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000
FXUS65 KTFX 271648
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
948 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...

Observations reveal the threat for freezing rain has ended over
Hill and Blaine counties, so the Freezing Rain Advisory was
cancelled. Attention turned to observed winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front, and elsehwere around the region. Norris Hill in
Madison County and other locations adjacent to the Rocky Mountain
front report wind gusts over 50 mph this morning. Short term model
guidance, in particular the HRRR, combined with observed pressure
falls over the region provide adequate confidence to expand the
high wind warning to include Lewis and Clark and Cascade counties
along with Norris Hill. High winds will not occur everywhere in
these counties, but more likely at a few specific locations. Other
areas to watch closely include eastern Glacier county and adjacent
to the Sweet Grass Hills. Winds speeds are likely to decline below
warning criteria overnight, but could increase again Friday ahead
of the advancing Arctic Front. High temperatures in the lower 50s
today appears on track once winds mix down the 10C inversion
measured on the 12Z GTF sounding. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A small area of rain/freezing rain could affect the Havre area
through 15z this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions over much
of the region...but winds will be on the increase. A steady snow is
expected to start on Friday evening over the north and spread
southward by Saturday morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014/

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night For Route 287
over Norris Hill in Madison County.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271648
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
948 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...

Observations reveal the threat for freezing rain has ended over
Hill and Blaine counties, so the Freezing Rain Advisory was
cancelled. Attention turned to observed winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front, and elsehwere around the region. Norris Hill in
Madison County and other locations adjacent to the Rocky Mountain
front report wind gusts over 50 mph this morning. Short term model
guidance, in particular the HRRR, combined with observed pressure
falls over the region provide adequate confidence to expand the
high wind warning to include Lewis and Clark and Cascade counties
along with Norris Hill. High winds will not occur everywhere in
these counties, but more likely at a few specific locations. Other
areas to watch closely include eastern Glacier county and adjacent
to the Sweet Grass Hills. Winds speeds are likely to decline below
warning criteria overnight, but could increase again Friday ahead
of the advancing Arctic Front. High temperatures in the lower 50s
today appears on track once winds mix down the 10C inversion
measured on the 12Z GTF sounding. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A small area of rain/freezing rain could affect the Havre area
through 15z this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions over much
of the region...but winds will be on the increase. A steady snow is
expected to start on Friday evening over the north and spread
southward by Saturday morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014/

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night For Route 287
over Norris Hill in Madison County.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271648
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
948 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...

Observations reveal the threat for freezing rain has ended over
Hill and Blaine counties, so the Freezing Rain Advisory was
cancelled. Attention turned to observed winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front, and elsehwere around the region. Norris Hill in
Madison County and other locations adjacent to the Rocky Mountain
front report wind gusts over 50 mph this morning. Short term model
guidance, in particular the HRRR, combined with observed pressure
falls over the region provide adequate confidence to expand the
high wind warning to include Lewis and Clark and Cascade counties
along with Norris Hill. High winds will not occur everywhere in
these counties, but more likely at a few specific locations. Other
areas to watch closely include eastern Glacier county and adjacent
to the Sweet Grass Hills. Winds speeds are likely to decline below
warning criteria overnight, but could increase again Friday ahead
of the advancing Arctic Front. High temperatures in the lower 50s
today appears on track once winds mix down the 10C inversion
measured on the 12Z GTF sounding. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A small area of rain/freezing rain could affect the Havre area
through 15z this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions over much
of the region...but winds will be on the increase. A steady snow is
expected to start on Friday evening over the north and spread
southward by Saturday morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014/

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night For Route 287
over Norris Hill in Madison County.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271648
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
948 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...

Observations reveal the threat for freezing rain has ended over
Hill and Blaine counties, so the Freezing Rain Advisory was
cancelled. Attention turned to observed winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front, and elsehwere around the region. Norris Hill in
Madison County and other locations adjacent to the Rocky Mountain
front report wind gusts over 50 mph this morning. Short term model
guidance, in particular the HRRR, combined with observed pressure
falls over the region provide adequate confidence to expand the
high wind warning to include Lewis and Clark and Cascade counties
along with Norris Hill. High winds will not occur everywhere in
these counties, but more likely at a few specific locations. Other
areas to watch closely include eastern Glacier county and adjacent
to the Sweet Grass Hills. Winds speeds are likely to decline below
warning criteria overnight, but could increase again Friday ahead
of the advancing Arctic Front. High temperatures in the lower 50s
today appears on track once winds mix down the 10C inversion
measured on the 12Z GTF sounding. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A small area of rain/freezing rain could affect the Havre area
through 15z this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions over much
of the region...but winds will be on the increase. A steady snow is
expected to start on Friday evening over the north and spread
southward by Saturday morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014/

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night For Route 287
over Norris Hill in Madison County.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 271603
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
903 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...FORECAST LARGELY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN
CURRENTLY FALLING ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THOENY TO JORDAN...AND
PUSHING EAST. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO PUSH FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER BASED ON THE LATEST ROAD REPORTS. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO CLEAN UP THE HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA THROUGH SW SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THIS OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARMING ALOFT
WILL TURN THE SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY.
EXPECT THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME... THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT... IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS FAR
EAST AS WHITEWATER... GLASGOW AND WIBAUX BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. MEANWHILE... IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR MALTA AND JORDAN BY 18Z AND
WHITEWATER... GLASGOW AND WIBAUX BY EVENING. WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED... ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TODAY TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL
DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING.

THE WARM FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE STAYING TO THE NORTH
FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WILL START TO BRING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST... UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STAYS TO THE WEST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON SATURDAY... WILL SEE LITTLE
RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS BITTER COLD AIR MOVES IN. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE IS
EXPECTED. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA...MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS...AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE WEAK TROUGH SETS BEHIND THIS AIR-MASS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FARTHER WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. A MORE POWERFUL WARM RIDGE LIES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPER COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THEN MODIFY WARMER AND EXIT TO THE EAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE DURING THIS
TIME AND THE REMNANTS OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THESE PERIODS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AND KEEP MONTANA
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF IT. THE WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PLACING ITS PASSAGE...DROPPING
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF IMPACT WEATHER MAKER. BY WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AND RE-SYNCS THE MODELS FAIRLY WELL WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS.

GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING AND
EXITING THE TERMINALS NEAR SUNSET.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TODAY WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS
AND AIRCRAFT WINGS. AFTERWARD...FREEZING RAIN IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER THAN KGDV...
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOO LOW FOR NOW TO DECLARE
FZRA IN THE TAFS DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL
LOADING WILL BE THE MOST COMMON. PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT
ARE MOST LIKELY ONCE CONTIGUOUS SNOWFALL STARTS. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE NEAR SUNSET AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SLOWS
AND EXITS.

VSBY: VFR TO IFR. MOST COMMON RANGE WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 3SM WITH
CONTINUOUS SNOW. DROPS AS LOW AS 2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE
INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 271603
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
903 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...FORECAST LARGELY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN
CURRENTLY FALLING ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THOENY TO JORDAN...AND
PUSHING EAST. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO PUSH FREEZING RAIN MENTION TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER BASED ON THE LATEST ROAD REPORTS. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO CLEAN UP THE HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA THROUGH SW SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THIS OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARMING ALOFT
WILL TURN THE SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY.
EXPECT THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME... THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT... IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS FAR
EAST AS WHITEWATER... GLASGOW AND WIBAUX BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY EVENING. MEANWHILE... IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR MALTA AND JORDAN BY 18Z AND
WHITEWATER... GLASGOW AND WIBAUX BY EVENING. WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED... ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TODAY TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL
DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING.

THE WARM FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE STAYING TO THE NORTH
FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WILL START TO BRING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST... UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STAYS TO THE WEST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON SATURDAY... WILL SEE LITTLE
RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS BITTER COLD AIR MOVES IN. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE IS
EXPECTED. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA...MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS...AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE WEAK TROUGH SETS BEHIND THIS AIR-MASS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FARTHER WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. A MORE POWERFUL WARM RIDGE LIES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUPER COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THEN MODIFY WARMER AND EXIT TO THE EAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE DURING THIS
TIME AND THE REMNANTS OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THESE PERIODS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AND KEEP MONTANA
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF IT. THE WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PLACING ITS PASSAGE...DROPPING
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF IMPACT WEATHER MAKER. BY WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AND RE-SYNCS THE MODELS FAIRLY WELL WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS.

GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING AND
EXITING THE TERMINALS NEAR SUNSET.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TODAY WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS
AND AIRCRAFT WINGS. AFTERWARD...FREEZING RAIN IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER THAN KGDV...
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOO LOW FOR NOW TO DECLARE
FZRA IN THE TAFS DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL
LOADING WILL BE THE MOST COMMON. PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT
ARE MOST LIKELY ONCE CONTIGUOUS SNOWFALL STARTS. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE NEAR SUNSET AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SLOWS
AND EXITS.

VSBY: VFR TO IFR. MOST COMMON RANGE WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 3SM WITH
CONTINUOUS SNOW. DROPS AS LOW AS 2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE
INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271549
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
849 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BIGGEST CHALLENGE BEING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. KLVM WAS ALREADY 47 DEGREES AT 15Z AND NYE AND
ROSCOE WERE 48 DEGREES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT FROM
ROSEBUD TO POWDER RIVER COUNTY. PRESSURE FALLS...DUE TO VORTICITY
OVER NE MT...WILL AID THE FRONT IN MOVING NE TODAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA WITH THE WARMING AIDED BY
MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS SEEN ON BUFKIT.
NOTED THAT WRF WAS OVERDOING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS THIS MORNING
AND THUS THAT MODEL/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TOO LOW. THE
MAV FORECAST SEEMED MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO THIS MODEL SO NO NEED
TO CHANGE THE FORECAST. THE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND SHOULD MELT
QUICKLY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.

MADE A CALL TO THE SHERIFF IN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNDER SOME OF THE
RADAR ECHOES. SHERIFF REPORTED NO PRECIPITATION. STRONGER ECHOES
WERE OVER N ROSEBUD COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OCCURRING...SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING POPS ALONE FOR THE NE
ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...BUT DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW BASED ON
BUFKIT.

WINDS HAD DECREASED A BIT IN THE KLVM AREA AT 15Z BUT SHOULD PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AS MIXING INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ADVISORY
LOOKED FINE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AS
LOCAL GUIDANCE HINTED AT A POSSIBLE WARNING ON THE 29TH AT 00Z.
LATEST MODELS LOOKED CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR
SAT/S ARCTIC FRONT. SAW THE ECMWF WAS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN
OTHER MODELS FOR SAT AT 700 MB WHICH COULD AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS...SO
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT ALL THE NEW DATA WHEN IT COMES IN TO SEE IF
THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD OTHER MODELS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

TRANSITION TO A WARMER COUPLE OF DAYS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AS A
ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT GOES THROUGH SUBTLE BACKING AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. WESTERN ZONES
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALREADY REFLECT THIS TRANSITION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4OS WHILE COLD AIR LINGERS AS FAR WEST AS
REEDPOINT AND HARLOWTON. VWP PROFILE IN BILLINGS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT
WESTERLY WINDS 2KFT ABOVE THE GROUND SO TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPS WILL PRETTY FAST WHEN IT BEGINS TO OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR
CENTRAL AREAS. THE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECEIVED TODAY IS CAUSING
FOG IN SHELTERED AREAS LIKE LIVINGSTON OR WHERE LOCAL UPSLOPE IS
OCCURRING LIKE BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z WHEN THE
MIXING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

FURTHER EAST THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED. THIS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG WARMFRONT BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE SNOW COVER MANY AREAS WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEATHER STORY WILL BE WIND FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. LEESIDE TROUGHING DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL
SUPPORT STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS FOR A LONG DURATION. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY.

FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AND IN THE 50S WHICH COULD
APPROACH RECORDS. MOIST GROUND WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S WITH UPPER 40S OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BEGIN TO
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS MILD EARLY BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH BILLINGS
AROUND 4 AM. THIS IS A MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THEN THE LAST
SYSTEM FROM A TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE. PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO
LAG INTO THE COLDER AIR SO EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

BLAST OF COLD ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION COMING FOR THIS
WEEKEND. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THIS INITIAL PHASE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY.

COLD AIR CURRENTLY POOLING IN NORTHERN BC/ALBERTA WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND REACH OUR CWA SATURDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FROPA AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH A TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON
AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
FROPA TIMING BUT FAVOR THE FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH SUGGEST
ARRIVAL INTO BILLINGS AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AND GREATEST THREAT OF PCPN SHOULD LAG
THE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR A FAST FREEZE OF WET ROADS. HAVE ALSO FAVORED THE
ECMWF WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF...WITH A BIT
MORE AMPLIFICATION AND DYNAMICS LASTING INTO SUNDAY...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS INTO SUNDAY IN OUR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE DEEP IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF SNOWFALL
BUT AS TEMPS TURN COLDER THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME FINER...IE LATE
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WEST AND SOUTH...ALONG WITH TEMPS FALLING HARD
TO NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISSUES WITH WIND
CHILLS IN OUR EAST BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS CORE OF SFC HIGH NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPS...BUT TODAYS MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING/WINDS ON MONDAY WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE NW...KEEPING RIDGING SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED. MODELS
DIVERGE A GREAT DEAL BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...WITH THE GFS
TAKING WEAK ENERGY FROM THE PAC COAST THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THE ECMWF BUILDING A RIDGE AHEAD OF A WEAKENING PAC LOW. EITHER
WAY DO NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO DYNAMIC IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME...
AND WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL MODERATION WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...

OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SE MT THIS
MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES FROM HYSHAM TO BAKER. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM KLVM TO KBIL...SPREADING EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE
STRONG TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 KTS AT
KLVM. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KBIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/054 027/029 902/010 004/031 019/035 015/033
    1/N 01/E    16/S    75/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
LVM 052 043/053 033/035 002/016 007/033 025/037 017/036
    1/N 11/N    37/O    74/S    11/B    22/J    11/B
HDN 050 031/054 024/030 901/010 001/031 014/035 012/034
    1/E 02/W    14/S    74/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
MLS 044 032/048 019/020 903/008 901/026 014/027 007/028
    3/R 11/E    25/S    52/S    10/U    12/J    11/B
4BQ 050 031/053 025/039 002/009 901/031 016/035 011/033
    1/B 11/E    12/S    53/S    10/B    12/J    11/B
BHK 038 029/046 022/024 902/006 903/024 014/026 006/026
    4/R 11/E    14/S    52/S    00/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 032/052 028/039 003/011 000/034 019/037 013/036
    1/N 01/E    12/S    76/S    10/B    22/J    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271549
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
849 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH BIGGEST CHALLENGE BEING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. KLVM WAS ALREADY 47 DEGREES AT 15Z AND NYE AND
ROSCOE WERE 48 DEGREES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT FROM
ROSEBUD TO POWDER RIVER COUNTY. PRESSURE FALLS...DUE TO VORTICITY
OVER NE MT...WILL AID THE FRONT IN MOVING NE TODAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA WITH THE WARMING AIDED BY
MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS SEEN ON BUFKIT.
NOTED THAT WRF WAS OVERDOING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS THIS MORNING
AND THUS THAT MODEL/S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TOO LOW. THE
MAV FORECAST SEEMED MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO THIS MODEL SO NO NEED
TO CHANGE THE FORECAST. THE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND SHOULD MELT
QUICKLY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.

MADE A CALL TO THE SHERIFF IN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNDER SOME OF THE
RADAR ECHOES. SHERIFF REPORTED NO PRECIPITATION. STRONGER ECHOES
WERE OVER N ROSEBUD COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OCCURRING...SO WILL LEAVE THE MORNING POPS ALONE FOR THE NE
ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE
AREAS...BUT DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW BASED ON
BUFKIT.

WINDS HAD DECREASED A BIT IN THE KLVM AREA AT 15Z BUT SHOULD PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AS MIXING INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ADVISORY
LOOKED FINE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AS
LOCAL GUIDANCE HINTED AT A POSSIBLE WARNING ON THE 29TH AT 00Z.
LATEST MODELS LOOKED CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR
SAT/S ARCTIC FRONT. SAW THE ECMWF WAS RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN
OTHER MODELS FOR SAT AT 700 MB WHICH COULD AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS...SO
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT ALL THE NEW DATA WHEN IT COMES IN TO SEE IF
THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD OTHER MODELS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

TRANSITION TO A WARMER COUPLE OF DAYS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AS A
ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT GOES THROUGH SUBTLE BACKING AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. WESTERN ZONES
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALREADY REFLECT THIS TRANSITION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4OS WHILE COLD AIR LINGERS AS FAR WEST AS
REEDPOINT AND HARLOWTON. VWP PROFILE IN BILLINGS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT
WESTERLY WINDS 2KFT ABOVE THE GROUND SO TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPS WILL PRETTY FAST WHEN IT BEGINS TO OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR
CENTRAL AREAS. THE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECEIVED TODAY IS CAUSING
FOG IN SHELTERED AREAS LIKE LIVINGSTON OR WHERE LOCAL UPSLOPE IS
OCCURRING LIKE BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z WHEN THE
MIXING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

FURTHER EAST THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED. THIS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG WARMFRONT BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE SNOW COVER MANY AREAS WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEATHER STORY WILL BE WIND FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. LEESIDE TROUGHING DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL
SUPPORT STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS FOR A LONG DURATION. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY.

FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AND IN THE 50S WHICH COULD
APPROACH RECORDS. MOIST GROUND WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S WITH UPPER 40S OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BEGIN TO
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS MILD EARLY BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH BILLINGS
AROUND 4 AM. THIS IS A MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THEN THE LAST
SYSTEM FROM A TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE. PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO
LAG INTO THE COLDER AIR SO EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

BLAST OF COLD ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION COMING FOR THIS
WEEKEND. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THIS INITIAL PHASE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY.

COLD AIR CURRENTLY POOLING IN NORTHERN BC/ALBERTA WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND REACH OUR CWA SATURDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FROPA AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH A TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON
AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
FROPA TIMING BUT FAVOR THE FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH SUGGEST
ARRIVAL INTO BILLINGS AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AND GREATEST THREAT OF PCPN SHOULD LAG
THE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR A FAST FREEZE OF WET ROADS. HAVE ALSO FAVORED THE
ECMWF WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF...WITH A BIT
MORE AMPLIFICATION AND DYNAMICS LASTING INTO SUNDAY...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS INTO SUNDAY IN OUR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE DEEP IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF SNOWFALL
BUT AS TEMPS TURN COLDER THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME FINER...IE LATE
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WEST AND SOUTH...ALONG WITH TEMPS FALLING HARD
TO NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISSUES WITH WIND
CHILLS IN OUR EAST BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS CORE OF SFC HIGH NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPS...BUT TODAYS MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING/WINDS ON MONDAY WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE NW...KEEPING RIDGING SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED. MODELS
DIVERGE A GREAT DEAL BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...WITH THE GFS
TAKING WEAK ENERGY FROM THE PAC COAST THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THE ECMWF BUILDING A RIDGE AHEAD OF A WEAKENING PAC LOW. EITHER
WAY DO NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO DYNAMIC IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME...
AND WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL MODERATION WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...

OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SE MT THIS
MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVES FROM HYSHAM TO BAKER. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM KLVM TO KBIL...SPREADING EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE
STRONG TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 KTS AT
KLVM. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KBIL. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/054 027/029 902/010 004/031 019/035 015/033
    1/N 01/E    16/S    75/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
LVM 052 043/053 033/035 002/016 007/033 025/037 017/036
    1/N 11/N    37/O    74/S    11/B    22/J    11/B
HDN 050 031/054 024/030 901/010 001/031 014/035 012/034
    1/E 02/W    14/S    74/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
MLS 044 032/048 019/020 903/008 901/026 014/027 007/028
    3/R 11/E    25/S    52/S    10/U    12/J    11/B
4BQ 050 031/053 025/039 002/009 901/031 016/035 011/033
    1/B 11/E    12/S    53/S    10/B    12/J    11/B
BHK 038 029/046 022/024 902/006 903/024 014/026 006/026
    4/R 11/E    14/S    52/S    00/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 032/052 028/039 003/011 000/034 019/037 013/036
    1/N 01/E    12/S    76/S    10/B    22/J    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 271207
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
506 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...WIDESPREAD SNOW AND A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TO IMPACT NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Periods of rain and snow will continue to be present across the
Northern Rockies through Friday, with temperature inversions
persisting within middle elevation valleys. Fog and freezing fog
will be present at times within area valleys throughout the
morning and early afternoons. Some of the fog will persist in
isolated pockets throughout each day.

Friday evening through Saturday, a very cold arctic airmass and
relatively mild Pacific airmass will interact over the Northern
Rockies, bringing widespread snowfall and another episode of very
cold temperatures to the region. Current weather models suggest
that the heaviest snowfall will occur across northwest Montana,
including the Glacier Park Region. Snowfall will combine with the
rush of cold air over the Continental Divide, creating blowing
snow conditions on Saturday followed by bitterly cold wind chill
Saturday evening. Wind gusts near 40 mph at the mouth of Hellgate
and Badrock Canyons and incoming cold air will create wind chill
temperatures well below zero. Also, considering the widespread
rainfall and melting snow between now and Saturday, a flash freeze
of water on pavement appears likely. Combining the impacts of
freezing pavement, heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and bitterly cold
wind chill, a significant safety hazard will exist for most of the
weekend, particularly for those traveling over area mountain
passes. Winds and snow will diminish during Sunday, with very cold
temperatures continuing to be present, particularly across
northwest Montana.

The cold temperatures will continue throughout next week, but will
slowly moderate as the region remains under a west or northwest
flow. There is potential for periods of rain/snow throughout the
week, but there is still much uncertainty on timing and amounts of
precipitation possible.

&&

.AVIATION...Freezing fog and low stratus will impact air terminals
KGPI, KMSO, and KSMN through at least 27/1200Z. Fog and stratus
may be interrupted by areas of rain/snow moving across airfields
periodically. Visibility and ceilings will improve after 27/1200Z,
however pockets of low clouds and low visibility will likely
obscure terrain surrounding most airfields throughout the day.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A small area of rain/freezing rain could affect the Havre area
through 15z this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions over much
of the region...but winds will be on the increase. A steady snow is
expected to start on Friday evening over the north and spread
southward by Saturday morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
A small area of rain/freezing rain could affect the Havre area
through 15z this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions over much
of the region...but winds will be on the increase. A steady snow is
expected to start on Friday evening over the north and spread
southward by Saturday morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271045
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
345 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Band of precipitation will lift north and diminish through the
remainder of tonight period of -SN or -FZRASN possible at KHVR.
behind this band of precipitation to the SW, partial clearing has
resulted in areas of locally dense fog at KCTB and KGTF which will
improve as W/SW winds spread into the region overnight. Low level
wind shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period tonight
before the stronger W/SW winds aloft mix down to the surface.
Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with strongest
winds over western portions of the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271045
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
345 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across Central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
high wind warning for the Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
Eastern Glacier county although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of the Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where POPs
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...Very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over North Central MT...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The EC model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of Southwest MT. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo
pops...as the GFS/EC have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Band of precipitation will lift north and diminish through the
remainder of tonight period of -SN or -FZRASN possible at KHVR.
behind this band of precipitation to the SW, partial clearing has
resulted in areas of locally dense fog at KCTB and KGTF which will
improve as W/SW winds spread into the region overnight. Low level
wind shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period tonight
before the stronger W/SW winds aloft mix down to the surface.
Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with strongest
winds over western portions of the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  41  51   0 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  47  37  45  -7 /  10  10  30 100
HLN  49  35  49  20 /  10  10  20  40
BZN  47  31  48  29 /  10  20  20  40
WEY  38  28  38  23 /  20  30  30  60
DLN  49  35  48  33 /  10  20  20  30
HVR  45  31  43   1 /  50  10  20  80
LWT  52  37  51  10 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271038
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
338 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

TRANSITION TO A WARMER COUPLE OF DAYS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AS A
ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT GOES THROUGH SUBTLE BACKING AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. WESTERN ZONES
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALREADY REFLECT THIS TRANSITION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4OS WHILE COLD AIR LINGERS AS FAR WEST AS
REEDPOINT AND HARLOWTON. VWP PROFILE IN BILLINGS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT
WESTERLY WINDS 2KFT ABOVE THE GROUND SO TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPS WILL PRETTY FAST WHEN IT BEGINS TO OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR
CENTRAL AREAS. THE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECEIVED TODAY IS CAUSING
FOG IN SHELTERED AREAS LIKE LIVINGSTON OR WHERE LOCAL UPSLOPE IS
OCCURRING LIKE BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z WHEN THE
MIXING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

FURTHER EAST THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED. THIS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG WARMFRONT BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE SNOW COVER MANY AREAS WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEATHER STORY WILL BE WIND FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. LEESIDE TROUGHING DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL
SUPPORT STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS FOR A LONG DURATION. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY.

FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AND IN THE 50S WHICH COULD
APPROACH RECORDS. MOIST GROUND WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S WITH UPPER 40S OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BEGIN TO
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS MILD EARLY BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH BILLINGS
AROUND 4 AM. THIS IS A MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THEN THE LAST
SYSTEM FROM A TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE. PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO
LAG INTO THE COLDER AIR SO EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

BLAST OF COLD ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION COMING FOR THIS
WEEKEND. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THIS INITIAL PHASE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY.

COLD AIR CURRENTLY POOLING IN NORTHERN BC/ALBERTA WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND REACH OUR CWA SATURDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FROPA AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH A TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON
AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
FROPA TIMING BUT FAVOR THE FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH SUGGEST
ARRIVAL INTO BILLINGS AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AND GREATEST THREAT OF PCPN SHOULD LAG
THE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR A FAST FREEZE OF WET ROADS. HAVE ALSO FAVORED THE
ECMWF WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF...WITH A BIT
MORE AMPLIFICATION AND DYNAMICS LASTING INTO SUNDAY...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS INTO SUNDAY IN OUR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE DEEP IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF SNOWFALL
BUT AS TEMPS TURN COLDER THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME FINER...IE LATE
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WEST AND SOUTH...ALONG WITH TEMPS FALLING HARD
TO NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISSUES WITH WIND
CHILLS IN OUR EAST BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS CORE OF SFC HIGH NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPS...BUT TODAYS MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING/WINDS ON MONDAY WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE NW...KEEPING RIDGING SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED. MODELS
DIVERGE A GREAT DEAL BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...WITH THE GFS
TAKING WEAK ENERGY FROM THE PAC COAST THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THE ECMWF BUILDING A RIDGE AHEAD OF A WEAKENING PAC LOW. EITHER
WAY DO NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO DYNAMIC IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME...
AND WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL MODERATION WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN WILL PRODUCE MVFR OR
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE MTNS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT KBIL AND KSHR BY 11-13Z...THEN KMLS AND
KBHK BY 18Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED OCCASIONALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STRONG TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 KTS AT KLVM. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KBIL.

JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/054 027/029 902/010 004/031 019/035 015/033
    1/N 01/E    16/S    75/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
LVM 052 043/053 033/035 002/016 007/033 025/037 017/036
    1/N 11/N    37/O    74/S    11/B    22/J    11/B
HDN 050 031/054 024/030 901/010 001/031 014/035 012/034
    1/E 02/W    14/S    74/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
MLS 044 032/048 019/020 903/008 901/026 014/027 007/028
    3/R 11/E    25/S    52/S    10/U    12/J    11/B
4BQ 050 031/053 025/039 002/009 901/031 016/035 011/033
    1/E 11/E    12/S    53/S    10/B    12/J    11/B
BHK 038 029/046 022/024 902/006 903/024 014/026 006/026
    4/R 11/E    14/S    52/S    00/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 032/052 028/039 003/011 000/034 019/037 013/036
    1/N 01/E    12/S    76/S    10/B    22/J    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271038
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
338 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

TRANSITION TO A WARMER COUPLE OF DAYS BEGINNING THIS MORNING AS A
ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT GOES THROUGH SUBTLE BACKING AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. WESTERN ZONES
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALREADY REFLECT THIS TRANSITION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4OS WHILE COLD AIR LINGERS AS FAR WEST AS
REEDPOINT AND HARLOWTON. VWP PROFILE IN BILLINGS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT
WESTERLY WINDS 2KFT ABOVE THE GROUND SO TRANSITION TO WARMER
TEMPS WILL PRETTY FAST WHEN IT BEGINS TO OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR
CENTRAL AREAS. THE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECEIVED TODAY IS CAUSING
FOG IN SHELTERED AREAS LIKE LIVINGSTON OR WHERE LOCAL UPSLOPE IS
OCCURRING LIKE BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z WHEN THE
MIXING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

FURTHER EAST THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT COVERAGE IS LIMITED. THIS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG WARMFRONT BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE SNOW COVER MANY AREAS WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEATHER STORY WILL BE WIND FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. LEESIDE TROUGHING DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL
SUPPORT STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS FOR A LONG DURATION. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY.

FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE A WARM DAY AND IN THE 50S WHICH COULD
APPROACH RECORDS. MOIST GROUND WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S WITH UPPER 40S OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BEGIN TO
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS MILD EARLY BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH BILLINGS
AROUND 4 AM. THIS IS A MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FRONT THEN THE LAST
SYSTEM FROM A TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE. PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO
LAG INTO THE COLDER AIR SO EXPECT FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

BLAST OF COLD ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION COMING FOR THIS
WEEKEND. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THIS INITIAL PHASE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY.

COLD AIR CURRENTLY POOLING IN NORTHERN BC/ALBERTA WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND REACH OUR CWA SATURDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FROPA AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...WITH A TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON
AS UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
FROPA TIMING BUT FAVOR THE FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH SUGGEST
ARRIVAL INTO BILLINGS AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AND GREATEST THREAT OF PCPN SHOULD LAG
THE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR A FAST FREEZE OF WET ROADS. HAVE ALSO FAVORED THE
ECMWF WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF...WITH A BIT
MORE AMPLIFICATION AND DYNAMICS LASTING INTO SUNDAY...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS INTO SUNDAY IN OUR SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE DEEP IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF SNOWFALL
BUT AS TEMPS TURN COLDER THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME FINER...IE LATE
SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WEST AND SOUTH...ALONG WITH TEMPS FALLING HARD
TO NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISSUES WITH WIND
CHILLS IN OUR EAST BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS CORE OF SFC HIGH NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPS...BUT TODAYS MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING/WINDS ON MONDAY WITH MORE ENERGY MOVING IN
QUICKLY FROM THE NW...KEEPING RIDGING SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED. MODELS
DIVERGE A GREAT DEAL BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...WITH THE GFS
TAKING WEAK ENERGY FROM THE PAC COAST THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THE ECMWF BUILDING A RIDGE AHEAD OF A WEAKENING PAC LOW. EITHER
WAY DO NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO DYNAMIC IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME...
AND WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL MODERATION WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN WILL PRODUCE MVFR OR
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE MTNS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT KBIL AND KSHR BY 11-13Z...THEN KMLS AND
KBHK BY 18Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED OCCASIONALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE STRONG TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 KTS AT KLVM. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KBIL.

JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/054 027/029 902/010 004/031 019/035 015/033
    1/N 01/E    16/S    75/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
LVM 052 043/053 033/035 002/016 007/033 025/037 017/036
    1/N 11/N    37/O    74/S    11/B    22/J    11/B
HDN 050 031/054 024/030 901/010 001/031 014/035 012/034
    1/E 02/W    14/S    74/S    10/B    22/J    11/B
MLS 044 032/048 019/020 903/008 901/026 014/027 007/028
    3/R 11/E    25/S    52/S    10/U    12/J    11/B
4BQ 050 031/053 025/039 002/009 901/031 016/035 011/033
    1/E 11/E    12/S    53/S    10/B    12/J    11/B
BHK 038 029/046 022/024 902/006 903/024 014/026 006/026
    4/R 11/E    14/S    52/S    00/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 032/052 028/039 003/011 000/034 019/037 013/036
    1/N 01/E    12/S    76/S    10/B    22/J    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 271030
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
330 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND
OF SNOW EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA THROUGH SW
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARMING ALOFT WILL TURN THE SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. EXPECT THE TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME... THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH
FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS WHITEWATER...
GLASGOW AND WIBAUX BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY EVENING. MEANWHILE... IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE NEAR MALTA AND JORDAN BY 18Z AND WHITEWATER... GLASGOW AND
WIBAUX BY EVENING. WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...
ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT
MAINTAINING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

THE WARM FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE STAYING TO THE NORTH
FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WILL START TO BRING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST... UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STAYS TO THE WEST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON SATURDAY... WILL SEE LITTLE
RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS BITTER COLD AIR MOVES IN. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE IS
EXPECTED. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA... MONTANA THE DAKOTAS... AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE WEAK TROUGH SETS BEHIND THIS AIRMASS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FARTHER WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH... A MORE POWERFUL WARM RIDGE LIES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THEN MODIFY WARMER AND EXIT TO THE EAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE DURING THIS
TIME AND THE REMNANTS OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THESE PERIODS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AND KEEP MONTANA
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF IT. THE WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PLACING ITS PASSAGE DROPPING
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF IMPACT WEATHER MAKER. BY WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AND RE-SYNCS THE MODELS FAIRLY WELL WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BANDS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE FILLING IN
COMPLETELY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY
INTENDED. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH... LIGHT SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH
PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
DIMINISHING AND EXITING THE TERMINALS NEAR SUNDOWN.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND
AIRCRAFT WINGS. FREEZING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 11Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. AFTERWARD... FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER THAN KGDV...
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOO LOW TO DECLARE FZRA IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL
LOADING WILL BE THE MOST COMMON. PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT
ARE MOST LIKELY ONCE CONTIGUOUS SNOWFALL STARTS. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE NEAR SUNDOWN AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SLOWS
AND EXITS.

VSBY: VFR TO IFR. MOST COMMON RANGE WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 3SM WITH
CONTINUOUS SNOW. DROPS AS LOW AS 2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE
INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 271030
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
330 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND
OF SNOW EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA THROUGH SW
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARMING ALOFT WILL TURN THE SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. EXPECT THE TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME... THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH
FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS WHITEWATER...
GLASGOW AND WIBAUX BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY EVENING. MEANWHILE... IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE NEAR MALTA AND JORDAN BY 18Z AND WHITEWATER... GLASGOW AND
WIBAUX BY EVENING. WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...
ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT
MAINTAINING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

THE WARM FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE STAYING TO THE NORTH
FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WILL START TO BRING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST... UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STAYS TO THE WEST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON SATURDAY... WILL SEE LITTLE
RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS BITTER COLD AIR MOVES IN. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE IS
EXPECTED. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA... MONTANA THE DAKOTAS... AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE WEAK TROUGH SETS BEHIND THIS AIRMASS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FARTHER WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH... A MORE POWERFUL WARM RIDGE LIES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THEN MODIFY WARMER AND EXIT TO THE EAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE DURING THIS
TIME AND THE REMNANTS OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THESE PERIODS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AND KEEP MONTANA
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF IT. THE WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PLACING ITS PASSAGE DROPPING
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF IMPACT WEATHER MAKER. BY WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AND RE-SYNCS THE MODELS FAIRLY WELL WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BANDS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE FILLING IN
COMPLETELY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY
INTENDED. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH... LIGHT SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH
PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
DIMINISHING AND EXITING THE TERMINALS NEAR SUNDOWN.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND
AIRCRAFT WINGS. FREEZING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 11Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. AFTERWARD... FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER THAN KGDV...
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOO LOW TO DECLARE FZRA IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL
LOADING WILL BE THE MOST COMMON. PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT
ARE MOST LIKELY ONCE CONTIGUOUS SNOWFALL STARTS. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE NEAR SUNDOWN AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SLOWS
AND EXITS.

VSBY: VFR TO IFR. MOST COMMON RANGE WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 3SM WITH
CONTINUOUS SNOW. DROPS AS LOW AS 2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE
INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 271030
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
330 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND
OF SNOW EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA THROUGH SW
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARMING ALOFT WILL TURN THE SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY. EXPECT THE TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME... THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE THE SWITCH
FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS WHITEWATER...
GLASGOW AND WIBAUX BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY EVENING. MEANWHILE... IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE NEAR MALTA AND JORDAN BY 18Z AND WHITEWATER... GLASGOW AND
WIBAUX BY EVENING. WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...
ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT
MAINTAINING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

THE WARM FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE STAYING TO THE NORTH
FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WILL START TO BRING THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOIST... UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STAYS TO THE WEST. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON SATURDAY... WILL SEE LITTLE
RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS BITTER COLD AIR MOVES IN. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE IS
EXPECTED. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA... MONTANA THE DAKOTAS... AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE WEAK TROUGH SETS BEHIND THIS AIRMASS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FARTHER WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH... A MORE POWERFUL WARM RIDGE LIES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THEN MODIFY WARMER AND EXIT TO THE EAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE DURING THIS
TIME AND THE REMNANTS OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THESE PERIODS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AND KEEP MONTANA
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF IT. THE WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PLACING ITS PASSAGE DROPPING
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF IMPACT WEATHER MAKER. BY WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AND RE-SYNCS THE MODELS FAIRLY WELL WITH
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS.

GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTHWEST IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BANDS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE FILLING IN
COMPLETELY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY
INTENDED. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH... LIGHT SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH
PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
DIMINISHING AND EXITING THE TERMINALS NEAR SUNDOWN.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND
AIRCRAFT WINGS. FREEZING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 11Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. AFTERWARD... FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER THAN KGDV...
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOO LOW TO DECLARE FZRA IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR. 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL
LOADING WILL BE THE MOST COMMON. PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT
ARE MOST LIKELY ONCE CONTIGUOUS SNOWFALL STARTS. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE NEAR SUNDOWN AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SLOWS
AND EXITS.

VSBY: VFR TO IFR. MOST COMMON RANGE WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 3SM WITH
CONTINUOUS SNOW. DROPS AS LOW AS 2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE
INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have cooled a bit more than originally thought. Lows
should occur near or before midnight most areas, with gradually
warming temperatures thereafter. Warmer air aloft could bring some
freezing rain to areas over Hill, Toole, Blaine, Chouteau and
Fergus Counties later tonight...before surface temperatures begin
a slow warming. Snow has diminished most areas that were in the
Winter Storm Warning, so the warning has been dropped. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of north central
Montana as some light snow persists, and the chance for freezing
rain will develop later tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Band of precipitation will lift north and diminish through the
remainder of tonight period of -SN or -FZRASN possible at KHVR.
behind this band of precipitation to the SW, partial clearing has
resulted in areas of locally dense fog at KCTB and KGTF which will
improve as W/SW winds spread into the region overnight. Low level
wind shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period tonight
before the stronger W/SW winds aloft mix down to the surface.
Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with strongest
winds over western portions of the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  23  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  27  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  26  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  32  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  38  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  28  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  27  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Thursday Blaine...
Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 270545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have cooled a bit more than originally thought. Lows
should occur near or before midnight most areas, with gradually
warming temperatures thereafter. Warmer air aloft could bring some
freezing rain to areas over Hill, Toole, Blaine, Chouteau and
Fergus Counties later tonight...before surface temperatures begin
a slow warming. Snow has diminished most areas that were in the
Winter Storm Warning, so the warning has been dropped. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of north central
Montana as some light snow persists, and the chance for freezing
rain will develop later tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
Band of precipitation will lift north and diminish through the
remainder of tonight period of -SN or -FZRASN possible at KHVR.
behind this band of precipitation to the SW, partial clearing has
resulted in areas of locally dense fog at KCTB and KGTF which will
improve as W/SW winds spread into the region overnight. Low level
wind shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period tonight
before the stronger W/SW winds aloft mix down to the surface.
Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with strongest
winds over western portions of the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  23  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  27  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  26  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  32  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  38  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  28  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  27  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Thursday Blaine...
Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270406
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH WESTERN BACK EDGE IN ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF ROSEBUD AND
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING JET ENERGY EXISTS ALOFT. THIS
AREA COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW LOCALLY. IN THE
WEST...WARMER AIR HAS MADE IT INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA BOUYED ON
GUSTY WEST WINDS. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMER AIR
WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A SET UP FOR A POSSIBLE WINDOW
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
REGION BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IT COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
OUR NE ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. I HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HITTING THE EASTERN ZONES HARDEST
OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED FOG TO MANY AREAS. BT


&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL EASTWARD. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED FROM KMLS EAST AND
NORTH. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL EXCEPT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR KLVM AND THE
NEARBY FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    21/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    21/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    31/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270406
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH WESTERN BACK EDGE IN ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF ROSEBUD AND
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING JET ENERGY EXISTS ALOFT. THIS
AREA COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW LOCALLY. IN THE
WEST...WARMER AIR HAS MADE IT INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA BOUYED ON
GUSTY WEST WINDS. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMER AIR
WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A SET UP FOR A POSSIBLE WINDOW
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
REGION BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IT COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
OUR NE ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. I HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HITTING THE EASTERN ZONES HARDEST
OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED FOG TO MANY AREAS. BT


&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL EASTWARD. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED FROM KMLS EAST AND
NORTH. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL EXCEPT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR KLVM AND THE
NEARBY FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    21/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    21/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    31/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270406
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH WESTERN BACK EDGE IN ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF ROSEBUD AND
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING JET ENERGY EXISTS ALOFT. THIS
AREA COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW LOCALLY. IN THE
WEST...WARMER AIR HAS MADE IT INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA BOUYED ON
GUSTY WEST WINDS. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMER AIR
WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A SET UP FOR A POSSIBLE WINDOW
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
REGION BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IT COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
OUR NE ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. I HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HITTING THE EASTERN ZONES HARDEST
OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED FOG TO MANY AREAS. BT


&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL EASTWARD. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED FROM KMLS EAST AND
NORTH. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL EXCEPT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR KLVM AND THE
NEARBY FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    21/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    21/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    31/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270406
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING WITH WESTERN BACK EDGE IN ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF ROSEBUD AND
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING JET ENERGY EXISTS ALOFT. THIS
AREA COULD PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW LOCALLY. IN THE
WEST...WARMER AIR HAS MADE IT INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA BOUYED ON
GUSTY WEST WINDS. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMER AIR
WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A SET UP FOR A POSSIBLE WINDOW
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
REGION BETWEEN BILLINGS AND MILES CITY LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IT COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
OUR NE ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. I HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HITTING THE EASTERN ZONES HARDEST
OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADDED FOG TO MANY AREAS. BT


&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KBIL EASTWARD. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED FROM KMLS EAST AND
NORTH. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL EXCEPT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 50KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR KLVM AND THE
NEARBY FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR TO IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    21/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    21/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    31/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 270342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have cooled a bit more than originally thought. Lows
should occur near or before midnight most areas, with gradually
warming temperatures thereafter. Warmer air aloft could bring some
freezing rain to areas over Hill, Toole, Blaine, Chouteau and
Fergus Counties later tonight...before surface temperatures begin
a slow warming. Snow has diminished most areas that were in the
Winter Storm Warning, so the warning has been dropped. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of north central
Montana as some light snow persists, and the chance for freezing
rain will develop later tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Band of -SN will continue to gradually lift north tonight,
continuing at the KCTB/KLWT/KHVR terminals with IFR/MVFR conditions
into this evening before ending at KLWT and KCTB by 06Z. At KHVR,
warmer air aloft may move into for a mix with -FZRA after 06Z
tonight. Central and SW MT terminals have already begun to see
improvement as precipitation has lifted north, however low levels
are very moist and some patchy fog is possible for a period this
evening before W/SW winds develop at the surface later tonight. W/SW
winds have already increased at 5000 ft MSL and low level wind
shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period this evening
before the stronger W/SW wind aloft mix down to the surface later
tonight. Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with
strongest winds over the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  23  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  27  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  26  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  32  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  38  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  28  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  27  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Thursday Blaine...
Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 270342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have cooled a bit more than originally thought. Lows
should occur near or before midnight most areas, with gradually
warming temperatures thereafter. Warmer air aloft could bring some
freezing rain to areas over Hill, Toole, Blaine, Chouteau and
Fergus Counties later tonight...before surface temperatures begin
a slow warming. Snow has diminished most areas that were in the
Winter Storm Warning, so the warning has been dropped. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of north central
Montana as some light snow persists, and the chance for freezing
rain will develop later tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Band of -SN will continue to gradually lift north tonight,
continuing at the KCTB/KLWT/KHVR terminals with IFR/MVFR conditions
into this evening before ending at KLWT and KCTB by 06Z. At KHVR,
warmer air aloft may move into for a mix with -FZRA after 06Z
tonight. Central and SW MT terminals have already begun to see
improvement as precipitation has lifted north, however low levels
are very moist and some patchy fog is possible for a period this
evening before W/SW winds develop at the surface later tonight. W/SW
winds have already increased at 5000 ft MSL and low level wind
shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period this evening
before the stronger W/SW wind aloft mix down to the surface later
tonight. Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with
strongest winds over the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  23  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  27  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  26  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  32  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  38  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  28  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  27  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Thursday Blaine...
Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have cooled a bit more than originally thought. Lows
should occur near or before midnight most areas, with gradually
warming temperatures thereafter. Warmer air aloft could bring some
freezing rain to areas over Hill, Toole, Blaine, Chouteau and
Fergus Counties later tonight...before surface temperatures begin
a slow warming. Snow has diminished most areas that were in the
Winter Storm Warning, so the warning has been dropped. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of north central
Montana as some light snow persists, and the chance for freezing
rain will develop later tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Band of -SN will continue to gradually lift north tonight,
continuing at the KCTB/KLWT/KHVR terminals with IFR/MVFR conditions
into this evening before ending at KLWT and KCTB by 06Z. At KHVR,
warmer air aloft may move into for a mix with -FZRA after 06Z
tonight. Central and SW MT terminals have already begun to see
improvement as precipitation has lifted north, however low levels
are very moist and some patchy fog is possible for a period this
evening before W/SW winds develop at the surface later tonight. W/SW
winds have already increased at 5000 ft MSL and low level wind
shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period this evening
before the stronger W/SW wind aloft mix down to the surface later
tonight. Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with
strongest winds over the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  23  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  27  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  26  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  32  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  38  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  28  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  27  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Thursday Blaine...
Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have cooled a bit more than originally thought. Lows
should occur near or before midnight most areas, with gradually
warming temperatures thereafter. Warmer air aloft could bring some
freezing rain to areas over Hill, Toole, Blaine, Chouteau and
Fergus Counties later tonight...before surface temperatures begin
a slow warming. Snow has diminished most areas that were in the
Winter Storm Warning, so the warning has been dropped. The Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for most of north central
Montana as some light snow persists, and the chance for freezing
rain will develop later tonight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Band of -SN will continue to gradually lift north tonight,
continuing at the KCTB/KLWT/KHVR terminals with IFR/MVFR conditions
into this evening before ending at KLWT and KCTB by 06Z. At KHVR,
warmer air aloft may move into for a mix with -FZRA after 06Z
tonight. Central and SW MT terminals have already begun to see
improvement as precipitation has lifted north, however low levels
are very moist and some patchy fog is possible for a period this
evening before W/SW winds develop at the surface later tonight. W/SW
winds have already increased at 5000 ft MSL and low level wind
shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period this evening
before the stronger W/SW wind aloft mix down to the surface later
tonight. Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with
strongest winds over the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  23  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  27  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  26  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  32  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  38  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  28  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  27  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM MST Thursday Blaine...
Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270340
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BECOME A
WINTRY MIX BY 6AM WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN...BECOMING ALL
RAIN SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.    PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS FREEZING RAIN IS
DEFINITELY HIGH IMPACT.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV BY THIS EVENING.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MID MORNING WITH PERSISTENT
IFR POSSIBLE.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS. FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z. AFTERWARD... FREEZING RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOO LOW TO DECLARE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 TO 2SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED
FOR KGGW AND KGDV AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD TO KOLF AND KSDY
AFTER 12Z.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270340
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BECOME A
WINTRY MIX BY 6AM WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN...BECOMING ALL
RAIN SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.    PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS FREEZING RAIN IS
DEFINITELY HIGH IMPACT.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV BY THIS EVENING.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MID MORNING WITH PERSISTENT
IFR POSSIBLE.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS. FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z. AFTERWARD... FREEZING RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOO LOW TO DECLARE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 TO 2SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED
FOR KGGW AND KGDV AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD TO KOLF AND KSDY
AFTER 12Z.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 270340
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BECOME A
WINTRY MIX BY 6AM WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN...BECOMING ALL
RAIN SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.    PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS FREEZING RAIN IS
DEFINITELY HIGH IMPACT.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV BY THIS EVENING.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MID MORNING WITH PERSISTENT
IFR POSSIBLE.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS. FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z. AFTERWARD... FREEZING RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOO LOW TO DECLARE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 TO 2SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED
FOR KGGW AND KGDV AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD TO KOLF AND KSDY
AFTER 12Z.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270340
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BECOME A
WINTRY MIX BY 6AM WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN...BECOMING ALL
RAIN SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS.
UPDATED THE NEAR TERM WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.    PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS FREEZING RAIN IS
DEFINITELY HIGH IMPACT.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV BY THIS EVENING.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MID MORNING WITH PERSISTENT
IFR POSSIBLE.

FREEZING RAIN: THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS. FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AROUND 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z. AFTERWARD... FREEZING RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TOO LOW TO DECLARE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 TO 2SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED
FOR KGGW AND KGDV AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD TO KOLF AND KSDY
AFTER 12Z.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND 5 TO 15KTS...VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270104
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WORST OF THE SNOWFALL IS OVER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
LOCAL AREAS IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR
SO...OTHERWISE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE UNDER AN INCH AS BAND
SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WE STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG I-94 FROM BILLINGS TO MILES CITY LATER
THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST. ACCUMULATION OF SIGNIFICANT ICE IS TOO LOW TO MERIT ANY
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OR END FROM KBIL TO KSHR W THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE E OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM JUDITH GAP TO KBIL TO KSHR E TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED IN KSHR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG ON THU IN THE KLVM AREA
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 60 KT ON THU.
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
KLVM AREA. VFR WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON THU WITH
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    41/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    81/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    41/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270104
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WORST OF THE SNOWFALL IS OVER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
LOCAL AREAS IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR
SO...OTHERWISE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE UNDER AN INCH AS BAND
SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WE STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG I-94 FROM BILLINGS TO MILES CITY LATER
THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST. ACCUMULATION OF SIGNIFICANT ICE IS TOO LOW TO MERIT ANY
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OR END FROM KBIL TO KSHR W THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE E OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM JUDITH GAP TO KBIL TO KSHR E TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED IN KSHR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG ON THU IN THE KLVM AREA
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 60 KT ON THU.
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
KLVM AREA. VFR WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON THU WITH
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    41/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    81/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    41/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 262350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Band of -SN will continue to gradually lift north tonight,
continuing at the KCTB/KLWT/KHVR terminals with IFR/MVFR conditions
into this evening before ending at KLWT and KCTB by 06Z. At KHVR,
warmer air aloft may move into for a mix with -FZRA after 06Z
tonight. Central and SW MT terminals have already begun to see
improvement as precipitation has lifted north, however low levels
are very moist and some patchy fog is possible for a period this
evening before W/SW winds develop at the surface later tonight. W/SW
winds have already increased at 5000 ft MSL and low level wind
shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period this evening
before the stronger W/SW wind aloft mix down to the surface later
tonight. Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with
strongest winds over the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  33  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  29  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  28  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  34  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  25  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  29  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 262350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
Band of -SN will continue to gradually lift north tonight,
continuing at the KCTB/KLWT/KHVR terminals with IFR/MVFR conditions
into this evening before ending at KLWT and KCTB by 06Z. At KHVR,
warmer air aloft may move into for a mix with -FZRA after 06Z
tonight. Central and SW MT terminals have already begun to see
improvement as precipitation has lifted north, however low levels
are very moist and some patchy fog is possible for a period this
evening before W/SW winds develop at the surface later tonight. W/SW
winds have already increased at 5000 ft MSL and low level wind
shear may be an issue at KGTF and KCTB for a period this evening
before the stronger W/SW wind aloft mix down to the surface later
tonight. Winds increase further for all areas on Thursday with
strongest winds over the North-Central MT Plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  33  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  29  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  28  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  34  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  25  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  29  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KGGW 262246
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
346 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS FREEZING RAIN IS
DEFINITELY HIGH IMPACT.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. BY THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED LATER NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR
KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
WINGS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262246
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
346 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS FREEZING RAIN IS
DEFINITELY HIGH IMPACT.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. BY THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED LATER NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR
KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
WINGS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 262243
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. BY THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED LATER NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR
KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
WINGS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262243
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. BY THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED LATER NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR
KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
WINGS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262243
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. BY THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED LATER NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR
KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
WINGS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262243
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ACROSS PETROLEUM
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES IN PHILLIPS COUNTY TOWARD
SAND SPRINGS IN GARFIELD COUNTY. WEB CAMS...ROAD REPORTS...AND
SPOTTERS CONFIRM SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE WITH ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY DRIVING THIS SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...LIFTING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL WITH IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS ALOFT OVER PETROLEUM COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWITCH OF
PRECIP TYPE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.

THURSDAY MORNING THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE WARM FRONT...FINALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. THUS CONTINUED THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE WITH ONE
CHANGE...WE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO
FREEZING RAIN AS ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF ONE
INCH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL WRAP UP INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE...THUS COVERAGE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WITH THAT SAID THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR
JUST NORTH OF IT...AND READY TO RETREAT ONCE AGAIN AS A WESTERN
TROUGH EXTENSION OF THE HUDSON BAY ARCTIC LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA. THIS BRINGS VERY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...850MB TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -24C. ALSO AS THE FRONT
PASSES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS IT. SO AT
FIRST EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH NEMONT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE TO A GREAT EXTENT WHEN RAIN SHIFTS OVER TO SNOW. 00Z
SATURDAY THROUGH 12 SUNDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF IN THE EAST TO 4 AND A HALF INCHES IN THE LITTLE
ROCKIES. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE COLDEST NIGHT
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT ON TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES...ALL
SNOWFALL WILL END LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE COLD FRONT TIMING DOES BRING A CONTINUING
CHALLENGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BUT THE EC AND THE GFS DRIFTED TOGETHER A BIT MORE...WITH THE GFS
DOING THE MOST DRIFTING. THE MAIN EDITS THEREFORE WERE TO UPDATE
TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND...AND WEATHER PARAMETERS BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...IN GENERAL A WARM FRONT WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST
ACROSS MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TOWARDS NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. BY THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED LATER NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR
POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW. SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR
KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: EAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT
WINGS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLITES FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OR END FROM KBIL TO KSHR W THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE E OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM JUDITH GAP TO KBIL TO KSHR E TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED IN KSHR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG ON THU IN THE KLVM AREA
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 60 KT ON THU.
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
KLVM AREA. VFR WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON THU WITH
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    41/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    71/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    41/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-35-38-57-58.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
      SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLITES FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OR END FROM KBIL TO KSHR W THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE E OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM JUDITH GAP TO KBIL TO KSHR E TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED IN KSHR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG ON THU IN THE KLVM AREA
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 60 KT ON THU.
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
KLVM AREA. VFR WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON THU WITH
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    41/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    71/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    41/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-35-38-57-58.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
      SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLITES FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OR END FROM KBIL TO KSHR W THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE E OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM JUDITH GAP TO KBIL TO KSHR E TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED IN KSHR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG ON THU IN THE KLVM AREA
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 60 KT ON THU.
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
KLVM AREA. VFR WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON THU WITH
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    41/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    71/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    41/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-35-38-57-58.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
      SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO PULL WARMER
AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS AIR
WILL GET PULLED OVER THE DIVIDE AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
STRONG WINDS. STILL SEEING A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES WITH BILLINGS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND MILES CITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 6 PM WHEN IT SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. CANCELLED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORNS MOUNTAINS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN GAP FLOW FAVORED WIND AREAS
FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED BY MORNING.
COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THESE AREAS BUT
THE SNOW IS WET IN NATURE THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL
PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW ROLLERS IN THIS AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO MELT IN ERNEST.
FROM BILLINGS EAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN AS WARMER AIR
SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. AT THIS POINT THINK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT ANY WINTER
HIGHLITES FOR FREEZING RAIN AS ROADS SHOULD ALREADY BE SLICK AND
OR SNOW COVERED. EVENING AND MID SHIFTS WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SITUATION THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS WILL SEE
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
REMAINED JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THERE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH EXPECTED IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL CHEW
UP THE SNOW COVER AND SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATON OVER EASTERN
ZONES MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY BY MID DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM DAY EXPECTED. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CLOSE TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER HELD TEMPERATURES BACK. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IMPACTING TRAVEL ON I-90 WEST OF BILLINGS. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING A DISAGREEMENT ON THIS POINT THOUGH
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW WITHIN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR
ITS ARRIVAL AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MODEL SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS LOOKING
REASONABLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY. FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE...JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF SKI SEASON IN RED LODGE.
OVERALL EXPECT A CHANGE TO HARSH WINTER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER HEADS UPWARD ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE SIDE TROFFING INSTIGATES DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY BE STRONG AGAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OR END FROM KBIL TO KSHR W THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE E OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM JUDITH GAP TO KBIL TO KSHR E TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED IN KSHR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG ON THU IN THE KLVM AREA
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 60 KT ON THU.
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
KLVM AREA. VFR WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON THU WITH
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/047 036/049 028/031 902/012 004/031 022/037 013/029
    41/N    01/E    15/O    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/N
LVM 036/048 040/047 033/035 002/018 007/033 027/037 014/029
    21/N    11/N    37/O    74/S    21/B    12/W    11/N
HDN 025/049 031/050 024/033 901/014 001/031 018/039 010/032
    71/E    02/W    24/S    73/S    10/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 022/045 031/047 017/020 903/009 000/025 015/033 006/025
    93/O    11/E    25/S    52/S    10/B    12/W    21/U
4BQ 021/049 031/053 024/039 003/012 001/030 020/038 009/030
    61/E    11/E    13/S    53/S    10/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 016/039 028/044 021/024 902/007 000/024 014/032 006/022
    63/O    11/E    14/S    52/S    10/B    11/N    11/U
SHR 023/048 031/048 027/039 004/015 005/034 021/039 011/031
    41/N    01/E    13/S    64/S    10/B    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-35-38-57-58.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
      SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 262212
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday night...Moisture will generally move
northeast out of the area overnight as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds into Montana. Light to moderate snow will
move northeast across North Central Montana, so will keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the plains. Snow is
decreasing over the mountain areas of Northwest and Central
Montana, so am anticipating that the Warnings for those areas will
gradually be cancelled throughout the evening. Southwest winds
will spread northeast across the area in the wake of a warm
frontal boundary, which will likely allow temperatures to remain
steady or gradually rise overnight most areas. The northeast
plains portion of the forecast area (including Havre) will be a
bit slower to scour the below freezing air out of the area, so the
warmer air aloft may provide a set up for a freezing rain
potential, so have added mention of that in the forecast tonight
into Thursday morning. Otherwise, the westerly winds aloft will
keep a good chance of rain/snow in the mountains, but the
downsloping effect will keep the rest of the area mostly dry
Thursday into Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient will
be strongest right along the Rocky Mountain Front. This will help
mix down the moderately strong mid level winds, so have decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning starting at midnight
tonight and continuing through midnight Friday night. However,
there will be periods when winds will weaken quite a bit during
this period. The bottom line, though is that it should be a mild
but breezy Thanksgiving Day and night.
Coulston

Friday through Wednesday...The upper trough will move over the
Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of precip over
Cut Bank by late afternoon. Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the holiday weekend.
Expect another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana
and during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3
to 5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday
night through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys
of Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10
inches of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2
to 3 feet of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian
border. This includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air
moves back into the region on Saturday for a few days as well.
High temperatures on Saturday will likely be early in the day. By
Sunday morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below
are expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures
around zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a
blend of the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the
current forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank
to Havre on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a
bit early next week...but another upper level disturbance moves
southward through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus
leaned a bit above climo pops for that period...with below normal
temperates continuing into the mid portion of next week.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
The band of light to moderate snow with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will continue to move north over Central and
North Central Montana. The back edge of this band, currently between
KBTM and KHLN and associated with a northwest to southeast oriented
frontal boundary, will likely move through KHLN by 20Z, KGTF/KLWT by
22Z, KCTB by 02Z, and KHVR by 09Z. Conditions will generally improve
to VFR behind this boundary with increasing southwesterly
downsloping winds, but lingering showers may obscure mountain tops.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  53  40  50 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  27  46  33  42 /  50  10  20  60
HLN  33  51  35  48 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  29  48  31  47 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  28  38  26  37 /  20  10  30  50
DLN  34  48  35  47 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  25  45  28  39 / 100  30  10  20
LWT  29  52  36  50 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Friday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KMSO 262126
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...Warmer conditions will persist throughout the night
tonight, with many valleys not even reaching freezing in western
Montana and central Idaho. The ample moisture over the last 24
hours, near record rainfall in many locations and record rainfall
in yesterday in Butte, has primed the atmosphere for fog. Cloud
cover and an increasing southerly wind will be working against the
fog, and may cause it to lift to a low stratus cloud deck by
morning. But there is so much moisture with snow on the ground at
least patchy fog is likely.

Glacier National Park and Marias pass will continue to get snow
through this evening. Precipitation is likely to continue there
through Thanksgiving and Friday, though it has lightened and become
less of an impact, so the warning has been cancelled.

Thanksgiving will be warmer with highs in the 40s across much of
the region with continued light rain and snow, mainly over the
mountains and in northwest Montana.

The models are still in agreement with a change in the weather for
this coming holiday weekend. A plume of moisture will be
streaming into the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. Snow
levels will be fairly high during the onset of precipitation
causing mainly rain in the valleys and snow being confined to the
higher terrain. An arctic will push into northwest Montana Friday
night over the continental divide. This arctic front will cause
snow levels to crash to valley floors and also enhance snowfall
rates. Areas north of the I-90 corridor could receive significant
snow amounts. The combination of snow and strong easterly winds
could cause areas of blowing snow. The arctic will finish pushing
across western Montana on Saturday, but the interaction with the
moisture does not appear to be as significant. While the arctic
pushes into western Montana, a Pacific cold front will move into
north central Idaho causing snow levels to lower and bring in a
cooler airmass. Areas above 3000 feet should receive accumulating
snow, while lower valleys like Orofino and Riggins will primarily
remain rain.

Saturday night the systems will move out of the area causing
skies to clear. This clearing should allow temperatures to drop
significantly with many valley locations across western Montana
being in the single digits and below zero. North central Idaho
should cool to the 20s and 30s. The combination of rain changing
to snow followed by very cold temperatures could cause hazardous
driving conditions throughout the weekend.

The models are indicating that the Northern Rockies should
transition to a more westerly flow pattern by next week. This
pattern should allow temperatures to slowly moderate with periodic
disturbances causing showers through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain and snow continue across the area. Ample
moisture with the continuing precipitation and near record amounts
of precipitation over the last 24 hours will make fog a risk
throughout the night. Normally the clouds would prevent
significant fog, but there is so much moisture with rain and snow
on the ground that even a little cooling could cause fog to form.
The risk of fog will actually decrease closer to the morning (12Z)
as a southerly pressure gradient causes winds to increase, making
low stratus more likely. Terminals KMSO and KGPI are most likely
to be affected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 262126
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...Warmer conditions will persist throughout the night
tonight, with many valleys not even reaching freezing in western
Montana and central Idaho. The ample moisture over the last 24
hours, near record rainfall in many locations and record rainfall
in yesterday in Butte, has primed the atmosphere for fog. Cloud
cover and an increasing southerly wind will be working against the
fog, and may cause it to lift to a low stratus cloud deck by
morning. But there is so much moisture with snow on the ground at
least patchy fog is likely.

Glacier National Park and Marias pass will continue to get snow
through this evening. Precipitation is likely to continue there
through Thanksgiving and Friday, though it has lightened and become
less of an impact, so the warning has been cancelled.

Thanksgiving will be warmer with highs in the 40s across much of
the region with continued light rain and snow, mainly over the
mountains and in northwest Montana.

The models are still in agreement with a change in the weather for
this coming holiday weekend. A plume of moisture will be
streaming into the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. Snow
levels will be fairly high during the onset of precipitation
causing mainly rain in the valleys and snow being confined to the
higher terrain. An arctic will push into northwest Montana Friday
night over the continental divide. This arctic front will cause
snow levels to crash to valley floors and also enhance snowfall
rates. Areas north of the I-90 corridor could receive significant
snow amounts. The combination of snow and strong easterly winds
could cause areas of blowing snow. The arctic will finish pushing
across western Montana on Saturday, but the interaction with the
moisture does not appear to be as significant. While the arctic
pushes into western Montana, a Pacific cold front will move into
north central Idaho causing snow levels to lower and bring in a
cooler airmass. Areas above 3000 feet should receive accumulating
snow, while lower valleys like Orofino and Riggins will primarily
remain rain.

Saturday night the systems will move out of the area causing
skies to clear. This clearing should allow temperatures to drop
significantly with many valley locations across western Montana
being in the single digits and below zero. North central Idaho
should cool to the 20s and 30s. The combination of rain changing
to snow followed by very cold temperatures could cause hazardous
driving conditions throughout the weekend.

The models are indicating that the Northern Rockies should
transition to a more westerly flow pattern by next week. This
pattern should allow temperatures to slowly moderate with periodic
disturbances causing showers through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain and snow continue across the area. Ample
moisture with the continuing precipitation and near record amounts
of precipitation over the last 24 hours will make fog a risk
throughout the night. Normally the clouds would prevent
significant fog, but there is so much moisture with rain and snow
on the ground that even a little cooling could cause fog to form.
The risk of fog will actually decrease closer to the morning (12Z)
as a southerly pressure gradient causes winds to increase, making
low stratus more likely. Terminals KMSO and KGPI are most likely
to be affected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 262126
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...Warmer conditions will persist throughout the night
tonight, with many valleys not even reaching freezing in western
Montana and central Idaho. The ample moisture over the last 24
hours, near record rainfall in many locations and record rainfall
in yesterday in Butte, has primed the atmosphere for fog. Cloud
cover and an increasing southerly wind will be working against the
fog, and may cause it to lift to a low stratus cloud deck by
morning. But there is so much moisture with snow on the ground at
least patchy fog is likely.

Glacier National Park and Marias pass will continue to get snow
through this evening. Precipitation is likely to continue there
through Thanksgiving and Friday, though it has lightened and become
less of an impact, so the warning has been cancelled.

Thanksgiving will be warmer with highs in the 40s across much of
the region with continued light rain and snow, mainly over the
mountains and in northwest Montana.

The models are still in agreement with a change in the weather for
this coming holiday weekend. A plume of moisture will be
streaming into the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. Snow
levels will be fairly high during the onset of precipitation
causing mainly rain in the valleys and snow being confined to the
higher terrain. An arctic will push into northwest Montana Friday
night over the continental divide. This arctic front will cause
snow levels to crash to valley floors and also enhance snowfall
rates. Areas north of the I-90 corridor could receive significant
snow amounts. The combination of snow and strong easterly winds
could cause areas of blowing snow. The arctic will finish pushing
across western Montana on Saturday, but the interaction with the
moisture does not appear to be as significant. While the arctic
pushes into western Montana, a Pacific cold front will move into
north central Idaho causing snow levels to lower and bring in a
cooler airmass. Areas above 3000 feet should receive accumulating
snow, while lower valleys like Orofino and Riggins will primarily
remain rain.

Saturday night the systems will move out of the area causing
skies to clear. This clearing should allow temperatures to drop
significantly with many valley locations across western Montana
being in the single digits and below zero. North central Idaho
should cool to the 20s and 30s. The combination of rain changing
to snow followed by very cold temperatures could cause hazardous
driving conditions throughout the weekend.

The models are indicating that the Northern Rockies should
transition to a more westerly flow pattern by next week. This
pattern should allow temperatures to slowly moderate with periodic
disturbances causing showers through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain and snow continue across the area. Ample
moisture with the continuing precipitation and near record amounts
of precipitation over the last 24 hours will make fog a risk
throughout the night. Normally the clouds would prevent
significant fog, but there is so much moisture with rain and snow
on the ground that even a little cooling could cause fog to form.
The risk of fog will actually decrease closer to the morning (12Z)
as a southerly pressure gradient causes winds to increase, making
low stratus more likely. Terminals KMSO and KGPI are most likely
to be affected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 262126
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...Warmer conditions will persist throughout the night
tonight, with many valleys not even reaching freezing in western
Montana and central Idaho. The ample moisture over the last 24
hours, near record rainfall in many locations and record rainfall
in yesterday in Butte, has primed the atmosphere for fog. Cloud
cover and an increasing southerly wind will be working against the
fog, and may cause it to lift to a low stratus cloud deck by
morning. But there is so much moisture with snow on the ground at
least patchy fog is likely.

Glacier National Park and Marias pass will continue to get snow
through this evening. Precipitation is likely to continue there
through Thanksgiving and Friday, though it has lightened and become
less of an impact, so the warning has been cancelled.

Thanksgiving will be warmer with highs in the 40s across much of
the region with continued light rain and snow, mainly over the
mountains and in northwest Montana.

The models are still in agreement with a change in the weather for
this coming holiday weekend. A plume of moisture will be
streaming into the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. Snow
levels will be fairly high during the onset of precipitation
causing mainly rain in the valleys and snow being confined to the
higher terrain. An arctic will push into northwest Montana Friday
night over the continental divide. This arctic front will cause
snow levels to crash to valley floors and also enhance snowfall
rates. Areas north of the I-90 corridor could receive significant
snow amounts. The combination of snow and strong easterly winds
could cause areas of blowing snow. The arctic will finish pushing
across western Montana on Saturday, but the interaction with the
moisture does not appear to be as significant. While the arctic
pushes into western Montana, a Pacific cold front will move into
north central Idaho causing snow levels to lower and bring in a
cooler airmass. Areas above 3000 feet should receive accumulating
snow, while lower valleys like Orofino and Riggins will primarily
remain rain.

Saturday night the systems will move out of the area causing
skies to clear. This clearing should allow temperatures to drop
significantly with many valley locations across western Montana
being in the single digits and below zero. North central Idaho
should cool to the 20s and 30s. The combination of rain changing
to snow followed by very cold temperatures could cause hazardous
driving conditions throughout the weekend.

The models are indicating that the Northern Rockies should
transition to a more westerly flow pattern by next week. This
pattern should allow temperatures to slowly moderate with periodic
disturbances causing showers through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain and snow continue across the area. Ample
moisture with the continuing precipitation and near record amounts
of precipitation over the last 24 hours will make fog a risk
throughout the night. Normally the clouds would prevent
significant fog, but there is so much moisture with rain and snow
on the ground that even a little cooling could cause fog to form.
The risk of fog will actually decrease closer to the morning (12Z)
as a southerly pressure gradient causes winds to increase, making
low stratus more likely. Terminals KMSO and KGPI are most likely
to be affected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 262126
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...Warmer conditions will persist throughout the night
tonight, with many valleys not even reaching freezing in western
Montana and central Idaho. The ample moisture over the last 24
hours, near record rainfall in many locations and record rainfall
in yesterday in Butte, has primed the atmosphere for fog. Cloud
cover and an increasing southerly wind will be working against the
fog, and may cause it to lift to a low stratus cloud deck by
morning. But there is so much moisture with snow on the ground at
least patchy fog is likely.

Glacier National Park and Marias pass will continue to get snow
through this evening. Precipitation is likely to continue there
through Thanksgiving and Friday, though it has lightened and become
less of an impact, so the warning has been cancelled.

Thanksgiving will be warmer with highs in the 40s across much of
the region with continued light rain and snow, mainly over the
mountains and in northwest Montana.

The models are still in agreement with a change in the weather for
this coming holiday weekend. A plume of moisture will be
streaming into the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. Snow
levels will be fairly high during the onset of precipitation
causing mainly rain in the valleys and snow being confined to the
higher terrain. An arctic will push into northwest Montana Friday
night over the continental divide. This arctic front will cause
snow levels to crash to valley floors and also enhance snowfall
rates. Areas north of the I-90 corridor could receive significant
snow amounts. The combination of snow and strong easterly winds
could cause areas of blowing snow. The arctic will finish pushing
across western Montana on Saturday, but the interaction with the
moisture does not appear to be as significant. While the arctic
pushes into western Montana, a Pacific cold front will move into
north central Idaho causing snow levels to lower and bring in a
cooler airmass. Areas above 3000 feet should receive accumulating
snow, while lower valleys like Orofino and Riggins will primarily
remain rain.

Saturday night the systems will move out of the area causing
skies to clear. This clearing should allow temperatures to drop
significantly with many valley locations across western Montana
being in the single digits and below zero. North central Idaho
should cool to the 20s and 30s. The combination of rain changing
to snow followed by very cold temperatures could cause hazardous
driving conditions throughout the weekend.

The models are indicating that the Northern Rockies should
transition to a more westerly flow pattern by next week. This
pattern should allow temperatures to slowly moderate with periodic
disturbances causing showers through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain and snow continue across the area. Ample
moisture with the continuing precipitation and near record amounts
of precipitation over the last 24 hours will make fog a risk
throughout the night. Normally the clouds would prevent
significant fog, but there is so much moisture with rain and snow
on the ground that even a little cooling could cause fog to form.
The risk of fog will actually decrease closer to the morning (12Z)
as a southerly pressure gradient causes winds to increase, making
low stratus more likely. Terminals KMSO and KGPI are most likely
to be affected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 262126
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...Warmer conditions will persist throughout the night
tonight, with many valleys not even reaching freezing in western
Montana and central Idaho. The ample moisture over the last 24
hours, near record rainfall in many locations and record rainfall
in yesterday in Butte, has primed the atmosphere for fog. Cloud
cover and an increasing southerly wind will be working against the
fog, and may cause it to lift to a low stratus cloud deck by
morning. But there is so much moisture with snow on the ground at
least patchy fog is likely.

Glacier National Park and Marias pass will continue to get snow
through this evening. Precipitation is likely to continue there
through Thanksgiving and Friday, though it has lightened and become
less of an impact, so the warning has been cancelled.

Thanksgiving will be warmer with highs in the 40s across much of
the region with continued light rain and snow, mainly over the
mountains and in northwest Montana.

The models are still in agreement with a change in the weather for
this coming holiday weekend. A plume of moisture will be
streaming into the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. Snow
levels will be fairly high during the onset of precipitation
causing mainly rain in the valleys and snow being confined to the
higher terrain. An arctic will push into northwest Montana Friday
night over the continental divide. This arctic front will cause
snow levels to crash to valley floors and also enhance snowfall
rates. Areas north of the I-90 corridor could receive significant
snow amounts. The combination of snow and strong easterly winds
could cause areas of blowing snow. The arctic will finish pushing
across western Montana on Saturday, but the interaction with the
moisture does not appear to be as significant. While the arctic
pushes into western Montana, a Pacific cold front will move into
north central Idaho causing snow levels to lower and bring in a
cooler airmass. Areas above 3000 feet should receive accumulating
snow, while lower valleys like Orofino and Riggins will primarily
remain rain.

Saturday night the systems will move out of the area causing
skies to clear. This clearing should allow temperatures to drop
significantly with many valley locations across western Montana
being in the single digits and below zero. North central Idaho
should cool to the 20s and 30s. The combination of rain changing
to snow followed by very cold temperatures could cause hazardous
driving conditions throughout the weekend.

The models are indicating that the Northern Rockies should
transition to a more westerly flow pattern by next week. This
pattern should allow temperatures to slowly moderate with periodic
disturbances causing showers through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain and snow continue across the area. Ample
moisture with the continuing precipitation and near record amounts
of precipitation over the last 24 hours will make fog a risk
throughout the night. Normally the clouds would prevent
significant fog, but there is so much moisture with rain and snow
on the ground that even a little cooling could cause fog to form.
The risk of fog will actually decrease closer to the morning (12Z)
as a southerly pressure gradient causes winds to increase, making
low stratus more likely. Terminals KMSO and KGPI are most likely
to be affected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261926
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1225 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...

Update at 1225 pm...Snow has diminished in Gallatin County, so have
removed it from the Winter Storm Warning. Light to moderate snow
continues across much of North Central and Central Montana into this
afternoon, so have increased POPs to categorical across much of this
area. However, light downsloping winds right along the Rocky
Mountain Front is preventing significant snowfall there, so have
left in slightly lower POPs there.
Coulston

Update from 952 am...Earlier updated to drop the winter weather
advisory for the western portions of southwest Montana as snow has
stopped. Also for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of
this morning and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a
little. With recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and
Helena for today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
The band of light to moderate snow with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will continue to move north over Central and
North Central Montana. The back edge of this band, currently between
KBTM and KHLN and associated with a northwest to southeast oriented
frontal boundary, will likely move through KHLN by 20Z, KGTF/KLWT by
22Z, KCTB by 02Z, and KHVR by 09Z. Conditions will generally improve
to VFR behind this boundary with increasing southwesterly
downsloping winds, but lingering showers may obscure mountain tops.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 261926
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1225 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...

Update at 1225 pm...Snow has diminished in Gallatin County, so have
removed it from the Winter Storm Warning. Light to moderate snow
continues across much of North Central and Central Montana into this
afternoon, so have increased POPs to categorical across much of this
area. However, light downsloping winds right along the Rocky
Mountain Front is preventing significant snowfall there, so have
left in slightly lower POPs there.
Coulston

Update from 952 am...Earlier updated to drop the winter weather
advisory for the western portions of southwest Montana as snow has
stopped. Also for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of
this morning and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a
little. With recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and
Helena for today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
The band of light to moderate snow with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will continue to move north over Central and
North Central Montana. The back edge of this band, currently between
KBTM and KHLN and associated with a northwest to southeast oriented
frontal boundary, will likely move through KHLN by 20Z, KGTF/KLWT by
22Z, KCTB by 02Z, and KHVR by 09Z. Conditions will generally improve
to VFR behind this boundary with increasing southwesterly
downsloping winds, but lingering showers may obscure mountain tops.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261906
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1206 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON
AND BIG TIMBER AREAS. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
ARE SCOURING OUT COLD AIR AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END
THERE. EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR WHEATLAND COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM BASED ON
SPOTTER REPORTS AND MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION HOLDING IN THERE
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AND BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS STARTING AT 9 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SEEING SOME ENHANCED SNOW ON RADAR
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFYING ALOFT SO STILL LOOKING AT AN
INCH OR TWO MORE SNOW IN MANY AREAS. ROADS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE TO COVER SNOW AND SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
TO MIXED PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM BILLINGS EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SFC AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION
WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD DESPITE SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED OVER THE EAST.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN IN THE GAP AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THIS PERIOD OF WIND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EASTWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT IN NEED FOR
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD...AM CONCERNED THAT WILL MUDDY THE
WATERS WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUANTITY OF
SNOW IN THESE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING
AT EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING...OR TRANSITIONING INTO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50 IN A FEW AREAS AS A COUPLE OF DAYS
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PUT A DENT IN REGIONAL SNOW COVER AND WIND
AIDS THE PROCESS. COULD BE ONGOING GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THAT TO SLACKEN.

MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC COMES IN TWO PIECES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WANTS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SECOND SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE
DOES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AND SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER 20 DEGREES COLDER AND MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS. HOW COLD SUNDAY MORNING GETS
IS STILL UNSURE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSER TO ZERO IN MANY AREAS. ONE EXCEPTION
IS JUDITH GAP WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RECEDE FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.

COLD RETREATS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THIS TROUGH COULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT
LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD SHOWERS AND LITTLE MOISTURE.
A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E. KMLS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER KLVM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55
KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 030/048 036/049 021/027 000/011 000/031 022/037
    9/S 41/N    00/B    24/J    42/J    11/B    12/W
LVM 040 037/049 039/049 029/032 005/018 010/036 027/037
    3/O 21/N    11/N    35/J    42/J    21/N    12/W
HDN 034 023/047 032/050 018/030 000/014 901/031 018/039
    9/S 61/B    00/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    12/W
MLS 029 021/043 030/046 014/020 903/010 903/026 015/033
    8/S 93/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 032 020/047 031/050 019/030 003/014 001/033 020/038
    7/S 61/E    11/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    11/B
BHK 028 016/037 028/043 016/021 902/009 902/025 014/032
    6/S 63/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    11/N
SHR 034 023/048 033/050 024/035 006/018 005/037 021/039
    8/S 41/N    00/B    02/J    32/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-42-57-58-63.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 39-56-66>68.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
      SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261906
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1206 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON
AND BIG TIMBER AREAS. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
ARE SCOURING OUT COLD AIR AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END
THERE. EXTENDED ADVISORY FOR WHEATLAND COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM BASED ON
SPOTTER REPORTS AND MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION HOLDING IN THERE
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AND BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS STARTING AT 9 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. SEEING SOME ENHANCED SNOW ON RADAR
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFYING ALOFT SO STILL LOOKING AT AN
INCH OR TWO MORE SNOW IN MANY AREAS. ROADS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE TO COVER SNOW AND SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
TO MIXED PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM BILLINGS EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SFC AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION
WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD DESPITE SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED OVER THE EAST.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN IN THE GAP AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THIS PERIOD OF WIND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EASTWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT IN NEED FOR
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD...AM CONCERNED THAT WILL MUDDY THE
WATERS WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUANTITY OF
SNOW IN THESE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING
AT EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING...OR TRANSITIONING INTO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50 IN A FEW AREAS AS A COUPLE OF DAYS
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PUT A DENT IN REGIONAL SNOW COVER AND WIND
AIDS THE PROCESS. COULD BE ONGOING GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THAT TO SLACKEN.

MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC COMES IN TWO PIECES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WANTS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SECOND SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE
DOES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AND SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER 20 DEGREES COLDER AND MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS. HOW COLD SUNDAY MORNING GETS
IS STILL UNSURE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSER TO ZERO IN MANY AREAS. ONE EXCEPTION
IS JUDITH GAP WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RECEDE FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.

COLD RETREATS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THIS TROUGH COULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT
LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD SHOWERS AND LITTLE MOISTURE.
A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E. KMLS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER KLVM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55
KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 030/048 036/049 021/027 000/011 000/031 022/037
    9/S 41/N    00/B    24/J    42/J    11/B    12/W
LVM 040 037/049 039/049 029/032 005/018 010/036 027/037
    3/O 21/N    11/N    35/J    42/J    21/N    12/W
HDN 034 023/047 032/050 018/030 000/014 901/031 018/039
    9/S 61/B    00/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    12/W
MLS 029 021/043 030/046 014/020 903/010 903/026 015/033
    8/S 93/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 032 020/047 031/050 019/030 003/014 001/033 020/038
    7/S 61/E    11/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    11/B
BHK 028 016/037 028/043 016/021 902/009 902/025 014/032
    6/S 63/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    11/N
SHR 034 023/048 033/050 024/035 006/018 005/037 021/039
    8/S 41/N    00/B    02/J    32/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-42-57-58-63.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 39-56-66>68.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
      SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261818
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1115 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
The band of light to moderate snow with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will continue to move north over Central and
North Central Montana. The back edge of this band, currently between
KBTM and KHLN and associated with a northwest to southeast oriented
frontal boundary, will likely move through KHLN by 20Z, KGTF/KLWT by
22Z, KCTB by 02Z, and KHVR by 09Z. Conditions will generally improve
to VFR behind this boundary with increasing southwesterly
downsloping winds, but lingering showers may obscure mountain tops.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 261818
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1115 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
The band of light to moderate snow with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will continue to move north over Central and
North Central Montana. The back edge of this band, currently between
KBTM and KHLN and associated with a northwest to southeast oriented
frontal boundary, will likely move through KHLN by 20Z, KGTF/KLWT by
22Z, KCTB by 02Z, and KHVR by 09Z. Conditions will generally improve
to VFR behind this boundary with increasing southwesterly
downsloping winds, but lingering showers may obscure mountain tops.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 261818
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1115 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
The band of light to moderate snow with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will continue to move north over Central and
North Central Montana. The back edge of this band, currently between
KBTM and KHLN and associated with a northwest to southeast oriented
frontal boundary, will likely move through KHLN by 20Z, KGTF/KLWT by
22Z, KCTB by 02Z, and KHVR by 09Z. Conditions will generally improve
to VFR behind this boundary with increasing southwesterly
downsloping winds, but lingering showers may obscure mountain tops.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 261818
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1115 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.
The band of light to moderate snow with MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscuration will continue to move north over Central and
North Central Montana. The back edge of this band, currently between
KBTM and KHLN and associated with a northwest to southeast oriented
frontal boundary, will likely move through KHLN by 20Z, KGTF/KLWT by
22Z, KCTB by 02Z, and KHVR by 09Z. Conditions will generally improve
to VFR behind this boundary with increasing southwesterly
downsloping winds, but lingering showers may obscure mountain tops.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 261652
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1220Z.
A steady light snow will affect much of North Central MT through 00z
Thursday. Visibilities will generally range from 1SM to 3SM through
mid afternoon...along with IFR ceilings. The snow will end from
south to north...with conditions improving in Southwest MT by mid
afternoon. Gusty west winds will start to develop by 12z Thursday
over the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261652
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1220Z.
A steady light snow will affect much of North Central MT through 00z
Thursday. Visibilities will generally range from 1SM to 3SM through
mid afternoon...along with IFR ceilings. The snow will end from
south to north...with conditions improving in Southwest MT by mid
afternoon. Gusty west winds will start to develop by 12z Thursday
over the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261652
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1220Z.
A steady light snow will affect much of North Central MT through 00z
Thursday. Visibilities will generally range from 1SM to 3SM through
mid afternoon...along with IFR ceilings. The snow will end from
south to north...with conditions improving in Southwest MT by mid
afternoon. Gusty west winds will start to develop by 12z Thursday
over the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261652
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1220Z.
A steady light snow will affect much of North Central MT through 00z
Thursday. Visibilities will generally range from 1SM to 3SM through
mid afternoon...along with IFR ceilings. The snow will end from
south to north...with conditions improving in Southwest MT by mid
afternoon. Gusty west winds will start to develop by 12z Thursday
over the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261635
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

OVER RUNNING SNOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS
TO CROW AGENCY AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SNOW
TAPERING OFF OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND LIVINGSTON HAS SEEN SNOW TAPER OFF IN THE PAST
HOUR. AS A RESULT PLAN TO END WESTERN ADVISORIES ON TIME AT NOON
FOR WESTERN VALLEYS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND WHEATLAND COUNTY BUT WILL
GIVE IT AN HOUR OR TWO TO SEE HOW TRENDS ARE THERE. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. STILL SOME STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 700-500MB RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO
THIS EVENING. ALSO PUSHED THE WARNING OUT UNTIL 6PM FOR THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THERE BUT WILL SEE IT LIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 TO 3
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THESE AREAS. NO CHANGES TO
THE REST OF THE WINTER HIGHLITES. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AROUND NOON TO
END THOSE WESTERN ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 40S WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE CENTRAL
ZONES INCLUDING BILLINGS. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

TRAVEL IMPACTS...LOOKING AT THE METRO MODEL EXPECT ROADS ACROSS
THE AREA TO MELT OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 DEGREE RANGE BY 2 PM. WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WEST MAY SEE ROADS STAY WET TONIGHT AS WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOZEMAN HILL. FOR AREAS EAST OF
BILLINGS COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER AND ROADS LOOK TO RE-FREEZE
THIS EVENING MAKING DIFFICULT TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING FROM BILLINGS EAST AS WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHES
OVER THE COLD SURFACE LAYER...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED ROAD CONDITIONS
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLITES AT
THIS TIME.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS FROM LIVINGSTON AND NYE. ANTICIPATE THE NEED
FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL LIKELY GO ISSUE WITH THE
UPDATE AT NOON ONCE WINTER HIGHLITES ARE CANCELLED. COULD BE SOME
ISSUES AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INCLUDING
ALONG I-90 AROUND LIVINGSTON. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE TO COVER SNOW AND SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
TO MIXED PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM BILLINGS EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SFC AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION
WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD DESPITE SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED OVER THE EAST.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN IN THE GAP AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THIS PERIOD OF WIND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EASTWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT IN NEED FOR
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD...AM CONCERNED THAT WILL MUDDY THE
WATERS WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUANTITY OF
SNOW IN THESE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING
AT EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING...OR TRANSITIONING INTO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50 IN A FEW AREAS AS A COUPLE OF DAYS
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PUT A DENT IN REGIONAL SNOW COVER AND WIND
AIDS THE PROCESS. COULD BE ONGOING GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THAT TO SLACKEN.

MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC COMES IN TWO PIECES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WANTS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SECOND SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE
DOES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AND SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER 20 DEGREES COLDER AND MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS. HOW COLD SUNDAY MORNING GETS
IS STILL UNSURE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSER TO ZERO IN MANY AREAS. ONE EXCEPTION
IS JUDITH GAP WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RECEDE FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.

COLD RETREATS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THIS TROUGH COULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT
LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD SHOWERS AND LITTLE MOISTURE.
A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E. KMLS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER KLVM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55
KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 030/048 036/049 021/027 000/011 000/031 022/037
    +/S 31/B    00/B    24/J    42/J    11/B    12/W
LVM 040 037/049 039/049 029/032 005/018 010/036 027/037
    +/O 31/N    11/N    35/J    42/J    21/N    12/W
HDN 034 023/047 032/050 018/030 000/014 901/031 018/039
    +/S 41/B    00/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    12/W
MLS 029 021/043 030/046 014/020 903/010 903/026 015/033
    9/S 73/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 032 020/047 031/050 019/030 003/014 001/033 020/038
    +/S 61/E    11/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    11/B
BHK 028 016/037 028/043 016/021 902/009 902/025 014/032
    8/S 63/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    11/N
SHR 034 023/048 033/050 024/035 006/018 005/037 021/039
    +/S 21/B    00/B    02/J    32/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 39-56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261635
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

OVER RUNNING SNOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS
TO CROW AGENCY AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SNOW
TAPERING OFF OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND LIVINGSTON HAS SEEN SNOW TAPER OFF IN THE PAST
HOUR. AS A RESULT PLAN TO END WESTERN ADVISORIES ON TIME AT NOON
FOR WESTERN VALLEYS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND WHEATLAND COUNTY BUT WILL
GIVE IT AN HOUR OR TWO TO SEE HOW TRENDS ARE THERE. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. STILL SOME STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 700-500MB RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO
THIS EVENING. ALSO PUSHED THE WARNING OUT UNTIL 6PM FOR THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THERE BUT WILL SEE IT LIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 TO 3
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THESE AREAS. NO CHANGES TO
THE REST OF THE WINTER HIGHLITES. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AROUND NOON TO
END THOSE WESTERN ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 40S WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE CENTRAL
ZONES INCLUDING BILLINGS. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.

TRAVEL IMPACTS...LOOKING AT THE METRO MODEL EXPECT ROADS ACROSS
THE AREA TO MELT OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 DEGREE RANGE BY 2 PM. WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WEST MAY SEE ROADS STAY WET TONIGHT AS WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
ELEVATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOZEMAN HILL. FOR AREAS EAST OF
BILLINGS COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER AND ROADS LOOK TO RE-FREEZE
THIS EVENING MAKING DIFFICULT TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING FROM BILLINGS EAST AS WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHES
OVER THE COLD SURFACE LAYER...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED ROAD CONDITIONS
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLITES AT
THIS TIME.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS FROM LIVINGSTON AND NYE. ANTICIPATE THE NEED
FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL LIKELY GO ISSUE WITH THE
UPDATE AT NOON ONCE WINTER HIGHLITES ARE CANCELLED. COULD BE SOME
ISSUES AT LEAST INITIALLY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INCLUDING
ALONG I-90 AROUND LIVINGSTON. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE TO COVER SNOW AND SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
TO MIXED PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM BILLINGS EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SFC AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION
WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD DESPITE SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED OVER THE EAST.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN IN THE GAP AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THIS PERIOD OF WIND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EASTWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT IN NEED FOR
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD...AM CONCERNED THAT WILL MUDDY THE
WATERS WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUANTITY OF
SNOW IN THESE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING
AT EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING...OR TRANSITIONING INTO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50 IN A FEW AREAS AS A COUPLE OF DAYS
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PUT A DENT IN REGIONAL SNOW COVER AND WIND
AIDS THE PROCESS. COULD BE ONGOING GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THAT TO SLACKEN.

MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC COMES IN TWO PIECES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WANTS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SECOND SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE
DOES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AND SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER 20 DEGREES COLDER AND MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS. HOW COLD SUNDAY MORNING GETS
IS STILL UNSURE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSER TO ZERO IN MANY AREAS. ONE EXCEPTION
IS JUDITH GAP WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RECEDE FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.

COLD RETREATS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THIS TROUGH COULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT
LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD SHOWERS AND LITTLE MOISTURE.
A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E. KMLS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIFR TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WSW SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER KLVM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55
KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 030/048 036/049 021/027 000/011 000/031 022/037
    +/S 31/B    00/B    24/J    42/J    11/B    12/W
LVM 040 037/049 039/049 029/032 005/018 010/036 027/037
    +/O 31/N    11/N    35/J    42/J    21/N    12/W
HDN 034 023/047 032/050 018/030 000/014 901/031 018/039
    +/S 41/B    00/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    12/W
MLS 029 021/043 030/046 014/020 903/010 903/026 015/033
    9/S 73/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 032 020/047 031/050 019/030 003/014 001/033 020/038
    +/S 61/E    11/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    11/B
BHK 028 016/037 028/043 016/021 902/009 902/025 014/032
    8/S 63/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    11/N
SHR 034 023/048 033/050 024/035 006/018 005/037 021/039
    +/S 21/B    00/B    02/J    32/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 39-56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 261628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE POPS GIVEN ONGOING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
OVERRUN THIS FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA
AND JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
THE ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT
WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON...AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 261628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE POPS GIVEN ONGOING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
OVERRUN THIS FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA
AND JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
THE ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT
WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON...AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 261628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE POPS GIVEN ONGOING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
OVERRUN THIS FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA
AND JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
THE ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT
WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON...AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 261628
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO
INCREASE POPS GIVEN ONGOING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
OVERRUN THIS FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA
AND JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
THE ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT
WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIR-MASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIR-MASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF THE COLD AIR-MASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT...VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON...AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261218
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1220Z.
A steady light snow will affect much of North Central MT through 00z
Thursday. Visibilities will generally range from 1SM to 3SM through
mid afternoon...along with IFR ceilings. The snow will end from
south to north...with conditions improving in Southwest MT by mid
afternoon. Gusty west winds will start to develop by 12z Thursday
over the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  43  33  50  33 /  60  20  10  10
BZN  40  29  48  30 /  70  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  46  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  31  24  44  28 /  90  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Beaverhead...
Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

Avalanche Warning for the Gallatin National Forest until further
notice.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 261218
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1220Z.
A steady light snow will affect much of North Central MT through 00z
Thursday. Visibilities will generally range from 1SM to 3SM through
mid afternoon...along with IFR ceilings. The snow will end from
south to north...with conditions improving in Southwest MT by mid
afternoon. Gusty west winds will start to develop by 12z Thursday
over the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  43  33  50  33 /  60  20  10  10
BZN  40  29  48  30 /  70  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  46  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  31  24  44  28 /  90  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Beaverhead...
Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

Avalanche Warning for the Gallatin National Forest until further
notice.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 261106
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
406 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Light snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through Wednesday night
with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis. Snow will spread
farther north to KGTF and KLWT between 06z and 08z, then KCTB and
KHVR around 08z. Cigs have lowered at KHVR this evening and will
remain MVFR until snow develops. Once snow begins, conditions will
deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR conditions. By Wednesday
morning, conditions will improve at KBZN and KHLN as snow changes
back to rain before ending by midday. Across central and
north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will persist through
Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest to northeast
Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  43  33  50  33 /  60  20  10  10
BZN  40  29  48  30 /  70  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  46  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  31  24  44  28 /  90  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Beaverhead...
Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KMSO 261058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...Arctic cold front bringing much colder temperatures and
potentially heavy snow Friday night into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The band of precipitation that brought light to
moderate snow across north central Idaho and west-central/southwest
Montana overnight will continue to shift northward into northwest
Montana through the day. This will bring a gradual decrease in
precipitation from south to north, with northwest Montana
maintaining precipitation through much of the day. Snow levels
will be on the rise today, so with time valley locations will
largely change over to rain, or a rain snow mix. Valleys of
northwest Montana will remain snow the longest and thus could
continue to accumulate another 1-4 inches through early
afternoon. Travel impacts due to snow and slick roads will
continue, particularly through the morning hours, and thus winter
weather highlights will continue.

Thanksgiving continues to look to be the most mild day of the
week, with fairly warm temperatures for late November. Showers
will continue, especially across northwest Montana.

Beginning on Friday, a more complicated weather scenario will
begin to pan out. An upper level trough and Pacific cold front
will begin to move through the region. A good feed of moisture
will produce widespread precipitation, which could become
moderate to heavy at times. Initially snow levels will start
rather high, above most valley locations. However, mountain passes
look to be affected by accumulating snow during the day. By Friday
night, an arctic cold front will begin to move south out of
Canada, causing snow levels to crash to the valley floors first in
northwest Montana late Friday night, then into the rest of western
Montana and north central Idaho through the day Saturday. The
moisture feed will still be in place as snow levels crash, which
could lead to some significant snowfall amounts in the valleys
Saturday. Exact amounts are very dependent on the timing of cold
air, however widespread travel impacts are possible. In addition
to the snow, roads may also be impacted by a flash freeze of
moisture to the roadways as the cold air surges through the area.
Gusty winds may also develop for a time, causing areas of blowing
snow, lowered visibility and low wind chill values, especially
through tight canyons such as Hellgate (near Missoula) and Badrock
(near Columbia Falls).

Precipitation should largely exit the region by Sunday, however a
much colder airmass will be left in its wake. Single digits to
even below zero temperatures are possible by Sunday morning in
western Montana. Idaho will also see colder temperatures, though not
quite as cold as in Montana. Thankfully, the cold airmass is not
expected to linger for long, and we should see a gradual warm up
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow currently falling at KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM is
expected to change to rain from south to north this morning as
temperatures rise above freezing, with KGPI being the last to let
go of snow showers in the early afternoon. KSMN should hold onto
fog through the morning, and with recent moisture, patchy fog is
not out of the question for other area TAF sites. Model profiles
show the atmosphere drying somewhat during the afternoon, but
remaining moisture will keep chances for rain around for Montana
terminals throughout the day. Winds will be light, below 10kts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST early this morning ABOVE
     4000 FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 261058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...Arctic cold front bringing much colder temperatures and
potentially heavy snow Friday night into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The band of precipitation that brought light to
moderate snow across north central Idaho and west-central/southwest
Montana overnight will continue to shift northward into northwest
Montana through the day. This will bring a gradual decrease in
precipitation from south to north, with northwest Montana
maintaining precipitation through much of the day. Snow levels
will be on the rise today, so with time valley locations will
largely change over to rain, or a rain snow mix. Valleys of
northwest Montana will remain snow the longest and thus could
continue to accumulate another 1-4 inches through early
afternoon. Travel impacts due to snow and slick roads will
continue, particularly through the morning hours, and thus winter
weather highlights will continue.

Thanksgiving continues to look to be the most mild day of the
week, with fairly warm temperatures for late November. Showers
will continue, especially across northwest Montana.

Beginning on Friday, a more complicated weather scenario will
begin to pan out. An upper level trough and Pacific cold front
will begin to move through the region. A good feed of moisture
will produce widespread precipitation, which could become
moderate to heavy at times. Initially snow levels will start
rather high, above most valley locations. However, mountain passes
look to be affected by accumulating snow during the day. By Friday
night, an arctic cold front will begin to move south out of
Canada, causing snow levels to crash to the valley floors first in
northwest Montana late Friday night, then into the rest of western
Montana and north central Idaho through the day Saturday. The
moisture feed will still be in place as snow levels crash, which
could lead to some significant snowfall amounts in the valleys
Saturday. Exact amounts are very dependent on the timing of cold
air, however widespread travel impacts are possible. In addition
to the snow, roads may also be impacted by a flash freeze of
moisture to the roadways as the cold air surges through the area.
Gusty winds may also develop for a time, causing areas of blowing
snow, lowered visibility and low wind chill values, especially
through tight canyons such as Hellgate (near Missoula) and Badrock
(near Columbia Falls).

Precipitation should largely exit the region by Sunday, however a
much colder airmass will be left in its wake. Single digits to
even below zero temperatures are possible by Sunday morning in
western Montana. Idaho will also see colder temperatures, though not
quite as cold as in Montana. Thankfully, the cold airmass is not
expected to linger for long, and we should see a gradual warm up
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow currently falling at KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM is
expected to change to rain from south to north this morning as
temperatures rise above freezing, with KGPI being the last to let
go of snow showers in the early afternoon. KSMN should hold onto
fog through the morning, and with recent moisture, patchy fog is
not out of the question for other area TAF sites. Model profiles
show the atmosphere drying somewhat during the afternoon, but
remaining moisture will keep chances for rain around for Montana
terminals throughout the day. Winds will be light, below 10kts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST early this morning ABOVE
     4000 FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 261058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...Arctic cold front bringing much colder temperatures and
potentially heavy snow Friday night into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The band of precipitation that brought light to
moderate snow across north central Idaho and west-central/southwest
Montana overnight will continue to shift northward into northwest
Montana through the day. This will bring a gradual decrease in
precipitation from south to north, with northwest Montana
maintaining precipitation through much of the day. Snow levels
will be on the rise today, so with time valley locations will
largely change over to rain, or a rain snow mix. Valleys of
northwest Montana will remain snow the longest and thus could
continue to accumulate another 1-4 inches through early
afternoon. Travel impacts due to snow and slick roads will
continue, particularly through the morning hours, and thus winter
weather highlights will continue.

Thanksgiving continues to look to be the most mild day of the
week, with fairly warm temperatures for late November. Showers
will continue, especially across northwest Montana.

Beginning on Friday, a more complicated weather scenario will
begin to pan out. An upper level trough and Pacific cold front
will begin to move through the region. A good feed of moisture
will produce widespread precipitation, which could become
moderate to heavy at times. Initially snow levels will start
rather high, above most valley locations. However, mountain passes
look to be affected by accumulating snow during the day. By Friday
night, an arctic cold front will begin to move south out of
Canada, causing snow levels to crash to the valley floors first in
northwest Montana late Friday night, then into the rest of western
Montana and north central Idaho through the day Saturday. The
moisture feed will still be in place as snow levels crash, which
could lead to some significant snowfall amounts in the valleys
Saturday. Exact amounts are very dependent on the timing of cold
air, however widespread travel impacts are possible. In addition
to the snow, roads may also be impacted by a flash freeze of
moisture to the roadways as the cold air surges through the area.
Gusty winds may also develop for a time, causing areas of blowing
snow, lowered visibility and low wind chill values, especially
through tight canyons such as Hellgate (near Missoula) and Badrock
(near Columbia Falls).

Precipitation should largely exit the region by Sunday, however a
much colder airmass will be left in its wake. Single digits to
even below zero temperatures are possible by Sunday morning in
western Montana. Idaho will also see colder temperatures, though not
quite as cold as in Montana. Thankfully, the cold airmass is not
expected to linger for long, and we should see a gradual warm up
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow currently falling at KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM is
expected to change to rain from south to north this morning as
temperatures rise above freezing, with KGPI being the last to let
go of snow showers in the early afternoon. KSMN should hold onto
fog through the morning, and with recent moisture, patchy fog is
not out of the question for other area TAF sites. Model profiles
show the atmosphere drying somewhat during the afternoon, but
remaining moisture will keep chances for rain around for Montana
terminals throughout the day. Winds will be light, below 10kts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST early this morning ABOVE
     4000 FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 261058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...Arctic cold front bringing much colder temperatures and
potentially heavy snow Friday night into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The band of precipitation that brought light to
moderate snow across north central Idaho and west-central/southwest
Montana overnight will continue to shift northward into northwest
Montana through the day. This will bring a gradual decrease in
precipitation from south to north, with northwest Montana
maintaining precipitation through much of the day. Snow levels
will be on the rise today, so with time valley locations will
largely change over to rain, or a rain snow mix. Valleys of
northwest Montana will remain snow the longest and thus could
continue to accumulate another 1-4 inches through early
afternoon. Travel impacts due to snow and slick roads will
continue, particularly through the morning hours, and thus winter
weather highlights will continue.

Thanksgiving continues to look to be the most mild day of the
week, with fairly warm temperatures for late November. Showers
will continue, especially across northwest Montana.

Beginning on Friday, a more complicated weather scenario will
begin to pan out. An upper level trough and Pacific cold front
will begin to move through the region. A good feed of moisture
will produce widespread precipitation, which could become
moderate to heavy at times. Initially snow levels will start
rather high, above most valley locations. However, mountain passes
look to be affected by accumulating snow during the day. By Friday
night, an arctic cold front will begin to move south out of
Canada, causing snow levels to crash to the valley floors first in
northwest Montana late Friday night, then into the rest of western
Montana and north central Idaho through the day Saturday. The
moisture feed will still be in place as snow levels crash, which
could lead to some significant snowfall amounts in the valleys
Saturday. Exact amounts are very dependent on the timing of cold
air, however widespread travel impacts are possible. In addition
to the snow, roads may also be impacted by a flash freeze of
moisture to the roadways as the cold air surges through the area.
Gusty winds may also develop for a time, causing areas of blowing
snow, lowered visibility and low wind chill values, especially
through tight canyons such as Hellgate (near Missoula) and Badrock
(near Columbia Falls).

Precipitation should largely exit the region by Sunday, however a
much colder airmass will be left in its wake. Single digits to
even below zero temperatures are possible by Sunday morning in
western Montana. Idaho will also see colder temperatures, though not
quite as cold as in Montana. Thankfully, the cold airmass is not
expected to linger for long, and we should see a gradual warm up
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow currently falling at KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM is
expected to change to rain from south to north this morning as
temperatures rise above freezing, with KGPI being the last to let
go of snow showers in the early afternoon. KSMN should hold onto
fog through the morning, and with recent moisture, patchy fog is
not out of the question for other area TAF sites. Model profiles
show the atmosphere drying somewhat during the afternoon, but
remaining moisture will keep chances for rain around for Montana
terminals throughout the day. Winds will be light, below 10kts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST early this morning ABOVE
     4000 FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261041
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE TO COVER SNOW AND SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
TO MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL FROM BILLINGS EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SFC
AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL
DRIVE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD DESPITE SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED
OVER THE EAST.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN IN THE GAP AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THIS PERIOD OF WIND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EASTWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT IN NEED FOR
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD...AM CONCERNED THAT WILL MUDDY THE
WATERS WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUANTITY OF
SNOW IN THESE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING
AT EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING...OR TRANSITIONING INTO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

AAG


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50 IN A FEW AREAS AS A COUPLE OF DAYS
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PUT A DENT IN REGIONAL SNOW COVER AND WIND
AIDS THE PROCESS. COULD BE ONGOING GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THAT TO SLACKEN.

MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC COMES IN TWO PIECES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WANTS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SECOND SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE
DOES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AND SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER 20 DEGREES COLDER AND MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS. HOW COLD SUNDAY MORNING GETS
IS STILL UNSURE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSER TO ZERO IN MANY AREAS. ONE EXCEPTION
IS JUDITH GAP WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RECEDE FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.

COLD RETREATS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THIS TROUGH COULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT
LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD SHOWERS AND LITTLE MOISTURE.
A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM AND KBIL UNTIL LATE
MORNING. KSHR WILL SEE DECREASING CONDITIONS AFTER 1200 UTC WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. KMLS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 030/048 036/049 021/027 000/011 000/031 022/037
    +/S 31/B    00/B    24/J    42/J    11/B    12/W
LVM 040 037/049 039/049 029/032 005/018 010/036 027/037
    6/O 31/N    11/N    35/J    42/J    21/N    12/W
HDN 034 023/047 032/050 018/030 000/014 901/031 018/039
    +/S 41/B    00/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    12/W
MLS 029 021/043 030/046 014/020 903/010 903/026 015/033
    8/S 73/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 032 020/047 031/050 019/030 003/014 001/033 020/038
    7/S 61/E    11/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    11/B
BHK 024 016/037 028/043 016/021 902/009 902/025 014/032
    5/S 63/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    11/N
SHR 034 023/048 033/050 024/035 006/018 005/037 021/039
    9/S 21/B    00/B    02/J    32/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261041
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.
HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE TO COVER SNOW AND SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING.

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION
TO MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL FROM BILLINGS EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SFC
AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL
DRIVE HIGH TEMPS UPWARD DESPITE SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED
OVER THE EAST.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN IN THE GAP AREAS AS WELL AS THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THIS PERIOD OF WIND WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EASTWARD...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FEEL CONFIDENT IN NEED FOR
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD...AM CONCERNED THAT WILL MUDDY THE
WATERS WITH CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUANTITY OF
SNOW IN THESE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS...WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING
AT EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING...OR TRANSITIONING INTO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.

AAG


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 50 IN A FEW AREAS AS A COUPLE OF DAYS
ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PUT A DENT IN REGIONAL SNOW COVER AND WIND
AIDS THE PROCESS. COULD BE ONGOING GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE INSTABILITY
GENERATED BY THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THAT TO SLACKEN.

MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC COMES IN TWO PIECES WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WANTS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SECOND SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND MODELS SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE
DOES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AND SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ANOTHER 20 DEGREES COLDER AND MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS. HOW COLD SUNDAY MORNING GETS
IS STILL UNSURE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER BUT SUSPECT MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSER TO ZERO IN MANY AREAS. ONE EXCEPTION
IS JUDITH GAP WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD RECEDE FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO.

COLD RETREATS ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THIS TROUGH COULD REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT
LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD SHOWERS AND LITTLE MOISTURE.
A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM AND KBIL UNTIL LATE
MORNING. KSHR WILL SEE DECREASING CONDITIONS AFTER 1200 UTC WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. KMLS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 030/048 036/049 021/027 000/011 000/031 022/037
    +/S 31/B    00/B    24/J    42/J    11/B    12/W
LVM 040 037/049 039/049 029/032 005/018 010/036 027/037
    6/O 31/N    11/N    35/J    42/J    21/N    12/W
HDN 034 023/047 032/050 018/030 000/014 901/031 018/039
    +/S 41/B    00/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    12/W
MLS 029 021/043 030/046 014/020 903/010 903/026 015/033
    8/S 73/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    12/W
4BQ 032 020/047 031/050 019/030 003/014 001/033 020/038
    7/S 61/E    11/B    12/J    32/J    11/B    11/B
BHK 024 016/037 028/043 016/021 902/009 902/025 014/032
    5/S 63/W    11/B    13/J    31/B    11/B    11/N
SHR 034 023/048 033/050 024/035 006/018 005/037 021/039
    9/S 21/B    00/B    02/J    32/J    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONES 29>31-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 260950
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THIS
FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA AND
JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT WILL BE
ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIRMASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH IT
SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... CENTER O THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD... CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY... A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE
CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT... VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON... AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 260950
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THIS
FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA AND
JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT WILL BE
ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIRMASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH IT
SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... CENTER O THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD... CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY... A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE
CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT... VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON... AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 260950
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THIS
FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA AND
JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT WILL BE
ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIRMASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH IT
SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... CENTER O THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD... CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY... A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE
CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT... VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON... AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 260950
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THIS
FRONT AND BRING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA... THE SNOW TODAY WILL FALL MAINLY WEST OF MALTA AND
JORDAN. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR ONE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING TODAY AS IT WILL BE
ON THE FRINGES OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY TAKING THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT
THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT MOVES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY MORNING... THE AREA OF OVERRUNNING MIXED PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE... WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... POSSIBLY RAIN IN AREAS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN AREAS THAT WILL BE WARM ALOFT BUT IN THE
20S AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF ICING. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

THAT BAND OF MIXED PRECIP FINALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE OR LESS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A STRONG BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CANADA. AN ESPECIALLY DEEP AND VIGOROUS TROUGH
EXTENSION SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. A RELATIVELY
WARMER BROAD RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. NORTHEAST
MONTANA SETS AT THE EDGE OF THESE TWO LARGE AIRMASSES IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SHARPENED FRONTAL GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW HAS
SET UP CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
TROUGH OFF SHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION BRING IN WITH IT
SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
NEGATIVE 20S CELSIUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... CENTER O THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD
SLUMP OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HERE SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR POPS TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND THEREFORE MENTION.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CHINOOK WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY ONWARD... CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT BREAKS DOWN. MODELS
HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME BUT HAVE A 24
HOURS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING. BY WEDNESDAY... A LARGER AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING YET ANOTHER WARM-UP. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR TO IFR.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KGGW AND KGDV. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE
CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR WITH DROPS BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. MORE
PERSISTENT CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
CYCLE WITH CONTIGUOUS SNOW FALL.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO P6SM QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND OR UNDER 10KT... VEERING TO
THE EAST BY NOON... AND THEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Light snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through Wednesday night
with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis. Snow will spread
farther north to KGTF and KLWT between 06z and 08z, then KCTB and
KHVR around 08z. Cigs have lowered at KHVR this evening and will
remain MVFR until snow develops. Once snow begins, conditions will
deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR conditions. By Wednesday
morning, conditions will improve at KBZN and KHLN as snow changes
back to rain before ending by midday. Across central and
north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will persist through
Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest to northeast
Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls














000
FXUS65 KTFX 260545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Light snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through Wednesday night
with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis. Snow will spread
farther north to KGTF and KLWT between 06z and 08z, then KCTB and
KHVR around 08z. Cigs have lowered at KHVR this evening and will
remain MVFR until snow develops. Once snow begins, conditions will
deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR conditions. By Wednesday
morning, conditions will improve at KBZN and KHLN as snow changes
back to rain before ending by midday. Across central and
north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will persist through
Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest to northeast
Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls














000
FXUS65 KTFX 260545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Light snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through Wednesday night
with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis. Snow will spread
farther north to KGTF and KLWT between 06z and 08z, then KCTB and
KHVR around 08z. Cigs have lowered at KHVR this evening and will
remain MVFR until snow develops. Once snow begins, conditions will
deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR conditions. By Wednesday
morning, conditions will improve at KBZN and KHLN as snow changes
back to rain before ending by midday. Across central and
north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will persist through
Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest to northeast
Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls














000
FXUS65 KTFX 260545
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Light snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through Wednesday night
with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis. Snow will spread
farther north to KGTF and KLWT between 06z and 08z, then KCTB and
KHVR around 08z. Cigs have lowered at KHVR this evening and will
remain MVFR until snow develops. Once snow begins, conditions will
deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR conditions. By Wednesday
morning, conditions will improve at KBZN and KHLN as snow changes
back to rain before ending by midday. Across central and
north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will persist through
Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest to northeast
Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls














000
FXUS65 KMSO 260449
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
949 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...Extended the Winter Weather Advisory above 4000ft for
central Idaho. Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for western
Lemhi County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite depiction of the precipitation
across west central Montana is starting to show a more scattered
appearance over the Bitterroot Valley. So the steady snowfall
experienced since earlier this afternoon should start to become
more showery in nature, which will also help the snow level to
ever so slowly rise overnight and transition snow back into a
rain/snow mix. It would appear the Missoula Valley is in store for
a few more hours of steady, large flaked snow as the heavier, more
steady area of precipitation slowly drifts north. But by the
middle of the night the snow level should lift and produce a
light rain/snow mix through the dawn hours.

Over central Idaho the advection of warm air has been slower than
previously forecast, largely due to the persistence of
precipitation this evening. With travel impacts anticipated to
persist overnight, even after the snow has ceased, we have
decided to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for central Idaho,
including Lolo Pass. Winter Weather Advisories currently in
effect appear sufficient for the situation, so they shall continue
as previously issued.

The only exception exists in western Lemhi County where rising
snow level and decreasing precipitation intensity over the past
few hours have significantly reduced the potential for weather
related impacts. Thus the Advisory was cancelled early.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest precipitation during
the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST Wednesday ABOVE 4000 FEET
     for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 260449
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
949 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...Extended the Winter Weather Advisory above 4000ft for
central Idaho. Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for western
Lemhi County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite depiction of the precipitation
across west central Montana is starting to show a more scattered
appearance over the Bitterroot Valley. So the steady snowfall
experienced since earlier this afternoon should start to become
more showery in nature, which will also help the snow level to
ever so slowly rise overnight and transition snow back into a
rain/snow mix. It would appear the Missoula Valley is in store for
a few more hours of steady, large flaked snow as the heavier, more
steady area of precipitation slowly drifts north. But by the
middle of the night the snow level should lift and produce a
light rain/snow mix through the dawn hours.

Over central Idaho the advection of warm air has been slower than
previously forecast, largely due to the persistence of
precipitation this evening. With travel impacts anticipated to
persist overnight, even after the snow has ceased, we have
decided to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for central Idaho,
including Lolo Pass. Winter Weather Advisories currently in
effect appear sufficient for the situation, so they shall continue
as previously issued.

The only exception exists in western Lemhi County where rising
snow level and decreasing precipitation intensity over the past
few hours have significantly reduced the potential for weather
related impacts. Thus the Advisory was cancelled early.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest precipitation during
the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST Wednesday ABOVE 4000 FEET
     for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 260449
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
949 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...Extended the Winter Weather Advisory above 4000ft for
central Idaho. Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for western
Lemhi County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite depiction of the precipitation
across west central Montana is starting to show a more scattered
appearance over the Bitterroot Valley. So the steady snowfall
experienced since earlier this afternoon should start to become
more showery in nature, which will also help the snow level to
ever so slowly rise overnight and transition snow back into a
rain/snow mix. It would appear the Missoula Valley is in store for
a few more hours of steady, large flaked snow as the heavier, more
steady area of precipitation slowly drifts north. But by the
middle of the night the snow level should lift and produce a
light rain/snow mix through the dawn hours.

Over central Idaho the advection of warm air has been slower than
previously forecast, largely due to the persistence of
precipitation this evening. With travel impacts anticipated to
persist overnight, even after the snow has ceased, we have
decided to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for central Idaho,
including Lolo Pass. Winter Weather Advisories currently in
effect appear sufficient for the situation, so they shall continue
as previously issued.

The only exception exists in western Lemhi County where rising
snow level and decreasing precipitation intensity over the past
few hours have significantly reduced the potential for weather
related impacts. Thus the Advisory was cancelled early.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest precipitation during
the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST Wednesday ABOVE 4000 FEET
     for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 260449
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
949 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...Extended the Winter Weather Advisory above 4000ft for
central Idaho. Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for western
Lemhi County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite depiction of the precipitation
across west central Montana is starting to show a more scattered
appearance over the Bitterroot Valley. So the steady snowfall
experienced since earlier this afternoon should start to become
more showery in nature, which will also help the snow level to
ever so slowly rise overnight and transition snow back into a
rain/snow mix. It would appear the Missoula Valley is in store for
a few more hours of steady, large flaked snow as the heavier, more
steady area of precipitation slowly drifts north. But by the
middle of the night the snow level should lift and produce a
light rain/snow mix through the dawn hours.

Over central Idaho the advection of warm air has been slower than
previously forecast, largely due to the persistence of
precipitation this evening. With travel impacts anticipated to
persist overnight, even after the snow has ceased, we have
decided to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for central Idaho,
including Lolo Pass. Winter Weather Advisories currently in
effect appear sufficient for the situation, so they shall continue
as previously issued.

The only exception exists in western Lemhi County where rising
snow level and decreasing precipitation intensity over the past
few hours have significantly reduced the potential for weather
related impacts. Thus the Advisory was cancelled early.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest precipitation during
the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST Wednesday ABOVE 4000 FEET
     for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260412
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 260412
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 260412
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 260412
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 260412
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 260412
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Current analysis shows main area of snow remains mostly
over the southwest counties, which is slightly further south than
forecast.  But latest satellite imagery showing some subtle hints
that the snow is beginning to taper along the MT/ID border as the
snow area lifts slowly northward.  Also seeing a more concentrated
area of moisture starting to cross the Rocky Mtn Front between
Kalispell and Cut Bank with a trajectory that should help snow
development over the central and Hiline counties tonight.  Latest
radar imagery supports that thought, as bands of light snow have
shown up over parts of Liberty/Hill/Chouteau/Cascade counties in the
last 30-60 minutes.  So have made only minor adjustment to the
forecast this evening, mainly to increase snow amounts slightly
between Bozeman and Helena.  Will keep winter advisories/warnings
unchanged for the time being, but will have to decide by 11pm
whether to extend or expire the advisory over southwest MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260345 AAB
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SNOW IS
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BILLINGS THAN THOUGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FINALLY REACH BILLINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION STILL VERY POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IN BILLINGS PROPER WILL THEN BE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TOTALS NEAR
3 INCHES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WE REDUCED POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT EAST
TO THE SNOWFALL SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. WE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE SNOWFALL
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE
WELL ON TRACK. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AROUND RED LODGE. THIS WILL
CAUSE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. THE SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT BILLINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST
IN BILLINGS TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MILES CITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    +6/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    28/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    27/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    25/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260345 AAB
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SNOW IS
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BILLINGS THAN THOUGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FINALLY REACH BILLINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION STILL VERY POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IN BILLINGS PROPER WILL THEN BE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TOTALS NEAR
3 INCHES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WE REDUCED POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT EAST
TO THE SNOWFALL SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. WE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE SNOWFALL
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE
WELL ON TRACK. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AROUND RED LODGE. THIS WILL
CAUSE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. THE SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT BILLINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST
IN BILLINGS TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MILES CITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    +6/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    28/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    27/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    25/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260345 AAB
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SNOW IS
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BILLINGS THAN THOUGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FINALLY REACH BILLINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION STILL VERY POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IN BILLINGS PROPER WILL THEN BE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TOTALS NEAR
3 INCHES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WE REDUCED POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT EAST
TO THE SNOWFALL SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. WE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE SNOWFALL
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE
WELL ON TRACK. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AROUND RED LODGE. THIS WILL
CAUSE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. THE SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT BILLINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST
IN BILLINGS TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MILES CITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    +6/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    28/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    27/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    25/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260345 AAB
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SNOW IS
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BILLINGS THAN THOUGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FINALLY REACH BILLINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION STILL VERY POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IN BILLINGS PROPER WILL THEN BE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TOTALS NEAR
3 INCHES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WE REDUCED POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT EAST
TO THE SNOWFALL SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. WE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE SNOWFALL
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE
WELL ON TRACK. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AROUND RED LODGE. THIS WILL
CAUSE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. THE SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT BILLINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST
IN BILLINGS TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MILES CITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    +6/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    28/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    27/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    25/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260345 AAB
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SNOW IS
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BILLINGS THAN THOUGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FINALLY REACH BILLINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION STILL VERY POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IN BILLINGS PROPER WILL THEN BE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TOTALS NEAR
3 INCHES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WE REDUCED POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT EAST
TO THE SNOWFALL SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. WE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE SNOWFALL
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE
WELL ON TRACK. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AROUND RED LODGE. THIS WILL
CAUSE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. THE SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT BILLINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST
IN BILLINGS TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MILES CITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    +6/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    28/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    27/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    25/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260345 AAB
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SNOW IS
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BILLINGS THAN THOUGHT.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FINALLY REACH BILLINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION STILL VERY POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IN BILLINGS PROPER WILL THEN BE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TOTALS NEAR
3 INCHES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WE REDUCED POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT EAST
TO THE SNOWFALL SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. WE
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE SNOWFALL
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST.
OUR WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE
WELL ON TRACK. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AROUND RED LODGE. THIS WILL
CAUSE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. THE SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT BILLINGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST
IN BILLINGS TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MILES CITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    +6/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    28/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    27/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    25/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 260300
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
800 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH IS THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
BRING A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH NO REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA DECIDED TO
END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY EARLY.

TONIGHT WILL BRING A MINOR LULL IN WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AS WINDS DIE OFF WHILE THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED OUT
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PETROLEUM COUNTY. BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES STREAMING IN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

EARLY WEDNESDAY WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD NOW AS A WARM
FRONT. AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER THIS BOUNDARY...CREATING
AN EFFICIENT MECHANISM FOR SNOW PRODUCTION INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY CENTERED
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND PETROLEUM COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE LOOKS ON
TRACK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH NORTH...BUT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPS REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. FZRA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGES FROM SNOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND
JUST HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE GOING WATCH FOR
THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
EVENING. SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH...CARRYING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

24-HOURS LATER...AT 00Z SATURDAY...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
DISPARITY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z
EC PLACES THAT FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE THE GFS
PLACES IT NEAR THE MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER. SO THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FRIDAY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GUIDANCE HAS A 35F
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FOR FRIDAY`S HIGHS. THEN 24 HOURS LATER AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE DIFFERENCES DISAPPEAR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
IN WYOMING. MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH INTO MONTANA AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PUSHES WELL INTO SASKATCHEWAN.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION MAY WELL
CHANGE FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW WITH A FROZEN MIX LIKELY IN
BETWEEN. THE FLUCTUATING FRONT WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE SNOWFALL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH EXTENDED PERIOD STORM SNOW
TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN GARFIELD COUNTY. BUT THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE
NOT YET CERTAIN. SATURDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH OR THE TEENS TOWARDS THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER. THE FRIGID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEMONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WARMER AIR THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY. THEN AN
ENERGETIC TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PAC-NW ON TUESDAY SENDING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE BY TUESDAY TO BRING MORE COLD AND
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OVERALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...MADE FEW GRID EDITS...
EXCEPT FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MONTANA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL
FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW...KGDV AND POSSIBLY KOLF.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERCAST STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE CYCLE.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE FAR END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION
MAY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15KT DURING THE
EVENING.... THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE
VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.
GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 260300
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
800 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH IS THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
BRING A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH NO REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA DECIDED TO
END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY EARLY.

TONIGHT WILL BRING A MINOR LULL IN WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AS WINDS DIE OFF WHILE THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED OUT
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PETROLEUM COUNTY. BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES STREAMING IN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

EARLY WEDNESDAY WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD NOW AS A WARM
FRONT. AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER THIS BOUNDARY...CREATING
AN EFFICIENT MECHANISM FOR SNOW PRODUCTION INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY CENTERED
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND PETROLEUM COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE LOOKS ON
TRACK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH NORTH...BUT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPS REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. FZRA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGES FROM SNOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND
JUST HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE GOING WATCH FOR
THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
EVENING. SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH...CARRYING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

24-HOURS LATER...AT 00Z SATURDAY...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
DISPARITY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z
EC PLACES THAT FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE THE GFS
PLACES IT NEAR THE MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER. SO THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FRIDAY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GUIDANCE HAS A 35F
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FOR FRIDAY`S HIGHS. THEN 24 HOURS LATER AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE DIFFERENCES DISAPPEAR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
IN WYOMING. MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH INTO MONTANA AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PUSHES WELL INTO SASKATCHEWAN.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION MAY WELL
CHANGE FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW WITH A FROZEN MIX LIKELY IN
BETWEEN. THE FLUCTUATING FRONT WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE SNOWFALL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH EXTENDED PERIOD STORM SNOW
TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN GARFIELD COUNTY. BUT THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE
NOT YET CERTAIN. SATURDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH OR THE TEENS TOWARDS THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER. THE FRIGID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEMONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WARMER AIR THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY. THEN AN
ENERGETIC TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PAC-NW ON TUESDAY SENDING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE BY TUESDAY TO BRING MORE COLD AND
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OVERALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...MADE FEW GRID EDITS...
EXCEPT FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MONTANA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL
FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW...KGDV AND POSSIBLY KOLF.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERCAST STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE CYCLE.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE FAR END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION
MAY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15KT DURING THE
EVENING.... THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE
VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.
GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 260300
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
800 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH IS THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
BRING A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH NO REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA DECIDED TO
END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY EARLY.

TONIGHT WILL BRING A MINOR LULL IN WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AS WINDS DIE OFF WHILE THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED OUT
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PETROLEUM COUNTY. BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES STREAMING IN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

EARLY WEDNESDAY WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD NOW AS A WARM
FRONT. AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER THIS BOUNDARY...CREATING
AN EFFICIENT MECHANISM FOR SNOW PRODUCTION INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY CENTERED
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND PETROLEUM COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE LOOKS ON
TRACK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH NORTH...BUT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPS REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. FZRA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGES FROM SNOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND
JUST HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE GOING WATCH FOR
THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
EVENING. SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH...CARRYING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

24-HOURS LATER...AT 00Z SATURDAY...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
DISPARITY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z
EC PLACES THAT FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE THE GFS
PLACES IT NEAR THE MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER. SO THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FRIDAY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GUIDANCE HAS A 35F
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FOR FRIDAY`S HIGHS. THEN 24 HOURS LATER AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE DIFFERENCES DISAPPEAR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
IN WYOMING. MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH INTO MONTANA AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PUSHES WELL INTO SASKATCHEWAN.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION MAY WELL
CHANGE FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW WITH A FROZEN MIX LIKELY IN
BETWEEN. THE FLUCTUATING FRONT WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE SNOWFALL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH EXTENDED PERIOD STORM SNOW
TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN GARFIELD COUNTY. BUT THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE
NOT YET CERTAIN. SATURDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH OR THE TEENS TOWARDS THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER. THE FRIGID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEMONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WARMER AIR THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY. THEN AN
ENERGETIC TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PAC-NW ON TUESDAY SENDING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE BY TUESDAY TO BRING MORE COLD AND
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OVERALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...MADE FEW GRID EDITS...
EXCEPT FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MONTANA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL
FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW...KGDV AND POSSIBLY KOLF.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERCAST STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE CYCLE.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE FAR END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION
MAY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15KT DURING THE
EVENING.... THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE
VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.
GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 260300
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
800 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH IS THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
BRING A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH NO REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA DECIDED TO
END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY EARLY.

TONIGHT WILL BRING A MINOR LULL IN WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AS WINDS DIE OFF WHILE THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED OUT
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PETROLEUM COUNTY. BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES STREAMING IN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

EARLY WEDNESDAY WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD NOW AS A WARM
FRONT. AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER THIS BOUNDARY...CREATING
AN EFFICIENT MECHANISM FOR SNOW PRODUCTION INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY CENTERED
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND PETROLEUM COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE LOOKS ON
TRACK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH NORTH...BUT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPS REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. FZRA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGES FROM SNOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND
JUST HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE GOING WATCH FOR
THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
EVENING. SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH...CARRYING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

24-HOURS LATER...AT 00Z SATURDAY...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
DISPARITY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z
EC PLACES THAT FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE THE GFS
PLACES IT NEAR THE MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER. SO THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FRIDAY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GUIDANCE HAS A 35F
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FOR FRIDAY`S HIGHS. THEN 24 HOURS LATER AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE DIFFERENCES DISAPPEAR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
IN WYOMING. MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH INTO MONTANA AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PUSHES WELL INTO SASKATCHEWAN.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION MAY WELL
CHANGE FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW WITH A FROZEN MIX LIKELY IN
BETWEEN. THE FLUCTUATING FRONT WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE SNOWFALL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH EXTENDED PERIOD STORM SNOW
TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN GARFIELD COUNTY. BUT THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE
NOT YET CERTAIN. SATURDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH OR THE TEENS TOWARDS THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER. THE FRIGID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEMONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WARMER AIR THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY. THEN AN
ENERGETIC TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PAC-NW ON TUESDAY SENDING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE BY TUESDAY TO BRING MORE COLD AND
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OVERALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...MADE FEW GRID EDITS...
EXCEPT FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MONTANA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: LOW MVFR... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW
SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE NW WILL
FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR
ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW...KGDV AND POSSIBLY KOLF.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT IFR POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CYCLE.

CEILINGS: BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT WITH FUEL LOADING FOR MOST SITES.
BRIEF IFR BELOW 1KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERCAST STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE CYCLE.

VSBY: BRIEF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SNOW SHOWERS... BUT SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR QUICKLY WITH
PASSAGE. NEAR THE FAR END OF THE CYCLE SNOW AND VSBY REDUCTION
MAY BECOME SUSTAINED FOR KGGW AND KGDV.

AREA WINDS: NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15KT DURING THE
EVENING.... THEN FURTHER DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE
VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

FREEZING RAIN: THURSDAY BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH CAN ACCUMULATE ICE ON
RUNWAYS AND AIRCRAFT WINGS.
GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 260104
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Early update to increase light snow amounts near Bozeman
as we`ve received reports of an inch or two in/near town.  Latest
short-term models still showing that the snow there will begin to
taper off later this evening as the main snow area begins to lift
northward into central MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 260104
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Early update to increase light snow amounts near Bozeman
as we`ve received reports of an inch or two in/near town.  Latest
short-term models still showing that the snow there will begin to
taper off later this evening as the main snow area begins to lift
northward into central MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 260104
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Early update to increase light snow amounts near Bozeman
as we`ve received reports of an inch or two in/near town.  Latest
short-term models still showing that the snow there will begin to
taper off later this evening as the main snow area begins to lift
northward into central MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 260104
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Early update to increase light snow amounts near Bozeman
as we`ve received reports of an inch or two in/near town.  Latest
short-term models still showing that the snow there will begin to
taper off later this evening as the main snow area begins to lift
northward into central MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260029 AAA
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
529 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN
CARBON COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WE/VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE RED LODGE AND BRIDGER AREAS AS OF 515
PM MST UNDERNEATH A BAND OF MORE INTENSE RADAR RETURNS /WHICH ALSO
STRETCHES NORTHWEST TOWARD FISHTAIL AND ABSAROKEE/. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO PICK UP ON THIS WELL AND SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES.
SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. THE MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE SNOW EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE TOWARD KMLS
AND KBHK AFTER 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    96/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    38/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    47/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    45/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>65.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 39.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 56-66>68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 252349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 252349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 252349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 252349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252234
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. THE MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE SNOW EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE TOWARD KMLS
AND KBHK AFTER 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    96/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    38/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    47/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    45/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-56-63>66.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-39-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252234
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. THE MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE SNOW EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE TOWARD KMLS
AND KBHK AFTER 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    96/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    38/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    47/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    45/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-56-63>66.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-39-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252234
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. THE MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE SNOW EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE TOWARD KMLS
AND KBHK AFTER 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    96/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    38/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    47/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    45/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-56-63>66.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-39-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252234
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CLIPPER ENERGY HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW
FOR THE MOST PART ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOW IN
PLACE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RED LODGE. SNOW IS INCREASING ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BAND FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WEST TO
RED LODGE...BIG TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. DOWNSLOPE DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED FROM BILLINGS AND HARDIN TO ROUNDUP AND HARLOWTON AND
THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE TEMPERATURES START
TO COOL AT THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME SHOULD
SEE THIS AREA FILL IN WITH SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ISENTROPIC SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES...SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS WARM ADVECTION SHALLOWS OUT THE COLD LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM BILLINGS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG GAP
WINDS FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AND BUMPED
WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS. WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING HIGHLITES UNTIL WE ARE FURTHER ALONG WITH CURRENT WINTER
HIGHLITES.

WINTER HIGHLITES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING HIGHLITES.
ALREADY SEEING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BUMPED THAT AREA TO A
WARNING. STARTED ADVISORY FOR CARBON...SOUTHERN BIG
HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CONDITION TRENDS. SNOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER
TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF
THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WITH SNOW NOT GETTING
INTO TREASURE AND NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR TREASURE AND ROSEBUD COUNTY
UNTIL 3AM. LEFT BILLINGS...MUSSELSHELL AND NORTHERN BIG HORN
TIMING ALONE FOR NOW AS SNOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN CURRENT MODEL TIMING WILL BRING SNOW IN BY MID
EVENING.

IMPACTS...DOT WEBCAMS SHOWING A MIXED BAG OF SNOWY AND WET ROADS
WITH A FEW AREAS THAT ARE STILL DRY. WITH SUNSET MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY ICE UP...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THOSE
TRAVELING TONIGHT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MAIN THEME WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
OF SYSTEMS. AFTER A SOMEWHAT MILD THANKSGIVING DAY...THE MAJORITY
OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD AS WELL BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MILD BUT THIS
MAY GET CHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY SATURDAY...MODELS
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIR SO MOST LIKELY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SLICK ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS AGAIN DIFFER IN
THE TIMING. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST INTO THE BILLINGS AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. THE MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE SNOW EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE TOWARD KMLS
AND KBHK AFTER 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/032 027/048 036/048 016/018 001/015 007/030 018/032
    99/O    31/B    01/B    36/S    32/J    11/B    13/S
LVM 025/040 037/049 039/046 023/025 006/023 017/034 023/034
    96/O    31/N    12/W    36/S    42/J    21/B    23/S
HDN 023/032 023/047 032/048 014/016 002/018 005/028 014/034
    99/O    41/B    01/B    23/S    32/J    11/B    12/S
MLS 019/027 021/043 030/044 011/013 903/012 002/024 012/026
    38/S    73/O    11/B    34/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 020/030 020/047 031/047 015/017 003/020 007/030 015/031
    47/S    61/E    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
BHK 014/022 016/037 028/042 012/014 902/011 001/024 012/029
    45/S    63/O    11/B    23/S    31/B    11/B    12/S
SHR 022/032 023/048 033/049 019/021 006/024 010/034 018/033
    99/S    21/B    00/B    12/S    22/J    10/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-40-41-56-63>66.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-39-42-57-58.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MST
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 30-31.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 99.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 252210
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
310 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH NO REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA DECIDED TO
END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY EARLY.

TONIGHT WILL BRING A MINOR LULL IN WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AS WINDS DIE OFF WHILE THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED OUT
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PETROLEUM COUNTY. BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES STREAMING IN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

EARLY WEDNESDAY WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD NOW AS A WARM
FRONT. AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER THIS BOUNDARY...CREATING
AN EFFICIENT MECHANISM FOR SNOW PRODUCTION INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY CENTERED
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND PETROLEUM COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE LOOKS ON
TRACK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH NORTH...BUT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPS REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. FZRA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM
AND PRECIP TYPE CHANGES FROM SNOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND
JUST HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE GOING WATCH FOR
THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
EVENING. SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH...CARRYING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

24-HOURS LATER...AT 00Z SATURDAY...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
DISPARITY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 12Z
EC PLACES THAT FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE THE GFS
PLACES IT NEAR THE MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER. SO THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FRIDAY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...GUIDANCE HAS A 35F
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FOR FRIDAY`S HIGHS. THEN 24 HOURS LATER AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE DIFFERENCES DISAPPEAR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
IN WYOMING. MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH INTO MONTANA AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PUSHES WELL INTO SASKATCHEWAN.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION MAY WELL
CHANGE FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW WITH A FROZEN MIX LIKELY IN
BETWEEN. THE FLUCTUATING FRONT WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE SNOWFALL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH EXTENDED PERIOD STORM SNOW
TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN GARFIELD COUNTY. BUT THESE SNOW TOTALS ARE
NOT YET CERTAIN. SATURDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH OR THE TEENS TOWARDS THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER. THE FRIGID AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEMONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WARMER AIR THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY. THEN AN
ENERGETIC TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PAC-NW ON TUESDAY SENDING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIVIDE BY TUESDAY TO BRING MORE COLD AND
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OVERALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...MADE FEW GRID EDITS...
EXCEPT FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MONTANA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELED SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GENERATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH
TO 10-15KT DURING THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...NOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM
THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS
PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING KGGW...KGDV AND POSSIBLY KOLF WITH
LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. ALL TERMINALS
MAY BE AFFECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED.

SCT



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW










000
FXUS65 KMSO 252158
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 252158
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 252158
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 252134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 251817
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1117 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. NOTE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE WAS
ENDED AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... COLDEST AIR OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LIES OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE AIRMASS/
EXTENT OF INFLUENCE DRAPES FARTHER SOUTH... WITH A TROUGH RUNNING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND US PLAINS... AND UPPER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE BROAD RIDGE OF WARM AIR
LIES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS OFF THE COASTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS
LYING STUCK IN A WEAK GRADIENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
LARGER FEATURES.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH SNOW TOTALS NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH ABOVE ONE TO
TWO INCHES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS DURING THAT TIME. THIS ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE... A PACIFIC MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
FORM A BOUNDARY FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVEL TO OVER RUN
AND BEGIN GENERATING INCREASINGLY HEAVIER SNOW. WETBULB EFFECT
SHOULD BRING THIS SNOW TO THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THESE SAME ZONES AND THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN
PLACED OUT OF THESE LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING HEAT WILL
BEGIN PRESSING INTO THE MID LEVEL AND DRAGGING SNOW FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL JET SHOULD PICK UP AT THIS TIME AND ACCELERATE
THE BACKSIDE EXIT OF THE SNOW AND DECREASE RESIDENCY TIME AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOW FALL FOR THE NEXT RING OF COUNTIES TO THE
NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS WHITEWATER... GLASGOW... CIRCLE... AND
TERRY SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND AN ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY... MID LEVEL HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE INTO THE
THERMAL PROFILE AND LEAVE A DECISIVE WARM LAYER WHILE THE SURFACE
LAYER BEGINS TO THIN BUT STILL CONTAINS MUCH OF THE INSULATING
SNOW COVER AND RETREATING FREEZING AIR. THE RESULT OF THIS OVERALL
PROFILE IS A FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING ICE. THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH WAS LEFT
IN PLACE UNTIL THIS BECOMES A DEAD CERTAINTY. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MONTANA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELED SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL GENERATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION. LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHWEST WIND
OF 15KT TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. THIS COULD GENERATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM/COLD
AIR BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM
THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS
PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME A CEILING AND VISIBILITY
ISSUE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...
WIBAUX.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 251817
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1117 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. NOTE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE WAS
ENDED AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... COLDEST AIR OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LIES OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE AIRMASS/
EXTENT OF INFLUENCE DRAPES FARTHER SOUTH... WITH A TROUGH RUNNING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND US PLAINS... AND UPPER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE BROAD RIDGE OF WARM AIR
LIES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS OFF THE COASTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS
LYING STUCK IN A WEAK GRADIENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
LARGER FEATURES.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH SNOW TOTALS NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH ABOVE ONE TO
TWO INCHES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS DURING THAT TIME. THIS ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE... A PACIFIC MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
FORM A BOUNDARY FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVEL TO OVER RUN
AND BEGIN GENERATING INCREASINGLY HEAVIER SNOW. WETBULB EFFECT
SHOULD BRING THIS SNOW TO THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THESE SAME ZONES AND THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN
PLACED OUT OF THESE LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING HEAT WILL
BEGIN PRESSING INTO THE MID LEVEL AND DRAGGING SNOW FARTHER EAST.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL JET SHOULD PICK UP AT THIS TIME AND ACCELERATE
THE BACKSIDE EXIT OF THE SNOW AND DECREASE RESIDENCY TIME AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOW FALL FOR THE NEXT RING OF COUNTIES TO THE
NORTHEAST AREAS SUCH AS WHITEWATER... GLASGOW... CIRCLE... AND
TERRY SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND AN ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY... MID LEVEL HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE INTO THE
THERMAL PROFILE AND LEAVE A DECISIVE WARM LAYER WHILE THE SURFACE
LAYER BEGINS TO THIN BUT STILL CONTAINS MUCH OF THE INSULATING
SNOW COVER AND RETREATING FREEZING AIR. THE RESULT OF THIS OVERALL
PROFILE IS A FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING ICE. THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH WAS LEFT
IN PLACE UNTIL THIS BECOMES A DEAD CERTAINTY. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ENOUGH WARM
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A COLD GROUND FOR
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO MONTANA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELED SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING BRINGING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL GENERATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION. LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHWEST WIND
OF 15KT TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. THIS COULD GENERATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM/COLD
AIR BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM
THE NW WILL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BRING ABOUT CONTINUOUS
PRECIPITATION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME A CEILING AND VISIBILITY
ISSUE AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.

SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...
NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...
WIBAUX.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN
VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 251801
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1101 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 251801
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1101 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1801Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. Winds to the north across north central Montana this
morning. Cold front pushing through the state is causing winds to
shift to the north-northwest and they will continue to be strong and
gusty early in the period. Widespread precipitation will develop
during the afternoon and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are
expected due to CIGS and SN. Conditions will begin to improve from
the south during the night and over central and northern portions of
the area during the day Wednesday. Mountain obscuration should be
expected over the Rockies and mountains in Southwest and Central
Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 251712
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1152Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. A cold front will switch winds to the north across north
central Montana this morning. Winds will continue strong and gusty
from the north. Widespread precipitation will develop during the day
and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are expected due to CIGS and
SN. Mountain obscuration should be expected over the Rockies and
mountains in Southwest and Central Montana. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 251712
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014

.UPDATE...
The only change to the forecast was to increase the chances of
precipitation over central Montana in line with the latest radar
imagery and latest forecast models.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1152Z.
Strong northwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into
the area. A cold front will switch winds to the north across north
central Montana this morning. Winds will continue strong and gusty
from the north. Widespread precipitation will develop during the day
and by evening widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY are expected due to CIGS and
SN. Mountain obscuration should be expected over the Rockies and
mountains in Southwest and Central Montana. Zelzer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2014/

Today through Thursday...A upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Eastern Pacific this morning with very strong northwest
flow aloft over the zones. At the surface, low pressure will be over
Alberta and a very tight surface pressure gradient will be along the
slopes of the Rockies. These winds will weaken during the morning. A
shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft will cross the
zones today and an associated cold front will move across the
northern zones this morning. The surface low moves steadily east so
the zones will receive only a glancing blow from this front.
However, temps will drop during the day with most of the effect
across the northeast. The jet moves north Wednesday as the ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest. The cold air boundary slides east
but temperatures will struggle to recover across the northeast
zones. Warm overrunning will keep precipitation in the forecast
Wednesday night, especially across the northern zones. A slight
chance for freezing rain will also develop over the northeast zones
towards Thursday morning as the lower levels warm. Forecast
soundings indicate rather dry conditions at lower levels and the
period of freezing rain should be quite short. Thus will not include
in the grids at this time. High pressure will continue to build from
the west and the ridge will be over the Rockies Thursday morning.
Breezy conditions will be in place again by Thursday morning and
very strong winds will again be developing over the Rockies. Zelzer

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana. Some temperatures will rebound
slightly Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the
single digits and teens across much of Central and North Central
Montana. Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold
air intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  24  38  33 /  70  90 100  30
CTB  38  23  32  26 /  20  90 100  40
HLN  41  30  45  32 /  70 100  40  20
BZN  37  25  42  28 /  90 100  40  20
WEY  33  25  36  23 / 100  90  40  30
DLN  41  33  46  32 /  70  60  30  10
HVR  38  19  30  22 /  20  70  90  80
LWT  37  21  35  28 /  70  80 100  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 1 PM MST this afternoon Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

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