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000
FXUS65 KGGW 221136
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
536 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA. FOG OR MIST ARE BEING OBSERVED AT A COUPLE OBSERVING SITES
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF SHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AMIDST THE OTHERWISE
NEARLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SMALL POCKETS OF LIFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGIONS. MODELS GENERALLY SYNOPTICALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
THIS LOW ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SE OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH OUR CWA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
TO SHIFT MORE OVER OUR PHILLIPS COUNTY. OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY TO GATHER AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF
FOR AN AREA GENERALLY FROM WHITEWATER THROUGH GLASGOW THROUGH WOLF
POINT...BUT THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY. TRIED TO SHOW AT
LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS WHERE THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS FOUND.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA LEAVING A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

DUE TO THE IMPACT OF A STRONG SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CANADA JUST NORTH OF MONTANA...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A 75KT 500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC WILL SUPPORT
STRONG QG FORCING OVER EASTERN MT AS WELL AS GENERATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH A
DRYLINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...PER SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK. COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS QUITE GOOD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 45KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
SOMEWHAT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND PWAT VALUES BELOW 1 INCH
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN RISKS. THE MAXIMUM CAPE
IS ALSO AROUND THE -20C LEVEL IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ENHANCING
HAIL GROWTH.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THERE WILL ONLY
BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SATURDAY FOR A SHOWER IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TAKES A TURN AN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TOWARDS IOWA. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...RIDGE GROWS OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE LEADING
TO BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10KTS AND GENERALLY EASTERLY OR VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS BUT ANY CEILINGS
WILL BE ABOVE FL100.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. MARTIN


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MARGINALLY CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AN INCREASE INTO THE 20G30 MPH RANGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR THE SAME AREA.

OVERALL...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND SHIFTING WINDS
SHIFTING INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.

FRANSEN/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 221136
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
536 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA. FOG OR MIST ARE BEING OBSERVED AT A COUPLE OBSERVING SITES
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS.  MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF SHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AMIDST THE OTHERWISE
NEARLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SMALL POCKETS OF LIFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGIONS. MODELS GENERALLY SYNOPTICALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
THIS LOW ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SE OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH OUR CWA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
TO SHIFT MORE OVER OUR PHILLIPS COUNTY. OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY TO GATHER AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF
FOR AN AREA GENERALLY FROM WHITEWATER THROUGH GLASGOW THROUGH WOLF
POINT...BUT THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY. TRIED TO SHOW AT
LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS WHERE THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS FOUND.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA LEAVING A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

DUE TO THE IMPACT OF A STRONG SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CANADA JUST NORTH OF MONTANA...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A 75KT 500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC WILL SUPPORT
STRONG QG FORCING OVER EASTERN MT AS WELL AS GENERATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH A
DRYLINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...PER SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK. COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS QUITE GOOD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 45KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
SOMEWHAT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND PWAT VALUES BELOW 1 INCH
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN RISKS. THE MAXIMUM CAPE
IS ALSO AROUND THE -20C LEVEL IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ENHANCING
HAIL GROWTH.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THERE WILL ONLY
BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SATURDAY FOR A SHOWER IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TAKES A TURN AN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TOWARDS IOWA. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...RIDGE GROWS OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE LEADING
TO BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10KTS AND GENERALLY EASTERLY OR VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS BUT ANY CEILINGS
WILL BE ABOVE FL100.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. MARTIN


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MARGINALLY CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AN INCREASE INTO THE 20G30 MPH RANGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR THE SAME AREA.

OVERALL...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND SHIFTING WINDS
SHIFTING INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.

FRANSEN/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTFX 221124
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...An active weather pattern will continue
through the short term as an upper level low continue to exert its
influence as it moves down the Canadian coast towards Washington,
and then Montana. A series of shortwave troughs will move into the
area ahead of this system the weaker of the two should impact the
area Today bringing an enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms
and showers across the region. The stronger impulse will move over
the area on Wednesday and has a better chance of enhancing
thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging hail and wind. It
currently appears that the best combination of sheer and instability
for Wednesday exists across the high plains of Central
Montana...extending west over the Rocky Mountain Front. Dry air near
the surface should allow for strong outflows, possibly damaging, to
develop from these storms. Decent lapse rates should allow for
strong updrafts in storms that organize in the sheared environment.
Hail growth will be limited by the high freezing level, but any
storm strong enough to maintain its height in this environment
should be able to produce a decent amount of small hail and possibly
hailstones larger than an inch in diameter. By Thursday the low
pressure system will move quickly across the area bringing strong
gusty winds to at least the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent high plains. Have issued a high wind watch for this area
beginning Thursday morning and continuing through the day Thursday.
The greatest potential for damaging winds appears to be over by late
Thursday night. Suk

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana. Blank



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers will affect central Montana this morning impacting mainly
KLWT. The main problem with the taf forecasts was figuring out how
showers and thunderstorms will play out this afternoon and evening
as forecast models have differing scenarios. Confidence that showers
and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to the 21z-03z time frame
is high but confidence in picking out a specific period when showers
and thunderstorms could occur at any particular point is low. Keep
in mind that wind gusts near 40 kts and/or MVFR conditions in
heavier rain will be possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Showers with an outside threat of a thunderstorm should
affect KHLN late tonight but also could possibly get near KGTF and
KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  62  89  60 /  40  30  60  50
CTB  81  55  86  54 /  40  30  50  70
HLN  88  61  92  59 /  40  40  50  40
BZN  86  54  92  54 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  78  43  82  43 /  10  10  20  10
DLN  83  54  88  53 /  40  20  40  30
HVR  88  59  92  59 /  20  20  40  60
LWT  85  58  92  58 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221124
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...An active weather pattern will continue
through the short term as an upper level low continue to exert its
influence as it moves down the Canadian coast towards Washington,
and then Montana. A series of shortwave troughs will move into the
area ahead of this system the weaker of the two should impact the
area Today bringing an enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms
and showers across the region. The stronger impulse will move over
the area on Wednesday and has a better chance of enhancing
thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging hail and wind. It
currently appears that the best combination of sheer and instability
for Wednesday exists across the high plains of Central
Montana...extending west over the Rocky Mountain Front. Dry air near
the surface should allow for strong outflows, possibly damaging, to
develop from these storms. Decent lapse rates should allow for
strong updrafts in storms that organize in the sheared environment.
Hail growth will be limited by the high freezing level, but any
storm strong enough to maintain its height in this environment
should be able to produce a decent amount of small hail and possibly
hailstones larger than an inch in diameter. By Thursday the low
pressure system will move quickly across the area bringing strong
gusty winds to at least the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent high plains. Have issued a high wind watch for this area
beginning Thursday morning and continuing through the day Thursday.
The greatest potential for damaging winds appears to be over by late
Thursday night. Suk

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana. Blank



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers will affect central Montana this morning impacting mainly
KLWT. The main problem with the taf forecasts was figuring out how
showers and thunderstorms will play out this afternoon and evening
as forecast models have differing scenarios. Confidence that showers
and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to the 21z-03z time frame
is high but confidence in picking out a specific period when showers
and thunderstorms could occur at any particular point is low. Keep
in mind that wind gusts near 40 kts and/or MVFR conditions in
heavier rain will be possible with thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Showers with an outside threat of a thunderstorm should
affect KHLN late tonight but also could possibly get near KGTF and
KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  62  89  60 /  40  30  60  50
CTB  81  55  86  54 /  40  30  50  70
HLN  88  61  92  59 /  40  40  50  40
BZN  86  54  92  54 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  78  43  82  43 /  10  10  20  10
DLN  83  54  88  53 /  40  20  40  30
HVR  88  59  92  59 /  20  20  40  60
LWT  85  58  92  58 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KGGW 220955
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF SHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS EASILY BEING FUNNELED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AMIDST THE OTHERWISE
NEARLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SMALL POCKETS OF LIFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGIONS. MODELS GENERALLY SYNOPTICALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
THIS LOW ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SE OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH OUR CWA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
TO SHIFT MORE OVER OUR PHILLIPS COUNTY. OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY TO GATHER AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF
FOR AN AREA GENERALLY FROM WHITEWATER THROUGH GLASGOW THROUGH WOLF
POINT...BUT THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY. TRIED TO SHOW AT
LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS WHERE THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS FOUND.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA LEAVING A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

DUE TO THE IMPACT OF A STRONG SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CANADA JUST NORTH OF MONTANA...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A 75KT 500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC WILL SUPPORT
STRONG QG FORCING OVER EASTERN MT AS WELL AS GENERATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH A
DRY LINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...PER SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK. COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS QUITE GOOD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 45KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
SOMEWHAT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND PWAT VALUES BELOW 1 INCH
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN RISKS. THE MAXIMUM CAPE
IS ALSO AROUND THE -20C LEVEL IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ENHANCING
HAIL GROWTH.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THERE WILL ONLY
BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SATURDAY FOR A SHOWER IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TAKES A TURN AN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TOWARDS IOWA. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...RIDGE GROWS OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE LEADING
TO BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...

AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10KTS AND GENERALLY EASTERLY OR VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS BUT ANY CEILINGS
WILL BE ABOVE FL100.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. MARTIN


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MARGINALLY CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AN INCREASE INTO THE 20G30 MPH RANGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR THE SAME AREA.

OVERALL...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND SHIFTING WINDS
SHIFTING INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.

FRANSEN/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 220955
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF SHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS EASILY BEING FUNNELED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AMIDST THE OTHERWISE
NEARLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SMALL POCKETS OF LIFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGIONS. MODELS GENERALLY SYNOPTICALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
THIS LOW ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SE OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH OUR CWA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
TO SHIFT MORE OVER OUR PHILLIPS COUNTY. OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY TO GATHER AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF
FOR AN AREA GENERALLY FROM WHITEWATER THROUGH GLASGOW THROUGH WOLF
POINT...BUT THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY. TRIED TO SHOW AT
LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS WHERE THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS FOUND.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA LEAVING A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

DUE TO THE IMPACT OF A STRONG SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CANADA JUST NORTH OF MONTANA...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A 75KT 500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC WILL SUPPORT
STRONG QG FORCING OVER EASTERN MT AS WELL AS GENERATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH A
DRY LINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...PER SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK. COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS QUITE GOOD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 45KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
SOMEWHAT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND PWAT VALUES BELOW 1 INCH
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN RISKS. THE MAXIMUM CAPE
IS ALSO AROUND THE -20C LEVEL IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ENHANCING
HAIL GROWTH.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THERE WILL ONLY
BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SATURDAY FOR A SHOWER IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TAKES A TURN AN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TOWARDS IOWA. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...RIDGE GROWS OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE LEADING
TO BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...

AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10KTS AND GENERALLY EASTERLY OR VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS BUT ANY CEILINGS
WILL BE ABOVE FL100.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. MARTIN


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MARGINALLY CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AN INCREASE INTO THE 20G30 MPH RANGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR THE SAME AREA.

OVERALL...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND SHIFTING WINDS
SHIFTING INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.

FRANSEN/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 220955
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF SHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS EASILY BEING FUNNELED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AMIDST THE OTHERWISE
NEARLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SMALL POCKETS OF LIFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGIONS. MODELS GENERALLY SYNOPTICALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
THIS LOW ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SE OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH OUR CWA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
TO SHIFT MORE OVER OUR PHILLIPS COUNTY. OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY TO GATHER AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF
FOR AN AREA GENERALLY FROM WHITEWATER THROUGH GLASGOW THROUGH WOLF
POINT...BUT THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY. TRIED TO SHOW AT
LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS WHERE THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS FOUND.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA LEAVING A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

DUE TO THE IMPACT OF A STRONG SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CANADA JUST NORTH OF MONTANA...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A 75KT 500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC WILL SUPPORT
STRONG QG FORCING OVER EASTERN MT AS WELL AS GENERATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH A
DRY LINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...PER SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK. COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS QUITE GOOD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 45KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
SOMEWHAT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND PWAT VALUES BELOW 1 INCH
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN RISKS. THE MAXIMUM CAPE
IS ALSO AROUND THE -20C LEVEL IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ENHANCING
HAIL GROWTH.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THERE WILL ONLY
BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SATURDAY FOR A SHOWER IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TAKES A TURN AN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TOWARDS IOWA. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...RIDGE GROWS OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE LEADING
TO BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...

AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10KTS AND GENERALLY EASTERLY OR VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS BUT ANY CEILINGS
WILL BE ABOVE FL100.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. MARTIN


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MARGINALLY CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AN INCREASE INTO THE 20G30 MPH RANGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR THE SAME AREA.

OVERALL...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND SHIFTING WINDS
SHIFTING INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.

FRANSEN/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 220955
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
355 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF SHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS EASILY BEING FUNNELED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING AMIDST THE OTHERWISE
NEARLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SMALL POCKETS OF LIFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGIONS. MODELS GENERALLY SYNOPTICALLY AGREE IN BRINGING
THIS LOW ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SE OF INTERSTATE 94 THROUGH OUR CWA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
TO SHIFT MORE OVER OUR PHILLIPS COUNTY. OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY TO GATHER AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF
FOR AN AREA GENERALLY FROM WHITEWATER THROUGH GLASGOW THROUGH WOLF
POINT...BUT THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY. TRIED TO SHOW AT
LEAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS WHERE THE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS FOUND.

BY LATE THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR CWA LEAVING A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

DUE TO THE IMPACT OF A STRONG SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CANADA JUST NORTH OF MONTANA...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A 75KT 500MB SPEED MAX ROUNDING
THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC WILL SUPPORT
STRONG QG FORCING OVER EASTERN MT AS WELL AS GENERATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH A
DRY LINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THE DRY LINE...BUT IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...PER SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK. COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS QUITE GOOD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 45KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
SOMEWHAT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND PWAT VALUES BELOW 1 INCH
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND MICROBURSTS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN RISKS. THE MAXIMUM CAPE
IS ALSO AROUND THE -20C LEVEL IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ENHANCING
HAIL GROWTH.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THERE WILL ONLY
BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SATURDAY FOR A SHOWER IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TAKES A TURN AN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TOWARDS IOWA. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...RIDGE GROWS OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE LEADING
TO BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS PRETTY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN US RIDGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...

AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10KTS AND GENERALLY EASTERLY OR VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS BUT ANY CEILINGS
WILL BE ABOVE FL100.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. MARTIN


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MARGINALLY CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AN INCREASE INTO THE 20G30 MPH RANGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR THE SAME AREA.

OVERALL...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND SHIFTING WINDS
SHIFTING INCREASING LATE THURSDAY.

FRANSEN/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 220954
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
354 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon...
...Strong thunderstorms possible Wednesday...
...Windy and cooler with snow levels around 7000 feet for
Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...Showers are passing from south to north through the
region in association with a shortwave. An area of clearing is
likely behind the shortwave so north central Idaho and west
central/southwest Montana will warm nicely and become unstable
this afternoon. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon have the
potential to become strong with gusty winds and hail.
Thunderstorms will pass to the east and out of the area through
the evening. The break before showers re-initiate will be short.
There is consistency between model guidance that the next wave
of storms will develop around midnight tonight in Idaho and pass
into western Montana through the early morning hours. These storms
will pass off to the north and east by mid-morning.

The low pressure system will move into the region through the day
on Wednesday and southwesterly flow will strengthen. Temperatures
are anticipated to warm to around 5 degrees above normal helping to
create unstable conditions. There is still fairly high confidence
that the weather pattern on Wednesday will bring strong
thunderstorms with wind, hail, heavy rain, and lightning. The high
amount of available moisture will bring a threat for flash flooding
on burn scars as well. High resolution models are beginning to narrow
the highest potential for strong thunderstorms to be in west
central and northwest Montana Wednesday afternoon.

An intense cold front for July is forecast to pass Wednesday night
through Thursday. This front will cause gusty winds through
Thursday. High elevations including Logan Pass in Glacier NP will
see wind gusts of 60 mph. The cold front will also bring low snow
levels for the middle of summer of around 7000 feet in Glacier NP
so mountain peaks may receive light snow Thursday morning. High
temperatures are going to be well below average as well with 40s
and 50s in the terrain and 60s in many valley locations.

High pressure will begin to move back into the region on Friday so
the forecast has a warming and drying trend through the weekend.
Moisture will begin to move into the region during the beginning
of next week so showers will begin to return to the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through the region
this morning. The shortwave responsible for these showers will move
from south to north this morning and will arrive to northwest
Montana by late morning. North central Idaho and most of western
Montana will briefly clear and warm after the shortwave passes, so
thunderstorms are forecast to initiate this afternoon. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in north central Idaho and west
central/southwest Montana. A few of these are expected to become
strong with gusty winds and hail. Most of the storms will be out
of the area by 23/0300z. Model guidance agree that another
shortwave will arrive tonight so showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop overnight.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 220954
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
354 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon...
...Strong thunderstorms possible Wednesday...
...Windy and cooler with snow levels around 7000 feet for
Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...Showers are passing from south to north through the
region in association with a shortwave. An area of clearing is
likely behind the shortwave so north central Idaho and west
central/southwest Montana will warm nicely and become unstable
this afternoon. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon have the
potential to become strong with gusty winds and hail.
Thunderstorms will pass to the east and out of the area through
the evening. The break before showers re-initiate will be short.
There is consistency between model guidance that the next wave
of storms will develop around midnight tonight in Idaho and pass
into western Montana through the early morning hours. These storms
will pass off to the north and east by mid-morning.

The low pressure system will move into the region through the day
on Wednesday and southwesterly flow will strengthen. Temperatures
are anticipated to warm to around 5 degrees above normal helping to
create unstable conditions. There is still fairly high confidence
that the weather pattern on Wednesday will bring strong
thunderstorms with wind, hail, heavy rain, and lightning. The high
amount of available moisture will bring a threat for flash flooding
on burn scars as well. High resolution models are beginning to narrow
the highest potential for strong thunderstorms to be in west
central and northwest Montana Wednesday afternoon.

An intense cold front for July is forecast to pass Wednesday night
through Thursday. This front will cause gusty winds through
Thursday. High elevations including Logan Pass in Glacier NP will
see wind gusts of 60 mph. The cold front will also bring low snow
levels for the middle of summer of around 7000 feet in Glacier NP
so mountain peaks may receive light snow Thursday morning. High
temperatures are going to be well below average as well with 40s
and 50s in the terrain and 60s in many valley locations.

High pressure will begin to move back into the region on Friday so
the forecast has a warming and drying trend through the weekend.
Moisture will begin to move into the region during the beginning
of next week so showers will begin to return to the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through the region
this morning. The shortwave responsible for these showers will move
from south to north this morning and will arrive to northwest
Montana by late morning. North central Idaho and most of western
Montana will briefly clear and warm after the shortwave passes, so
thunderstorms are forecast to initiate this afternoon. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in north central Idaho and west
central/southwest Montana. A few of these are expected to become
strong with gusty winds and hail. Most of the storms will be out
of the area by 23/0300z. Model guidance agree that another
shortwave will arrive tonight so showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop overnight.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 220950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...An active weather pattern will continue
through the short term as an upper level low continue to exert its
influence as it moves down the Canadian coast towards Washington,
and then Montana. A series of shortwave troughs will move into the area
ahead of this system the weaker of the two should impact the area
Today bringing an enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms and
showers across the region. The stronger impulse will move over the
area on Wednesday and has a better chance of enhancing
thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging hail and wind. It
currently appears that the best combination of sheer and
instability for Wednesday exists across the high plains of
Central Montana...extending west over the Rocky Mountain Front.
Dry air near the surface should allow for strong outflows,
possibly damaging, to develop from these storms. Decent lapse
rates should allow for strong updrafts in storms that organize in
the sheared environment. Hail growth will be limited by the high
freezing level, but any storm strong enough to maintain its height
in this environment should be able to produce a decent amount of
small hail and possibly hailstones larger than an inch in
diameter. By Thursday the low pressure system will move quickly
across the area bringing strong gusty winds to at least the
Northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent high plains. Have
issued a high wind watch for this area beginning Thursday morning
and continuing through the day Thursday. The greatest potential
for damaging winds appears to be over by late Thursday night. Suk

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana. Blank



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana continue until
about 09Z. MVFR conditions are possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Unsettled
conditions remain over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  62  89  60 /  40  30  60  50
CTB  81  55  86  54 /  40  30  50  70
HLN  88  61  92  59 /  40  40  50  40
BZN  86  54  92  54 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  78  43  82  43 /  10  10  20  10
DLN  83  54  88  53 /  40  20  40  30
HVR  88  59  92  59 /  20  20  40  60
LWT  85  58  92  58 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 220950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday...An active weather pattern will continue
through the short term as an upper level low continue to exert its
influence as it moves down the Canadian coast towards Washington,
and then Montana. A series of shortwave troughs will move into the area
ahead of this system the weaker of the two should impact the area
Today bringing an enhanced potential for strong thunderstorms and
showers across the region. The stronger impulse will move over the
area on Wednesday and has a better chance of enhancing
thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging hail and wind. It
currently appears that the best combination of sheer and
instability for Wednesday exists across the high plains of
Central Montana...extending west over the Rocky Mountain Front.
Dry air near the surface should allow for strong outflows,
possibly damaging, to develop from these storms. Decent lapse
rates should allow for strong updrafts in storms that organize in
the sheared environment. Hail growth will be limited by the high
freezing level, but any storm strong enough to maintain its height
in this environment should be able to produce a decent amount of
small hail and possibly hailstones larger than an inch in
diameter. By Thursday the low pressure system will move quickly
across the area bringing strong gusty winds to at least the
Northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent high plains. Have
issued a high wind watch for this area beginning Thursday morning
and continuing through the day Thursday. The greatest potential
for damaging winds appears to be over by late Thursday night. Suk

Thursday night through Monday...The main message during the period
will be warming temperatures and dry conditions as a strong ridge
aloft develops over the western United States. Thursday evening
will start off with an upper low over southern Alberta. Associated
cool air could bring some very light snow to the mountains of
Glacier Park.At this time snow levels could range between 7500 and
8000 feet. Also Thursday evening strong westerly flow aloft
associated with the upper low could result in high winds over
Glacier..Toole..and Pondera Counties. Dry westerly flow aloft is
expected Friday with highs near 80. Over the weekend into Monday
the development of the strong ridge will occur. Even as
temperatures warm...a relatively dry airmass and the upper ridge
should result in no precipitation over the weekend. Early next
week monsoonal moisture will move into the forecast area but
models differ on its timing. At this time have opted to keep the
weather warm and dry on Monday though isolated showers and
thunderstorms are not out of the question for far southwest
Montana. Blank



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana continue until
about 09Z. MVFR conditions are possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Unsettled
conditions remain over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  62  89  60 /  40  30  60  50
CTB  81  55  86  54 /  40  30  50  70
HLN  88  61  92  59 /  40  40  50  40
BZN  86  54  92  54 /  30  30  30  20
WEY  78  43  82  43 /  10  10  20  10
DLN  83  54  88  53 /  40  20  40  30
HVR  88  59  92  59 /  20  20  40  60
LWT  85  58  92  58 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220834
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT THRU A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE WSW FLOW ALOFT...AND PER LATEST RAP H5 ANALYSIS OUR
HEIGHTS HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO RISE. AT 2 AM THERE EXISTS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR CWA BUT THERE IS MORE UPSTREAM FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MT TO NORTHERN NV. HEIGHT RISES WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY
BUT IN THE MEANTIME AREAS OF PV INTERACTING WITH PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME AFTN DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP. FEEL THAT BY LATE AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING THE PV WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH AND MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO ADDRESS TODAY EXISTS IN OUR EAST. SLOWER
ONSET OF HEIGHT RISES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM MILES CITY TO BROADUS EAST. ASCENT WILL COME IN THE
FORM OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT...AND
A LOW LEVEL JET BY EVENING...WITH 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS. HAIL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP THE HIGH PWAT AIR IN PLACE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING IN OUR EAST IN THE HWO/GRAPHIC.

RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 590S...CORRESPONDING WITH 700MB TEMPS TO NEAR
+16C. THIS TONGUE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
CONSIDERABLY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSE TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SELY SFC FLOW
DEVELOPING...SO IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP WITH ISOLD TSTMS
MENTIONED IN OUR EAST. OUR CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS WILL BE MUCH
DRIER WITH DEEPER MIXING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS FOR MOST
OF THIS AREA BUT KEPT ISOLD POPS IN OUR NW...CLOSER TO COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WESTERN MT. COULD SEE SOME
RIDGE RUNNER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
FEEL THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY YET OF
2014 FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED WE SHOULD
SEE SOME AREAS REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK...PERHAPS BILLINGS. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 101F MAY BE APPROACHED AT LIVINGSTON...
ESPECIALLY IF SW WINDS MIX OUT. RECORDS AT BILLINGS...MILES CITY
AND SHERIDAN APPEAR TOO HIGH TO BE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY.

OF COURSE...THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ON OUR DRYING
FUELS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY BY THURSDAY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY STILL SHAPING UP FOR A POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
AS A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ALOFT CRASH THROUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONSISTENCY
REMAINS VERY GOOD WITH CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO INCREASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +28C TO 30C
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500 MB. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS COMBINED
WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS...WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY FOR DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN OR NEAR ANY STORMS.
THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/098 066/098 057/085 057/085 058/087 059/090
    2/T 11/U    11/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 090 055/099 056/091 049/083 049/083 049/088 051/090
    2/T 21/B    11/N    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 092 059/100 062/101 057/086 056/086 057/088 058/091
    2/T 11/U    11/G    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 065/098 067/097 059/085 058/085 059/086 059/088
    3/T 22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
4BQ 090 061/098 064/100 058/085 058/085 058/085 058/088
    3/T 22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 060/091 062/096 057/083 053/083 054/083 054/084
    4/T 32/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
SHR 090 057/098 059/098 053/084 053/084 053/085 054/087
    2/T 11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 220506
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Update this evening to trim areas of higher precip probabilities
and tweak winds. Showers over Blaine County have been diminishing
this evening, with other areas over southwest Montana. One area
from near Anaconda to Townsend will persist this evening. A
disturbance over Idaho will continue to push into southwest
Montana overnight and during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
This will continue isolated showers/thunderstorms over southwest
MT overnight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana continue until
about 09Z. MVFR conditions are possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Unsettled
conditions remain over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  60  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 220506
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Update this evening to trim areas of higher precip probabilities
and tweak winds. Showers over Blaine County have been diminishing
this evening, with other areas over southwest Montana. One area
from near Anaconda to Townsend will persist this evening. A
disturbance over Idaho will continue to push into southwest
Montana overnight and during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
This will continue isolated showers/thunderstorms over southwest
MT overnight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana continue until
about 09Z. MVFR conditions are possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Unsettled
conditions remain over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  60  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KGGW 220345 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
945 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES AS THOSE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE HELD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN THE MODELS. MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES THERE BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES HAVE DISAPPEARED. DECIDED TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BMICKELSON

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL TO THE GRIDS
FOLLOWING RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
LATEST MODEL DATA. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING IN THESE STORMS. CUT BACK ON
THAT WORDING AS WELL. OVERALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY
IS HIT AND MISS. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND MAY
SET OFF ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW
INCREASING 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG WITH MU CAPE ACROSS THE CWA
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DUE TO PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED NOT TO PUT WORDING INTO THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT LINEAR FEATURES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...DO
FEEL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STORMS PUSH
EAST DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF ANY LINEAR FEATURES THAT
ORGANIZE. THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO REASSESS THE THREAT.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS WITH STORMS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
YIELD A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THE MOMENT. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRY LINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRY LINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
PROTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AT
THIS TIME. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE PRETTY STRONG ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. RH`S WILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL MY BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING ON THURSDAY.

FRANSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 220345 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
945 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES AS THOSE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE HELD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN THE MODELS. MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES THERE BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES HAVE DISAPPEARED. DECIDED TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BMICKELSON

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL TO THE GRIDS
FOLLOWING RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
LATEST MODEL DATA. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING IN THESE STORMS. CUT BACK ON
THAT WORDING AS WELL. OVERALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY
IS HIT AND MISS. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND MAY
SET OFF ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW
INCREASING 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG WITH MU CAPE ACROSS THE CWA
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DUE TO PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED NOT TO PUT WORDING INTO THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT LINEAR FEATURES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...DO
FEEL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STORMS PUSH
EAST DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF ANY LINEAR FEATURES THAT
ORGANIZE. THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO REASSESS THE THREAT.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS WITH STORMS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
YIELD A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THE MOMENT. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRY LINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRY LINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
PROTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AT
THIS TIME. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE PRETTY STRONG ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. RH`S WILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL MY BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING ON THURSDAY.

FRANSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220309
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER.
THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS WYOMING.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SO
FAR HAVE BEEN PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BUT NOTHING STRONG.

SOME ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING
AND THIS MAY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. UPDATED
FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
TODAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.

THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AN MCS
IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BEHIND
THE WAVE HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE SECONDARY WAVE IS
NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA...WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG. EXPECT TO SEEM SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FURTHER CONFIRM
THIS THINKING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER...WE EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ON THE
WHOLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RISING HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL ZONES. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. THE TWO LOCATIONS OF INTEREST WILL BE 1/
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MISSOULA TO GREAT FALLS WHERE
THE BETTER FORCING EXISTS FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE AND 2/ ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MONTANA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEER.
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE FIRE WEATHER FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND PERHAPS SHERIDAN COUNTY WY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES SHOWING
A RELATIVELY CLASSIC BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE
12 UTC GFS HOLDING WARMER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE OVER MORE OF THE AREA
LONGER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS SIMULATE VERTICAL MIXING TO
ALMOST 500 MB OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD PUSH HIGHS TO 100 F IN
SOME PLACES LIKE BILLINGS...MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES INDEED OCCUR WITH A GFS-LIKE TIMING. GUSTY WINDS WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT SCENARIO...SO WE MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE...A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
500-MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER /IN THE 80S F/ THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 90S F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE PLAINS. WE LEANED ON
CONTINUITY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST...BUT AS
VEGETATION AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS WEEK
IT/S POSSIBLE HIGHS WILL END UP A BIT WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 063/095 064/096 058/084 057/085 058/086 059/090
    21/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 054/089 055/093 055/088 050/083 049/083 049/088 051/090
    22/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 059/092 060/099 061/097 057/086 056/086 057/088 058/091
    21/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 063/090 065/095 066/097 059/085 058/085 059/086 059/088
    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/090 062/097 064/097 059/085 058/085 058/085 058/088
    22/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 058/086 060/090 061/092 057/083 053/083 054/083 054/084
    13/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
SHR 055/090 058/096 058/096 054/084 053/084 053/085 054/087
    21/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220309
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER.
THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS WYOMING.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SO
FAR HAVE BEEN PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BUT NOTHING STRONG.

SOME ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING
AND THIS MAY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. UPDATED
FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
TODAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.

THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AN MCS
IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BEHIND
THE WAVE HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE SECONDARY WAVE IS
NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA...WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG. EXPECT TO SEEM SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FURTHER CONFIRM
THIS THINKING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER...WE EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ON THE
WHOLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RISING HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL ZONES. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. THE TWO LOCATIONS OF INTEREST WILL BE 1/
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MISSOULA TO GREAT FALLS WHERE
THE BETTER FORCING EXISTS FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE AND 2/ ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MONTANA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEER.
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE FIRE WEATHER FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND PERHAPS SHERIDAN COUNTY WY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES SHOWING
A RELATIVELY CLASSIC BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE
12 UTC GFS HOLDING WARMER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE OVER MORE OF THE AREA
LONGER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS SIMULATE VERTICAL MIXING TO
ALMOST 500 MB OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD PUSH HIGHS TO 100 F IN
SOME PLACES LIKE BILLINGS...MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES INDEED OCCUR WITH A GFS-LIKE TIMING. GUSTY WINDS WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT SCENARIO...SO WE MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE...A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
500-MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER /IN THE 80S F/ THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 90S F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE PLAINS. WE LEANED ON
CONTINUITY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST...BUT AS
VEGETATION AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS WEEK
IT/S POSSIBLE HIGHS WILL END UP A BIT WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 063/095 064/096 058/084 057/085 058/086 059/090
    21/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 054/089 055/093 055/088 050/083 049/083 049/088 051/090
    22/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 059/092 060/099 061/097 057/086 056/086 057/088 058/091
    21/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 063/090 065/095 066/097 059/085 058/085 059/086 059/088
    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/090 062/097 064/097 059/085 058/085 058/085 058/088
    22/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 058/086 060/090 061/092 057/083 053/083 054/083 054/084
    13/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
SHR 055/090 058/096 058/096 054/084 053/084 053/085 054/087
    21/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 220248
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
848 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Update this evening to trim areas of higher precip probabilities
and tweak winds. Showers over Blaine County ahve been diminishing
this evening, with other areas over southwest Montana. One area
from near Anaconda to Townsend will persist this evening. A
disturbance over Idaho will continue to push into southwest
Montana overnight and during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
This will continue isolated showers/thunderstorms over southwest
MT overnight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at most
locations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southwest
Montana continue until about 06Z. MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Flow
will remain unsettled over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  60  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 220248
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
848 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Update this evening to trim areas of higher precip probabilities
and tweak winds. Showers over Blaine County ahve been diminishing
this evening, with other areas over southwest Montana. One area
from near Anaconda to Townsend will persist this evening. A
disturbance over Idaho will continue to push into southwest
Montana overnight and during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
This will continue isolated showers/thunderstorms over southwest
MT overnight. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at most
locations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southwest
Montana continue until about 06Z. MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Flow
will remain unsettled over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  60  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  20  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KGGW 220206 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
806 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL TO THE GRIDS
FOLLOWING RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
LATEST MODEL DATA. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING IN THESE STORMS. CUT BACK ON
THAT WORDING AS WELL. OVERALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY IS HIT AND MISS. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING PER
RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND MAY
SET OFF ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW
INCREASING 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG WITH MU CAPE ACROSS THE CWA
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DUE TO PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED NOT TO PUT WORDING INTO THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT LINEAR FEATURES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...DO
FEEL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STORMS PUSH
EAST DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF ANY LINEAR FEATURES THAT
ORGANIZE. THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO REASSESS THE THREAT.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS WITH STORMS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
YIELD A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THE MOMENT. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRY LINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRY LINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
PROTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RH`S DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AT
THIS TIME. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE PRETTY STRONG ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. RH`S WILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL MY BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING ON THURSDAY.

FRANSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 220206 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
806 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL TO THE GRIDS
FOLLOWING RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
LATEST MODEL DATA. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING IN THESE STORMS. CUT BACK ON
THAT WORDING AS WELL. OVERALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE
ACTIVITY IS HIT AND MISS. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING PER
RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTANA.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND MAY
SET OFF ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW
INCREASING 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG WITH MU CAPE ACROSS THE CWA
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DUE TO PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED NOT TO PUT WORDING INTO THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT LINEAR FEATURES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...DO
FEEL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STORMS PUSH
EAST DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SUPER-CELLULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF ANY LINEAR FEATURES THAT
ORGANIZE. THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO REASSESS THE THREAT.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS WITH STORMS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
YIELD A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THE MOMENT. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRY LINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRY LINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRY LINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
PROTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RH`S DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AT
THIS TIME. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE PRETTY STRONG ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. RH`S WILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL MY BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING ON THURSDAY.

FRANSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 220004
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at most
locations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southwest
Montana continue until about 06Z. MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Flow
will remain unsettled over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 220004
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at most
locations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southwest
Montana continue until about 06Z. MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Flow
will remain unsettled over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 220004
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at most
locations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southwest
Montana continue until about 06Z. MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Flow
will remain unsettled over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 220004
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over Southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
Central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads
southward behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT
tonight, a shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues.
Forecast models are showing decent agreement that moisture along the
west side of the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion
of today`s trof that will be draped over Central MT, creating
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
central counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective
activity will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast
through Wed morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed
aftn/eve as widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind
shear develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along
the Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all
indicate increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not
quite in synch just yet on location and timing for the worst
activity.  However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas
along and north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime
location for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some
potential that the area may spread south to around Helena and
Lewistown. We will continue to refine the threat area and timing
with upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow. Waranauskas

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at most
locations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southwest
Montana continue until about 06Z. MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Mid level ceilings remain after 12Z. Flow
will remain unsettled over Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
and thunderstorms will return Tuesday after about 18-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KMSO 212123
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday...

...Much cooler with low snow levels on Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening along a
line from around Salmon Idaho to Butte Montana. These storms are
expected to remain weak with limited instability in the area.

The first in a series of impulses is forecast to slide northward
through Central Idaho Tuesday morning, bringing a round of showers
and thunderstorms from that area northward into Western MT into
the early afternoon. By the afternoon hours, more widespread
coverage of storms is expected as instability increases with
daytime heating. The main threat at this time appears to be brief
heavy rain, although gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled
out.

Wednesday...An unseasonably strong upper level low approaching
the region will bring numerous thunderstorms to north central
Idaho and western Montana. Models have been consistently showing a
shortwave moving through the area early Wednesday morning. A brief
break may be possible mid morning on Wednesday before another
stronger wave moves in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be more
widespread in the afternoon with some severe storms possible. At
this point the best instability looks to be across western
Montana. The main threats with the thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon will be damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms will be
moving fairly quickly but brief intense rain could also create
isolated areas of flash flooding with the recent burn scars of
particular concern.

Wednesday evening through Thursday...A powerful cold front is
expected to pass through late Wednesday evening and overnight.
This will cause wind speeds to increase with wind gusts up to 30
mph for valleys and area lakes. High elevation passes in northwest
Montana such as Logan pass could see wind gusts of 60 mph on
Thursday. Snow levels could lower to the peaks in Glacier NP
vicinity where a few flakes are possible. High temperatures will
also be well below normal, especially in northwest Montana where
highs are forecast to be in the 40s to 50s in the terrain and 60s
in the valleys.

Drier weather and a warming trend is expected from Friday into
next weekend as a ridge builds over the Northern Rockies.
Temperatures look to rebound to above normal, with lower-elevation
valleys seeing 90s for highs. Moisture may begin to work its way
northward to Northern ID and Western MT and bring a return of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few weak showers/thunderstorms will linger into the evening
hours over SW Montana and N Central ID, possibly affecting KBTM
and KSMN vicinity. A disturbance moving northward through the area
overnight will bring another chance of showers/thunder to Western
MT and Central ID by mid-morning Tuesday, mostly to KMSO and KGPI,
then impacting all terminals by the afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 212123
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday...

...Much cooler with low snow levels on Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening along a
line from around Salmon Idaho to Butte Montana. These storms are
expected to remain weak with limited instability in the area.

The first in a series of impulses is forecast to slide northward
through Central Idaho Tuesday morning, bringing a round of showers
and thunderstorms from that area northward into Western MT into
the early afternoon. By the afternoon hours, more widespread
coverage of storms is expected as instability increases with
daytime heating. The main threat at this time appears to be brief
heavy rain, although gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled
out.

Wednesday...An unseasonably strong upper level low approaching
the region will bring numerous thunderstorms to north central
Idaho and western Montana. Models have been consistently showing a
shortwave moving through the area early Wednesday morning. A brief
break may be possible mid morning on Wednesday before another
stronger wave moves in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be more
widespread in the afternoon with some severe storms possible. At
this point the best instability looks to be across western
Montana. The main threats with the thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon will be damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms will be
moving fairly quickly but brief intense rain could also create
isolated areas of flash flooding with the recent burn scars of
particular concern.

Wednesday evening through Thursday...A powerful cold front is
expected to pass through late Wednesday evening and overnight.
This will cause wind speeds to increase with wind gusts up to 30
mph for valleys and area lakes. High elevation passes in northwest
Montana such as Logan pass could see wind gusts of 60 mph on
Thursday. Snow levels could lower to the peaks in Glacier NP
vicinity where a few flakes are possible. High temperatures will
also be well below normal, especially in northwest Montana where
highs are forecast to be in the 40s to 50s in the terrain and 60s
in the valleys.

Drier weather and a warming trend is expected from Friday into
next weekend as a ridge builds over the Northern Rockies.
Temperatures look to rebound to above normal, with lower-elevation
valleys seeing 90s for highs. Moisture may begin to work its way
northward to Northern ID and Western MT and bring a return of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few weak showers/thunderstorms will linger into the evening
hours over SW Montana and N Central ID, possibly affecting KBTM
and KSMN vicinity. A disturbance moving northward through the area
overnight will bring another chance of showers/thunder to Western
MT and Central ID by mid-morning Tuesday, mostly to KMSO and KGPI,
then impacting all terminals by the afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter!
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Missoula.gov
https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula









000
FXUS65 KMSO 212123
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday...

...Much cooler with low snow levels on Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening along a
line from around Salmon Idaho to Butte Montana. These storms are
expected to remain weak with limited instability in the area.

The first in a series of impulses is forecast to slide northward
through Central Idaho Tuesday morning, bringing a round of showers
and thunderstorms from that area northward into Western MT into
the early afternoon. By the afternoon hours, more widespread
coverage of storms is expected as instability increases with
daytime heating. The main threat at this time appears to be brief
heavy rain, although gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled
out.

Wednesday...An unseasonably strong upper level low approaching
the region will bring numerous thunderstorms to north central
Idaho and western Montana. Models have been consistently showing a
shortwave moving through the area early Wednesday morning. A brief
break may be possible mid morning on Wednesday before another
stronger wave moves in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be more
widespread in the afternoon with some severe storms possible. At
this point the best instability looks to be across western
Montana. The main threats with the thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon will be damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms will be
moving fairly quickly but brief intense rain could also create
isolated areas of flash flooding with the recent burn scars of
particular concern.

Wednesday evening through Thursday...A powerful cold front is
expected to pass through late Wednesday evening and overnight.
This will cause wind speeds to increase with wind gusts up to 30
mph for valleys and area lakes. High elevation passes in northwest
Montana such as Logan pass could see wind gusts of 60 mph on
Thursday. Snow levels could lower to the peaks in Glacier NP
vicinity where a few flakes are possible. High temperatures will
also be well below normal, especially in northwest Montana where
highs are forecast to be in the 40s to 50s in the terrain and 60s
in the valleys.

Drier weather and a warming trend is expected from Friday into
next weekend as a ridge builds over the Northern Rockies.
Temperatures look to rebound to above normal, with lower-elevation
valleys seeing 90s for highs. Moisture may begin to work its way
northward to Northern ID and Western MT and bring a return of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few weak showers/thunderstorms will linger into the evening
hours over SW Montana and N Central ID, possibly affecting KBTM
and KSMN vicinity. A disturbance moving northward through the area
overnight will bring another chance of showers/thunder to Western
MT and Central ID by mid-morning Tuesday, mostly to KMSO and KGPI,
then impacting all terminals by the afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula









000
FXUS65 KMSO 212123
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday...

...Much cooler with low snow levels on Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening along a
line from around Salmon Idaho to Butte Montana. These storms are
expected to remain weak with limited instability in the area.

The first in a series of impulses is forecast to slide northward
through Central Idaho Tuesday morning, bringing a round of showers
and thunderstorms from that area northward into Western MT into
the early afternoon. By the afternoon hours, more widespread
coverage of storms is expected as instability increases with
daytime heating. The main threat at this time appears to be brief
heavy rain, although gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled
out.

Wednesday...An unseasonably strong upper level low approaching
the region will bring numerous thunderstorms to north central
Idaho and western Montana. Models have been consistently showing a
shortwave moving through the area early Wednesday morning. A brief
break may be possible mid morning on Wednesday before another
stronger wave moves in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be more
widespread in the afternoon with some severe storms possible. At
this point the best instability looks to be across western
Montana. The main threats with the thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon will be damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms will be
moving fairly quickly but brief intense rain could also create
isolated areas of flash flooding with the recent burn scars of
particular concern.

Wednesday evening through Thursday...A powerful cold front is
expected to pass through late Wednesday evening and overnight.
This will cause wind speeds to increase with wind gusts up to 30
mph for valleys and area lakes. High elevation passes in northwest
Montana such as Logan pass could see wind gusts of 60 mph on
Thursday. Snow levels could lower to the peaks in Glacier NP
vicinity where a few flakes are possible. High temperatures will
also be well below normal, especially in northwest Montana where
highs are forecast to be in the 40s to 50s in the terrain and 60s
in the valleys.

Drier weather and a warming trend is expected from Friday into
next weekend as a ridge builds over the Northern Rockies.
Temperatures look to rebound to above normal, with lower-elevation
valleys seeing 90s for highs. Moisture may begin to work its way
northward to Northern ID and Western MT and bring a return of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few weak showers/thunderstorms will linger into the evening
hours over SW Montana and N Central ID, possibly affecting KBTM
and KSMN vicinity. A disturbance moving northward through the area
overnight will bring another chance of showers/thunder to Western
MT and Central ID by mid-morning Tuesday, mostly to KMSO and KGPI,
then impacting all terminals by the afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter!
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https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula









000
FXUS65 KTFX 212102
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads southward
behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT tonight, a
shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues. Forecast models
are showing decent agreement that moisture along the west side of
the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion of today`s
trof that will be draped over central MT, creating scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the central
counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective activity
will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast through Wed
morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed aftn/eve as
widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind shear
develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along the
Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all indicate
increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not quite in
synch just yet on location and timing for the worst activity.
However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas along and
north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime location
for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some potential that
the area may spread south to around Helena and Lewistown. We will
continue to refine the threat area and timing with upcoming model
runs tonight and tomorrow.
Waranauskas


Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 212102
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads southward
behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT tonight, a
shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues. Forecast models
are showing decent agreement that moisture along the west side of
the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion of today`s
trof that will be draped over central MT, creating scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the central
counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective activity
will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast through Wed
morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed aftn/eve as
widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind shear
develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along the
Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all indicate
increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not quite in
synch just yet on location and timing for the worst activity.
However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas along and
north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime location
for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some potential that
the area may spread south to around Helena and Lewistown. We will
continue to refine the threat area and timing with upcoming model
runs tonight and tomorrow.
Waranauskas


Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 212102
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads southward
behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT tonight, a
shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues. Forecast models
are showing decent agreement that moisture along the west side of
the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion of today`s
trof that will be draped over central MT, creating scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the central
counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective activity
will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast through Wed
morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed aftn/eve as
widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind shear
develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along the
Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all indicate
increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not quite in
synch just yet on location and timing for the worst activity.
However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas along and
north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime location
for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some potential that
the area may spread south to around Helena and Lewistown. We will
continue to refine the threat area and timing with upcoming model
runs tonight and tomorrow.
Waranauskas


Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 212102
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
This Afternoon through Wednesday Evening...Weak upper-level trof
continues to move across southern Alberta and northern MT
accompanied by thin plumes of Pacific moisture that are already
firing bands of low-topped, pulse-type thunderstorms along and south
of line from Butte/Helena to Lewistown.  Coverage of storms should
increase a bit over southwest MT into this evening as additional
upstream moisture arrives into the area.  Could see one or two cells
briefly reach moderate or strong intensity, but severe weather is
not expected through tonight.  Meanwhile, much of the Hiline and
central MT will remain precip-free as drier airmass spreads southward
behind the trof axis.  As the trof heads into ern MT tonight, a
shortwave ridge will move in from the west on Tues. Forecast models
are showing decent agreement that moisture along the west side of
the ridge will interact with the weak, tail-end portion of today`s
trof that will be draped over central MT, creating scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across the central
counties and southern Rocky Mtn Front.  That convective activity
will dissipate Tues night and quiet weather is forecast through Wed
morning. But conditions take a more serious turn Wed aftn/eve as
widespread high amounts of instability and vertical wind shear
develop over our region ahead of a strong weather system along the
Pacific Coast.  Parameters from latest forecast models all indicate
increasing potential for severe storms, but models are not quite in
synch just yet on location and timing for the worst activity.
However, at this time, there is some consensus that areas along and
north of a Lincoln-Great Falls-Havre line may be the prime location
for large hail and strong outflow winds...with some potential that
the area may spread south to around Helena and Lewistown. We will
continue to refine the threat area and timing with upcoming model
runs tonight and tomorrow.
Waranauskas


Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  62  88 /  20  30  20  50
CTB  51  80  55  86 /  10  40  20  50
HLN  58  87  60  91 /  40  40  30  50
BZN  53  86  54  91 /  50  30  30  20
WEY  40  78  42  82 /  50  20  10  10
DLN  52  83  53  87 /  50  50  30  30
HVR  54  88  59  92 /  10  30  20  30
LWT  56  86  58  90 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 212048
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
TODAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.

THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AN MCS
IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BEHIND
THE WAVE HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE SECONDARY WAVE IS
NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA...WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG. EXPECT TO SEEM SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FURTHER CONFIRM
THIS THINKING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER...WE EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ON THE
WHOLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RISING HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL ZONES. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. THE TWO LOCATIONS OF INTEREST WILL BE 1/
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MISSOULA TO GREAT FALLS WHERE
THE BETTER FORCING EXISTS FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE AND 2/ ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MONTANA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEER.
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE FIRE WEATHER FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND PERHAPS SHERIDAN COUNTY WY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES SHOWING
A RELATIVELY CLASSIC BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE
12 UTC GFS HOLDING WARMER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE OVER MORE OF THE AREA
LONGER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS SIMULATE VERTICAL MIXING TO
ALMOST 500 MB OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD PUSH HIGHS TO 100 F IN
SOME PLACES LIKE BILLINGS...MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES INDEED OCCUR WITH A GFS-LIKE TIMING. GUSTY WINDS WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT SCENARIO...SO WE MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE...A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
500-MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER /IN THE 80S F/ THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 90S F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE PLAINS. WE LEANED ON
CONTINUITY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST...BUT AS
VEGETATION AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS WEEK
IT/S POSSIBLE HIGHS WILL END UP A BIT WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A SMALL RISK OF LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 063/095 064/096 058/084 057/085 058/086 059/090
    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 054/089 055/093 055/088 050/083 049/083 049/088 051/090
    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 059/092 060/099 061/097 057/086 056/086 057/088 058/091
    31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 063/090 065/095 066/097 059/085 058/085 059/086 059/088
    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/090 062/097 064/097 059/085 058/085 058/085 058/088
    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 058/086 060/090 061/092 057/083 053/083 054/083 054/084
    43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
SHR 055/090 058/096 058/096 054/084 053/084 053/085 054/087
    31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 212048
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
TODAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.

THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED INTO NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AN MCS
IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BEHIND
THE WAVE HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE SECONDARY WAVE IS
NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA...WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG. EXPECT TO SEEM SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE APPROACHES. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FURTHER CONFIRM
THIS THINKING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER...WE EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE ON THE
WHOLE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RISING HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL ZONES. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. THE TWO LOCATIONS OF INTEREST WILL BE 1/
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MISSOULA TO GREAT FALLS WHERE
THE BETTER FORCING EXISTS FROM THE PACIFIC WAVE AND 2/ ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MONTANA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THOSE
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEER.
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WHICH COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE FIRE WEATHER FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND PERHAPS SHERIDAN COUNTY WY
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES SHOWING
A RELATIVELY CLASSIC BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE
12 UTC GFS HOLDING WARMER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE OVER MORE OF THE AREA
LONGER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS SIMULATE VERTICAL MIXING TO
ALMOST 500 MB OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD PUSH HIGHS TO 100 F IN
SOME PLACES LIKE BILLINGS...MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOES INDEED OCCUR WITH A GFS-LIKE TIMING. GUSTY WINDS WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT SCENARIO...SO WE MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE...A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
500-MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER /IN THE 80S F/ THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 90S F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE PLAINS. WE LEANED ON
CONTINUITY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FORECAST...BUT AS
VEGETATION AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS WEEK
IT/S POSSIBLE HIGHS WILL END UP A BIT WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A SMALL RISK OF LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/090 063/095 064/096 058/084 057/085 058/086 059/090
    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 054/089 055/093 055/088 050/083 049/083 049/088 051/090
    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 059/092 060/099 061/097 057/086 056/086 057/088 058/091
    31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 063/090 065/095 066/097 059/085 058/085 059/086 059/088
    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/090 062/097 064/097 059/085 058/085 058/085 058/088
    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 058/086 060/090 061/092 057/083 053/083 054/083 054/084
    43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U
SHR 055/090 058/096 058/096 054/084 053/084 053/085 054/087
    31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 212034
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY IS HIT AND MISS.
SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MONTANA.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND MAY
SET OFF ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW
INCREASING 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG WITH MUCAPE ACROSS THE CWA
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DUE TO PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED NOT TO PUT WORDING INTO THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT LINEAR FEATURES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...DO
FEEL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STORMS PUSH
EAST DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SUPERCELLULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF ANY LINEAR FEATURES THAT
ORGANIZE. THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO REASSESS THE THREAT.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS WITH STORMS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
YIELD A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THE MOMENT. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRYLINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...
OUR AREA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER KPIR AND A HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM CENTRAL SK. THE TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL MEAN SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT THEN DECREASING AFTER 06Z.

SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING WITH KGDV LIKELY THE ONLY SITE SEEING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM HEAVIER RAIN. THINGS GENERALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE
INTO ND AFTER 06Z. FRANSEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RH`S DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RH`S WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S.
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL WITH READINGS IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE PRETTY STRONG ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. RH`S WILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL MY BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW RH`S AND WINDS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING ON THURSDAY.

FRANSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 212034
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY IS HIT AND MISS.
SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MONTANA.

AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND MAY
SET OFF ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. SREF PLUMES SHOW
INCREASING 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG WITH MUCAPE ACROSS THE CWA
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS
SUCH...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DUE TO PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY
DECIDED NOT TO PUT WORDING INTO THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT LINEAR FEATURES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...DO
FEEL DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STORMS PUSH
EAST DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SUPERCELLULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF ANY LINEAR FEATURES THAT
ORGANIZE. THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY MINIMIZE THAT POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO REASSESS THE THREAT.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS WITH STORMS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AND LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
YIELD A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THE MOMENT. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRYLINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...
OUR AREA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER KPIR AND A HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM CENTRAL SK. THE TIGHTENING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL MEAN SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT THEN DECREASING AFTER 06Z.

SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING WITH KGDV LIKELY THE ONLY SITE SEEING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM HEAVIER RAIN. THINGS GENERALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE
INTO ND AFTER 06Z. FRANSEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE RH`S DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR THE WEST END OF THE CMR AND PETROLEUM COUNTY...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THERE BUT THE RH`S WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S.
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY POOR AS WELL WITH READINGS IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE PRETTY STRONG ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. RH`S WILL BE PRETTY DRY WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE TEENS.

OVERALL MY BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS
LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DRY LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN LOW RH`S AND WINDS SHIFTING AND
INCREASING ON THURSDAY.

FRANSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 211728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Two bands of rain showers associated with a weak trof skirting the
US/Can border, one from just north of Lincoln up to central Hill
County and the other east of White Sulphur Springs through Blaine
County, will continue to move to the northeast through midday.
Haven`t seen any lightning with this activity over past hour or so,
but will keep a mention of possible short-lived thunderstorms as a
few cells may briefly strengthen. Meanwhile, latest webcams and
satellite imagery show clearing skies behind the trof axis have
begun to move into the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier NP area and should
make slow progress to the southeast through the day.  Forecast still
on track for additional moisture, currently over central ID, to move
into southwest and portions of central MT, generating scattered
thunderstorms this aftn/eve while drying conditions move into the
Hiline counties.  A few of the southwest MT storms may briefly reach
moderate-to-strong intensity, but severe weather is not expected at
this time. Main forecast adjustments this morning were to increase
chances of precipitation for locations north and east of Great Falls
this morning, in line with current radar imagery, and decrease high
temperatures a few degrees due to the widespread cloud cover that
will delay surface heating.
Waranauskas

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  40  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  60  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 211728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Two bands of rain showers associated with a weak trof skirting the
US/Can border, one from just north of Lincoln up to central Hill
County and the other east of White Sulphur Springs through Blaine
County, will continue to move to the northeast through midday.
Haven`t seen any lightning with this activity over past hour or so,
but will keep a mention of possible short-lived thunderstorms as a
few cells may briefly strengthen. Meanwhile, latest webcams and
satellite imagery show clearing skies behind the trof axis have
begun to move into the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier NP area and should
make slow progress to the southeast through the day.  Forecast still
on track for additional moisture, currently over central ID, to move
into southwest and portions of central MT, generating scattered
thunderstorms this aftn/eve while drying conditions move into the
Hiline counties.  A few of the southwest MT storms may briefly reach
moderate-to-strong intensity, but severe weather is not expected at
this time. Main forecast adjustments this morning were to increase
chances of precipitation for locations north and east of Great Falls
this morning, in line with current radar imagery, and decrease high
temperatures a few degrees due to the widespread cloud cover that
will delay surface heating.
Waranauskas

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  40  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  60  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 211728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Two bands of rain showers associated with a weak trof skirting the
US/Can border, one from just north of Lincoln up to central Hill
County and the other east of White Sulphur Springs through Blaine
County, will continue to move to the northeast through midday.
Haven`t seen any lightning with this activity over past hour or so,
but will keep a mention of possible short-lived thunderstorms as a
few cells may briefly strengthen. Meanwhile, latest webcams and
satellite imagery show clearing skies behind the trof axis have
begun to move into the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier NP area and should
make slow progress to the southeast through the day.  Forecast still
on track for additional moisture, currently over central ID, to move
into southwest and portions of central MT, generating scattered
thunderstorms this aftn/eve while drying conditions move into the
Hiline counties.  A few of the southwest MT storms may briefly reach
moderate-to-strong intensity, but severe weather is not expected at
this time. Main forecast adjustments this morning were to increase
chances of precipitation for locations north and east of Great Falls
this morning, in line with current radar imagery, and decrease high
temperatures a few degrees due to the widespread cloud cover that
will delay surface heating.
Waranauskas

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  40  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  60  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov











000
FXUS65 KTFX 211728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Two bands of rain showers associated with a weak trof skirting the
US/Can border, one from just north of Lincoln up to central Hill
County and the other east of White Sulphur Springs through Blaine
County, will continue to move to the northeast through midday.
Haven`t seen any lightning with this activity over past hour or so,
but will keep a mention of possible short-lived thunderstorms as a
few cells may briefly strengthen. Meanwhile, latest webcams and
satellite imagery show clearing skies behind the trof axis have
begun to move into the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier NP area and should
make slow progress to the southeast through the day.  Forecast still
on track for additional moisture, currently over central ID, to move
into southwest and portions of central MT, generating scattered
thunderstorms this aftn/eve while drying conditions move into the
Hiline counties.  A few of the southwest MT storms may briefly reach
moderate-to-strong intensity, but severe weather is not expected at
this time. Main forecast adjustments this morning were to increase
chances of precipitation for locations north and east of Great Falls
this morning, in line with current radar imagery, and decrease high
temperatures a few degrees due to the widespread cloud cover that
will delay surface heating.
Waranauskas

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
The rain showers across Central Montana are associated with a
shortwave that will be moving into Eastern Montana during the day.
This will allow the air mass over central and northern portions of
the area to stabilize and showers will diminish. However, flow will
remain unsettled across Southwest Montana and a chance of showers
will continue.  A second shortwave will approach Western Montana
tonight and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region again Tuesday. Local MVFR conditions are possible near
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  40  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  60  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211633
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED A MENTION THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF
BILLINGS. THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY
LITTLE...WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO A BREAK EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS HAVE
ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
AROUND TO JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
HINGE ON SOME CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SW. AS OF 2 AM THERE
REMAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA...BUT TO OUR SW INTO
IDAHO THE COVERAGE IS GREATER...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ALREADY...PERHAPS
UP TO 1.2 INCHES IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
1.05 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GGW RAOB AT 00Z LAST EVENING.

A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE MORNING BASED ON NEARBY RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL COOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...W/
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 9C...SO MID LEVEL CAPPING WHICH IS OFTEN AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION IN MID SUMMER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND FEEL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY TODAY. AS FOR SEVERE WX...OUR FAR EAST COULD SEE A FEW
NEAR-SEVERE STORMS BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY GREATER EAST OF OUR
CWA AS THE SREF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. IT APPEARS THAT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN OUR EAST TOO EARLY IN THE DAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVAL THIS MORNING HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP IN OUR WEST BEFORE
18Z...AND HAVE RAISED AFTN POPS IN OUR EAST TO HIGHER SCATTERED.
THERE IS A SECONDARY PV MAX MOVING THRU OUR AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE WET...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND RISING
HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN OUR WEST AND
NORTH TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
+16C IN OUR SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN BY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA PER THE ONSET OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE RISK
OF LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 061/090 063/095 062/093 057/084 057/084 057/086
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 084 054/089 055/093 055/091 050/083 049/083 049/088
    5/T 52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 089 059/092 060/099 060/094 056/085 055/085 056/087
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 063/090 065/095 063/093 059/085 058/085 059/084
    4/T 42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U
4BQ 091 061/090 062/097 062/096 058/084 057/084 058/084
    4/T 32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 059/086 060/090 059/091 056/083 052/082 056/081
    5/T 43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 090 055/090 058/096 057/095 052/084 052/084 053/084
    3/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211633
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED A MENTION THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF
BILLINGS. THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY
LITTLE...WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO A BREAK EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS HAVE
ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
AROUND TO JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
HINGE ON SOME CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SW. AS OF 2 AM THERE
REMAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA...BUT TO OUR SW INTO
IDAHO THE COVERAGE IS GREATER...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ALREADY...PERHAPS
UP TO 1.2 INCHES IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
1.05 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GGW RAOB AT 00Z LAST EVENING.

A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE MORNING BASED ON NEARBY RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL COOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...W/
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 9C...SO MID LEVEL CAPPING WHICH IS OFTEN AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION IN MID SUMMER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND FEEL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY TODAY. AS FOR SEVERE WX...OUR FAR EAST COULD SEE A FEW
NEAR-SEVERE STORMS BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY GREATER EAST OF OUR
CWA AS THE SREF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. IT APPEARS THAT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN OUR EAST TOO EARLY IN THE DAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVAL THIS MORNING HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP IN OUR WEST BEFORE
18Z...AND HAVE RAISED AFTN POPS IN OUR EAST TO HIGHER SCATTERED.
THERE IS A SECONDARY PV MAX MOVING THRU OUR AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE WET...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND RISING
HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN OUR WEST AND
NORTH TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
+16C IN OUR SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN BY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA PER THE ONSET OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE RISK
OF LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 061/090 063/095 062/093 057/084 057/084 057/086
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 084 054/089 055/093 055/091 050/083 049/083 049/088
    5/T 52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 089 059/092 060/099 060/094 056/085 055/085 056/087
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 063/090 065/095 063/093 059/085 058/085 059/084
    4/T 42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U
4BQ 091 061/090 062/097 062/096 058/084 057/084 058/084
    4/T 32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 059/086 060/090 059/091 056/083 052/082 056/081
    5/T 43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 090 055/090 058/096 057/095 052/084 052/084 053/084
    3/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211633
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED A MENTION THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF
BILLINGS. THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY
LITTLE...WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO A BREAK EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS HAVE
ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
AROUND TO JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
HINGE ON SOME CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SW. AS OF 2 AM THERE
REMAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA...BUT TO OUR SW INTO
IDAHO THE COVERAGE IS GREATER...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ALREADY...PERHAPS
UP TO 1.2 INCHES IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
1.05 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GGW RAOB AT 00Z LAST EVENING.

A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE MORNING BASED ON NEARBY RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL COOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...W/
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 9C...SO MID LEVEL CAPPING WHICH IS OFTEN AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION IN MID SUMMER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND FEEL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY TODAY. AS FOR SEVERE WX...OUR FAR EAST COULD SEE A FEW
NEAR-SEVERE STORMS BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY GREATER EAST OF OUR
CWA AS THE SREF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. IT APPEARS THAT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN OUR EAST TOO EARLY IN THE DAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVAL THIS MORNING HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP IN OUR WEST BEFORE
18Z...AND HAVE RAISED AFTN POPS IN OUR EAST TO HIGHER SCATTERED.
THERE IS A SECONDARY PV MAX MOVING THRU OUR AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE WET...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND RISING
HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN OUR WEST AND
NORTH TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
+16C IN OUR SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN BY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA PER THE ONSET OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE RISK
OF LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 061/090 063/095 062/093 057/084 057/084 057/086
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 084 054/089 055/093 055/091 050/083 049/083 049/088
    5/T 52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 089 059/092 060/099 060/094 056/085 055/085 056/087
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 063/090 065/095 063/093 059/085 058/085 059/084
    4/T 42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U
4BQ 091 061/090 062/097 062/096 058/084 057/084 058/084
    4/T 32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 059/086 060/090 059/091 056/083 052/082 056/081
    5/T 43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 090 055/090 058/096 057/095 052/084 052/084 053/084
    3/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211633
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED A MENTION THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF
BILLINGS. THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY
LITTLE...WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO A BREAK EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS HAVE
ADDED CONFIDENCE TO THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
AROUND TO JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS
POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
HINGE ON SOME CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SW. AS OF 2 AM THERE
REMAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA...BUT TO OUR SW INTO
IDAHO THE COVERAGE IS GREATER...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ALREADY...PERHAPS
UP TO 1.2 INCHES IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
1.05 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GGW RAOB AT 00Z LAST EVENING.

A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE MORNING BASED ON NEARBY RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL COOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...W/
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 9C...SO MID LEVEL CAPPING WHICH IS OFTEN AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION IN MID SUMMER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND FEEL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY TODAY. AS FOR SEVERE WX...OUR FAR EAST COULD SEE A FEW
NEAR-SEVERE STORMS BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY GREATER EAST OF OUR
CWA AS THE SREF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. IT APPEARS THAT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN OUR EAST TOO EARLY IN THE DAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVAL THIS MORNING HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP IN OUR WEST BEFORE
18Z...AND HAVE RAISED AFTN POPS IN OUR EAST TO HIGHER SCATTERED.
THERE IS A SECONDARY PV MAX MOVING THRU OUR AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE WET...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND RISING
HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN OUR WEST AND
NORTH TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
+16C IN OUR SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN BY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA PER THE ONSET OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE RISK
OF LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 061/090 063/095 062/093 057/084 057/084 057/086
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 084 054/089 055/093 055/091 050/083 049/083 049/088
    5/T 52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 089 059/092 060/099 060/094 056/085 055/085 056/087
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 063/090 065/095 063/093 059/085 058/085 059/084
    4/T 42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U
4BQ 091 061/090 062/097 062/096 058/084 057/084 058/084
    4/T 32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 059/086 060/090 059/091 056/083 052/082 056/081
    5/T 43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 090 055/090 058/096 057/095 052/084 052/084 053/084
    3/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 211558
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Two bands of rain showers associated with a weak trof skirting the
US/Can border, one from just north of Lincoln up to central Hill
County and the other east of White Sulphur Springs through Blaine
County, will continue to move to the northeast through midday.
Haven`t seen any lightning with this activity over past hour or so,
but will keep a mention of possible short-lived thunderstorms as a
few cells may briefly strengthen. Meanwhile, latest webcams and
satellite imagery show clearing skies behind the trof axis have
begun to move into the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier NP area and should
make slow progress to the southeast through the day.  Forecast still
on track for additional moisture, currently over central ID, to move
into southwest and portions of central MT, generating scattered
thunderstorms this aftn/eve while drying conditions move into the
Hiline counties.  A few of the southwest MT storms may briefly reach
moderate-to-strong intensity, but severe weather is not expected at
this time. Main forecast adjustments this morning were to increase
chances of precipitation for locations north and east of Great Falls
this morning, in line with current radar imagery, and decrease high
temperatures a few degrees due to the widespread cloud cover that
will delay surface heating.
Waranauskas

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A moist southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today but
some drying could occur in the far north during the day. Unlike the
typical summer scenario of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms..expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
not only during the afternoon and evening but also during the
morning and late night hours as well. There will be a threat of
local MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain in the north this morning
and over the south this afternoon. For forecast wind groups other
than VRB ones or winds over 10 knots..confidence is low with
forecast wind directions. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  40  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  60  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 211558
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Two bands of rain showers associated with a weak trof skirting the
US/Can border, one from just north of Lincoln up to central Hill
County and the other east of White Sulphur Springs through Blaine
County, will continue to move to the northeast through midday.
Haven`t seen any lightning with this activity over past hour or so,
but will keep a mention of possible short-lived thunderstorms as a
few cells may briefly strengthen. Meanwhile, latest webcams and
satellite imagery show clearing skies behind the trof axis have
begun to move into the Rocky Mtn Front/Glacier NP area and should
make slow progress to the southeast through the day.  Forecast still
on track for additional moisture, currently over central ID, to move
into southwest and portions of central MT, generating scattered
thunderstorms this aftn/eve while drying conditions move into the
Hiline counties.  A few of the southwest MT storms may briefly reach
moderate-to-strong intensity, but severe weather is not expected at
this time. Main forecast adjustments this morning were to increase
chances of precipitation for locations north and east of Great Falls
this morning, in line with current radar imagery, and decrease high
temperatures a few degrees due to the widespread cloud cover that
will delay surface heating.
Waranauskas

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A moist southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today but
some drying could occur in the far north during the day. Unlike the
typical summer scenario of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms..expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
not only during the afternoon and evening but also during the
morning and late night hours as well. There will be a threat of
local MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain in the north this morning
and over the south this afternoon. For forecast wind groups other
than VRB ones or winds over 10 knots..confidence is low with
forecast wind directions. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  40  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  60  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KGGW 211527
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
OVERALL TRENDS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON OUTCOMES BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE WETTER NAM
SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MCCONE AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.

DID KEEP AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION FOR NOW
BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT GLASGOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOMES EXISTS OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS... CENTRAL US PLAINS... WYOMING... AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS AND RIDGES EXIST
ACROSS CANADA ALLOWING WEAK BURSTS OF COLD AIR TO INTRUDE ACROSS
THE BORDER INTO THE US. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONTANA AND IS DRAGGING PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW WEAK
MID LEVEL JETS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH COULD SET OFF
MODERATE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OR COMBINE DURING PEAK HEATING FOR
STORMS WHICH COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE COMPONENT OR TWO. THESE
JETS ARE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND IN REALITY WILL REQUIRE
WATCHING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS TO CATCH
CORRECTLY. AS OF 2AM ONE JET SETS OVER NEVADA AND IS PEGGED FOR
THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID DAY. A SECOND SLOWER JET EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO AND MAY CAUSE SOME RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING UP INTO CANADA... AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER JET IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN CWA
AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTLINE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL AND COAX THE HEAT DOME TO THE SOUTH TO FORM A RIDGE UP
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. IN RESPONSE CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHERE JETS COULD STILL
INTERACT... A COUPLING COULD OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BEFORE THE EVENING
AND MAY MAKE SOME OF THEM SEVERE.   GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRYLINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY THIS MORNING BETWEEN KOLF AND
KSDY. EXPECT TO SEE THAT LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND REALLY START
TO PICK UP AT KGDV AND KSDY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. 18Z TAFS AT THOSE
TWO LOCATIONS WILL INCLUDE CBS IN THEM.
LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA DEEPENS. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM...PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. FRANSEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
IN THE MID TEENS IN ZONES 135 136 AND 137. TO ADD TO THE
CONCERN...COULD ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPARKING LIGHTNING CONCERNS. THERE ISN`T A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH EITHER SO THAT ADDS TO THE CONCERN AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 211527
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND
OVERALL TRENDS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON OUTCOMES BUT TRENDED TOWARD THE WETTER NAM
SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH SEEMED TO CAPTURE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MCCONE AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.

DID KEEP AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION FOR NOW
BUT MAY NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT GLASGOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOMES EXISTS OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS... CENTRAL US PLAINS... WYOMING... AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS AND RIDGES EXIST
ACROSS CANADA ALLOWING WEAK BURSTS OF COLD AIR TO INTRUDE ACROSS
THE BORDER INTO THE US. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONTANA AND IS DRAGGING PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW WEAK
MID LEVEL JETS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH COULD SET OFF
MODERATE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OR COMBINE DURING PEAK HEATING FOR
STORMS WHICH COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE COMPONENT OR TWO. THESE
JETS ARE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND IN REALITY WILL REQUIRE
WATCHING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS TO CATCH
CORRECTLY. AS OF 2AM ONE JET SETS OVER NEVADA AND IS PEGGED FOR
THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID DAY. A SECOND SLOWER JET EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO AND MAY CAUSE SOME RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING UP INTO CANADA... AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER JET IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN CWA
AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTLINE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL AND COAX THE HEAT DOME TO THE SOUTH TO FORM A RIDGE UP
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. IN RESPONSE CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHERE JETS COULD STILL
INTERACT... A COUPLING COULD OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BEFORE THE EVENING
AND MAY MAKE SOME OF THEM SEVERE.   GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRYLINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY THIS MORNING BETWEEN KOLF AND
KSDY. EXPECT TO SEE THAT LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND REALLY START
TO PICK UP AT KGDV AND KSDY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. 18Z TAFS AT THOSE
TWO LOCATIONS WILL INCLUDE CBS IN THEM.
LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA DEEPENS. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM...PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. FRANSEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
IN THE MID TEENS IN ZONES 135 136 AND 137. TO ADD TO THE
CONCERN...COULD ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPARKING LIGHTNING CONCERNS. THERE ISN`T A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH EITHER SO THAT ADDS TO THE CONCERN AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 211236
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
636 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Have increased the chances of rain in the area of rain that
extended from western Teton and northern Lewis and Clark counties
through eastern Pondera County and into Toole and Liberty
counties. Also increased sky cover for this morning but decreased
it in the far northwest for late this morning. Finally limited the
threat of thunderstorms for this morning to southwest Montana.
Blank

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A moist southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today but
some drying could occur in the far north during the day. Unlike the
typical summer scenario of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms..expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
not only during the afternoon and evening but also during the
morning and late night hours as well. There will be a threat of
local MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain in the north this morning
and over the south this afternoon. For forecast wind groups other
than VRB ones or winds over 10 knots..confidence is low with
forecast wind directions. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014/
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  40  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  60  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 211151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A moist southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today but
some drying could occur in the far north during the day. Unlike the
typical summer scenario of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms..expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
not only during the afternoon and evening but also during the
morning and late night hours as well. There will be a threat of
local MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain in the north this morning
and over the south this afternoon. For forecast wind groups other
than VRB ones or winds over 10 knots..confidence is low with
forecast wind directions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  30  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  50  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 211151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A moist southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today but
some drying could occur in the far north during the day. Unlike the
typical summer scenario of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms..expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
not only during the afternoon and evening but also during the
morning and late night hours as well. There will be a threat of
local MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain in the north this morning
and over the south this afternoon. For forecast wind groups other
than VRB ones or winds over 10 knots..confidence is low with
forecast wind directions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  30  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  50  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 211151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A moist southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today but
some drying could occur in the far north during the day. Unlike the
typical summer scenario of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms..expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
not only during the afternoon and evening but also during the
morning and late night hours as well. There will be a threat of
local MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain in the north this morning
and over the south this afternoon. For forecast wind groups other
than VRB ones or winds over 10 knots..confidence is low with
forecast wind directions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  30  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  50  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 211151
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A moist southwest flow aloft will continue over the area today but
some drying could occur in the far north during the day. Unlike the
typical summer scenario of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms..expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
not only during the afternoon and evening but also during the
morning and late night hours as well. There will be a threat of
local MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain in the north this morning
and over the south this afternoon. For forecast wind groups other
than VRB ones or winds over 10 knots..confidence is low with
forecast wind directions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  30  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  50  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KMSO 210953
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
353 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning...
...Isolated strong thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday...

...Much cooler with low snow levels on Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...An approaching trough of low pressure from the west is
interacting with a shortwave moving north through southern Idaho
early this morning. These two features are creating a band of
precipitation that is becoming increasingly more unstable with
isolated lightning strikes showing up out of stronger showers.
These showers will move from the southwest to northeast this
morning. However, drier air is pushing in behind the main area of
precipitation, so showers will decrease beginning in northwest Montana
followed by north central Idaho and west central Montana this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will remain through the
afternoon in Lemhi County Idaho and southwest Montana in response
to continued shortwave passages.

The weather pattern will be extremely active for the next few
days as a low pressure system moves in to Washington and
eventually clips the region. Idaho and western Montana will lie
beneath southwesterly flow, while the low approaches, and numerous
shortwaves are forecast to pass. The next shortwave is on track to
pass tonight and will spread showers and thunderstorms through
north central Idaho and northwest Montana through Tuesday morning.
The rest of Idaho and western Montana will destabilize through the
afternoon with thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these thunderstorms have a chance to become strong
with gusty winds.

Another shortwave has consistency with model guidance to pass
Wednesday morning, so showers and thunderstorms will begin in
the morning. The main low pressure system will approach on
Wednesday and a cold front is expected to pass Wednesday evening
and overnight. Thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds could
create isolated areas of flash flooding and wind damage into
Wednesday night.

Rain will linger along the northern Montana border with the main
low passing through southern British Columbia/Alberta on Thursday.
High temperatures will be well below normal, especially in
northwest Montana where highs are forecast to be the in the 40s-
50s in the terrain and 60s in the valleys on Thursday.

High pressure is still on track to build back into the region
Thursday night so temperatures will cool off into the 30s for
higher valleys of northwest Montana. The abnormally cool morning for
this time of year may impact sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
will quickly rebound this weekend, with summer-like weather
expected.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers are passing this morning through north central
Idaho and western Montana in response to a shortwave approaching
from the west and another from the south this morning. Isolated
thunderstorms have also developed and will continue to pass
through 21/1500z. Drier air with the shortwave will cause showers
to decrease from north to south this morning. Lemhi County through
Southwest Montana will have showers and thunderstorms, though, into
this afternoon with shortwaves passing through southwesterly flow
aloft. These showers and thunderstorms will impact KSMN and KBTM
into early evening. Another shortwave will pass tonight so showers
and isolated thunderstorms will return to north central Idaho and
northwest Montana.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 210953
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
353 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning...
...Isolated strong thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday...

...Much cooler with low snow levels on Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...An approaching trough of low pressure from the west is
interacting with a shortwave moving north through southern Idaho
early this morning. These two features are creating a band of
precipitation that is becoming increasingly more unstable with
isolated lightning strikes showing up out of stronger showers.
These showers will move from the southwest to northeast this
morning. However, drier air is pushing in behind the main area of
precipitation, so showers will decrease beginning in northwest Montana
followed by north central Idaho and west central Montana this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will remain through the
afternoon in Lemhi County Idaho and southwest Montana in response
to continued shortwave passages.

The weather pattern will be extremely active for the next few
days as a low pressure system moves in to Washington and
eventually clips the region. Idaho and western Montana will lie
beneath southwesterly flow, while the low approaches, and numerous
shortwaves are forecast to pass. The next shortwave is on track to
pass tonight and will spread showers and thunderstorms through
north central Idaho and northwest Montana through Tuesday morning.
The rest of Idaho and western Montana will destabilize through the
afternoon with thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these thunderstorms have a chance to become strong
with gusty winds.

Another shortwave has consistency with model guidance to pass
Wednesday morning, so showers and thunderstorms will begin in
the morning. The main low pressure system will approach on
Wednesday and a cold front is expected to pass Wednesday evening
and overnight. Thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds could
create isolated areas of flash flooding and wind damage into
Wednesday night.

Rain will linger along the northern Montana border with the main
low passing through southern British Columbia/Alberta on Thursday.
High temperatures will be well below normal, especially in
northwest Montana where highs are forecast to be the in the 40s-
50s in the terrain and 60s in the valleys on Thursday.

High pressure is still on track to build back into the region
Thursday night so temperatures will cool off into the 30s for
higher valleys of northwest Montana. The abnormally cool morning for
this time of year may impact sensitive vegetation. Temperatures
will quickly rebound this weekend, with summer-like weather
expected.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers are passing this morning through north central
Idaho and western Montana in response to a shortwave approaching
from the west and another from the south this morning. Isolated
thunderstorms have also developed and will continue to pass
through 21/1500z. Drier air with the shortwave will cause showers
to decrease from north to south this morning. Lemhi County through
Southwest Montana will have showers and thunderstorms, though, into
this afternoon with shortwaves passing through southwesterly flow
aloft. These showers and thunderstorms will impact KSMN and KBTM
into early evening. Another shortwave will pass tonight so showers
and isolated thunderstorms will return to north central Idaho and
northwest Montana.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Missoula.gov
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 210947
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Short-range guidance continues to support development of showers
across the region during the late overnight hours. A few weak
showers are ongoing primarily over Liberty and Hill counties
including KHVR. Showers will continue to move through the area
during the morning hours on Monday. Winds will continue to be
generally light and variable. Gusts should pick back up a bit
across north-central Montana by Monday afternoon. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  30  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  50  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210947
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...A dramatic pattern change is beginning to
occur as the weather pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow
under the influence of a large scale closed low off the Canadian
Pacific Coastal. A few shortwave disturbance being ejected from
this system will move across the area over the next few days along
with moist Pacific flow aloft. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and move across the area. While scattered
showers can be expected during peak heating due to diurnal warming
of the surface...additional support from these upper level
intrusions will allow for strong possibly severe storms to occur
along with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours. Every day will likely experience
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday will have an enhanced chance for strong and severe
thunderstorms...mainly due to strong potentially damaging winds due
to dry air near the surface. By Wednesday afternoon a greater
dewpoint depression, along with warmer temperatures and steeper
lapse rates should allow for a better chance of strong damaging
winds and a slightly increased chance for a hail threat as well.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain near seasonal
values...but should generally increase with each successive day.
Precipitable water values should remain between three quarters of
an inch to a an inch throughout this time period providing ample
moisture aloft to allow for significant rainfall and potential
hail production dependent on cape amounts through the hail growth
zone. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Wednesday evening a weather
disturbance aloft will be moving northeast through the area. This
disturbance is ahead of an upper low that will move into Washington
or far southern B.C. Wednesday night. Although models differ on
details of the precipitation associated with the disturbance have
increased the chances of precipitation especially towards the
Canadian border. Precipitation will come in the form of showers and
thunderstorms and there could be a risk of strong thunderstorms
early in the evening. Thursday afternoon and evening the remnants of
the upper low will swing through the forecast area. Increased low
level downslope could limit the threat of precipitation over the
lower elevations during that time frame. Thursday the flow aloft
should be strong enough for a chance of high winds over Logan Pass
with a small chance elsewhere over the Rocky Mountain Front. Behind
the upper trough a dry airmass will move over the forecast area.
Over the weekend models are on the same page in developing a strong
upper ridge over the western U.S. which could further intensify on
Monday. The upper ridge will result in warming temperatures. It
should also result in no precipitation at least through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Short-range guidance continues to support development of showers
across the region during the late overnight hours. A few weak
showers are ongoing primarily over Liberty and Hill counties
including KHVR. Showers will continue to move through the area
during the morning hours on Monday. Winds will continue to be
generally light and variable. Gusts should pick back up a bit
across north-central Montana by Monday afternoon. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  58  84  61 /  50  30  40  30
CTB  79  51  80  55 /  30  10  50  30
HLN  83  59  88  60 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  82  53  86  52 /  70  50  40  30
WEY  70  40  78  42 /  70  50  30  10
DLN  79  52  82  53 /  70  50  50  30
HVR  83  55  88  59 /  50  10  30  30
LWT  82  57  87  58 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KGGW 210916
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOMES EXISTS OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS... CENTRAL US PLAINS... WYOMING... AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
TO THE NORTH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS AND RIDGES EXIST ACROSS
CANADA ALLOWING WEAK BURSTS OF COLD AIR TO INTRUDE ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO THE US. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONTANA AND IS DRAGGING PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... CURRENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW WEAK
MID LEVEL JETS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH COULD SET OFF
MODERATE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OR COMBINE DURING PEAK HEATING FOR
STORMS WHICH COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE COMPONENT OR TWO.
THESE JETS ARE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND IN REALITY WILL
REQUIRE WATCHING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS TO CATCH
CORRECTLY. AS OF 2AM ONE JET SETS OVER NEVADA AND IS PEGGED FOR
THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID DAY. A SECOND SLOWER JET EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO AND MAY CAUSE SOME RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING UP INTO CANADA... AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER JET IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN CWA
AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTLINE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL AND COAX THE HEAT DOME TO THE SOUTH TO FORM A RIDGE UP
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. IN RESPONSE CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHERE JETS COULD STILL
INTERACT... A COUPLING COULD OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BEFORE THE EVENING
AND MAY MAKE SOME OF THEM SEVERE.   GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRYLINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY AND BEGIN TO PICKUP MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DEEPENS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS SOME MOISTURE IS
BEEN ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CEILINGS ABOVE
FL100. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 210916
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOMES EXISTS OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS... CENTRAL US PLAINS... WYOMING... AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
TO THE NORTH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS AND RIDGES EXIST ACROSS
CANADA ALLOWING WEAK BURSTS OF COLD AIR TO INTRUDE ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO THE US. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONTANA AND IS DRAGGING PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... CURRENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW WEAK
MID LEVEL JETS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH COULD SET OFF
MODERATE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OR COMBINE DURING PEAK HEATING FOR
STORMS WHICH COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE COMPONENT OR TWO.
THESE JETS ARE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND IN REALITY WILL
REQUIRE WATCHING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS TO CATCH
CORRECTLY. AS OF 2AM ONE JET SETS OVER NEVADA AND IS PEGGED FOR
THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID DAY. A SECOND SLOWER JET EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO AND MAY CAUSE SOME RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING UP INTO CANADA... AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER JET IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN CWA
AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
COASTLINE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL AND COAX THE HEAT DOME TO THE SOUTH TO FORM A RIDGE UP
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. IN RESPONSE CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHERE JETS COULD STILL
INTERACT... A COUPLING COULD OCCUR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BEFORE THE EVENING
AND MAY MAKE SOME OF THEM SEVERE.   GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. APPROACH OF THE LOW IS PRECEDED BY LEE TROUGHING
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SET-UP ACROSS THE
CWA THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE PROGRESSING SYSTEM. EC AND
GFS MODELS DISAGREE ON PRECISE LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MOVEMENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

BY FRIDAY..SYSTEM AND DRYLINE ARE EAST OF THE AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BUT BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE AND A WARMING AND DRY TREND IN PLACE BY MONDAY. PPT
WILL BE SCARCE FRIDAY ONWARD DUE TO RIDGING.  MARTIN


&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY AND BEGIN TO PICKUP MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DEEPENS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS SOME MOISTURE IS
BEEN ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CEILINGS ABOVE
FL100. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210827
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
227 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SW. AS OF 2 AM THERE
REMAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA...BUT TO OUR SW INTO
IDAHO THE COVERAGE IS GREATER...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ALREADY...PERHAPS
UP TO 1.2 INCHES IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
1.05 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GGW RAOB AT 00Z LAST EVENING.

A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE MORNING BASED ON NEARBY RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL COOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...W/
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 9C...SO MID LEVEL CAPPING WHICH IS OFTEN AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION IN MID SUMMER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND FEEL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY TODAY. AS FOR SEVERE WX...OUR FAR EAST COULD SEE A FEW
NEAR-SEVERE STORMS BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY GREATER EAST OF OUR
CWA AS THE SREF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. IT APPEARS THAT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN OUR EAST TOO EARLY IN THE DAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVAL THIS MORNING HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP IN OUR WEST BEFORE
18Z...AND HAVE RAISED AFTN POPS IN OUR EAST TO HIGHER SCATTERED.
THERE IS A SECONDARY PV MAX MOVING THRU OUR AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE WET...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND RISING
HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN OUR WEST AND
NORTH TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
+16C IN OUR SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN BY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA PER THE ONSET OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 061/090 063/095 062/093 057/084 057/084 057/086
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 084 054/089 055/093 055/091 050/083 049/083 049/088
    5/T 52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 089 059/092 060/099 060/094 056/085 055/085 056/087
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 063/090 065/095 063/093 059/085 058/085 059/084
    3/T 42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U
4BQ 091 061/090 062/097 062/096 058/084 057/084 058/084
    3/T 32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 059/086 060/090 059/091 056/083 052/082 056/081
    5/T 43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 090 055/090 058/096 057/095 052/084 052/084 053/084
    3/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210827
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
227 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SW. AS OF 2 AM THERE
REMAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA...BUT TO OUR SW INTO
IDAHO THE COVERAGE IS GREATER...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ALREADY...PERHAPS
UP TO 1.2 INCHES IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
1.05 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GGW RAOB AT 00Z LAST EVENING.

A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE MORNING BASED ON NEARBY RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL COOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...W/
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 9C...SO MID LEVEL CAPPING WHICH IS OFTEN AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION IN MID SUMMER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND FEEL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY TODAY. AS FOR SEVERE WX...OUR FAR EAST COULD SEE A FEW
NEAR-SEVERE STORMS BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY GREATER EAST OF OUR
CWA AS THE SREF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. IT APPEARS THAT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN OUR EAST TOO EARLY IN THE DAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVAL THIS MORNING HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP IN OUR WEST BEFORE
18Z...AND HAVE RAISED AFTN POPS IN OUR EAST TO HIGHER SCATTERED.
THERE IS A SECONDARY PV MAX MOVING THRU OUR AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE WET...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND RISING
HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN OUR WEST AND
NORTH TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
+16C IN OUR SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN BY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA PER THE ONSET OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 061/090 063/095 062/093 057/084 057/084 057/086
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 084 054/089 055/093 055/091 050/083 049/083 049/088
    5/T 52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 089 059/092 060/099 060/094 056/085 055/085 056/087
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 063/090 065/095 063/093 059/085 058/085 059/084
    3/T 42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U
4BQ 091 061/090 062/097 062/096 058/084 057/084 058/084
    3/T 32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 059/086 060/090 059/091 056/083 052/082 056/081
    5/T 43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 090 055/090 058/096 057/095 052/084 052/084 053/084
    3/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 210503
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1103 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery and webcams show mix of mostly clear
(central counties)to partly/mostly cloudy skies (Hiline and
southwest MT areas) across the region this evening.  Also, band of
very light rainshowers continue to pass through portions of the
Hiline. Little precipitation has been recorded so far but dew points
and humidity values have been creeping upward so may see some light
rainfall there through this evening.  Very spotty showers have also
developed over southwest MT; expect precipitation chances and
coverage to increase in that area thru the nighttime hours as
additional moisture currently over southern ID is steadily advancing
northward.  Predominant precip type should be rainshowers but can`t
rule out a few short-lived, pulse-type thunderstorms over both of
these areas. Going forecast is largely on track.  Just made a few
minor tweaks on temperatures and humidities to better match current
observations and raised precip chances slightly over the southwest
counties based on latest forecast model projections for the moisture
in Idaho.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Short-range guidance continues to support development of showers
across the region during the late overnight hours. A few weak
showers are ongoing primarily over Liberty and Hill counties
including KHVR. Showers will continue to move through the area
during the morning hours on Monday. Winds will continue to be
generally light and variable. Gusts should pick back up a bit
across north-central Montana by Monday afternoon. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  55  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  55  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210503
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1103 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery and webcams show mix of mostly clear
(central counties)to partly/mostly cloudy skies (Hiline and
southwest MT areas) across the region this evening.  Also, band of
very light rainshowers continue to pass through portions of the
Hiline. Little precipitation has been recorded so far but dew points
and humidity values have been creeping upward so may see some light
rainfall there through this evening.  Very spotty showers have also
developed over southwest MT; expect precipitation chances and
coverage to increase in that area thru the nighttime hours as
additional moisture currently over southern ID is steadily advancing
northward.  Predominant precip type should be rainshowers but can`t
rule out a few short-lived, pulse-type thunderstorms over both of
these areas. Going forecast is largely on track.  Just made a few
minor tweaks on temperatures and humidities to better match current
observations and raised precip chances slightly over the southwest
counties based on latest forecast model projections for the moisture
in Idaho.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Short-range guidance continues to support development of showers
across the region during the late overnight hours. A few weak
showers are ongoing primarily over Liberty and Hill counties
including KHVR. Showers will continue to move through the area
during the morning hours on Monday. Winds will continue to be
generally light and variable. Gusts should pick back up a bit
across north-central Montana by Monday afternoon. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  55  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  55  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210323 CCA
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR WEST OF
BILLINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MANAGED TO GET A LIGHT SHOWER IN LIVINGSTON DESPITE
RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST
AND CENTRAL...THOUGH MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS WILL BE VIRGA.
DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WITH THIS ACTIVITY
UNTIL BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND SUNRISE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    23/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    23/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210323
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR WEST OF
BILLINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MANAGED TO GET A LIGHT SHOWER IN LIVINGSTON DESPITE
RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST AND CENTRAL THOUGH MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS
WILL BE VIRGA. DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND
SUNRISE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    23/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    23/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210323
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR WEST OF
BILLINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MANAGED TO GET A LIGHT SHOWER IN LIVINGSTON DESPITE
RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST AND CENTRAL THOUGH MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS
WILL BE VIRGA. DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND
SUNRISE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    23/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    23/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210323
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR WEST OF
BILLINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MANAGED TO GET A LIGHT SHOWER IN LIVINGSTON DESPITE
RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST AND CENTRAL THOUGH MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS
WILL BE VIRGA. DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND
SUNRISE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    23/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    23/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210323
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR WEST OF
BILLINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MANAGED TO GET A LIGHT SHOWER IN LIVINGSTON DESPITE
RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST AND CENTRAL THOUGH MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS
WILL BE VIRGA. DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND
SUNRISE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    23/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    23/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 210301
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery and webcams show mix of mostly clear
(central counties)to partly/mostly cloudy skies (Hiline and
southwest MT areas) across the region this evening.  Also, band of
very light rainshowers continue to pass through portions of the
Hiline. Little precipitation has been recorded so far but dew points
and humidity values have been creeping upward so may see some light
rainfall there through this evening.  Very spotty showers have also
developed over southwest MT; expect precipitation chances and
coverage to increase in that area thru the nighttime hours as
additional moisture currently over southern ID is steadily advancing
northward.  Predominant precip type should be rainshowers but can`t
rule out a few short-lived, pulse-type thunderstorms over both of
these areas. Going forecast is largely on track.  Just made a few
minor tweaks on temperatures and humidities to better match current
observations and raised precip chances slightly over the southwest
counties based on latest forecast model projections for the moisture
in Idaho.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Primary aviation concern...increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms by around 10z tomorrow, especially over southwest
MT. Have continued mention of VCSH for most terminals but wouldn`t
be surprised to see brief MVFR conditions in heavier
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Could see showers off and on
during the morning hours with drier conditions expected by late
afternoon. Winds gusts will continue to subside this evening and
will become light and variable overnight. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  57  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  57  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 210301
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery and webcams show mix of mostly clear
(central counties)to partly/mostly cloudy skies (Hiline and
southwest MT areas) across the region this evening.  Also, band of
very light rainshowers continue to pass through portions of the
Hiline. Little precipitation has been recorded so far but dew points
and humidity values have been creeping upward so may see some light
rainfall there through this evening.  Very spotty showers have also
developed over southwest MT; expect precipitation chances and
coverage to increase in that area thru the nighttime hours as
additional moisture currently over southern ID is steadily advancing
northward.  Predominant precip type should be rainshowers but can`t
rule out a few short-lived, pulse-type thunderstorms over both of
these areas. Going forecast is largely on track.  Just made a few
minor tweaks on temperatures and humidities to better match current
observations and raised precip chances slightly over the southwest
counties based on latest forecast model projections for the moisture
in Idaho.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Primary aviation concern...increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms by around 10z tomorrow, especially over southwest
MT. Have continued mention of VCSH for most terminals but wouldn`t
be surprised to see brief MVFR conditions in heavier
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Could see showers off and on
during the morning hours with drier conditions expected by late
afternoon. Winds gusts will continue to subside this evening and
will become light and variable overnight. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  57  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  57  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KGGW 210230
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
830 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE... RADAR IS INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND MAY
STALL OVER THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL SLOPE IS CAUSING THE RAIN. PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS
MAY MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. THESE ARE COVERED
NICELY BY THE CURRENT 20 PERCENT ISOLATED COVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE MESO
FIELDS FOR OVERNIGHT. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

VORTICITY STREAMING ACROSS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CHANCES IN
SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THESE TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR. WHILE PRECISE
TIMING/PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION DID TREND POPS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE BEST CONSENSUS EXISTS.
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RECENT HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF LATE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE UPDATE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE ISN`T A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM. FRANSEN


SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MAY BRING A VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. NOT ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS: WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WIND ON MONDAY WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 210230
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
830 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE... RADAR IS INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND MAY
STALL OVER THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL SLOPE IS CAUSING THE RAIN. PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS
MAY MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. THESE ARE COVERED
NICELY BY THE CURRENT 20 PERCENT ISOLATED COVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE MESO
FIELDS FOR OVERNIGHT. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

VORTICITY STREAMING ACROSS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CHANCES IN
SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THESE TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR. WHILE PRECISE
TIMING/PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION DID TREND POPS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE BEST CONSENSUS EXISTS.
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RECENT HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF LATE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE UPDATE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE ISN`T A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM. FRANSEN


SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MAY BRING A VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME
TO TIME. NOT ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS: WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WIND ON MONDAY WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF WESTERN
MOUNTAINS RIGHT NOW. OVERNIGHT MORE MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT WHILE BETTER DEW POINTS DROP IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SPREADING EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 90S IN SOME AREAS AT 8PM...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL SO WILL LET IT RIDE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    13/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF WESTERN
MOUNTAINS RIGHT NOW. OVERNIGHT MORE MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT WHILE BETTER DEW POINTS DROP IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT SPREADING EAST ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 90S IN SOME AREAS AT 8PM...SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL SO WILL LET IT RIDE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH VFR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    13/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 210008
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
608 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Primary aviation concern...increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms by around 10z tomorrow, especially over southwest
MT. Have continued mention of VCSH for most terminals but wouldn`t
be surprised to see brief MVFR conditions in heavier
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Could see showers off and on
during the morning hours with drier conditions expected by late
afternoon. Winds gusts will continue to subside this evening and
will become light and variable overnight. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  57  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  57  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 210008
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
608 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Primary aviation concern...increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms by around 10z tomorrow, especially over southwest
MT. Have continued mention of VCSH for most terminals but wouldn`t
be surprised to see brief MVFR conditions in heavier
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Could see showers off and on
during the morning hours with drier conditions expected by late
afternoon. Winds gusts will continue to subside this evening and
will become light and variable overnight. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  57  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  57  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KMSO 202057
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A band of light rain showers extending from south of Spokane
northeastward to Glacier NP is expected to linger into the evening
before dissipating. No thunderstorms are expected at this time as
the atmosphere appears too stable, although some locations could see
wetting rain (0.11" reported at KGPI already).

Smoke has been largely absent across SW Montana and N Central ID
today thanks to good mixing and a shift to southwesterly flow
aloft. The forecast for smoke transport into our area remains
tricky, though visible satellite suggests most of the area will
remain largely smoke free given the transport winds aloft.
Exceptions could be far NW Montana being affected by fires in
Washington, and Central Idaho from fires in Oregon, though the
chances appear modest at best at this point.

While the band of showers over NW Montana tapers off this evening,
another area of showers will begin to lift northward across
Idaho. Showers and a few thunderstorms across Lemhi County ID will
move into SW Montana by Monday morning. These storms should
remain fairly weak, however lightning and brief heavy rain will
be a threat. Storms should diminish by the late afternoon as the
upper-level disturbance pushes off to the east.

Another system moves into the area Tuesday, bringing better
moisture and instability. Expect more widespread showers and
thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rain would be the main
threat with these storms, while gusty winds, lightning, and small
hail are all possibilities.

An unseasonably cold upper level low is expected to move into
Washington State on Wednesday. Ahead of this system, moist
southwesterly flow will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
region. At this point, the best shear, instability and moisture looks to
be in north central Idaho and northwest Montana. Precipitable
water values will be approaching over an inch in these areas, and
main impacts with these storms will be heavy rain and gusty winds.
A few isolated severe storms may also produce hail and frequent
lightning. Flash flooding could also become an issue if the storms
drop enough rain in a short period over recent wildfire burn
scarred terrain.

A strong cold front is expected to move through Wednesday night
and will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Higher
elevation passes such as Logan pass may see wind gusts up to 60
mph through Thursday. High temperatures for Thursday are expected
to be in the mid to upper 60s for valleys in northwest Montana, and
70s for western Montana and north central Idaho.

High pressure will then build in Thursday night which may allow
temperatures to cool off into the 30s for select valleys of
northwest Montana. The abnormally cool morning for this time of
year may impact sensitive vegetation. Temperatures will quickly
rebound this weekend, with summer-like weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers will continue into the evening over NW
Montana, bringing light rain to KGPI at times (but not enough to
lower visibilities). Elsewhere, winds will be lighter than
yesterday, but still breezy: around 10-20 kts. Another weather
disturbance will spread showers and a few thunderstorms through
Idaho and into SW Montana tonight into tomorrow morning, with a
slim chance of thunder at KSMN and KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Missoula.gov
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 202057
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A band of light rain showers extending from south of Spokane
northeastward to Glacier NP is expected to linger into the evening
before dissipating. No thunderstorms are expected at this time as
the atmosphere appears too stable, although some locations could see
wetting rain (0.11" reported at KGPI already).

Smoke has been largely absent across SW Montana and N Central ID
today thanks to good mixing and a shift to southwesterly flow
aloft. The forecast for smoke transport into our area remains
tricky, though visible satellite suggests most of the area will
remain largely smoke free given the transport winds aloft.
Exceptions could be far NW Montana being affected by fires in
Washington, and Central Idaho from fires in Oregon, though the
chances appear modest at best at this point.

While the band of showers over NW Montana tapers off this evening,
another area of showers will begin to lift northward across
Idaho. Showers and a few thunderstorms across Lemhi County ID will
move into SW Montana by Monday morning. These storms should
remain fairly weak, however lightning and brief heavy rain will
be a threat. Storms should diminish by the late afternoon as the
upper-level disturbance pushes off to the east.

Another system moves into the area Tuesday, bringing better
moisture and instability. Expect more widespread showers and
thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rain would be the main
threat with these storms, while gusty winds, lightning, and small
hail are all possibilities.

An unseasonably cold upper level low is expected to move into
Washington State on Wednesday. Ahead of this system, moist
southwesterly flow will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
region. At this point, the best shear, instability and moisture looks to
be in north central Idaho and northwest Montana. Precipitable
water values will be approaching over an inch in these areas, and
main impacts with these storms will be heavy rain and gusty winds.
A few isolated severe storms may also produce hail and frequent
lightning. Flash flooding could also become an issue if the storms
drop enough rain in a short period over recent wildfire burn
scarred terrain.

A strong cold front is expected to move through Wednesday night
and will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Higher
elevation passes such as Logan pass may see wind gusts up to 60
mph through Thursday. High temperatures for Thursday are expected
to be in the mid to upper 60s for valleys in northwest Montana, and
70s for western Montana and north central Idaho.

High pressure will then build in Thursday night which may allow
temperatures to cool off into the 30s for select valleys of
northwest Montana. The abnormally cool morning for this time of
year may impact sensitive vegetation. Temperatures will quickly
rebound this weekend, with summer-like weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers will continue into the evening over NW
Montana, bringing light rain to KGPI at times (but not enough to
lower visibilities). Elsewhere, winds will be lighter than
yesterday, but still breezy: around 10-20 kts. Another weather
disturbance will spread showers and a few thunderstorms through
Idaho and into SW Montana tonight into tomorrow morning, with a
slim chance of thunder at KSMN and KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Missoula.gov
https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula














000
FXUS65 KGGW 202049
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

VORTICITY STREAMING ACROSS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CHANCES IN
SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THESE TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR. WHILE PRECISE
TIMING/PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION DID TREND POPS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE BEST CONSENSUS EXISTS.
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RECENT HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF LATE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE UPDATE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE ISN`T A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM. FRANSEN

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO MVFR.

HAZE: IMPROVING AS MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

AREA WINDS: WINDS IN THE 12 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND DECREASING BY
SUNSET.

WEATHER: A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AND THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME KSDY AND KGDV
LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THEM BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z.

FRANSEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
IN THE MID TEENS IN ZONES 135 136 AND 137. TO ADD TO THE
CONCERN...COULD ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPARKING LIGHTNING CONCERNS. THERE ISN`T A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH EITHER SO THAT ADDS TO THE CONCERN AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 202049
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

VORTICITY STREAMING ACROSS THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CHANCES IN
SOME PLACES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THESE TIME PERIODS IN PARTICULAR. WHILE PRECISE
TIMING/PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION DID TREND POPS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHERE BEST CONSENSUS EXISTS.
THE SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RECENT HAZE/SMOKE CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CWA AS OF LATE. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...THE UPDATE FOCUSED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE ISN`T A HUGE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM. FRANSEN

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO MVFR.

HAZE: IMPROVING AS MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

AREA WINDS: WINDS IN THE 12 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND DECREASING BY
SUNSET.

WEATHER: A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AND THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME KSDY AND KGDV
LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THEM BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z.

FRANSEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
IN THE MID TEENS IN ZONES 135 136 AND 137. TO ADD TO THE
CONCERN...COULD ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SPARKING LIGHTNING CONCERNS. THERE ISN`T A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH EITHER SO THAT ADDS TO THE CONCERN AS WELL. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202024
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
224 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    13/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202024
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
224 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    13/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 202020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1655Z.
Increasing southwest flow aloft bringing moisture and instability,
coupled with a disturbance aloft approaching from the west, will
result in isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest
Montana after 21z. Surface winds will be gusty with the strongest
winds over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Winds should diminish
after 00z. Another disturbance approaching by 12Z and continuing to
affect area through 18Z. This will bring a renewed chance of showers
and after 12Z to most of the area. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. db/de

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  57  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  57  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KTFX 202020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Southwesterly flow will bring a few
disturbances to Montana over the next couple days. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near elevated
terrain during peak heating. Temperatures are expected to remain
near seasonal averages with gusty winds diminishing into Monday.
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest has moved into southern
Canada but may return to the region Monday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper
low approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent
flow aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the
low and associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development
across the area Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models
are fairly consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta
by Thursday. The ECMWF has the low further north than either the
GFS or the GEM. Regardless, none of the models have much in the
way of qpf associated with this feature, mainly isolated
convective activity across the northeast. With the low moving east
into Saskatchewan Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once
again and the airmass begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area
during the weekend brings dry condition, though some moisture
works its way north from the southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the southwest mountains.
Temperatures will be above seasonal averages to start the period
but will drop below seasonal averages from midweek through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1655Z.
Increasing southwest flow aloft bringing moisture and instability,
coupled with a disturbance aloft approaching from the west, will
result in isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest
Montana after 21z. Surface winds will be gusty with the strongest
winds over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Winds should diminish
after 00z. Another disturbance approaching by 12Z and continuing to
affect area through 18Z. This will bring a renewed chance of showers
and after 12Z to most of the area. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. db/de

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  82  56  84 /  10  40  20  30
CTB  53  78  50  81 /  20  30  10  30
HLN  61  82  59  86 /  10  50  40  30
BZN  56  80  53  86 /  20  60  50  20
WEY  46  69  40  78 /  30  70  50  20
DLN  57  78  52  82 /  20  60  40  30
HVR  57  84  54  87 /  30  30  10  20
LWT  56  81  55  85 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201704 AAA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Update aviation section...
.UPDATE...
Minor forecast updates this morning. Removed the mention of smoke
across Central Montana as satellite shows most has moved into
southern Canada and eastern Montana. Breezy west winds will
continue today but should slowly taper off through the evening. A
High Wind Warning remains in effect for the northern Rockies but
winds should diminish there as well. Overall should be a mostly
sunny warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1655Z.
Increasing southwest flow aloft bringing moisture and instability,
coupled with a disturbance aloft approaching from the west, will
result in isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest
Montana after 21z. Surface winds will be gusty with the strongest
winds over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Winds should diminish
after 00z. Another disturbance approaching by 12Z and continuing to
affect area through 18Z. This will bring a renewed chance of showers
and after 12Z to most of the area. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. db/de

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Sunday through Tuesday...Zonal winds will remain strong through
the day Sunday before becoming more Southwesterly as the
upper level trough over Canada moves eastward towards the Hudson
Bay, and a second closed low moves south off the Canadian Pacific
Coast towards Portland Oregon. This southwesterly flow will bring
a few shortwave troughs that should create a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday and Tuesday across the
area...especially during the peak heating of the afternoon hours.
Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages, and
gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon especially
over the mountains of the Northern Rocky Mountain Front where a
high wind warning is in effect. Smoke from fires in Oregon Idaho
and Washington will continue to move into the area and could
reduce visibility along with reducing air quality. Suk

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper low
approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent flow
aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the low and
associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development across the area
Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models are fairly
consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta by Thursday.
The ECMWF has the low further north than either the GFS or the GEM.
Regardless, none of the models have much in the way of qpf
associated with this feature, mainly isolated convective activity
across the northeast. With the low moving east into Saskatchewan
Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once again and the airmass
begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area during the weekend brings
dry condition, though some moisture works its way north from the
southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a chance of isolated thunderstorms
over the southwest mountains. Temperatures will be above seasonal
averages to start the period but will drop below seasonal averages
from midweek through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  58  81  58 /  10  10  50  30
CTB  80  53  80  50 /  10  20  20  10
HLN  90  60  82  59 /   0  10  50  40
BZN  90  56  79  53 /   0  10  60  50
WEY  80  45  71  40 /  10  20  70  50
DLN  88  55  76  51 /   0  10  60  40
HVR  88  57  85  56 /  10  20  30  20
LWT  89  57  81  56 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201704 AAA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Update aviation section...
.UPDATE...
Minor forecast updates this morning. Removed the mention of smoke
across Central Montana as satellite shows most has moved into
southern Canada and eastern Montana. Breezy west winds will
continue today but should slowly taper off through the evening. A
High Wind Warning remains in effect for the northern Rockies but
winds should diminish there as well. Overall should be a mostly
sunny warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1655Z.
Increasing southwest flow aloft bringing moisture and instability,
coupled with a disturbance aloft approaching from the west, will
result in isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest
Montana after 21z. Surface winds will be gusty with the strongest
winds over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Winds should diminish
after 00z. Another disturbance approaching by 12Z and continuing to
affect area through 18Z. This will bring a renewed chance of showers
and after 12Z to most of the area. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. db/de

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Sunday through Tuesday...Zonal winds will remain strong through
the day Sunday before becoming more Southwesterly as the
upper level trough over Canada moves eastward towards the Hudson
Bay, and a second closed low moves south off the Canadian Pacific
Coast towards Portland Oregon. This southwesterly flow will bring
a few shortwave troughs that should create a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday and Tuesday across the
area...especially during the peak heating of the afternoon hours.
Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages, and
gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon especially
over the mountains of the Northern Rocky Mountain Front where a
high wind warning is in effect. Smoke from fires in Oregon Idaho
and Washington will continue to move into the area and could
reduce visibility along with reducing air quality. Suk

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper low
approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent flow
aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the low and
associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development across the area
Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models are fairly
consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta by Thursday.
The ECMWF has the low further north than either the GFS or the GEM.
Regardless, none of the models have much in the way of qpf
associated with this feature, mainly isolated convective activity
across the northeast. With the low moving east into Saskatchewan
Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once again and the airmass
begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area during the weekend brings
dry condition, though some moisture works its way north from the
southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a chance of isolated thunderstorms
over the southwest mountains. Temperatures will be above seasonal
averages to start the period but will drop below seasonal averages
from midweek through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  58  81  58 /  10  10  50  30
CTB  80  53  80  50 /  10  20  20  10
HLN  90  60  82  59 /   0  10  50  40
BZN  90  56  79  53 /   0  10  60  50
WEY  80  45  71  40 /  10  20  70  50
DLN  88  55  76  51 /   0  10  60  40
HVR  88  57  85  56 /  10  20  30  20
LWT  89  57  81  56 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor forecast updates this morning. Removed the mention of smoke
across Central Montana as satellite shows most has moved into
southern Canada and eastern Montana. Breezy west winds will
continue today but should slowly taper off through the evening. A
High Wind Warning remains in effect for the northern Rockies but
winds should diminish there as well. Overall should be a mostly
sunny warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Increasing southwest flow aloft bringing moisture and instability,
coupled with a disturbance aloft approaching from the west, will
result in isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest
Montana after 21z. Surface winds will again become gusty after 16z
with the strongest winds over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Winds should diminish after 00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Sunday through Tuesday...Zonal winds will remain strong through
the day Sunday before becoming more Southwesterly as the
upper level trough over Canada moves eastward towards the Hudson
Bay, and a second closed low moves south off the Canadian Pacific
Coast towards Portland Oregon. This southwesterly flow will bring
a few shortwave troughs that should create a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday and Tuesday across the
area...especially during the peak heating of the afternoon hours.
Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages, and
gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon especially
over the mountains of the Northern Rocky Mountain Front where a
high wind warning is in effect. Smoke from fires in Oregon Idaho
and Washington will continue to move into the area and could
reduce visibility along with reducing air quality. Suk

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper low
approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent flow
aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the low and
associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development across the area
Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models are fairly
consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta by Thursday.
The ECMWF has the low further north than either the GFS or the GEM.
Regardless, none of the models have much in the way of qpf
associated with this feature, mainly isolated convective activity
across the northeast. With the low moving east into Saskatchewan
Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once again and the airmass
begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area during the weekend brings
dry condition, though some moisture works its way north from the
southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a chance of isolated thunderstorms
over the southwest mountains. Temperatures will be above seasonal
averages to start the period but will drop below seasonal averages
from midweek through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  58  81  58 /  10  10  50  30
CTB  80  53  80  50 /  10  20  20  10
HLN  90  60  82  59 /   0  10  50  40
BZN  90  56  79  53 /   0  10  60  50
WEY  80  45  71  40 /  10  20  70  50
DLN  88  55  76  51 /   0  10  60  40
HVR  88  57  85  56 /  10  20  30  20
LWT  89  57  81  56 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 201610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor forecast updates this morning. Removed the mention of smoke
across Central Montana as satellite shows most has moved into
southern Canada and eastern Montana. Breezy west winds will
continue today but should slowly taper off through the evening. A
High Wind Warning remains in effect for the northern Rockies but
winds should diminish there as well. Overall should be a mostly
sunny warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Increasing southwest flow aloft bringing moisture and instability,
coupled with a disturbance aloft approaching from the west, will
result in isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest
Montana after 21z. Surface winds will again become gusty after 16z
with the strongest winds over the Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Winds should diminish after 00z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2014/
Sunday through Tuesday...Zonal winds will remain strong through
the day Sunday before becoming more Southwesterly as the
upper level trough over Canada moves eastward towards the Hudson
Bay, and a second closed low moves south off the Canadian Pacific
Coast towards Portland Oregon. This southwesterly flow will bring
a few shortwave troughs that should create a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday and Tuesday across the
area...especially during the peak heating of the afternoon hours.
Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages, and
gusty winds are expected to develop Sunday afternoon especially
over the mountains of the Northern Rocky Mountain Front where a
high wind warning is in effect. Smoke from fires in Oregon Idaho
and Washington will continue to move into the area and could
reduce visibility along with reducing air quality. Suk

Tuesday night through Sunday...Not many significant changes to the
medium range period. The period begins with the upper ridge axis
over eastern Montana and southwest flow aloft continuing to bring
moisture and instability to the area, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday night. Wednesday will find a closed upper low
approaching the Pacific Northwest with increasing diffluent flow
aloft over the area. Short wave energy spinning out from the low and
associated trof will aid in thunderstorm development across the area
Wednesday afternoon through evening. The models are fairly
consistent placing the upper low over southern Alberta by Thursday.
The ECMWF has the low further north than either the GFS or the GEM.
Regardless, none of the models have much in the way of qpf
associated with this feature, mainly isolated convective activity
across the northeast. With the low moving east into Saskatchewan
Friday, the flow aloft becomes westerly once again and the airmass
begins to dry. Upper ridging over the area during the weekend brings
dry condition, though some moisture works its way north from the
southwest U.S. Sunday and brings a chance of isolated thunderstorms
over the southwest mountains. Temperatures will be above seasonal
averages to start the period but will drop below seasonal averages
from midweek through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  58  81  58 /  10  10  50  30
CTB  80  53  80  50 /  10  20  20  10
HLN  90  60  82  59 /   0  10  50  40
BZN  90  56  79  53 /   0  10  60  50
WEY  80  45  71  40 /  10  20  70  50
DLN  88  55  76  51 /   0  10  60  40
HVR  88  57  85  56 /  10  20  30  20
LWT  89  57  81  56 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov





000
FXUS65 KGGW 201530
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
930 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH THE FORECAST ON TRACK
DEPICTING HAZY SKIES AND AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...DO EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL EVALUATE
MORE CLOSELY FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND PROVIDE MORE DETAILS.
OTHER CONCERN IS THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AND SO HEADLINES SURROUNDING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
FLAT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AS TROF DIGS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. TRAJECTORY MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
PROBLEM WITH POOR AIR QUALITY UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING. WINDS
ALOFT NOT MUCH STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WITH THE ADDITION OF A
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD HAVE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED LAST
EVENING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CANADIAN FRONT LINGER ACROSS MONTANA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK BUT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BRINGING A RISE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND WITH VORTICITY STREAMING OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROF... COULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME EXISTS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE JUTTING OUT OVER WYOMING...
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SETS OVER THE COASTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THESE PERIODS ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RH RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOWS SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE HOWEVER... IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
EVAPORATE ANY RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE SURFACE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRANSVERSES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DURING THIS DAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S... UPPER 90S TO 100S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI BREAKS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXITING
TO THE EAST AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENTER THE AREA... THE BREAKDOWN
OF THIS RIDGE OVERNIGHT MAY NEED SOME WATCHING AS STORMS COULD
DEVELOP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL ADDING TO JET
LIFT IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE STEADILY GROWING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSVERSE THE
ROCKIES AND REPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALONG
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES DROPS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY ONWARD... HEAT DOME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LARGE RIDGE AGAIN. THIS
WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A DRIER STABILIZED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO MVFR.

HAZE: SMOKE PLUMES ORIGINATING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A HAZE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL MIX THIS HAZE DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES OUT.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE WEST UNDER 10 KTS... THEN INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201509
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE ACROSS THE AREA PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SOME SMOKE OVER SE MT. THERE WERE SOME FIRES OVER SE
MT AS WELL.

STRONG JET WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA TODAY AND THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME PACIFIC AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z PER THE
GFS...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SW
MOUNTAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP MIXING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT THAT
STRONG SO WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER
THE DEEP MIXING WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS IN SOME AREAS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH IT
HAS BEEN A DRY NIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY BUT WITHOUT AS MUCH WIND TO
MIX INTO AS YESTERDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WILL STILL SEE GUSTS IN
THE 20S ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE 90S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AS
FLOW ALOFT BACKS LATE TODAY...AND THIS COULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS
OR WEAK TSTMS OVER OUR SW MTNS BY LATE AFTN OR MORE LIKELY THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER OUR SW MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THRU
THE NIGHT AS MONSOON MOISTURE DEEPENS. WE WILL ALSO SEE A WEAK
COLD FRONT BACK INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE IN CANADA...THUS EXPECT NE WINDS TO SAG INTO OUR CWA.

INCREASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACTS WITH
A MOISTENING AIRMASS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND AN INCH SO HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS. MID
LEVEL TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 10C OR COOLER SO ANY MID
LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD BE ELIMINATED. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FEW NEAR-SEVERE STORMS IN OUR FAR EAST...BUT
SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK MORE PROMISING EAST OF OUR CWA PER LATEST
MODELS/SREF. WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE TO GO
HIGHER SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
EAST FLOW MAY YIELD A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FOR OUR EAST
THRU MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING...BUT MODELS IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT HERE. WE WILL SEE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN BY
06-12Z LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHTNING ON MONDAY WILL OF COURSE WILL BE A PROBLEM GIVEN THE
CURRENT STATE OF OUR DRYING FINE FUELS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING WET. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ON MONDAY IN THE FWF.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND SHOWER CHANCES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BRING
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT OVER THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS. RH`S ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT FRIDAY ALSO AS A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH`S WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY
DRY AIR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 80S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL HAVE
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY. THE
ONLY FLIGHT HAZARDS WILL BE SMOKE IN THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING
OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY OF AROUND 5 MILES. THE SMOKE WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER RAIN. EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL.
ARTHUR/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 063/089 061/091 062/093 062/089 057/085 059/083
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 094 055/084 055/089 054/090 053/086 051/083 052/081
    0/N 14/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 097 060/090 059/093 062/095 060/091 057/086 059/084
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 096 064/091 063/091 064/094 063/090 059/086 062/083
    0/U 13/T    51/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 095 063/092 061/091 062/095 062/090 058/085 061/083
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 093 060/090 059/087 060/088 058/088 057/083 060/080
    0/U 13/T    51/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/N
SHR 093 058/090 055/090 058/093 057/090 054/084 058/082
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201509
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING. SKIES
WERE GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE ACROSS THE AREA PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SOME SMOKE OVER SE MT. THERE WERE SOME FIRES OVER SE
MT AS WELL.

STRONG JET WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA TODAY AND THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME PACIFIC AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z PER THE
GFS...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SW
MOUNTAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP MIXING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT THAT
STRONG SO WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER
THE DEEP MIXING WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS IN SOME AREAS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH IT
HAS BEEN A DRY NIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY BUT WITHOUT AS MUCH WIND TO
MIX INTO AS YESTERDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WILL STILL SEE GUSTS IN
THE 20S ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE 90S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AS
FLOW ALOFT BACKS LATE TODAY...AND THIS COULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS
OR WEAK TSTMS OVER OUR SW MTNS BY LATE AFTN OR MORE LIKELY THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER OUR SW MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THRU
THE NIGHT AS MONSOON MOISTURE DEEPENS. WE WILL ALSO SEE A WEAK
COLD FRONT BACK INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE IN CANADA...THUS EXPECT NE WINDS TO SAG INTO OUR CWA.

INCREASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACTS WITH
A MOISTENING AIRMASS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND AN INCH SO HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS. MID
LEVEL TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 10C OR COOLER SO ANY MID
LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD BE ELIMINATED. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FEW NEAR-SEVERE STORMS IN OUR FAR EAST...BUT
SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK MORE PROMISING EAST OF OUR CWA PER LATEST
MODELS/SREF. WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE TO GO
HIGHER SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
EAST FLOW MAY YIELD A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FOR OUR EAST
THRU MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING...BUT MODELS IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT HERE. WE WILL SEE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN BY
06-12Z LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHTNING ON MONDAY WILL OF COURSE WILL BE A PROBLEM GIVEN THE
CURRENT STATE OF OUR DRYING FINE FUELS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING WET. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ON MONDAY IN THE FWF.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND SHOWER CHANCES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BRING
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT OVER THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS. RH`S ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT FRIDAY ALSO AS A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH`S WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY
DRY AIR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 80S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL HAVE
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY. THE
ONLY FLIGHT HAZARDS WILL BE SMOKE IN THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING
OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY OF AROUND 5 MILES. THE SMOKE WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MON WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER RAIN. EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL.
ARTHUR/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 063/089 061/091 062/093 062/089 057/085 059/083
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 094 055/084 055/089 054/090 053/086 051/083 052/081
    0/N 14/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 097 060/090 059/093 062/095 060/091 057/086 059/084
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 096 064/091 063/091 064/094 063/090 059/086 062/083
    0/U 13/T    51/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 095 063/092 061/091 062/095 062/090 058/085 061/083
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 093 060/090 059/087 060/088 058/088 057/083 060/080
    0/U 13/T    51/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/N
SHR 093 058/090 055/090 058/093 057/090 054/084 058/082
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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