing of potential showers in the Southwest Montana
valleys (KHLN KBZN) will be similar, with a better chance of brief
MVFR conditions. Showers will decrease after 16Z, but mid level
cloudiness will linger across much of the area. Winds will gradually
decrease after 22Z.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  33  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  29  52  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  58  36  58  40 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  55  29  55  31 /  40   0   0   0
WEY  41  20  47  24 /  30   0   0   0
DLN  56  30  57  37 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  59  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  57  32  55  38 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290939
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
339 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING NORTHERN IDAHO WAS CRASHING THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS ENERGY HAS INDUCED A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH TO FORM. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP AT LIVINGSTON IN
RESPONSE TO THIS LEE TROUGH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 50 MPH AT
LIVINGSTON OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SIMILAR STRENGTH IN WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM IDAHO FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN WAS SITTING AT 11MB AT 09Z AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 12MB THROUGH 12Z...SO NOT MUCH TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT EXPECTED. ALSO...STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE
SLIDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA...A SIGN THE LEE TROUGH WAS SET TO
MOVE EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE THROUGH 8AM
WITH A DECREASING TREND AFTER THAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN.

BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
THE LEE TROUGH TURNS THE GRADIENT MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STAY
STRONG INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. 700MB WINDS
WERE ONLY PROGGED TO 40KTS...SO NOT EXPECTED HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
WINDS...BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING SPEEDS THAT STRONG.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TURN THE FLOW NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ASCENT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASING. REGIONAL MOSAIC OF RADARS SHOWS PLENTY
OF ECHOES FROM GREAT FALLS TO DILLON. SOME OF THIS MAY NOT BE
REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE STILL RELATIVELY DRY.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT
OF LIFT...SO NOT EXPECTING AN ALL DAY SHOWER EVENT. MOST PLACES
WERE STARTING OUT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL KEEP HIGHS UP TODAY DESPITE CLOUD COVER.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TAPERS
ACTIVITY OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH TAKES OVER. COOLER AIR WILL BACK IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP HIGHS DOWN IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE. A LOW
LEVEL 850MB JET SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
40KTS MOVING TOWARD BAKER. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT
DURING THAT TIME...SO LOOKS LIKE A WINDY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE 12Z ENSEMBLES WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAY/S RUNS IN THAT
THEY SHOWED UNCERTAINTY...MORE SPREAD...FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
GEFS UNCERTAINTY LESSENED BEGINNING ON MON WHILE THE ECMWF/S
UNCERTAINTY LASTED AWHILE LONGER.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE E OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. SW FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH ENERGY IN THE FLOW. FRI THROUGH SAT WILL BE
DRY...DESPITE THE ENERGY ON THE GFS...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A
LATE DAY SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SW MOUNTAINS SAT
AFTERNOON. 850 MB WINDS WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OVER THE E
ZONES ON FRI PER NAEFS. EXPECT STRONG SE SURFACE WINDS OVER SE MT
FOR FRI. THE WIND DIRECTION AND AN INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING ON
FRI SO TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S E TO THE UPPER
60S W. PREFRONTAL SAT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SAT NIGHT AND SUN...ALLOWING
SOME DIVERGENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LEFT-FRONT
QUADRANT. BOTH MODELS SHOWED A SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SW
MT BY 12Z SUN...WITH THE ECMWF MORE DEFINED THAN THE GFS WITH THE
LOW. ON SUN...THE MODELS POSED DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THAN THEY HAD
LAST NIGHT. THE GFS MOVED THE LOW ACROSS N WY AND THE ECMWF OPENED
UP THE LOW AND MOVED IT NE TO N MT/S CANADA. MOISTURE INCREASED
FROM THE W OVER THE AREA ON BOTH MODELS SAT NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. ALSO THE ZERO DEGREE C LINE AT 850 MB
REMAINED TO THE N ON SAT NIGHT ON THE LATEST RUNS...INSTEAD OF
SAGGING INTO THE AREA. THIS COLDER AIR REMAINED FURTHER N THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA SAT NIGHT AND THE SURFACE LOW HEADS FOR W SD BY 12Z SUN.
MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE IN THEIR QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
TRENDED SAT NIGHT POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE AND SUN POPS TOWARD
GFS/MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH DID NOT RESULT IN A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHANCES LOOKED FAIRLY HIGH FOR QPF OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR E ZONES. THESE
WARMER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED LESS OF A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN.

THE SYSTEM SHIFTS E ON BOTH MODELS SUN NIGHT WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COLD AIR
ALSO WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. RAISED POPS TOWARD
THE ADJMRA GUIDANCE. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON MON
WITH MOISTURE DECREASING FROM W TO E. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO ADJMRA
GUIDANCE. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING ON MON
NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGHING. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN GAP FLOW AREAS. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUSTS
AT KLVM WILL BE 35 TO 45 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 034/056 037/066 043/065 037/047 033/047 033/056
    3/W 00/U    00/U    00/B    55/R    42/W    11/U
LVM 059 032/056 035/068 041/065 034/044 028/047 028/051
    5/W 10/U    00/U    00/B    66/O    32/W    11/U
HDN 063 033/057 035/066 036/069 034/048 030/049 028/058
    3/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    46/O    42/W    11/U
MLS 062 032/051 031/059 034/065 034/047 029/049 028/056
    2/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    22/O    42/W    11/U
4BQ 061 033/053 031/060 038/068 037/049 031/050 031/058
    2/W 00/U    00/N    00/U    22/R    42/W    11/U
BHK 059 030/044 027/047 031/061 035/046 028/045 027/054
    2/W 10/U    00/N    00/U    22/R    43/W    11/U
SHR 061 032/056 032/068 036/071 033/048 028/050 024/055
    3/W 10/U    00/U    00/U    35/O    42/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Tonight...A shortwave will cross the Rockies tonight and bring a
chance of showers across the zones. Generally dry conditions at
lower levels and rapid movement will keep and rain amounts low.
Updated to freshen POPs and WX. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected across the forecast area through
Wednesday evening, unless otherwise noted. A disturbance aloft will
move east across Montana through the period, bringing increasing mid
level cloudiness and mainly mountain showers, which will obscure
mountains at times. The increasing westerly winds aloft will result
in breezy westerly downslope winds over the plains, which should
mostly hinder shower development along the east slopes of the
Rockies. Gusts there will generally range from 25 to 35 kt, but
gusts in excess of 40 kt are possible closer to the mountains. A few
showers may reach the ground in the eastern portion of the forecast
area (KHVR KLWT) at times between 09Z and 16Z, but conditions should
remain VFR. Timing of potential showers in the Southwest Montana
valleys (KHLN KBZN) will be similar, with a better chance of brief
MVFR conditions. Showers will decrease after 16Z, but mid level
cloudiness will linger across much of the area. Winds will gradually
decrease after 22Z.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...A progressive westerly flow aloft will
continue over the region through the rest of this week with weak
ridging currently across the state flattening tonight in response to
an upper level trough now moving inland into the Pacific NW, followed
by another building upper level ridge in its wake Wednesday night
into Thursday. Clouds increase ahead of the Pacific trough from
west to east this evening with a weak mid-level shortwave and
frontal boundary pushing east across the region Wednesday morning.
Widespread precipitation will mainly be confined to areas along
the Continental Divide from Rogers Pass north to the Canadian
border with a few scattered showers possible over SW and Central
MT Wednesday morning as the upper level energy and front passes.
Otherwise, the main impact from this system will be increased
winds late tonight through Wednesday. Strongest winds will occur
along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, as well as the
Norris Hill area and other areas with terrain enhanced winds,
where wind gust of 40-55 mph will be possible late tonight through
Wednesday morning. Skies will clear partially Wednesday afternoon
with additional clearing expected Wednesday night and Thursday as
the upper level ridge rebuilds over the region. Temperatures will
warm slightly Wednesday and Thursday, but remain close to seasonal
averages. Hoenisch

Thursday Night through Tuesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures move into the region Thursday into Saturday as a low
pressure system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to
move onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to
the Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana by
early Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system exits east Monday but some lingering
precipitation may be seen over the mountains into Tuesday. High
temperatures will fall 5 to 10 degrees per day from Friday into
Saturday and Sunday before warming back to the 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  57  33  55 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  37  55  30  52 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  37  58  35  58 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  30  54  28  56 /  30  30   0   0
WEY  21  41  22  47 /  10  30   0   0
DLN  33  55  30  58 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  34  58  30  53 /  30  10   0   0
LWT  37  57  34  55 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 290309
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
909 PM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...

Tonight...A shortwave will cross the Rockies tonight and bring a
chance of showers across the zones. Generally dry conditions at
lower levels and rapid movement will keep and rain amounts low.
Updated to freshen POPs and WX. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected across the forecast area through
the day on Wednesday, unless otherwise noted. A disturbance aloft
will move east across Montana through the period, bringing
increasing mid level cloudiness and mainly mountain showers, which
will obscure mountains at times. The increasing westerly winds aloft
will result in breezy westerly downslope winds over the plains,
which should mostly hinder shower development along the east slopes
of the Rockies. Gusts there will generally range from 25 to 35 kt,
but gusts in excess of 40 kt are possible closer to the mountains. A
few showers may reach the ground in the eastern portion of the
forecast area (KHVR KLWT) at times between 06Z and 16Z, but
conditions should remain VFR. Timing of potential showers in the
Southwest Montana valleys (KHLN KBZN) will be similar, with a better
chance of brief MVFR conditions. Winds and showers will gradually
decrease after 18Z, but mid level cloudiness will linger.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...A progressive westerly flow aloft will
continue over the region through the rest of this week with weak
ridging currently across the state flattening tonight in response to
an upper level trough now moving inland into the Pacific NW, followed
by another building upper level ridge in its wake Wednesday night
into Thursday. Clouds increase ahead of the Pacific trough from
west to east this evening with a weak mid-level shortwave and
frontal boundary pushing east across the region Wednesday morning.
Widespread precipitation will mainly be confined to areas along
the Continental Divide from Rogers Pass north to the Canadian
border with a few scattered showers possible over SW and Central
MT Wednesday morning as the upper level energy and front passes.
Otherwise, the main impact from this system will be increased
winds late tonight through Wednesday. Strongest winds will occur
along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, as well as the
Norris Hill area and other areas with terrain enhanced winds,
where wind gust of 40-55 mph will be possible late tonight through
Wednesday morning. Skies will clear partially Wednesday afternoon
with additional clearing expected Wednesday night and Thursday as
the upper level ridge rebuilds over the region. Temperatures will
warm slightly Wednesday and Thursday, but remain close to seasonal
averages. Hoenisch

Thursday Night through Tuesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures move into the region Thursday into Saturday as a low
pressure system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to
move onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to
the Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana by
early Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system exits east Monday but some lingering
precipitation may be seen over the mountains into Tuesday. High
temperatures will fall 5 to 10 degrees per day from Friday into
Saturday and Sunday before warming back to the 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  57  33  55 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  37  55  30  52 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  37  58  35  58 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  30  54  28  56 /  30  30   0   0
WEY  21  41  22  47 /  10  30   0   0
DLN  33  55  30  58 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  34  58  30  53 /  30  10   0   0
LWT  37  57  34  55 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290233
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
833 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ARE EVIDENT ON
RADAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. CURRENT TIMING PLACES THESE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THUS UPDATED TO ADD MENTION TO THE FORECAST.
ONLY OTHER TWEAK WORTH NOTING WAS TO COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPS
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 20S. TEMPS THERE SHOULD MODERATE SOME
AS CLOUD COVER BUILDS IN LATER ON TONIGHT. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD
DESCRIBED AS FAST AND MAINLY ZONAL BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW.

STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWLY BEEN PUSHING EAST AND WAS JUST EAST OF
A WOLF POINT-GLENDIVE LINE AT 145 PM. IN IT/S WAKE WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS CAN SOMETIMES LEAD
TO FOG BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD MIX THINGS UP LATER TONIGHT TO
PREVENT THAT.

SAID DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF LOOKS LIGHT (LESS THAN
0.05" IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION) AND WITH PRECIP MAINLY DRIVEN BY UPPER
DYNAMICS...PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME IS A BIT CHALLENGING. OTHERWISE...
LEANED ON SREF SOLUTION AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LAKE WIND POSSIBILITIES.

THEN AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL PUSH COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY/S. TFJ


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED LONG TERM TO ADJUST TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND BASED ON LATEST EC AND GFS GUIDANCE. EC AND
GFS AGREEMENT NOT BAD THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EC MODEL
DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BETTER AND HAS MORE PPT. THE EC ALSO
MOVES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY...ENDING PPT BY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. THE EC
MODEL IS ALSO COLDER AND HAS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF SNOW.

WITH THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 540 DAM ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...IF LOW-LEVELS CAN COOL ENOUGH.

SOMEWHAT WINDY FRIDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WITH A HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP IMPROVE MOISTURE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WINDS RELAX SOME ON SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A
FROPA SOMETIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK THEN EDGE IT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING
TOWARD A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING
EASTWARD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE FOR
POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY PASSAGE THOUGH EASTERN
MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STACKED LOW FOR GOOD LIFT...ALONG WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND COLD AIR...COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. TIMING BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGING. EC IS SLOWING DOWN WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
GFS/CMC ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS
MONTANA AND CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION EVENT WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL AS A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5-10KT TONIGHT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO 10-15KT BY MORNING. THEN ON WEDNESDAY WIND
BECOMES WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO 15-25KT AS A SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290229
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
829 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
PACIFIC JET NOSING INTO WA/OR BEGINNING TO INDUCE LEE SIDE
PRESSURE FALLS IN MT. AS A RESULT...LIVINGSTON HAS BEGUN TO GAP
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ALREADY. KIDA-KLWT GRADIENT ONLY ON
THE ORDER OF 8MB AS OF 02Z...AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO OVER
10MB LATER TONIGHT. WITH GOOD STABILITY/COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE
PARK WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS EXCEED 50 MPH LATER TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED
WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE TONIGHT...AND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE APPROACHED. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW
ENDING THE GAP FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE PUREST PRIOR TO 12Z.
EASTWARD SHIFT IN PRESSURE TROF WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED WINDS AT
BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MIXED GUSTS
SHOULD EXCEED 45 MPH AT HARLOWTON AND HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS IN
WHEATLAND COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
NEED FOR HIGHLIGHTS IN THESE NON-GAP AREAS AS MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD BEGINNING TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING PACIFIC ENERGY.
PERIOD OF ASCENT LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TOMORROW SHOULD BRING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE AREA...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY IMPACTED
BY THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE LEE SFC TROF THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION HAS BROUGHT
MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
EASTERN MOST ZONES...INCLUDING KBHK...HAVE REMAINED A BIT COOLER
AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY...AND BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. MEANWHILE...KLVM TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY WITH INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING
TO 35 MPH AT THIS TIME...DRIVING TEMPS INTO UPPER 50S.

THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED INTO THE REGION TOMORROW IS STILL ON
TRACK...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA TONIGHT...CAUSING
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP SOME...AND THEREBY INCREASING
WINDS FROM KLVM TO NYE...AND INTO BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET SOME GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THE GRADIENT IS QUITE RIGHT TO SUPPORT
STRONGEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE TIMING
OF STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COINCIDE WITH DRAINAGE OUT OF
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO BOOST WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
GRADIENT DOES SEEM A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON AREAS...BUT THE 700MB WINDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH
TO BE AN ISSUE. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL BE WINDY...JUST NOT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN AN HWO AS GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY
BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. DID RAISE POPS FOR MOUNTAINS...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD START OUT
PRETTY WARM...BUT WITH PRETTY CONSISTENT CLOUD COVER ALL DAY. DID
WARM WESTERN ZONES SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPECTED WARMER START TO DAY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION...SO A CLEAR AND MILD DAY SHOULD BE
ON TAP. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GLORIOUS HALLOWEEN EVENING EXPECTED FOR THE FESTIVITIES AS THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW GRADUAL COOLING IN THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE A LEESIDE TROUGH OVER THE AREA BUT FALLING
HEIGHTS OVER SE IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WILL KEEP PARK
TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING TO FAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP GAP
FLOW WINDS AND DRAINAGE WINDS IN CHECK.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS
OVER IDAHO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SO IT FAVOR THE WARMEST SURFACE AIR REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA HELPING TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 60S.

CHANGES LATE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL LAG MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. CRITICAL WEATHER PERIOD IS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA IT
WRAPS MOISTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION WILL FURTHER COOL THE AIRMASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW COOL THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT A
MINIMUM. WHETHER THE SYSTEM GENERATES IMPACTS IS A DIFFERENT
MATTER BECAUSE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP AND WOULD HAVE IT
FALL MOSTLY DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD MAKE ANY ACCUMULATION
DIFFICULT. FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THIS IS A SNOW
EVENT...BUT ITS RELATIVELY FAST SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
SUNDAY AND MAY NOT CLIMB TOO HIGH INTO THE 40S.

DRIER BUT COOL MONDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE AREA BUT COULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DAY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT FROM LIVINGSTON TO NEAR
NYE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS AND EXTEND FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON BY
MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 036/056 038/065 043/065 037/047 034/047 036/056
    13/W    10/U    00/B    01/B    54/W    21/B    31/U
LVM 043/059 033/058 037/066 041/060 034/044 029/047 030/051
    25/W    10/U    00/U    03/W    64/W    22/W    32/W
HDN 032/063 034/059 034/066 036/067 034/048 032/049 031/058
    13/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    45/W    21/B    21/U
MLS 032/062 032/053 033/058 034/066 034/047 032/049 031/056
    12/W    00/U    00/N    00/U    24/W    32/W    11/U
4BQ 030/061 033/055 034/059 038/068 037/049 033/050 034/058
    02/W    00/U    00/N    00/U    24/W    21/U    21/U
BHK 025/059 030/047 029/046 031/064 035/046 030/045 028/054
    02/W    20/U    00/N    00/U    23/W    32/W    11/U
SHR 028/061 032/059 029/068 036/070 033/048 028/050 027/055
    03/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    45/W    21/B    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 282345
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A progressive westerly flow aloft will
continue over the region through the rest of this week with weak
ridging currently across the state flattening tonight in response to
an upper level trough now moving inland into the Pacific NW, followed
by another building upper level ridge in its wake Wednesday night
into Thursday. Clouds increase ahead of the Pacific trough from
west to east this evening with a weak mid-level shortwave and
frontal boundary pushing east across the region Wednesday morning.
Widespread precipitation will mainly be confined to areas along
the Continental Divide from Rogers Pass north to the Canadian
border with a few scattered showers possible over SW and Central
MT Wednesday morning as the upper level energy and front passes.
Otherwise, the main impact from this system will be increased
winds late tonight through Wednesday. Strongest winds will occur
along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, as well as the
Norris Hill area and other areas with terrain enhanced winds,
where wind gust of 40-55 mph will be possible late tonight through
Wednesday morning. Skies will clear partially Wednesday afternoon
with additional clearing expected Wednesday night and Thursday as
the upper level ridge rebuilds over the region. Temperatures will
warm slightly Wednesday and Thursday, but remain close to seasonal
averages. Hoenisch

Thursday Night through Tuesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures move into the region Thursday into Saturday as a low
pressure system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to
move onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to
the Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana by
early Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system exits east Monday but some lingering
precipitation may be seen over the mountains into Tuesday. High
temperatures will fall 5 to 10 degrees per day from Friday into
Saturday and Sunday before warming back to the 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
VFR conditions are mostly expected across the forecast area through
the day on Wednesday, unless otherwise noted. A disturbance aloft
will move east across Montana through the period, bringing
increasing mid level cloudiness and mainly mountain showers, which
will obscure mountains at times. The increasing westerly winds aloft
will result in breezy westerly downslope winds over the plains,
which should mostly hinder shower development along the east slopes
of the Rockies. Gusts there will generally range from 25 to 35 kt,
but gusts in excess of 40 kt are possible closer to the mountains. A
few showers may reach the ground in the eastern portion of the
forecast area (KHVR KLWT) at times between 06Z and 16Z, but
conditions should remain VFR. Timing of potential showers in the
Southwest Montana valleys (KHLN KBZN) will be similar, with a better
chance of brief MVFR conditions. Winds and showers will gradually
decrease after 18Z, but mid level cloudiness will linger.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  57  33  55 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  37  55  30  52 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  37  58  35  58 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  30  54  28  56 /  20  30   0   0
WEY  21  41  22  47 /  20  30   0   0
DLN  33  55  30  58 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  34  58  30  53 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  37  57  34  55 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282121
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE LEE SFC TROF THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION HAS BROUGHT
MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
EASTERN MOST ZONES...INCLUDING KBHK...HAVE REMAINED A BIT COOLER
AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY...AND BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. MEANWHILE...KLVM TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY WITH INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT THIS TIME...DRIVING TEMPS INTO UPPER 50S.

THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED INTO THE REGION TOMORROW IS STILL ON
TRACK...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA TONIGHT...CAUSING
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP SOME...AND THEREBY INCREASING
WINDS FROM KLVM TO NYE...AND INTO BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET SOME GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THE GRADIENT IS QUITE RIGHT TO SUPPORT
STRONGEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE TIMING
OF STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COINCIDE WITH DRAINAGE OUT OF
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO BOOST WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
GRADIENT DOES SEEM A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON AREAS...BUT THE 700MB WINDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH
TO BE AN ISSUE. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL BE WINDY...JUST NOT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN AN HWO AS GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ONLY
BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. DID RAISE POPS FOR MOUNTAINS...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD START OUT
PRETTY WARM...BUT WITH PRETTY CONSISTENT CLOUD COVER ALL DAY. DID
WARM WESTERN ZONES SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPECTED WARMER START TO DAY.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION...SO A CLEAR AND MILD DAY SHOULD BE
ON TAP. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GLORIOUS HALLOWEEN EVENING EXPECTED FOR THE FESTIVITIES AS THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW GRADUAL COOLING IN THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE A LEESIDE TROUGH OVER THE AREA BUT FALLING
HEIGHTS OVER SE IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WILL KEEP PARK
TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING TO FAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP GAP
FLOW WINDS AND DRAINAGE WINDS IN CHECK.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS
OVER IDAHO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SO IT FAVOR THE WARMEST SURFACE AIR REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA HELPING TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 60S.

CHANGES LATE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL LAG MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. CRITICAL WEATHER PERIOD IS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA IT
WRAPS MOISTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION WILL FURTHER COOL THE AIRMASS AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW COOL THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT A
MINIMUM. WHETHER THE SYSTEM GENERATES IMPACTS IS A DIFFERENT
MATTER BECAUSE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP AND WOULD HAVE IT
FALL MOSTLY DURING THE DAY WHICH WOULD MAKE ANY ACCUMULATION
DIFFICULT. FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THIS IS A SNOW
EVENT...BUT ITS RELATIVELY FAST SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
SUNDAY AND MAY NOT CLIMB TOO HIGH INTO THE 40S.

DRIER BUT COOL MONDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A
GLANCING BLOW FOR THE AREA BUT COULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND DAY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS
SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY IMPACT KLVM WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/063 036/056 038/065 043/065 037/047 034/047 036/056
    03/W    10/U    00/B    01/B    54/W    21/B    31/U
LVM 042/059 033/058 037/066 041/060 034/044 029/047 030/051
    15/W    10/U    00/U    03/W    64/W    22/W    32/W
HDN 036/063 034/059 034/066 036/067 034/048 032/049 031/058
    03/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    45/W    21/B    21/U
MLS 033/062 032/053 033/058 034/066 034/047 032/049 031/056
    12/W    00/U    00/N    00/U    24/W    32/W    11/U
4BQ 031/061 033/055 034/059 038/068 037/049 033/050 034/058
    02/W    00/U    00/N    00/U    24/W    21/U    21/U
BHK 027/058 030/047 029/046 031/064 035/046 030/045 028/054
    02/W    20/U    00/N    00/U    23/W    32/W    11/U
SHR 032/060 032/059 029/068 036/070 033/048 028/050 027/055
    03/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    45/W    21/B    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 282052
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD DESCRIBED AS FAST AND MAINLY ZONAL BUT
A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TOMORROW.

STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWLY BEEN PUSHING EAST AND WAS JUST EAST OF
A WOLF POINT-GLENDIVE LINE AT 145 PM. IN IT/S WAKE WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS CAN SOMETIMES LEAD
TO FOG BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD MIX THINGS UP LATER TONIGHT TO
PREVENT THAT.

SAID DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF LOOKS LIGHT (LESS THAN
0.05" IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION) AND WITH PRECIP MAINLY DRIVEN BY UPPER
DYNAMICS...PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME IS A BIT CHALLENGING. OTHERWISE...
LEANED ON SREF SOLUTION AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LAKE WIND POSSIBILITIES.

THEN AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL PUSH COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATED LONG TERM TO ADJUST TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND BASED ON LATEST EC AND GFS GUIDANCE. EC AND
GFS AGREEMENT NOT BAD THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EC MODEL
DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BETTER AND HAS MORE PPT. THE EC ALSO
MOVES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY...ENDING PPT BY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. THE EC
MODEL IS ALSO COLDER AND HAS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF SNOW.

WITH THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 540 DAM ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...IF LOW-LEVELS CAN COOL ENOUGH.

SOMEWHAT WINDY FRIDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WITH A HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP IMPROVE MOISTURE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WINDS RELAX SOME ON SATURDAY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A
FROPA SOMETIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK THEN EDGE IT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING
TOWARD A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING
EASTWARD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE FOR
POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY PASSAGE THOUGH EASTERN
MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK. WITH POTENTIAL FOR STACKED LOW FOR GOOD LIFT...ALONG WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND COLD AIR...COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. TIMING BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGING. EC IS SLOWING DOWN WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EASTERN
MONTANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
GFS/CMC ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS
MONTANA AND CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION EVENT WITH MUCH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. WITH THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 2000
FT PERSISTS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER...AREA
CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT IN
ALL AREAS IN A FEW HOURS.

CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING DOWN TO 4000 FT AGL AS A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST BACK TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH FORMS OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 282042
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
242 PM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A progressive westerly flow aloft will
continue over the region through the rest of this week with weak
ridging currently across the state flattening tonight in response to
an upper level trough now moving inland into the Pacific NW, followed
by another building upper level ridge in its wake Wednesday night
into Thursday. Clouds increase ahead of the Pacific trough from
west to east this evening with a weak mid-level shortwave and
frontal boundary pushing east across the region Wednesday morning.
Widespread precipitation will mainly be confined to areas along
the Continental Divide from Rogers Pass north to the Canadian
border with a few scattered showers possible over SW and Central
MT Wednesday morning as the upper level energy and front passes.
Otherwise, the main impact from this system will be increased
winds late tonight through Wednesday. Strongest winds will occur
along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, as well as the
Norris Hill area and other areas with terrain enhanced winds,
where wind gust of 40-55 mph will be possible late tonight through
Wednesday morning. Skies will clear partially Wednesday afternoon
with additional clearing expected Wednesday night and Thursday as
the upper level ridge rebuilds over the region. Temperatures will
warm slightly Wednesday and Thursday, but remain close to seasonal
averages. Hoenisch

Thursday Night through Tuesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures move into the region Thursday into Saturday as a low
pressure system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to
move onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to
the Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana by
early Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system exits east Monday but some lingering
precipitation may be seen over the mountains into Tuesday. High
temperatures will fall 5 to 10 degrees per day from Friday into
Saturday and Sunday before warming back to the 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
Dry and stable conditions will continue through the afternoon due to
high pressure over the area. Winds may be gusty at times along the
Rocky Mountain Front. An approaching disturbance aloft will spread
showers across the area after 04z along with increasing winds. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions after 04z due to
lowered ceilings and precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  57  33  55 /  20  10   0   0
CTB  37  55  30  52 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  37  58  35  58 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  30  54  28  56 /  20  30   0   0
WEY  21  41  22  47 /  20  30   0   0
DLN  33  55  30  58 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  34  58  30  53 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  37  57  34  55 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KMSO 282030
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
230 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...Strong Cold Front this weekend...

.DISCUSSION...A moist weather system will shift across north
central Idaho and western Montana this evening and tonight. Most
areas (from Orofino and Grangeville eastward across Libby,
Kalispell, Eureka, Saint Ignatius, Missoula, and Hamilton)...valleys
and mountains...should see significant showers. The exception may
be Lemhi County due to the main moisture feed remaining just to
the north. The air mass should cool enough to lower snow levels
down to 5500 to 6000 feet overnight. Skalkaho and Lost Trail
Passes should be the most susceptible to snow showers and
possible slick roads.

A drier westerly flow should take hold Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Partial clearing Wednesday night may allow some valley fog
to develop by Thursday morning.

A very weak warm front is expected to shift northward across the
area Thursday...but mainly just produce clouds.

Forecast confidence is high for a big change to cooler and wetter
weather this weekend, however, models are still having difficulty
with the placement of the heaviest precipitation. Models have been
consistent in showing impacts for Lemhi county Friday night and
Saturday. The ECMWF model recently trended farther east and faster
with the upper level low and heaviest precipitation, calling into
question how bad the impacts will be for Georgetown Lake and
Butte. Regardless, models agree on some precipitation which will
fall as snow above 4000 to 5000 feet. Some expected impacts and
their confidence are listed below.

Lemhi County: Rain Friday night turning to snow will impact
highways 93 and 28, especially Lost Trail Pass, Gilmore Summit,
and Lone Pine. Salmon may receive some light snow showers Saturday
night and Sunday morning.

Southern Bitterroot mountains: Skalkaho and Lost Trail passes may
receive several inches of snow. Confidence decreases on snow
amounts farther north, though some mountain snow is likely.

Butte, Anaconda, and Georgetown Lake areas: Some snow is likely,
but recent model trends cast doubt on the amounts. There is
potential for several inches of snow affecting areas above 4000
feet, and especially above 5000 feet Saturday. Homestake and
McDonald passes may see very difficult driving conditions this
Saturday.

Rest of Western Montana: Rain and a few inches of mountain snow
is likely with impacts for Lolo and Lookout passes. Mainly rain is
expected in the valleys with light snow showers possible Sunday.

In the long term...models are inconsistent regarding timing of
weather systems and the exact location of the main storm track.
However, the pattern seems to be fairly moist within most model
solutions. As such, we have increased the precipitation forecast
for early next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...A moist frontal system will move over north central
Idaho and western Montana this evening and tonight. Showers will
be on the increase with the lower air mass slowly saturating as
well. Increasing mountain obscurations should occur with
occasional lower visibilities in the valleys with showers as
well. KGPI and KMSO will be most susceptible to the showers this
evening and then KBTM by later tonight.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





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