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000
FXUS65 KTFX 030450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
The only changes to the forecast for tonight were to tweak sky
cover and winds. As for winds northwest winds are over the
northern east slopes so adjusted wind forecasts to reflect this.
Still expect a cold front to sweep through most of the area late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. A band of showers moving into
northern Idaho at mid-evening Tuesday should reach the northern
Rocky Mountain Front after midnight so the increase in the chances
of showers from this evening to after midnight in that area looks
fine. Latest available model runs are still on the same page in
keeping the main precipitation with Wednesdays trough north of the
Canadian border. However will update the winter weather advisory
above 6000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain Front to increase
snow amounts above 8000 feet. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will move from SW BC into the
Northern Rockies tonight and across MT on Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft will increase tonight through early Wednesday, shifting to NW
late Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure over central MT tonight
in advance of the upper level system will shift east after midnight,
bringing a wind shift to the West. By early Wednesday morning a
stronger frontal boundary will sweep south from Alberta, shifting
winds to the NW at most terminals by late Wednesday morning.
Cloud-cover will increase tonight from NW to SE across the region
with precipitation initially developing west of the Continental
Divide over NW MT. Showers and MVFR/IFR conditions will spread
further east into the KCTB area by mid-day Wednesday with occasional
MVFR conditions in less widespread precipitation further east on the
North-Central MT plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 549 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 030315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
The only changes to the forecast for tonight were to tweak sky
cover and winds. As for winds northwest winds are over the
northern east slopes so adjusted wind forecasts to reflect this.
Still expect a cold front to sweep through most of the area late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. A band of showers moving into
northern Idaho at mid-evening Tuesday should reach the northern
Rocky Mountain Front after midnight so the increase in the chances
of showers from this evening to after midnight in that area looks
fine. Latest available model runs are still on the same page in
keeping the main precipitation with Wednesdays trough north of the
Canadian border. However will update the winter weather advisory
above 6000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain Front to increase
snow amounts above 8000 feet. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2349Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will move from SW BC into the
Northern Rockies tonight and across MT on Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft will increase tonight through early Wednesday, shifting to NW
late Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
central MT tonight in advance of the upper level system and shift
east after midnight, bringing a wind shift to the West. By early
Wednesday morning a stronger frontal boundary will sweep south from
Alberta, shifting winds to the NW at most terminals by late
Wednesday morning. Cloud-cover will increase tonight from NW to SW
across the region with precipitation initially developing west of
the Continental Divide over NW MT. Showers and MVFR/IFR conditions
will spread further east into the KCTB area by mid-day Wednesday
with scattered MVFR conditions in less widespread precipitation
further east on the North-Central MT plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 549 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 030315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
The only changes to the forecast for tonight were to tweak sky
cover and winds. As for winds northwest winds are over the
northern east slopes so adjusted wind forecasts to reflect this.
Still expect a cold front to sweep through most of the area late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. A band of showers moving into
northern Idaho at mid-evening Tuesday should reach the northern
Rocky Mountain Front after midnight so the increase in the chances
of showers from this evening to after midnight in that area looks
fine. Latest available model runs are still on the same page in
keeping the main precipitation with Wednesdays trough north of the
Canadian border. However will update the winter weather advisory
above 6000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain Front to increase
snow amounts above 8000 feet. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2349Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will move from SW BC into the
Northern Rockies tonight and across MT on Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft will increase tonight through early Wednesday, shifting to NW
late Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
central MT tonight in advance of the upper level system and shift
east after midnight, bringing a wind shift to the West. By early
Wednesday morning a stronger frontal boundary will sweep south from
Alberta, shifting winds to the NW at most terminals by late
Wednesday morning. Cloud-cover will increase tonight from NW to SW
across the region with precipitation initially developing west of
the Continental Divide over NW MT. Showers and MVFR/IFR conditions
will spread further east into the KCTB area by mid-day Wednesday
with scattered MVFR conditions in less widespread precipitation
further east on the North-Central MT plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 549 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 030315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
The only changes to the forecast for tonight were to tweak sky
cover and winds. As for winds northwest winds are over the
northern east slopes so adjusted wind forecasts to reflect this.
Still expect a cold front to sweep through most of the area late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. A band of showers moving into
northern Idaho at mid-evening Tuesday should reach the northern
Rocky Mountain Front after midnight so the increase in the chances
of showers from this evening to after midnight in that area looks
fine. Latest available model runs are still on the same page in
keeping the main precipitation with Wednesdays trough north of the
Canadian border. However will update the winter weather advisory
above 6000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain Front to increase
snow amounts above 8000 feet. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2349Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will move from SW BC into the
Northern Rockies tonight and across MT on Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft will increase tonight through early Wednesday, shifting to NW
late Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
central MT tonight in advance of the upper level system and shift
east after midnight, bringing a wind shift to the West. By early
Wednesday morning a stronger frontal boundary will sweep south from
Alberta, shifting winds to the NW at most terminals by late
Wednesday morning. Cloud-cover will increase tonight from NW to SW
across the region with precipitation initially developing west of
the Continental Divide over NW MT. Showers and MVFR/IFR conditions
will spread further east into the KCTB area by mid-day Wednesday
with scattered MVFR conditions in less widespread precipitation
further east on the North-Central MT plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 549 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 030315
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...
The only changes to the forecast for tonight were to tweak sky
cover and winds. As for winds northwest winds are over the
northern east slopes so adjusted wind forecasts to reflect this.
Still expect a cold front to sweep through most of the area late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. A band of showers moving into
northern Idaho at mid-evening Tuesday should reach the northern
Rocky Mountain Front after midnight so the increase in the chances
of showers from this evening to after midnight in that area looks
fine. Latest available model runs are still on the same page in
keeping the main precipitation with Wednesdays trough north of the
Canadian border. However will update the winter weather advisory
above 6000 feet for the northern Rocky Mountain Front to increase
snow amounts above 8000 feet. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2349Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will move from SW BC into the
Northern Rockies tonight and across MT on Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft will increase tonight through early Wednesday, shifting to NW
late Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
central MT tonight in advance of the upper level system and shift
east after midnight, bringing a wind shift to the West. By early
Wednesday morning a stronger frontal boundary will sweep south from
Alberta, shifting winds to the NW at most terminals by late
Wednesday morning. Cloud-cover will increase tonight from NW to SW
across the region with precipitation initially developing west of
the Continental Divide over NW MT. Showers and MVFR/IFR conditions
will spread further east into the KCTB area by mid-day Wednesday
with scattered MVFR conditions in less widespread precipitation
further east on the North-Central MT plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 549 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030248
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ADJUST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGHER. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERMAL LOW/LEE
SIDE TROF OVER WESTERN ZONES IS DELINEATING VERY DRY AIR AND
STILL GUSTY WINDS OVER THE LIVINGSTON AND FOOTHILLS AREAS FROM
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED.

UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING FOR
WESTERN ZONES...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPAND TO THE EAST WITH PRE-
FRONTAL TROFING...PROBABLY BEFORE SUNRISE FOR AREAS WEST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT WINDY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO MILES CITY LINE TOMORROW.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-MILES CITY-BAKER LINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT THE FRONT WILL BRING WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY





.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. MODELS STILL INDICATING
MODERATE QG FORCING MOVING THROUGH BUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF
VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR PLAINS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STRONG MIXING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
STRONG FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALSO FALLING WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT
INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/075 046/065 046/070 049/075 050/078 054/079 053/066
    02/T    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 045/073 039/065 037/070 041/074 043/077 048/078 046/066
    02/T    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 052/077 050/065 049/073 050/077 052/080 054/082 053/069
    01/N    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 054/078 049/065 047/072 051/077 052/081 057/082 055/067
    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 053/083 050/064 048/072 050/077 052/081 056/082 056/067
    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 049/079 046/064 043/069 048/073 049/078 054/080 055/071
    11/U    21/N    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 048/081 044/066 043/071 045/075 048/079 052/081 051/067
    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030248
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ADJUST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGHER. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERMAL LOW/LEE
SIDE TROF OVER WESTERN ZONES IS DELINEATING VERY DRY AIR AND
STILL GUSTY WINDS OVER THE LIVINGSTON AND FOOTHILLS AREAS FROM
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED.

UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING FOR
WESTERN ZONES...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPAND TO THE EAST WITH PRE-
FRONTAL TROFING...PROBABLY BEFORE SUNRISE FOR AREAS WEST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT WINDY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO MILES CITY LINE TOMORROW.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-MILES CITY-BAKER LINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT THE FRONT WILL BRING WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY





.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. MODELS STILL INDICATING
MODERATE QG FORCING MOVING THROUGH BUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF
VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR PLAINS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STRONG MIXING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
STRONG FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALSO FALLING WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT
INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/075 046/065 046/070 049/075 050/078 054/079 053/066
    02/T    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 045/073 039/065 037/070 041/074 043/077 048/078 046/066
    02/T    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 052/077 050/065 049/073 050/077 052/080 054/082 053/069
    01/N    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 054/078 049/065 047/072 051/077 052/081 057/082 055/067
    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 053/083 050/064 048/072 050/077 052/081 056/082 056/067
    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 049/079 046/064 043/069 048/073 049/078 054/080 055/071
    11/U    21/N    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 048/081 044/066 043/071 045/075 048/079 052/081 051/067
    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030248
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ADJUST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGHER. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERMAL LOW/LEE
SIDE TROF OVER WESTERN ZONES IS DELINEATING VERY DRY AIR AND
STILL GUSTY WINDS OVER THE LIVINGSTON AND FOOTHILLS AREAS FROM
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED.

UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING FOR
WESTERN ZONES...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPAND TO THE EAST WITH PRE-
FRONTAL TROFING...PROBABLY BEFORE SUNRISE FOR AREAS WEST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT WINDY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO MILES CITY LINE TOMORROW.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-MILES CITY-BAKER LINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT THE FRONT WILL BRING WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY





.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. MODELS STILL INDICATING
MODERATE QG FORCING MOVING THROUGH BUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF
VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR PLAINS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STRONG MIXING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
STRONG FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALSO FALLING WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT
INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/075 046/065 046/070 049/075 050/078 054/079 053/066
    02/T    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 045/073 039/065 037/070 041/074 043/077 048/078 046/066
    02/T    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 052/077 050/065 049/073 050/077 052/080 054/082 053/069
    01/N    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 054/078 049/065 047/072 051/077 052/081 057/082 055/067
    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 053/083 050/064 048/072 050/077 052/081 056/082 056/067
    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 049/079 046/064 043/069 048/073 049/078 054/080 055/071
    11/U    21/N    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 048/081 044/066 043/071 045/075 048/079 052/081 051/067
    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030248
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ADJUST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGHER. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THERMAL LOW/LEE
SIDE TROF OVER WESTERN ZONES IS DELINEATING VERY DRY AIR AND
STILL GUSTY WINDS OVER THE LIVINGSTON AND FOOTHILLS AREAS FROM
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED.

UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING FOR
WESTERN ZONES...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPAND TO THE EAST WITH PRE-
FRONTAL TROFING...PROBABLY BEFORE SUNRISE FOR AREAS WEST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT WINDY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO MILES CITY LINE TOMORROW.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-MILES CITY-BAKER LINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT THE FRONT WILL BRING WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY





.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. MODELS STILL INDICATING
MODERATE QG FORCING MOVING THROUGH BUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF
VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR PLAINS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STRONG MIXING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
STRONG FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALSO FALLING WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT
INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/075 046/065 046/070 049/075 050/078 054/079 053/066
    02/T    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 045/073 039/065 037/070 041/074 043/077 048/078 046/066
    02/T    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 052/077 050/065 049/073 050/077 052/080 054/082 053/069
    01/N    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 054/078 049/065 047/072 051/077 052/081 057/082 055/067
    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 053/083 050/064 048/072 050/077 052/081 056/082 056/067
    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 049/079 046/064 043/069 048/073 049/078 054/080 055/071
    11/U    21/N    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 048/081 044/066 043/071 045/075 048/079 052/081 051/067
    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 030242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE REGION FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING THAT BROUGHT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME
SWEEPING THROUGH...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FORT
PECK LAKE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AND
WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE COOL IN NATURE...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE TUESDAY TIME-FRAME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND ENERGETIC THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXPEND MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BRING ABOUT
LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

WINDS: TONIGHT...EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10KT NEAR KGGW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20KTS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT NEAR
NOON.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 030242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE REGION FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING THAT BROUGHT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME
SWEEPING THROUGH...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FORT
PECK LAKE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AND
WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE COOL IN NATURE...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE TUESDAY TIME-FRAME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND ENERGETIC THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXPEND MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BRING ABOUT
LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

WINDS: TONIGHT...EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10KT NEAR KGGW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20KTS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT NEAR
NOON.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 030242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE REGION FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING THAT BROUGHT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME
SWEEPING THROUGH...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FORT
PECK LAKE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AND
WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE COOL IN NATURE...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE TUESDAY TIME-FRAME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND ENERGETIC THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXPEND MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BRING ABOUT
LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

WINDS: TONIGHT...EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10KT NEAR KGGW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20KTS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT NEAR
NOON.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 030242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE REGION FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING THAT BROUGHT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME
SWEEPING THROUGH...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FORT
PECK LAKE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AND
WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE COOL IN NATURE...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE TUESDAY TIME-FRAME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT...GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND ENERGETIC THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXPEND MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BRING ABOUT
LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

WINDS: TONIGHT...EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10KT NEAR KGGW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20KTS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT NEAR
NOON.

SCT


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 022349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
549 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2349Z.
An upper level trough of low pressure will move from SW BC into the
Northern Rockies tonight and across MT on Wednesday. Westerly flow
aloft will increase tonight through early Wednesday, shifting to NW
late Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
central MT tonight in advance of the upper level system and shift
east after midnight, bringing a wind shift to the West. By early
Wednesday morning a stronger frontal boundary will sweep south from
Alberta, shifting winds to the NW at most terminals by late
Wednesday morning. Cloud-cover will increase tonight from NW to SW
across the region with precipitation initially developing west of
the Continental Divide over NW MT. Showers and MVFR/IFR conditions
will spread further east into the KCTB area by mid-day Wednesday
with scattered MVFR conditions in less widespread precipitation
further east on the North-Central MT plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 022055
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
255 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...A cold front approaching the area from the northwest
will bring significant rain and high elevation snow to Northwest
Montana. The general air mass with this system is relatively dry
for this time of year, but there is enough moisture that the areas
under the center of the system will get half an inch to three
quarters of an inch of precipitation. Higher amounts are possible
along the Continental Divide. Snow levels will fall after midnight
tonight, causing high elevation snow above 6,000 feet, but
especially above 7,000 feet into Wednesday afternoon. A winter
weather advisory has been issued for Glacier National Park as a
result. The rest of Western Montana and central Idaho will get
relatively little precipitation with mainly just cooler
temperatures.

By Thursday morning, many higher elevation valleys will be
freezing, with frost likely and a freeze possible in the
Flathead, Mission, Missoula, and Bitterroot valleys. Right now
guidance is oddly warm for Thursday and Friday mornings, but this
is typical with low temperatures forecast about 10 degrees below
average. Frost, freeze, and the morning temperatures overall will
be strongly dependent on cloud cover. And with this system being
relatively dry in most areas went on the cold side of the
forecast.

Beyond Wednesday and Thursday morning northwest flow will keep the
area under partly cloudy skies with near normal temperatures and
breezy afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect increasing cloud cover and showers developing
in northwest Montana tonight behind a cold front. The air mass is
relatively dry with this front, but the main focus of moisture and
forcing is over northwestern Montana mainly affecting the area
around KGPI after 03Z. Elsewhere, just expect increasing clouds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     Glacier National Park west of the Continental Divide IN THE
     Flathead/Glacier Park...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 022047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Upper level moisture within a strong westerly jet stream is
producing mid- and high-level cigs over North-central Montana.
Turbulence may be encountered amid these mountain-wave induced
clouds east of the Continental Divide. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through 09z Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase with
lowering ceilings early Wednesday, creating obscurations over the
Rocky mountains. Precipitation and MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread
east along a line from KCTB to KHVR after 14z Wednesday while snow
levels lower to around 6500 ft MSL. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 022047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Upper level moisture within a strong westerly jet stream is
producing mid- and high-level cigs over North-central Montana.
Turbulence may be encountered amid these mountain-wave induced
clouds east of the Continental Divide. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through 09z Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase with
lowering ceilings early Wednesday, creating obscurations over the
Rocky mountains. Precipitation and MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread
east along a line from KCTB to KHVR after 14z Wednesday while snow
levels lower to around 6500 ft MSL. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 022047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Upper level moisture within a strong westerly jet stream is
producing mid- and high-level cigs over North-central Montana.
Turbulence may be encountered amid these mountain-wave induced
clouds east of the Continental Divide. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through 09z Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase with
lowering ceilings early Wednesday, creating obscurations over the
Rocky mountains. Precipitation and MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread
east along a line from KCTB to KHVR after 14z Wednesday while snow
levels lower to around 6500 ft MSL. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 022047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Water vapor shows the upper level low
pressure trof over the Pacific approaching the West Coast. This trof
will move through the Pacific Northwest during the night. The trof
will broaden and slow Wednesday as it crosses the Rockies. Most of
the dynamics will remain in Canada. However, the associated cold
front will push through northern portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning and bring precip and colder temps to the area. Current
timing shows the front through Cut Bank by 9z and the colder air
should be moving into Great Falls around sunrise. The push south
will be weak and the low level moisture associated with this front
will mainly affect the Hiline. Brisk winds will develop as the front
moves through the region, and these strong winds will continue into
the early evening. The air mass will be slightly unstable across the
northern portions of the CWA although the chance of thunder will be
slight. The trof will be slow to move out of the area but heights
aloft will be rising again by Thursday. The zones will be under
northwest flow aloft and this will keep the air mass cool and temps
will be slow to recover. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Upper level moisture within a strong westerly jet stream is
producing mid- and high-level cigs over North-central Montana.
Turbulence may be encountered amid these mountain-wave induced
clouds east of the Continental Divide. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through 09z Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase with
lowering ceilings early Wednesday, creating obscurations over the
Rocky mountains. Precipitation and MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread
east along a line from KCTB to KHVR after 14z Wednesday while snow
levels lower to around 6500 ft MSL. Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  63  42  67 /  10  40  30  10
CTB  45  56  38  67 /  20  70  30  10
HLN  49  66  43  69 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  44  65  37  63 /   0  20  10  10
WEY  35  61  26  57 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  45  64  37  63 /  10  20  10   0
HVR  49  66  43  69 /  10  50  30  10
LWT  49  64  42  63 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-MILES CITY-BAKER LINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT THE FRONT WILL BRING WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. MODELS STILL INDICATING
MODERATE QG FORCING MOVING THROUGH BUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF
VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR PLAINS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STRONG MIXING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
STRONG FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALSO FALLING WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE AREA  BUT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/075 046/065 046/070 049/075 050/078 054/079 053/066
    02/T    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 045/073 039/065 037/070 041/074 043/077 048/078 046/066
    02/T    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 052/077 050/065 049/073 050/077 052/080 054/082 053/069
    01/N    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 054/078 049/065 047/072 051/077 052/081 057/082 055/067
    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 053/083 050/064 048/072 050/077 052/081 056/082 056/067
    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 049/079 046/064 043/069 048/073 049/078 054/080 055/071
    11/U    21/N    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 048/081 044/066 043/071 045/075 048/079 052/081 051/067
    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER AS WELL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-MILES CITY-BAKER LINE.
THE MAIN IMPACT THE FRONT WILL BRING WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. MODELS STILL INDICATING
MODERATE QG FORCING MOVING THROUGH BUT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF
VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR PLAINS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STRONG MIXING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
STRONG FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ALSO FALLING WITH MID 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE AREA  BUT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/075 046/065 046/070 049/075 050/078 054/079 053/066
    02/T    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 045/073 039/065 037/070 041/074 043/077 048/078 046/066
    02/T    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 052/077 050/065 049/073 050/077 052/080 054/082 053/069
    01/N    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 054/078 049/065 047/072 051/077 052/081 057/082 055/067
    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 053/083 050/064 048/072 050/077 052/081 056/082 056/067
    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 049/079 046/064 043/069 048/073 049/078 054/080 055/071
    11/U    21/N    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 048/081 044/066 043/071 045/075 048/079 052/081 051/067
    01/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 022009
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
209 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING THAT BROUGHT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
COME SWEEPING THROUGH...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR FORT PECK LAKE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AND
WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE COOL IN NATURE...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE. GILCHRIST

WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL.
THEN...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. EITHER WAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: FROM THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BECOMING LIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT... THEN
SWITCHING BACK TO THE WEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT NEAR NOON.
GAH


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 022009
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
209 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING THAT BROUGHT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREA BUT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
COME SWEEPING THROUGH...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR FORT PECK LAKE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AND
WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BE COOL IN NATURE...WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING COOLER MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE. GILCHRIST

WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL.
THEN...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. EITHER WAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: FROM THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BECOMING LIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT... THEN
SWITCHING BACK TO THE WEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT NEAR NOON.
GAH


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KTFX 021754
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure aloft will keep the air mass dry and stable
today. The next low pressure trof will cause some difficulties
over the Northern Rockies and a winter weather advisory, mainly
for Glacier Park, has been issued. Will generally be looking for
rather cool temps and some snow at the higher elevations impacting
recreationalists. Will also keep the high wind warning in place
over the Northern Rockies although the areas affected are quite
small. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Upper level moisture within a strong westerly jet stream is
producing mid- and high-level cigs over North-central Montana.
Turbulence may be encountered amid these mountain-wave induced
clouds east of the Continental Divide. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through 09z Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase with
lowering ceilings early Wednesday, creating obscurations over the
Rocky mountains. Precipitation and MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread
east along a line from KCTB to KHVR after 14z Wednesday while snow
levels lower to around 6500 ft MSL. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 021754
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure aloft will keep the air mass dry and stable
today. The next low pressure trof will cause some difficulties
over the Northern Rockies and a winter weather advisory, mainly
for Glacier Park, has been issued. Will generally be looking for
rather cool temps and some snow at the higher elevations impacting
recreationalists. Will also keep the high wind warning in place
over the Northern Rockies although the areas affected are quite
small. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Upper level moisture within a strong westerly jet stream is
producing mid- and high-level cigs over North-central Montana.
Turbulence may be encountered amid these mountain-wave induced
clouds east of the Continental Divide. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through 09z Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase with
lowering ceilings early Wednesday, creating obscurations over the
Rocky mountains. Precipitation and MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread
east along a line from KCTB to KHVR after 14z Wednesday while snow
levels lower to around 6500 ft MSL. Nutter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 021618
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1018 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure aloft will keep the air mass dry and stable
today. The next low pressure trof will cause some difficulties
over the Northern Rockies and a winter weather advisory, mainly
for Glacier Park, has been issued. Will generally be looking for
rather cool temps and some snow at the higher elevations impacting
recreationalists. Will also keep the high wind warning in place
over the Northern Rockies although the areas affected are quite
small. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Breezy mid level winds...but VFR conditions will prevail over the
region through 06z Wednesday. Other than some passing mid/high level
clouds...quiet conditions are expected. After 6z Wednesday...expect
increasing mid clouds...with precip developing over the Rocky
Mountain Front. The precip/low ceilings will spread out over the
Plains of North Central MT after 12z Wednesday...with IFR/MVFR
conditions likely. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 021618
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1018 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure aloft will keep the air mass dry and stable
today. The next low pressure trof will cause some difficulties
over the Northern Rockies and a winter weather advisory, mainly
for Glacier Park, has been issued. Will generally be looking for
rather cool temps and some snow at the higher elevations impacting
recreationalists. Will also keep the high wind warning in place
over the Northern Rockies although the areas affected are quite
small. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Breezy mid level winds...but VFR conditions will prevail over the
region through 06z Wednesday. Other than some passing mid/high level
clouds...quiet conditions are expected. After 6z Wednesday...expect
increasing mid clouds...with precip developing over the Rocky
Mountain Front. The precip/low ceilings will spread out over the
Plains of North Central MT after 12z Wednesday...with IFR/MVFR
conditions likely. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014/
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 021437
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
837 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST NORTH WEST. THESE ARE NOT
REALLY EXPECTED TO FORM ANY KIND OF SHOWERS TODAY AS WARM AIR
ALOFT STABILIZES OUT THE ATMOPSHERE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND OUT
OF THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED UP OVER MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT BY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC-NW FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGING ACTION WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BUMP UP CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR A DRY
DAY AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SENDS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURE GO FROM 18C AT 12Z TO 4C
24 HOURS LATER. THIS STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IS POSSIBLE. THE EARLY TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MIGHT PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS PLACE THE BASE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IN SASKATCHEWAN THAT
WILL RESULT IN MOST STRONG PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CAA WILL ALSO DROP LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL START TO THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 60S. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL.
THEN...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. EITHER WAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...GOING WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG



&&

.AVIATION...

NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG



&&

.AVIATION...

NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG



&&

.AVIATION...

NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THESE SHOULD BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG



&&

.AVIATION...

NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 021153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Breezy mid level winds...but VFR conditions will prevail over the
region through 06z Wednesday. Other than some passing mid/high level
clouds...quiet conditions are expected. After 6z Wednesday...expect
increasing mid clouds...with precip developing over the Rocky
Mountain Front. The precip/low ceilings will spread out over the
Plains of North Central MT after 12z Wednesday...with IFR/MVFR
conditions likely. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 021153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Breezy mid level winds...but VFR conditions will prevail over the
region through 06z Wednesday. Other than some passing mid/high level
clouds...quiet conditions are expected. After 6z Wednesday...expect
increasing mid clouds...with precip developing over the Rocky
Mountain Front. The precip/low ceilings will spread out over the
Plains of North Central MT after 12z Wednesday...with IFR/MVFR
conditions likely. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 021153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Breezy mid level winds...but VFR conditions will prevail over the
region through 06z Wednesday. Other than some passing mid/high level
clouds...quiet conditions are expected. After 6z Wednesday...expect
increasing mid clouds...with precip developing over the Rocky
Mountain Front. The precip/low ceilings will spread out over the
Plains of North Central MT after 12z Wednesday...with IFR/MVFR
conditions likely. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 021153
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Breezy mid level winds...but VFR conditions will prevail over the
region through 06z Wednesday. Other than some passing mid/high level
clouds...quiet conditions are expected. After 6z Wednesday...expect
increasing mid clouds...with precip developing over the Rocky
Mountain Front. The precip/low ceilings will spread out over the
Plains of North Central MT after 12z Wednesday...with IFR/MVFR
conditions likely. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KMSO 020954
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
353 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to be present over the Northern
Rockies through today. Daytime temperatures will be pleasant
during this time, however slightly below the seasonal average.
Clouds and winds will be on the increase this afternoon as well.

Another relatively cold storm system will impact the Northern
Rockies Tuesday evening through Wednesday, bringing widespread
rain to mainly northwest Montana and cooling temperatures once
again across the entire region. Snow levels are anticipated to
drop to 6500 feet Wednesday night, allowing rain over Glacier Park
to briefly change over to snow during this time. Despite minimal
snow accumulations forecast, cold rain will present a hypothermia
risk for those recreating at high elevations and in the back
country.

Thursday through midday Monday, high pressure will return to the
Northern Rockies. Dry and steadily warming conditions are expected
during this time. Morning temperatures will be plenty cold to
support frost in high elevation valleys both Thursday and Friday
mornings. Sensitive plants and vegetable gardens are likely to be
damaged by near-freezing temperatures.

Global models continue to depict an additional cold storm system
moving across the Northern Rockies beginning midday Monday through
Wednesday next week. The recent and continuing cool pattern over
the region shows little sign of ending. Model ensemble solutions
continue to coalesce around a persistent ridge of high pressure
south of the Gulf of Alaska, thus maintaining a northwesterly
oriented storm track over the Northern Rockies. Bottom line: Fall
is here.

&&

.AVIATION...Mid to high level clouds will continue to stream
across northwest Montana. Gusty westerly winds are expected
redevelop this afternoon/evening for KMSO, KGPI and KBTM as the
atmosphere destabilizes. Tonight, a cold front will swing into the
Northern Rockies which will cause breezy conditions by Wednesday.
The precipitation appears to remain north of the I-90 corridor,
mainly impacting KGPI.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Zumpfe
Aviation...Smith

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 020954
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
353 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to be present over the Northern
Rockies through today. Daytime temperatures will be pleasant
during this time, however slightly below the seasonal average.
Clouds and winds will be on the increase this afternoon as well.

Another relatively cold storm system will impact the Northern
Rockies Tuesday evening through Wednesday, bringing widespread
rain to mainly northwest Montana and cooling temperatures once
again across the entire region. Snow levels are anticipated to
drop to 6500 feet Wednesday night, allowing rain over Glacier Park
to briefly change over to snow during this time. Despite minimal
snow accumulations forecast, cold rain will present a hypothermia
risk for those recreating at high elevations and in the back
country.

Thursday through midday Monday, high pressure will return to the
Northern Rockies. Dry and steadily warming conditions are expected
during this time. Morning temperatures will be plenty cold to
support frost in high elevation valleys both Thursday and Friday
mornings. Sensitive plants and vegetable gardens are likely to be
damaged by near-freezing temperatures.

Global models continue to depict an additional cold storm system
moving across the Northern Rockies beginning midday Monday through
Wednesday next week. The recent and continuing cool pattern over
the region shows little sign of ending. Model ensemble solutions
continue to coalesce around a persistent ridge of high pressure
south of the Gulf of Alaska, thus maintaining a northwesterly
oriented storm track over the Northern Rockies. Bottom line: Fall
is here.

&&

.AVIATION...Mid to high level clouds will continue to stream
across northwest Montana. Gusty westerly winds are expected
redevelop this afternoon/evening for KMSO, KGPI and KBTM as the
atmosphere destabilizes. Tonight, a cold front will swing into the
Northern Rockies which will cause breezy conditions by Wednesday.
The precipitation appears to remain north of the I-90 corridor,
mainly impacting KGPI.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Zumpfe
Aviation...Smith

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 020932
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 020932
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 020932
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 020932
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...Upper ridging over the area today will
provide dry and stable conditions along with warmer temperatures.
Gusty winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front have prompted
a high wind warning through the afternoon. Winds may decrease a
bit this morning but speeds should pick up again by afternoon. An
approaching upper trof tonight night will allow southwest flow
aloft to increase and showers will be possible along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The upper trof moves across the Hi-Line Wednesday,
pushing a cold front south. Cooler air aloft and associated lift
with the trof passage will allow showers to develop with isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Models continue to indicate
the heaviest precipitation should stay north of the border. Snow
levels drop to just below 7000 feet Wednesday and accumulating
snow will be possible over the higher peaks of Glacier National
Park. Dry northwest flow aloft returns Thursday. Temperatures will
be near seasonal averages today but drop some 10 to 15 degrees
below averages Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Tuesday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over the Pacific Northwest from Friday through
Sunday. As a result...summer like conditions will prevail over the
region this weekend...with little to no rainfall and mild/warm
temperatures expected over the region. Afternoon highs will warm
from the lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s by Sunday. For Monday
and Tuesday...an upper level trof of low pressure will swing through
the region...resulting in the chance for scattered showers to move
through the region. Temperatures will also cool a bit...with highs
in the lower 70s on Monday and in the 60s for Tuesday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  50  63  42 /   0  10  40  20
CTB  72  45  56  39 /   0  10  70  20
HLN  79  49  66  43 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  77  45  67  38 /   0   0  20  10
WEY  65  36  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  77  46  65  38 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  77  49  67  44 /   0  10  50  20
LWT  75  50  65  43 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 020900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED UP OVER MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT BY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC-NW FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGING ACTION WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BUMP UP CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR A DRY
DAY AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SENDS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURE GO FROM 18C AT 12Z TO 4C
24 HOURS LATER. THIS STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IS POSSIBLE. THE EARLY TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MIGHT PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS PLACE THE BASE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IN SASKATCHEWAN THAT
WILL RESULT IN MOST STRONG PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CAA WILL ALSO DROP LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL START TO THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 60S. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...GOING WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 020900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED UP OVER MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT BY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC-NW FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGING ACTION WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BUMP UP CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR A DRY
DAY AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SENDS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURE GO FROM 18C AT 12Z TO 4C
24 HOURS LATER. THIS STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IS POSSIBLE. THE EARLY TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MIGHT PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS PLACE THE BASE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IN SASKATCHEWAN THAT
WILL RESULT IN MOST STRONG PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CAA WILL ALSO DROP LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL START TO THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 60S. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...GOING WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020858
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
258 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NO
AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020858
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
258 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NO
AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 020443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 020443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 020317 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST SKY...POP AND WX GRIDS TO ALIGN BETTER
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. BUT MOST CHANGES WERE MINOR. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR...A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS
EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS
BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 020317 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST SKY...POP AND WX GRIDS TO ALIGN BETTER
WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. BUT MOST CHANGES WERE MINOR. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR...A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY...MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS
EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR
THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS
BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 020259
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 020259
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
859 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL BRING A CHILLY
MORNING TOMORROW. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. SOME WESTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
AREA MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED
EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 041/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 047/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 050/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 048/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 048/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    00/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL BRING A CHILLY
MORNING TOMORROW. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. SOME WESTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
AREA MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED
EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 041/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 047/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 050/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 048/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 048/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    00/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL BRING A CHILLY
MORNING TOMORROW. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. SOME WESTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
AREA MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED
EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 041/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 047/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 050/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 048/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 048/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    00/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL BRING A CHILLY
MORNING TOMORROW. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. SOME WESTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
AREA MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED
EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 041/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 047/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 050/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 048/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 048/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    00/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 012254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 012254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 012252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 012252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 012252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 012252
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2252Z.
Benign weather is expected through Tuesday. Gusty westerly winds
will diminish early this evening. Areas of mid-level ceilings over
the eastern plains will dissipate by dark with clear or mostly clear
skies over the entire forecast area at that time. Late this evening
through after midnight ceilings well above 15000 feet will spread
southeast over the forecast area and continue into Tuesday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK
OF THE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
BRINING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WENDESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
REACHED EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION BY 03Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 042/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 050/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 052/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 051/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 047/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    10/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KMSO 012051
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
251 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...The upper level flow over the next 24 hours will
shift from northwesterly to southwesterly in advance of a strong
upper level trough quickly approaching from the Gulf of Alaska.
This will result in another nice late summer day on Tuesday with
breezy winds and increasing afternoon clouds. A few late afternoon
showers may be possible along the International Border as the
system approaches.

Tuesday night a cold front will impact the northern Rockies.
Current model runs do not have a lot of overall moisture with the
system, but it is a very strong system. So even with somewhat
limited moisture available, model trends indicate it will be able
to produce a quarter to a half inch of rain over much of Northwest
Montana Tuesday night and Wednesday. Higher amounts are likely
over Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshal Wilderness. Most of
the precipitation will stay well north of Interstate 90. It is
also very likely that many high mountain locations will receive
some snow, but no passes are expected to be affected with snow
level above 7,000 ft at this time. Those planning to be in the
high country of Northwest Montana this weekend should be prepared
for ideal conditions for hypothermia with cool temperatures,
significant rain, breezy conditions, and the potential for mixed
precipitation.

Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal in the cold air mass
behind the front will bring the first widespread risk of frost to
much of Western Montana, including the Missoula, Bitterroot,
Mission, and Flathead valleys. Areas near Interstate 90 and south
of Interstate 90 in Western Montana are more at risk, whereas
locations farther north that get more rain will also likely have
more clouds preventing the frost. In any case, it will be a cold
morning for early September likely affecting sensitive plants left
exposed.

The exiting trough will leave northwest flow aloft in place across
the Northern Rockies into the weekend. Breezy afternoons and
temperatures running near normal are anticipated. Models are
showing yet another, perhaps stronger upper level trough dropping
out of Canada during the early to mid part of next week.
Confidence in this solution is better than normal a week out given
that little, if any, ridging is expected to develop over the next
week and a large scale trough is maintained across the country.
In fact, this trough could be the coldest yet! Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy winds should be expected at KBTM, KMSO and
KGPI again tomorrow as the atmosphere destabilizes during the
afternoon. But overall pleasant late summer conditions are
anticipated at all air fields over the next 24 hours.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 012051
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
251 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...The upper level flow over the next 24 hours will
shift from northwesterly to southwesterly in advance of a strong
upper level trough quickly approaching from the Gulf of Alaska.
This will result in another nice late summer day on Tuesday with
breezy winds and increasing afternoon clouds. A few late afternoon
showers may be possible along the International Border as the
system approaches.

Tuesday night a cold front will impact the northern Rockies.
Current model runs do not have a lot of overall moisture with the
system, but it is a very strong system. So even with somewhat
limited moisture available, model trends indicate it will be able
to produce a quarter to a half inch of rain over much of Northwest
Montana Tuesday night and Wednesday. Higher amounts are likely
over Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshal Wilderness. Most of
the precipitation will stay well north of Interstate 90. It is
also very likely that many high mountain locations will receive
some snow, but no passes are expected to be affected with snow
level above 7,000 ft at this time. Those planning to be in the
high country of Northwest Montana this weekend should be prepared
for ideal conditions for hypothermia with cool temperatures,
significant rain, breezy conditions, and the potential for mixed
precipitation.

Temperatures around 10 degrees below normal in the cold air mass
behind the front will bring the first widespread risk of frost to
much of Western Montana, including the Missoula, Bitterroot,
Mission, and Flathead valleys. Areas near Interstate 90 and south
of Interstate 90 in Western Montana are more at risk, whereas
locations farther north that get more rain will also likely have
more clouds preventing the frost. In any case, it will be a cold
morning for early September likely affecting sensitive plants left
exposed.

The exiting trough will leave northwest flow aloft in place across
the Northern Rockies into the weekend. Breezy afternoons and
temperatures running near normal are anticipated. Models are
showing yet another, perhaps stronger upper level trough dropping
out of Canada during the early to mid part of next week.
Confidence in this solution is better than normal a week out given
that little, if any, ridging is expected to develop over the next
week and a large scale trough is maintained across the country.
In fact, this trough could be the coldest yet! Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy winds should be expected at KBTM, KMSO and
KGPI again tomorrow as the atmosphere destabilizes during the
afternoon. But overall pleasant late summer conditions are
anticipated at all air fields over the next 24 hours.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 012039
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 012039
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 012019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR... A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE... TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY... MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 012019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR... A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE... TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY... MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 012019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR... A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE... TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY... MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 012019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE AREA OF HOT HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE SPUR CREEPING UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD TROUGH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL US
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE A
LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH IS EXITING THE THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
RUNNING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BC COASTLINE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... PEAK HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
FROM THE BROAD EXITING TROUGH WILL GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER NIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR... A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER
BOTTOMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LIGHT RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... DESERTS SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTH. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM THE MID LEVELS AND
STABILIZE OUT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE... TROUGH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLAM INTO THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FORM A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY... MOMENTUM FROM THE THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
OVERPOWER THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND DRAG IN A
SHORTWAVE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE. DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS OVER THE LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN TROUGH AND MIX
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE LAYER QUICKLY MORPHING THE TROUGH
INTO A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE
CWA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING CAA IN THE FORM OF
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE VORT MAX ENERGY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THEIR OWN THUNDER.

GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING THEN REBOUNDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS AND SKY TOWARD THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: SOUTHWEST AT 5-15KTS...GOING WESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 011732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/ Today
through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the Hi-Line
early this morning is responsible for isolated shower activity.
This activity should be east of the county warning area by 8 am.
The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the flow aloft
continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability this
afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front,
including Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for
precipitation from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the
possibility of 2 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in
Glacier Park. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages to start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/ Today
through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the Hi-Line
early this morning is responsible for isolated shower activity.
This activity should be east of the county warning area by 8 am.
The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the flow aloft
continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability this
afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front,
including Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for
precipitation from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the
possibility of 2 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in
Glacier Park. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages to start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/ Today
through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the Hi-Line
early this morning is responsible for isolated shower activity.
This activity should be east of the county warning area by 8 am.
The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the flow aloft
continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability this
afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front,
including Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for
precipitation from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the
possibility of 2 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in
Glacier Park. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages to start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/ Today
through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the Hi-Line
early this morning is responsible for isolated shower activity.
This activity should be east of the county warning area by 8 am.
The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the flow aloft
continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability this
afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front,
including Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for
precipitation from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the
possibility of 2 inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in
Glacier Park. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages to start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below
seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011457
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG JET STREAM COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA HAS RESULTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED INTO BIG HORN AND
SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. HAVE
REMOVED POPS OR LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING FROM BILLINGS WEST AND NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURNED
SLIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM HARDIN TO SHERIDAN. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM BILLINGS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    4/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011457
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG JET STREAM COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA HAS RESULTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED INTO BIG HORN AND
SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. HAVE
REMOVED POPS OR LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING FROM BILLINGS WEST AND NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURNED
SLIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM HARDIN TO SHERIDAN. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM BILLINGS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    4/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 011455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Expect a passing light rain shower over the Rocky Mountain Front and
the northern Plains today...but these showers should not impact the
main terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period...with generally mid/high level clouds expected. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 011455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure is slowly building over Central Montana and
the airmass will continue to dry. Will drop the showers from the
extreme the Northern Rockies and extreme northeast zones since the
convective temp is quite high. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Expect a passing light rain shower over the Rocky Mountain Front and
the northern Plains today...but these showers should not impact the
main terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period...with generally mid/high level clouds expected. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  10   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  10   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 011432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WEAK ECHOS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
RADAR. HOWEVER... THESE ARE COVERED WELL BY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY WELL HANDLED AS WELL. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 011432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WEAK ECHOS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
RADAR. HOWEVER... THESE ARE COVERED WELL BY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY WELL HANDLED AS WELL. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 011432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WEAK ECHOS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
RADAR. HOWEVER... THESE ARE COVERED WELL BY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY WELL HANDLED AS WELL. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 011432
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WEAK ECHOS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
RADAR. HOWEVER... THESE ARE COVERED WELL BY THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY WELL HANDLED AS WELL. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SYNOPSIS: EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING WEATHER.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MVFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011216
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
616 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE INVOLVING POPS. INCREASED THEM OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM RED LODGE TO LODGE GRASS AS RADAR SHOWS SOME DECENT
RETURNS...THOUGH MOST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    3/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011216
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
616 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE INVOLVING POPS. INCREASED THEM OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM RED LODGE TO LODGE GRASS AS RADAR SHOWS SOME DECENT
RETURNS...THOUGH MOST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    3/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011216
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
616 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE INVOLVING POPS. INCREASED THEM OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM RED LODGE TO LODGE GRASS AS RADAR SHOWS SOME DECENT
RETURNS...THOUGH MOST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    3/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011216
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
616 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE INVOLVING POPS. INCREASED THEM OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM RED LODGE TO LODGE GRASS AS RADAR SHOWS SOME DECENT
RETURNS...THOUGH MOST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    3/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 011144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Aviation Section Updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Expect a passing light rain shower over the Rocky Mountain Front and
the northern Plains today...but these showers should not impact the
main terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period...with generally mid/high level clouds expected. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 011000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
A few showers will linger overnight at KHVR and KLWT and have kept
VCSH in the TAF. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected elsewhere
tonight with scattered to broken cloud cover and some mountain
obscuration as moist northwest flow aloft persists. Breezy westerly
winds should taper at KCTB after midnight and forecast models hint
at the possibility of low clouds or fog, thus have added VCFG but
forecast confidence is low. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are
expected on Monday with the exception of an isolated mountain
shower. Overall, VFR conditions will be predominant through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 011000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Weak shortwave energy moving along the
Hi-Line early this morning is responsible for isolated shower
activity. This activity should be east of the county warning area
by 8 am. The remainder of today looks to be generally dry as the
flow aloft continues to be west to northwest. Enough instability
this afternoon over the mountains of southwest Montana to possibly
generate an isolated thunderstorm. Surface winds may become gusty
along the front slopes of the Rockies and over adjacent plains
this afternoon. A flat upper ridge develops over the area tonight
and will continue to provide dry conditions through Tuesday. By
Tuesday night, an upper trof will push into northwest Montana and
bring showers to the Rocky Mountain Front. The trof swings across
the Hi-Line Wednesday. The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, including
Glacier National Park, looks to be the epicenter for precipitation
from the trof passage. Current snow grid has the possibility of 2
inches of snow at elevations above 7000 feet in Glacier Park.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages to
start the week but will drop some 15 degrees below seasonal
averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
A few showers will linger overnight at KHVR and KLWT and have kept
VCSH in the TAF. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected elsewhere
tonight with scattered to broken cloud cover and some mountain
obscuration as moist northwest flow aloft persists. Breezy westerly
winds should taper at KCTB after midnight and forecast models hint
at the possibility of low clouds or fog, thus have added VCFG but
forecast confidence is low. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are
expected on Monday with the exception of an isolated mountain
shower. Overall, VFR conditions will be predominant through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  47  76  49 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  69  46  72  46 /  10   0   0  20
HLN  72  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  67  42  78  44 /  20   0   0  10
WEY  57  33  65  35 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  44  77  46 /  10   0   0  10
HVR  74  48  77  50 /  20   0   0  20
LWT  68  47  75  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 010949
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...The trough of low pressure will continue to move off
to the east causing northwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies
today. The airmass will be steadily drying out, but a few light
showers are anticipated to linger across northwest Montana today.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer then yesterday, but still
remain below average for this time of year. The upper level flow
will become more westerly by Tuesday continuing the warming and
drying trend.

A dynamical trough will begin to push southward out of British
Columbia Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will cause
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms primarily north of
the I-90 corridor. The storms could be capable of producing
moderate to heavy rain at times. This system will bring breezy
westerly winds to the region on Wednesday. Snow levels are still
anticipated drop to around 7500 feet by Wednesday afternoon, which
will cause some snow in the higher terrain of northwest Montana.
Temperatures will once again drop to well below normal readings on
Wednesday.

Shower activity will dwindle across northwest Montana on Wednesday
evening and overnight, as the trough emerges east of the
Continental Divide. The pattern will quickly dry through Thursday,
however temperatures will remain quite cool in the wake of the
trough. Considering that high pressure will develop over the
Northern Rockies Thursday through Saturday, morning temperatures
will be cold enough to support frost in high valley locations.
Otherwise, temperatures will steadily warm each day.

Long range ensemble forecasts suggest that the continued periodic
cool Autumn storm systems passing over the Northern Rockies will
remain the norm out to the next 10 days. Some of the ensemble
members suggest that some even colder scenarios than those of late
are possible early next week. There is little to suggest that
this persistently cool pattern will change throughout the next few
weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...The exiting trough will cause northwesterly flow over
the Northern Rockies today with a few light showers lingering
across northwest Montana. The convection is anticipated to
diminish throughout the day as a drier airmass moves into the
region. Gusty westerly winds are anticipated once again for this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Smith/Zumpfe
Aviation...Smith

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 010949
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...The trough of low pressure will continue to move off
to the east causing northwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies
today. The airmass will be steadily drying out, but a few light
showers are anticipated to linger across northwest Montana today.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer then yesterday, but still
remain below average for this time of year. The upper level flow
will become more westerly by Tuesday continuing the warming and
drying trend.

A dynamical trough will begin to push southward out of British
Columbia Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will cause
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms primarily north of
the I-90 corridor. The storms could be capable of producing
moderate to heavy rain at times. This system will bring breezy
westerly winds to the region on Wednesday. Snow levels are still
anticipated drop to around 7500 feet by Wednesday afternoon, which
will cause some snow in the higher terrain of northwest Montana.
Temperatures will once again drop to well below normal readings on
Wednesday.

Shower activity will dwindle across northwest Montana on Wednesday
evening and overnight, as the trough emerges east of the
Continental Divide. The pattern will quickly dry through Thursday,
however temperatures will remain quite cool in the wake of the
trough. Considering that high pressure will develop over the
Northern Rockies Thursday through Saturday, morning temperatures
will be cold enough to support frost in high valley locations.
Otherwise, temperatures will steadily warm each day.

Long range ensemble forecasts suggest that the continued periodic
cool Autumn storm systems passing over the Northern Rockies will
remain the norm out to the next 10 days. Some of the ensemble
members suggest that some even colder scenarios than those of late
are possible early next week. There is little to suggest that
this persistently cool pattern will change throughout the next few
weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...The exiting trough will cause northwesterly flow over
the Northern Rockies today with a few light showers lingering
across northwest Montana. The convection is anticipated to
diminish throughout the day as a drier airmass moves into the
region. Gusty westerly winds are anticipated once again for this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Smith/Zumpfe
Aviation...Smith

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 010949
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...The trough of low pressure will continue to move off
to the east causing northwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies
today. The airmass will be steadily drying out, but a few light
showers are anticipated to linger across northwest Montana today.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer then yesterday, but still
remain below average for this time of year. The upper level flow
will become more westerly by Tuesday continuing the warming and
drying trend.

A dynamical trough will begin to push southward out of British
Columbia Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will cause
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms primarily north of
the I-90 corridor. The storms could be capable of producing
moderate to heavy rain at times. This system will bring breezy
westerly winds to the region on Wednesday. Snow levels are still
anticipated drop to around 7500 feet by Wednesday afternoon, which
will cause some snow in the higher terrain of northwest Montana.
Temperatures will once again drop to well below normal readings on
Wednesday.

Shower activity will dwindle across northwest Montana on Wednesday
evening and overnight, as the trough emerges east of the
Continental Divide. The pattern will quickly dry through Thursday,
however temperatures will remain quite cool in the wake of the
trough. Considering that high pressure will develop over the
Northern Rockies Thursday through Saturday, morning temperatures
will be cold enough to support frost in high valley locations.
Otherwise, temperatures will steadily warm each day.

Long range ensemble forecasts suggest that the continued periodic
cool Autumn storm systems passing over the Northern Rockies will
remain the norm out to the next 10 days. Some of the ensemble
members suggest that some even colder scenarios than those of late
are possible early next week. There is little to suggest that
this persistently cool pattern will change throughout the next few
weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...The exiting trough will cause northwesterly flow over
the Northern Rockies today with a few light showers lingering
across northwest Montana. The convection is anticipated to
diminish throughout the day as a drier airmass moves into the
region. Gusty westerly winds are anticipated once again for this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Smith/Zumpfe
Aviation...Smith

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 010949
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...The trough of low pressure will continue to move off
to the east causing northwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies
today. The airmass will be steadily drying out, but a few light
showers are anticipated to linger across northwest Montana today.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer then yesterday, but still
remain below average for this time of year. The upper level flow
will become more westerly by Tuesday continuing the warming and
drying trend.

A dynamical trough will begin to push southward out of British
Columbia Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will cause
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms primarily north of
the I-90 corridor. The storms could be capable of producing
moderate to heavy rain at times. This system will bring breezy
westerly winds to the region on Wednesday. Snow levels are still
anticipated drop to around 7500 feet by Wednesday afternoon, which
will cause some snow in the higher terrain of northwest Montana.
Temperatures will once again drop to well below normal readings on
Wednesday.

Shower activity will dwindle across northwest Montana on Wednesday
evening and overnight, as the trough emerges east of the
Continental Divide. The pattern will quickly dry through Thursday,
however temperatures will remain quite cool in the wake of the
trough. Considering that high pressure will develop over the
Northern Rockies Thursday through Saturday, morning temperatures
will be cold enough to support frost in high valley locations.
Otherwise, temperatures will steadily warm each day.

Long range ensemble forecasts suggest that the continued periodic
cool Autumn storm systems passing over the Northern Rockies will
remain the norm out to the next 10 days. Some of the ensemble
members suggest that some even colder scenarios than those of late
are possible early next week. There is little to suggest that
this persistently cool pattern will change throughout the next few
weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...The exiting trough will cause northwesterly flow over
the Northern Rockies today with a few light showers lingering
across northwest Montana. The convection is anticipated to
diminish throughout the day as a drier airmass moves into the
region. Gusty westerly winds are anticipated once again for this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Smith/Zumpfe
Aviation...Smith

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010934
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    1/B 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010934
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    1/B 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010934
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    1/B 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010934
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    1/B 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 010919
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
319 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE NEAR SACO REMAINS
ABOVE THE 11 FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO AND GLASGOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS AT TAMPICO SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLASGOW
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 010919
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
319 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE DAY BEGINS WITH A BROAD...LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CONUS THAT
HAS BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE WEEKEND. WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF.

A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTH AND GAINS STRENGTH
EARLY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PAC-NW. THIS ACTION WILL BUILD
UP A WEAK RIDGE IN ADVANCE TO BRING A BRIEF WARMING ALOFT AND
DRYING TO NEMONT FOR TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN
BROADENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHEARING ACTION EXTENDS WEST
AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTH INTO CANADA. THERE WILL BE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SUGGEST...MOSTLY IN CANADA.
MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THUS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
CALIFORNIA MIDWEEK WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROF CUTS OFF AND LINGERS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. WELL DEVELOPED LOW DEVELOPS BELOW THE SHORTWAVE BUT FOR
NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THE SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE CALIFORNIA
LOW...MODELS DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OR WELL NORTH IN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONTANA WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE WATER LEVEL AT THE GAUGE NEAR SACO REMAINS
ABOVE THE 11 FT FLOOD STAGE...BUT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVELS AT TAMPICO AND GLASGOW CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS AT TAMPICO SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLASGOW
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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