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000
FXUS65 KTFX 180946
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  35  53  33 /  40  10  10  10
CTB  50  32  51  32 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  30  10  20  10
HVR  55  31  54  32 /  30   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180946
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  35  53  33 /  40  10  10  10
CTB  50  32  51  32 /  30  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  30  10  20  10
HVR  55  31  54  32 /  30   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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000
FXUS65 KGGW 180932
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
332 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...REACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER IS A
DISTINCT POTENTIAL NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE THE FRONT
WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH AND WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM FURTHER
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. GIVEN LOW THREAT DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR THE NEXT SHIFT.
MORE CONFIDENCE SURROUNDS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING THANKS TO ON GOING
CAA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN FINE SHAPE.

FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WINDS MAY RELAX SOME...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE AS THIS INITIAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES...A NEW ONE
MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ANOTHER OPTION MAY BE TO JUST EXTEND THE
EXISTING HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL LET
EXISTING LAKE WIND ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS
SURROUNDING DURATION OF LIGHTER WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MAKING A
GRADUAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT AS A TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CWA WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. ANY
SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL
COME TO AN END. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL
MEAN RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO AND AS UPPER RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND WESTERN
MONTANA. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE MILD AND DRY WEATHER AS THE
SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT STAY WELL TO THE EAST.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHOW UP ON
THURSDAY AS THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS A BLOCKING
FEATURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH THE HELP OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
SCHEDULED...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BE DROPPING TO THE 25
PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING IN A FEW AREAS. FUELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY AND WHILE GREEN UP HAS BEGUN THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO.
ONE LAST CONSIDERATION WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE THE LAST TO
EXPERIENCE THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SITUATION THEREFORE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
HEADLINES AS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE CRITERIA BEING MET. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE THE FORECAST
SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 180932
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
332 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...REACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER IS A
DISTINCT POTENTIAL NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE THE FRONT
WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH AND WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM FURTHER
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. GIVEN LOW THREAT DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR THE NEXT SHIFT.
MORE CONFIDENCE SURROUNDS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PERSISTING THANKS TO ON GOING
CAA BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN FINE SHAPE.

FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WINDS MAY RELAX SOME...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE AS THIS INITIAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES...A NEW ONE
MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ANOTHER OPTION MAY BE TO JUST EXTEND THE
EXISTING HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL LET
EXISTING LAKE WIND ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS
SURROUNDING DURATION OF LIGHTER WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

00Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MAKING A
GRADUAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT AS A TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CWA WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. ANY
SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL
COME TO AN END. THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL
MEAN RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO AND AS UPPER RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND WESTERN
MONTANA. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE MILD AND DRY WEATHER AS THE
SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT STAY WELL TO THE EAST.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHOW UP ON
THURSDAY AS THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS A BLOCKING
FEATURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HANDLING A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH THE HELP OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
SCHEDULED...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BE DROPPING TO THE 25
PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING IN A FEW AREAS. FUELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY AND WHILE GREEN UP HAS BEGUN THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO.
ONE LAST CONSIDERATION WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE THE LAST TO
EXPERIENCE THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SITUATION THEREFORE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
HEADLINES AS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE CRITERIA BEING MET. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND UPDATE THE FORECAST
SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 180927
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
326 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weak weather disturbance is still on track to
bring light valley rain and mountain snow showers, mainly along
the Continental Divide of western Montana today. Not a lot of
moisture will be associated with this system, so areas west of
the Divide in Montana and central Idaho will mainly only see an
increase in cloud cover. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the
system could create some light chop on area lakes this afternoon.
Once the front slides south later this afternoon and evening,
winds will switch out of the northeast, with increasing gusts,
especially across southwestern Montana and along the Continental
Divide.

A building high pressure to the west will keep the Northern
Rockies under a dry northwesterly flow Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to be around normal. The high pressure will begin to
migrate eastward Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures for the start
of the new work week, will likely be a few degrees above normal.
Highs for Monday will be in the upper 60s low 70s, with Tuesday
being even warmer, possibly seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s
for some.

Starting Wednesday through the rest of the week, forecast models
begin to differ a bit in forecast solutions. However, indications
are that the Northern Rockies will become more unstable as the
high pressure breaks down. So began raising the chances for
showers in the forecast beginning Wednesday. Some forecast models
are indicating the potential for scattered thunderstorms across
central Idaho and southwestern Montana Wednesday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.AVIATION...
A weather disturbance will influence mainly northwest Montana and
the Divide through Saturday night, increasing ridge winds and
cloud cover over the region. This disturbance will bring showers
generally along the Divide. Expect generally fair weather at the
TAF sites, with gusty afternoon winds 15 to 25 kts possible for
KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 180927
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
326 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weak weather disturbance is still on track to
bring light valley rain and mountain snow showers, mainly along
the Continental Divide of western Montana today. Not a lot of
moisture will be associated with this system, so areas west of
the Divide in Montana and central Idaho will mainly only see an
increase in cloud cover. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the
system could create some light chop on area lakes this afternoon.
Once the front slides south later this afternoon and evening,
winds will switch out of the northeast, with increasing gusts,
especially across southwestern Montana and along the Continental
Divide.

A building high pressure to the west will keep the Northern
Rockies under a dry northwesterly flow Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to be around normal. The high pressure will begin to
migrate eastward Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures for the start
of the new work week, will likely be a few degrees above normal.
Highs for Monday will be in the upper 60s low 70s, with Tuesday
being even warmer, possibly seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s
for some.

Starting Wednesday through the rest of the week, forecast models
begin to differ a bit in forecast solutions. However, indications
are that the Northern Rockies will become more unstable as the
high pressure breaks down. So began raising the chances for
showers in the forecast beginning Wednesday. Some forecast models
are indicating the potential for scattered thunderstorms across
central Idaho and southwestern Montana Wednesday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.AVIATION...
A weather disturbance will influence mainly northwest Montana and
the Divide through Saturday night, increasing ridge winds and
cloud cover over the region. This disturbance will bring showers
generally along the Divide. Expect generally fair weather at the
TAF sites, with gusty afternoon winds 15 to 25 kts possible for
KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 180927
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
326 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weak weather disturbance is still on track to
bring light valley rain and mountain snow showers, mainly along
the Continental Divide of western Montana today. Not a lot of
moisture will be associated with this system, so areas west of
the Divide in Montana and central Idaho will mainly only see an
increase in cloud cover. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the
system could create some light chop on area lakes this afternoon.
Once the front slides south later this afternoon and evening,
winds will switch out of the northeast, with increasing gusts,
especially across southwestern Montana and along the Continental
Divide.

A building high pressure to the west will keep the Northern
Rockies under a dry northwesterly flow Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to be around normal. The high pressure will begin to
migrate eastward Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures for the start
of the new work week, will likely be a few degrees above normal.
Highs for Monday will be in the upper 60s low 70s, with Tuesday
being even warmer, possibly seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s
for some.

Starting Wednesday through the rest of the week, forecast models
begin to differ a bit in forecast solutions. However, indications
are that the Northern Rockies will become more unstable as the
high pressure breaks down. So began raising the chances for
showers in the forecast beginning Wednesday. Some forecast models
are indicating the potential for scattered thunderstorms across
central Idaho and southwestern Montana Wednesday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.AVIATION...
A weather disturbance will influence mainly northwest Montana and
the Divide through Saturday night, increasing ridge winds and
cloud cover over the region. This disturbance will bring showers
generally along the Divide. Expect generally fair weather at the
TAF sites, with gusty afternoon winds 15 to 25 kts possible for
KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 180927
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
326 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weak weather disturbance is still on track to
bring light valley rain and mountain snow showers, mainly along
the Continental Divide of western Montana today. Not a lot of
moisture will be associated with this system, so areas west of
the Divide in Montana and central Idaho will mainly only see an
increase in cloud cover. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the
system could create some light chop on area lakes this afternoon.
Once the front slides south later this afternoon and evening,
winds will switch out of the northeast, with increasing gusts,
especially across southwestern Montana and along the Continental
Divide.

A building high pressure to the west will keep the Northern
Rockies under a dry northwesterly flow Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to be around normal. The high pressure will begin to
migrate eastward Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures for the start
of the new work week, will likely be a few degrees above normal.
Highs for Monday will be in the upper 60s low 70s, with Tuesday
being even warmer, possibly seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s
for some.

Starting Wednesday through the rest of the week, forecast models
begin to differ a bit in forecast solutions. However, indications
are that the Northern Rockies will become more unstable as the
high pressure breaks down. So began raising the chances for
showers in the forecast beginning Wednesday. Some forecast models
are indicating the potential for scattered thunderstorms across
central Idaho and southwestern Montana Wednesday afternoon and
evening.


&&

.AVIATION...
A weather disturbance will influence mainly northwest Montana and
the Divide through Saturday night, increasing ridge winds and
cloud cover over the region. This disturbance will bring showers
generally along the Divide. Expect generally fair weather at the
TAF sites, with gusty afternoon winds 15 to 25 kts possible for
KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180919
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
319 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH MONTANA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY PHASING WITH THE
UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT BILLINGS AROUND 930 AM
THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE LATE
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...I
STILL DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WE SHOULD SEE
INITIAL STRONG GUSTS AND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
FRONT...THEN SOME STRONGER GUSTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND 700MB WINDS INCREASING.

DESPITE THE WINDS..FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY
AS HUMIDITIES NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DECENT Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS RUNS INTO THE MOISTURE SWINGING UP FROM
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SO PROGGS CONTINUE TO
PAINT QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES
WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. WE HAVE HAD THIS
HANDLED PRETTY GOOD SO THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE POPS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST
LATE...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS UNSURE IF INSTABILITY FROM
SOUTHERN MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTER SUBSIDING AIR LATER
BEHIND FRONT. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS...GOING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
PRECIPITATION ENDS OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY
OUR REGION FALLS UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME INSTABILITY
IS APPARENT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS...WITH A LITTLE ENERGY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER ZONES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH BRISK WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TEMPS AND WINDS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON SLOWER
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE WARMEST TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL NOW OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...AVERAGING AROUND 15C ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES. THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PRETTY NICE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MERCURY READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS FAR AS
IMPACTS GO...THERE ARE NOT MANY TO WRITE ABOUT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY COMING VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE ONSET OF LARGER TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
ONSET OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH
WITH THE FROPA. SINGER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 035/056 034/060 037/071 041/074 043/071 041/068
    2/W 10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    33/W
LVM 060 032/055 033/064 035/073 038/076 039/073 038/067
    3/W 22/W    01/B    00/U    11/B    24/W    33/W
HDN 063 033/058 033/063 035/072 035/076 036/073 034/072
    2/W 10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 066 034/056 032/060 034/070 036/072 038/070 036/067
    1/N 10/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 065 031/055 029/058 032/069 033/071 036/071 035/066
    2/W 10/N    01/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 064 033/051 028/055 030/067 032/067 033/063 032/058
    3/W 12/W    01/U    00/B    00/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 060 032/053 031/059 032/067 036/072 037/072 037/067
    3/W 20/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180919
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
319 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH MONTANA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY PHASING WITH THE
UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT BILLINGS AROUND 930 AM
THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE LATE
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...I
STILL DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WE SHOULD SEE
INITIAL STRONG GUSTS AND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
FRONT...THEN SOME STRONGER GUSTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND 700MB WINDS INCREASING.

DESPITE THE WINDS..FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY
AS HUMIDITIES NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DECENT Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS RUNS INTO THE MOISTURE SWINGING UP FROM
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SO PROGGS CONTINUE TO
PAINT QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES
WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. WE HAVE HAD THIS
HANDLED PRETTY GOOD SO THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE POPS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST
LATE...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS UNSURE IF INSTABILITY FROM
SOUTHERN MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTER SUBSIDING AIR LATER
BEHIND FRONT. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS...GOING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
PRECIPITATION ENDS OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY
OUR REGION FALLS UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME INSTABILITY
IS APPARENT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS...WITH A LITTLE ENERGY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER ZONES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH BRISK WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TEMPS AND WINDS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON SLOWER
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE WARMEST TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL NOW OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...AVERAGING AROUND 15C ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES. THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PRETTY NICE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MERCURY READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS FAR AS
IMPACTS GO...THERE ARE NOT MANY TO WRITE ABOUT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY COMING VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE ONSET OF LARGER TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
ONSET OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH
WITH THE FROPA. SINGER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 035/056 034/060 037/071 041/074 043/071 041/068
    2/W 10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    33/W
LVM 060 032/055 033/064 035/073 038/076 039/073 038/067
    3/W 22/W    01/B    00/U    11/B    24/W    33/W
HDN 063 033/058 033/063 035/072 035/076 036/073 034/072
    2/W 10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 066 034/056 032/060 034/070 036/072 038/070 036/067
    1/N 10/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 065 031/055 029/058 032/069 033/071 036/071 035/066
    2/W 10/N    01/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 064 033/051 028/055 030/067 032/067 033/063 032/058
    3/W 12/W    01/U    00/B    00/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 060 032/053 031/059 032/067 036/072 037/072 037/067
    3/W 20/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180919
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
319 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH MONTANA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY PHASING WITH THE
UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT BILLINGS AROUND 930 AM
THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE LATE
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...I
STILL DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WE SHOULD SEE
INITIAL STRONG GUSTS AND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
FRONT...THEN SOME STRONGER GUSTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND 700MB WINDS INCREASING.

DESPITE THE WINDS..FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY
AS HUMIDITIES NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DECENT Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS RUNS INTO THE MOISTURE SWINGING UP FROM
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SO PROGGS CONTINUE TO
PAINT QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES
WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. WE HAVE HAD THIS
HANDLED PRETTY GOOD SO THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE POPS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST
LATE...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS UNSURE IF INSTABILITY FROM
SOUTHERN MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTER SUBSIDING AIR LATER
BEHIND FRONT. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS...GOING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
PRECIPITATION ENDS OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY
OUR REGION FALLS UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME INSTABILITY
IS APPARENT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS...WITH A LITTLE ENERGY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER ZONES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH BRISK WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TEMPS AND WINDS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON SLOWER
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE WARMEST TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL NOW OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...AVERAGING AROUND 15C ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES. THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PRETTY NICE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MERCURY READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS FAR AS
IMPACTS GO...THERE ARE NOT MANY TO WRITE ABOUT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY COMING VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE ONSET OF LARGER TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
ONSET OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH
WITH THE FROPA. SINGER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 035/056 034/060 037/071 041/074 043/071 041/068
    2/W 10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    33/W
LVM 060 032/055 033/064 035/073 038/076 039/073 038/067
    3/W 22/W    01/B    00/U    11/B    24/W    33/W
HDN 063 033/058 033/063 035/072 035/076 036/073 034/072
    2/W 10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 066 034/056 032/060 034/070 036/072 038/070 036/067
    1/N 10/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 065 031/055 029/058 032/069 033/071 036/071 035/066
    2/W 10/N    01/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 064 033/051 028/055 030/067 032/067 033/063 032/058
    3/W 12/W    01/U    00/B    00/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 060 032/053 031/059 032/067 036/072 037/072 037/067
    3/W 20/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180919
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
319 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH MONTANA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY PHASING WITH THE
UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT BILLINGS AROUND 930 AM
THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE LATE
AFTERNOON. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH
PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...I
STILL DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WE SHOULD SEE
INITIAL STRONG GUSTS AND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
FRONT...THEN SOME STRONGER GUSTS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND 700MB WINDS INCREASING.

DESPITE THE WINDS..FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY
AS HUMIDITIES NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DECENT Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND SOME OF THIS RUNS INTO THE MOISTURE SWINGING UP FROM
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SO PROGGS CONTINUE TO
PAINT QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES
WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. WE HAVE HAD THIS
HANDLED PRETTY GOOD SO THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE POPS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST
LATE...BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW AS UNSURE IF INSTABILITY FROM
SOUTHERN MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO COUNTER SUBSIDING AIR LATER
BEHIND FRONT. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS...GOING INTO TONIGHT WHILE
PRECIPITATION ENDS OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

AS THE SHORT WAVE PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY
OUR REGION FALLS UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME INSTABILITY
IS APPARENT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS...WITH A LITTLE ENERGY STILL
AFFECTING OUR FAR EASTERN BORDER ZONES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH BRISK WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TEMPS AND WINDS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON SLOWER
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE WARMEST TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL NOW OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...AVERAGING AROUND 15C ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES. THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PRETTY NICE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH
MERCURY READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS FAR AS
IMPACTS GO...THERE ARE NOT MANY TO WRITE ABOUT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY COMING VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE ONSET OF LARGER TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE
ONSET OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH
WITH THE FROPA. SINGER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 035/056 034/060 037/071 041/074 043/071 041/068
    2/W 10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    33/W
LVM 060 032/055 033/064 035/073 038/076 039/073 038/067
    3/W 22/W    01/B    00/U    11/B    24/W    33/W
HDN 063 033/058 033/063 035/072 035/076 036/073 034/072
    2/W 10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 066 034/056 032/060 034/070 036/072 038/070 036/067
    1/N 10/N    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 065 031/055 029/058 032/069 033/071 036/071 035/066
    2/W 10/N    01/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 064 033/051 028/055 030/067 032/067 033/063 032/058
    3/W 12/W    01/U    00/B    00/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 060 032/053 031/059 032/067 036/072 037/072 037/067
    3/W 20/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180454
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 180454
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRID TO BETTER
REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS DEPICTED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 180306
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRID TO BETTER REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS
DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MIDMORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 180306
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRID TO BETTER REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS
DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MIDMORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 180306
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRID TO BETTER REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS
DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MIDMORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 180306
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
906 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRID TO BETTER REFLECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE AS
DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL MONTANA BY DAYBREAK AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA BY MIDMORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
00Z NAM MODEL IS COMING IN WITH EVEN LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MID SHIFT WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION AFTER ALL 00Z
RUNS ARE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 180249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S BY MORNING. A CHANGE IN WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS THAT WILL LARGELY BE HIT OR MISS...WITH INCREASING GUSTY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
THREAT...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT RATHER ISSUE AN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
GOOD FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...AND HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION
IS WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
WITH WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 180249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S BY MORNING. A CHANGE IN WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS THAT WILL LARGELY BE HIT OR MISS...WITH INCREASING GUSTY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
THREAT...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT RATHER ISSUE AN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
GOOD FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...AND HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION
IS WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
WITH WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 180249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S BY MORNING. A CHANGE IN WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS THAT WILL LARGELY BE HIT OR MISS...WITH INCREASING GUSTY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
THREAT...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT RATHER ISSUE AN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
GOOD FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...AND HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION
IS WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
WITH WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 180249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S BY MORNING. A CHANGE IN WEATHER IS IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS THAT WILL LARGELY BE HIT OR MISS...WITH INCREASING GUSTY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL
HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
THREAT...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...BUT RATHER ISSUE AN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
GOOD FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...AND HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION
IS WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
WITH WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180206
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
806 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO ROTATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
MORE IN THIS AREA. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS AS MODELS WANT TO PUSH SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
WITH IT OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER IT IS GOING TO BE
PRETTY STARVED FOR MOISTURE ON THIS SIDE OF THE DIVIDE SO EXPECT
MAINLY A WIND EVENT FROM IT. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 45 MPH AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...


EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME N-NW AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED OCCASIONALLY ON SATURDAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180206
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
806 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO ROTATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
MORE IN THIS AREA. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS AS MODELS WANT TO PUSH SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
WITH IT OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER IT IS GOING TO BE
PRETTY STARVED FOR MOISTURE ON THIS SIDE OF THE DIVIDE SO EXPECT
MAINLY A WIND EVENT FROM IT. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 45 MPH AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...


EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME N-NW AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED OCCASIONALLY ON SATURDAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180206
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
806 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO ROTATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
MORE IN THIS AREA. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS AS MODELS WANT TO PUSH SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
WITH IT OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER IT IS GOING TO BE
PRETTY STARVED FOR MOISTURE ON THIS SIDE OF THE DIVIDE SO EXPECT
MAINLY A WIND EVENT FROM IT. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 45 MPH AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...


EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME N-NW AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED OCCASIONALLY ON SATURDAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180206
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
806 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO ROTATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
MORE IN THIS AREA. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS AS MODELS WANT TO PUSH SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
WITH IT OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER IT IS GOING TO BE
PRETTY STARVED FOR MOISTURE ON THIS SIDE OF THE DIVIDE SO EXPECT
MAINLY A WIND EVENT FROM IT. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 45 MPH AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...


EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME N-NW AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED OCCASIONALLY ON SATURDAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CANADIAN
BORDER AFTER 06Z, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY (20 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT TIMES) AT KCTB AND KHVR BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z, AT KGTF, KLWT, AND KHLN BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z, AND AT
KBZN BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD, POTENTIALLY CAUSING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE
VFR. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 16Z AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 172126
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
326 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROPS OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL THREAT...CHOSE
NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT RATHER
ISSUE THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
SOLID  FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...THEN HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION IS
WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MID-WEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING WEST AND
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 172126
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
326 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A DRAMATIC SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US SUNNY
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT...AS IT DROPS OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
ON SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN AND WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONNECTED WITH THESE STRONGER NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS MOST OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-DAY...THE ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE CONFINED TO SOME SMALL AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER. WITH THIS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL THREAT...CHOSE
NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT RATHER
ISSUE THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION WITH THESE POINTS OF EMPHASIS.

REGARDLESS...CHOSE TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE
SOLID  FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...THEN HINTS AT A BRIEF...HALF-DAY...LULL IN THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THEN A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LATTER PORTION IS
WELL INTO DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST...CHOSE TO LEAD WITH THIS LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING ONLY THIS FIRST TIME OF WIND THREAT FOR
NOW.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WE FIND OUR CWA IN A NORTH OR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLDER AIR AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER
OUR NE ZONES AND WARMER AIR OVER OUR SW ZONES. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING. CLOSED
LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER ONTARIO
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST ANOTHER TROF DIGS ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A VERY SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA LATE IN THE WEEK. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MID-WEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING WEST AND
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME ISOLATED HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
TRICKY. MOST OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY
HAPPENED BEFORE THE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30 TO 25 PERCENT...BUT
OUR SE CORNER ZONES...NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER MAY
JUST BARELY BECOME DRY AND WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUSE
CONCERN. SINCE THE AFFECTED AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE...CHOSE NOT TO LEAD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT RATHER RE-ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS UPDATED INFORMATION AND SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL
MESSAGE TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS.

WITH DRY AND DEAD FUELS STILL NOT GIVING WAY COMPLETELY TO THE
SPRING GREEN-UP...A HUMIDITY OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS AND SUDDEN WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...ANY FIRE START COULD QUICKLY SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON EVOLVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 172108
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 172108
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
308 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY SUN RISE AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND
SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ONLY GENERATE WEAK LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO
MOST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AND SINCE SINCE
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, UPSLOPE SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MIGHT BECOME A
BIT UNSTABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH SATURDAY MORNING AND, ALONG WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE,
SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND KEEP SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS BUT THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA
&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  30  52 /  10  50  10  10
CTB  37  50  28  51 /  30  50  10  10
HLN  35  53  30  53 /   0  40  10  10
BZN  33  55  30  51 /   0  30  10  10
WEY  28  49  25  45 /   0  30  10  20
DLN  32  57  30  53 /  10  30  10  20
HVR  40  55  29  53 /  10  30  10  10
LWT  38  48  28  47 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172026
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172026
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172026
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172026
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KMSO 172013
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
111 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weather disturbance will begin to influence
western Montana with a bit more of a breeze into this evening and
a few more clouds tonight into Saturday. However, it appears the
main instability and moisture surge with this disturbance will
mostly be along the Continental Divide and eastward. Winds should
further increase Saturday, but only light to moderate impacts to
western Montana lakes with some choppy wave conditions. From
Orofino to Grangeville...a relatively dry and stable northwest
flow, with light winds is expected into Saturday.

A generally dry northwest flow is expected Sunday with slightly
above normal temperatures.

High pressure should rebuild Monday into Wednesday next week
resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

There is a lot of model guidance variability during the later
part of next week. Interesting, although, is most of the guidance
is showing a return to showers by Thursday and Friday. However,
how exactly we eventually get to that more moist point is still to
be determined. We have increased showers in the forecasts for
Thursday and Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through
mid day Saturday. A weather disturbance will begin to influence
mainly northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide tonight
into Saturday. Initially, this will produce increasing mainly
ridge winds over higher terrain and a gradual increase in clouds.
The main threat of showers looks to be during the day Saturday,
with only a low probability along the divide for a few light
showers.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 172013
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
111 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weather disturbance will begin to influence
western Montana with a bit more of a breeze into this evening and
a few more clouds tonight into Saturday. However, it appears the
main instability and moisture surge with this disturbance will
mostly be along the Continental Divide and eastward. Winds should
further increase Saturday, but only light to moderate impacts to
western Montana lakes with some choppy wave conditions. From
Orofino to Grangeville...a relatively dry and stable northwest
flow, with light winds is expected into Saturday.

A generally dry northwest flow is expected Sunday with slightly
above normal temperatures.

High pressure should rebuild Monday into Wednesday next week
resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

There is a lot of model guidance variability during the later
part of next week. Interesting, although, is most of the guidance
is showing a return to showers by Thursday and Friday. However,
how exactly we eventually get to that more moist point is still to
be determined. We have increased showers in the forecasts for
Thursday and Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through
mid day Saturday. A weather disturbance will begin to influence
mainly northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide tonight
into Saturday. Initially, this will produce increasing mainly
ridge winds over higher terrain and a gradual increase in clouds.
The main threat of showers looks to be during the day Saturday,
with only a low probability along the divide for a few light
showers.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 171751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1749Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE
THROUGH KCTB AROUND 09Z AND THROUGH KGTF AND KHVR 11-12Z. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 171623
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE ZONES AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM
AND DRY TODAY. UPDATED TO RAISE SOME TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO
FRESHENED WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  68  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  68  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  58  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  62  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  69  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  66  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 171533 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING...ONLY FOR VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS. FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171441
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF WYOMING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...BUT OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO STALLS. THIS WILL MEAN A
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MONTANA ROCKIES ACROSS THE MONTANA ROCKIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY PHASING
WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND 850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST
PART. THUS...I DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY EITHER AS HUMIDITIES
NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE IS SOME DECENT Q
VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING
OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND OUR POPS ARE ALREADY REFLECTIVE OF
THIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO POPS. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM
IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS FAR AS MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE CONCERNED. STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP USHER IN
RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL SEE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BACK INTO THE
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 039/062 035/056 035/063 038/070 041/070 042/070
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/U    01/B    12/W
LVM 067 036/060 031/055 034/064 035/071 038/073 039/068
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 068 034/065 033/058 033/064 035/072 036/072 035/073
    0/U 03/W    11/B    11/U    00/U    01/B    12/W
MLS 070 037/068 034/057 032/060 034/068 035/069 036/066
    0/U 02/W    11/N    00/N    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 067 034/065 031/055 031/057 032/067 033/068 034/066
    0/U 04/W    21/N    10/B    00/U    01/B    12/W
BHK 069 033/065 032/054 029/055 030/065 031/061 032/058
    0/U 03/W    41/N    00/N    00/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 062 034/061 032/055 032/059 034/067 034/068 035/069
    0/U 03/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171441
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF WYOMING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...BUT OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO STALLS. THIS WILL MEAN A
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MONTANA ROCKIES ACROSS THE MONTANA ROCKIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY PHASING
WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND 850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST
PART. THUS...I DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY EITHER AS HUMIDITIES
NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE IS SOME DECENT Q
VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING
OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND OUR POPS ARE ALREADY REFLECTIVE OF
THIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO POPS. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM
IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS FAR AS MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE CONCERNED. STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP USHER IN
RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL SEE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BACK INTO THE
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 039/062 035/056 035/063 038/070 041/070 042/070
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/U    01/B    12/W
LVM 067 036/060 031/055 034/064 035/071 038/073 039/068
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 068 034/065 033/058 033/064 035/072 036/072 035/073
    0/U 03/W    11/B    11/U    00/U    01/B    12/W
MLS 070 037/068 034/057 032/060 034/068 035/069 036/066
    0/U 02/W    11/N    00/N    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 067 034/065 031/055 031/057 032/067 033/068 034/066
    0/U 04/W    21/N    10/B    00/U    01/B    12/W
BHK 069 033/065 032/054 029/055 030/065 031/061 032/058
    0/U 03/W    41/N    00/N    00/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 062 034/061 032/055 032/059 034/067 034/068 035/069
    0/U 03/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171441
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF WYOMING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...BUT OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO STALLS. THIS WILL MEAN A
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MONTANA ROCKIES ACROSS THE MONTANA ROCKIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY PHASING
WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND 850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST
PART. THUS...I DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY EITHER AS HUMIDITIES
NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE IS SOME DECENT Q
VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING
OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND OUR POPS ARE ALREADY REFLECTIVE OF
THIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO POPS. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM
IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS FAR AS MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE CONCERNED. STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP USHER IN
RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL SEE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BACK INTO THE
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 039/062 035/056 035/063 038/070 041/070 042/070
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/U    01/B    12/W
LVM 067 036/060 031/055 034/064 035/071 038/073 039/068
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 068 034/065 033/058 033/064 035/072 036/072 035/073
    0/U 03/W    11/B    11/U    00/U    01/B    12/W
MLS 070 037/068 034/057 032/060 034/068 035/069 036/066
    0/U 02/W    11/N    00/N    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 067 034/065 031/055 031/057 032/067 033/068 034/066
    0/U 04/W    21/N    10/B    00/U    01/B    12/W
BHK 069 033/065 032/054 029/055 030/065 031/061 032/058
    0/U 03/W    41/N    00/N    00/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 062 034/061 032/055 032/059 034/067 034/068 035/069
    0/U 03/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171441
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF WYOMING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...BUT OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO STALLS. THIS WILL MEAN A
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MONTANA ROCKIES ACROSS THE MONTANA ROCKIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE DIVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY PHASING
WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRESSURE RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND 850MB WINDS ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST
PART. THUS...I DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK NECESSARY EITHER AS HUMIDITIES
NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT. THERE IS SOME DECENT Q
VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING
OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES PRETTY DRY. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND OUR POPS ARE ALREADY REFLECTIVE OF
THIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO POPS. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM
IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS FAR AS MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE CONCERNED. STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP USHER IN
RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL SEE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BACK INTO THE
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 039/062 035/056 035/063 038/070 041/070 042/070
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/U    01/B    12/W
LVM 067 036/060 031/055 034/064 035/071 038/073 039/068
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 068 034/065 033/058 033/064 035/072 036/072 035/073
    0/U 03/W    11/B    11/U    00/U    01/B    12/W
MLS 070 037/068 034/057 032/060 034/068 035/069 036/066
    0/U 02/W    11/N    00/N    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 067 034/065 031/055 031/057 032/067 033/068 034/066
    0/U 04/W    21/N    10/B    00/U    01/B    12/W
BHK 069 033/065 032/054 029/055 030/065 031/061 032/058
    0/U 03/W    41/N    00/N    00/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 062 034/061 032/055 032/059 034/067 034/068 035/069
    0/U 03/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  66  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  65  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  55  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  61  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  68  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  63  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HI-LINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW-TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN. WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN CUT BANK AROUND 09Z SAT AND
IN THE GREAT FALLS/HAVRE AREA AROUND 12Z SAT. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
WITH NEAR IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z SAT WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SAT...MAINLY
FROM CUT BANK NORTHWARD. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  66  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  65  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  55  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  61  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  68  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  63  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KMSO 171015
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will exist across the Northern Rockies through
tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be among the warmest of
this spring thus far, with 60s and 70s common at low elevations.

Clouds will increase overnight tonight, as a weak Pacific storm
system traverses western Montana along the Continental Divide.
Rain and mountain snow showers will develop during Saturday,
however occasional wind gusts to 25 mph during the late afternoon
will be the most significant weather impact. Clouds and weak
shower activity will linger through Sunday.

High pressure returns to the Northern Rockies on Monday and
Tuesday, with another period of daytime temperatures reaching the
60s and 70s at low elevations.

From Wednesday onward next week, the amount of forecast
uncertainty over the western CONUS becomes quite palpable. In
fact, the differences among model projections today compared to
yesterday has caused forecast confidence to diminish. Several
closed low circulations across the eastern Pacific appear to be
drifting in a disparate manner during this time, with no real
organized upper level feature emerging to replace the previous
high pressure. Bearing the forecast skepticism in mind, the
forecast from Wednesday through next weekend reflects climatology,
meaning occasional showers and daytime temperatures in the 50s and
60s at low elevations across the Northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies during the next
24 hours. Mostly clear skies and modest surface winds will be
present at area air terminals during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 171015
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will exist across the Northern Rockies through
tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be among the warmest of
this spring thus far, with 60s and 70s common at low elevations.

Clouds will increase overnight tonight, as a weak Pacific storm
system traverses western Montana along the Continental Divide.
Rain and mountain snow showers will develop during Saturday,
however occasional wind gusts to 25 mph during the late afternoon
will be the most significant weather impact. Clouds and weak
shower activity will linger through Sunday.

High pressure returns to the Northern Rockies on Monday and
Tuesday, with another period of daytime temperatures reaching the
60s and 70s at low elevations.

From Wednesday onward next week, the amount of forecast
uncertainty over the western CONUS becomes quite palpable. In
fact, the differences among model projections today compared to
yesterday has caused forecast confidence to diminish. Several
closed low circulations across the eastern Pacific appear to be
drifting in a disparate manner during this time, with no real
organized upper level feature emerging to replace the previous
high pressure. Bearing the forecast skepticism in mind, the
forecast from Wednesday through next weekend reflects climatology,
meaning occasional showers and daytime temperatures in the 50s and
60s at low elevations across the Northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies during the next
24 hours. Mostly clear skies and modest surface winds will be
present at area air terminals during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 171015
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will exist across the Northern Rockies through
tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be among the warmest of
this spring thus far, with 60s and 70s common at low elevations.

Clouds will increase overnight tonight, as a weak Pacific storm
system traverses western Montana along the Continental Divide.
Rain and mountain snow showers will develop during Saturday,
however occasional wind gusts to 25 mph during the late afternoon
will be the most significant weather impact. Clouds and weak
shower activity will linger through Sunday.

High pressure returns to the Northern Rockies on Monday and
Tuesday, with another period of daytime temperatures reaching the
60s and 70s at low elevations.

From Wednesday onward next week, the amount of forecast
uncertainty over the western CONUS becomes quite palpable. In
fact, the differences among model projections today compared to
yesterday has caused forecast confidence to diminish. Several
closed low circulations across the eastern Pacific appear to be
drifting in a disparate manner during this time, with no real
organized upper level feature emerging to replace the previous
high pressure. Bearing the forecast skepticism in mind, the
forecast from Wednesday through next weekend reflects climatology,
meaning occasional showers and daytime temperatures in the 50s and
60s at low elevations across the Northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies during the next
24 hours. Mostly clear skies and modest surface winds will be
present at area air terminals during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 171015
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will exist across the Northern Rockies through
tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be among the warmest of
this spring thus far, with 60s and 70s common at low elevations.

Clouds will increase overnight tonight, as a weak Pacific storm
system traverses western Montana along the Continental Divide.
Rain and mountain snow showers will develop during Saturday,
however occasional wind gusts to 25 mph during the late afternoon
will be the most significant weather impact. Clouds and weak
shower activity will linger through Sunday.

High pressure returns to the Northern Rockies on Monday and
Tuesday, with another period of daytime temperatures reaching the
60s and 70s at low elevations.

From Wednesday onward next week, the amount of forecast
uncertainty over the western CONUS becomes quite palpable. In
fact, the differences among model projections today compared to
yesterday has caused forecast confidence to diminish. Several
closed low circulations across the eastern Pacific appear to be
drifting in a disparate manner during this time, with no real
organized upper level feature emerging to replace the previous
high pressure. Bearing the forecast skepticism in mind, the
forecast from Wednesday through next weekend reflects climatology,
meaning occasional showers and daytime temperatures in the 50s and
60s at low elevations across the Northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies during the next
24 hours. Mostly clear skies and modest surface winds will be
present at area air terminals during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 171015
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will exist across the Northern Rockies through
tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be among the warmest of
this spring thus far, with 60s and 70s common at low elevations.

Clouds will increase overnight tonight, as a weak Pacific storm
system traverses western Montana along the Continental Divide.
Rain and mountain snow showers will develop during Saturday,
however occasional wind gusts to 25 mph during the late afternoon
will be the most significant weather impact. Clouds and weak
shower activity will linger through Sunday.

High pressure returns to the Northern Rockies on Monday and
Tuesday, with another period of daytime temperatures reaching the
60s and 70s at low elevations.

From Wednesday onward next week, the amount of forecast
uncertainty over the western CONUS becomes quite palpable. In
fact, the differences among model projections today compared to
yesterday has caused forecast confidence to diminish. Several
closed low circulations across the eastern Pacific appear to be
drifting in a disparate manner during this time, with no real
organized upper level feature emerging to replace the previous
high pressure. Bearing the forecast skepticism in mind, the
forecast from Wednesday through next weekend reflects climatology,
meaning occasional showers and daytime temperatures in the 50s and
60s at low elevations across the Northern Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies during the next
24 hours. Mostly clear skies and modest surface winds will be
present at area air terminals during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170937
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MT, BRINGING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID- AND
UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 70S. BUT A
CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL BC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE US/CAN
BORDER. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF AND ITS SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MT ON SAT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SAT MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE DAY. VALLEY AND PLAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 4500 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES AND ABOVE 6000-7000 FT IN SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH
EARLY SAT EVENING. MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BRIDGER/GALLATIN/MADISON RANGES ON SAT AFTN. PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 0.1 INCH OR LESS. THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT NIGHT, LEAVING
JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.

THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND SLOWS AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES ON SUN, LEAVING OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
POCKETS OF MOISTURE TRANSITING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDY SKIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
HILINE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS ON SUN AFTN/EVE.  THE COOLER AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LOW- TO MID 50S ON
SAT/SUN.
WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT.
THE PRECIP COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY
HIT/MISS RIGHT NOW.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  39  51  33 /   0   0  60  20
CTB  66  38  49  30 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  65  39  51  30 /   0   0  40  10
BZN  62  35  56  30 /   0   0  30  20
WEY  55  30  51  26 /   0   0  20  10
DLN  61  34  58  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  68  41  55  31 /   0  10  30  10
LWT  63  39  48  29 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170907
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO STALLS. THIS WILL MEAN A
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MONTANA ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE DIVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY PHASING WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE DAY. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH PRESSURE
RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 850MB WINDS
ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...I DO NOT SEE A
NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK
NECESSARY EITHER AS HUMIDITIES NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM
OUT. THERE IS SOME DECENT Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
PRETTY DRY. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE DIFFERENT MODELS
AND OUR POPS ARE ALREADY REFLECTIVE OF THIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO POPS. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS FAR AS MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE CONCERNED. STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP USHER IN
RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL SEE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BACK INTO THE
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR KSHR BY
DAYBREAK...BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CALM DAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 039/062 035/056 035/063 038/070 041/070 042/070
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/U    01/B    12/W
LVM 067 036/060 031/055 034/064 035/071 038/073 039/068
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 068 034/065 033/058 033/064 035/072 036/072 035/073
    0/U 03/W    11/B    11/U    00/U    01/B    12/W
MLS 070 037/068 034/057 032/060 034/068 035/069 036/066
    0/U 02/W    11/N    00/N    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 067 034/065 031/055 031/057 032/067 033/068 034/066
    0/U 04/W    21/N    10/B    00/U    01/B    12/W
BHK 069 033/065 032/054 029/055 030/065 031/061 032/058
    0/U 03/W    41/N    00/N    00/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 062 034/061 032/055 032/059 034/067 034/068 035/069
    0/U 03/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 170854
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 170854
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH ALBERTA... SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WHILE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED... STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS... WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RISE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LEAVING A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS
30 KNOT 850 MB WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL DRIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...LEADING TO INCREASING 500-1000MB THICKNESSES AND
THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASING BACK
TO THE LOW AND MID 60S BY MIDWEEK THOUGH A FEW 50S NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ARE LIKELY. THIS RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PROMINENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE IN SPREAD
WHICH LENDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
LONG RANGE HAS POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND CAN BE BETTER REFINED AS
PREDICTABILITY IMPROVES. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF/GFS EACH BRING A
NARROW TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE TRANSLATING A
BIT FURTHER EAST...BUT HANDLE THIS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...IN
PARTICULAR WITH REGARD TO LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 170443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 170158
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
758 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITIES...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 170158
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
758 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITIES...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170157
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
757 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF WITH THINNING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS LINE
WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FELL DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE WEST...WITH 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AHEAD OF TE FRONT.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NOT MANY
CHANGES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES
CITY TO BROADUS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND BILLINGS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE TAFS
YET. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/064 041/060 035/056 034/060 038/066 039/062 039/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 029/066 035/059 030/055 031/061 035/066 035/063 036/061
    00/U    03/W    32/W    11/U    11/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 032/067 037/066 035/058 033/062 035/068 036/064 035/064
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/068 039/069 035/057 032/059 034/064 035/061 035/061
    00/U    02/W    21/N    01/N    00/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 032/066 038/064 033/055 031/057 032/063 033/060 034/064
    00/U    14/W    31/N    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 032/068 036/065 034/054 029/055 030/060 031/056 030/060
    00/U    03/W    41/N    01/N    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/062 033/060 032/053 031/056 033/062 034/060 035/062
    00/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170157
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
757 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF WITH THINNING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS LINE
WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FELL DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE WEST...WITH 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AHEAD OF TE FRONT.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NOT MANY
CHANGES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES
CITY TO BROADUS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND BILLINGS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE TAFS
YET. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/064 041/060 035/056 034/060 038/066 039/062 039/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 029/066 035/059 030/055 031/061 035/066 035/063 036/061
    00/U    03/W    32/W    11/U    11/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 032/067 037/066 035/058 033/062 035/068 036/064 035/064
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/068 039/069 035/057 032/059 034/064 035/061 035/061
    00/U    02/W    21/N    01/N    00/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 032/066 038/064 033/055 031/057 032/063 033/060 034/064
    00/U    14/W    31/N    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 032/068 036/065 034/054 029/055 030/060 031/056 030/060
    00/U    03/W    41/N    01/N    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/062 033/060 032/053 031/056 033/062 034/060 035/062
    00/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170157
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
757 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF WITH THINNING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS LINE
WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FELL DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE WEST...WITH 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AHEAD OF TE FRONT.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NOT MANY
CHANGES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES
CITY TO BROADUS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND BILLINGS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE TAFS
YET. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/064 041/060 035/056 034/060 038/066 039/062 039/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 029/066 035/059 030/055 031/061 035/066 035/063 036/061
    00/U    03/W    32/W    11/U    11/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 032/067 037/066 035/058 033/062 035/068 036/064 035/064
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/068 039/069 035/057 032/059 034/064 035/061 035/061
    00/U    02/W    21/N    01/N    00/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 032/066 038/064 033/055 031/057 032/063 033/060 034/064
    00/U    14/W    31/N    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 032/068 036/065 034/054 029/055 030/060 031/056 030/060
    00/U    03/W    41/N    01/N    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/062 033/060 032/053 031/056 033/062 034/060 035/062
    00/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170157
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
757 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF WITH THINNING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS LINE
WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FELL DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE WEST...WITH 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AHEAD OF TE FRONT.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NOT MANY
CHANGES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES
CITY TO BROADUS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND BILLINGS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE TAFS
YET. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/064 041/060 035/056 034/060 038/066 039/062 039/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 029/066 035/059 030/055 031/061 035/066 035/063 036/061
    00/U    03/W    32/W    11/U    11/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 032/067 037/066 035/058 033/062 035/068 036/064 035/064
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/068 039/069 035/057 032/059 034/064 035/061 035/061
    00/U    02/W    21/N    01/N    00/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 032/066 038/064 033/055 031/057 032/063 033/060 034/064
    00/U    14/W    31/N    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 032/068 036/065 034/054 029/055 030/060 031/056 030/060
    00/U    03/W    41/N    01/N    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/062 033/060 032/053 031/056 033/062 034/060 035/062
    00/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 162342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK, KEEPING WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162052
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF WITH THINNING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS LINE
WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FELL DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW MOVES EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE WEST...WITH 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NOT MANY
CHANGES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES
CITY TO BROADUS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND BILLINGS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE TAFS
YET. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/064 041/060 035/056 034/060 038/066 039/062 039/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 029/066 035/059 030/055 031/061 035/066 035/063 036/061
    00/U    03/W    32/W    11/U    11/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 032/067 037/066 035/058 033/062 035/068 036/064 035/064
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/068 039/069 035/057 032/059 034/064 035/061 035/061
    00/U    02/W    21/N    01/N    00/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 032/066 038/064 033/055 031/057 032/063 033/060 034/064
    00/U    14/W    31/N    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 032/068 036/065 034/054 029/055 030/060 031/056 030/060
    00/U    03/W    41/N    01/N    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/062 033/060 032/053 031/056 033/062 034/060 035/062
    00/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 162052
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 162052
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162052
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF WITH THINNING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS LINE
WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FELL DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW MOVES EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE WEST...WITH 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NOT MANY
CHANGES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES
CITY TO BROADUS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND BILLINGS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE TAFS
YET. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/064 041/060 035/056 034/060 038/066 039/062 039/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 029/066 035/059 030/055 031/061 035/066 035/063 036/061
    00/U    03/W    32/W    11/U    11/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 032/067 037/066 035/058 033/062 035/068 036/064 035/064
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/068 039/069 035/057 032/059 034/064 035/061 035/061
    00/U    02/W    21/N    01/N    00/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 032/066 038/064 033/055 031/057 032/063 033/060 034/064
    00/U    14/W    31/N    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 032/068 036/065 034/054 029/055 030/060 031/056 030/060
    00/U    03/W    41/N    01/N    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/062 033/060 032/053 031/056 033/062 034/060 035/062
    00/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KMSO 162045
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...After a cool night TONIGHT things will quickly
rebound to very pleasant conditions with sunny skies and
temperatures warmer than normal. With the exception of a weak
weather disturbance SATURDAY (mostly impacting Northwest Montana)
these pleasant warm spring days will persist through the middle of
next week. Overnight temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s.

About the only impact to the region over the next 7 days will be
WINDS later FRIDAY AFTERNOON ahead of an approaching weak weather
disturbance. The biggest impact from these breezy conditions will
be to MACK DAYS at Flathead Lake with a few afternoon gusts of
15-25 mph. The other impact will be on SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...This weak disturbance will brush Northwest Montana and
produce scattered showers, especially along the Continental
Divide. In addition, temperatures will cool about 5-7 degrees to
near normal readings.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...High pressure, sunny
SKIES and temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal are likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...Normal high temperatures in western Montana April
17th-23rd is around 60 degrees with normal lows in the lower to
mid 30s. Temperatures in the LOWER HELLS CANYON in Idaho are a bit
warmer (mid to upper 60s).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flying conditions over the next 24 hours under a
high pressure ridge. Expect light winds at all terminals with the
exception will be an increasing southwest wind at KGPI after
17/2100z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 162045
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...After a cool night TONIGHT things will quickly
rebound to very pleasant conditions with sunny skies and
temperatures warmer than normal. With the exception of a weak
weather disturbance SATURDAY (mostly impacting Northwest Montana)
these pleasant warm spring days will persist through the middle of
next week. Overnight temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s.

About the only impact to the region over the next 7 days will be
WINDS later FRIDAY AFTERNOON ahead of an approaching weak weather
disturbance. The biggest impact from these breezy conditions will
be to MACK DAYS at Flathead Lake with a few afternoon gusts of
15-25 mph. The other impact will be on SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...This weak disturbance will brush Northwest Montana and
produce scattered showers, especially along the Continental
Divide. In addition, temperatures will cool about 5-7 degrees to
near normal readings.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...High pressure, sunny
SKIES and temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal are likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...Normal high temperatures in western Montana April
17th-23rd is around 60 degrees with normal lows in the lower to
mid 30s. Temperatures in the LOWER HELLS CANYON in Idaho are a bit
warmer (mid to upper 60s).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flying conditions over the next 24 hours under a
high pressure ridge. Expect light winds at all terminals with the
exception will be an increasing southwest wind at KGPI after
17/2100z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 162045
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...After a cool night TONIGHT things will quickly
rebound to very pleasant conditions with sunny skies and
temperatures warmer than normal. With the exception of a weak
weather disturbance SATURDAY (mostly impacting Northwest Montana)
these pleasant warm spring days will persist through the middle of
next week. Overnight temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s.

About the only impact to the region over the next 7 days will be
WINDS later FRIDAY AFTERNOON ahead of an approaching weak weather
disturbance. The biggest impact from these breezy conditions will
be to MACK DAYS at Flathead Lake with a few afternoon gusts of
15-25 mph. The other impact will be on SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...This weak disturbance will brush Northwest Montana and
produce scattered showers, especially along the Continental
Divide. In addition, temperatures will cool about 5-7 degrees to
near normal readings.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...High pressure, sunny
SKIES and temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal are likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...Normal high temperatures in western Montana April
17th-23rd is around 60 degrees with normal lows in the lower to
mid 30s. Temperatures in the LOWER HELLS CANYON in Idaho are a bit
warmer (mid to upper 60s).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flying conditions over the next 24 hours under a
high pressure ridge. Expect light winds at all terminals with the
exception will be an increasing southwest wind at KGPI after
17/2100z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 162045
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...After a cool night TONIGHT things will quickly
rebound to very pleasant conditions with sunny skies and
temperatures warmer than normal. With the exception of a weak
weather disturbance SATURDAY (mostly impacting Northwest Montana)
these pleasant warm spring days will persist through the middle of
next week. Overnight temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s.

About the only impact to the region over the next 7 days will be
WINDS later FRIDAY AFTERNOON ahead of an approaching weak weather
disturbance. The biggest impact from these breezy conditions will
be to MACK DAYS at Flathead Lake with a few afternoon gusts of
15-25 mph. The other impact will be on SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...This weak disturbance will brush Northwest Montana and
produce scattered showers, especially along the Continental
Divide. In addition, temperatures will cool about 5-7 degrees to
near normal readings.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...High pressure, sunny
SKIES and temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal are likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...Normal high temperatures in western Montana April
17th-23rd is around 60 degrees with normal lows in the lower to
mid 30s. Temperatures in the LOWER HELLS CANYON in Idaho are a bit
warmer (mid to upper 60s).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flying conditions over the next 24 hours under a
high pressure ridge. Expect light winds at all terminals with the
exception will be an increasing southwest wind at KGPI after
17/2100z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 162023
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
223 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND TO VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY (MOSTLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST MONTANA)
THESE PLEASANT WARM SPRING DAYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

ABOUT THE ONLY IMPACT(S) TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
BE WINDS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THESE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE TO MACK DAYS AT FLATHEAD LAKE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH AT TIMES. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE, SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO
AROUND) 70 ARE LIKELY.

&&

.CLIMATE... NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN MONTANA APRIL
17TH- 23RD IS AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER HELLS CANYON IN IDAHO ARE A BIT
WARMER (MID TO UPPER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT KGPI.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 162023
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
223 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT THINGS WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND TO VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY (MOSTLY IMPACTING NORTHWEST MONTANA)
THESE PLEASANT WARM SPRING DAYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

ABOUT THE ONLY IMPACT(S) TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
BE WINDS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THESE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE TO MACK DAYS AT FLATHEAD LAKE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH AT TIMES. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE, SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO
AROUND) 70 ARE LIKELY.

&&

.CLIMATE... NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN MONTANA APRIL
17TH- 23RD IS AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER HELLS CANYON IN IDAHO ARE A BIT
WARMER (MID TO UPPER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT KGPI.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KGGW 162022
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
222 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR
SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITY...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 162022
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
222 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR
SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHANGES TODAY WERE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY. IF ERRING IN
ANYTHING..TRIED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. LOWERED
HUMIDITY...RAISED TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY...WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
MORNING...EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONT...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BACK BELOW 15 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BMICKELSON

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KTFX 161736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 161736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 161736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 161736
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1735Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161527
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY INTO BIG HORN COUNTY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOUTH INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY ARE DIMINISHING AND MOST LIKELY ARE NOT
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...SCALED BACK
AREA OF POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL ROTATE CLOUDS UP INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUED FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
INTO THE BIG HORNS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SNOW AND MODERATE RAIN. WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO 6 AM THIS
MORNING. PROGGS DO FINALLY WEAKEN THE DYNAMICS GOING ON HERE BY
12Z AND I BELIEVE THINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO STRAY POCKETS OF
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THEN. SO INHERITED TREND OF DECREASING
POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. SOME JET AND VORTICITY DYNAMICS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SE CORNER OF
CARTER COUNTY. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THIS LOCATION.

WILL BANK ON TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY WET SNOW AND MOISTURE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS. THUS LOWERED
INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING THAT
COULD FURTHER LIMIT HEATING TODAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED...SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL ZONES.

FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...THEN THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S...AS
WELL AS TO SE MT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE SAT NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA ON SAT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON
SUN WITH SOME ENERGY IN THE FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL
THEN DRY OUT AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TUE. GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WED...SO CONTINUED THE POPS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF TRIED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU..WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST. HAD
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF WAS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE FRONT ON THU.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY...AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AROUND BILLINGS...LIVINGSTON...AND SHERIDAN. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 033/063 040/063 036/058 035/061 038/063 039/061
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 053 030/065 035/063 033/057 032/061 036/063 036/062
    0/U 00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 057 032/067 037/066 035/060 034/061 035/064 035/063
    2/W 00/U    02/W    12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 035/067 039/069 035/058 033/058 034/061 035/058
    1/B 00/U    02/W    21/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 032/066 038/064 033/057 032/057 032/060 033/058
    2/W 00/U    14/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 060 032/068 037/065 033/055 030/055 030/056 031/053
    2/W 00/U    03/W    31/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 030/061 035/061 033/055 032/057 033/060 034/060
    2/W 00/B    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161527
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY INTO BIG HORN COUNTY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOUTH INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY ARE DIMINISHING AND MOST LIKELY ARE NOT
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...SCALED BACK
AREA OF POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL ROTATE CLOUDS UP INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUED FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
INTO THE BIG HORNS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SNOW AND MODERATE RAIN. WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO 6 AM THIS
MORNING. PROGGS DO FINALLY WEAKEN THE DYNAMICS GOING ON HERE BY
12Z AND I BELIEVE THINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO STRAY POCKETS OF
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THEN. SO INHERITED TREND OF DECREASING
POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. SOME JET AND VORTICITY DYNAMICS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SE CORNER OF
CARTER COUNTY. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THIS LOCATION.

WILL BANK ON TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY WET SNOW AND MOISTURE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS. THUS LOWERED
INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING THAT
COULD FURTHER LIMIT HEATING TODAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED...SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL ZONES.

FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...THEN THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S...AS
WELL AS TO SE MT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE SAT NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA ON SAT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON
SUN WITH SOME ENERGY IN THE FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL
THEN DRY OUT AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TUE. GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WED...SO CONTINUED THE POPS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF TRIED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU..WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST. HAD
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF WAS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE FRONT ON THU.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY...AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AROUND BILLINGS...LIVINGSTON...AND SHERIDAN. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 033/063 040/063 036/058 035/061 038/063 039/061
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 053 030/065 035/063 033/057 032/061 036/063 036/062
    0/U 00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 057 032/067 037/066 035/060 034/061 035/064 035/063
    2/W 00/U    02/W    12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 035/067 039/069 035/058 033/058 034/061 035/058
    1/B 00/U    02/W    21/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 032/066 038/064 033/057 032/057 032/060 033/058
    2/W 00/U    14/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 060 032/068 037/065 033/055 030/055 030/056 031/053
    2/W 00/U    03/W    31/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 030/061 035/061 033/055 032/057 033/060 034/060
    2/W 00/B    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161527
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY INTO BIG HORN COUNTY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOUTH INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY ARE DIMINISHING AND MOST LIKELY ARE NOT
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...SCALED BACK
AREA OF POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL ROTATE CLOUDS UP INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUED FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
INTO THE BIG HORNS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SNOW AND MODERATE RAIN. WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO 6 AM THIS
MORNING. PROGGS DO FINALLY WEAKEN THE DYNAMICS GOING ON HERE BY
12Z AND I BELIEVE THINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO STRAY POCKETS OF
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THEN. SO INHERITED TREND OF DECREASING
POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. SOME JET AND VORTICITY DYNAMICS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SE CORNER OF
CARTER COUNTY. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THIS LOCATION.

WILL BANK ON TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY WET SNOW AND MOISTURE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS. THUS LOWERED
INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING THAT
COULD FURTHER LIMIT HEATING TODAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED...SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL ZONES.

FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...THEN THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S...AS
WELL AS TO SE MT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE SAT NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA ON SAT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON
SUN WITH SOME ENERGY IN THE FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL
THEN DRY OUT AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TUE. GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WED...SO CONTINUED THE POPS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF TRIED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU..WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST. HAD
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF WAS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE FRONT ON THU.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY...AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AROUND BILLINGS...LIVINGSTON...AND SHERIDAN. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 033/063 040/063 036/058 035/061 038/063 039/061
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 053 030/065 035/063 033/057 032/061 036/063 036/062
    0/U 00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 057 032/067 037/066 035/060 034/061 035/064 035/063
    2/W 00/U    02/W    12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 035/067 039/069 035/058 033/058 034/061 035/058
    1/B 00/U    02/W    21/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 032/066 038/064 033/057 032/057 032/060 033/058
    2/W 00/U    14/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 060 032/068 037/065 033/055 030/055 030/056 031/053
    2/W 00/U    03/W    31/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 030/061 035/061 033/055 032/057 033/060 034/060
    2/W 00/B    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161527
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS ROSEBUD COUNTY INTO BIG HORN COUNTY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THIS AREA
SOUTH INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY ARE DIMINISHING AND MOST LIKELY ARE NOT
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT...SCALED BACK
AREA OF POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL ROTATE CLOUDS UP INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH READINGS BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUED FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
INTO THE BIG HORNS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SNOW AND MODERATE RAIN. WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO 6 AM THIS
MORNING. PROGGS DO FINALLY WEAKEN THE DYNAMICS GOING ON HERE BY
12Z AND I BELIEVE THINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO STRAY POCKETS OF
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THEN. SO INHERITED TREND OF DECREASING
POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. SOME JET AND VORTICITY DYNAMICS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SE CORNER OF
CARTER COUNTY. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THIS LOCATION.

WILL BANK ON TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY WET SNOW AND MOISTURE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS. THUS LOWERED
INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING THAT
COULD FURTHER LIMIT HEATING TODAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED...SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL ZONES.

FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...THEN THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S...AS
WELL AS TO SE MT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE SAT NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA ON SAT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON
SUN WITH SOME ENERGY IN THE FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL
THEN DRY OUT AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TUE. GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WED...SO CONTINUED THE POPS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF TRIED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU..WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST. HAD
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF WAS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE FRONT ON THU.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY...AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AROUND BILLINGS...LIVINGSTON...AND SHERIDAN. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 033/063 040/063 036/058 035/061 038/063 039/061
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 053 030/065 035/063 033/057 032/061 036/063 036/062
    0/U 00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 057 032/067 037/066 035/060 034/061 035/064 035/063
    2/W 00/U    02/W    12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 035/067 039/069 035/058 033/058 034/061 035/058
    1/B 00/U    02/W    21/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 032/066 038/064 033/057 032/057 032/060 033/058
    2/W 00/U    14/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 060 032/068 037/065 033/055 030/055 030/056 031/053
    2/W 00/U    03/W    31/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 030/061 035/061 033/055 032/057 033/060 034/060
    2/W 00/B    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 161522
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
922 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1200Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THRU THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG
SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW.
BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 161517
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT OVER THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BRING MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FROM AN UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA...
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONTS
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RH AS THEY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH ON
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL FORM AN OPEN LONG-WAVE TROUGH.
DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THIS MERGER THE CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT-
WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH THIS FRONT
COMES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SHOWERS. A FAIRLY LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM FORMS UP EAST OF
MONTANA SO MOST ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME WARP-AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE OF THE STORM SUNDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WETTING RAINS.

A RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE WEST WHICH PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN
ITS USUAL SPOT...ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN COOL AND WET EAST AND
WARM AND DRY WEST. MONDAY LOOKS CONTINUED COOL BUT DRY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY STAYS CLOSE BY AND COULD
WANDER EITHER WAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER TO
DRIFT OVER. BUT MAINLY IT INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THE BOUNDARY
NUDGING EITHER WAY MAKES FOR LARGE TEMPERATURE SHIFTS. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS. WIND
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161217
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
617 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN
BIG HORNS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUED FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
INTO THE BIG HORNS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SNOW AND MODERATE RAIN. WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO 6 AM THIS
MORNING. PROGGS DO FINALLY WEAKEN THE DYNAMICS GOING ON HERE BY
12Z AND I BELIEVE THINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO STRAY POCKETS OF
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THEN. SO INHERITED TREND OF DECREASING
POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. SOME JET AND VORTICITY DYNAMICS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SE CORNER OF
CARTER COUNTY. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THIS LOCATION.

WILL BANK ON TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY WET SNOW AND MOISTURE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS. THUS LOWERED
INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING THAT
COULD FURTHER LIMIT HEATING TODAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED...SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL ZONES.

FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...THEN THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S...AS
WELL AS TO SE MT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE SAT NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA ON SAT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON
SUN WITH SOME ENERGY IN THE FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL
THEN DRY OUT AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TUE. GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WED...SO CONTINUED THE POPS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF TRIED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU..WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST. HAD
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF WAS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE FRONT ON THU.
ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR E AND S OF KBIL THROUGH
18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT
KSHR. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING W AND S OF KBIL. VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FROM
KBIL W AND S. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 033/063 040/063 036/058 035/061 038/063 039/061
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 053 030/065 035/063 033/057 032/061 036/063 036/062
    0/B 00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 057 032/067 037/066 035/060 034/061 035/064 035/063
    4/W 00/U    02/W    12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 035/067 039/069 035/058 033/058 034/061 035/058
    1/B 00/U    02/W    21/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 032/066 038/064 033/057 032/057 032/060 033/058
    2/W 00/U    14/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 060 032/068 037/065 033/055 030/055 030/056 031/053
    2/W 00/U    03/W    31/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 030/061 035/061 033/055 032/057 033/060 034/060
    2/W 00/B    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161217
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
617 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN
BIG HORNS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUED FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
INTO THE BIG HORNS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SNOW AND MODERATE RAIN. WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO 6 AM THIS
MORNING. PROGGS DO FINALLY WEAKEN THE DYNAMICS GOING ON HERE BY
12Z AND I BELIEVE THINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO STRAY POCKETS OF
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THEN. SO INHERITED TREND OF DECREASING
POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. SOME JET AND VORTICITY DYNAMICS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SE CORNER OF
CARTER COUNTY. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THIS LOCATION.

WILL BANK ON TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY WET SNOW AND MOISTURE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS. THUS LOWERED
INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING THAT
COULD FURTHER LIMIT HEATING TODAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED...SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL ZONES.

FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...THEN THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S...AS
WELL AS TO SE MT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE SAT NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA ON SAT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON
SUN WITH SOME ENERGY IN THE FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL
THEN DRY OUT AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TUE. GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WED...SO CONTINUED THE POPS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF TRIED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU..WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST. HAD
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF WAS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE FRONT ON THU.
ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR E AND S OF KBIL THROUGH
18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT
KSHR. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING W AND S OF KBIL. VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FROM
KBIL W AND S. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 033/063 040/063 036/058 035/061 038/063 039/061
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 053 030/065 035/063 033/057 032/061 036/063 036/062
    0/B 00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 057 032/067 037/066 035/060 034/061 035/064 035/063
    4/W 00/U    02/W    12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 035/067 039/069 035/058 033/058 034/061 035/058
    1/B 00/U    02/W    21/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 032/066 038/064 033/057 032/057 032/060 033/058
    2/W 00/U    14/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 060 032/068 037/065 033/055 030/055 030/056 031/053
    2/W 00/U    03/W    31/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 030/061 035/061 033/055 032/057 033/060 034/060
    2/W 00/B    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161217
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
617 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN
BIG HORNS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUED FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY
INTO THE BIG HORNS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SNOW AND MODERATE RAIN. WE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT TO 6 AM THIS
MORNING. PROGGS DO FINALLY WEAKEN THE DYNAMICS GOING ON HERE BY
12Z AND I BELIEVE THINGS WILL BREAK UP INTO STRAY POCKETS OF
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THEN. SO INHERITED TREND OF DECREASING
POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. SOME JET AND VORTICITY DYNAMICS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SE CORNER OF
CARTER COUNTY. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SO WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THIS LOCATION.

WILL BANK ON TEMPS BEING AFFECTED BY WET SNOW AND MOISTURE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS. THUS LOWERED
INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING THAT
COULD FURTHER LIMIT HEATING TODAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED...SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS
AND CENTRAL ZONES.

FRIDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL...BUT WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SHOWERS
AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA ON
SAT...THEN THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEET UP WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING OUT
OF CO TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS FROM KBIL W AND S...AS
WELL AS TO SE MT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE SAT NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA ON SAT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION ON
SUN WITH SOME ENERGY IN THE FLOW BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL
THEN DRY OUT AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TUE. GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WED...SO CONTINUED THE POPS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF TRIED TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU..WHILE BOTH MODELS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CA COAST. HAD
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WED AND THU...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF WAS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE FRONT ON THU.
ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR E AND S OF KBIL THROUGH
18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT
KSHR. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING W AND S OF KBIL. VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FROM
KBIL W AND S. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 033/063 040/063 036/058 035/061 038/063 039/061
    1/B 00/U    02/W    31/N    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 053 030/065 035/063 033/057 032/061 036/063 036/062
    0/B 00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 057 032/067 037/066 035/060 034/061 035/064 035/063
    4/W 00/U    02/W    12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 035/067 039/069 035/058 033/058 034/061 035/058
    1/B 00/U    02/W    21/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 032/066 038/064 033/057 032/057 032/060 033/058
    2/W 00/U    14/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 060 032/068 037/065 033/055 030/055 030/056 031/053
    2/W 00/U    03/W    31/N    11/N    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 030/061 035/061 033/055 032/057 033/060 034/060
    2/W 00/B    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 161157
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




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