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000
FXUS65 KGGW 210926
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
326 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS OF BUILDING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL
BRING A VERY WARM...CALM AND TRANQUIL SPRING DAY TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY.

TUESDAY...THE RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...BUT
SOMEWHAT SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST BY AN OMINOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CUTTING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN
TO DRAW IN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE DISTANT GULF OF MEXICO
REGION.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE REGION SEEMS TO BECOME
PRIMED FOR THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND DISPLACES THE
RIDGE EAST AND AWAY FROM MONTANA. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FIND A
CONSENSUS THAT THE INITIAL PUSH OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME VERSION OF A DRY SLOT
SEEMS POSSIBLE...BUT MODELS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ON THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME. FELT IT WAS BEST TO TREAT THIS
WITH A REDUCTION IN POPS WHERE THE DRY SLOT SEEMS MORE LIKELY FOR
NOW. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND CHANCE IN THE NORTH AS MODELS
HINT AS POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN EXCEPT NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A MIX WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE
WINDY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT.

LOOK FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO POINTING TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCKING TYPE
RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECASTED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTA. THE MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
THE RIDGE. GFS FOR THE MOST PART WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS
TO BRING THAT MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD
SHIFTING THE WIND AROUND TO THE EAST AFT 00Z TUE.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

IMPACTS: MINOR ISSUES THROUGH 05Z WITH GUSTY WIND TONIGHT...THEN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND FOR MONDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210922
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHEN A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.
SURFACE TROFFING ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL PULL WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP
TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM MIXING.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE +/- 3 DEGREES OF THOSE ON
SUNDAY...WITH LESS WIND.

MONDAY NIGHT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN
AREAS AS FLOW ALOFT BENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS PATTER FAVORS MAINLY DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DYNAMIC DAY AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY AND
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRUN SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS SHOVE A VERY WARM 850-700MB LAYER OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH BIAS CORRECTED MODEL
TEMPERATURES PUSHING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THINK THIS IS A
BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT KEPT LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH
POTENTIALLY RAIN COOLED HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST. CAPE VALUES TUESDAY
ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AT UNDER 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INHERENT LIFT DUE TO
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND SOME PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...LIKE THE IDEA
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS STRONGER ENERGY ARRIVES AND CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AND OVERNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME WITH BULK OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM STAYING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

WEDNESDAY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THOUGH DRIER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED INTO UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MONTANA WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FRONTAL POSITION WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BE CLOSE TO THE MONTANA DAKOTA BORDER SO HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ALSO HAVE RAISED WINDS IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AS ANALOG CASES TO THIS PATTERN HAVE HAD STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH. DO NOT HAVE WINDS QUITE THAT
STRONG BUT TRENDING THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY IT WRAPS
SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. SHOULD BE A CHILLY DAYMIXING
WILL BE WEAKER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S.

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT A COUPLE OF
TRENDS ARE CLEAR. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ON FRIDAY HELPING BRING A WINDOW OF
QUIETER WEATHER. BY SATURDAY MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA BUT MODELS VARY IN AN IMPORTANT EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS DIGS A LOW TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN BASICALLY SPLITTING THE
NEXT TROUGH. ECMWF STALLS THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ALLOWS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACTIVITY WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF ON
THIS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A SPRING SNOWSTORM. HAVE TRENDED
COOLER AND WETTER IN THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITHOUT COMMITTING TO A RETURN OF WINTER YET. BORSUM.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO RESTRICTIONS TO CEILING OR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 046/072 044/057 037/057 036/059 039/059 039/052
    0/U 12/T    64/W    23/W    22/W    23/W    43/W
LVM 066 043/066 038/053 033/059 035/061 037/058 034/053
    0/U 16/T    65/W    33/W    22/W    34/W    43/W
HDN 069 041/075 045/058 034/055 033/061 035/060 036/053
    0/U 02/T    54/T    24/W    22/W    23/W    43/W
MLS 068 044/075 050/061 037/053 032/055 034/057 037/050
    0/U 01/B    44/T    24/W    31/B    23/W    33/W
4BQ 068 043/076 051/062 034/054 032/056 033/059 036/052
    0/U 02/T    33/T    23/W    21/B    23/W    33/W
BHK 064 040/071 049/063 036/050 029/050 030/052 033/045
    0/U 00/N    32/T    23/W    31/E    33/W    44/W
SHR 066 041/073 045/058 037/054 033/061 036/062 036/056
    0/U 02/T    33/T    23/W    22/W    23/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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000
FXUS65 KMSO 210908
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
308 AM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...The upper ridge of high pressure will shift
east of the Continental Divide with a southwesterly flow
developing over the Northern Rockies. High clouds will be
increasing and thickening up today for some filtered sunshine.

Tuesday morning will be warm with strong southerly flow ahead of
an approaching cold front. The cold front arrives Tuesday
afternoon causing significant precipitation in the mountains and
valleys with snow above 7,000 feet for most of the day.

Overnight the snow levels will drop by about 4,000 feet, allowing
at least a rain snow mix by Wednesday morning in most of the
valleys. Models have trended lower with snow levels, so adjusted
them lower in the forecast. As a result, added less than half an
inch of snow in the Flathead, Mission, Bitterroot, and Missoula
valleys to the forecast. With the warm wet day before and low
temperatures near freezing, expect snow will mainly accumulate on
elevated surfaces and the grass with a lot of melting on the
roads. However, colder temperatures at slightly higher elevations
mean roads could get slick very quickly coming up out of the
valleys. Snow accumulations around six inches or less are expected
at many area passes.

Showers will continue Wednesday, however, forecast rain amounts
were lowered. Model trends have recently been pulling the low
pressure center farther north with this system. As a result,
western Montana doesn`t get much of the wrap-around moisture on
the north side of the low. Also raised winds Wednesday, especially
along the Continental Divide, due to the position of the low and
model trends. Wind gusts Wednesday afternoon will consistently be
around 35 mph in the Butte-Anaconda area. Stronger winds are
possible in the vicinity of showers. Overall Wednesday will be a
cool and blustery day with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s,
high winds, and showers.

Thursday through Sunday...A active weather pattern is still being
advertised by the medium range models through this period. While
the models agree mostly with the large scale pattern, they still
differ significantly with respect to placement and timing of
precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...As the ridge of high pressure shifts into eastern
Montana today, look for increasing high clouds from the
southwest. Overall, weather conditions will be favorable for
aviation operations today. Clouds will be thickening and bases
slowly lowering overnight tonight mainly over the Idaho Panhandle
and northwest Montana.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210319
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
919 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT. ADJUSTED LOWS DOWN FOR MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON
THIS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK ENERGY
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THESE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS AND NOT
HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADJUSTED WINDS A BIT BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE A DRY NIGHT. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MADE SEVERAL RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. CHANGES
WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO TUESDAY AND THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WITH LOW 70S MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
MID 70S TUESDAY. DID RAISE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY...AS GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE PUSHING 80S. WARM TUESDAY WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME MUCH DO TO
WARM START TO THE DAY...AND LATE TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE REGION
TO ADD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO THE MIX. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
HAMPER WARM UP SOME...INITIALLY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT QUICKER WARMUP.

SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY ON THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY CONVECTIVE. DID KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK WITH THIS SYSTEM REALLY HINGES ON DRY AIR
INTRUSION...WHICH IS WHY KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS OR LOWER IN PLACE
OUTSIDE OF AREA MOUNTAINS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

WE EXPECT COOL...WINDY AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WED AND THU
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WE DON/T EXPECT
A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS FROM 12 UTC CONTINUE SHOWING THE CLOSED 500-HPA LOW
WHICH FORMS BY WED REMAINING OVER NORTHERN MT AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
THAT WILL ENABLE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN SOUTHERN MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WHICH COULD GREATLY HINDER SHOWER COVERAGE.
WE ACTUALLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WED THROUGH THU IN MANY
LOCATIONS SO THAT THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD COME ON THU OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT IF WRAP-AROUND/STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
500-HPA LOW ENDS UP THAT FAR SOUTH /WHICH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN/.

BY FRI...SHORTWAVE RIDGING COULD CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE EXPECTS
TO AFFECT THE ROCKIES SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH IS BELOW NORMAL BECAUSE LITTLE
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG GUIDANCE WITH THOSE ITEMS...BUT IN ANY CASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SAT AND SUN. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/071 046/077 046/057 037/057 035/059 039/062 041/054
    00/U    12/T    44/W    33/W    22/W    23/W    33/W
LVM 032/071 045/072 039/053 033/059 034/061 037/061 036/055
    00/U    26/T    75/W    33/W    22/W    24/W    33/W
HDN 034/072 039/079 041/058 034/055 032/061 035/063 038/055
    00/U    12/T    34/T    24/W    22/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 035/069 042/076 045/061 037/053 031/055 034/060 039/052
    00/U    01/B    33/T    24/W    31/B    22/W    33/W
4BQ 035/070 041/079 045/062 034/054 031/056 033/062 038/054
    00/U    02/T    23/T    23/W    21/B    23/W    33/W
BHK 030/066 037/074 046/063 036/050 028/050 030/055 035/047
    00/U    00/N    32/T    23/W    31/E    23/W    34/W
SHR 032/070 041/079 043/058 037/054 032/061 036/065 038/058
    00/U    02/T    23/T    23/W    22/W    23/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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000
FXUS65 KTFX 210303
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
903 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...Weather expected to be quiet tonight and Monday as
upper level ridging builds over the Northern Rockies. Variable
high clouds will move over the region tonight and Monday morning
but cloud cover begins to increase in coverage by afternoon. Going
forecast is in very good shape so no changes are required this
evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area through the evening hours. Winds will
gradually decrease after sunset. Light winds will develop tonight
and will remain in place through much of Monday as a ridge of
high pressure moves into the area. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 7500 and 8500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

Tonight through Tuesday...Weak instability and isolated showers
are possible this afternoon in Hill and Blaine counties behind
the shortwave trough that moved across the area last night.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Monday as an
upper-level ridge builds into the area. Temperatures will continue
warming on Monday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. West-southwesterly winds will remain breezy this
afternoon, however the potential for high winds has diminished
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains so have
cancelled the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish tonight. The
ridge axis will shift east Monday night as a deepening Pacific
trough of low pressure pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As this
trough moves inland, shortwave energy coupled with an upper-level
jet will push into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday yielding
increasing Pacific moisture and instability. Have increased pops
along the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon with showers
developing and becoming widespread by Tuesday evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected with the best chance over central
and southwest Montana. MLV

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  69  45  69 /   0   0  10  70
CTB  31  66  39  64 /   0   0  10  60
HLN  37  70  44  66 /   0   0  10  70
BZN  32  71  41  69 /   0   0  20  60
WEY  30  60  36  57 /   0   0  30  70
DLN  33  69  42  62 /   0   0  20  70
HVR  31  70  41  75 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  31  66  42  70 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 210224
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
824 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OTHERWISE KEPT MOST
OF THE FORECAST STATUS QUO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   PROTON

A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEPICTED BY RADAR RETURNS ARE MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE RATHER LARGE. AS SUCH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL MAY
REACH THE GROUND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THUS...SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FIELD/SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ASSIST IN LOCALLY ENHANCING SOME OF THE WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...DID USE SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS TO
EXPAND REACH WHEN ADVERTISING THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.

AFTER SUNSET...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON BUILDING
IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE
WESTERN ZONES. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THESIS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS EASTWARD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO REFINE SOME OF
THE DETAILS. FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE UPPER TROF WINDS UP. WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH THE LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE
LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD
SHIFTING THE WIND AROUND TO THE EAST AFT 00Z TUE.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

IMPACTS: MINOR ISSUES THROUGH 05Z WITH GUSTY WIND TONIGHT...THEN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND FOR MONDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 210224
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
824 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OTHERWISE KEPT MOST
OF THE FORECAST STATUS QUO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   PROTON

A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEPICTED BY RADAR RETURNS ARE MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE RATHER LARGE. AS SUCH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL MAY
REACH THE GROUND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THUS...SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FIELD/SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ASSIST IN LOCALLY ENHANCING SOME OF THE WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...DID USE SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS TO
EXPAND REACH WHEN ADVERTISING THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.

AFTER SUNSET...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON BUILDING
IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE
WESTERN ZONES. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THESIS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS EASTWARD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO REFINE SOME OF
THE DETAILS. FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE UPPER TROF WINDS UP. WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH THE LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE
LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD
SHIFTING THE WIND AROUND TO THE EAST AFT 00Z TUE.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

IMPACTS: MINOR ISSUES THROUGH 05Z WITH GUSTY WIND TONIGHT...THEN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND FOR MONDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 210224
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
824 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OTHERWISE KEPT MOST
OF THE FORECAST STATUS QUO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   PROTON

A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEPICTED BY RADAR RETURNS ARE MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE RATHER LARGE. AS SUCH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL MAY
REACH THE GROUND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THUS...SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FIELD/SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ASSIST IN LOCALLY ENHANCING SOME OF THE WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...DID USE SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS TO
EXPAND REACH WHEN ADVERTISING THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.

AFTER SUNSET...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON BUILDING
IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE
WESTERN ZONES. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THESIS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS EASTWARD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO REFINE SOME OF
THE DETAILS. FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE UPPER TROF WINDS UP. WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH THE LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE
LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD
SHIFTING THE WIND AROUND TO THE EAST AFT 00Z TUE.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

IMPACTS: MINOR ISSUES THROUGH 05Z WITH GUSTY WIND TONIGHT...THEN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND FOR MONDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 210224
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
824 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OTHERWISE KEPT MOST
OF THE FORECAST STATUS QUO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   PROTON

A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEPICTED BY RADAR RETURNS ARE MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE RATHER LARGE. AS SUCH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL MAY
REACH THE GROUND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THUS...SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FIELD/SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ASSIST IN LOCALLY ENHANCING SOME OF THE WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...DID USE SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS TO
EXPAND REACH WHEN ADVERTISING THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.

AFTER SUNSET...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON BUILDING
IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE
WESTERN ZONES. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THESIS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS EASTWARD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO REFINE SOME OF
THE DETAILS. FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE UPPER TROF WINDS UP. WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH THE LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE
LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD
SHIFTING THE WIND AROUND TO THE EAST AFT 00Z TUE.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

IMPACTS: MINOR ISSUES THROUGH 05Z WITH GUSTY WIND TONIGHT...THEN
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND FOR MONDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 202320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Weak instability and isolated showers
are possible this afternoon in Hill and Blaine counties behind
the shortwave trough that moved across the area last night.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Monday as an
upper-level ridge builds into the area. Temperatures will continue
warming on Monday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. West-southwesterly winds will remain breezy this
afternoon, however the potential for high winds has diminished
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains so have
cancelled the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish tonight. The
ridge axis will shift east Monday night as a deepening Pacific
trough of low pressure pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As this
trough moves inland, shortwave energy coupled with an upper-level
jet will push into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday yielding
increasing Pacific moisture and instability. Have increased pops
along the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon with showers
developing and becoming widespread by Tuesday evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected with the best chance over central
and southwest Montana. MLV

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area through the evening hours. Winds will
gradually decrease after sunset. Light winds will develop tonight
and will remain in place through much of Monday as a ridge of
high pressure moves into the area. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 7500 and 8500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  69  45  69 /   0   0  10  70
CTB  31  66  39  64 /   0   0  10  60
HLN  37  70  44  66 /   0   0  10  70
BZN  32  71  41  69 /   0   0  20  60
WEY  30  60  36  57 /   0   0  30  70
DLN  33  69  42  62 /   0   0  20  70
HVR  31  70  41  75 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  31  66  42  70 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 202320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Weak instability and isolated showers
are possible this afternoon in Hill and Blaine counties behind
the shortwave trough that moved across the area last night.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Monday as an
upper-level ridge builds into the area. Temperatures will continue
warming on Monday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. West-southwesterly winds will remain breezy this
afternoon, however the potential for high winds has diminished
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains so have
cancelled the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish tonight. The
ridge axis will shift east Monday night as a deepening Pacific
trough of low pressure pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As this
trough moves inland, shortwave energy coupled with an upper-level
jet will push into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday yielding
increasing Pacific moisture and instability. Have increased pops
along the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon with showers
developing and becoming widespread by Tuesday evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected with the best chance over central
and southwest Montana. MLV

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area through the evening hours. Winds will
gradually decrease after sunset. Light winds will develop tonight
and will remain in place through much of Monday as a ridge of
high pressure moves into the area. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 7500 and 8500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  69  45  69 /   0   0  10  70
CTB  31  66  39  64 /   0   0  10  60
HLN  37  70  44  66 /   0   0  10  70
BZN  32  71  41  69 /   0   0  20  60
WEY  30  60  36  57 /   0   0  30  70
DLN  33  69  42  62 /   0   0  20  70
HVR  31  70  41  75 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  31  66  42  70 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 202320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Weak instability and isolated showers
are possible this afternoon in Hill and Blaine counties behind
the shortwave trough that moved across the area last night.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Monday as an
upper-level ridge builds into the area. Temperatures will continue
warming on Monday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. West-southwesterly winds will remain breezy this
afternoon, however the potential for high winds has diminished
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains so have
cancelled the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish tonight. The
ridge axis will shift east Monday night as a deepening Pacific
trough of low pressure pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As this
trough moves inland, shortwave energy coupled with an upper-level
jet will push into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday yielding
increasing Pacific moisture and instability. Have increased pops
along the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon with showers
developing and becoming widespread by Tuesday evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected with the best chance over central
and southwest Montana. MLV

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area through the evening hours. Winds will
gradually decrease after sunset. Light winds will develop tonight
and will remain in place through much of Monday as a ridge of
high pressure moves into the area. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 7500 and 8500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  69  45  69 /   0   0  10  70
CTB  31  66  39  64 /   0   0  10  60
HLN  37  70  44  66 /   0   0  10  70
BZN  32  71  41  69 /   0   0  20  60
WEY  30  60  36  57 /   0   0  30  70
DLN  33  69  42  62 /   0   0  20  70
HVR  31  70  41  75 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  31  66  42  70 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 202320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Weak instability and isolated showers
are possible this afternoon in Hill and Blaine counties behind
the shortwave trough that moved across the area last night.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Monday as an
upper-level ridge builds into the area. Temperatures will continue
warming on Monday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. West-southwesterly winds will remain breezy this
afternoon, however the potential for high winds has diminished
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains so have
cancelled the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish tonight. The
ridge axis will shift east Monday night as a deepening Pacific
trough of low pressure pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As this
trough moves inland, shortwave energy coupled with an upper-level
jet will push into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday yielding
increasing Pacific moisture and instability. Have increased pops
along the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon with showers
developing and becoming widespread by Tuesday evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected with the best chance over central
and southwest Montana. MLV

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area through the evening hours. Winds will
gradually decrease after sunset. Light winds will develop tonight
and will remain in place through much of Monday as a ridge of
high pressure moves into the area. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 7500 and 8500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  69  45  69 /   0   0  10  70
CTB  31  66  39  64 /   0   0  10  60
HLN  37  70  44  66 /   0   0  10  70
BZN  32  71  41  69 /   0   0  20  60
WEY  30  60  36  57 /   0   0  30  70
DLN  33  69  42  62 /   0   0  20  70
HVR  31  70  41  75 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  31  66  42  70 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202120
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MADE SEVERAL RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. CHANGES
WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO TUESDAY AND THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WITH LOW 70S MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
MID 70S TUESDAY. DID RAISE TEMPS FOR TUESDAY...AS GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE PUSHING 80S. WARM TUESDAY WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME MUCH DO TO
WARM START TO THE DAY...AND LATE TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE REGION
TO ADD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO THE MIX. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
HAMPER WARM UP SOME...INITIALLY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT QUICKER WARMUP.

SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY ON THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER POTENTIAL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY CONVECTIVE. DID KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK WITH THIS SYSTEM REALLY HINGES ON DRY AIR
INTRUSION...WHICH IS WHY KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS OR LOWER IN PLACE
OUTSIDE OF AREA MOUNTAINS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

WE EXPECT COOL...WINDY AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WED AND THU
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WE DON/T EXPECT
A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE THE GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS FROM 12 UTC CONTINUE SHOWING THE CLOSED 500-HPA LOW
WHICH FORMS BY WED REMAINING OVER NORTHERN MT AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
THAT WILL ENABLE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN SOUTHERN MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WHICH COULD GREATLY HINDER SHOWER COVERAGE.
WE ACTUALLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WED THROUGH THU IN MANY
LOCATIONS SO THAT THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD COME ON THU OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT IF WRAP-AROUND/STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
500-HPA LOW ENDS UP THAT FAR SOUTH /WHICH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN/.

BY FRI...SHORTWAVE RIDGING COULD CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE EXPECTS
TO AFFECT THE ROCKIES SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH IS BELOW NORMAL BECAUSE LITTLE
CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG GUIDANCE WITH THOSE ITEMS...BUT IN ANY CASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SAT AND SUN. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY ABOUT 02 UTC AS MIXING DIMINISHES NEAR SUNSET. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/071 046/077 046/057 037/057 035/059 039/062 041/054
    00/U    12/T    44/W    33/W    22/W    23/W    33/W
LVM 037/071 045/072 039/053 033/059 034/061 037/061 036/055
    00/U    26/T    75/W    33/W    22/W    24/W    33/W
HDN 035/072 039/079 041/058 034/055 032/061 035/063 038/055
    00/U    12/T    34/T    24/W    22/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 035/069 042/076 045/061 037/053 031/055 034/060 039/052
    00/U    01/B    33/T    24/W    31/B    22/W    33/W
4BQ 035/070 041/079 045/062 034/054 031/056 033/062 038/054
    00/U    02/T    23/T    23/W    21/B    23/W    33/W
BHK 033/066 037/074 046/063 036/050 028/050 030/055 035/047
    00/U    00/N    32/T    23/W    31/E    23/W    34/W
SHR 036/070 041/079 043/058 037/054 032/061 036/065 038/058
    00/U    02/T    23/T    23/W    22/W    23/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 202059
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
259 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Weak instability and isolated showers
are possible this afternoon in Hill and Blaine counties behind
the shortwave trough that moved across the area last night.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through Monday as an
upper-level ridge builds into the area. Temperatures will continue
warming on Monday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. West-southwesterly winds will remain breezy this
afternoon, however the potential for high winds has diminished
along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains so have
cancelled the High Wind Warning. Winds will diminish tonight. The
ridge axis will shift east Monday night as a deepening Pacific
trough of low pressure pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As this
trough moves inland, shortwave energy coupled with an upper-level
jet will push into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday yielding
increasing Pacific moisture and instability. Have increased pops
along the Continental Divide Tuesday afternoon with showers
developing and becoming widespread by Tuesday evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are also expected with the best chance over central
and southwest Montana. MLV

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area this afternoon with gusts as high as 40 knots.
Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon. Scattered
clouds can be expected over the high terrain of the Rocky Mountain
Front. Light winds and areas of high level clouds are expected
tonight and Monday morning as a ridge of high pressure moves into
the area. Langlieb

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 7500 and 8500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  69  45  69 /   0   0  10  70
CTB  31  66  39  64 /   0   0  10  60
HLN  37  70  44  66 /   0   0  10  70
BZN  32  71  41  69 /   0   0  20  60
WEY  30  60  36  57 /   0   0  30  70
DLN  33  69  42  62 /   0   0  20  70
HVR  31  70  41  75 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  31  66  42  70 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KMSO 202047
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...Another clear and seasonably cool night is forecast
for the Northern Rockies as weak high pressure allows only
variable high clouds over the region. Monday will be quite nice
with temperatures once again reaching the upper 60s to low 70s
under a partly cloudy sky and afternoon breezes. A few more
cumulus clouds are likely late in the day with showers developing
overnight.

Tuesday-Thursday...The storm system that we have been tracking for
several days now is still on track to impact the Northern Rockies
with moderate to heavy rain and snow at times for the region.  There
has been some changes in terms of timing and precip placement,
however the overall wording has not changed all that much from
previous forecast.

The ridge breakdown and progression of the trough will still
likely begin impacting central Idaho and southwestern Montana Tuesday
afternoon and evening and the atmosphere still looks favorable for
a few weak thunderstorms to develop in these areas putting down some
lightning. Heavy downpours will be the main threat with this initial
push, particularly for the Clearwater Mountains of Idaho County.
Rock and mudslides continue to be a concern for valley locations
along Highway 12. The heaviest precip is expected to be from
Tuesday evening into the overnight hours with some areas picking
up over 0.50 inches in a twelve hour period and possibly an inch
or more over a 30-36 hour period. Valleys will see all rain with
higher elevations getting 2-4 inches of snow during this time.

The main front and heaviest precip will enter western Montana by
Wednesday morning and continue through much of the day.  The
heaviest precip will be along the front where over a 0.25 inch of
rain isn`t out of the question during a short period of time.
Locations where there have been recent fire activity will need to
be closely watched for the potential of rock/mud or debris slides
due to the occasional heavy burst of rain. The biggest area of
concern will be in northwest Montana and along the Divide where
the heaviest valley rain and mountain snow will persist into
Thursday. Glacier Park (including Marias Pass) could see upwards
of 6 inches or more of snow by the time the system moves out of
the region late Thursday.

The overall picture looks like a very wet couple days for the
entire region mid week. 0.50 - 1.00 inches of rain for the
valleys, with the higher amounts in central Idaho, and 4 to 8
inches of snow for the mountains and Passes with the highest
amounts along the Continental Divide. More details to come!

Long range forecast models are in quite good agreement with their
depiction of a large, persistent trough extending from a deep Gulf
of Alaska low pressure system through the Pacific Northwest and
into the Northern Rockies from Friday into next week. This pattern
typically supports waves of energy breaking off the parent low,
spreading widespread rainfall across the entire northwestern part
of the United States (including much of Idaho and Montana).
At this time both the GFS and ECMWF support the best chance for
widespread rainfall occurring from Friday night through Saturday
evening. However this could change significantly over the next
several days considering the highly unpredictable nature of these
waves 5 to 6 days in advance. Thus have gone with better than
average chances for precipitation during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy afternoon winds will gradually subside around
sunset and remain mainly calm through Monday morning. Afternoon
winds are expected to pick up again on Monday. But overall no
significant impacts to aviation are expected through the next 24
hours.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 202033
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEPICTED BY RADAR RETURNS ARE MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ARE RATHER LARGE. AS SUCH
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH...IF ANY...RAINFALL MAY
REACH THE GROUND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. THUS...SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS FIELD/SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ASSIST IN LOCALLY ENHANCING SOME OF THE WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...DID USE SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS TO
EXPAND REACH WHEN ADVERTISING THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.

AFTER SUNSET...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON BUILDING
IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE
WESTERN ZONES. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHICH SUPPORTS THIS THESIS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS EASTWARD. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO REFINE SOME OF
THE DETAILS. FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE UPPER TROF WINDS UP. WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH THE LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS. FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE
LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL
DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201727
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1126 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

After a cold front moved across the area last night, dry, mild and
breezy conditions are expected today for most of the area. The
only exception is in the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountain
Front where a few showers are possible through midday. Made a few
tweaks to sky cover this morning, otherwise no other changes were
made. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area this afternoon with gusts as high as 40 knots.
Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon. Scattered
clouds can be expected over the high terrain of the Rocky Mountain
Front. Light winds and areas of high level clouds are expected
tonight and Monday morning as a ridge of high pressure moves into
the area. Langlieb

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201727
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1126 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

After a cold front moved across the area last night, dry, mild and
breezy conditions are expected today for most of the area. The
only exception is in the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountain
Front where a few showers are possible through midday. Made a few
tweaks to sky cover this morning, otherwise no other changes were
made. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty across the area this afternoon with gusts as high as 40 knots.
Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon. Scattered
clouds can be expected over the high terrain of the Rocky Mountain
Front. Light winds and areas of high level clouds are expected
tonight and Monday morning as a ridge of high pressure moves into
the area. Langlieb

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KGGW 201526
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
926 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RADAR ECHOES THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LEFT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF WHAT IS
OCCURRING IS NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
LARGE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SO IT IS
IN QUESTION WHAT...IF ANYTHING...WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH 4 SEPARATE
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT...TWO IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND TWO IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS TURNED MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO. EVEN NOW...THIS
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE LIFTING AND WEAKENING A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THAT ONLY INDICATED BY THE EC
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT EVEN WANT TO GIVE IT MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TODAYS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA...UP
TO 40 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PUSH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDE NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
CALMEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A CHANGE IS IN THE AIR WITH A VERY ACTIVE AND
WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING
AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 201526
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
926 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RADAR ECHOES THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LEFT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF WHAT IS
OCCURRING IS NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
LARGE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SO IT IS
IN QUESTION WHAT...IF ANYTHING...WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH 4 SEPARATE
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT...TWO IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND TWO IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS TURNED MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO. EVEN NOW...THIS
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE LIFTING AND WEAKENING A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THAT ONLY INDICATED BY THE EC
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT EVEN WANT TO GIVE IT MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TODAYS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA...UP
TO 40 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PUSH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDE NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
CALMEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A CHANGE IS IN THE AIR WITH A VERY ACTIVE AND
WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING
AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 201526
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
926 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RADAR ECHOES THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LEFT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF WHAT IS
OCCURRING IS NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
LARGE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SO IT IS
IN QUESTION WHAT...IF ANYTHING...WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH 4 SEPARATE
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT...TWO IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND TWO IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS TURNED MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO. EVEN NOW...THIS
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE LIFTING AND WEAKENING A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THAT ONLY INDICATED BY THE EC
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT EVEN WANT TO GIVE IT MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TODAYS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA...UP
TO 40 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PUSH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDE NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
CALMEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A CHANGE IS IN THE AIR WITH A VERY ACTIVE AND
WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING
AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 201526
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
926 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RADAR ECHOES THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LEFT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF WHAT IS
OCCURRING IS NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
LARGE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SO IT IS
IN QUESTION WHAT...IF ANYTHING...WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH 4 SEPARATE
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT...TWO IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND TWO IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS TURNED MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO. EVEN NOW...THIS
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE LIFTING AND WEAKENING A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THAT ONLY INDICATED BY THE EC
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT EVEN WANT TO GIVE IT MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TODAYS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA...UP
TO 40 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PUSH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDE NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
CALMEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A CHANGE IS IN THE AIR WITH A VERY ACTIVE AND
WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING
AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTIONS A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...BUT WINDS SHOULD TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING.  AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING ON
THE WINDY AND DRY SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BY MID DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS TO THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT SPREAD OVER THE AREA. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MIDWEEK WEATHER SYSTEM THOUGH
EXACT TRACK STILL MAY VARY. HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WAVE
DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY.
MODELS THEN SHOW A BREAK ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
ON SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TRACK OF INCOMING
SYSTEM.

TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AS SURFACE MIXING INCREASES AS A DEEP SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS CLOSER TO HARLOWTON/HELENA
AREAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MOISTURE AND SHOWER THREAT TO
THE WESTERN ZONES AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS SHOWING SOME ADVECTION OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT AT THIS POINT ITS INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NOT AS MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DESPITE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA.

MODELS AGREE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. TRENDED POPS LOWER POPS OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO REFLECT THIS PROCESS BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL
STILL BE UNSTABLE SO IT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...JUST MAY NOT
SEE VERY WET STORMS. SHOULD SEE 10-15 DEGREES COOLING ON WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE EVEN COOLER IF CLOUD COVER IS GREATER THAN EXPECTED.

BIGGEST QUESTION OF FORECAST IS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORKS INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA. SYSTEM IS TRENDING NORTHWARD SO WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN MONTANA AIDED BY UPSLOPE
CONTINUES TO BE LESS LIKELY SO HAVE MINIMAL CONCERNS ABOUT THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAUSING HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. THURSDAY WILL BE
EVEN COOLER AND COULD BE FAIRLY BREEZY AS STRONG MIDLEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW.

EXPECT REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND DECREASED CHANCE OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER SATURDAY WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OR
WHETHER HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THAT FRONT TODAY TOO. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 039/071 046/075 046/057 037/057 035/061 039/062
    1/N 00/U    12/T    45/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 037/071 045/072 039/053 033/059 034/064 037/062
    1/N 00/U    26/T    76/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 070 035/072 039/078 041/058 034/055 032/061 035/063
    1/N 00/U    12/T    35/T    44/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 069 035/069 042/074 045/061 037/053 031/055 034/061
    1/N 00/U    01/B    35/T    34/W    31/B    22/W
4BQ 070 035/070 041/078 045/062 034/054 031/057 033/063
    1/N 00/U    02/T    25/T    33/W    21/B    22/W
BHK 067 033/066 037/070 046/063 036/050 028/052 030/057
    1/N 00/U    00/N    35/T    34/W    31/E    22/W
SHR 068 036/070 041/078 043/058 037/054 032/061 036/066
    1/N 00/U    02/T    25/T    43/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 201424
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
824 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.UPDATE...

After a cold front moved across the area last night, dry, mild and
breezy conditions are expected today for most of the area. The
only exception is in the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountain
Front where a few showers are possible through midday. Made a few
tweaks to sky cover this morning, otherwise no other changes were
made. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few showers
over Blaine County and far northern Fergus County should move east
of those counties by 8 am mdt. Also scattered showers over the Rocky
Mountain Front should mostly end by noon.  The main weather issue
today will be gusty west to northwest winds. Have at least average
confidence in forecast winds at the taf sites. Do be aware that
there could be isolated gusts to 45 knots through noon. Winds will
gradually diminish late this afternoon through overnight. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201424
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
824 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.UPDATE...

After a cold front moved across the area last night, dry, mild and
breezy conditions are expected today for most of the area. The
only exception is in the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountain
Front where a few showers are possible through midday. Made a few
tweaks to sky cover this morning, otherwise no other changes were
made. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few showers
over Blaine County and far northern Fergus County should move east
of those counties by 8 am mdt. Also scattered showers over the Rocky
Mountain Front should mostly end by noon.  The main weather issue
today will be gusty west to northwest winds. Have at least average
confidence in forecast winds at the taf sites. Do be aware that
there could be isolated gusts to 45 knots through noon. Winds will
gradually diminish late this afternoon through overnight. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few showers
over Blaine County and far northern Fergus County should move east
of those counties by 8 am mdt. Also scattered showers over the Rocky
Mountain Front should mostly end by noon.  The main weather issue
today will be gusty west to northwest winds. Have at least average
confidence in forecast winds at the taf sites. Do be aware that
there could be isolated gusts to 45 knots through noon. Winds will
gradually diminish late this afternoon through overnight. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few showers
over Blaine County and far northern Fergus County should move east
of those counties by 8 am mdt. Also scattered showers over the Rocky
Mountain Front should mostly end by noon.  The main weather issue
today will be gusty west to northwest winds. Have at least average
confidence in forecast winds at the taf sites. Do be aware that
there could be isolated gusts to 45 knots through noon. Winds will
gradually diminish late this afternoon through overnight. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few showers
over Blaine County and far northern Fergus County should move east
of those counties by 8 am mdt. Also scattered showers over the Rocky
Mountain Front should mostly end by noon.  The main weather issue
today will be gusty west to northwest winds. Have at least average
confidence in forecast winds at the taf sites. Do be aware that
there could be isolated gusts to 45 knots through noon. Winds will
gradually diminish late this afternoon through overnight. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 201133
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few showers
over Blaine County and far northern Fergus County should move east
of those counties by 8 am mdt. Also scattered showers over the Rocky
Mountain Front should mostly end by noon.  The main weather issue
today will be gusty west to northwest winds. Have at least average
confidence in forecast winds at the taf sites. Do be aware that
there could be isolated gusts to 45 knots through noon. Winds will
gradually diminish late this afternoon through overnight. Blank

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KMSO 201013
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
413 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...Instability showers and some gusty west/northwest
winds just behind a passing cold front will be scattered across
much of western Montana through mid morning. A ridge of high
pressure will quickly develop over the region this afternoon and
persist through much of Monday. Expect much warmer than normal
conditions on Monday with high temperatures potentially reaching
the lower to mid 70s.

Late Monday through midday Tuesday...Moist southwest flow ahead
of a major low pressure system will produce an increasing chance
of precipitation across the northern Rockies. There will be enough
instability in the atmosphere to bring a slight chance for thunder
with the scattered showers in southwest Montana and central Idaho.

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...The major low pressure
system will cutoff and encompass the region. Temperatures will
lower to well below normal with widespread signifcant
precipitation expected. The following impacts are expected:

Glacier National Park region. Persistant rain/snow will wrap
around this low. This will increase the potential for rock/mudslides
and even avalanche concerns through Thursday. The Flathead valley
could even receive some light accumulation of snow on grassy
surfaces.

Potential for rock/mudslides along the highway 12 corridor in
Idaho county Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Periods of heavy Snow over the mountains and mountain passes,
especially along the continental divide Tuesday night through
Thursday.

Significant rain creating Ponding of rain on roadways and some
rises on creeks and small streams in western Montana. Including
the Bitterroot, Missoula, Flathead, Mission Valleys as well as
southwest Montana.


A weak ridge once again moves over the region on Thursday
decreasing chances for precipitation. But the models are indicating
a fairly steady stream of showers moving through the region Friday
into the weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...Breezy conditions and a few showers behind a cold
frontal passage early this morning will impact all terminals
through mid morning Sunday. High pressure will strengthen this
afternoon and persist through Monday bringing vfr conditions to
all terminals.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 201012
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
412 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0453Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 201012
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
412 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...A Pacific cold front associated with a
shortwave trough moving east along the US/Canadian border will
clear eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning.
Main impact from this feature will be gusty winds, especially over
areas along the Rocky Mtn Front and east along the MT/AB border.
Wind gusts so far have peaked around 40kts and confidence is
somewhat low that gusts in excess of 50 kts will be any more than
isolated in the High Wind Warning area, but with the wind maximum
at around 6000ft present through the morning period will keep the
highlight going. Aside from a few isolated showers along the
Continental Divide as well as the Hill/Blaine county areas early
this morning, dry conditions will prevail with broken cloud-cover
early this morning clearing from west to east behind the shortwave
trough. Upper level ridging moves east over the region tonight
through Monday for continued dry conditions with temperatures
warming from near seasonal averages today to around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages on Monday. Winds will also diminish
tonight and remain relatively light from the east to southeast
through Monday and Monday night. On Tuesday, A deep upper level
trough moves into the interior western US with an inverted trough
of low pressure at the surface strengthening over central MT
Tuesday afternoon as the initial shortwave and upper level Jet
energy associated with the upper level trough move into the region
from the SW. Expect showers to develop and become widespread
Tuesday afternoon with marginal instability allowing for the
development of a few weak thunderstorms as well late Tuesday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message during the period is
models have gotten into better agreement with the midweek system in
comparison to a day ago. The latest ECMWF run is much stronger with
the system than previous runs and is more like what the GFS has been
advertising as far as strength goes. On the other hand the GFS is
farther north with the system and is more like the ECMWF in this
regard. Models forecast a weather disturbance aloft to lift
northeast through the area Tuesday night as a surface cold front
moves east. As has been advertised this period should see the
greatest precipitation. An upper low will develop over southeast
Alberta or southwest Saskatchewan by late Wednesday though the GFS
is a little farther south. The westerly flow aloft and at the
surface on the south side of the upper low will lead to downslope
effects and have lowered chances of precipitation for some areas as
well as precipitation amounts. Then for Wednesday night the
circulation on the back side of the upper low should spread
precipitation south into north central and central Montana and have
increased the chances of precipitation for those areas.
Precipitation should then diminish as an upper ridge moves into
central Montana Thursday night. Thereafter southwest flow aloft will
develop and moisture will increase. Due to model differences with
regard to precipitation details did not go real high with the
chances of precipitation but did raise inherited values a little.
Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0453Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
rise to between 8500 and 9500 feet by Tuesday. With better agreement
amongst the models regarding precipitation details it now looks like
most lower elevations will receive from 0.4 inch to 0.7 inch
precipitation with mountains receiving from 0.7 inch to a little
over an inch with the bulk of the precipitation falling Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. The convective nature of precipitation
Tuesday evening could result in localized heavier amounts than those
listed above. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
afternoon and night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures
and lower snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher
elevations. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  57  30  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  61  37  69  44 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  63  32  70  40 /   0   0   0  20
WEY  56  30  61  35 /  10   0   0  30
DLN  62  34  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  65  31  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200959
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
359 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING ON
THE WINDY AND DRY SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRAILING THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BY MID DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS TO THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT SPREAD OVER THE AREA. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MIDWEEK WEATHER SYSTEM THOUGH
EXACT TRACK STILL MAY VARY. HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS MONTANA AND
WYOMING ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WAVE
DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY.
MODELS THEN SHOW A BREAK ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
ON SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TRACK OF INCOMING
SYSTEM.

TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AS SURFACE MIXING INCREASES AS A DEEP SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS CLOSER TO HARLOWTON/HELENA
AREAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MOISTURE AND SHOWER THREAT TO
THE WESTERN ZONES AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS SHOWING SOME ADVECTION OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT AT THIS POINT ITS INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NOT AS MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DESPITE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA.

MODELS AGREE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. TRENDED POPS LOWER POPS OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO REFLECT THIS PROCESS BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL
STILL BE UNSTABLE SO IT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY...JUST MAY NOT
SEE VERY WET STORMS. SHOULD SEE 10-15 DEGREES COOLING ON WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE EVEN COOLER IF CLOUD COVER IS GREATER THAN EXPECTED.

BIGGEST QUESTION OF FORECAST IS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORKS INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA. SYSTEM IS TRENDING NORTHWARD SO WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN MONTANA AIDED BY UPSLOPE
CONTINUES TO BE LESS LIKELY SO HAVE MINIMAL CONCERNS ABOUT THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAUSING HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. THURSDAY WILL BE
EVEN COOLER AND COULD BE FAIRLY BREEZY AS STRONG MIDLEVEL
NORTHWEST WINDS CROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW.

EXPECT REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND DECREASED CHANCE OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER SATURDAY WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OR
WEATHER HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SOME CLOUD COVER
BUT VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 039/071 046/075 046/057 037/057 035/061 039/062
    1/N 00/U    12/T    45/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 037/071 045/072 039/053 033/059 034/064 037/062
    1/N 00/U    26/T    76/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 070 035/072 039/078 041/058 034/055 032/061 035/063
    1/N 00/U    12/T    35/T    44/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 069 035/069 042/074 045/061 037/053 031/055 034/061
    1/N 00/U    01/B    35/T    34/W    31/B    22/W
4BQ 070 035/070 041/078 045/062 034/054 031/057 033/063
    1/N 00/U    02/T    25/T    33/W    21/B    22/W
BHK 067 033/066 037/070 046/063 036/050 028/052 030/057
    1/N 00/U    00/N    35/T    34/W    31/E    22/W
SHR 068 036/070 041/078 043/058 037/054 032/061 036/066
    1/N 00/U    02/T    25/T    43/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 200923
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
323 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH 4 SEPARATE
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT...TWO IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND TWO IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS TURNED MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO. EVEN NOW...THIS
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE LIFTING AND WEAKENING A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THAT ONLY INDICATED BY THE EC
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT EVEN WANT TO GIVE IT MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TODAYS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA...UP
TO 40 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PUSH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDE NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
CALMEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A CHANGE IS IN THE AIR WITH A VERY ACTIVE AND
WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING
AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA 12Z TO 15Z
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 200923
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
323 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH 4 SEPARATE
DISTURBANCES EVIDENT...TWO IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND TWO IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS HAS TURNED MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO. EVEN NOW...THIS
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE LIFTING AND WEAKENING A BIT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL QPF
OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND THAT ONLY INDICATED BY THE EC
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT EVEN WANT TO GIVE IT MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. BUT THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TODAYS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA...UP
TO 40 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PUSH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PROVIDE NORTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
CALMEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A CHANGE IS IN THE AIR WITH A VERY ACTIVE AND
WET STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
REGION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MONTANA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE INITIAL ROUND OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...TIMING
AND LOCATION OF DRY SLOTS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A MIX WITH SNOW.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT
THIS POINT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA 12Z TO 15Z
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 200453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1053 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...Have only made minor changes to sky condition in the
going forecast but these were not enough to require updates to
wording in text products. Variable cloud cover will continue to
move over the area as shortwave energy aloft moves eastward along
the US/Canadian border tonight and Sunday. Winds aloft will
increase as a surface cold front pushes through Central Montana
bringing strong wind gusts to the usual vulnerable locations.
Going High Wind Warning covers this adequately and do not
anticipate any need to expand the warning at this time. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0453Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 200453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1053 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...Have only made minor changes to sky condition in the
going forecast but these were not enough to require updates to
wording in text products. Variable cloud cover will continue to
move over the area as shortwave energy aloft moves eastward along
the US/Canadian border tonight and Sunday. Winds aloft will
increase as a surface cold front pushes through Central Montana
bringing strong wind gusts to the usual vulnerable locations.
Going High Wind Warning covers this adequately and do not
anticipate any need to expand the warning at this time. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0453Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 200323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
923 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...Have only made minor changes to sky condition in the
going forecast but these were not enough to require updates to
wording in text products. Variable cloud cover will continue to
move over the area as shortwave energy aloft moves eastward along
the US/Canadian border tonight and Sunday. Winds aloft will
increase as a surface cold front pushes through Central Montana
bringing strong wind gusts to the usual vulnerable locations.
Going High Wind Warning covers this adequately and do not
anticipate any need to expand the warning at this time. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 200323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
923 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...Have only made minor changes to sky condition in the
going forecast but these were not enough to require updates to
wording in text products. Variable cloud cover will continue to
move over the area as shortwave energy aloft moves eastward along
the US/Canadian border tonight and Sunday. Winds aloft will
increase as a surface cold front pushes through Central Montana
bringing strong wind gusts to the usual vulnerable locations.
Going High Wind Warning covers this adequately and do not
anticipate any need to expand the warning at this time. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200315 AAA
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
915 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS ADVANCING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS EVENING. MODELS SWING THIS ENERGY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
MONTANA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS WILL CERTAINLY STAY TO THE NORTH...BUT CAN SEE A CASE FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...A
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER CENTRAL ZONES AS WEAK
ENERGY STREAMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. NO PRECIPITATION WITH
THESE CLOUDS...BUT ENOUGH TO ADJUST CLOUD WORDING A BIT AND KEEP
LOWS ON PACE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

MINIMAL MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
QUIET AND WARM WEEKEND WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

RIDGING AND DRY AIR UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION.
THE BEST ENERGY...HOWEVER...REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA AND THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE DRY. SO EXPECT NO PRECIP OR
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MOVES PRETTY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO REGION AGAIN FOR
MONDAY.

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVEL ELEVATIONS. WE DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ANY FLOODING ISSUES...BUT STREAM FLOWS AND RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE ON THE RISE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUING TO COME TOGETHER IN SHOWING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WITHOUT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT THAT COULD HAVE HAD HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR REGION.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH THERMAL LOW
IN SE MT UNDER AMPLIFIED SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE TWEAKED UP TEMPS A
BIT MORE TO SHOW HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 70S...QUITE LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY YET OF 2014...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS COULD
APPROACH 80F WITH ENOUGH MIXING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TONGUE OF
700MB TEMPS TO +8C INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. IN ADDITION...COMBINATION
OF MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SE...HEIGHT FALLS AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZING WILL RESULT IN A FAIR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR STORMS TO GET TOO STRONG...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE THE MOST
INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WE HAVE SEEN YET THIS SPRING.

GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR WEST ALONG
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SW. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN OUR WEST BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
FRONT...SO EXPECT RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE BEARTOOTH
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FOCUS OF PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN SHOWING A
TRANSITION TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TROF LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS RATHER THAN A LONG DURATION PCPN EVENT.

NEXT TREND THAT EXISTS AMONG ALL MODELS TODAY IS FOR THE MID
LEVEL LOW TO SHIFT TO OUR NE INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN AND COOLER AIR TO SLIDE INTO OUR EAST
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD DRIER
SOLUTIONS AND A WEAKER TROWAL TODAY. HAVE BEGUN TO SCALE BACK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
KEEPING HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN OUR EAST AND OVER THE MTNS WITH
DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED FOR OUR WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN FACT...
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
WIND...IE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY STRONG W-NW WINDS THESE DAYS
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WIND SPEEDS
UP ON THESE DAYS. FOR THE MTNS...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW MELT IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ONCE WE GET PAST THE MILD TUESDAY.

OBVIOUSLY MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS EVEN
LOWER. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST MORE PACIFIC ENERGY OF
SOME SORT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH BROADBRUSHED NEAR
CLIMO POPS FOR THESE DAYS. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP A POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY IN NW CANADA...AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY KEEP OUR WEATHER
PATTERN ACTIVE WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE
PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AFTER A VERY MILD TUESDAY WE WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COOL AS
WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EXPECT SOME MODERATION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ON THESE DAYS. JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS AT KLVM TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM THE S-SW TO W-NW...AND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. JKL/TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/067 039/069 044/074 046/057 037/057 035/060 039/062
    01/N    00/U    12/T    45/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 039/063 038/070 041/072 039/053 033/059 034/063 037/062
    11/U    00/B    26/T    76/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 038/069 035/070 039/077 041/058 034/055 032/060 035/063
    01/U    00/U    12/T    35/T    44/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 038/068 035/067 040/073 045/061 037/053 031/054 034/061
    01/N    00/U    01/B    35/T    34/W    31/B    22/W
4BQ 039/070 035/069 042/077 045/062 034/054 031/056 033/063
    01/N    00/U    02/T    26/T    44/W    31/B    22/W
BHK 036/067 034/065 039/069 046/063 036/050 028/051 030/057
    01/N    00/U    00/N    35/T    34/W    31/E    22/W
SHR 038/067 035/069 039/077 043/058 037/054 032/060 036/066
    01/U    00/U    02/T    26/T    43/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200312
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
912 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS ADVANCING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS EVENING. MODELS SWING THIS ENERGY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
MONTANA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS WILL CERTAINLY STAY TO THE NORTH...BUT CAN SEE A CASE FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...A
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER CENTRAL ZONES AS WEAK
ENERGY STREAMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. NO PRECIPITATION WITH
THESE CLOUDS...BUT ENOUGH TO ADJUST CLOUD WORDING A BIT AND KEEP
LOWS ON PACE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

MINIMAL MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
QUIET AND WARM WEEKEND WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

RIDGING AND DRY AIR UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION.
THE BEST ENERGY...HOWEVER...REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA AND THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE DRY. SO EXPECT NO PRECIP OR
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MOVES PRETTY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO REGION AGAIN FOR
MONDAY.

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVEL ELEVATIONS. WE DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ANY FLOODING ISSUES...BUT STREAM FLOWS AND RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE ON THE RISE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUING TO COME TOGETHER IN SHOWING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WITHOUT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT THAT COULD HAVE HAD HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR REGION.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH THERMAL LOW
IN SE MT UNDER AMPLIFIED SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE TWEAKED UP TEMPS A
BIT MORE TO SHOW HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 70S...QUITE LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY YET OF 2014...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS COULD
APPROACH 80F WITH ENOUGH MIXING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TONGUE OF
700MB TEMPS TO +8C INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. IN ADDITION...COMBINATION
OF MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SE...HEIGHT FALLS AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZING WILL RESULT IN A FAIR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR STORMS TO GET TOO STRONG...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE THE MOST
INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WE HAVE SEEN YET THIS SPRING.

GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR WEST ALONG
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SW. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN OUR WEST BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
FRONT...SO EXPECT RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE BEARTOOTH
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FOCUS OF PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN SHOWING A
TRANSITION TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TROF LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS RATHER THAN A LONG DURATION PCPN EVENT.

NEXT TREND THAT EXISTS AMONG ALL MODELS TODAY IS FOR THE MID
LEVEL LOW TO SHIFT TO OUR NE INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN AND COOLER AIR TO SLIDE INTO OUR EAST
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD DRIER
SOLUTIONS AND A WEAKER TROWAL TODAY. HAVE BEGUN TO SCALE BACK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
KEEPING HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN OUR EAST AND OVER THE MTNS WITH
DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED FOR OUR WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN FACT...
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
WIND...IE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY STRONG W-NW WINDS THESE DAYS
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WIND SPEEDS
UP ON THESE DAYS. FOR THE MTNS...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW MELT IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ONCE WE GET PAST THE MILD TUESDAY.

OBVIOUSLY MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS EVEN
LOWER. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST MORE PACIFIC ENERGY OF
SOME SORT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH BROADBRUSHED NEAR
CLIMO POPS FOR THESE DAYS. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP A POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY IN NW CANADA...AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY KEEP OUR WEATHER
PATTERN ACTIVE WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE
PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AFTER A VERY MILD TUESDAY WE WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COOL AS
WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EXPECT SOME MODERATION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ON THESE DAYS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS AT KLVM THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM THE
S-SW TO W-NW...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/067 039/069 044/074 046/057 037/057 035/060 039/062
    01/N    00/U    12/T    45/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 039/063 038/070 041/072 039/053 033/059 034/063 037/062
    11/U    00/B    26/T    76/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 038/069 035/070 039/077 041/058 034/055 032/060 035/063
    01/U    00/U    12/T    35/T    44/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 038/068 035/067 040/073 045/061 037/053 031/054 034/061
    01/N    00/U    01/B    35/T    34/W    31/B    22/W
4BQ 039/070 035/069 042/077 045/062 034/054 031/056 033/063
    01/N    00/U    02/T    26/T    44/W    31/B    22/W
BHK 036/067 034/065 039/069 046/063 036/050 028/051 030/057
    01/N    00/U    00/N    35/T    34/W    31/E    22/W
SHR 038/067 035/069 039/077 043/058 037/054 032/060 036/066
    01/U    00/U    02/T    26/T    43/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 200252 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT MERELY TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO MORE
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST NOW AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT DO EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT COMBINING WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE TO MAYBE
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THIS POTENTIAL RESIDES MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL
TAKE THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WEST.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OUT.
SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BE THE
THEME FOR MONDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT
STACKED LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK. SOMEWHAT
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING WITH TREND TOWARD A TRACK ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE LOWS MERGE TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH POTENTIAL DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WRAP AROUND FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY EAST TO SE
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM BEING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP THAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE
VERTICAL STACKING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HAS THE FORECAST IN A
DRY SLOT MOST OF THE TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES.

THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. A COOL
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 200252 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
852 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT MERELY TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO MORE
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST NOW AND EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT DO EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT COMBINING WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE TO MAYBE
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THIS POTENTIAL RESIDES MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL
TAKE THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WEST.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OUT.
SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BE THE
THEME FOR MONDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT
STACKED LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK. SOMEWHAT
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING WITH TREND TOWARD A TRACK ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE LOWS MERGE TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH POTENTIAL DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WRAP AROUND FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY EAST TO SE
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM BEING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP THAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE
VERTICAL STACKING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HAS THE FORECAST IN A
DRY SLOT MOST OF THE TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES.

THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. A COOL
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 192330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Sunday
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 192330
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all taf sites.
Winds will increase through the taf period as a weak cold front
pushes through the area. Gusts will generally range into the 30-40
kts range, with some gusts approaching 50kts at KCTB. Suk

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Sunday
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192114
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

MINIMAL MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
QUIET AND WARM WEEKEND WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

RIDGING AND DRY AIR UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION.
THE BEST ENERGY...HOWEVER...REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA AND THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO APPEAR QUITE DRY. SO EXPECT NO PRECIP OR
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MOVES PRETTY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO REGION AGAIN FOR
MONDAY.

EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVEL ELEVATIONS. WE DO NOT EXPECT THERE
TO BE ANY FLOODING ISSUES...BUT STREAM FLOWS AND RIVER LEVELS WILL
BE ON THE RISE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUING TO COME TOGETHER IN SHOWING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WITHOUT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EVENT THAT COULD HAVE HAD HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR REGION.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH THERMAL LOW
IN SE MT UNDER AMPLIFIED SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE TWEAKED UP TEMPS A
BIT MORE TO SHOW HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 70S...QUITE LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY YET OF 2014...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS COULD
APPROACH 80F WITH ENOUGH MIXING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TONGUE OF
700MB TEMPS TO +8C INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. IN ADDITION...COMBINATION
OF MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SE...HEIGHT FALLS AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZING WILL RESULT IN A FAIR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR STORMS TO GET TOO STRONG...BUT IT DOES LOOK TO BE THE MOST
INTERESTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WE HAVE SEEN YET THIS SPRING.

GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR WEST ALONG
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SW. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY IN OUR WEST BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
FRONT...SO EXPECT RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE BEARTOOTH
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FOCUS OF PCPN WILL
SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN SHOWING A
TRANSITION TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IN OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TROF LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS RATHER THAN A LONG DURATION PCPN EVENT.

NEXT TREND THAT EXISTS AMONG ALL MODELS TODAY IS FOR THE MID
LEVEL LOW TO SHIFT TO OUR NE INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN AND COOLER AIR TO SLIDE INTO OUR EAST
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AN OVERALL TREND TOWARD DRIER
SOLUTIONS AND A WEAKER TROWAL TODAY. HAVE BEGUN TO SCALE BACK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
KEEPING HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN OUR EAST AND OVER THE MTNS WITH
DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED FOR OUR WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN FACT...
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
WIND...IE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY STRONG W-NW WINDS THESE DAYS
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK MIXING TIMES. HAVE ALSO TRENDED WIND SPEEDS
UP ON THESE DAYS. FOR THE MTNS...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW MELT IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ONCE WE GET PAST THE MILD TUESDAY.

OBVIOUSLY MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS EVEN
LOWER. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST MORE PACIFIC ENERGY OF
SOME SORT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP WITH BROADBRUSHED NEAR
CLIMO POPS FOR THESE DAYS. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP A POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY IN NW CANADA...AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY KEEP OUR WEATHER
PATTERN ACTIVE WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPECTED FOR THE
PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AFTER A VERY MILD TUESDAY WE WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COOL AS
WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EXPECT SOME MODERATION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ON THESE DAYS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS AT KLVM THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM THE
S-SW TO W-NW...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/067 039/069 044/074 046/057 037/057 035/060 039/062
    01/N    00/U    12/T    45/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 039/063 038/070 041/072 039/053 033/059 034/063 037/062
    11/U    00/B    26/T    76/W    33/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 038/069 035/070 039/077 041/058 034/055 032/060 035/063
    01/U    00/U    12/T    35/T    44/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 038/068 035/067 040/073 045/061 037/053 031/054 034/061
    01/N    00/U    01/B    35/T    34/W    31/B    22/W
4BQ 039/070 035/069 042/077 045/062 034/054 031/056 033/063
    01/N    00/U    02/T    26/T    44/W    31/B    22/W
BHK 036/067 034/065 039/069 046/063 036/050 028/051 030/057
    01/N    00/U    00/N    35/T    34/W    31/E    22/W
SHR 038/067 035/069 039/077 043/058 037/054 032/060 036/066
    01/U    00/U    02/T    26/T    43/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 192054
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
254 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
VFR conditions will continue across the region through mid-day
Sunday. A cold front will push across the area overnight...between
06Z and 10Z sunday morning. As the front moves through, ceilings
will drop to around 8000 feet, and winds will become strong and
gusty for a period. Gusts to will be 30-40 kts, with some gusts near
50kts around KCTB. Precipitation and any lower level cloud-cover
should remain along and west of the Continental Divide. db

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Sunday
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 192054
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
254 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...Dry and breezy conditions today will be
followed by increasing clouds and an isolated mountain shower
tonight as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure moves across
the area. Though moisture is very limited with this disturbance, a
tightening pressure gradient will yield increasing winds along
the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front as well as eastern Glacier, Toole and Liberty
counties will have the strongest winds with wind gusts 60 to 65
mph beginning late tonight into Sunday afternoon. Have issued a
High Wind Warning for these areas beginning at 9pm this evening
through 6pm Sunday. The strongest period of winds will be Sunday
morning with a frontal passage. Breezy westerly winds are also
expected across the remainder of north-central Montana though high
winds greater than 57 mph are not anticipated. Winds will be
lighter across southwest Montana. No precipitation is expected in
the plains or valleys with this disturbance and only a slight
chance of precipitation is possible in the mountains. An upper-
level ridge of high pressure will build into the Treasure State
Sunday night and Monday with decreasing winds, dry conditions and
above average temperatures expected. This ridge will not last for
very long as a stronger storm system begins to move into the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. MLV

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough
moves onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into
the interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday
night with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to
the region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level
jet energy associated with the trough approach the Northern
Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at
the surface and cold front will shift east across the forecast
area Tuesday night in conjunction with good mid-upper level
forcing associated with the trough, bringing widespread
precipitation to most of the forecast area. Enough warming and
destabilization occurs Tuesday afternoon ahead of the trough for a
chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Models
then diverge with the evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS
model continuing to depict a closed/stacked system that slowly
drifts from eastern MT into the Dakotas, resulting in continued
wrap around precipitation and northerly/moist upslope flow through
at least Thursday morning, while the ECMWF model moves the system
through much quicker with drying and weak ridging moving over the
region late Wednesday through Thursday. With a downstream upper
level ridge over the central US/Canada depicted by both models, am
leaning toward a solution slower than the ECMWF but not as
wet/prolonged as the GFS and have maintained higher pops through
Wednesday evening with gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday.
Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough moves over the region with snow levels lowering to
around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday, then as low as around 4000 ft
Wednesday night. By Friday, models come back into agreement, at
least at the large scale, with weak upper level ridging shifting
east across the region before the next deep trough in the eastern
Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west coast next weekend.
Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
VFR conditions will continue across the region through mid-day
Sunday. A cold front will push across the area overnight...between
06Z and 10Z sunday morning. As the front moves through, ceilings
will drop to around 8000 feet, and winds will become strong and
gusty for a period. Gusts to will be 30-40 kts, with some gusts near
50kts around KCTB. Precipitation and any lower level cloud-cover
should remain along and west of the Continental Divide. db

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  59  34  68 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  37  57  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  39  61  37  70 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  62  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  33  55  30  60 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  35  61  34  70 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  41  65  31  70 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  38  58  32  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Sunday
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KGGW 192037
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
237 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT DO
EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS. PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT COMBINING WITH
A LITTLE MOISTURE TO MAYBE PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THIS POTENTIAL
RESIDES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WEST.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OUT.
SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BE THE
THEME FOR MONDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT
STACKED LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK. SOMEWHAT
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING WITH TREND TOWARD A TRACK ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE LOWS MERGE TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH POTENTIAL DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WRAP AROUND FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY EAST TO SE
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM BEING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP THAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE
VERTICAL STACKING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HAS THE FORECAST IN A
DRY SLOT MOST OF THE TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES.

THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 192037
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
237 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT DO
EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS. PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT COMBINING WITH
A LITTLE MOISTURE TO MAYBE PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THIS POTENTIAL
RESIDES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE WEST.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO ONCE AGAIN CLEAR OUT.
SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BE THE
THEME FOR MONDAY. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT
STACKED LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK. SOMEWHAT
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING WITH TREND TOWARD A TRACK ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE LOWS MERGE TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH POTENTIAL DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WRAP AROUND FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY EAST TO SE
WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A MIX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM BEING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND
PRECIP THAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE
VERTICAL STACKING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HAS THE FORECAST IN A
DRY SLOT MOST OF THE TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES.

THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 192031
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
231 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A weak disturbance is still anticipated to swing
through the Northern Rockies tonight into Sunday morning. This
feature will bring scattered showers to the region, but impacts
will be fairly minimal. A brief ridge builds back over the area by
Sunday evening which will last into Monday causing a period of
warming and drying.

Tuesday-Thursday...The warm weather on Monday will come to an end as
a modestly strong surface low pressure system embedded in a broad
trough swings through the Northern Rockies starting Tuesday
afternoon. The relatively warmer air-mass ahead of the initial
push of energy and moisture will have the potential to produce a
few thunderstorms across central Idaho and southwestern Montana.

One of the main impacted regions will be central Idaho.  Highway 12
in Idaho county could get a lot of rain in a very short period of
time with these showers and thunderstorms subsequently producing a
threat for rock and/or mudslides. Travelers and other personnel
should be extra vigilant Tuesday afternoon into the early morning
hours on Wednesday for the possibility of these hazards.

This system will quickly move to the northeast through western
Montana producing occasionally heavy rain in the valleys and a few
lightning strikes.  The rain could produce ponding on roadways and
create a slight rises to the smaller creeks and streams.  Some snow
could fall as low as the valley floor as the center moves over,
however snow isn`t anticipated to be much of an impact given the
presence of warm subsurface temperatures. However mountains and
mountain passes, especially along the Continental Divide, could see
periods of heavy snow from Wednesday morning into Thursday.

Models continue to indicate that the surface low pressure will cut
off from the main flow and sit just east of the continental divide
wrapping a lot of moisture into the Glacier Park region (including
Marias Pass). These locations are expected to be impacted the
greatest during this event due to the prolonged periods of rain
and snow. Snow could spread as far west as to Kalispell creating
slick conditions from Wednesday afternoon through the day Thursday.
Due to the heavy rain and snow rock and/or mudslides, as well as
avalanches could become an issue.

A weak ridge once again moves over the region on Thursday
decreasing chances for precipitation. But the models are indicating
a fairly steady stream of showers moving through the region Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak disturbance will move through the region
tonight causing a steady lowering of clouds and scattered showers.
These showers will obscure mountains and passes at times. The
shower activity is anticipated to diminish by late Sunday morning
into the afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 191726 AAA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

update aviation section...
.UPDATE...
The forecast is on track for today with southwest winds
across area and highs reaching the 60s for the lower elevations.
Cooler air and clouds should push out of northern Hill and Blaine
counties this afternoon but have increased cloud cover there for
the remainder of the morning. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
VFR conditions will continue across the region through mid-day
Sunday. A cold front will push across the area overnight...between
06Z and 10Z sunday morning. As the front moves through, ceilings
will drop to around 8000 feet, and winds will become strong and
gusty for a period. Gusts to will be 30-40 kts, with some gusts near
50kts around KCTB. Precipitation and any lower level cloud-cover
should remain along and west of the Continental Divide. db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/
Today through Monday...An upper ridge will move into western Montana
this morning and to central Montana this afternoon. This should keep
the forecast area dry and skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will
be much lighter than those of Friday. The next upper air disturbance
will move into western Montana later tonight and then into eastern
Montana Sunday afternoon. The associated cold front is expected to
reach Cut Bank and Drummond around midnight and then should be east
of a Lewistown to Bozeman line by late tonight. Behind the cold
front gusty winds will develop. With the quick-moving cold front and
winds aloft becoming moderately strong confidence in high winds over
the Rocky Mountain Front is moderate so have issued a high wind
watch which will start this evening and last into Sunday morning.
Farther east confidence in high winds is low so did not issue a high
wind watch. Models are in agreement in not forecasting much moisture
with the disturbance/cold front and expect no more than a few
showers east of the Rocky Mountain Front. After the disturbance
expect generally dry conditions which will be aided by the next
upper ridge which will move over western and central Montana Sunday
night. On Monday southwest flow aloft will develop and expect an
increase in high level moisture. However low levels will be quite
dry and even though afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side
expect little if any instability. Due to this and also models
forecasting little if any lift..have dropped the mention of
precipitation for Monday. Blank

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough moves
onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into the
interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday night
with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to the
region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level jet
energy associated with the trough approach the Northern Rockies late
Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at the surface
and cold front will shift east across the forecast area Tuesday
night in conjunction with good mid-upper level forcing associated
with the trough, bringing widespread precipitation to most of the
forecast area. Enough warming and destabilization occurs Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the trough for a chance of thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over central and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Models then diverge with the
evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS model continuing to
depict a closed/stacked system that slowly drifts from eastern MT
into the Dakotas, resulting in continued wrap around precipitation
and northerly/moist upslope flow through at least Thursday morning,
while the ECMWF model moves the system through much quicker with
drying and weak ridging moving over the region late Wednesday
through Thursday. With a downstream upper level ridge over the
central US/Canada depicted by both models, am leaning toward a
solution slower than the ECMWF but not as wet/prolonged as the GFS
and have maintained higher pops through Wednesday evening with
gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday. Cooler temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough moves over the
region with snow levels lowering to around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday,
then as low as around 4000 ft Wednesday night. By Friday, models
come back into agreement, at least at the large scale, with weak
upper level ridging shifting east across the region before the next
deep trough in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west
coast next weekend. Hoenisch

HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  41  59  35 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  61  37  57  30 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  67  39  61  37 /   0  10  10   0
BZN  67  33  62  32 /   0  20  10   0
WEY  55  33  55  29 /   0  20  10   0
DLN  66  34  61  34 /   0  10  10   0
HVR  64  38  65  32 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  62  36  57  32 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Sunday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$


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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 191726 AAA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

update aviation section...
.UPDATE...
The forecast is on track for today with southwest winds
across area and highs reaching the 60s for the lower elevations.
Cooler air and clouds should push out of northern Hill and Blaine
counties this afternoon but have increased cloud cover there for
the remainder of the morning. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
VFR conditions will continue across the region through mid-day
Sunday. A cold front will push across the area overnight...between
06Z and 10Z sunday morning. As the front moves through, ceilings
will drop to around 8000 feet, and winds will become strong and
gusty for a period. Gusts to will be 30-40 kts, with some gusts near
50kts around KCTB. Precipitation and any lower level cloud-cover
should remain along and west of the Continental Divide. db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/
Today through Monday...An upper ridge will move into western Montana
this morning and to central Montana this afternoon. This should keep
the forecast area dry and skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will
be much lighter than those of Friday. The next upper air disturbance
will move into western Montana later tonight and then into eastern
Montana Sunday afternoon. The associated cold front is expected to
reach Cut Bank and Drummond around midnight and then should be east
of a Lewistown to Bozeman line by late tonight. Behind the cold
front gusty winds will develop. With the quick-moving cold front and
winds aloft becoming moderately strong confidence in high winds over
the Rocky Mountain Front is moderate so have issued a high wind
watch which will start this evening and last into Sunday morning.
Farther east confidence in high winds is low so did not issue a high
wind watch. Models are in agreement in not forecasting much moisture
with the disturbance/cold front and expect no more than a few
showers east of the Rocky Mountain Front. After the disturbance
expect generally dry conditions which will be aided by the next
upper ridge which will move over western and central Montana Sunday
night. On Monday southwest flow aloft will develop and expect an
increase in high level moisture. However low levels will be quite
dry and even though afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side
expect little if any instability. Due to this and also models
forecasting little if any lift..have dropped the mention of
precipitation for Monday. Blank

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough moves
onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into the
interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday night
with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to the
region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level jet
energy associated with the trough approach the Northern Rockies late
Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at the surface
and cold front will shift east across the forecast area Tuesday
night in conjunction with good mid-upper level forcing associated
with the trough, bringing widespread precipitation to most of the
forecast area. Enough warming and destabilization occurs Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the trough for a chance of thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over central and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Models then diverge with the
evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS model continuing to
depict a closed/stacked system that slowly drifts from eastern MT
into the Dakotas, resulting in continued wrap around precipitation
and northerly/moist upslope flow through at least Thursday morning,
while the ECMWF model moves the system through much quicker with
drying and weak ridging moving over the region late Wednesday
through Thursday. With a downstream upper level ridge over the
central US/Canada depicted by both models, am leaning toward a
solution slower than the ECMWF but not as wet/prolonged as the GFS
and have maintained higher pops through Wednesday evening with
gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday. Cooler temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough moves over the
region with snow levels lowering to around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday,
then as low as around 4000 ft Wednesday night. By Friday, models
come back into agreement, at least at the large scale, with weak
upper level ridging shifting east across the region before the next
deep trough in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west
coast next weekend. Hoenisch

HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  41  59  35 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  61  37  57  30 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  67  39  61  37 /   0  10  10   0
BZN  67  33  62  32 /   0  20  10   0
WEY  55  33  55  29 /   0  20  10   0
DLN  66  34  61  34 /   0  10  10   0
HVR  64  38  65  32 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  62  36  57  32 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Sunday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 191540
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
940 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.UPDATE...
The forecast is on track for today with southwest winds
across area and highs reaching the 60s for the lower elevations.
Cooler air and clouds should push out of northern Hill and Blaine
counties this afternoon but have increased cloud cover there for
the remainder of the morning. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will prevail across north central and southwest MT
through this evening under clear to partly cloudy skies with breezy
southwest winds developing this afternoon. A cold front associated
with an upper level weather disturbance moving east along the
Canadian border tonight will move quickly across the region between
06z and 10z Sunday morning. Main impact from the front will be an
abrupt increase in west winds with gusts 30-40 kts. A brief period
of broken mid level cloud cover is likely around the time of frontal
passage late tonight, however precipitation and any lower level
cloud-cover will be confined to areas along and west of the
Continental Divide. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/
Today through Monday...An upper ridge will move into western Montana
this morning and to central Montana this afternoon. This should keep
the forecast area dry and skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will
be much lighter than those of Friday. The next upper air disturbance
will move into western Montana later tonight and then into eastern
Montana Sunday afternoon. The associated cold front is expected to
reach Cut Bank and Drummond around midnight and then should be east
of a Lewistown to Bozeman line by late tonight. Behind the cold
front gusty winds will develop. With the quick-moving cold front and
winds aloft becoming moderately strong confidence in high winds over
the Rocky Mountain Front is moderate so have issued a high wind
watch which will start this evening and last into Sunday morning.
Farther east confidence in high winds is low so did not issue a high
wind watch. Models are in agreement in not forecasting much moisture
with the disturbance/cold front and expect no more than a few
showers east of the Rocky Mountain Front. After the disturbance
expect generally dry conditions which will be aided by the next
upper ridge which will move over western and central Montana Sunday
night. On Monday southwest flow aloft will develop and expect an
increase in high level moisture. However low levels will be quite
dry and even though afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side
expect little if any instability. Due to this and also models
forecasting little if any lift..have dropped the mention of
precipitation for Monday. Blank

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough moves
onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into the
interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday night
with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to the
region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level jet
energy associated with the trough approach the Northern Rockies late
Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at the surface
and cold front will shift east across the forecast area Tuesday
night in conjunction with good mid-upper level forcing associated
with the trough, bringing widespread precipitation to most of the
forecast area. Enough warming and destabilization occurs Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the trough for a chance of thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over central and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Models then diverge with the
evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS model continuing to
depict a closed/stacked system that slowly drifts from eastern MT
into the Dakotas, resulting in continued wrap around precipitation
and northerly/moist upslope flow through at least Thursday morning,
while the ECMWF model moves the system through much quicker with
drying and weak ridging moving over the region late Wednesday
through Thursday. With a downstream upper level ridge over the
central US/Canada depicted by both models, am leaning toward a
solution slower than the ECMWF but not as wet/prolonged as the GFS
and have maintained higher pops through Wednesday evening with
gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday. Cooler temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough moves over the
region with snow levels lowering to around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday,
then as low as around 4000 ft Wednesday night. By Friday, models
come back into agreement, at least at the large scale, with weak
upper level ridging shifting east across the region before the next
deep trough in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west
coast next weekend. Hoenisch

HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  41  59  35 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  61  37  57  30 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  67  39  61  37 /   0  10  10   0
BZN  67  33  62  32 /   0  20  10   0
WEY  55  33  55  29 /   0  20  10   0
DLN  66  34  61  34 /   0  10  10   0
HVR  64  38  65  32 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  62  36  57  32 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Sunday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$


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www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 191540
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
940 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.UPDATE...
The forecast is on track for today with southwest winds
across area and highs reaching the 60s for the lower elevations.
Cooler air and clouds should push out of northern Hill and Blaine
counties this afternoon but have increased cloud cover there for
the remainder of the morning. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will prevail across north central and southwest MT
through this evening under clear to partly cloudy skies with breezy
southwest winds developing this afternoon. A cold front associated
with an upper level weather disturbance moving east along the
Canadian border tonight will move quickly across the region between
06z and 10z Sunday morning. Main impact from the front will be an
abrupt increase in west winds with gusts 30-40 kts. A brief period
of broken mid level cloud cover is likely around the time of frontal
passage late tonight, however precipitation and any lower level
cloud-cover will be confined to areas along and west of the
Continental Divide. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014/
Today through Monday...An upper ridge will move into western Montana
this morning and to central Montana this afternoon. This should keep
the forecast area dry and skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will
be much lighter than those of Friday. The next upper air disturbance
will move into western Montana later tonight and then into eastern
Montana Sunday afternoon. The associated cold front is expected to
reach Cut Bank and Drummond around midnight and then should be east
of a Lewistown to Bozeman line by late tonight. Behind the cold
front gusty winds will develop. With the quick-moving cold front and
winds aloft becoming moderately strong confidence in high winds over
the Rocky Mountain Front is moderate so have issued a high wind
watch which will start this evening and last into Sunday morning.
Farther east confidence in high winds is low so did not issue a high
wind watch. Models are in agreement in not forecasting much moisture
with the disturbance/cold front and expect no more than a few
showers east of the Rocky Mountain Front. After the disturbance
expect generally dry conditions which will be aided by the next
upper ridge which will move over western and central Montana Sunday
night. On Monday southwest flow aloft will develop and expect an
increase in high level moisture. However low levels will be quite
dry and even though afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side
expect little if any instability. Due to this and also models
forecasting little if any lift..have dropped the mention of
precipitation for Monday. Blank

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough moves
onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into the
interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday night
with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to the
region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level jet
energy associated with the trough approach the Northern Rockies late
Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at the surface
and cold front will shift east across the forecast area Tuesday
night in conjunction with good mid-upper level forcing associated
with the trough, bringing widespread precipitation to most of the
forecast area. Enough warming and destabilization occurs Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the trough for a chance of thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over central and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Models then diverge with the
evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS model continuing to
depict a closed/stacked system that slowly drifts from eastern MT
into the Dakotas, resulting in continued wrap around precipitation
and northerly/moist upslope flow through at least Thursday morning,
while the ECMWF model moves the system through much quicker with
drying and weak ridging moving over the region late Wednesday
through Thursday. With a downstream upper level ridge over the
central US/Canada depicted by both models, am leaning toward a
solution slower than the ECMWF but not as wet/prolonged as the GFS
and have maintained higher pops through Wednesday evening with
gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday. Cooler temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough moves over the
region with snow levels lowering to around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday,
then as low as around 4000 ft Wednesday night. By Friday, models
come back into agreement, at least at the large scale, with weak
upper level ridging shifting east across the region before the next
deep trough in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west
coast next weekend. Hoenisch

HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  41  59  35 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  61  37  57  30 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  67  39  61  37 /   0  10  10   0
BZN  67  33  62  32 /   0  20  10   0
WEY  55  33  55  29 /   0  20  10   0
DLN  66  34  61  34 /   0  10  10   0
HVR  64  38  65  32 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  62  36  57  32 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Sunday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KGGW 191528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY
PUSHING AWAY. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...A 500MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT BY
MID AFTERNOON NEARLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA SHOULD BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
TO BECOME CURRENT WITH OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST TRENDS. ALSO
DECIDED TO LOWER HIGHS VERY MODESTLY IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
PERSISTING CLOUD COVER. THE WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED AS WELL
USING THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA. MALIAWCO

AS THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP AND AWAY FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING AREAS WITH
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...BUT BY LATER THIS MORNING...MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS SKIES CLEARING OUT TO SUNNY AS ALL PRECIP IS PUSHED AWAY
FROM OUR CWA AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL SKIM ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MAY DRAG A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS
VERY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES IF ANY AT ALL.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGER AND MORE
INFLUENTIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...THEREBY CLEARING OUT THE SKIES
AGAIN AND CHASING ALL PRECIP AWAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REACHING EASILY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER. DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL
LIKELY BRING GUSTY EAST TO SE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A MIX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS
IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS HAS THE
SYSTEM BEING CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
WRAP AROUND PRECIP THAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS
THE VERTICAL STACKING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HAS THE FORECAST IN
A DRY SLOT MOST OF THE TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES.

THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
EXITING UPPER WAVE IS WRAPPING SOME LOW CLOUD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

WEST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 191528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY
PUSHING AWAY. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS FURTHER NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...A 500MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT BY
MID AFTERNOON NEARLY ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA SHOULD BE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS
TO BECOME CURRENT WITH OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST TRENDS. ALSO
DECIDED TO LOWER HIGHS VERY MODESTLY IN THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
PERSISTING CLOUD COVER. THE WIND GRIDS WERE REFRESHED AS WELL
USING THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA. MALIAWCO

AS THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP AND AWAY FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING AREAS WITH
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...BUT BY LATER THIS MORNING...MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS SKIES CLEARING OUT TO SUNNY AS ALL PRECIP IS PUSHED AWAY
FROM OUR CWA AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL SKIM ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MAY DRAG A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS
VERY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES IF ANY AT ALL.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A LARGER AND MORE
INFLUENTIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...THEREBY CLEARING OUT THE SKIES
AGAIN AND CHASING ALL PRECIP AWAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REACHING EASILY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER. DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL
LIKELY BRING GUSTY EAST TO SE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE WEST.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A MIX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS
IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS HAS THE
SYSTEM BEING CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF
WRAP AROUND PRECIP THAT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS
THE VERTICAL STACKING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HAS THE FORECAST IN
A DRY SLOT MOST OF THE TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES.

THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
EXITING UPPER WAVE IS WRAPPING SOME LOW CLOUD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

WEST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191450
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER ON
TAP FOR TODAY. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

A QUIET AND WARM WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A FEW THUNDESTORMS TO THE AREA LAST EVENING IS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THROUGH THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS BACK
TO THE REGION. HOWEVER DYNAMICS ARE WEAKER THAN WITH FRIDAYS
SYSTEM AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE DRIER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MESSAGE IS BECOMING CLEAR THAT WEATHER TRANSITION WILL BEGIN ON
TUESDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES CONTINUE
TO DECREASE FOR A LONG DURATION WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING BUT IT WILL BE A WETTER
PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TUESDAY CONTINUES THE MILD WEATHER WITH
BETTER MIXING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING HEIGHTS. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS.

BIG PICTURE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY.
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TROUGH AXIS LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS UNSETTLED AND
SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT STRONG FORCING FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FOCUS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WHERE UPSLOPE
AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FACTORS. GFS IS THE WETTER
OF THE MODELS WITH A MORE MATURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REACHING SOUTHERN
MONTANA. ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN. IMPORTANT FACTOR IS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION ON THE GFS WOULD OCCUR WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES SO SNOWMELT WILL BE DECREASING IN CONTRIBUTION WHEN
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OCCURS.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY
REACHING THE 50S. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS AT KLVM THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM THE
S-SW TO W-NW. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 043/067 039/069 044/072 046/057 038/050 032/051
    0/U 01/N    00/U    12/T    45/W    44/W    32/W
LVM 067 039/063 038/070 041/071 039/053 033/052 030/057
    0/U 11/U    00/B    25/T    66/W    43/W    32/W
HDN 069 038/069 035/070 039/075 041/058 034/051 031/053
    0/U 01/U    00/U    12/T    45/W    44/W    32/W
MLS 068 038/068 035/067 040/071 044/061 036/050 030/049
    0/U 01/N    00/U    01/B    35/T    45/W    42/W
4BQ 068 039/070 035/069 042/075 044/062 033/052 030/050
    0/U 01/N    00/U    02/T    25/T    45/W    42/W
BHK 062 036/067 034/065 039/067 044/063 034/047 026/046
    0/U 01/N    00/U    01/N    35/T    45/W    42/W
SHR 067 038/067 035/069 039/076 042/058 037/050 031/051
    0/U 01/U    00/U    02/T    34/W    44/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 191135
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...An upper ridge will move into western Montana
this morning and to central Montana this afternoon. This should keep
the forecast area dry and skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will
be much lighter than those of Friday. The next upper air disturbance
will move into western Montana later tonight and then into eastern
Montana Sunday afternoon. The associated cold front is expected to
reach Cut Bank and Drummond around midnight and then should be east
of a Lewistown to Bozeman line by late tonight. Behind the cold
front gusty winds will develop. With the quick-moving cold front and
winds aloft becoming moderately strong confidence in high winds over
the Rocky Mountain Front is moderate so have issued a high wind
watch which will start this evening and last into Sunday morning.
Farther east confidence in high winds is low so did not issue a high
wind watch. Models are in agreement in not forecasting much moisture
with the disturbance/cold front and expect no more than a few
showers east of the Rocky Mountain Front. After the disturbance
expect generally dry conditions which will be aided by the next
upper ridge which will move over western and central Montana Sunday
night. On Monday southwest flow aloft will develop and expect an
increase in high level moisture. However low levels will be quite
dry and even though afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side
expect little if any instability. Due to this and also models
forecasting little if any lift..have dropped the mention of
precipitation for Monday. Blank

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough moves
onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into the
interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday night
with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to the
region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level jet
energy associated with the trough approach the Northern Rockies late
Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at the surface
and cold front will shift east across the forecast area Tuesday
night in conjunction with good mid-upper level forcing associated
with the trough, bringing widespread precipitation to most of the
forecast area. Enough warming and destabilization occurs Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the trough for a chance of thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over central and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Models then diverge with the
evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS model continuing to
depict a closed/stacked system that slowly drifts from eastern MT
into the Dakotas, resulting in continued wrap around precipitation
and northerly/moist upslope flow through at least Thursday morning,
while the ECMWF model moves the system through much quicker with
drying and weak ridging moving over the region late Wednesday
through Thursday. With a downstream upper level ridge over the
central US/Canada depicted by both models, am leaning toward a
solution slower than the ECMWF but not as wet/prolonged as the GFS
and have maintained higher pops through Wednesday evening with
gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday. Cooler temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough moves over the
region with snow levels lowering to around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday,
then as low as around 4000 ft Wednesday night. By Friday, models
come back into agreement, at least at the large scale, with weak
upper level ridging shifting east across the region before the next
deep trough in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west
coast next weekend. Hoenisch

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will prevail across north central and southwest MT
through this evening under clear to partly cloudy skies with breezy
southwest winds developing this afternoon. A cold front associated
with an upper level weather disturbance moving east along the
Canadian border tonight will move quickly across the region between
06z and 10z Sunday morning. Main impact from the front will be an
abrupt increase in west winds with gusts 30-40 kts. A brief period
of broken mid level cloud cover is likely around the time of frontal
passage late tonight, however precipitation and any lower level
cloud-cover will be confined to areas along and west of the
Continental Divide. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  41  59  35 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  61  37  57  30 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  67  39  61  37 /   0  10  10   0
BZN  67  33  62  32 /   0  20  10   0
WEY  55  33  55  29 /   0  20  10   0
DLN  66  34  61  34 /   0  10  10   0
HVR  64  38  65  32 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  62  36  57  32 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Sunday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 191021
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
421 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...An upper ridge will move into western Montana
this morning and to central Montana this afternoon. This should keep
the forecast area dry and skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will
be much lighter than those of Friday. The next upper air disturbance
will move into western Montana later tonight and then into eastern
Montana Sunday afternoon. The associated cold front is expected to
reach Cut Bank and Drummond around midnight and then should be east
of a Lewistown to Bozeman line by late tonight. Behind the cold
front gusty winds will develop. With the quick-moving cold front and
winds aloft becoming moderately strong confidence in high winds over
the Rocky Mountain Front is moderate so have issued a high wind
watch which will start this evening and last into Sunday morning.
Farther east confidence in high winds is low so did not issue a high
wind watch. Models are in agreement in not forecasting much moisture
with the disturbance/cold front and expect no more than a few
showers east of the Rocky Mountain Front. After the disturbance
expect generally dry conditions which will be aided by the next
upper ridge which will move over western and central Montana Sunday
night. On Monday southwest flow aloft will develop and expect an
increase in high level moisture. However low levels will be quite
dry and even though afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side
expect little if any instability. Due to this and also models
forecasting little if any lift..have dropped the mention of
precipitation for Monday. Blank

Monday night through Saturday...Large scale upper level trough moves
onto the west coast Monday night and progresses east into the
interior western US Tuesday, crossing the Rockies Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Models are in fair agreement through Tuesday night
with SW flow aloft ahead of the trough bringing warming to the
region on Tuesday before the initial shortwave and upper level jet
energy associated with the trough approach the Northern Rockies late
Tuesday afternoon. Inverted trough of low pressure at the surface
and cold front will shift east across the forecast area Tuesday
night in conjunction with good mid-upper level forcing associated
with the trough, bringing widespread precipitation to most of the
forecast area. Enough warming and destabilization occurs Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the trough for a chance of thunderstorms late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over central and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Models then diverge with the
evolution of the trough Wed/Thurs with GFS model continuing to
depict a closed/stacked system that slowly drifts from eastern MT
into the Dakotas, resulting in continued wrap around precipitation
and northerly/moist upslope flow through at least Thursday morning,
while the ECMWF model moves the system through much quicker with
drying and weak ridging moving over the region late Wednesday
through Thursday. With a downstream upper level ridge over the
central US/Canada depicted by both models, am leaning toward a
solution slower than the ECMWF but not as wet/prolonged as the GFS
and have maintained higher pops through Wednesday evening with
gradual drying Wednesday night/Thursday. Cooler temperatures are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough moves over the
region with snow levels lowering to around 5000-6000 ft Wednesday,
then as low as around 4000 ft Wednesday night. By Friday, models
come back into agreement, at least at the large scale, with weak
upper level ridging shifting east across the region before the next
deep trough in the eastern Pacific/Gulf of AK moves onto the west
coast next weekend. Hoenisch

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect increased snow melt Monday through Tuesday as snow levels
range from 7000 to 8000 feet in the north to 8000 to 9000 feet in
the south. Confidence remains high that most locations should see at
least a quarter of an inch of precipitation late Tuesday and Tuesday
night with central portions of the forecast area likely to see
around a half inch of precipitation during this period. Convective
nature of precipitation Tuesday evening could result in localized
heavier amounts. Confidence remains low however for additional
precipitation amounts Wednesday and Thursday due to model
differences. The threat for flooding will increase early next week
with increased snowmelt followed by widespread precipitation Tuesday
night. For Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures and lower
snow levels should reduce runoff from snowmelt at higher elevations.
Hoenisch/Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0428Z.
VFR conditions are expected across north central and southwest
Montana through at least Saturday evening. Clouds and strong and
gusty westerly winds have mostly decreased across the area. However,
with a surface low pressure area moving slowly east across southern
Saskatchewan, gusty winds with mid level clouds and isolated showers
will persist through 09Z along the Canadian border (including KCTB
and KHVR). An upper level ridge of high pressure will then move into
the area for Saturday, with only areas of mid and high cloudiness
passing overhead. Westerly winds will become breezy again for
Saturday as well, but they will not be nearly as strong as those
today.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  41  59  35 /   0  10  10   0
CTB  61  37  57  30 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  67  39  61  37 /   0  10  10   0
BZN  67  33  62  32 /   0  20  10   0
WEY  55  33  55  29 /   0  20  10   0
DLN  66  34  61  34 /   0  10  10   0
HVR  64  38  65  32 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  62  36  57  32 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Sunday morning
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KMSO 190954
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
354 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A beautiful spring day will occur today with high
temperatures well into the 60s under sunny skies thanks to a high
pressure ridge over the area. Toward the end of the day a fast
moving weather disturbance will impact the region through Sunday
morning. Impacts from this system will be an increase in some
gusty winds with scattered showers across northwest Montana. This
will be short lived as:

Sunday and Monday will be under the influence of high pressure
again and bringing some pretty warm weather into the 70s on
Monday. This is about 10-15 degrees above normal.

Unfortunately the warmth and sun will go away as a large area of
low pressure establishes itself over the entire Tuesday through
Thursday. Southwest winds and instability will produce showers and
even a potential for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Then things begin to crash Tuesday night through Thursday.
Temperatures will drop at least 20 degrees. Precipitation will
become likely across the entire NR with snow levels lowering to
near the valley floors. This system will finally leave the region
Thursday evening. Potential impacts from this system next week:

Significant snows over all mountain passes and higher elevations.
A mix of snow and rain in the valleys. Rock and mudslides are a
potential at the lower elevations.

Expect unsettled weather and temperatures below normal at the end
of next week.





&&

.AVIATION...Expect vfr conditions today at all terminals with an
increase in some mid to high level clouds after 20/0100z


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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