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000
FXUS65 KMSO 301009
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
409 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...Hot and Dry through Sunday...
...Increasing Thunderstorm Potential Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will begin to noticeably increase today
as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the Northern Rockies.
This ridge will further strengthen over the next several days, and
temperatures could rise to near-record territory in a few areas:

Central Idaho: Lower valleys, especially the lower Hells Canyon
area, will see temperatures well over 100 degrees Saturday and
Sunday.

Western Montana: Hottest temperatures will be Saturday and Sunday.
Expect temperatures hovering around 100 degrees in the lower
valleys of northwest Montana, such as Libby and Thompson Falls.
Elsewhere in western Montana, expect mid to upper 90s with some
areas in the Bitterroot Valley approaching 100 degrees Sunday.

A pattern change will begin late Sunday, as monsoonal moisture
sneaks up into the region Sunday night and Monday. This will
increase the potential for a few thunderstorms, mainly in central
Idaho, the southern Bitterroot, and across southwest Montana.

Low pressure will amplify off the west coast of the United States
by Tuesday and Wednesday. The resultant increasing southwest flow
aloft will help usher in additional moisture. This will combine with
increasing dynamic support to present continued thunderstorm
potential across the entire Northern Rockies. That being said,
confidence at this time is somewhat low for the possible coverage
and/or intensity of storms. Temperatures during this period will
lower to near-normal readings in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION....Vfr conditions will occur at all terminals today.
Late afternoon mixing winds around 10-15 knots will occur at all
terminals between 30/2200z and 31/0100z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KGGW 300927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXITING INTO NORTH DAKOTA VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING PER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP
PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL WHILE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM +22C TO +28C FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD THUS ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY TO REACH THE 90S. USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN THE YELLOWSTONE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MONTANA THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY. THEN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS RIDGE BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
AND BEYOND AS MODELS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY AND DIFFER ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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000
FXUS65 KTFX 300912
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300912
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300912
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300912
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300844
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTUM FOR MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90S TODAY AND THE MID 90S ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED SUNSHINE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE OVERALL MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WARM AND TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY BACKING FLOW ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL CAUSE RISING TEMPERATURES
AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO BECOME A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TIMING ENERGY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHIFTING THE HOT UPPER RIDGE EAST AND OPENING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BEFORE ALLOWING ENERGY BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...AS THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER MOVING IT OUT. AT ANY
RATE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMING WITH A RETURN TO
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
TAKING OVER. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS OVER THE EAST.
TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 058/093 060/096 063/096 064/096 064/091 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 052/090 053/094 054/094 056/091 056/089 054/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    13/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 091 056/095 058/098 062/097 063/099 063/094 061/094
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 090 058/095 060/098 062/097 065/096 066/093 064/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 091 056/094 058/097 060/097 061/096 063/092 063/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 088 055/091 058/094 057/095 059/091 062/090 060/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 088 053/091 054/093 055/094 057/094 058/091 057/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300844
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTUM FOR MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90S TODAY AND THE MID 90S ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED SUNSHINE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE OVERALL MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WARM AND TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY BACKING FLOW ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL CAUSE RISING TEMPERATURES
AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO BECOME A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TIMING ENERGY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHIFTING THE HOT UPPER RIDGE EAST AND OPENING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BEFORE ALLOWING ENERGY BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...AS THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER MOVING IT OUT. AT ANY
RATE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMING WITH A RETURN TO
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
TAKING OVER. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS OVER THE EAST.
TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 058/093 060/096 063/096 064/096 064/091 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 052/090 053/094 054/094 056/091 056/089 054/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    13/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 091 056/095 058/098 062/097 063/099 063/094 061/094
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 090 058/095 060/098 062/097 065/096 066/093 064/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 091 056/094 058/097 060/097 061/096 063/092 063/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 088 055/091 058/094 057/095 059/091 062/090 060/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 088 053/091 054/093 055/094 057/094 058/091 057/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300844
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTUM FOR MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90S TODAY AND THE MID 90S ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED SUNSHINE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE OVERALL MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WARM AND TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY BACKING FLOW ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL CAUSE RISING TEMPERATURES
AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO BECOME A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TIMING ENERGY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHIFTING THE HOT UPPER RIDGE EAST AND OPENING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BEFORE ALLOWING ENERGY BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...AS THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER MOVING IT OUT. AT ANY
RATE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMING WITH A RETURN TO
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
TAKING OVER. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS OVER THE EAST.
TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 058/093 060/096 063/096 064/096 064/091 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 052/090 053/094 054/094 056/091 056/089 054/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    13/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 091 056/095 058/098 062/097 063/099 063/094 061/094
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 090 058/095 060/098 062/097 065/096 066/093 064/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 091 056/094 058/097 060/097 061/096 063/092 063/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 088 055/091 058/094 057/095 059/091 062/090 060/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 088 053/091 054/093 055/094 057/094 058/091 057/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300844
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTUM FOR MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90S TODAY AND THE MID 90S ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED SUNSHINE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE OVERALL MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WARM AND TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY BACKING FLOW ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL CAUSE RISING TEMPERATURES
AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO BECOME A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TIMING ENERGY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHIFTING THE HOT UPPER RIDGE EAST AND OPENING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BEFORE ALLOWING ENERGY BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...AS THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER MOVING IT OUT. AT ANY
RATE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMING WITH A RETURN TO
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
TAKING OVER. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS OVER THE EAST.
TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 058/093 060/096 063/096 064/096 064/091 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 052/090 053/094 054/094 056/091 056/089 054/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    13/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 091 056/095 058/098 062/097 063/099 063/094 061/094
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 090 058/095 060/098 062/097 065/096 066/093 064/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 091 056/094 058/097 060/097 061/096 063/092 063/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 088 055/091 058/094 057/095 059/091 062/090 060/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 088 053/091 054/093 055/094 057/094 058/091 057/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0532Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 300337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE BUT AM
NOT MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER AND TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HIGHER THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300303
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WHAT FEW CLOUDS WE HAVE HAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE DISSIPATING. SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL
ARRIVE AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S EACH DAY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY BUT WILL CALM DOWN BY EARLY EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMBINED
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGERS ACROSS THE
AREA SO BE CAREFUL WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FAIRLY ZONAL TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING BRITISH COLUMBIA
UPPER LOW. FOR THIS WEEKEND THE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EASILY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS. ON
TUESDAY MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/090 058/095 061/095 063/095 061/095 062/091 061/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/092 054/090 054/090 053/089 054/089 053/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/091 056/096 057/097 062/096 060/098 061/094 061/094
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 057/091 058/096 061/096 062/094 062/095 064/093 065/092
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/091 056/095 058/095 060/095 060/095 061/092 062/092
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 054/088 055/091 059/092 057/093 057/090 060/090 059/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 051/089 053/093 054/091 055/091 055/093 056/091 058/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300303
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WHAT FEW CLOUDS WE HAVE HAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE DISSIPATING. SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. LOOKS LIKE THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL
ARRIVE AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S EACH DAY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY BUT WILL CALM DOWN BY EARLY EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMBINED
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGERS ACROSS THE
AREA SO BE CAREFUL WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FAIRLY ZONAL TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING BRITISH COLUMBIA
UPPER LOW. FOR THIS WEEKEND THE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EASILY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS. ON
TUESDAY MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/090 058/095 061/095 063/095 061/095 062/091 061/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/092 054/090 054/090 053/089 054/089 053/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/091 056/096 057/097 062/096 060/098 061/094 061/094
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 057/091 058/096 061/096 062/094 062/095 064/093 065/092
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/091 056/095 058/095 060/095 060/095 061/092 062/092
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 054/088 055/091 059/092 057/093 057/090 060/090 059/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 051/089 053/093 054/091 055/091 055/093 056/091 058/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300301
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
901 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
INHERITED GRIDS PER RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS. BEST BET FOR THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE REST OF FORECAST IS IN FINE
SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. OUT WEST
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR OF THE TROUGH AND THE WARMER AIR
OF THE RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT WANDER MUCH FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES THAT BEGAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL
BECOME NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH. WITH NO DISTURBANCES OR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WITH THE NW FLOW
PATTERN AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING...SKIES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND WIND WILL
DIMINISH. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND WET GROUND...CONDITIONS
COULD BE GOOD FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DID NOT DEVELOP FOG. SO WILL KEEP MENTION
FROM WX GRIDS FOR NOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT GRADUAL
WARMING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH EFFICIENT MIXING. HOWEVER ON
FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL SHIFT SURFACE WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

SCT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL FINE SHAPE. THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE WERE
A GENTLE NUDGE TOWARD THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300301
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
901 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
INHERITED GRIDS PER RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS. BEST BET FOR THIS
WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE REST OF FORECAST IS IN FINE
SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. OUT WEST
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR OF THE TROUGH AND THE WARMER AIR
OF THE RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT WANDER MUCH FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES THAT BEGAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL
BECOME NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH. WITH NO DISTURBANCES OR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WITH THE NW FLOW
PATTERN AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING...SKIES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND WIND WILL
DIMINISH. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND WET GROUND...CONDITIONS
COULD BE GOOD FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DID NOT DEVELOP FOG. SO WILL KEEP MENTION
FROM WX GRIDS FOR NOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT GRADUAL
WARMING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH EFFICIENT MIXING. HOWEVER ON
FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL SHIFT SURFACE WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

SCT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL FINE SHAPE. THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE WERE
A GENTLE NUDGE TOWARD THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292049
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
249 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S EACH DAY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY BUT WILL CALM DOWN BY EARLY EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMBINED
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGERS ACROSS THE
AREA SO BE CAREFUL WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FAIRLY ZONAL TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING BRITISH COLUMBIA
UPPER LOW. FOR THIS WEEKEND THE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EASILY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS. ON
TUESDAY MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL LESSEN TO NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS...TOMORROW EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 15KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH DIURNAL MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH FEW CLOUDS. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/090 058/095 061/095 063/095 061/095 062/091 061/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/092 054/090 054/090 053/089 054/089 053/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/091 056/096 057/097 062/096 060/098 061/094 061/094
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 057/091 058/096 061/096 062/094 062/095 064/093 065/092
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/091 056/095 058/095 060/095 060/095 061/092 062/092
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 054/088 055/091 059/092 057/093 057/090 060/090 059/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 051/089 053/093 054/091 055/091 055/093 056/091 058/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 292020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT
TIMES, BUT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z. COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292017
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
217 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO HUDSON BAY BY FRIDAY. OUT WEST
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING. THIS RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR OF THE TROUGH AND THE WARMER AIR
OF THE RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT WANDER MUCH FROM THE AREA.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES THAT BEGAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL
BECOME NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE GAINS STRENGTH. WITH NO DISTURBANCES OR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WITH THE NW FLOW
PATTERN AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING...SKIES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND WIND WILL
DIMINISH. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND WET GROUND...CONDITIONS
COULD BE GOOD FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DID NOT DEVELOP FOG. SO WILL KEEP MENTION
FROM WX GRIDS FOR NOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT GRADUAL
WARMING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH EFFICIENT MIXING. HOWEVER ON
FRIDAY A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL SHIFT SURFACE WIND AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

SCT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL FINE SHAPE. THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE WERE
A GENTLE NUDGE TOWARD THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CIGS: PERIODS OF SCT-FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

VIS: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY 10-15KTS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET.

GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 292012
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...As a ridge of high pressure begins to strengthen
over the region, the general trend across western Montana and
north central Idaho will be warming and drying with mostly sunny
skies. Afternoon breezes will develop, but for the most part
should be similar to what one would typically expect on a summer
afternoon.

High pressure is expected to be the strongest over the region
Friday into the weekend. This will result in the warmest
temperatures, with many valleys in Montana approaching mid to
upper 90s and lower valleys in Idaho reaching into the triple
digits. This will be a significant warm up, especially when
compared to the cool temperatures that occurred earlier this week.

Moisture will gradually work its way up into the region from the
desert southwest Sunday afternoon into early next week. The
threat for thunderstorms will increase each afternoon, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday as southwest flow aloft aids moisture
transport into the region. This will also lead to slightly cooler
temperatures (more similar to seasonal normals).


&&

.AVIATION....Expect fair flying conditions today through
Thursday. 10-15 knot winds will continue through sunset at most
TAF sites, with westerly winds at KMSO/KBTM and southerly to
southwesterly breezes at KGPI.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KMSO 292012
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...As a ridge of high pressure begins to strengthen
over the region, the general trend across western Montana and
north central Idaho will be warming and drying with mostly sunny
skies. Afternoon breezes will develop, but for the most part
should be similar to what one would typically expect on a summer
afternoon.

High pressure is expected to be the strongest over the region
Friday into the weekend. This will result in the warmest
temperatures, with many valleys in Montana approaching mid to
upper 90s and lower valleys in Idaho reaching into the triple
digits. This will be a significant warm up, especially when
compared to the cool temperatures that occurred earlier this week.

Moisture will gradually work its way up into the region from the
desert southwest Sunday afternoon into early next week. The
threat for thunderstorms will increase each afternoon, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday as southwest flow aloft aids moisture
transport into the region. This will also lead to slightly cooler
temperatures (more similar to seasonal normals).


&&

.AVIATION....Expect fair flying conditions today through
Thursday. 10-15 knot winds will continue through sunset at most
TAF sites, with westerly winds at KMSO/KBTM and southerly to
southwesterly breezes at KGPI.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291724
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT TIMES, BUT
THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 291724
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 01Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AT TIMES, BUT
THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01Z.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 291538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 291538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 291538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291504 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO MANITOBA ON ITS WAY TO HUDSON BAY.
ONLY REMNANTS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A FEW DEPARTING CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUIET AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MINOR
EDITS TO WIND AND SKY COVER. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291459
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
859 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT
SHAPE SO NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MUCH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS WIND ACROSS THE
AREA. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY AND AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGE WILL BRING SUMMER TIME HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IS LIMITED BY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CANADA. THIS
MEANS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WHICH WILL AID MIXING AS THE
HEAT ARRIVES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER THE HEAT SURGE LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHES THE
REGION. STILL A SUMMERTIME PATTERN BUT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODIC CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS DIURNAL
HEATING ALLOWS BETTER MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM ALOFT.
BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/090 060/094 060/096 063/094 061/092 062/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 083 046/088 049/091 054/092 056/090 056/090 055/087
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 085 055/091 058/096 058/097 061/095 060/094 060/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T
MLS 085 056/091 058/095 061/097 063/096 063/093 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
4BQ 084 054/091 057/094 060/096 062/096 061/093 061/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
BHK 082 053/090 054/091 059/094 059/093 059/089 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
SHR 083 050/089 052/092 055/094 057/094 057/092 056/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291459
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
859 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT
SHAPE SO NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MUCH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS WIND ACROSS THE
AREA. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY AND AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGE WILL BRING SUMMER TIME HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IS LIMITED BY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CANADA. THIS
MEANS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WHICH WILL AID MIXING AS THE
HEAT ARRIVES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER THE HEAT SURGE LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHES THE
REGION. STILL A SUMMERTIME PATTERN BUT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODIC CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS DIURNAL
HEATING ALLOWS BETTER MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM ALOFT.
BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/090 060/094 060/096 063/094 061/092 062/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 083 046/088 049/091 054/092 056/090 056/090 055/087
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 085 055/091 058/096 058/097 061/095 060/094 060/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T
MLS 085 056/091 058/095 061/097 063/096 063/093 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
4BQ 084 054/091 057/094 060/096 062/096 061/093 061/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
BHK 082 053/090 054/091 059/094 059/093 059/089 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
SHR 083 050/089 052/092 055/094 057/094 057/092 056/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE STRONG SUMMER STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST WITH AN
END TO THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS AND
CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

UPPER WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PUSHING WARM
DRY AIR NORTHWARD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTED SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL BUT
KEEP ANY EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES AT BAY. HOWEVER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH MOISTURE STREAM NORTH INTO CANADA FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A WESTERN RIDGE DRIVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR
ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A SHADE COOLER THANKS TO
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DUE TO THE FLATTENING RIDGE.

A STRONGER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ENTER INTO CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST ECMWF/GFS WHICH MAY HELP TO RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THAT WAVE/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES IT MAY PUSH THE
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DELIVER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING SPREAD IN 500MB HEIGHTS BY DAY 7
AND 8 HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
POTENTIAL BUT NOT YET WILLING TO GET TO BULLISH UNTIL MODEL
CONSENSUS INCREASES. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
ONE TO OVER 3 INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
RAINFALL TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS. FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MILK AND POPLAR RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290937 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290937 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290937 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290937 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY BUT BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S BUT AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290916
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
316 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MUCH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS WIND ACROSS THE
AREA. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY AND
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGE WILL BRING SUMMER TIME HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IS LIMITED BY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CANADA. THIS
MEANS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WHICH WILL AID MIXING AS THE
HEAT ARRIVES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER THE HEAT SURGE LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHES THE
REGION. STILL A SUMMERTIME PATTERN BUT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODIC CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS DIURNAL
HEATING ALLOWS BETTER MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM ALOFT. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/090 060/094 060/096 063/094 061/092 062/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 083 046/088 049/091 054/092 056/090 056/090 055/087
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 085 055/091 058/096 058/097 061/095 060/094 060/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T
MLS 085 056/091 058/095 061/097 063/096 063/093 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
4BQ 084 054/091 057/094 060/096 062/096 061/093 061/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
BHK 082 053/090 054/091 059/094 059/093 059/089 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
SHR 083 050/089 052/092 055/094 057/094 057/092 056/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290916
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
316 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MUCH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESS WIND ACROSS THE
AREA. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY AND
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGE WILL BRING SUMMER TIME HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IS LIMITED BY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CANADA. THIS
MEANS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WHICH WILL AID MIXING AS THE
HEAT ARRIVES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER THE HEAT SURGE LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHES THE
REGION. STILL A SUMMERTIME PATTERN BUT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODIC CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS DIURNAL
HEATING ALLOWS BETTER MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM ALOFT. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/090 060/094 060/096 063/094 061/092 062/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 083 046/088 049/091 054/092 056/090 056/090 055/087
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 085 055/091 058/096 058/097 061/095 060/094 060/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T
MLS 085 056/091 058/095 061/097 063/096 063/093 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
4BQ 084 054/091 057/094 060/096 062/096 061/093 061/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T
BHK 082 053/090 054/091 059/094 059/093 059/089 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
SHR 083 050/089 052/092 055/094 057/094 057/092 056/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KMSO 290914
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
314 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A sunny day is on tap for the Northern Rockies,
marking the beginning of several days of mostly sunny skies,
drying conditions, and gradually warming temperatures. This
morning will be the coldest morning of the week, so the threat for
frost will no longer exist henceforth. Today`s highs for central
Idaho will range in the 80s and 90s, with western Montana ranging
in the mid 70s to upper 80s. By Thursday, expect daytime highs to
warm an additional 5 to 10 degrees areawide.

High pressure will be strongest over the region on Friday and
Saturday, with afternoon temperatures approaching nearly ten
degrees above normal. Whether Friday or Saturday is the hottest
day remains up for forecast debate. But make no mistake about it,
summertime conditions will be making a rapid return to end what
will prove to be quite the weather roller coaster of a week!

The North American Monsoon has yet again helped initiate
thunderstorm activity across Arizona over the past twenty-four
hours. Moisture from these storms and future activity forecast for
today and Thursday will gradually round the high pressure ridge,
coming up the coast of California and eventually into the Northern
Rockies this weekend. The first chance for afternoon thunderstorms
will be on Saturday, with better opportunities each afternoon in
the following days. It`s still too early to pick out which day may
present the greatest impacts, but the amount of moisture forecast
to move into the region by Monday would suggest good chances for
showers and thunderstorms at any point in the day early next week.

Models do diverge somewhat by the middle of next week. That being
said, there is some agreement that the ridge will begin to weaken
as a cooler weather system approaches from the north.


&&

.AVIATION....Aside from a diurnal breeze expected after 29/1800Z
at all aviation sites, expect fair flying conditions today
through Thursday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 290914
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
314 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A sunny day is on tap for the Northern Rockies,
marking the beginning of several days of mostly sunny skies,
drying conditions, and gradually warming temperatures. This
morning will be the coldest morning of the week, so the threat for
frost will no longer exist henceforth. Today`s highs for central
Idaho will range in the 80s and 90s, with western Montana ranging
in the mid 70s to upper 80s. By Thursday, expect daytime highs to
warm an additional 5 to 10 degrees areawide.

High pressure will be strongest over the region on Friday and
Saturday, with afternoon temperatures approaching nearly ten
degrees above normal. Whether Friday or Saturday is the hottest
day remains up for forecast debate. But make no mistake about it,
summertime conditions will be making a rapid return to end what
will prove to be quite the weather roller coaster of a week!

The North American Monsoon has yet again helped initiate
thunderstorm activity across Arizona over the past twenty-four
hours. Moisture from these storms and future activity forecast for
today and Thursday will gradually round the high pressure ridge,
coming up the coast of California and eventually into the Northern
Rockies this weekend. The first chance for afternoon thunderstorms
will be on Saturday, with better opportunities each afternoon in
the following days. It`s still too early to pick out which day may
present the greatest impacts, but the amount of moisture forecast
to move into the region by Monday would suggest good chances for
showers and thunderstorms at any point in the day early next week.

Models do diverge somewhat by the middle of next week. That being
said, there is some agreement that the ridge will begin to weaken
as a cooler weather system approaches from the north.


&&

.AVIATION....Aside from a diurnal breeze expected after 29/1800Z
at all aviation sites, expect fair flying conditions today
through Thursday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KTFX 290528
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 290528
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 290311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 290311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 290311
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
911 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN
NICELY AT MID EVENING. THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLOUD COVER BUT THIS
SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 60 MPH SINCE MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INCLUDING THE BAKER...MILES CITY AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE
HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE STRONGEST WIDESPREAD WINDS OF THE DAY
ALREADY AND SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK RELAXING OF REMAINING WINDS BY SUNSET.
KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WELL LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME BEGINS TOMORROW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW AND A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO JUMP INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SUMMERTIME RIDGING...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY ABSENT THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. 500MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
THIS SHOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTY BUT WITH OUR AREAS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OUTSIDE ANY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

DOBBS


&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING BRISK WINDS THROUGH 05Z FROM KMLS TO KBHK
AT 10 TO 20 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS. VFR WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 056/089 058/093 061/096 061/094 060/092 060/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 046/080 048/086 050/086 054/088 054/087 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 052/085 055/091 058/095 057/098 058/095 057/094 057/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 055/084 057/090 060/094 061/098 062/096 061/092 062/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B
4BQ 053/084 054/091 057/093 060/097 061/097 060/093 059/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 053/081 055/088 055/090 059/095 059/094 057/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 049/080 052/087 054/089 053/093 056/093 055/091 055/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 290252
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR KSDY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SHOULD THAT OCCUR. PREVAILING WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 290252
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR KSDY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SHOULD THAT OCCUR. PREVAILING WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 290252
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR KSDY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SHOULD THAT OCCUR. PREVAILING WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 290252
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NEAR KSDY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SHOULD THAT OCCUR. PREVAILING WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 282337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUT MONTANA INTO A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
18Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282324
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
524 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WE ARE RESENDING THE ZONES AS AN INTERNAL TEST. I HAVE ALSO
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 60 MPH SINCE MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INCLUDING THE BAKER...MILES CITY AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE
HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE STRONGEST WIDESPREAD WINDS OF THE DAY
ALREADY AND SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK RELAXING OF REMAINING WINDS BY SUNSET.
KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WELL LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME BEGINS TOMORROW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW AND A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO JUMP INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SUMMERTIME RIDGING...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY ABSENT THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. 500MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
THIS SHOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTY BUT WITH OUR AREAS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OUTSIDE ANY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS
WILL CONTINUE FROM KMLS TO KBHK AND KEKA THROUGH ABOUT 03 UTC THIS
EVENING. OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST AS WELL...BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT
KMLS AND KBHK. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 056/089 058/093 061/096 061/094 060/092 060/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 044/080 048/086 050/086 054/088 054/087 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 053/085 055/091 058/095 057/098 058/095 057/094 057/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 057/090 060/094 061/098 062/096 061/092 062/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B
4BQ 053/084 054/091 057/093 060/097 061/097 060/093 059/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 054/081 055/088 055/090 059/095 059/094 057/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 049/080 052/087 054/089 053/093 056/093 055/091 055/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KMSO 282055
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
255 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A return to hot weather Friday through the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Expect a pretty chill night tonight with drier air
moving into the region. The higher elevated valleys, such as Butte
and Dixie, as well as some of the very low elevation valleys in
western Montana could get cold enough to receive a few hours of
patchy frost. Confidence is moderate for this solution.

The very cool weather we have experienced the past
few days will begin to rebound Wednesday under a dry westerly
flow.

Thursday...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH for a big change to HOTTER WEATHER
with a ridge of high pressure developing over much of the western
U.S. Expect temperatures to hover in the lower 90s Thursday across
western Montana valleys and to near 100 in the Lower Hells canyon
of west central Idaho.

Friday through Sunday even hotter conditions are likely as the
ridge of high pressure strengthens further over the region.
Confidence is high for high temps in the mid to possibly upper
90s in the valleys of western Montana. The valleys of central
Idaho, especially the Lower Hells Canyon will likely see
temperatures hovering around 105 or more.

Early next week models hang on to above normal temperatures but
not as extreme as the ridge is expected to be a bit weaker. The
big difference starting late Sunday into Tuesday will be the
presence of some monsoonal moisture at the mid levels. This would
bring a potential for thunderstorms, mainly in southwest Montana
and central Idaho. Confidence for thunderstorms, or amount of
storms is pretty low at this time.


&&

.AVIATION....Winds are currently gusting near 20 knots at KGPI and
KBTM, but the winds are expected to dissipate as the sun sets this
evening. For tonight mainly clear skies is expected which could
help produce some patchy fog in some low-lying valleys.
Otherwise...a calm flying forecast is in store for the next 24
hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 282055
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
255 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A return to hot weather Friday through the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Expect a pretty chill night tonight with drier air
moving into the region. The higher elevated valleys, such as Butte
and Dixie, as well as some of the very low elevation valleys in
western Montana could get cold enough to receive a few hours of
patchy frost. Confidence is moderate for this solution.

The very cool weather we have experienced the past
few days will begin to rebound Wednesday under a dry westerly
flow.

Thursday...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH for a big change to HOTTER WEATHER
with a ridge of high pressure developing over much of the western
U.S. Expect temperatures to hover in the lower 90s Thursday across
western Montana valleys and to near 100 in the Lower Hells canyon
of west central Idaho.

Friday through Sunday even hotter conditions are likely as the
ridge of high pressure strengthens further over the region.
Confidence is high for high temps in the mid to possibly upper
90s in the valleys of western Montana. The valleys of central
Idaho, especially the Lower Hells Canyon will likely see
temperatures hovering around 105 or more.

Early next week models hang on to above normal temperatures but
not as extreme as the ridge is expected to be a bit weaker. The
big difference starting late Sunday into Tuesday will be the
presence of some monsoonal moisture at the mid levels. This would
bring a potential for thunderstorms, mainly in southwest Montana
and central Idaho. Confidence for thunderstorms, or amount of
storms is pretty low at this time.


&&

.AVIATION....Winds are currently gusting near 20 knots at KGPI and
KBTM, but the winds are expected to dissipate as the sun sets this
evening. For tonight mainly clear skies is expected which could
help produce some patchy fog in some low-lying valleys.
Otherwise...a calm flying forecast is in store for the next 24
hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 282055
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
255 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A return to hot weather Friday through the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Expect a pretty chill night tonight with drier air
moving into the region. The higher elevated valleys, such as Butte
and Dixie, as well as some of the very low elevation valleys in
western Montana could get cold enough to receive a few hours of
patchy frost. Confidence is moderate for this solution.

The very cool weather we have experienced the past
few days will begin to rebound Wednesday under a dry westerly
flow.

Thursday...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH for a big change to HOTTER WEATHER
with a ridge of high pressure developing over much of the western
U.S. Expect temperatures to hover in the lower 90s Thursday across
western Montana valleys and to near 100 in the Lower Hells canyon
of west central Idaho.

Friday through Sunday even hotter conditions are likely as the
ridge of high pressure strengthens further over the region.
Confidence is high for high temps in the mid to possibly upper
90s in the valleys of western Montana. The valleys of central
Idaho, especially the Lower Hells Canyon will likely see
temperatures hovering around 105 or more.

Early next week models hang on to above normal temperatures but
not as extreme as the ridge is expected to be a bit weaker. The
big difference starting late Sunday into Tuesday will be the
presence of some monsoonal moisture at the mid levels. This would
bring a potential for thunderstorms, mainly in southwest Montana
and central Idaho. Confidence for thunderstorms, or amount of
storms is pretty low at this time.


&&

.AVIATION....Winds are currently gusting near 20 knots at KGPI and
KBTM, but the winds are expected to dissipate as the sun sets this
evening. For tonight mainly clear skies is expected which could
help produce some patchy fog in some low-lying valleys.
Otherwise...a calm flying forecast is in store for the next 24
hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 282055
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
255 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A return to hot weather Friday through the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Expect a pretty chill night tonight with drier air
moving into the region. The higher elevated valleys, such as Butte
and Dixie, as well as some of the very low elevation valleys in
western Montana could get cold enough to receive a few hours of
patchy frost. Confidence is moderate for this solution.

The very cool weather we have experienced the past
few days will begin to rebound Wednesday under a dry westerly
flow.

Thursday...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH for a big change to HOTTER WEATHER
with a ridge of high pressure developing over much of the western
U.S. Expect temperatures to hover in the lower 90s Thursday across
western Montana valleys and to near 100 in the Lower Hells canyon
of west central Idaho.

Friday through Sunday even hotter conditions are likely as the
ridge of high pressure strengthens further over the region.
Confidence is high for high temps in the mid to possibly upper
90s in the valleys of western Montana. The valleys of central
Idaho, especially the Lower Hells Canyon will likely see
temperatures hovering around 105 or more.

Early next week models hang on to above normal temperatures but
not as extreme as the ridge is expected to be a bit weaker. The
big difference starting late Sunday into Tuesday will be the
presence of some monsoonal moisture at the mid levels. This would
bring a potential for thunderstorms, mainly in southwest Montana
and central Idaho. Confidence for thunderstorms, or amount of
storms is pretty low at this time.


&&

.AVIATION....Winds are currently gusting near 20 knots at KGPI and
KBTM, but the winds are expected to dissipate as the sun sets this
evening. For tonight mainly clear skies is expected which could
help produce some patchy fog in some low-lying valleys.
Otherwise...a calm flying forecast is in store for the next 24
hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 282050
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MORE RAIN AND WIND TODAY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WILL BE STACKED UP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT MIDNIGHT THAT WILL
RESULT LOCALLY IN RAIN ENDING AND WIND DIMINISHING.

AT 6 PM THIS EVENING THE STORM CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY TO OUR EAST.
RAIN AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LATE AFTERNOON MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS AFTERNOON THE
TAPERING DOWN THIS EVENING. WIND DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO WNW AROUND 10KT...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT ON
WEDNESDAY.

SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
1-3+ INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS RAINFALL TO
MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS INTO
WEDNESDAY. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 282050
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE VERY STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS...AND SOAKING RAINS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. SOME CLEARING OF SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
36 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FLATTENED UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 MPH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HOT DESERT AIR WILL ANCHOR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MOSTLY UNCHANGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE THERMAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NW TO SE ACROSS
NEMONT...KEEPING THE HOT DESERT AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. LOCAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALSO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN CANADA WILL BUMP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING IN
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT TIME GFS
AND THE EC FALL OUT OF PHASE FOR THE NEXT FEATURE.

EXCEPT FOR NUDGING UP POPS FOR MONDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MORE RAIN AND WIND TODAY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
WILL BE STACKED UP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT MIDNIGHT THAT WILL
RESULT LOCALLY IN RAIN ENDING AND WIND DIMINISHING.

AT 6 PM THIS EVENING THE STORM CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY TO OUR EAST.
RAIN AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LATE AFTERNOON MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS AFTERNOON THE
TAPERING DOWN THIS EVENING. WIND DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO WNW AROUND 10KT...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT ON
WEDNESDAY.

SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS
PHILLIPS...VALLEY...DANIELS...AND WESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH
1-3+ INCHES OBSERVED. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS RAINFALL TO
MAKE ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM INTO CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS INTO
WEDNESDAY. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282038
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
238 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 60 MPH SINCE MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INCLUDING THE BAKER...MILES CITY AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE
HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE STRONGEST WIDESPREAD WINDS OF THE DAY
ALREADY AND SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK RELAXING OF REMAINING WINDS BY SUNSET.
KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WELL LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME BEGINS TOMORROW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW AND A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO JUMP INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SUMMERTIME RIDGING...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY ABSENT THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. 500MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
THIS SHOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BUT WITH OUR AREAS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OUTSIDE ANY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 056/089 058/093 061/096 061/094 060/092 060/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 044/080 048/086 050/086 054/088 054/087 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 053/085 055/091 058/095 057/098 058/095 057/094 057/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 057/090 060/094 061/098 062/096 061/092 062/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B
4BQ 053/084 054/091 057/093 060/097 061/097 060/093 059/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 054/081 055/088 055/090 059/095 059/094 057/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 049/080 052/087 054/089 053/093 056/093 055/091 055/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282038
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
238 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 60 MPH SINCE MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INCLUDING THE BAKER...MILES CITY AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE
HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE STRONGEST WIDESPREAD WINDS OF THE DAY
ALREADY AND SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK RELAXING OF REMAINING WINDS BY SUNSET.
KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WELL LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME BEGINS TOMORROW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW AND A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO JUMP INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SUMMERTIME RIDGING...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY ABSENT THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. 500MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
THIS SHOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BUT WITH OUR AREAS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OUTSIDE ANY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 056/089 058/093 061/096 061/094 060/092 060/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 044/080 048/086 050/086 054/088 054/087 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 053/085 055/091 058/095 057/098 058/095 057/094 057/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 057/090 060/094 061/098 062/096 061/092 062/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B
4BQ 053/084 054/091 057/093 060/097 061/097 060/093 059/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 054/081 055/088 055/090 059/095 059/094 057/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 049/080 052/087 054/089 053/093 056/093 055/091 055/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282038
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
238 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 60 MPH SINCE MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INCLUDING THE BAKER...MILES CITY AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE
HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE STRONGEST WIDESPREAD WINDS OF THE DAY
ALREADY AND SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK RELAXING OF REMAINING WINDS BY SUNSET.
KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WELL LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME BEGINS TOMORROW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW AND A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO JUMP INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SUMMERTIME RIDGING...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY ABSENT THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. 500MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
THIS SHOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BUT WITH OUR AREAS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OUTSIDE ANY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 056/089 058/093 061/096 061/094 060/092 060/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 044/080 048/086 050/086 054/088 054/087 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 053/085 055/091 058/095 057/098 058/095 057/094 057/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 057/090 060/094 061/098 062/096 061/092 062/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B
4BQ 053/084 054/091 057/093 060/097 061/097 060/093 059/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 054/081 055/088 055/090 059/095 059/094 057/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 049/080 052/087 054/089 053/093 056/093 055/091 055/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282038
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
238 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WINDS WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARMER
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS HAVE GUSTED AROUND 60 MPH SINCE MID MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INCLUDING THE BAKER...MILES CITY AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE
HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE STRONGEST WIDESPREAD WINDS OF THE DAY
ALREADY AND SHOULD SEE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK RELAXING OF REMAINING WINDS BY SUNSET.
KEEPING THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA COULD PUSH DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WELL LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME BEGINS TOMORROW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW AND A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO JUMP INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SUMMERTIME RIDGING...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY ABSENT THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND
ARRIVES. 500MB FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS A RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
THIS SHOULD GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BUT WITH OUR AREAS PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE
AXIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL OUTSIDE ANY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE EXTENDED. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 056/089 058/093 061/096 061/094 060/092 060/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 044/080 048/086 050/086 054/088 054/087 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 053/085 055/091 058/095 057/098 058/095 057/094 057/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 057/090 060/094 061/098 062/096 061/092 062/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B
4BQ 053/084 054/091 057/093 060/097 061/097 060/093 059/091
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 054/081 055/088 055/090 059/095 059/094 057/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 049/080 052/087 054/089 053/093 056/093 055/091 055/089
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 282015
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 282015
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281713
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1710Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
WITH IT. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM AND
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME, AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINAL AREAS. CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED EXIT OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM.  COULSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281608
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1008 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING IS TO DECREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED WINDS UP A FEW MPH, AGAIN BASED UPON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING OK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
AND PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE, HILL, AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM MDT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE LOWERING OF
POTENTIAL FLOODING. HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS
OF YET, BUT WILL MAKE CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
DISASTER/EMERGENCY OFFICIALS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THE
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDY FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE KEEPING MOST AREAS
DRY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
BULL MOUNTAINS BUT OBSERVATIONS AT MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE
REMAINED DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 50 MPH OVER NORTHEAST ZONES. AS WE HEAT
UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN AND SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60 MPH RANGE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A MUCH CALMER DAY IS STORE TODAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING THE LARGE AND
DEEP UPPER LOW AND THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE VERY TIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR AS WELL AND THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KTS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 35KTS FOR MILES CITY AND BAKER. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY OUT EAST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SUNSET. SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SUMMERTIME RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THIS PERIOD HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLIDE TO NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEAK SIGNAL THAT MONSOONAL FLOW BUILDS ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 052/085 057/091 058/094 061/092 061/089 060/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 073 044/083 049/088 053/091 054/090 054/088 054/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    12/B
HDN 076 051/087 054/092 056/096 058/093 059/091 059/089
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 073 053/086 057/091 059/096 062/092 061/090 061/089
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 073 052/086 055/092 058/096 061/093 061/092 060/090
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 070 050/084 053/088 056/092 060/089 058/087 058/085
    3/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/B
SHR 074 046/083 049/089 054/093 055/092 056/090 056/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    22/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDY FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE KEEPING MOST AREAS
DRY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
BULL MOUNTAINS BUT OBSERVATIONS AT MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE
REMAINED DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 50 MPH OVER NORTHEAST ZONES. AS WE HEAT
UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN AND SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60 MPH RANGE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A MUCH CALMER DAY IS STORE TODAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING THE LARGE AND
DEEP UPPER LOW AND THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE VERY TIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR AS WELL AND THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KTS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 35KTS FOR MILES CITY AND BAKER. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY OUT EAST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SUNSET. SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SUMMERTIME RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THIS PERIOD HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLIDE TO NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEAK SIGNAL THAT MONSOONAL FLOW BUILDS ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 052/085 057/091 058/094 061/092 061/089 060/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 073 044/083 049/088 053/091 054/090 054/088 054/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    12/B
HDN 076 051/087 054/092 056/096 058/093 059/091 059/089
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 073 053/086 057/091 059/096 062/092 061/090 061/089
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 073 052/086 055/092 058/096 061/093 061/092 060/090
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 070 050/084 053/088 056/092 060/089 058/087 058/085
    3/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/B
SHR 074 046/083 049/089 054/093 055/092 056/090 056/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    22/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDY FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE KEEPING MOST AREAS
DRY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
BULL MOUNTAINS BUT OBSERVATIONS AT MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE
REMAINED DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 50 MPH OVER NORTHEAST ZONES. AS WE HEAT
UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN AND SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60 MPH RANGE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A MUCH CALMER DAY IS STORE TODAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING THE LARGE AND
DEEP UPPER LOW AND THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE VERY TIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR AS WELL AND THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KTS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 35KTS FOR MILES CITY AND BAKER. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY OUT EAST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SUNSET. SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SUMMERTIME RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THIS PERIOD HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLIDE TO NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEAK SIGNAL THAT MONSOONAL FLOW BUILDS ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 052/085 057/091 058/094 061/092 061/089 060/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 073 044/083 049/088 053/091 054/090 054/088 054/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    12/B
HDN 076 051/087 054/092 056/096 058/093 059/091 059/089
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 073 053/086 057/091 059/096 062/092 061/090 061/089
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 073 052/086 055/092 058/096 061/093 061/092 060/090
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 070 050/084 053/088 056/092 060/089 058/087 058/085
    3/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/B
SHR 074 046/083 049/089 054/093 055/092 056/090 056/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    22/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDY FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE KEEPING MOST AREAS
DRY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
BULL MOUNTAINS BUT OBSERVATIONS AT MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE
REMAINED DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 50 MPH OVER NORTHEAST ZONES. AS WE HEAT
UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN AND SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60 MPH RANGE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A MUCH CALMER DAY IS STORE TODAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING THE LARGE AND
DEEP UPPER LOW AND THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE VERY TIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR AS WELL AND THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KTS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 35KTS FOR MILES CITY AND BAKER. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY OUT EAST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SUNSET. SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SUMMERTIME RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THIS PERIOD HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLIDE TO NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEAK SIGNAL THAT MONSOONAL FLOW BUILDS ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 052/085 057/091 058/094 061/092 061/089 060/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 073 044/083 049/088 053/091 054/090 054/088 054/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    12/B
HDN 076 051/087 054/092 056/096 058/093 059/091 059/089
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 073 053/086 057/091 059/096 062/092 061/090 061/089
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 073 052/086 055/092 058/096 061/093 061/092 060/090
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 070 050/084 053/088 056/092 060/089 058/087 058/085
    3/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/B
SHR 074 046/083 049/089 054/093 055/092 056/090 056/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    22/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 281507
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
907 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING VERY STRONG
WINDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION TODAY. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
COOL TEMPS A BIG GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE A TROWAL FEATURE IS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THE THREAT FOR AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES
TODAY.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE LOW WINDS UP...WITH SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WINDS
BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT 50 TO 70 KNOT 850MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DAMPEN OUT THESE WINDS FROM
BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...BUT COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME
DOWNWARD ACCELERATION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG SPEEDS IN THE MODELS
EXPECTED HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SUPPRESSING HEATING AS WELL THE COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
LOW. WINDS AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW REACHES MANITOBA WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. EBERT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HOT HIGH PRESSURE FROM DOWN SOUTH
WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS COOL SURFACE AIR SHALLOWS OUT
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. GAH

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE STACKED UP WHICH WILL BRING
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE TERMINAL AREAS TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AN EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER WHICH WILL GENERATE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS MORNING AT 6 AM THE STORM CENTER WAS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. AT 6 PM THIS EVENING IT WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY EAST. RAIN
AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS MORNING...
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WIND
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER RISES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING ALONG BEAVER CREEK NEAR SACO AND
HINSDALE AS WELL AS ON THE VARIOUS BRANCHES OF THE POPLAR RIVER
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL ON MONDAY.

WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...RIVER RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG BEAVER CREEK...AND THE MILK AND
POPLAR RIVERS. MANY OTHER STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALSO SEE HIGH WATER. EBERT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281507
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
907 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING VERY STRONG
WINDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION TODAY. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
COOL TEMPS A BIG GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE A TROWAL FEATURE IS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THE THREAT FOR AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES
TODAY.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE LOW WINDS UP...WITH SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WINDS
BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT 50 TO 70 KNOT 850MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DAMPEN OUT THESE WINDS FROM
BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...BUT COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME
DOWNWARD ACCELERATION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG SPEEDS IN THE MODELS
EXPECTED HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SUPPRESSING HEATING AS WELL THE COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
LOW. WINDS AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW REACHES MANITOBA WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. EBERT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HOT HIGH PRESSURE FROM DOWN SOUTH
WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS COOL SURFACE AIR SHALLOWS OUT
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. GAH

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE STACKED UP WHICH WILL BRING
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE TERMINAL AREAS TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AN EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER WHICH WILL GENERATE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS MORNING AT 6 AM THE STORM CENTER WAS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. AT 6 PM THIS EVENING IT WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY EAST. RAIN
AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS MORNING...
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WIND
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER RISES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING ALONG BEAVER CREEK NEAR SACO AND
HINSDALE AS WELL AS ON THE VARIOUS BRANCHES OF THE POPLAR RIVER
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL ON MONDAY.

WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...RIVER RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG BEAVER CREEK...AND THE MILK AND
POPLAR RIVERS. MANY OTHER STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALSO SEE HIGH WATER. EBERT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281507
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
907 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING VERY STRONG
WINDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION TODAY. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
COOL TEMPS A BIG GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE A TROWAL FEATURE IS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THE THREAT FOR AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES
TODAY.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE LOW WINDS UP...WITH SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WINDS
BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT 50 TO 70 KNOT 850MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DAMPEN OUT THESE WINDS FROM
BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...BUT COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME
DOWNWARD ACCELERATION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG SPEEDS IN THE MODELS
EXPECTED HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SUPPRESSING HEATING AS WELL THE COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
LOW. WINDS AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW REACHES MANITOBA WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. EBERT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HOT HIGH PRESSURE FROM DOWN SOUTH
WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS COOL SURFACE AIR SHALLOWS OUT
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. GAH

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE STACKED UP WHICH WILL BRING
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE TERMINAL AREAS TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AN EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER WHICH WILL GENERATE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS MORNING AT 6 AM THE STORM CENTER WAS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. AT 6 PM THIS EVENING IT WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY EAST. RAIN
AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS MORNING...
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WIND
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER RISES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING ALONG BEAVER CREEK NEAR SACO AND
HINSDALE AS WELL AS ON THE VARIOUS BRANCHES OF THE POPLAR RIVER
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL ON MONDAY.

WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...RIVER RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG BEAVER CREEK...AND THE MILK AND
POPLAR RIVERS. MANY OTHER STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALSO SEE HIGH WATER. EBERT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281507
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
907 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING VERY STRONG
WINDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION TODAY. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
COOL TEMPS A BIG GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE A TROWAL FEATURE IS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THE THREAT FOR AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES
TODAY.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE LOW WINDS UP...WITH SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WINDS
BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT 50 TO 70 KNOT 850MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DAMPEN OUT THESE WINDS FROM
BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...BUT COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME
DOWNWARD ACCELERATION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG SPEEDS IN THE MODELS
EXPECTED HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SUPPRESSING HEATING AS WELL THE COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
LOW. WINDS AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW REACHES MANITOBA WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. EBERT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HOT HIGH PRESSURE FROM DOWN SOUTH
WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS COOL SURFACE AIR SHALLOWS OUT
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. GAH

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE STACKED UP WHICH WILL BRING
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE TERMINAL AREAS TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AN EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER WHICH WILL GENERATE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS MORNING AT 6 AM THE STORM CENTER WAS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. AT 6 PM THIS EVENING IT WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY EAST. RAIN
AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS MORNING...
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WIND
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER RISES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING ALONG BEAVER CREEK NEAR SACO AND
HINSDALE AS WELL AS ON THE VARIOUS BRANCHES OF THE POPLAR RIVER
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL ON MONDAY.

WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...RIVER RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG BEAVER CREEK...AND THE MILK AND
POPLAR RIVERS. MANY OTHER STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALSO SEE HIGH WATER. EBERT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281507
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
907 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING VERY STRONG
WINDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION TODAY. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
COOL TEMPS A BIG GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARD
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE A TROWAL FEATURE IS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THE THREAT FOR AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES
TODAY.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE LOW WINDS UP...WITH SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WINDS
BY LATE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT 50 TO 70 KNOT 850MB
WINDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DAMPEN OUT THESE WINDS FROM
BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE...BUT COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME
DOWNWARD ACCELERATION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG SPEEDS IN THE MODELS
EXPECTED HIGH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SUPPRESSING HEATING AS WELL THE COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE
LOW. WINDS AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW REACHES MANITOBA WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. EBERT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HOT HIGH PRESSURE FROM DOWN SOUTH
WILL REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS COOL SURFACE AIR SHALLOWS OUT
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. GAH

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NUNAVUT NORTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. A LARGE HOT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
WILL BE WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN SEMI ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERN FLOW. FARTHER NORTHWEST A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH COULD LET A SHORTWAVE OR TOW FLY OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.... MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY... WARM CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY TO MONDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVES INT EH FLOW WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN ALBERTAN FRONT RANGE. TIMING IS UNKNOWN FOR EACH OF THESE
PASSAGES AND THEY QUICKLY KNOCK THE MODELS OUT OF FULL ALIGNMENT
DUE TO THEIR SUBTLY. POPS RISE BACK UP BUT DO NOT QUITE HIT
MENTION YET... DUE TO MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DURING THESE PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH BREAKS APART AND
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXITING THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THE
IMPACT HERE IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS FAVORS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH BLOCKS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE EC FAVORS THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE HERE
AND HAD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOME FORM OF
ALIGNMENT OCCURS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE LOWER AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE STACKED UP WHICH WILL BRING
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE TERMINAL AREAS TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AN EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER WHICH WILL GENERATE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THIS MORNING AT 6 AM THE STORM CENTER WAS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. AT 6 PM THIS EVENING IT WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BORDERS
BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN THAT
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL THEREFORE MOVE MOSTLY EAST. RAIN
AND WIND TAPER OFF IN LATE AFTERNOON AND RAIN MOSTLY ENDS BY
SUNSET WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR/IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE. ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE.

AREA WINDS: WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 THIS MORNING...
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WIND
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER RISES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING ALONG BEAVER CREEK NEAR SACO AND
HINSDALE AS WELL AS ON THE VARIOUS BRANCHES OF THE POPLAR RIVER
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FALL ON MONDAY.

WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...RIVER RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG BEAVER CREEK...AND THE MILK AND
POPLAR RIVERS. MANY OTHER STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALSO SEE HIGH WATER. EBERT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281155
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHHEAST SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z AS THE
DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST AND PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




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