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000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE OVER THE
TERMINAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH THE WORST VISIBILITY/THICKEST SMOKE LAYER
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS (20Z-03Z).
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z. THE MAIN IMPACT IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
06Z. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z, BUT THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272250
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
450 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MONSOONAL SURGES ARE DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO SOLVE...SO WE ARE
DOING A QUICK EARLY UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
MAIN IMPULSE ENERGY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG STATE BORDER SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. REDUCED POPS FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA
AS OF 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN AN
AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND GOOD
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
FORM....MOSTLY OVER LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF BILLINGS. AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY
SMALL HAIL BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND IN ITS
WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND AN ABSENCE OF
RAIN CHANCES TAKES HOLD UNTIL LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND A WEAK AND DYING COLD
FRONT THAT LIMPS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW
RELATIVE IN THE LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON OUT EAST. FURTHER WEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGHER...IN THE LOW 20S...BUT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE WITH 30-35MPH GUSTS.
WHILE FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
WATCH AS EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMAL WINDS AND RECENT
RAINS LENDS BELIEF THAT FUELS ARE NOT VERY STRESSED. FURTHER WEST
DO NOT BELIEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE
CRITERIA. WHILE DO NOT BELIEVE WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FIRE
CONCERNS WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED AND THOSE OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND NEED TO TAKE FIRE PRECAUTIONS SERIOUSLY.

AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. APPEARS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


AT THIS TIME...DETERMINISTIC EURO AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS SUPPORTED BY
MODEL SPREAD IN GEFS UP TO THIS TIME. MODELS THEN HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
BEHAVIOR OF LARGER SCALE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY
MAINTAIN SW FLOW.

A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN THE SW FLOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MOUNTAIN POPS
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO LOW INSTABILITY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF STORMS OUT IN THE FAR EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUES AS WELL NEAR A SECONDARY INSTABILITY SOURCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS LATE AS THU MORNING OR AS
EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON IN THE GFS AND EURO...RESPECTIVELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT MORNING AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT FRONT. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF EASTERN AREAS NEAR KMLS AND EXIT THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 062/097 063/082 054/083 055/086 059/085 054/080
    20/U    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/086 057/090 056/079 046/080 047/082 050/082 046/078
    30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 059/091 058/099 062/085 054/086 055/089 057/088 053/083
    20/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 062/093 063/101 065/086 057/086 057/090 060/090 057/085
    10/U    00/G    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 059/091 060/099 061/087 057/086 057/089 060/091 056/086
    21/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 058/090 058/097 061/087 056/086 056/088 058/091 056/086
    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 055/088 054/095 058/085 051/085 050/087 052/088 051/084
    21/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272250
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
450 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MONSOONAL SURGES ARE DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO SOLVE...SO WE ARE
DOING A QUICK EARLY UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
MAIN IMPULSE ENERGY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG STATE BORDER SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. REDUCED POPS FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA
AS OF 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN AN
AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND GOOD
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
FORM....MOSTLY OVER LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF BILLINGS. AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY
SMALL HAIL BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND IN ITS
WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND AN ABSENCE OF
RAIN CHANCES TAKES HOLD UNTIL LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND A WEAK AND DYING COLD
FRONT THAT LIMPS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW
RELATIVE IN THE LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON OUT EAST. FURTHER WEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGHER...IN THE LOW 20S...BUT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE WITH 30-35MPH GUSTS.
WHILE FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
WATCH AS EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMAL WINDS AND RECENT
RAINS LENDS BELIEF THAT FUELS ARE NOT VERY STRESSED. FURTHER WEST
DO NOT BELIEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE
CRITERIA. WHILE DO NOT BELIEVE WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FIRE
CONCERNS WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED AND THOSE OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND NEED TO TAKE FIRE PRECAUTIONS SERIOUSLY.

AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. APPEARS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


AT THIS TIME...DETERMINISTIC EURO AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS SUPPORTED BY
MODEL SPREAD IN GEFS UP TO THIS TIME. MODELS THEN HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
BEHAVIOR OF LARGER SCALE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY
MAINTAIN SW FLOW.

A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN THE SW FLOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MOUNTAIN POPS
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO LOW INSTABILITY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF STORMS OUT IN THE FAR EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUES AS WELL NEAR A SECONDARY INSTABILITY SOURCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS LATE AS THU MORNING OR AS
EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON IN THE GFS AND EURO...RESPECTIVELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT MORNING AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT FRONT. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF EASTERN AREAS NEAR KMLS AND EXIT THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 062/097 063/082 054/083 055/086 059/085 054/080
    20/U    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/086 057/090 056/079 046/080 047/082 050/082 046/078
    30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 059/091 058/099 062/085 054/086 055/089 057/088 053/083
    20/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 062/093 063/101 065/086 057/086 057/090 060/090 057/085
    10/U    00/G    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 059/091 060/099 061/087 057/086 057/089 060/091 056/086
    21/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 058/090 058/097 061/087 056/086 056/088 058/091 056/086
    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 055/088 054/095 058/085 051/085 050/087 052/088 051/084
    21/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272250
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
450 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MONSOONAL SURGES ARE DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO SOLVE...SO WE ARE
DOING A QUICK EARLY UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
MAIN IMPULSE ENERGY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG STATE BORDER SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. REDUCED POPS FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA
AS OF 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN AN
AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND GOOD
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
FORM....MOSTLY OVER LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF BILLINGS. AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY
SMALL HAIL BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND IN ITS
WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND AN ABSENCE OF
RAIN CHANCES TAKES HOLD UNTIL LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND A WEAK AND DYING COLD
FRONT THAT LIMPS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW
RELATIVE IN THE LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON OUT EAST. FURTHER WEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGHER...IN THE LOW 20S...BUT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE WITH 30-35MPH GUSTS.
WHILE FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
WATCH AS EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMAL WINDS AND RECENT
RAINS LENDS BELIEF THAT FUELS ARE NOT VERY STRESSED. FURTHER WEST
DO NOT BELIEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE
CRITERIA. WHILE DO NOT BELIEVE WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FIRE
CONCERNS WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED AND THOSE OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND NEED TO TAKE FIRE PRECAUTIONS SERIOUSLY.

AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. APPEARS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


AT THIS TIME...DETERMINISTIC EURO AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS SUPPORTED BY
MODEL SPREAD IN GEFS UP TO THIS TIME. MODELS THEN HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
BEHAVIOR OF LARGER SCALE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY
MAINTAIN SW FLOW.

A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN THE SW FLOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MOUNTAIN POPS
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO LOW INSTABILITY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF STORMS OUT IN THE FAR EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUES AS WELL NEAR A SECONDARY INSTABILITY SOURCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS LATE AS THU MORNING OR AS
EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON IN THE GFS AND EURO...RESPECTIVELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT MORNING AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT FRONT. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF EASTERN AREAS NEAR KMLS AND EXIT THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 062/097 063/082 054/083 055/086 059/085 054/080
    20/U    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/086 057/090 056/079 046/080 047/082 050/082 046/078
    30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 059/091 058/099 062/085 054/086 055/089 057/088 053/083
    20/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 062/093 063/101 065/086 057/086 057/090 060/090 057/085
    10/U    00/G    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 059/091 060/099 061/087 057/086 057/089 060/091 056/086
    21/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 058/090 058/097 061/087 056/086 056/088 058/091 056/086
    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 055/088 054/095 058/085 051/085 050/087 052/088 051/084
    21/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272250
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
450 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MONSOONAL SURGES ARE DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO SOLVE...SO WE ARE
DOING A QUICK EARLY UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
MAIN IMPULSE ENERGY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG STATE BORDER SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. REDUCED POPS FURTHER NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA
AS OF 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN AN
AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND GOOD
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
FORM....MOSTLY OVER LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF BILLINGS. AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY
SMALL HAIL BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND IN ITS
WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND AN ABSENCE OF
RAIN CHANCES TAKES HOLD UNTIL LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND A WEAK AND DYING COLD
FRONT THAT LIMPS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW
RELATIVE IN THE LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON OUT EAST. FURTHER WEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGHER...IN THE LOW 20S...BUT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE WITH 30-35MPH GUSTS.
WHILE FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
WATCH AS EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMAL WINDS AND RECENT
RAINS LENDS BELIEF THAT FUELS ARE NOT VERY STRESSED. FURTHER WEST
DO NOT BELIEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE
CRITERIA. WHILE DO NOT BELIEVE WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FIRE
CONCERNS WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED AND THOSE OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND NEED TO TAKE FIRE PRECAUTIONS SERIOUSLY.

AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. APPEARS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


AT THIS TIME...DETERMINISTIC EURO AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS SUPPORTED BY
MODEL SPREAD IN GEFS UP TO THIS TIME. MODELS THEN HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
BEHAVIOR OF LARGER SCALE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY
MAINTAIN SW FLOW.

A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN THE SW FLOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MOUNTAIN POPS
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO LOW INSTABILITY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF STORMS OUT IN THE FAR EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUES AS WELL NEAR A SECONDARY INSTABILITY SOURCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS LATE AS THU MORNING OR AS
EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON IN THE GFS AND EURO...RESPECTIVELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT MORNING AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT FRONT. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF EASTERN AREAS NEAR KMLS AND EXIT THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 062/097 063/082 054/083 055/086 059/085 054/080
    20/U    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/086 057/090 056/079 046/080 047/082 050/082 046/078
    30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 059/091 058/099 062/085 054/086 055/089 057/088 053/083
    20/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 062/093 063/101 065/086 057/086 057/090 060/090 057/085
    10/U    00/G    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 059/091 060/099 061/087 057/086 057/089 060/091 056/086
    21/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 058/090 058/097 061/087 056/086 056/088 058/091 056/086
    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 055/088 054/095 058/085 051/085 050/087 052/088 051/084
    21/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 272147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 272147
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
ARE CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE HAS THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE
OTHERS REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
STABILIZE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES. NUTTER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS STABILIZE ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  62  90 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  54  88  56  85 /   0  10  10  20
HLN  52  90  55  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  50  87  53  91 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  37  79  41  81 /  40   0  10  20
DLN  49  86  53  87 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  57  90  58  94 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  88  60  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272110
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
310 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

LAST PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA
AS OF 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN AN
AREA OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND GOOD
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
FORM....MOSTLY OVER LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF BILLINGS. AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS AND VERY
SMALL HAIL BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND IN ITS
WAKE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND AN ABSENCE OF
RAIN CHANCES TAKES HOLD UNTIL LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND A WEAK AND DYING COLD
FRONT THAT LIMPS INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW
RELATIVE IN THE LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON OUT EAST. FURTHER WEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGHER...IN THE LOW 20S...BUT
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE WITH 30-35MPH GUSTS.
WHILE FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
WATCH AS EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMAL WINDS AND RECENT
RAINS LENDS BELIEF THAT FUELS ARE NOT VERY STRESSED. FURTHER WEST
DO NOT BELIEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE
CRITERIA. WHILE DO NOT BELIEVE WATCH CRITERIA WILL BE MET...FIRE
CONCERNS WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED AND THOSE OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND NEED TO TAKE FIRE PRECAUTIONS SERIOUSLY.

AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. APPEARS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


AT THIS TIME...DETERMINISTIC EURO AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS SUPPORTED BY
MODEL SPREAD IN GEFS UP TO THIS TIME. MODELS THEN HAVE DIFFERENCES IN
BEHAVIOR OF LARGER SCALE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY
MAINTAIN SW FLOW.

A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN THE SW FLOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MOUNTAIN POPS
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO LOW INSTABILITY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF STORMS OUT IN THE FAR EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TUES AS WELL NEAR A SECONDARY INSTABILITY SOURCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS LATE AS THU MORNING OR AS
EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON IN THE GFS AND EURO...RESPECTIVELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT MORNING AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT FRONT. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF EASTERN AREAS NEAR KMLS AND EXIT THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 062/097 063/082 054/083 055/086 059/085 054/080
    30/U    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/086 057/090 056/079 046/080 047/082 050/082 046/078
    30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 059/091 058/099 062/085 054/086 055/089 057/088 053/083
    20/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 062/093 063/101 065/086 057/086 057/090 060/090 057/085
    20/U    00/G    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 059/091 060/099 061/087 057/086 057/089 060/091 056/086
    21/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 058/090 058/097 061/087 056/086 056/088 058/091 056/086
    20/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 055/088 054/095 058/085 051/085 050/087 052/088 051/084
    21/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 272058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.

REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
END BY 06Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING  VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST DUE TO SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 271559 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
959 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE MORE TEMPORAL DETAILS TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SPLIT POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS INTO 3-HOURLIES
TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION AND AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NE MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT ALL. SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES IS NOT AS IMPACTFUL TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THOUGH AN EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SKY CONDITIONS MAY APPEAR A BIT HAZY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE REGION...HOWEVER...FEWER
VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS COMPARED WITH THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY PATCHY SMOKE FOR TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE AREA OF HIGHER IMPACTS
AND ALSO FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A
DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME AREAS WITH PEAK HEATING.

SATURDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY HOT AND DRY...WITH PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CAREFULLY FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS BUT QUESTIONS
EXIST ABOUT WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH. HEAT WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +30
CELSIUS OVER THE CWA...AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY PARTICULATES/SMOKE FROM FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE READINGS BY SOMEWHAT
LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION...HOWEVER...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING...IT IS TOUGH NOT TO LEAN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

LASTLY...WITH THE COLD FRONT...EYES WILL TURN WEST WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE
REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE
TO THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 271559 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
959 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE MORE TEMPORAL DETAILS TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SPLIT POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS INTO 3-HOURLIES
TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION AND AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NE MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT ALL. SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES IS NOT AS IMPACTFUL TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.
BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THOUGH AN EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SKY CONDITIONS MAY APPEAR A BIT HAZY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE REGION...HOWEVER...FEWER
VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS COMPARED WITH THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY PATCHY SMOKE FOR TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE AREA OF HIGHER IMPACTS
AND ALSO FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A
DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME AREAS WITH PEAK HEATING.

SATURDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY HOT AND DRY...WITH PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CAREFULLY FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS BUT QUESTIONS
EXIST ABOUT WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH. HEAT WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +30
CELSIUS OVER THE CWA...AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY PARTICULATES/SMOKE FROM FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE READINGS BY SOMEWHAT
LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION...HOWEVER...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING...IT IS TOUGH NOT TO LEAN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

LASTLY...WITH THE COLD FRONT...EYES WILL TURN WEST WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE
REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE
TO THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KTFX 271542
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
940 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA BECOMES SCATTERED AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271542
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
940 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST FOR FIRE
ZONE 114 AND HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA BECOMES SCATTERED AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271511
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEFT AREAS OF
SMOKE IN THE GRIDS BUT HAVE NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE SMOKE IS
ELEVATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO FOR NOW VISIBILITIES ARE GOOD AND
AIR QUALITY CONCERNS ARE AT A MINIMUM. WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SMOKE CONCERNS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED.

LITTLE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST AROUND THE RIDGE WILL HELP
GIVE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
INCONSISTENT WITH SOME BEING VERY ACTIVE WHILE OTHERS HAVE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION. SREF PROBABILITIES OF HIGH CAPES HAVE
NOTICEABLY DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD AMOUNTS
OF SMOKE ALOFT...UNSURE IF WE WILL REALIZE THE HIGHER CAPES. WITH
THIS IN MIND LOWERED POPS 5 OR 10 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DID
NOT CHANGE POPS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY AREAS AND PREVENTING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SEEN IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE
STARTING OUT LOW THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO DEQ REPORTS...BUT
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PULLING HEAVIER
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION FRIDAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. A FEW IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCT CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/090 062/097 063/083 057/082 053/084 054/084
    3/T 30/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 086 052/088 055/091 054/080 050/079 046/081 048/082
    4/T 30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 092 060/092 060/099 062/088 056/084 052/086 053/087
    3/T 30/B    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/094 064/100 065/088 060/085 055/087 055/086
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 059/092 061/099 062/087 058/085 055/086 056/087
    3/T 21/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 059/092 059/097 062/088 057/085 054/085 054/087
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 086 056/088 055/095 057/087 053/084 050/085 050/085
    3/T 31/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271511
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEFT AREAS OF
SMOKE IN THE GRIDS BUT HAVE NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE SMOKE IS
ELEVATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO FOR NOW VISIBILITIES ARE GOOD AND
AIR QUALITY CONCERNS ARE AT A MINIMUM. WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SMOKE CONCERNS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED.

LITTLE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST AROUND THE RIDGE WILL HELP
GIVE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
INCONSISTENT WITH SOME BEING VERY ACTIVE WHILE OTHERS HAVE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION. SREF PROBABILITIES OF HIGH CAPES HAVE
NOTICEABLY DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD AMOUNTS
OF SMOKE ALOFT...UNSURE IF WE WILL REALIZE THE HIGHER CAPES. WITH
THIS IN MIND LOWERED POPS 5 OR 10 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DID
NOT CHANGE POPS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY AREAS AND PREVENTING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SEEN IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE
STARTING OUT LOW THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO DEQ REPORTS...BUT
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PULLING HEAVIER
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION FRIDAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. A FEW IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCT CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/090 062/097 063/083 057/082 053/084 054/084
    3/T 30/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 086 052/088 055/091 054/080 050/079 046/081 048/082
    4/T 30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 092 060/092 060/099 062/088 056/084 052/086 053/087
    3/T 30/B    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/094 064/100 065/088 060/085 055/087 055/086
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 059/092 061/099 062/087 058/085 055/086 056/087
    3/T 21/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 059/092 059/097 062/088 057/085 054/085 054/087
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 086 056/088 055/095 057/087 053/084 050/085 050/085
    3/T 31/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION... THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA BECOMES SCATTERED AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN
PLACE AND WILL ALLOW THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TO VIEW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY ADDITIONAL HIGHLITES FOR ZONE 114.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE AREA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ADDITIONAL HIGHLITES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ114.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 271015
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
415 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THOUGH AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKY CONDITIONS MAY APPEAR A BIT
HAZY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER...FEWER VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY PATCHY SMOKE
FOR TODAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE AREA OF
HIGHER IMPACTS AND ALSO FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A
DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME AREAS WITH PEAK HEATING.

SATURDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY HOT AND DRY...WITH PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CAREFULLY FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS BUT QUESTIONS
EXIST ABOUT WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH. HEAT WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +30
CELSIUS OVER THE CWA...AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY PARTICULATES/SMOKE FROM FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE READINGS BY SOMEWHAT
LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION...HOWEVER...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING...IT IS TOUGH NOT TO LEAN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

LASTLY...WITH THE COLD FRONT...EYES WILL TURN WEST WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE
REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FOR AREAS NEAR AND
WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 271015
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
415 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THOUGH AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKY CONDITIONS MAY APPEAR A BIT
HAZY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER...FEWER VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
AS COMPARED WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY PATCHY SMOKE
FOR TODAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE AREA OF
HIGHER IMPACTS AND ALSO FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A
DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME AREAS WITH PEAK HEATING.

SATURDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY HOT AND DRY...WITH PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CAREFULLY FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS BUT QUESTIONS
EXIST ABOUT WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH. HEAT WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +30
CELSIUS OVER THE CWA...AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY PARTICULATES/SMOKE FROM FIRES UPSTREAM OF THE
REGION MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE READINGS BY SOMEWHAT
LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION...HOWEVER...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING...IT IS TOUGH NOT TO LEAN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

LASTLY...WITH THE COLD FRONT...EYES WILL TURN WEST WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE
REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FOR AREAS NEAR AND
WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE SPREAD OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KTFX 270939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A
DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES.
SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

WIDESPREAD VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE REGIONAL WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD, SPREADING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT ANY STORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
A TAF SITE HOWEVER BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORM. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE IS
NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALLOW THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TO VIEW
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY ADDITIONAL HIGHLITES
FOR ZONE 114. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE
AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ114.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 270939
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
MAJOR IMPACT THIS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CREATE CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A
DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES.
SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST
SO HAVE AGREED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO PULL BACK POPS A BIT. AS
NOTED YESTERDAY, THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST ARE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH AN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS BUT IT APPEARS THAT BOTH
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS FEATURE CAN MOVE GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE VERY WARM LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
TEND TO SUPPORT RIDGE STABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE, MAINLY TO EASE BACK ON
POPS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH MODELS SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE OF THIS
WEEK. MPJ



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

WIDESPREAD VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE REGIONAL WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD, SPREADING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT ANY STORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
A TAF SITE HOWEVER BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORM. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 112. FURTHER SOUTH IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114 THERE IS
NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AND WILL ALLOW THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFT TO VIEW
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY ADDITIONAL HIGHLITES
FOR ZONE 114. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE
AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
AS AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ADDITIONAL HIGHLITES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  58  90  64 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  87  53  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  89  53  89  55 /  30  20  10  10
BZN  86  50  88  53 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  76  37  80  41 /  70  40  10  10
DLN  84  48  86  54 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  91  57  90  58 /  20  10   0  10
LWT  87  56  88  59 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ114.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY AREAS AND PREVENTING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SEEN IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE
STARTING OUT LOW THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO DEQ REPORTS...BUT
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PULLING HEAVIER
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION FRIDAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. A FEW IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MVFR
CONDITION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/090 062/097 063/083 057/082 053/084 054/084
    3/T 30/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 086 052/088 055/091 054/080 050/079 046/081 048/082
    4/T 30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 092 060/092 060/099 062/088 056/084 052/086 053/087
    3/T 30/B    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/094 064/100 065/088 060/085 055/087 055/086
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 059/092 061/099 062/087 058/085 055/086 056/087
    3/T 21/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 059/092 059/097 062/088 057/085 054/085 054/087
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 086 056/088 055/095 057/087 053/084 050/085 050/085
    3/T 31/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY AREAS AND PREVENTING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SEEN IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE
STARTING OUT LOW THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO DEQ REPORTS...BUT
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PULLING HEAVIER
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION FRIDAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. A FEW IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MVFR
CONDITION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/090 062/097 063/083 057/082 053/084 054/084
    3/T 30/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 086 052/088 055/091 054/080 050/079 046/081 048/082
    4/T 30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 092 060/092 060/099 062/088 056/084 052/086 053/087
    3/T 30/B    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/094 064/100 065/088 060/085 055/087 055/086
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 059/092 061/099 062/087 058/085 055/086 056/087
    3/T 21/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 059/092 059/097 062/088 057/085 054/085 054/087
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 086 056/088 055/095 057/087 053/084 050/085 050/085
    3/T 31/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY AREAS AND PREVENTING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SEEN IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE
STARTING OUT LOW THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO DEQ REPORTS...BUT
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PULLING HEAVIER
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION FRIDAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. A FEW IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MVFR
CONDITION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/090 062/097 063/083 057/082 053/084 054/084
    3/T 30/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 086 052/088 055/091 054/080 050/079 046/081 048/082
    4/T 30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 092 060/092 060/099 062/088 056/084 052/086 053/087
    3/T 30/B    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/094 064/100 065/088 060/085 055/087 055/086
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 059/092 061/099 062/087 058/085 055/086 056/087
    3/T 21/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 059/092 059/097 062/088 057/085 054/085 054/087
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 086 056/088 055/095 057/087 053/084 050/085 050/085
    3/T 31/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY AREAS AND PREVENTING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SEEN IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE
STARTING OUT LOW THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO DEQ REPORTS...BUT
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PULLING HEAVIER
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION FRIDAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. A FEW IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MVFR
CONDITION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/090 062/097 063/083 057/082 053/084 054/084
    3/T 30/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 086 052/088 055/091 054/080 050/079 046/081 048/082
    4/T 30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 092 060/092 060/099 062/088 056/084 052/086 053/087
    3/T 30/B    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/094 064/100 065/088 060/085 055/087 055/086
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 059/092 061/099 062/087 058/085 055/086 056/087
    3/T 21/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 059/092 059/097 062/088 057/085 054/085 054/087
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 086 056/088 055/095 057/087 053/084 050/085 050/085
    3/T 31/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270526
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS THIS EVENING. WHAT LITTLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DECREASED. HOWEVER, ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SPREAD BACK INTO
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY, SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS, AS EARLIER STORMS HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK.
COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

WIDESPREAD VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE REGIONAL WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD, SPREADING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT ANY STORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
A TAF SITE HOWEVER BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORM. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A
PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE AIR
QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW TO OUR
WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND
REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC
SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 270526
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS THIS EVENING. WHAT LITTLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DECREASED. HOWEVER, ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SPREAD BACK INTO
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY, SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS, AS EARLIER STORMS HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK.
COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

WIDESPREAD VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE REGIONAL WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD, SPREADING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT ANY STORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
A TAF SITE HOWEVER BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORM. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A
PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE AIR
QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW TO OUR
WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND
REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC
SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270526
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS THIS EVENING. WHAT LITTLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DECREASED. HOWEVER, ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SPREAD BACK INTO
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY, SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS, AS EARLIER STORMS HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK.
COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.

WIDESPREAD VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE REGIONAL WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE TAF PERIOD, SPREADING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT ANY STORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
A TAF SITE HOWEVER BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORM. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A
PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE AIR
QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW TO OUR
WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND
REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC
SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 270324
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...

THE INHERITED FORECAST IS HOLDING UP WELL AND CAPTURES THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUNDING AREAS OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN
THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE BORDER AND CAUSE IFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
ESPECIALLY AT KSDY. HOWEVER CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE TOO
HIGH FOR CONFIDENCE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY. BEST THINKING IS THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL STOP
SHORT OF THE ND/MT BORDER. WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY AS THE CLOUD
DECK APPROACHES.

SMOKE: EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW
DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
BECOMING WEST BY THE EVENING.

GAH



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 270324
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...

THE INHERITED FORECAST IS HOLDING UP WELL AND CAPTURES THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUNDING AREAS OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN
THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE BORDER AND CAUSE IFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
ESPECIALLY AT KSDY. HOWEVER CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE TOO
HIGH FOR CONFIDENCE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY. BEST THINKING IS THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL STOP
SHORT OF THE ND/MT BORDER. WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY AS THE CLOUD
DECK APPROACHES.

SMOKE: EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW
DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
BECOMING WEST BY THE EVENING.

GAH



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270251
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UN-IMPRESSIVE MONSOONAL SURGE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING/SOUTHERN
MONTANA THIS EVENING. ONLY AREA WITH DECENT THUNDERSTORM
INGREDIENTS IS IN SE MT/NE WY WHERE WE DO HAVE A SMALL COMPLEX
PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF LIGHTNING NORTH OF SUNDANCE. THIS MAY
SKIRT ALONG THE BORDER AND AFFECT THE ALZADA VICINITY.
OTHERWISE...MODELS NOT VERY HELPFUL AS THEY ARE BLOTCHY AND
INCONSISTENT WITH QPF PLACEMENT...TYPICAL OF AUGUST MONSOON FLOW.
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TRENDS AND KEPT BEST CHANCE IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WHERE NOTED IMPULSE DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE SOME FORCING. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM MOSTLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROADUS TO BILLINGS
TO LIVINGSTON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER US. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER AND
HELPED KEEP SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY FRIENDLY FOR
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MORE MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO HAVE NOT LOWERED POPS AS MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LATE
THIS EVENING...AFTER 6PM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER
NIGHT AS THE ENERGY ALOFT ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND HELP LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME BETTER LAPSE
RATES AND COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE IN GIVING MOST OF THE
AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAYS VALUES PROVIDING US WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD PROBABILITIES OF
SURFACE CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000 J/KG FOR MOST LOCATIONS SO
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. HOWEVER...SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK AND ONLY AROUND 10 OR 15 KNOTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST AS THE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES EAST.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS
COLD FRONT...AND THE ABSENCE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND CUT OFF THE CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL
WEEKEND. SOME PERIODS OF WESTERLY WINDS COULD ALLOW AREAS OF SMOKE
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO ADD
SMOKE TO THE GRIDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...REINFORCED BY
THE LOW SPREAD IN GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST A BIT LATER
INTO THE AREA THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PASSING THROUGH NO LATER
THAN 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND W. PORTIONS. IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LOW POPS
LIMITED TO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND EURO MAINTAIN SW FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT LIMITED INSTABILITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS NEAR
BEARTOOTHS AND FOOTHILLS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT..WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OUT IN EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST STATIONS...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES...INCLUDING KSHR...AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR
NORTH KMLS AND BAKER OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PLAINS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/090 060/089 062/095 063/083 057/083 053/082 053/082
    23/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 057/085 053/084 056/089 054/080 050/080 045/079 047/080
    14/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    11/B
HDN 064/093 058/091 060/097 062/088 056/085 052/084 052/085
    23/T    31/B    01/B    12/T    22/T    11/U    10/B
MLS 066/092 062/092 064/098 065/088 060/086 055/085 054/084
    12/T    21/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 065/087 058/091 061/097 062/087 058/086 055/084 055/085
    33/T    21/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
BHK 062/086 058/092 061/095 062/088 057/086 054/083 053/085
    23/T    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/U
SHR 063/085 054/084 055/093 057/087 053/085 050/083 049/083
    32/T    31/B    10/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270251
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UN-IMPRESSIVE MONSOONAL SURGE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING/SOUTHERN
MONTANA THIS EVENING. ONLY AREA WITH DECENT THUNDERSTORM
INGREDIENTS IS IN SE MT/NE WY WHERE WE DO HAVE A SMALL COMPLEX
PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF LIGHTNING NORTH OF SUNDANCE. THIS MAY
SKIRT ALONG THE BORDER AND AFFECT THE ALZADA VICINITY.
OTHERWISE...MODELS NOT VERY HELPFUL AS THEY ARE BLOTCHY AND
INCONSISTENT WITH QPF PLACEMENT...TYPICAL OF AUGUST MONSOON FLOW.
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TRENDS AND KEPT BEST CHANCE IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WHERE NOTED IMPULSE DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE SOME FORCING. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM MOSTLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROADUS TO BILLINGS
TO LIVINGSTON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER US. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER AND
HELPED KEEP SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY FRIENDLY FOR
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MORE MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO HAVE NOT LOWERED POPS AS MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LATE
THIS EVENING...AFTER 6PM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER
NIGHT AS THE ENERGY ALOFT ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND HELP LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME BETTER LAPSE
RATES AND COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE IN GIVING MOST OF THE
AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAYS VALUES PROVIDING US WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD PROBABILITIES OF
SURFACE CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000 J/KG FOR MOST LOCATIONS SO
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. HOWEVER...SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK AND ONLY AROUND 10 OR 15 KNOTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST AS THE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES EAST.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS
COLD FRONT...AND THE ABSENCE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND CUT OFF THE CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL
WEEKEND. SOME PERIODS OF WESTERLY WINDS COULD ALLOW AREAS OF SMOKE
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO ADD
SMOKE TO THE GRIDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...REINFORCED BY
THE LOW SPREAD IN GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST A BIT LATER
INTO THE AREA THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PASSING THROUGH NO LATER
THAN 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND W. PORTIONS. IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LOW POPS
LIMITED TO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND EURO MAINTAIN SW FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT LIMITED INSTABILITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS NEAR
BEARTOOTHS AND FOOTHILLS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT..WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OUT IN EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST STATIONS...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES...INCLUDING KSHR...AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR
NORTH KMLS AND BAKER OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PLAINS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/090 060/089 062/095 063/083 057/083 053/082 053/082
    23/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 057/085 053/084 056/089 054/080 050/080 045/079 047/080
    14/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    11/B
HDN 064/093 058/091 060/097 062/088 056/085 052/084 052/085
    23/T    31/B    01/B    12/T    22/T    11/U    10/B
MLS 066/092 062/092 064/098 065/088 060/086 055/085 054/084
    12/T    21/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 065/087 058/091 061/097 062/087 058/086 055/084 055/085
    33/T    21/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
BHK 062/086 058/092 061/095 062/088 057/086 054/083 053/085
    23/T    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/U
SHR 063/085 054/084 055/093 057/087 053/085 050/083 049/083
    32/T    31/B    10/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270251
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UN-IMPRESSIVE MONSOONAL SURGE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING/SOUTHERN
MONTANA THIS EVENING. ONLY AREA WITH DECENT THUNDERSTORM
INGREDIENTS IS IN SE MT/NE WY WHERE WE DO HAVE A SMALL COMPLEX
PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF LIGHTNING NORTH OF SUNDANCE. THIS MAY
SKIRT ALONG THE BORDER AND AFFECT THE ALZADA VICINITY.
OTHERWISE...MODELS NOT VERY HELPFUL AS THEY ARE BLOTCHY AND
INCONSISTENT WITH QPF PLACEMENT...TYPICAL OF AUGUST MONSOON FLOW.
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TRENDS AND KEPT BEST CHANCE IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WHERE NOTED IMPULSE DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE SOME FORCING. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM MOSTLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROADUS TO BILLINGS
TO LIVINGSTON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER US. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER AND
HELPED KEEP SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY FRIENDLY FOR
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MORE MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO HAVE NOT LOWERED POPS AS MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LATE
THIS EVENING...AFTER 6PM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER
NIGHT AS THE ENERGY ALOFT ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND HELP LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME BETTER LAPSE
RATES AND COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE IN GIVING MOST OF THE
AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAYS VALUES PROVIDING US WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD PROBABILITIES OF
SURFACE CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000 J/KG FOR MOST LOCATIONS SO
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. HOWEVER...SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK AND ONLY AROUND 10 OR 15 KNOTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST AS THE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES EAST.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS
COLD FRONT...AND THE ABSENCE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND CUT OFF THE CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL
WEEKEND. SOME PERIODS OF WESTERLY WINDS COULD ALLOW AREAS OF SMOKE
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO ADD
SMOKE TO THE GRIDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...REINFORCED BY
THE LOW SPREAD IN GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST A BIT LATER
INTO THE AREA THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PASSING THROUGH NO LATER
THAN 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND W. PORTIONS. IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LOW POPS
LIMITED TO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND EURO MAINTAIN SW FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT LIMITED INSTABILITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS NEAR
BEARTOOTHS AND FOOTHILLS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT..WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OUT IN EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST STATIONS...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES...INCLUDING KSHR...AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR
NORTH KMLS AND BAKER OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PLAINS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/090 060/089 062/095 063/083 057/083 053/082 053/082
    23/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 057/085 053/084 056/089 054/080 050/080 045/079 047/080
    14/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    11/B
HDN 064/093 058/091 060/097 062/088 056/085 052/084 052/085
    23/T    31/B    01/B    12/T    22/T    11/U    10/B
MLS 066/092 062/092 064/098 065/088 060/086 055/085 054/084
    12/T    21/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 065/087 058/091 061/097 062/087 058/086 055/084 055/085
    33/T    21/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
BHK 062/086 058/092 061/095 062/088 057/086 054/083 053/085
    23/T    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/U
SHR 063/085 054/084 055/093 057/087 053/085 050/083 049/083
    32/T    31/B    10/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270239
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
839 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS THIS EVENING. WHAT LITTLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DECREASED. HOWEVER, ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SPREAD BACK INTO
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY, SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS, AS EARLIER STORMS HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK.
COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD, SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
06Z, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
KBZN TERMINAL AREA. HOWEVER, BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THERE DUE TO PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE AGAIN AFTER 16Z AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY SOUTH OF A KCTB-KHVR LINE. AGAIN,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A
PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE AIR
QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW TO OUR
WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND
REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC
SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 270239
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
839 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS THIS EVENING. WHAT LITTLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DECREASED. HOWEVER, ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SPREAD BACK INTO
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY, SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATED. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
ADDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS, AS EARLIER STORMS HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK.
COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD, SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
06Z, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
KBZN TERMINAL AREA. HOWEVER, BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THERE DUE TO PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE AGAIN AFTER 16Z AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY SOUTH OF A KCTB-KHVR LINE. AGAIN,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A
PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE AIR
QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW TO OUR
WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND
REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC
SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO
WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270013
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE
AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW
TO OUR WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER


FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS
GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP
WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD,
SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 06Z, BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE KBZN TERMINAL
AREA. HOWEVER, BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THERE DUE TO
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN AFTER 16Z
AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, WHICH
MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
SOUTH OF A KCTB-KHVR LINE. AGAIN, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT, BUT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL
ALSO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 270013
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE
AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW
TO OUR WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER


FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS
GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP
WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD,
SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 06Z, BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE KBZN TERMINAL
AREA. HOWEVER, BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THERE DUE TO
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN AFTER 16Z
AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, WHICH
MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
SOUTH OF A KCTB-KHVR LINE. AGAIN, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT, BUT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL
ALSO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 270013
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE
AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW
TO OUR WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER


FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS
GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP
WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.

WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD,
SPREADING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH 06Z, BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW THAT THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE KBZN TERMINAL
AREA. HOWEVER, BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THERE DUE TO
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN AFTER 16Z
AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, WHICH
MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
SOUTH OF A KCTB-KHVR LINE. AGAIN, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT, BUT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL
ALSO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.  COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 262142
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE
AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW
TO OUR WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER


FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS
GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP
WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SMOKE. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 262142
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
BROAD THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRECEDED BY A PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN WYOMING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY THE REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY AND REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 6 MILES IN MANY AREAS. THE
AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY THE MT DEQ REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE DEEP LOW
TO OUR WEST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THURSDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME
ENHANCED WITH DEEP MIXING OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES INDICATE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. NUTTER


FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT
WAVES EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT
SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO
MONTANA ON MONDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS
GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP
WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SMOKE. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MODERATE TO POOR MIDSLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE. HENCE EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA DISTRICTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  91  59  89 /   0  20  10  10
CTB  52  88  53  86 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  55  90  53  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  54  86  49  87 /  10  40  20  10
WEY  40  76  38  79 /  20  50  30  10
DLN  52  84  48  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  55  92  56  89 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  59  87  57  87 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262121
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM MOSTLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROADUS TO BILLINGS
TO LIVINGSTON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ASSOCIATED  WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER US. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER
AND HELPED KEEP SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FROM BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY FRIENDLY FOR
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MORE MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO HAVE NOT LOWERED POPS AS MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LATE
THIS EVENING...AFTER 6PM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER
NIGHT AS THE ENERGY ALOFT ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND HELP LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME BETTER LAPSE
RATES AND COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE IN GIVING MOST OF THE
AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE COMPARED TO WEDNESDAYS VALUES PROVIDING US WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD PROBABILITIES OF
SURFACE CAPES IN THE VICINITY OF 1000 J/KG FOR MOST LOCATIONS SO
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW COULD BE STRONG. HOWEVER...SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK AND ONLY AROUND 10 OR 15 KNOTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST AS THE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES EAST.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAYS
COLD FRONT...AND THE ABSENCE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND CUT OFF THE CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL
WEEKEND. SOME PERIODS OF WESTERLY WINDS COULD ALLOW AREAS OF SMOKE
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO ADD
SMOKE TO THE GRIDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...REINFORCED BY
THE LOW SPREAD IN GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST A BIT
LATER INTO THE AREA THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PASSING THROUGH NO
LATER THAN 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND WEST PORTIONS. IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...WITH
ONLY LOW POPS LIMITED TO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...THE GFS AND EURO MAINTAIN SW FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT LIMITED INSTABILITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS NEAR
BEARTOOTHS AND FOOTHILLS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT..WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OUT IN EASTERN PORTIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MROWELL/SINGER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE MOST TERMINALS BUT THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO THE
EVENING... WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY 02Z
TONIGHT...INCLUDING AROUND KSHR. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
KMLS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF
INCREASED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT NEAR KSHR WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY
LATE MORNING. MROWELL/SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/090 060/089 062/095 063/083 057/083 053/082 053/082
    23/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 056/085 053/084 056/089 054/080 050/080 045/079 047/080
    34/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    11/B
HDN 063/093 058/091 060/097 062/088 056/085 052/084 052/085
    23/T    31/B    01/B    12/T    22/T    11/U    10/B
MLS 066/092 062/092 064/098 065/088 060/086 055/085 054/084
    12/T    21/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/087 058/091 061/097 062/087 058/086 055/084 055/085
    33/T    21/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
BHK 061/086 058/092 061/095 062/088 057/086 054/083 053/085
    22/T    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/U
SHR 059/085 054/084 055/093 057/087 053/085 050/083 049/083
    33/T    31/B    10/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KMSO 262100
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
300 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Today will be another warm, smoky day across most
of western Montana and north central Idaho with a ridge of high
pressure firmly in place. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees
above normal, but valleys with thick smoke, such as the Selway,
Lochsa, and Salmon river drainages, will be cooler due to
decreased sunlight through the smoke.

Overnight into Thursday, monsoonal moisture will swing through
portions of southwest Montana and north central Idaho. With the
increased moisture, chances for thunderstorms are again in the
forecast. These showers will be mostly dry initially, making gusty
winds and lightning the primary threats. Moisture continues to
increase on Thursday, and by Thursday afternoon, storms over Lehmi
county and southwest Montana may additionally bring local light
precipitation. These could extend as far north and west as the
Sapphire range, but recent model trends have drifted further
southeast with storms, so confidence in thunderstorms for other
locations is low.

Friday will bring near normal temperatures as the ridge axis begins
to drift to the east. By Saturday afternoon winds are expected to
increase as a shortwave trough moving through the upper level flow
provides some enhanced mixing. Precipitation looks limited at this
time, but far northwest Montana stands the best chance of a
wetting rain. Overall, these changes may help temporarily thin
smoke in many valleys, although valleys adjacent to large fires
will likely not improve significantly.

For Sunday through early next week, there are quite a few
differences regarding timing of individual weather systems between
models. HOWEVER, models are consistent either showing a cooler and
somewhat more moist westerly flow or a more persistent trough of
low pressure over the Northwest U.S. and northern Rockies. As
such, we have increased the probability of precipitation,
especially across northwest Montana. Temperatures should cool to
around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. However, exactly how
cool/warm/smoky each day will be is still in question.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to limit visibilities in valleys
this afternoon. Air above the terrain will also become more smoky
as valley smoke is mixed aloft, which may obscure the terrain.
Valley winds will be very light this afternoon with high pressure
dominating. Some thunderstorms are possible in mountains around
KSMN and KBTM in the late evening and overnight, but these are not
expected to impact terminals. Breezy south winds are also possible
overnight for KBTM and KSMN as the pressure gradient tightens.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KGGW 262023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN THE
RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRAY
SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT KGDV LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94.
BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE SW ZONES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE STORMS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 262023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN THE
RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRAY
SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT KGDV LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94.
BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE SW ZONES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE STORMS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 262023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN THE
RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRAY
SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT KGDV LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94.
BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE SW ZONES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE STORMS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 262023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN THE
RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRAY
SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT KGDV LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94.
BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS...MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE SW ZONES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE STORMS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 262023 CCA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN THE
RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRAY
SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT KGDV LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94.
BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 262023 CCA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONTROL OVER MONTANA/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT LATE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THEN THE
RIDGE WILL REBOUND A BIT FRIDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.

SMOKE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 3-5 MILES. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BETTER WITH 10SM AT SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE. GOING FORECAST
HAS MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT. WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND LEAVE THE MENTION AND ALSO KEEP THE SMOKE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
MESSAGE ON THE HWO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A SHOWER TONIGHT AND CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
FROM A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR CWA TO A MORE
PREDOMINANT AND MUCH LONGER LASTING SW FLOW AS A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND THE
WESTERN U S STATES.

THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH STILL TO BE
WORKED OUT. AT THIS TIME...BE BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING A WARM AND DRY CONTINUED PATTERN IN
SPITE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WIND SHIFT
AND COOL FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A 15
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO IMPACT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF KGGW DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM PACNW WILDFIRES. FEW-SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRAY
SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT KGDV LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-94.
BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING RADAR RETURNS IN THE
NORTHEAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES ONTRACK. EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SMOKE. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 261745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING RADAR RETURNS IN THE
NORTHEAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES ONTRACK. EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SMOKE. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING RADAR RETURNS IN THE
NORTHEAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES ONTRACK. EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SMOKE. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 261745
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING RADAR RETURNS IN THE
NORTHEAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES ONTRACK. EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO SMOKE. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING RADAR RETURNS IN THE
NORTHEAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES ONTRACK. EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 21Z BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. AREAS
OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN SMOKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING RADAR RETURNS IN THE
NORTHEAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES ONTRACK. EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 21Z BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. AREAS
OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN SMOKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 261504
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. DID TRIM POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO
WHERE THEY/RE SEEN ON RADAR. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS AIR MASS DRIES OUT. SMOKE SHOULD CLEAR A BIT AS
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS PUSH IT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP HOT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
VISIBILITY IS 5 MILES AT GGW AND OLF AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE 6 MILE VISIBILITY... WILL MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR THE
SMOKE SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT MENTION IT BEYOND TONIGHT FOR NOW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HAVRE AND
SOUTH OF JORDAN AT 09Z...A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... IT
WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR KGGW AND KOLF...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING. AS EASTERLY WINDS SET UP TODAY...EXPECT THAT SMOKE TO
GRADUALLY EASE FROM EAST TO WEST...IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK OUT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A STRAY SPRINKLES OR TWO EARLY.
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 261504
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. DID TRIM POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO
WHERE THEY/RE SEEN ON RADAR. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS AIR MASS DRIES OUT. SMOKE SHOULD CLEAR A BIT AS
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS PUSH IT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP HOT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
VISIBILITY IS 5 MILES AT GGW AND OLF AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE 6 MILE VISIBILITY... WILL MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR THE
SMOKE SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT MENTION IT BEYOND TONIGHT FOR NOW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HAVRE AND
SOUTH OF JORDAN AT 09Z...A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... IT
WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR KGGW AND KOLF...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING. AS EASTERLY WINDS SET UP TODAY...EXPECT THAT SMOKE TO
GRADUALLY EASE FROM EAST TO WEST...IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK OUT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A STRAY SPRINKLES OR TWO EARLY.
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261450
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE. MOVED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH, AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE IN OUR SOUTHWEST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING IN AREA WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS...BUT 700MB TEMPS OF 12-15C IN
THIS AREA WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH RESULTING IN
GENERAL HIGH BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BRING A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A
WEAK WEST TO EAST RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH THESE STORMS BUT MORE LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING MEASURABLE.

SMOKE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS NOTICEABLE TODAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST WITH
THURSDAYS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE
REGION. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES HAD LOW SPREAD UNTIL MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WERE TRENDING TOWARD BETTER PATTERN AGREEMENT. MADE JUST
A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. CONTINUED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AND KEPT THE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED E INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. THE AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL SUN MORNING WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND W. NOTED THE GFS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON...THE GFS MAINTAINS SW FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE FLOW AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE E ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MT BORDER. WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH SUN EVENING DUE
TO THIS DIFFERENCE. BOTH MODELS HAD A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
ON MON BUT THE TROUGH WAS MUCH STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
AGAIN WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH MON EVENING. A FLATTER DRIER
FLOW WAS IN STORE FOR TUE. SW FLOW RETURNED FOR WED BUT THE
AIRMASS LOOKED DRY...SO JUST HAD MOUNTAIN POPS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SE MT AFTER
21Z TODAY... WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY 00Z
TOMORROW...INCLUDING AROUND KSHR. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE
THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF KMLS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT NEAR KSHR WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MROWELL/SINGER
&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 063/089 060/089 062/094 059/083 057/083 053/081
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 091 056/088 052/087 055/090 050/080 050/080 045/078
    2/T 23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 096 061/093 057/091 059/097 057/087 057/086 052/084
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 097 065/094 061/093 062/098 061/088 060/087 055/085
    1/B 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 094 061/088 058/091 059/097 058/087 058/087 055/084
    1/B 33/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 093 060/089 057/091 059/096 058/088 057/087 054/082
    1/B 23/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 094 056/088 052/089 053/094 053/086 053/086 050/083
    2/T 22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261450
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE. MOVED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH, AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE IN OUR SOUTHWEST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING IN AREA WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS...BUT 700MB TEMPS OF 12-15C IN
THIS AREA WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH RESULTING IN
GENERAL HIGH BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BRING A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A
WEAK WEST TO EAST RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH THESE STORMS BUT MORE LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING MEASURABLE.

SMOKE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS NOTICEABLE TODAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST WITH
THURSDAYS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE
REGION. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES HAD LOW SPREAD UNTIL MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WERE TRENDING TOWARD BETTER PATTERN AGREEMENT. MADE JUST
A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. CONTINUED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AND KEPT THE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED E INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. THE AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL SUN MORNING WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND W. NOTED THE GFS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON...THE GFS MAINTAINS SW FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE FLOW AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE E ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MT BORDER. WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH SUN EVENING DUE
TO THIS DIFFERENCE. BOTH MODELS HAD A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
ON MON BUT THE TROUGH WAS MUCH STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
AGAIN WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH MON EVENING. A FLATTER DRIER
FLOW WAS IN STORE FOR TUE. SW FLOW RETURNED FOR WED BUT THE
AIRMASS LOOKED DRY...SO JUST HAD MOUNTAIN POPS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SE MT AFTER
21Z TODAY... WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY 00Z
TOMORROW...INCLUDING AROUND KSHR. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE
THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF KMLS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT NEAR KSHR WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MROWELL/SINGER
&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 063/089 060/089 062/094 059/083 057/083 053/081
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 091 056/088 052/087 055/090 050/080 050/080 045/078
    2/T 23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 096 061/093 057/091 059/097 057/087 057/086 052/084
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 097 065/094 061/093 062/098 061/088 060/087 055/085
    1/B 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 094 061/088 058/091 059/097 058/087 058/087 055/084
    1/B 33/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 093 060/089 057/091 059/096 058/088 057/087 054/082
    1/B 23/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 094 056/088 052/089 053/094 053/086 053/086 050/083
    2/T 22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261450
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE. MOVED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH, AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE IN OUR SOUTHWEST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING IN AREA WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS...BUT 700MB TEMPS OF 12-15C IN
THIS AREA WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH RESULTING IN
GENERAL HIGH BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BRING A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A
WEAK WEST TO EAST RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH THESE STORMS BUT MORE LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING MEASURABLE.

SMOKE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS NOTICEABLE TODAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST WITH
THURSDAYS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE
REGION. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES HAD LOW SPREAD UNTIL MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WERE TRENDING TOWARD BETTER PATTERN AGREEMENT. MADE JUST
A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. CONTINUED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AND KEPT THE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED E INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. THE AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL SUN MORNING WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND W. NOTED THE GFS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON...THE GFS MAINTAINS SW FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE FLOW AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE E ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MT BORDER. WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH SUN EVENING DUE
TO THIS DIFFERENCE. BOTH MODELS HAD A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
ON MON BUT THE TROUGH WAS MUCH STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
AGAIN WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH MON EVENING. A FLATTER DRIER
FLOW WAS IN STORE FOR TUE. SW FLOW RETURNED FOR WED BUT THE
AIRMASS LOOKED DRY...SO JUST HAD MOUNTAIN POPS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SE MT AFTER
21Z TODAY... WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY 00Z
TOMORROW...INCLUDING AROUND KSHR. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE
THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF KMLS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT NEAR KSHR WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MROWELL/SINGER
&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 063/089 060/089 062/094 059/083 057/083 053/081
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 091 056/088 052/087 055/090 050/080 050/080 045/078
    2/T 23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 096 061/093 057/091 059/097 057/087 057/086 052/084
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 097 065/094 061/093 062/098 061/088 060/087 055/085
    1/B 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 094 061/088 058/091 059/097 058/087 058/087 055/084
    1/B 33/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 093 060/089 057/091 059/096 058/088 057/087 054/082
    1/B 23/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 094 056/088 052/089 053/094 053/086 053/086 050/083
    2/T 22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261450
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
RIDGE. MOVED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH, AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE IN OUR SOUTHWEST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. DOBBS/SINGER

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING IN AREA WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS...BUT 700MB TEMPS OF 12-15C IN
THIS AREA WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH RESULTING IN
GENERAL HIGH BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BRING A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A
WEAK WEST TO EAST RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH THESE STORMS BUT MORE LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING MEASURABLE.

SMOKE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS NOTICEABLE TODAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST WITH
THURSDAYS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE
REGION. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES HAD LOW SPREAD UNTIL MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WERE TRENDING TOWARD BETTER PATTERN AGREEMENT. MADE JUST
A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. CONTINUED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AND KEPT THE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED E INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. THE AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL SUN MORNING WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND W. NOTED THE GFS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON...THE GFS MAINTAINS SW FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE FLOW AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE E ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MT BORDER. WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH SUN EVENING DUE
TO THIS DIFFERENCE. BOTH MODELS HAD A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
ON MON BUT THE TROUGH WAS MUCH STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
AGAIN WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH MON EVENING. A FLATTER DRIER
FLOW WAS IN STORE FOR TUE. SW FLOW RETURNED FOR WED BUT THE
AIRMASS LOOKED DRY...SO JUST HAD MOUNTAIN POPS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SE MT AFTER
21Z TODAY... WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY 00Z
TOMORROW...INCLUDING AROUND KSHR. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE
THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF KMLS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT NEAR KSHR WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MROWELL/SINGER
&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 063/089 060/089 062/094 059/083 057/083 053/081
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 091 056/088 052/087 055/090 050/080 050/080 045/078
    2/T 23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 096 061/093 057/091 059/097 057/087 057/086 052/084
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 097 065/094 061/093 062/098 061/088 060/087 055/085
    1/B 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 094 061/088 058/091 059/097 058/087 058/087 055/084
    1/B 33/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 093 060/089 057/091 059/096 058/088 057/087 054/082
    1/B 23/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 094 056/088 052/089 053/094 053/086 053/086 050/083
    2/T 22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261129
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 21Z BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. AREAS
OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN SMOKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261129
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 21Z BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. AREAS
OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN SMOKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 261129
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 21Z BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. AREAS
OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN SMOKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261129
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 21Z BUT
PROBABILITY APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. AREAS
OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AREAS MVFR IN SMOKE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MPJ

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 260946
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER
SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SOME LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW COULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS AT SOME TAF SITES. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IN A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION.
SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 260946
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
346 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND PRECIPITATION FROM ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE LIMITED. ADDITION MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AGAIN
MOISTURE PRODUCED FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
SOME DRY LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN AS THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP IS CUT OFF AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REPORT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3 AND 6
MILES. MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR THE AREA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SUK


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER
SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SOME LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW COULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS AT SOME TAF SITES. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IN A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION.
SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MONTANA WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR HEAT WAVES EXPECTED
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE THAT SHOWS UP BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THE GFS EJECTS ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND THEN MOVES IT INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA AND REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WPC SOLUTIONS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT
KEEPS ISOLATED POPS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  60  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  87  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  55  90  53 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  89  54  86  50 /  10  10  30  20
WEY  78  40  76  38 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  88  51  84  48 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  91  55  91  56 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  88  60  87  56 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 260924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
324 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Smoke throughout the region is likely to remain at
least through Friday. This smoke not only creates poor air quality
but also makes for difficult high temperature forecasts. In
general the smoke has been keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
below their potential, though still warm for this time of year
due to the strong ridge of high pressure. Latest satellite trends
show monsoon moisture moving through the desert southwest which
will begin to affect the region today. There is a lot of question
on how far north the moisture and resultant showers will be, but
best confidence is for showers and thunderstorms through Lemhi
County, ID and southwest Montana this afternoon. Storms this
afternoon and evening do not look to be very beneficial with rain
potential to be low but lightning strikes are possible.
Disturbances will pass on Thursday and Friday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will also trend
cooler by the end of the week.

This weekend could potentially be the start of a pattern change,
that could be a welcome change, in terms of smoke dispersion and
cooler temperatures. Precipitation forecast is still a little
tricky, due to timing differences in models and the potential of
a lot of it getting pushed north into Canada before arriving to
western Montana and central Idaho. One aspect of this change that
seems most certain, is the increase in winds out of the southwest.
Winds will begin to really increase Saturday afternoon and evening
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the first front. After
this weekend long range models continue to indicate a
southwesterly flow hanging around will a series of disturbances
moving through during the week next week. Stay tuned to the
forecast as the weekend nears.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to keep lowered visibility throughout
western Montana and central Idaho valleys today. The smoke will
also obscure the terrain. Increasing winds aloft, could help thin
out the smoke in the late afternoon. High based thunderstorms are
possible in Lemhi County, ID and into southwest Montana as
monsoon moisture approaches the region. Any storms that develop
will likely only produce gusty winds and lightning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 260924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
324 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Smoke throughout the region is likely to remain at
least through Friday. This smoke not only creates poor air quality
but also makes for difficult high temperature forecasts. In
general the smoke has been keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
below their potential, though still warm for this time of year
due to the strong ridge of high pressure. Latest satellite trends
show monsoon moisture moving through the desert southwest which
will begin to affect the region today. There is a lot of question
on how far north the moisture and resultant showers will be, but
best confidence is for showers and thunderstorms through Lemhi
County, ID and southwest Montana this afternoon. Storms this
afternoon and evening do not look to be very beneficial with rain
potential to be low but lightning strikes are possible.
Disturbances will pass on Thursday and Friday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will also trend
cooler by the end of the week.

This weekend could potentially be the start of a pattern change,
that could be a welcome change, in terms of smoke dispersion and
cooler temperatures. Precipitation forecast is still a little
tricky, due to timing differences in models and the potential of
a lot of it getting pushed north into Canada before arriving to
western Montana and central Idaho. One aspect of this change that
seems most certain, is the increase in winds out of the southwest.
Winds will begin to really increase Saturday afternoon and evening
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the first front. After
this weekend long range models continue to indicate a
southwesterly flow hanging around will a series of disturbances
moving through during the week next week. Stay tuned to the
forecast as the weekend nears.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to keep lowered visibility throughout
western Montana and central Idaho valleys today. The smoke will
also obscure the terrain. Increasing winds aloft, could help thin
out the smoke in the late afternoon. High based thunderstorms are
possible in Lemhi County, ID and into southwest Montana as
monsoon moisture approaches the region. Any storms that develop
will likely only produce gusty winds and lightning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 260924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
324 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Smoke throughout the region is likely to remain at
least through Friday. This smoke not only creates poor air quality
but also makes for difficult high temperature forecasts. In
general the smoke has been keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
below their potential, though still warm for this time of year
due to the strong ridge of high pressure. Latest satellite trends
show monsoon moisture moving through the desert southwest which
will begin to affect the region today. There is a lot of question
on how far north the moisture and resultant showers will be, but
best confidence is for showers and thunderstorms through Lemhi
County, ID and southwest Montana this afternoon. Storms this
afternoon and evening do not look to be very beneficial with rain
potential to be low but lightning strikes are possible.
Disturbances will pass on Thursday and Friday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will also trend
cooler by the end of the week.

This weekend could potentially be the start of a pattern change,
that could be a welcome change, in terms of smoke dispersion and
cooler temperatures. Precipitation forecast is still a little
tricky, due to timing differences in models and the potential of
a lot of it getting pushed north into Canada before arriving to
western Montana and central Idaho. One aspect of this change that
seems most certain, is the increase in winds out of the southwest.
Winds will begin to really increase Saturday afternoon and evening
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the first front. After
this weekend long range models continue to indicate a
southwesterly flow hanging around will a series of disturbances
moving through during the week next week. Stay tuned to the
forecast as the weekend nears.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to keep lowered visibility throughout
western Montana and central Idaho valleys today. The smoke will
also obscure the terrain. Increasing winds aloft, could help thin
out the smoke in the late afternoon. High based thunderstorms are
possible in Lemhi County, ID and into southwest Montana as
monsoon moisture approaches the region. Any storms that develop
will likely only produce gusty winds and lightning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 260924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
324 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Smoke throughout the region is likely to remain at
least through Friday. This smoke not only creates poor air quality
but also makes for difficult high temperature forecasts. In
general the smoke has been keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
below their potential, though still warm for this time of year
due to the strong ridge of high pressure. Latest satellite trends
show monsoon moisture moving through the desert southwest which
will begin to affect the region today. There is a lot of question
on how far north the moisture and resultant showers will be, but
best confidence is for showers and thunderstorms through Lemhi
County, ID and southwest Montana this afternoon. Storms this
afternoon and evening do not look to be very beneficial with rain
potential to be low but lightning strikes are possible.
Disturbances will pass on Thursday and Friday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will also trend
cooler by the end of the week.

This weekend could potentially be the start of a pattern change,
that could be a welcome change, in terms of smoke dispersion and
cooler temperatures. Precipitation forecast is still a little
tricky, due to timing differences in models and the potential of
a lot of it getting pushed north into Canada before arriving to
western Montana and central Idaho. One aspect of this change that
seems most certain, is the increase in winds out of the southwest.
Winds will begin to really increase Saturday afternoon and evening
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the first front. After
this weekend long range models continue to indicate a
southwesterly flow hanging around will a series of disturbances
moving through during the week next week. Stay tuned to the
forecast as the weekend nears.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to keep lowered visibility throughout
western Montana and central Idaho valleys today. The smoke will
also obscure the terrain. Increasing winds aloft, could help thin
out the smoke in the late afternoon. High based thunderstorms are
possible in Lemhi County, ID and into southwest Montana as
monsoon moisture approaches the region. Any storms that develop
will likely only produce gusty winds and lightning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260917
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
317 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING IN AREA WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS...BUT 700MB TEMPS OF 12-15C IN
THIS AREA WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH RESULTING IN
GENERAL HIGH BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BRING A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A
WEAK WEST TO EAST RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH THESE STORMS BUT MORE LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING MEASURABLE.

SMOKE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS NOTICEABLE TODAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST WITH
THURSDAYS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE
REGION. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES HAD LOW SPREAD UNTIL MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WERE TRENDING TOWARD BETTER PATTERN AGREEMENT. MADE JUST
A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. CONTINUED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AND KEPT THE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED E INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. THE AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL SUN MORNING WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND W. NOTED THE GFS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON...THE GFS MAINTAINS SW FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE FLOW AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE E ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MT BORDER. WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH SUN EVENING DUE
TO THIS DIFFERENCE. BOTH MODELS HAD A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
ON MON BUT THE TROUGH WAS MUCH STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
AGAIN WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH MON EVENING. A FLATTER DRIER
FLOW WAS IN STORE FOR TUE. SW FLOW RETURNED FOR WED BUT THE
AIRMASS LOOKED DRY...SO JUST HAD MOUNTAIN POPS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF A
LINE FROM AROUND KLVM TO LODGE GRASS TO FAR SE MT AFTER 18Z
TODAY...INCLUDING AROUND KSHR. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE
THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE KBIL. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO S OF HARDIN...E AND S OF KMLS AND OVER AND NEAR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 063/089 060/089 062/094 059/083 057/083 053/081
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 091 056/088 052/087 055/090 050/080 050/080 045/078
    2/T 23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 096 061/093 057/091 059/097 057/087 057/086 052/084
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 097 065/094 061/093 062/098 061/088 060/087 055/085
    1/B 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 094 061/088 058/091 059/097 058/087 058/087 055/084
    1/B 33/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 093 060/089 057/091 059/096 058/088 057/087 054/082
    1/B 23/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 094 056/088 052/089 053/094 053/086 053/086 050/083
    2/T 22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260917
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
317 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES AGAIN. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE FETCH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING IN AREA WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS...BUT 700MB TEMPS OF 12-15C IN
THIS AREA WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH RESULTING IN
GENERAL HIGH BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BRING A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A
WEAK WEST TO EAST RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 3/4 OF AN INCH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH THESE STORMS BUT MORE LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING MEASURABLE.

SMOKE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS NOTICEABLE TODAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST WITH
THURSDAYS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE
REGION. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES HAD LOW SPREAD UNTIL MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WERE TRENDING TOWARD BETTER PATTERN AGREEMENT. MADE JUST
A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION ON SAT AS UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. CONTINUED THE LOW MOUNTAIN POPS THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AND KEPT THE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED E INTO THE AREA.
IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT WINDS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. THE AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL SUN MORNING WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND W. NOTED THE GFS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUN AFTERNOON...THE GFS MAINTAINS SW FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHILE
THE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE FLOW AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE E ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MT BORDER. WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH SUN EVENING DUE
TO THIS DIFFERENCE. BOTH MODELS HAD A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
ON MON BUT THE TROUGH WAS MUCH STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
AGAIN WENT WITH CLIMO POPS THROUGH MON EVENING. A FLATTER DRIER
FLOW WAS IN STORE FOR TUE. SW FLOW RETURNED FOR WED BUT THE
AIRMASS LOOKED DRY...SO JUST HAD MOUNTAIN POPS.

SAT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF A
LINE FROM AROUND KLVM TO LODGE GRASS TO FAR SE MT AFTER 18Z
TODAY...INCLUDING AROUND KSHR. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE
THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE KBIL. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO S OF HARDIN...E AND S OF KMLS AND OVER AND NEAR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 063/089 060/089 062/094 059/083 057/083 053/081
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 091 056/088 052/087 055/090 050/080 050/080 045/078
    2/T 23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 096 061/093 057/091 059/097 057/087 057/086 052/084
    1/B 22/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 097 065/094 061/093 062/098 061/088 060/087 055/085
    1/B 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 094 061/088 058/091 059/097 058/087 058/087 055/084
    1/B 33/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 093 060/089 057/091 059/096 058/088 057/087 054/082
    1/B 23/T    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 094 056/088 052/089 053/094 053/086 053/086 050/083
    2/T 22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 260908
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
308 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP HOT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
VISIBILITY IS 5 MILES AT GGW AND OLF AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE 6 MILE VISIBILITY... WILL MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR THE
SMOKE SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT MENTION IT BEYOND TONIGHT FOR NOW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HAVRE AND
SOUTH OF JORDAN AT 09Z...A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... IT
WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  FORRESTER



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL OCCASIONALLY DELIVER MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT... VERY DRY AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
90S FOR HIGHS AND MINIMUM RH IN THE TEENS IN THE TEENS IN MANY
AREAS. RH RECOVERY OVER RIDGES WILL BE POOR AT NIGHT WITH MAX RH
FAILING TO REACH 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MISSOURI BREAKS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 260908
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
308 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP HOT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
VISIBILITY IS 5 MILES AT GGW AND OLF AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE 6 MILE VISIBILITY... WILL MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR THE
SMOKE SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT MENTION IT BEYOND TONIGHT FOR NOW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HAVRE AND
SOUTH OF JORDAN AT 09Z...A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... IT
WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  FORRESTER



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL OCCASIONALLY DELIVER MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT... VERY DRY AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
90S FOR HIGHS AND MINIMUM RH IN THE TEENS IN THE TEENS IN MANY
AREAS. RH RECOVERY OVER RIDGES WILL BE POOR AT NIGHT WITH MAX RH
FAILING TO REACH 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MISSOURI BREAKS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 260908
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
308 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP HOT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
VISIBILITY IS 5 MILES AT GGW AND OLF AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE 6 MILE VISIBILITY... WILL MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR THE
SMOKE SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT MENTION IT BEYOND TONIGHT FOR NOW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HAVRE AND
SOUTH OF JORDAN AT 09Z...A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... IT
WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  FORRESTER



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL OCCASIONALLY DELIVER MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT... VERY DRY AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
90S FOR HIGHS AND MINIMUM RH IN THE TEENS IN THE TEENS IN MANY
AREAS. RH RECOVERY OVER RIDGES WILL BE POOR AT NIGHT WITH MAX RH
FAILING TO REACH 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MISSOURI BREAKS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 260908
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
308 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP HOT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
VISIBILITY IS 5 MILES AT GGW AND OLF AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE 6 MILE VISIBILITY... WILL MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR THE
SMOKE SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT MENTION IT BEYOND TONIGHT FOR NOW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HAVRE AND
SOUTH OF JORDAN AT 09Z...A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... IT
WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  FORRESTER



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL OCCASIONALLY DELIVER MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT... VERY DRY AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
90S FOR HIGHS AND MINIMUM RH IN THE TEENS IN THE TEENS IN MANY
AREAS. RH RECOVERY OVER RIDGES WILL BE POOR AT NIGHT WITH MAX RH
FAILING TO REACH 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MISSOURI BREAKS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 260908
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
308 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP HOT SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
VISIBILITY IS 5 MILES AT GGW AND OLF AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO THE
WEST HAVE 6 MILE VISIBILITY... WILL MENTION AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR THE
SMOKE SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT MENTION IT BEYOND TONIGHT FOR NOW.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HAVRE AND
SOUTH OF JORDAN AT 09Z...A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... IT
WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  FORRESTER



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING +30C OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MONTANA. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY HELP PROVIDE ISOLATED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT APPEARS LIMITED AND TIMING DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LESS OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE. WITH THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND LOWER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND TO
START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL OCCASIONALLY DELIVER MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT... VERY DRY AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
90S FOR HIGHS AND MINIMUM RH IN THE TEENS IN THE TEENS IN MANY
AREAS. RH RECOVERY OVER RIDGES WILL BE POOR AT NIGHT WITH MAX RH
FAILING TO REACH 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MISSOURI BREAKS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KTFX 260816
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER
SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SOME LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW COULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS AT SOME TAF SITES. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IN A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO WARANT MENTION. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 260816
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER
SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SOME LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW COULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS AT SOME TAF SITES. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IN A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO WARANT MENTION. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 260816
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER
SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SOME LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW COULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS AT SOME TAF SITES. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IN A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO WARANT MENTION. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 260816
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THICKER
SMOKE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SOME LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW COULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS AT SOME TAF SITES. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IN A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO WARANT MENTION. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 260256
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
856 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT SMOKEY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SMOKE AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. RR
AIR QUALITY MODEL INDICATES SOME SMOKE MOVING BACK INTO THE KBZN
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KHVR AND KLWT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 260256
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
856 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT SMOKEY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SMOKE AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. RR
AIR QUALITY MODEL INDICATES SOME SMOKE MOVING BACK INTO THE KBZN
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KHVR AND KLWT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 260256
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
856 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT SMOKEY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SMOKE AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. RR
AIR QUALITY MODEL INDICATES SOME SMOKE MOVING BACK INTO THE KBZN
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KHVR AND KLWT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 260256
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
856 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING DROPPED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. SMALL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT
ON THE UPDATE TO REFLECT LIGHTER...AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT SMOKEY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SMOKE AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. RR
AIR QUALITY MODEL INDICATES SOME SMOKE MOVING BACK INTO THE KBZN
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KHVR AND KLWT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 6 MILES AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS. THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ANY SUCH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LITTLE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
NUTTER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SATURDAY A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN FAVORING A FASTER TIMING THAN THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
RUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN IS
MOSTLY DRY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL RUNS
WITH REGARD TO FORECASTING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS DIFFER WITH UPPER AIR
PATTERNS..WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  51  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  92  55  89 /   0  10  10  20
BZN  52  90  54  86 /  10  20  10  30
WEY  41  79  41  77 /  10  30  30  40
DLN  51  89  52  84 /   0  10  10  30
HVR  54  93  55  91 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  59  90  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260251
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
BUBBLE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALLOWING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA...ALONG WITH
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING
WESTERN MONTANA. THE MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE WEAK AND FORCING UNDER
THE RIDGE SUPPRESSIVE SO NOTHING VERY STRONG PER REFLECTIVITY
LEVELS...BUT WE DID NOTE SOME DECENT LIGHTNING NEAR SPRINGDALE
AND BIG TIMBER AROUND 700 PM...AND THIS STORM NOW APPROACHING
BILLINGS. ADJUSTED POPS AS NECESSARY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A FEW
PROGGS LINGER THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR CENTRAL ZONES. A FEW
SHOWERS ALSO LINGERING OUT TOWARD THE SE ZONES WHERE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IS TRYING TO POP THE CAP WITHOUT MUCH LUCK. BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SIDE NOTE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AIR QUALITY BY TOMORROW IN BILLINGS AREA THANKS TO WINDS
BACKING O THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT SMOKE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME VIRGA TO LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE WAS ROUNDING THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW...SO MOST OF
THE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN AS VIRGA OR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM.

A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS WYOMING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE THOUGH A BIT OF EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHICH INCREASES MOISTURE SOME. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE
SOME AND THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TOO. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS WE TRANSITION
FROM LONGWAVE RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BRITISH
COLOMBIAN LOW SLOWLY EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AFTER SUNDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS A DEMISE OF A STRONG RIDGE AND A RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER SATURDAY.

THE LAST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE
RIDGE EARLY FRIDAY GIVING MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INVOLVES FIRE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO
WILL INDUCE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THIS UPDATE
I UPPED THE WINDS SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO OUR NORMAL BLEND AS WE
SHOULD MIX FAIRLY WELL. CURRENTLY THINK WE COULD SEE 15-25MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
FRONTAL TIMING...AND WINDS...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS
BEFORE ADDING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATED A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING IMPROVED VIS BACK TO REGION
OVERNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL ROUTES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...BUT NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND STORMS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/094 064/088 060/089 061/094 061/084 058/085 053/082
    31/B    23/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 060/090 056/087 053/088 055/091 053/082 050/081 047/079
    11/B    23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/B
HDN 066/097 062/092 058/093 060/097 059/088 057/087 053/086
    21/B    13/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 065/097 064/093 061/094 062/099 064/089 060/087 055/087
    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
4BQ 063/096 062/088 058/092 059/098 061/088 059/087 055/086
    21/B    23/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 059/093 061/087 057/092 059/097 061/089 057/087 053/084
    00/B    33/T    11/B    11/U    22/T    21/B    11/U
SHR 061/092 057/087 053/089 054/096 055/088 053/087 050/084
    22/T    43/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260251
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
BUBBLE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALLOWING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA...ALONG WITH
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING
WESTERN MONTANA. THE MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE WEAK AND FORCING UNDER
THE RIDGE SUPPRESSIVE SO NOTHING VERY STRONG PER REFLECTIVITY
LEVELS...BUT WE DID NOTE SOME DECENT LIGHTNING NEAR SPRINGDALE
AND BIG TIMBER AROUND 700 PM...AND THIS STORM NOW APPROACHING
BILLINGS. ADJUSTED POPS AS NECESSARY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A FEW
PROGGS LINGER THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR CENTRAL ZONES. A FEW
SHOWERS ALSO LINGERING OUT TOWARD THE SE ZONES WHERE SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IS TRYING TO POP THE CAP WITHOUT MUCH LUCK. BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

SIDE NOTE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN
THE AIR QUALITY BY TOMORROW IN BILLINGS AREA THANKS TO WINDS
BACKING O THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT SMOKE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME VIRGA TO LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE WAS ROUNDING THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW...SO MOST OF
THE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN AS VIRGA OR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM.

A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS WYOMING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE THOUGH A BIT OF EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHICH INCREASES MOISTURE SOME. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE
SOME AND THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TOO. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS WE TRANSITION
FROM LONGWAVE RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BRITISH
COLOMBIAN LOW SLOWLY EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AFTER SUNDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS A DEMISE OF A STRONG RIDGE AND A RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER SATURDAY.

THE LAST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE
RIDGE EARLY FRIDAY GIVING MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INVOLVES FIRE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO
WILL INDUCE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THIS UPDATE
I UPPED THE WINDS SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO OUR NORMAL BLEND AS WE
SHOULD MIX FAIRLY WELL. CURRENTLY THINK WE COULD SEE 15-25MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
FRONTAL TIMING...AND WINDS...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS
BEFORE ADDING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATED A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING IMPROVED VIS BACK TO REGION
OVERNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL ROUTES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...BUT NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND STORMS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/094 064/088 060/089 061/094 061/084 058/085 053/082
    31/B    23/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 060/090 056/087 053/088 055/091 053/082 050/081 047/079
    11/B    23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/B
HDN 066/097 062/092 058/093 060/097 059/088 057/087 053/086
    21/B    13/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 065/097 064/093 061/094 062/099 064/089 060/087 055/087
    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
4BQ 063/096 062/088 058/092 059/098 061/088 059/087 055/086
    21/B    23/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 059/093 061/087 057/092 059/097 061/089 057/087 053/084
    00/B    33/T    11/B    11/U    22/T    21/B    11/U
SHR 061/092 057/087 053/089 054/096 055/088 053/087 050/084
    22/T    43/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 260219
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
819 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...INCREASED THE AREA OF SMOKE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO THE 3-6 MILES AREA FROM GLASGOW TO JORDAN
WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS TO FORCE A
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
FOR THE OTHER ELEMENTS.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST...SMOKE AND HAZE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAS RETURNED TO NE MONTANA. FOR
NOW...TRIED TO TREAT THIS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND AGAIN FROM THE
EAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THAT SMOKE BACK TO THE WEST. IF
A WIDESPREAD IMPACT OF 3 MILES VISIBILITY OR WORSE BLANKETS A
MODERATE TO LARGE AREA THIS EVENING...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE WITH A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. DO NOT YET KNOW IF THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE PROVIDING MORE CONDENSATION NUCLEI HAS BEEN
INCORPORTATED INTO THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE...FORECAST CHALLENGES ALSO INCLUDE THE
IMPACT OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THROUGH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATER THIS WEEK. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OF NO GREAT CONSEQUENCE. INSTABILITY
CO-LOCATED WITH PRECIP WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE LACKING FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA.

BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES FOR
SATURDAY WERE TWEAKED A BIT TOWARD MODEL GUIDANCE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS BORDER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS
HUMIDITIES WERE LOWERED AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK A BIT STRONGER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
UNDERCUTTING SHORT-WAVE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER MONTANA. HOT AIR SURGES INTO THE LOCAL
REGION AGAIN. OFF TO THE WEST A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
ROTATE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA
ATTEMPTING TO KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK IMPULSES AND REGIONAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN
ON SATURDAY A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN INITIATING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS THAT MARCH ACROSS THE MONTANA
PRAIRIE...REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR OF THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BEGINS ITS
STRUGGLE WITH THE WARM AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WILL
FLUCTUATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE CWA. WEAK IMPULSES AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING DIFFERENCES INCREASE. BUT
BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS PICK UP AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE THAT
FINALLY PUSHES THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST PLACING US IN COOLER
AIR BY MID-WEEK...PLUS OR MINUS A DAY.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SMOKE
ORIGINATING FROM FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MALIAWCO



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 260219
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
819 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...INCREASED THE AREA OF SMOKE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO THE 3-6 MILES AREA FROM GLASGOW TO JORDAN
WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS TO FORCE A
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
FOR THE OTHER ELEMENTS.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST...SMOKE AND HAZE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAS RETURNED TO NE MONTANA. FOR
NOW...TRIED TO TREAT THIS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND AGAIN FROM THE
EAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THAT SMOKE BACK TO THE WEST. IF
A WIDESPREAD IMPACT OF 3 MILES VISIBILITY OR WORSE BLANKETS A
MODERATE TO LARGE AREA THIS EVENING...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE WITH A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. DO NOT YET KNOW IF THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE PROVIDING MORE CONDENSATION NUCLEI HAS BEEN
INCORPORTATED INTO THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE...FORECAST CHALLENGES ALSO INCLUDE THE
IMPACT OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THROUGH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATER THIS WEEK. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OF NO GREAT CONSEQUENCE. INSTABILITY
CO-LOCATED WITH PRECIP WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE LACKING FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA.

BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES FOR
SATURDAY WERE TWEAKED A BIT TOWARD MODEL GUIDANCE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS BORDER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS
HUMIDITIES WERE LOWERED AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK A BIT STRONGER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
UNDERCUTTING SHORT-WAVE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER MONTANA. HOT AIR SURGES INTO THE LOCAL
REGION AGAIN. OFF TO THE WEST A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
ROTATE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA
ATTEMPTING TO KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK IMPULSES AND REGIONAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN
ON SATURDAY A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN INITIATING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS THAT MARCH ACROSS THE MONTANA
PRAIRIE...REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR OF THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BEGINS ITS
STRUGGLE WITH THE WARM AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WILL
FLUCTUATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE CWA. WEAK IMPULSES AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING DIFFERENCES INCREASE. BUT
BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS PICK UP AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE THAT
FINALLY PUSHES THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST PLACING US IN COOLER
AIR BY MID-WEEK...PLUS OR MINUS A DAY.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SMOKE
ORIGINATING FROM FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MALIAWCO



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 260219
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
819 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...INCREASED THE AREA OF SMOKE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO THE 3-6 MILES AREA FROM GLASGOW TO JORDAN
WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS TO FORCE A
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
FOR THE OTHER ELEMENTS.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST...SMOKE AND HAZE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAS RETURNED TO NE MONTANA. FOR
NOW...TRIED TO TREAT THIS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND AGAIN FROM THE
EAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THAT SMOKE BACK TO THE WEST. IF
A WIDESPREAD IMPACT OF 3 MILES VISIBILITY OR WORSE BLANKETS A
MODERATE TO LARGE AREA THIS EVENING...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE WITH A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. DO NOT YET KNOW IF THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE PROVIDING MORE CONDENSATION NUCLEI HAS BEEN
INCORPORTATED INTO THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE...FORECAST CHALLENGES ALSO INCLUDE THE
IMPACT OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THROUGH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATER THIS WEEK. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OF NO GREAT CONSEQUENCE. INSTABILITY
CO-LOCATED WITH PRECIP WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE LACKING FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA.

BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES FOR
SATURDAY WERE TWEAKED A BIT TOWARD MODEL GUIDANCE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS BORDER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS
HUMIDITIES WERE LOWERED AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK A BIT STRONGER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
UNDERCUTTING SHORT-WAVE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER MONTANA. HOT AIR SURGES INTO THE LOCAL
REGION AGAIN. OFF TO THE WEST A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
ROTATE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA
ATTEMPTING TO KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK IMPULSES AND REGIONAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN
ON SATURDAY A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN INITIATING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS THAT MARCH ACROSS THE MONTANA
PRAIRIE...REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR OF THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BEGINS ITS
STRUGGLE WITH THE WARM AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WILL
FLUCTUATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE CWA. WEAK IMPULSES AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING DIFFERENCES INCREASE. BUT
BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS PICK UP AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE THAT
FINALLY PUSHES THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST PLACING US IN COOLER
AIR BY MID-WEEK...PLUS OR MINUS A DAY.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SMOKE
ORIGINATING FROM FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MALIAWCO



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 260219
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
819 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...INCREASED THE AREA OF SMOKE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO THE 3-6 MILES AREA FROM GLASGOW TO JORDAN
WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS TO SEE IF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS TO FORCE A
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK
FOR THE OTHER ELEMENTS.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST...SMOKE AND HAZE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAS RETURNED TO NE MONTANA. FOR
NOW...TRIED TO TREAT THIS WITH AREAS OF SMOKE MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND AGAIN FROM THE
EAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THAT SMOKE BACK TO THE WEST. IF
A WIDESPREAD IMPACT OF 3 MILES VISIBILITY OR WORSE BLANKETS A
MODERATE TO LARGE AREA THIS EVENING...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
UPDATE WITH A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. DO NOT YET KNOW IF THE
ADDITION OF SMOKE PROVIDING MORE CONDENSATION NUCLEI HAS BEEN
INCORPORTATED INTO THE MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE...FORECAST CHALLENGES ALSO INCLUDE THE
IMPACT OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THROUGH THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATER THIS WEEK. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL
TRAVERSE NE MONTANA MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OF NO GREAT CONSEQUENCE. INSTABILITY
CO-LOCATED WITH PRECIP WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE LACKING FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA.

BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS AND HUMIDITIES FOR
SATURDAY WERE TWEAKED A BIT TOWARD MODEL GUIDANCE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS BORDER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS
HUMIDITIES WERE LOWERED AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK A BIT STRONGER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE
UNDERCUTTING SHORT-WAVE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER MONTANA. HOT AIR SURGES INTO THE LOCAL
REGION AGAIN. OFF TO THE WEST A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
ROTATE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA
ATTEMPTING TO KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK IMPULSES AND REGIONAL INSTABILITY WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN
ON SATURDAY A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH COULD BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN INITIATING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS THAT MARCH ACROSS THE MONTANA
PRAIRIE...REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR OF THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BEGINS ITS
STRUGGLE WITH THE WARM AIR OF THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WILL
FLUCTUATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE CWA. WEAK IMPULSES AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING DIFFERENCES INCREASE. BUT
BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS PICK UP AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE THAT
FINALLY PUSHES THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST PLACING US IN COOLER
AIR BY MID-WEEK...PLUS OR MINUS A DAY.

SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THOUGH SMOKE
ORIGINATING FROM FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MALIAWCO



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260054
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
654 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS A BIT EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS.
ALSO ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR EAST. TYPICAL
MONSOONAL TYPE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WHICH MODELS HAVE HARD
TIME RESOLVING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME VIRGA TO LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE WAS ROUNDING THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW...SO MOST OF
THE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN AS VIRGA OR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM.

A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS WYOMING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE THOUGH A BIT OF EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHICH INCREASES MOISTURE SOME. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE
SOME AND THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TOO. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS WE TRANSITION
FROM LONGWAVE RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BRITISH
COLOMBIAN LOW SLOWLY EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AFTER SUNDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS A DEMISE OF A STRONG RIDGE AND A RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER SATURDAY.

THE LAST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE
RIDGE EARLY FRIDAY GIVING MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INVOLVES FIRE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO
WILL INDUCE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THIS UPDATE
I UPPED THE WINDS SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO OUR NORMAL BLEND AS WE
SHOULD MIX FAIRLY WELL. CURRENTLY THINK WE COULD SEE 15-25MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
FRONTAL TIMING...AND WINDS...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS
BEFORE ADDING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATED A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING GOOD VIS BACK TO THE AREA
TERMINALS. THROUGH THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WINDS
WILL CALM TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR AREA TERMINALS AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT. DOBBS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/094 064/088 060/089 061/094 061/084 058/085 053/082
    11/B    23/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 060/090 056/087 053/088 055/091 053/082 050/081 047/079
    21/B    23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/B
HDN 066/097 062/092 058/093 060/097 059/088 057/087 053/086
    11/B    13/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 065/097 064/093 061/094 062/099 064/089 060/087 055/087
    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
4BQ 063/096 062/088 058/092 059/098 061/088 059/087 055/086
    21/B    23/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 059/093 061/087 057/092 059/097 061/089 057/087 053/084
    00/B    33/T    11/B    11/U    22/T    21/B    11/U
SHR 061/092 057/087 053/089 054/096 055/088 053/087 050/084
    22/T    43/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260054
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
654 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS A BIT EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS.
ALSO ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR EAST. TYPICAL
MONSOONAL TYPE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WHICH MODELS HAVE HARD
TIME RESOLVING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME VIRGA TO LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE WAS ROUNDING THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW...SO MOST OF
THE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN AS VIRGA OR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM.

A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS WYOMING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE THOUGH A BIT OF EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHICH INCREASES MOISTURE SOME. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE
SOME AND THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TOO. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS WE TRANSITION
FROM LONGWAVE RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BRITISH
COLOMBIAN LOW SLOWLY EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AFTER SUNDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS A DEMISE OF A STRONG RIDGE AND A RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER SATURDAY.

THE LAST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE
RIDGE EARLY FRIDAY GIVING MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INVOLVES FIRE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO
WILL INDUCE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THIS UPDATE
I UPPED THE WINDS SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO OUR NORMAL BLEND AS WE
SHOULD MIX FAIRLY WELL. CURRENTLY THINK WE COULD SEE 15-25MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
FRONTAL TIMING...AND WINDS...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS
BEFORE ADDING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATED A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING GOOD VIS BACK TO THE AREA
TERMINALS. THROUGH THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WINDS
WILL CALM TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR AREA TERMINALS AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT. DOBBS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/094 064/088 060/089 061/094 061/084 058/085 053/082
    11/B    23/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 060/090 056/087 053/088 055/091 053/082 050/081 047/079
    21/B    23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/B
HDN 066/097 062/092 058/093 060/097 059/088 057/087 053/086
    11/B    13/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 065/097 064/093 061/094 062/099 064/089 060/087 055/087
    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
4BQ 063/096 062/088 058/092 059/098 061/088 059/087 055/086
    21/B    23/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 059/093 061/087 057/092 059/097 061/089 057/087 053/084
    00/B    33/T    11/B    11/U    22/T    21/B    11/U
SHR 061/092 057/087 053/089 054/096 055/088 053/087 050/084
    22/T    43/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260054
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
654 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS A BIT EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS.
ALSO ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR EAST. TYPICAL
MONSOONAL TYPE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WHICH MODELS HAVE HARD
TIME RESOLVING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME VIRGA TO LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE WAS ROUNDING THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW...SO MOST OF
THE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN AS VIRGA OR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM.

A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS WYOMING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE THOUGH A BIT OF EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHICH INCREASES MOISTURE SOME. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE
SOME AND THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TOO. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS WE TRANSITION
FROM LONGWAVE RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BRITISH
COLOMBIAN LOW SLOWLY EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AFTER SUNDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS A DEMISE OF A STRONG RIDGE AND A RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER SATURDAY.

THE LAST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE
RIDGE EARLY FRIDAY GIVING MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INVOLVES FIRE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO
WILL INDUCE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THIS UPDATE
I UPPED THE WINDS SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO OUR NORMAL BLEND AS WE
SHOULD MIX FAIRLY WELL. CURRENTLY THINK WE COULD SEE 15-25MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
FRONTAL TIMING...AND WINDS...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS
BEFORE ADDING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATED A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING GOOD VIS BACK TO THE AREA
TERMINALS. THROUGH THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WINDS
WILL CALM TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR AREA TERMINALS AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT. DOBBS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/094 064/088 060/089 061/094 061/084 058/085 053/082
    11/B    23/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 060/090 056/087 053/088 055/091 053/082 050/081 047/079
    21/B    23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/B
HDN 066/097 062/092 058/093 060/097 059/088 057/087 053/086
    11/B    13/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 065/097 064/093 061/094 062/099 064/089 060/087 055/087
    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
4BQ 063/096 062/088 058/092 059/098 061/088 059/087 055/086
    21/B    23/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 059/093 061/087 057/092 059/097 061/089 057/087 053/084
    00/B    33/T    11/B    11/U    22/T    21/B    11/U
SHR 061/092 057/087 053/089 054/096 055/088 053/087 050/084
    22/T    43/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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