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000
FXUS65 KTFX 010921
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
321 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY...FROM NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS TODAY...TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE WEST, A LOW
PRESSURE TROF OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE TROF MOVES OVER THE WEST
COAST, HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FALL AND THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OF THE TROF WILL DROP WELL SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. UNSETTLED, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE OVER THE ZONES AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FRIDAY AND A PUSH OF CANADIAN
AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BORDER COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD
SATURDAY AND ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMALS AND CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AGAIN UNDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT CONTINUE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
UPDATED 6Z TAFS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BREAK UP...BUT DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW...NO FOG/NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  36  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  35  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  63  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  61  32  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  52  28  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  59  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  65  38  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  60  36  67  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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000
FXUS65 KMSO 010919
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
319 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over
the Northern Rockies for the next several days. This ridge will
bring fairly clear skies with steady warming conditions.
Temperatures will be approaching above normal readings by Monday
and into Tuesday. The models are still indicating a slight
possibility of a shower and/or thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon
across Idaho county.

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as southwest
flow increases ahead of an upper level trough along the Pacific
Northwest coast. Highs will reach well into the 70s and low 80s
for many valley locations. A few diurnally driven thunderstorms
will also be possible.

Moisture will increase further Thursday and Friday as the area
remains under a broad trough of low pressure allowing for a
growing threat of showers and thunderstorms. It will remain warm
with instability parameters pointing toward a threat of a few
strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds and hail.

Showery and seasonably cool conditions are expected next weekend
as the broad trough remains across the Northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy fog has developed this morning in a few valley
locations across north central Idaho up into northwest Montana.
This fog will dissipate by mid to late morning. As the ridge of
high pressure strengthens today, expect the mid level clouds to
steadily diminish throughout the day. By this evening, fair
flying conditions are expected.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 010919
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
319 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over
the Northern Rockies for the next several days. This ridge will
bring fairly clear skies with steady warming conditions.
Temperatures will be approaching above normal readings by Monday
and into Tuesday. The models are still indicating a slight
possibility of a shower and/or thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon
across Idaho county.

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as southwest
flow increases ahead of an upper level trough along the Pacific
Northwest coast. Highs will reach well into the 70s and low 80s
for many valley locations. A few diurnally driven thunderstorms
will also be possible.

Moisture will increase further Thursday and Friday as the area
remains under a broad trough of low pressure allowing for a
growing threat of showers and thunderstorms. It will remain warm
with instability parameters pointing toward a threat of a few
strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds and hail.

Showery and seasonably cool conditions are expected next weekend
as the broad trough remains across the Northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy fog has developed this morning in a few valley
locations across north central Idaho up into northwest Montana.
This fog will dissipate by mid to late morning. As the ridge of
high pressure strengthens today, expect the mid level clouds to
steadily diminish throughout the day. By this evening, fair
flying conditions are expected.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010837
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE SHORT-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EXCEPT THE WRF WAS
THE OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLED THE PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING S OUT OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TONIGHT. WILL
DISCUSS THIS MORE BELOW.

UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. MIXING WILL BE UP TO AROUND 750 MB
WHICH PUTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS VORTICITY DROPS S OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WRF TRIES TO BRING THIS
FEATURE INTO E MT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MON
AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE VORTICITY INTO SD/NE. THE WRF
SHIFTS THE WAVE W INTO WY AND SE MT. AS A RESULT...THE WRF
GENERATES SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SE ZONES...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
ARE DRY. WILL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE WOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MON. MIXING WILL BE UP TO
750-700 MB SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MON NIGHT
UNDER THE RIDGE.

CONTEMPLATED THE NEED FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WAS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL NOT SUPPORT IT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN A STRONGER LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS WHICH PROMOTES BETTER
MIXING AND GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY BUT STILL LEFT A HINT OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY BEGINS A COOLING TREND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ON SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN. SUSPECT THAT
MAY SEE MORE THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS ROUND GIVEN ADDITIONAL SOLAR
INSOLATION POTENTIAL. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 038/068 042/075 046/079 049/080 051/075 048/064
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W
LVM 059 031/068 037/074 039/077 043/078 043/072 043/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    23/T    44/W
HDN 063 035/068 037/075 041/081 043/082 045/076 044/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 063 039/070 042/076 046/081 049/081 052/078 049/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 060 034/067 037/074 041/080 045/082 048/079 047/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    34/W
BHK 061 036/068 040/074 043/076 045/078 048/075 045/066
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/W
SHR 058 033/063 035/070 038/076 040/079 042/073 041/065
    0/U 00/U    10/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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000
FXUS65 KGGW 010834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A BROAD TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS... THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO ONTARIO. TO THE WEST A RIDGE RUNS UP THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN TURNS INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND NORTHERN ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS WEDGED BETWEEN
THESE TWO AIRMASSES UNDER NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONSTANTLY BUILD AS ITS PACIFIC PORTION GRADUALLY MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT WILL
MEET WITH THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
SURFACE TO CONTINUE LOWERING THE RH AND WARMING UP THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS. ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HIGHS BEGINNING IN
THE MID 60S TO REACH THE MID 70S QUICKLY. STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO KEEP POPS WELL BELOW MENTION. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH INTO MONTANA AND AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACTLY
HOW THE SYSTEM WILL SET UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

BIGELBACH


&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 010520
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOW SKIES SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. STILL HAVE SOME DENSER CLOUD COVERAGE WEST OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CUT BANK TO THE BIG HOLE
VALLEY, SO HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE, BUT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
BEGIN TO SETTLE IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TOMORROW.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
UPDATED 6Z TAFS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BREAK UP...BUT DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW...NO FOG/NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
WESTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY,
REACHING THE 70S BY MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO BREEZY. MPJ

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE ZONES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE. THE LOW CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS
FRIDAY AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  33  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  36  64  37  72 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  32  61  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  28  52  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  32  59  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  35  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  59  36  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 010520
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOW SKIES SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. STILL HAVE SOME DENSER CLOUD COVERAGE WEST OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CUT BANK TO THE BIG HOLE
VALLEY, SO HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE, BUT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
BEGIN TO SETTLE IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TOMORROW.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.
UPDATED 6Z TAFS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BREAK UP...BUT DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW...NO FOG/NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
WESTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY,
REACHING THE 70S BY MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO BREEZY. MPJ

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE ZONES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE. THE LOW CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS
FRIDAY AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  33  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  36  64  37  72 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  32  61  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  28  52  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  32  59  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  35  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  59  36  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010340
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

LOWERED POPS GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. STILL LEFT SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP NEAR THE NORTHEAST-FACING SLOPES IN MY SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ADDITIONAL CLEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO A LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT FOG
WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF BILLINGS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND A SMALLER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED. REST OF
FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED. RMS/MEIER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE VERY COOL AND
SOMETIMES WET WEATHER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING SUN
ACROSS THE EAST WAS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH CU BY LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE CU FIELD
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES...FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN RIVER AREAS EAST TO MILES CITY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY & MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM EACH
DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...SOMETHING THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...


MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION MENTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY
THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND WETTER AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA
AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE DOMINATES OUR REGION. CONTINUED WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO NORMAL. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...


CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL CAUSE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT.
A SMALL AREA OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SOUTH OF KBIL COULD
GENERATE SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. RMS/MEIER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/061 039/066 042/074 046/076 048/077 049/072 046/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
LVM 031/060 030/066 036/072 039/075 042/076 043/071 042/061
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
HDN 034/062 035/066 037/074 040/077 042/079 044/074 044/065
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 036/063 038/069 040/074 045/078 048/078 050/074 048/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 032/060 034/064 037/072 040/077 044/078 046/075 045/065
    00/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
BHK 031/061 036/067 039/072 041/074 043/075 046/071 043/062
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
SHR 028/059 032/065 034/068 037/072 040/075 041/071 040/062
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 010307
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOW SKIES SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. STILL HAVE SOME DENSER CLOUD COVERAGE WEST OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CUT BANK TO THE BIG HOLE
VALLEY, SO HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE, BUT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
BEGIN TO SETTLE IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TOMORROW.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY THINNING AND LIFTING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ON SUNDAY. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
WESTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY,
REACHING THE 70S BY MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO BREEZY. MPJ

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE ZONES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE. THE LOW CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS
FRIDAY AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  33  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  36  64  37  72 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  32  61  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  28  52  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  32  59  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  35  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  59  36  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 010307
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOW SKIES SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. STILL HAVE SOME DENSER CLOUD COVERAGE WEST OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CUT BANK TO THE BIG HOLE
VALLEY, SO HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE, BUT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
BEGIN TO SETTLE IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TOMORROW.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY THINNING AND LIFTING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ON SUNDAY. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
WESTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY,
REACHING THE 70S BY MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO BREEZY. MPJ

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE ZONES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE. THE LOW CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS
FRIDAY AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  33  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  36  64  37  72 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  32  61  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  28  52  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  32  59  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  35  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  59  36  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 010248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
848 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO
THE CWA AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS LEAD TO LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED
DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN.
REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUE TO BUILD. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FILLS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CONUS WITH
TWO EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW/STORM SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BECOME THE MAIN REGIONAL FEATURE
TONIGHT AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INCLUDING NEMONT.

THAT NARROW WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER ALBERTA INTO
MONDAY AND PUT NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING THICKNESS HEIGHTS TO AROUND 560DM BY 00Z TUESDAY
WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND. THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA PUMPING IN DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO UNUSUAL WILL BE
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
WILL BE REVERSED FROM THE WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE BRINGING IN DRY AIR
AS WELL. EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT.

SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT NORTHEAST MONTANA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS CONTINUED TO TREND UP CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING THIS LOW AND SPREADING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MONTANA...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS. WILL PUSH BACK
THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...ALSO EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SKC.

WINDS: EASTERLY LESS THAN 10KTS IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT. KGGW WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...
DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 010248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
848 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO
THE CWA AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS LEAD TO LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED
DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN.
REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUE TO BUILD. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FILLS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CONUS WITH
TWO EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW/STORM SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BECOME THE MAIN REGIONAL FEATURE
TONIGHT AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INCLUDING NEMONT.

THAT NARROW WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER ALBERTA INTO
MONDAY AND PUT NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING THICKNESS HEIGHTS TO AROUND 560DM BY 00Z TUESDAY
WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND. THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA PUMPING IN DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO UNUSUAL WILL BE
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
WILL BE REVERSED FROM THE WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE BRINGING IN DRY AIR
AS WELL. EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT.

SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT NORTHEAST MONTANA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS CONTINUED TO TREND UP CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING THIS LOW AND SPREADING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MONTANA...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS. WILL PUSH BACK
THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...ALSO EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SKC.

WINDS: EASTERLY LESS THAN 10KTS IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT. KGGW WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...
DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302338
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
WESTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY,
REACHING THE 70S BY MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO BREEZY. MPJ

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE ZONES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE. THE LOW CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS
FRIDAY AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY THINNING AND LIFTING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM THE EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ON SUNDAY. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  33  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  36  64  37  72 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  32  61  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  28  52  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  32  59  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  35  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  59  36  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302113
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE VERY COOL AND
SOMETIMES WET WEATHER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING SUN
ACROSS THE EAST WAS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH CU BY LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE CU FIELD
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES...FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN RIVER AREAS EAST TO MILES CITY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY & MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM EACH
DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...SOMETHING THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION MENTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY
THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND WETTER AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA
AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE DOMINATES OUR REGION. CONTINUED WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO NORMAL. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE NOTED
INTO THE EVENING INTO THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KLVM.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/061 039/066 042/074 046/076 048/077 049/072 046/064
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
LVM 031/060 030/066 036/072 039/075 042/076 043/071 042/061
    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
HDN 034/062 035/066 037/074 040/077 042/079 044/074 044/065
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 036/063 038/069 040/074 045/078 048/078 050/074 048/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 032/060 034/064 037/072 040/077 044/078 046/075 045/065
    10/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
BHK 031/061 036/067 039/072 041/074 043/075 046/071 043/062
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
SHR 028/059 032/065 034/068 037/072 040/075 041/071 040/062
    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302113
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE VERY COOL AND
SOMETIMES WET WEATHER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING SUN
ACROSS THE EAST WAS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH CU BY LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE CU FIELD
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES...FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN RIVER AREAS EAST TO MILES CITY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY & MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM EACH
DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...SOMETHING THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION MENTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY
THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND WETTER AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA
AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE DOMINATES OUR REGION. CONTINUED WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO NORMAL. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE NOTED
INTO THE EVENING INTO THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KLVM.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/061 039/066 042/074 046/076 048/077 049/072 046/064
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
LVM 031/060 030/066 036/072 039/075 042/076 043/071 042/061
    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
HDN 034/062 035/066 037/074 040/077 042/079 044/074 044/065
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 036/063 038/069 040/074 045/078 048/078 050/074 048/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 032/060 034/064 037/072 040/077 044/078 046/075 045/065
    10/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
BHK 031/061 036/067 039/072 041/074 043/075 046/071 043/062
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
SHR 028/059 032/065 034/068 037/072 040/075 041/071 040/062
    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302050
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
WESTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY,
REACHING THE 70S BY MONDAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TO BREEZY. MPJ

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE ZONES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE. THE LOW CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS
FRIDAY AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AIRMASS BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AFTER 20Z
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BUT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND INSTABILITY WILL RAISE CLOUD COVER ABOVE MVFR LEVELS BEYOND THIS
TIME. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z OR SO THEN WIDESPREAD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  33  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  36  64  37  72 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  32  61  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  28  52  27  56 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  32  59  32  66 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  35  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  59  36  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 302031
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
231 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...While much of northwest Montana has seen more sun
than clouds and have been precipitation-free, the rest of the
region has been plagued by heavy cloud cover and periodic rain
showers. The more steady rainfall that was present this morning
across west central Montana and north central Idaho has now become
more showery in nature, and will be on-and-off throughout the
evening. High pressure will begin to build overnight, helping to
further dry conditions out. As a result of this, many locations
(especially those in the mostly-clear valleys of northwest
Montana) should anticipate temperatures potentially dipping below
freezing tonight.

But hope is on the way with high pressure forecast to build
across the region on Sunday and persist till around Tuesday. This
will bring a rather quick return to sunny conditions with above
normal temperatures. By Tuesday a slowly approaching Pacific
trough will nudge the ridge east and start a slow increase of
moisture and high clouds. A brief shower or rumble of thunder may
be possible Tuesday afternoon across central Idaho.

Southwesterly flow will develop over north central Idaho and
western Montana on Wednesday which should result in the warmest
day of this week in most places (highs 10-15 degrees above
average).

There is an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday with a broad trough and low pressure system forecast to
move into the western US. If the forecast flow pattern holds, a
few of the thunderstorms on Thursday could become strong. The low
pressure system is likely to keep an influence on the weather in
north central Idaho and western Montana into next weekend, so more
seasonable temperatures and lingered precipitation can be planned
for.

&&

.AVIATION...Periodic rain showers will continue to move through
southwest and west central Montana, impacting KBTM, KMSO, and
KSMN through this evening before gradually tapering off. For northwest
Montana, including KGPI, we expect to see the least amount of
rainfall/cloud cover for this area. Fog and/or low stratus may
develop in some locations across the breadth of the Northern
Rockies, however the potential remains low at this time. If
anything, NW MT could clear out overnight and cause unseasonably
cold temperatures to occur. High pressure will then build for
Sunday onward, resulting in light winds, dry conditions, and fair
flying conditions.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 302013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
213 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FILLS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CONUS WITH
TWO EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW/STORM SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BECOME THE MAIN REGIONAL FEATURE
TONIGHT AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INCLUDING NEMONT.

THAT NARROW WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER ALBERTA INTO
MONDAY AND PUT NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING THICKNESS HEIGHTS TO AROUND 560DM BY 00Z TUESDAY
WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND. THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA PUMPING IN DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO UNUSUAL WILL BE
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
WILL BE REVERSED FROM THE WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE BRINGING IN DRY AIR
AS WELL. EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT.

SCT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT NORTHEAST MONTANA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS CONTINUED TO TREND UP CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING THIS LOW AND SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
MONTANA...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION RESULT IN LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS. WILL PUSH BACK THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
TO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...ALSO
EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO SKC.

WINDS: EASTERLY AT 10-20KTS...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10KTS AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. KGGW WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS.
GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301733
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

MOST OF FORECAST APPEARS VALID. HOWEVER, DECREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF BLAINE AND NORTHEASTERN FERGUS
COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD
INTO THE AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA PLAINS,
ALONG AND WEST OF A LEWISTOWN TO CUT BANK LINE. HERE, EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING-RELATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
JASZKA

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RESIDE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR -20C...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS
BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE TONIGHT...THUS SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING TREND.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ZONES AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THE LOW
CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AIRMASS BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AFTER 20Z
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BUT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND INSTABILITY WILL RAISE CLOUD COVER ABOVE MVFR LEVELS BEYOND THIS
TIME. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z OR SO THEN WIDESPREAD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  34  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  33  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  36  63  36 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  55  32  60  31 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  47  28  51  26 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  52  33  59  32 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  61  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  34  59  35 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301553
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
953 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

MOST OF FORECAST APPEARS VALID. HOWEVER, DECREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF BLAINE AND NORTHEASTERN FERGUS
COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD
INTO THE AREA. THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA PLAINS,
ALONG AND WEST OF A LEWISTOWN TO CUT BANK LINE. HERE, EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING-RELATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
JASZKA

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RESIDE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR -20C...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS
BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE TONIGHT...THUS SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING TREND.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ZONES AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THE LOW
CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1143Z.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROF LIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUSING WIDESPREAD CIGS ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  34  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  33  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  36  63  36 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  55  32  60  31 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  47  28  51  26 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  52  33  59  32 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  61  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  34  59  35 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
949 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

MOST OF FORECAST APPEARS VALID. HOWEVER, DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF BLAINE AND NORTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.
THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA PLAINS, ALONG AND
WEST OF A LEWISTOWN TO CUT BANK LINE. HERE, EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND DAYTIME HEATING-RELATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. JASZKA

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RESIDE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR -20C...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS
BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE TONIGHT...THUS SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING TREND.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ZONES AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THE LOW
CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1143Z.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROF LIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUSING WIDESPREAD CIGS ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  34  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  33  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  36  63  36 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  55  32  60  31 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  47  28  51  26 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  52  33  59  32 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  61  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  34  59  35 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301535
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOME ENERGY AND CLOUDS NORTHWEST ACROSS
WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS IS BATTLING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT ARE MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. A COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE OCCURRING AS WELL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
THESE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BIT OF SUN.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
WHERE SUNSHINE OCCURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE COUNTERACTED A BIT
BETTER WITH RISING HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH WAS NOT CASE
ON FRIDAY. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. ALL FOOTHILLS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED...INCLUDING KSHR AND KLVM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    6/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 301451 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY...AND FOR
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TODAY THERE IS STILL A MINOR LOW
PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT IS BEING FED
MOISTURE FROM A STRONGER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. THIS HAS CREATED A
BRIDGE OF CLOUDS THAT IS MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
FEATURE WILL DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO MORE
CLEARING. GRID EDITS WERE MAINLY TO ALIGN TO OBSERVATIONS.  SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SETUP... NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A
SPLIT FLOW WITH A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WYOMING AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. TO
THE WEST A WEAK RIDGE SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FARTHER WEST A LARGE RIDGE IS FORMING OFF THEIR COASTS.

TODAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND PUSH THE WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL FOR
ONE MORE DAY AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN OVER
ALBERTA AND PUT NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA PUMPING IN
DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE REVERSED FROM, THE
SOUTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE BRINGING IN DRY AIR AS WELL. EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING THIS LOW AND SPREADING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MONTANA...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS. WILL PUSH BACK
THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...ALSO EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RESIDE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR -20C...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE
AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE TONIGHT...THUS SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ZONES AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THE LOW
CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1143Z.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROF LIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUSING WIDESPREAD CIGS ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  34  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  33  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  36  63  36 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  55  32  60  31 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  47  28  51  26 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  52  33  59  32 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  61  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  34  59  35 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 300945
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
345 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...A broad trough continues to linger over the majority
of the United States as an embedded weak low circulates over the
Northern Rockies. This feature will continue to cause light
precipitation through the day. The current focus of precipitation
is moving through southwest and west central Montana. This band
of precipitation will drift to the west then become widespread
convective showers by the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm
could develop across southwest Montana and Lemhi county this
afternoon. Another area of precipitation is currently over
eastern Washington and will migrate southward into portions of
north central Idaho. Temperatures for today should be running near
normal for most locations. The exception will be southwest Montana
into Lemhi county where temperatures appear to be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal.

Showers should be steadily diminishing through out the night
tonight. The models are indicating that easterly winds could mix
down to surface over Flathead Lake this evening creating gusty and
choppy conditions. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will be possible during
the evening hours, impacting boaters on the lake.

High pressure will steadily become the dominant feature over the
Northern Rockies on Sunday through the first part of the week.
This ridge will cause a drying and warming trend for the region.
Temperatures should be running 5-10 degrees above normal by Monday
afternoon.

An upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will
increase southwesterly flow Tuesday-Thursday allowing warm
temperatures to continue with highs well into the 70s and low 80s
for many valley locations. Moisture will also be on the increase
for a growing threat of showers and thunderstorms, especially
Wednesday into Thursday.

The main energy with the trough will drop down the West Coast then
slowly push through the Desert Southwest Friday into next weekend.
This will leave the Northern Rockies in easterly flow leading to
seasonably cool temperatures and showery conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...A swath of light precipitation will continue to move
through southwest and west central Montana this morning. This
precipitation will cause low ceilings especially at KMSO and KBTM
through mid morning. Then the precipitation will become widespread
convection by the afternoon. A low threat exists for thunderstorms
near KSMN and KBTM during the late afternoon and early evening
time frame.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300915
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
315 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RESIDE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR -20C...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE
AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE TONIGHT...THUS SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ZONES AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THE LOW
CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
UPDATED TAFS THIS EVENING INCLUDE REMOVING THE FOG. INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THE TERMINALS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT HELENA/BOZEMAN FOR SAT
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF/LIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TERMINALS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUN THOUGH DUE TO MID CLOUDS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  34  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  33  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  36  63  36 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  55  32  60  31 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  47  28  51  26 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  52  33  59  32 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  61  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  34  59  35 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300902
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
302 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A
SPLIT FLOW WITH A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WYOMING AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. TO
THE WEST A WEAK RIDGE SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FARTHER WEST A LARGE RIDGE IS FORMING OFF THEIR COASTS.

TODAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND PUSH THE WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL FOR
ONE MORE DAY AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN OVER
ALBERTA AND PUT NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA PUMPING IN
DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE REVERSED FROM, THE
SOUTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE BRINGING IN DRY AIR AS WELL. EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING THIS LOW AND SPREADING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MONTANA...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS. WILL PUSH BACK
THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...ALSO EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300822
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
222 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. FOOTHILLS WILL
BE FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS OF 4KFT TO 7KFT CAN BE EXPECTED. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    8/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300822
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
222 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. FOOTHILLS WILL
BE FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS OF 4KFT TO 7KFT CAN BE EXPECTED. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    8/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300555
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY
PRECIPITATION BEING OBSERVED IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT ALONG AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MT/ID STATE LINE AND
OVER WESTERN TETON AND NORTHERN LEWIS & CLARK COUNTIES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MT BETWEEN LEWISTOWN AND GREAT FALLS, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, SO EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP OUT OF IT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UPSTREAM NEAR BILLINGS
HEADING OUR WAY, CURRENT FORECAST FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION OF FOG
FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FOG SITUATION AND LATER INCLUSION OF FOG FOR SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
UPDATED TAFS THIS EVENING INCLUDE REMOVING THE FOG. INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THE TERMINALS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT HELENA/BOZEMAN FOR SAT
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF/LIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TERMINALS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUN THOUGH DUE TO MID CLOUDS. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS
LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN
CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS UPPER LEVEL ACTION WILL END UP GRADUALLY
REDUCING CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  55  34  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  33  56  34  61 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  36  56  36  62 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  33  52  33  59 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  28  45  28  50 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  34  52  33  58 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  36  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  51  33  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300555
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY
PRECIPITATION BEING OBSERVED IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT ALONG AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MT/ID STATE LINE AND
OVER WESTERN TETON AND NORTHERN LEWIS & CLARK COUNTIES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MT BETWEEN LEWISTOWN AND GREAT FALLS, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, SO EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP OUT OF IT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UPSTREAM NEAR BILLINGS
HEADING OUR WAY, CURRENT FORECAST FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION OF FOG
FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FOG SITUATION AND LATER INCLUSION OF FOG FOR SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
UPDATED TAFS THIS EVENING INCLUDE REMOVING THE FOG. INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THE TERMINALS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT HELENA/BOZEMAN FOR SAT
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF/LIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TERMINALS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUN THOUGH DUE TO MID CLOUDS. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS
LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN
CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS UPPER LEVEL ACTION WILL END UP GRADUALLY
REDUCING CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  55  34  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  33  56  34  61 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  36  56  36  62 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  33  52  33  59 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  28  45  28  50 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  34  52  33  58 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  36  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  51  33  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300314
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
914 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY
PRECIPITATION BEING OBSERVED IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT ALONG AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MT/ID STATE LINE AND
OVER WESTERN TETON AND NORTHERN LEWIS & CLARK COUNTIES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MT BETWEEN LEWISTOWN AND GREAT FALLS, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, SO EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP OUT OF IT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UPSTREAM NEAR BILLINGS
HEADING OUR WAY, CURRENT FORECAST FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION OF FOG
FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FOG SITUATION AND LATER INCLUSION OF FOG FOR SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.

ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED MINOR DISTURBANCES
STRETCHING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EASTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVER MOST OF THE
REGION THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY WITH
SCATTERED -SHRASN ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER MTN RANGES IN
SOUTHWEST MT.  ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING AT KBZN/KHLN/KGTF/KLWT DUE TO PLENTIFUL
SURFACE MOISTURE AND SCATTERED CLOUD BREAKS PROVIDING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF VCFG AT THOSE AIRFIELDS BUT RAISED
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FT IN CASE CLOUDS DON`T BREAK.  WILL
REASSESS FOG ISSUE WHEN EVENING FORECAST MODELS ARRIVE FOR 06Z TAFS.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS
LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN
CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS UPPER LEVEL ACTION WILL END UP GRADUALLY
REDUCING CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  55  34  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  33  56  34  61 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  36  56  36  62 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  33  52  33  59 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  28  45  28  50 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  34  52  33  58 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  36  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  51  33  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300314
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
914 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY
PRECIPITATION BEING OBSERVED IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MT ALONG AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MT/ID STATE LINE AND
OVER WESTERN TETON AND NORTHERN LEWIS & CLARK COUNTIES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MT BETWEEN LEWISTOWN AND GREAT FALLS, BUT
THIS IS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, SO EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP OUT OF IT. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UPSTREAM NEAR BILLINGS
HEADING OUR WAY, CURRENT FORECAST FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION OF FOG
FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FOG SITUATION AND LATER INCLUSION OF FOG FOR SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.

ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED MINOR DISTURBANCES
STRETCHING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EASTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVER MOST OF THE
REGION THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY WITH
SCATTERED -SHRASN ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER MTN RANGES IN
SOUTHWEST MT.  ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING AT KBZN/KHLN/KGTF/KLWT DUE TO PLENTIFUL
SURFACE MOISTURE AND SCATTERED CLOUD BREAKS PROVIDING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF VCFG AT THOSE AIRFIELDS BUT RAISED
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FT IN CASE CLOUDS DON`T BREAK.  WILL
REASSESS FOG ISSUE WHEN EVENING FORECAST MODELS ARRIVE FOR 06Z TAFS.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS
LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN
CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS UPPER LEVEL ACTION WILL END UP GRADUALLY
REDUCING CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  55  34  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  33  56  34  61 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  36  56  36  62 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  33  52  33  59 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  28  45  28  50 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  34  52  33  58 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  36  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  51  33  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300235
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
835 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. ECHOS ON RADAR ACROSS THE CWA
ARE LIKELY NOT HITTING THE GROUND AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. POPS
WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT BUT WERE TWEAKED TO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FILL
IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION THERE TO WIND DOWN. HOWEVER
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SPINS UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVES EAST.
THIS WILL SEND PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA ON
SATURDAY...AND SETS UP A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY OF A HIGH IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR SKIES FROM THE NORTH AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BRINGING CLOUD
COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH
INTO NEMONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLOPS OVER INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND OUR NORTHWEST TO INITIATE A WARMING TREND AND CLEARING
SKIES.

OVERALL...DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS...AND WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS...WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS...NONE OF WHICH WERE NOTEWORTHY.

HOWEVER...THE USUALLY GOOD PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL IS NOW DROPPING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH IN TURN BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS LOW GIVEN THE TROUBLES ALL
MODELS HAVE IN A WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT LIKE WE WILL SEE ON
MONDAY. BUT...IF LATTER RUNS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND WE MAY NEED
TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SETUP... A TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND COLORADO. A
LARGE RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT AND RUNS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH IDAHO
AND INTO ALBERTA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER WEST... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG
WAVE TROUGH SETS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GROW IN
STRENGTH AND SLOWLY RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CORE OF THE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, FURTHER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD... RIDGE WILL TOPPLE OVER AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENTER MONTANA DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN PUSHING US INTO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH ENHANCED JETS,
GIVING RISE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS.   GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING GOOD FLYING WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE EAST.

AEH/TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300235
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
835 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. ECHOS ON RADAR ACROSS THE CWA
ARE LIKELY NOT HITTING THE GROUND AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. POPS
WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT BUT WERE TWEAKED TO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FILL
IN TONIGHT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION THERE TO WIND DOWN. HOWEVER
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SPINS UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVES EAST.
THIS WILL SEND PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA ON
SATURDAY...AND SETS UP A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY OF A HIGH IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR SKIES FROM THE NORTH AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BRINGING CLOUD
COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH
INTO NEMONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLOPS OVER INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND OUR NORTHWEST TO INITIATE A WARMING TREND AND CLEARING
SKIES.

OVERALL...DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS...AND WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

SCT


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS...WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS...NONE OF WHICH WERE NOTEWORTHY.

HOWEVER...THE USUALLY GOOD PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL IS NOW DROPPING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH IN TURN BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS LOW GIVEN THE TROUBLES ALL
MODELS HAVE IN A WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT LIKE WE WILL SEE ON
MONDAY. BUT...IF LATTER RUNS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND WE MAY NEED
TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SETUP... A TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND COLORADO. A
LARGE RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT AND RUNS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH IDAHO
AND INTO ALBERTA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER WEST... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG
WAVE TROUGH SETS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GROW IN
STRENGTH AND SLOWLY RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CORE OF THE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, FURTHER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD... RIDGE WILL TOPPLE OVER AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENTER MONTANA DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN PUSHING US INTO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH ENHANCED JETS,
GIVING RISE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS.   GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING GOOD FLYING WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE EAST.

AEH/TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300234
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
834 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
DYNAMIC UPPER LOW IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN EASTERN COLORADO...BUT
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT UP THRU WY INTO OUR
CWA THIS EVENING...FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA
OF PV ALONG THE WY/ID BORDER. THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR BUT THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON BLX RADAR IN
BIG HORN COUNTY UP THRU TREASURE COUNTY...AS WELL AS OVER OUR SW
MTNS. MAIN AREA OF LOW POPS OVER OUR MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TONIGHT BUT HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL PARTS
INCLUDING BILLINGS. STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR
CWA BUT OUR SOUTH WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PCPN BY
TOMORROW. FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND HAVE RAISED EXPECTED FORECAST LOWS JUST A BIT. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW AND AREA OF VORTICITY TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST LOW WILL EJECT A FEW AREAS OF
VORTICITY...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF MONTANA MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO
RAPID CITY AND AREAS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR THE SHERIDAN
AREA SO WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDA AS THE
ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN
WYOMING MONDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS TAKES THE LOW AND VORT AREA INTO
MINNESOTA. POPS WERE NOT ADDED INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SHOWER CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST ISSUANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
SATURDAY AND MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY 60 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SHORTWAVE WITH SHOWERS WORKING NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS 12Z GFS
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW A DRY
SCENARIO.

SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND THE REST
OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE 70S OR BETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS FOR THU-FRI,
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK LIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MVFR TO
TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST OF KMLS LATE TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR -SHRA WILL BE VC KSHR ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RMS/STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/053 036/060 039/065 041/071 044/074 046/075 047/072
    13/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
LVM 034/051 032/057 032/065 036/071 039/074 041/074 042/070
    22/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 035/056 034/061 035/066 037/071 039/075 041/076 044/074
    13/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
MLS 039/059 036/063 039/067 040/072 044/075 046/075 048/073
    11/E    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 035/055 032/059 034/064 037/071 040/074 042/075 044/075
    23/W    10/U    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
BHK 036/056 032/060 036/065 037/070 041/072 042/073 043/070
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
SHR 035/050 028/058 032/060 034/066 036/070 038/073 040/071
    36/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292346
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS
LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN
CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS UPPER LEVEL ACTION WILL END UP GRADUALLY
REDUCING CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.

ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED MINOR DISTURBANCES
STRETCHING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO EASTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVER MOST OF THE
REGION THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY WITH
SCATTERED -SHRASN ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER MTN RANGES IN
SOUTHWEST MT.  ANOTHER TOUGH CALL ON POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING AT KBZN/KHLN/KGTF/KLWT DUE TO PLENTIFUL
SURFACE MOISTURE AND SCATTERED CLOUD BREAKS PROVIDING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF VCFG AT THOSE AIRFIELDS BUT RAISED
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FT IN CASE CLOUDS DON`T BREAK.  WILL
REASSESS FOG ISSUE WHEN EVENING FORECAST MODELS ARRIVE FOR 06Z TAFS.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  55  34  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  33  56  34  61 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  36  56  36  62 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  33  52  33  59 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  28  45  28  50 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  34  52  33  58 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  36  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  51  33  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292052
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW AND AREA OF VORTICITY TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST LOW WILL EJECT A FEW AREAS OF
VORTICITY...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF MONTANA MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO
RAPID CITY AND AREAS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR THE SHERIDAN
AREA SO WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN
WYOMING MONDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS TAKES THE LOW AND VORT AREA INTO
MINNESOTA. POPS WERE NOT ADDED INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SHOWER CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST ISSUANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
SATURDAY AND MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY 60 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SHORTWAVE WITH SHOWERS WORKING NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS 12Z GFS
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW A DRY
SCENARIO.

SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND THE REST
OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE 70S OR BETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS FOR THU-FRI,
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK LIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND
SOUTH OF KBIL THIS EVENING...THEN EXPANDING TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AFTER 06Z SAT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SAT NEAR KSHR.
CONDITIONS COULD BE MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF KMLS AFTER 08Z SATURDAY.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/053 036/060 039/065 041/071 044/074 046/075 047/072
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
LVM 034/051 032/057 032/065 036/071 039/074 041/074 042/070
    32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 035/056 034/061 035/066 037/071 039/075 041/076 044/074
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
MLS 038/059 036/063 039/067 040/072 044/075 046/075 048/073
    11/E    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 035/055 032/059 034/064 037/071 040/074 042/075 044/075
    23/W    10/U    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
BHK 035/056 032/060 036/065 037/070 041/072 042/073 043/070
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
SHR 035/050 028/058 032/060 034/066 036/070 038/073 040/071
    46/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292052
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW AND AREA OF VORTICITY TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST LOW WILL EJECT A FEW AREAS OF
VORTICITY...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF MONTANA MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO
RAPID CITY AND AREAS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR THE SHERIDAN
AREA SO WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN
WYOMING MONDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS TAKES THE LOW AND VORT AREA INTO
MINNESOTA. POPS WERE NOT ADDED INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SHOWER CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST ISSUANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
SATURDAY AND MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY 60 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SHORTWAVE WITH SHOWERS WORKING NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS 12Z GFS
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW A DRY
SCENARIO.

SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND THE REST
OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE 70S OR BETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS FOR THU-FRI,
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK LIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND
SOUTH OF KBIL THIS EVENING...THEN EXPANDING TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AFTER 06Z SAT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SAT NEAR KSHR.
CONDITIONS COULD BE MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF KMLS AFTER 08Z SATURDAY.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/053 036/060 039/065 041/071 044/074 046/075 047/072
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
LVM 034/051 032/057 032/065 036/071 039/074 041/074 042/070
    32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 035/056 034/061 035/066 037/071 039/075 041/076 044/074
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
MLS 038/059 036/063 039/067 040/072 044/075 046/075 048/073
    11/E    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 035/055 032/059 034/064 037/071 040/074 042/075 044/075
    23/W    10/U    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
BHK 035/056 032/060 036/065 037/070 041/072 042/073 043/070
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
SHR 035/050 028/058 032/060 034/066 036/070 038/073 040/071
    46/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS
LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN
CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS UPPER LEVEL ACTION WILL END UP GRADUALLY
REDUCING CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH BROKEN LOW- TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL FUEL ISOLATED/SCATTERED...MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FROM 20Z TO AROUND 02Z SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY/AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG COULD CAUSE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  55  34  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  33  56  34  61 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  36  56  36  62 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  33  52  33  59 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  28  45  28  50 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  34  52  33  58 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  36  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  51  33  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
USA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS MOVE THIS
LOBE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN
CANADA. A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS UPPER LEVEL ACTION WILL END UP GRADUALLY
REDUCING CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH BROKEN LOW- TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL FUEL ISOLATED/SCATTERED...MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FROM 20Z TO AROUND 02Z SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY/AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG COULD CAUSE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  55  34  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  33  56  34  61 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  36  56  36  62 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  33  52  33  59 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  28  45  28  50 /  40  20  10  10
DLN  34  52  33  58 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  36  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  51  33  57 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 292043
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
243 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...As an upper level low pressure system circulates
directly over western Montana, it will continue to deliver streams
of precipitation across north central Idaho, as well as the
Bitterroot and Missoula valleys. Reports have come in that light
snow showers continue to persist across locations such as Lost
Trail Pass and east through Anaconda/Deer Lodge and into the
general Butte vicinity as well. Expect light snow to continue
tonight as well, though roads should only see very brief amounts
before snow melts.

As rain and/or snow continues through Saturday, this system will
be gradually exiting the region, eventually relieving much of the
region of any precipitation as we head into Sunday.

The wonky weather pattern continues into next week as high
pressure slowly builds over Canada and the Northwestern United
States (including Idaho & Montana) while the upper level low
(presently over the Northern Rockies) shifts into the Desert
Southwest. This will bring a quick warm up and some welcome
sunshine to the Northern Rockies starting Sunday and lasting
through Tuesday. This period of tranquil weather appears short
lived as yet another upper level trough approaches the west coast
by Tuesday, and slowly works its way inland through the middle of
next week. The resultant southwesterly flow will push
progressively increasing amounts of moisture into the Northern
Rockies Tuesday, and a growing threat for showers and
thunderstorms by Wednesday and Thursday.

But instead of the trough moving inland through the western
United States, forecast models are consistently wrapping energy
into a closed area of low pressure that will come ashore in
southern California late next week and shift to near the Grand
Canyon by next weekend. This would ultimately place the Northern
Rockies under yet another anomalous easterly flow pattern, with
seasonably cool temperatures and better chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers will continue to increase across the Northern
Rockies today with periodic light rain possible at all airfields.
While the showers may briefly be intense, minimal impacts to
ceilings and visibility are anticipated given their anticipated
short duration. Scattered showers are again in the forecast
Saturday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 292043
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
243 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...As an upper level low pressure system circulates
directly over western Montana, it will continue to deliver streams
of precipitation across north central Idaho, as well as the
Bitterroot and Missoula valleys. Reports have come in that light
snow showers continue to persist across locations such as Lost
Trail Pass and east through Anaconda/Deer Lodge and into the
general Butte vicinity as well. Expect light snow to continue
tonight as well, though roads should only see very brief amounts
before snow melts.

As rain and/or snow continues through Saturday, this system will
be gradually exiting the region, eventually relieving much of the
region of any precipitation as we head into Sunday.

The wonky weather pattern continues into next week as high
pressure slowly builds over Canada and the Northwestern United
States (including Idaho & Montana) while the upper level low
(presently over the Northern Rockies) shifts into the Desert
Southwest. This will bring a quick warm up and some welcome
sunshine to the Northern Rockies starting Sunday and lasting
through Tuesday. This period of tranquil weather appears short
lived as yet another upper level trough approaches the west coast
by Tuesday, and slowly works its way inland through the middle of
next week. The resultant southwesterly flow will push
progressively increasing amounts of moisture into the Northern
Rockies Tuesday, and a growing threat for showers and
thunderstorms by Wednesday and Thursday.

But instead of the trough moving inland through the western
United States, forecast models are consistently wrapping energy
into a closed area of low pressure that will come ashore in
southern California late next week and shift to near the Grand
Canyon by next weekend. This would ultimately place the Northern
Rockies under yet another anomalous easterly flow pattern, with
seasonably cool temperatures and better chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers will continue to increase across the Northern
Rockies today with periodic light rain possible at all airfields.
While the showers may briefly be intense, minimal impacts to
ceilings and visibility are anticipated given their anticipated
short duration. Scattered showers are again in the forecast
Saturday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292033
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FILL IN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION THERE TO WIND DOWN. HOWEVER
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SPINS UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVES EAST.
THIS WILL SEND PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA ON
SATURDAY...AND SETS UP A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY OF A HIGH IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR SKIES FROM THE NORTH AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BRINGING CLOUD
COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH
INTO NEMONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH FLOPS OVER INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND OUR NORTHWEST TO INITIATE A WARMING TREND AND CLEARING
SKIES.

OVERALL...DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS...AND WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST AS DESCRIBED BELOW STANDS...WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS...NONE OF WHICH WERE NOTEWORTHY.

HOWEVER...THE USUALLY GOOD PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL IS NOW DROPPING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH IN TURN BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. OTHER EXTENDED MODELS ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS LOW GIVEN THE TROUBLES ALL
MODELS HAVE IN A WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT LIKE WE WILL SEE ON
MONDAY. BUT...IF LATTER RUNS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND WE MAY NEED
TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SETUP... A TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND COLORADO. A
LARGE RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT AND RUNS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH IDAHO
AND INTO ALBERTA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT. FARTHER WEST... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG
WAVE TROUGH SETS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GROW IN
STRENGTH AND SLOWLY RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CORE OF THE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, FURTHER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD... RIDGE WILL TOPPLE OVER AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENTER MONTANA DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN PUSHING US INTO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH ENHANCED JETS,
GIVING RISE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS.   GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING GOOD FLYING WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10
KTS TONIGHT.

AEH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGE TO UPDATE SKY CONDITION THROUGH TODAY
AS PARTIAL CLEARING HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH BROKEN LOW- TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL FUEL ISOLATED/SCATTERED...MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FROM 20Z TO AROUND 02Z SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY/AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG COULD CAUSE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS A QUIETER...WARMER
AND DRYER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THUS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL YET.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  56  35 /  10  10  20   0
CTB  51  32  56  34 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  36  57  36 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  53  34  54  33 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  47  28  46  27 /  30  30  20  10
DLN  51  34  54  33 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  56  36  60  36 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  49  34  51  33 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291620
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGE TO UPDATE SKY CONDITION THROUGH TODAY
AS PARTIAL CLEARING HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1114Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING MAINLY VFR CIGS. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CAUSE WEAK INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS A QUIETER...WARMER
AND DRYER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THUS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL YET.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  56  35 /  10  10  20   0
CTB  51  32  56  34 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  36  57  36 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  53  34  54  33 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  47  28  46  27 /  30  30  20  10
DLN  51  34  54  33 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  56  36  60  36 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  49  34  51  33 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291548
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
948 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO PRECIP CHANCES
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING THAT IS ROTATING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. HOWEVER...BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT...THE WARM SUN WILL ALLOW CU
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE CLEARING
AREAS. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AT
TIMES TODAY...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IF ANY OF DURING THE
PAST 6 DAYS. HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ANY SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THINGS A BIT UNSTABLE.
THEREFORE...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS AROUND BILLINGS EASTWARD TO THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 12
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LOWS WERE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...OVER W MT AND THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THE W MT LOW
WASHES OUT WHILE THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW MOVES ENE TODAY SENDING ONLY
WEAK VORTICITY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE PROGS SHOWED ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIMITED QPF CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
ALSO WERE OVERDOING THEIR QPF OVER WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS
BACKED OFF POPS TODAY AND CONFINED THEM TO OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE WRF AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADDED THIS TO
THE FORECAST. HRRR SHOWED POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION W OF KBIL THIS
MORNING AND THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE WITH LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER KBIL...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO KS/NE TONIGHT AND ENERGY WILL
BE LIMITED OVER THE AREA. MODELS DID TRY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE N
TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. QPF CONTINUED TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SO WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.
BROUGHT SMALL CHANCES INTO FAR SE MT TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORS.
SAT WAS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER KS/NE AND A
RIDGE SETTLING N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FORMING A REX BLOCK. TRIMMED BACK INHERITED POPS TO LOW CHANCES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HAD HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...CLOSEST TO GOOD MOISTURE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND
MOISTURE GETS SUPPRESSED S. HAD POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERED THEM OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 800
MB AND 850 TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +8 DEGREES C. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO ALBERTA WILL
BEGIN TO DRY THE AIRMASS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BUT WARMING TO
NORMAL ON MONDAY. SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE 70S OR BETTER OR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE ASSURING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK
RELATIVELY LITE. BORSUM.
&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 037/053 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/074
    2/W 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 051 034/051 034/056 032/065 036/072 039/073 041/073
    2/W 32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 055 035/056 034/061 035/066 038/071 039/075 041/074
    2/W 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 056 038/059 036/063 037/067 041/071 044/074 045/073
    2/W 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 051 035/055 032/059 034/064 038/070 040/073 042/072
    2/W 22/W    10/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 053 035/057 033/061 035/065 038/069 040/070 041/069
    2/W 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
SHR 052 035/051 032/056 032/060 035/066 036/070 038/071
    2/W 25/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 291514 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
914 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A CIRCULATING COMA CLOUD
CENTER OVER THE DIVIDE THIS MORNING...GIVING NORTHEAST MONTANA A
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO CLEARLY SHOWING IS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH IS ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR SKIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT PICKING UP ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE THIS MORNING THAT WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10-15KT. FEW CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE
UPDATE.

SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON THE
WEATHER FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
CANADA PUSHES SOUTH. OTHER THEN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE MOST RECENT
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WARMEST READING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH...BUT SHOULD
STAY BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA. BY THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. EBERT



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND COLORADO. A LARGE RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT AND RUNS FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH IDAHO AND INTO ALBERTA AND THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
LARGE FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHEASTERN FLOW ALOFT.
FARTHER WEST... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS JUST OFF
THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GROW IN
STRENGTH AND SLOWLY RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CORE OF THE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, FURTHER INCREASING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD... RIDGE WILL TOPPLE OVER AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENTER MONTANA DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN PUSHING US INTO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH ENHANCED JETS,
GIVING RISE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS.   GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR. WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CREATE EXCELLENT
FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS: EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING... INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
517 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS A QUIETER...WARMER
AND DRYER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THUS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL YET.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1114Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING MAINLY VFR CIGS. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CAUSE WEAK INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  56  35 /  10  10  20   0
CTB  51  32  56  34 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  36  57  36 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  53  34  54  33 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  47  28  46  27 /  30  30  20  10
DLN  51  34  54  33 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  56  36  60  36 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  49  34  51  33 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
517 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARDS A QUIETER...WARMER
AND DRYER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. THUS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL YET.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ZONES OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST
OF THE CWA QUITE DRY WITH MOISTURE OVER ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT A LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TRENDING WARMER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND
TREND HIGHER TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS BY THURSDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1114Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA REMAIN UNDER LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CAUSING MAINLY VFR CIGS. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CAUSE WEAK INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  56  35 /  10  10  20   0
CTB  51  32  56  34 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  36  57  36 /  20  20  20  10
BZN  53  34  54  33 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  47  28  46  27 /  30  30  20  10
DLN  51  34  54  33 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  56  36  60  36 /   0  10  10   0
LWT  49  34  51  33 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 290959
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
359 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...A cloudy, showery day is in store for much of the
area. Rain showers currently over Clearwater and Idaho county
will increase in coverage this morning as a weak but moist low
pressure system spins over the area through today. By this
afternoon, the system will be over much of the Northern Rockies,
leading to showers over the mountains, which could at times drift
over valleys. Only light rainfall amounts are expected for western
Montana valleys with a few hundredths of an inch accumulation.
Totals of a few tenths are possible by the end of the day in north
central Idaho where the main focus of precipitation will be. Snow
will stay above 5000 to 6000 feet as snow levels slowly trend
upward.

Lingering showers will again give chances for light rain on
Saturday, but the overall accumulations will be lighter than on
Friday, as the low pressure moves to the south and away from our
area. Breezy east winds will accompany a transition throughout the
overnight and into Sunday, as ridge of high pressure begins to
establish itself overhead. This will lead to a warming and drying
trend through the middle of next week. Temperatures in the 70s are
forecast by Tuesday and Wednesday. Models hint at cooler, more
unsettled weather for the end of next week, but confidence in the
particular impacts remains low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...Model profiles suggest a slight chance for KBTM to
see some patchy fog or low stratus this morning, but given light
winds much of the night and a pattern not usually conducive for
fog formation, this possibility was discounted in the forecast.
Vicinity showers should affect most terminals this afternoon, with
minimal impact to operations. A lightning strike or two is
possible in the vicinity, primarily over the mountains, but
overall lack of instability will prevent this from being a
widespread threat. Mid level cloud decks continue throughout the
day and overnight tonight.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




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