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000
FXUS65 KTFX 010536
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1140 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

Aviation Section updated

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish quickly this
evening as the sun sets across the CWA. A strong low level jet could
help maintain some showers and thunderstorms across north central MT
late this evening into the early overnight hours. Perhaps an
isolated stronger storm is possible with this low level jet
feature...however...the chances for severe thunderstorms are
diminishing with the setting sun. Mainly dry conditions are then
expected to start Friday morning. The isolated to scattered
thunderstorm chances will then shift to more of the southern half of
the CWA Friday afternoon and evening. More warm temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s can also be expected for Friday. Anglin

&&

.AVIATION...
A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the region
through 09z or so before gradually diminishing. Wind gusts near
30 mph/lightning/small hail will be the main threat overnight.
A few isolated thunderstorms could redevelop after 21z Fri
mainly over Southwest MT. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016)
This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 010336
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
936 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish quickly this
evening as the sun sets across the CWA. A strong low level jet could
help maintain some showers and thunderstorms across north central MT
late this evening into the early overnight hours. Perhaps an
isolated stronger storm is possible with this low level jet
feature...however...the chances for severe thunderstorms are
diminishing with the setting sun. Mainly dry conditions are then
expected to start Friday morning. The isolated to scattered
thunderstorm chances will then shift to more of the southern half of
the CWA Friday afternoon and evening. More warm temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s can also be expected for Friday. Anglin


UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

...Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the next 24 hours, but
brief MVFR conditions underneath stronger thunderstorms. A
disturbance will bring scattered storms with brief heavy rain and
small hail along and east of Interstate 15 through around 03Z, while
stronger storms will produce large hail and strong gusty winds.
Between 03Z and 06Z, another disturbance will bring a threat of
showers and weak thunderstorms to the Hi-Line area. A separate
disturbance will keep scattered showers and weak thunderstorms
across Southwest Montana through around 06Z. After 06Z, clouds,
showers, and storms will diminish, and breezy westerly downslope
winds will spread east over the plains of North Central Montana.
Instability may allow isolated thunderstorms to redevelop over the
mountains of Southwest Montana after 18Z Friday, but any storms that
do develop will be weak.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 010228 AAA
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
828 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...

Satellite and radar imagery is showing several thunderstorms over
Central Montana. A couple have been warned on for severe TS. These
storms weaken as they drift east towards Northeast Montana. These
storms will be monitored for the possibility of severe, but they
are expected to remain general. Pops and Wx grids seem adequate
for the current radar trends and model data. Few grid edits
needed.

Templer

Previous Discussion: An upper level ridge currently resides over
northeast Montana which is lending to warm and dry weather
conditions. However, showers and thunderstorms are developing
across central parts of the state and tracking east. It is
possible that a few showers and thunderstorms may sneak into the
area during the evening and overnight hours, though confidence is
low.

In general, a more active/progressive pattern is expected into
Friday and Saturday. However, confidence remains low through this
period due to large model solution differences. Right now it
appears that afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are a
potential each day with peak daytime heating as weak shortwaves
embedded in the flow aloft help with convective initiation, giving
some dynamic support. A lone stronger storm with gusty winds and
small hail is also a possibility, especially Saturday evening as
the ridge axis pushes east with a more pronounced approaching
shortwave. Those with holiday plans should pay attention to the
latest forecast for any updates, especially given the uncertainty
with how things will evolve over the next couple of days. Maliawco


.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Update: The going forecast is in good shape depicting an active
pattern through the extended. The only tweak was a gently nudge
toward the latest model consensus. Gilchrist

Previous long term discussion: A shortwave trough will move
through the area Saturday Night and Sunday with a weak cold front.
Look for a chance of showers and thunderstorms with this system
that could linger into Sunday Night or Monday morning in the east.

The forecast area should be between waves Monday afternoon and
night with mainly dry weather.

Southwest flow aloft with frequent shortwaves is expected from
Tuesday through the end of the period Thursday. With an unstable
atmosphere, look for at least a slight chance of thunderstorms
each day. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: Currently seeing an increase in mid level cumulus clouds
near all of the airports this afternoon, but VFR conditions
should prevail through the evening and tonight except near any
thunderstorms that may develop.

Otherwise, expect increasing mid level clouds this evening with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight and into friday
morning.

Wind: Southeast to east this evening through tomorrow morning at
10 to 20 knots.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




000
FXUS65 KGGW 010228 AAA
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
828 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...

Satellite and radar imagery is showing several thunderstorms over
Central Montana. A couple have been warned on for severe TS. These
storms weaken as they drift east towards Northeast Montana. These
storms will be monitored for the possibility of severe, but they
are expected to remain general. Pops and Wx grids seem adequate
for the current radar trends and model data. Few grid edits
needed.

Templer

Previous Discussion: An upper level ridge currently resides over
northeast Montana which is lending to warm and dry weather
conditions. However, showers and thunderstorms are developing
across central parts of the state and tracking east. It is
possible that a few showers and thunderstorms may sneak into the
area during the evening and overnight hours, though confidence is
low.

In general, a more active/progressive pattern is expected into
Friday and Saturday. However, confidence remains low through this
period due to large model solution differences. Right now it
appears that afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are a
potential each day with peak daytime heating as weak shortwaves
embedded in the flow aloft help with convective initiation, giving
some dynamic support. A lone stronger storm with gusty winds and
small hail is also a possibility, especially Saturday evening as
the ridge axis pushes east with a more pronounced approaching
shortwave. Those with holiday plans should pay attention to the
latest forecast for any updates, especially given the uncertainty
with how things will evolve over the next couple of days. Maliawco


.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Update: The going forecast is in good shape depicting an active
pattern through the extended. The only tweak was a gently nudge
toward the latest model consensus. Gilchrist

Previous long term discussion: A shortwave trough will move
through the area Saturday Night and Sunday with a weak cold front.
Look for a chance of showers and thunderstorms with this system
that could linger into Sunday Night or Monday morning in the east.

The forecast area should be between waves Monday afternoon and
night with mainly dry weather.

Southwest flow aloft with frequent shortwaves is expected from
Tuesday through the end of the period Thursday. With an unstable
atmosphere, look for at least a slight chance of thunderstorms
each day. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: Currently seeing an increase in mid level cumulus clouds
near all of the airports this afternoon, but VFR conditions
should prevail through the evening and tonight except near any
thunderstorms that may develop.

Otherwise, expect increasing mid level clouds this evening with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight and into friday
morning.

Wind: Southeast to east this evening through tomorrow morning at
10 to 20 knots.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010212
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
812 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Made a few tweaks to the forecast this evening to up the PoPs
across the western and central zones for the next few hours.
Outflow from activity earlier this afternoon has helped to
generate some precipitation from Musselshell to Sweet Grass
County. None of these storms are particularly strong and should
not amount to anything other than dropping some much needed
precipitation across the area. Time Lagged HRRR Ensemble model did
a very good job of predicting this line of activity, and has it
moving into Billings between 3 and 4 UTC. Singer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the high plains with weak
energy emerging from the northern great basin and a stronger
shortwave well to our north in northwest MT into Alberta. Shear is
weaker than the past few days but diurnal destabilization and weak
forcing is allowing convection mainly over our mtns to this point,
though at 21z there was some activity developing on a boundary in
southern Yellowstone County close to Billings. Expect an overall
increase in activity over the next few hours across our west and
central parts. Eastern areas are drier/stable now but will see
chances increase later tonight into Friday as shortwave moves
across the area. Convection should remain non-severe in our cwa
but could see a few stronger storms with small hail and enhanced
downdraft winds.

One note of interest: Billings needs 0.02" of rain this evening to
avoid its driest June on record.

On Friday, greatest chance of storms will be in our east along
plume of higher theta-e air as southeasterly flow continues in
this area. Pwats to an inch support locally heavy rain but weak
forcing and shear should keep storms below severe levels once
again. To our west, upper ridging will limit amount of convection
but a few weak storms are possible with diurnal heating. This
activity will diminish Friday night.

Temps Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Saturday, upper level energy slides in over western Montana
increasing rain chances Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Saturday
appears to be the warmest of the days this weekend with highs
solidly in the mid 90s across the Plains. In the wake of this
disturbance passing, southwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Best
rain chances will be confined to higher terrain through mid week
until the next system arrives. If the current model trends
continue Wed/Thur will be a better period to see more widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

A few isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected near KBIL
this evening. Short range models have precipitation moving into
the Billings area between 3 and 4 UTC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail for the rest of the night at all terminals. Singer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/091 062/095 062/093 061/090 060/089 059/087 057/088
    42/T    22/T    32/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/090 052/093 053/088 051/087 049/085 048/084 047/084
    42/T    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/091 059/095 060/093 059/092 057/091 056/088 056/089
    42/T    22/T    22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 062/089 063/094 064/093 062/092 062/090 060/088 059/088
    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    32/T
4BQ 061/087 060/094 063/095 062/093 062/093 060/091 058/090
    24/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    11/B    11/B    22/T
BHK 056/082 057/089 060/091 060/091 059/089 058/086 056/086
    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    33/T
SHR 056/088 054/092 056/092 055/090 055/091 054/089 054/089
    32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302342
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

...Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the next 24 hours, but
brief MVFR conditions underneath stronger thunderstorms. A
disturbance will bring scattered storms with brief heavy rain and
small hail along and east of Interstate 15 through around 03Z, while
stronger storms will produce large hail and strong gusty winds.
Between 03Z and 06Z, another disturbance will bring a threat of
showers and weak thunderstorms to the Hi-Line area. A separate
disturbance will keep scattered showers and weak thunderstorms
across Southwest Montana through around 06Z. After 06Z, clouds,
showers, and storms will diminish, and breezy westerly downslope
winds will spread east over the plains of North Central Montana.
Instability may allow isolated thunderstorms to redevelop over the
mountains of Southwest Montana after 18Z Friday, but any storms that
do develop will be weak.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302342
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

...Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the next 24 hours, but
brief MVFR conditions underneath stronger thunderstorms. A
disturbance will bring scattered storms with brief heavy rain and
small hail along and east of Interstate 15 through around 03Z, while
stronger storms will produce large hail and strong gusty winds.
Between 03Z and 06Z, another disturbance will bring a threat of
showers and weak thunderstorms to the Hi-Line area. A separate
disturbance will keep scattered showers and weak thunderstorms
across Southwest Montana through around 06Z. After 06Z, clouds,
showers, and storms will diminish, and breezy westerly downslope
winds will spread east over the plains of North Central Montana.
Instability may allow isolated thunderstorms to redevelop over the
mountains of Southwest Montana after 18Z Friday, but any storms that
do develop will be weak.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302342
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

...Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the next 24 hours, but
brief MVFR conditions underneath stronger thunderstorms. A
disturbance will bring scattered storms with brief heavy rain and
small hail along and east of Interstate 15 through around 03Z, while
stronger storms will produce large hail and strong gusty winds.
Between 03Z and 06Z, another disturbance will bring a threat of
showers and weak thunderstorms to the Hi-Line area. A separate
disturbance will keep scattered showers and weak thunderstorms
across Southwest Montana through around 06Z. After 06Z, clouds,
showers, and storms will diminish, and breezy westerly downslope
winds will spread east over the plains of North Central Montana.
Instability may allow isolated thunderstorms to redevelop over the
mountains of Southwest Montana after 18Z Friday, but any storms that
do develop will be weak.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302342
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

...Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the next 24 hours, but
brief MVFR conditions underneath stronger thunderstorms. A
disturbance will bring scattered storms with brief heavy rain and
small hail along and east of Interstate 15 through around 03Z, while
stronger storms will produce large hail and strong gusty winds.
Between 03Z and 06Z, another disturbance will bring a threat of
showers and weak thunderstorms to the Hi-Line area. A separate
disturbance will keep scattered showers and weak thunderstorms
across Southwest Montana through around 06Z. After 06Z, clouds,
showers, and storms will diminish, and breezy westerly downslope
winds will spread east over the plains of North Central Montana.
Instability may allow isolated thunderstorms to redevelop over the
mountains of Southwest Montana after 18Z Friday, but any storms that
do develop will be weak.  Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302132 CCA
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Billings MT
332 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid through Fri night...

Water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the high plains with weak
energy emerging from the northern great basin and a stronger
shortwave well to our north in northwest MT into Alberta. Shear is
weaker than the past few days but diurnal destabilization and weak
forcing is allowing convection mainly over our mtns to this point,
though at 21z there was some activity developing on a boundary in
southern Yellowstone County close to Billings. Expect an overall
increase in activity over the next few hours across our west and
central parts. Eastern areas are drier/stable now but will see
chances increase later tonight into Friday as shortwave moves
across the area. Convection should remain non-severe in our cwa
but could see a few stronger storms with small hail and enhanced
downdraft winds.

One note of interest: Billings needs 0.02" of rain this evening to
avoid its driest June on record.

On Friday, greatest chance of storms will be in our east along
plume of higher theta-e air as southeasterly flow continues in
this area. Pwats to an inch support locally heavy rain but weak
forcing and shear should keep storms below severe levels once
again. To our west, upper ridging will limit amount of convection
but a few weak storms are possible with diurnal heating. This
activity will diminish Friday night.

Temps Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Saturday, upper level energy slides in over western Montana
increasing rain chances Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Saturday
appears to be the warmest of the days this weekend with highs
solidly in the mid 90s across the Plains. In the wake of this
disturbance passing, southwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Best
rain chances will be confined to higher terrain through mid week
until the next system arrives. If the current model trends
continue Wed/Thur will be a better period to see more widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the night at all sites aside from
a brief thunderstorm impact this afternoon/evening. VCTS ongoing
near SHR with TSRA impacts likely over the next few hours. VCTS
near BIL and LVM through the rest of the afternoon. Best chance
for TSRA at BIL between 23Z-03Z. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/091 062/095 062/093 061/090 060/089 059/087 057/088
    32/T    22/T    32/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 050/090 052/093 053/088 051/087 049/085 048/084 047/084
    42/T    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/091 059/095 060/093 059/092 057/091 056/088 056/089
    32/T    22/T    22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 062/089 063/094 064/093 062/092 062/090 060/088 059/088
    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    32/T
4BQ 061/087 060/094 063/095 062/093 062/093 060/091 058/090
    24/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    11/B    11/B    22/T
BHK 056/082 057/089 060/091 060/091 059/089 058/086 056/086
    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    33/T
SHR 056/088 054/092 056/092 055/090 055/091 054/089 054/089
    32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302108
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
308 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the high plains with weak
energy emerging from the northern great basin and a stronger
shortwave well to our north in northwest MT into Alberta. Shear is
weaker than the past few days but diurnal destabilization and weak
forcing is allowing convection mainly over our mtns to this point,
though at 21z there was some activity developing on a boundary in
southern Yellowstone County close to Billings. Expect an overall
increase in activity over the next few hours across our west and
central parts. Eastern areas are drier/stable now but will see
chances increase later tonight into Friday as shortwave moves
across the area. Convection should remain non-severe in our cwa
but could see a few stronger storms with small hail and enhanced
downdraft winds.

One note of interest: Billings needs 0.02" of rain this evening to
avoid its driest June on record.

On Friday, greatest chance of storms will be in our east along
plume of higher theta-e air as southeasterly flow continues in
this area. Pwats to an inch support locally heavy rain but weak
forcing and shear should keep storms below severe levels once
again. To our west, upper ridging will limit amount of convection
but a few weak storms are possible with diurnal heating. This
activity will diminish Friday night.

Temps Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Saturday, upper level energy slides in over western Montana
increasing rain chances Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Saturday
appears to be the warmest of the days this weekend with highs
solidly in the mid 90s across the Plains. In the wake of this
disturbance passing, southwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Best
rain chances will be confined to higher terrain through mid week
until the next system arrives. If the current model trends
continue Wed/Thur will be a better period to see more widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the night at all sites aside from
a brief thunderstorm impact this afternoon/evening. VCTS ongoing
near SHR with TSRA impacts likely over the next few hours. VCTS
near BIL and LVM through the rest of the afternoon. Best chance
for TSRA at BIL between 23Z-03Z. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/091 062/095 062/093 061/090 060/089 059/087 057/088
    32/T    22/T    32/T    31/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 050/090 052/093 053/088 051/087 049/085 048/084 047/084
    42/T    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/091 059/095 060/093 059/092 057/091 056/088 056/089
    32/T    22/T    22/T    31/B    11/B    12/T    22/T
MLS 062/089 063/094 064/093 062/092 062/090 060/088 059/088
    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    32/T
4BQ 061/087 060/094 063/095 062/093 062/093 060/091 058/090
    24/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    11/B    11/B    22/T
BHK 056/082 057/089 060/091 060/091 059/089 058/086 056/086
    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T    23/T    33/T
SHR 056/088 054/092 056/092 055/090 055/091 054/089 054/089
    32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KTFX 302100
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
300 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms through this evening...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Saturday...A disturbance moving east
over the forecast area will bring scattered strong to potentially
severe this afternoon and evening. The main focus for these
stronger storms will be over north central and central Montana, as
the airmass there will be the most unstable over the area with
moderate wind shear (30 to 40 kt). Heavy rainfall and plenty of
lightning will be the main threats, but some storms may produce wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph with hail to around the size of a quarter.
Some storms have already produced quarter-sized hail along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and the threat for similar storms will move
east out of the area through this evening. Scattered storms will
also move through southwest Montana, but the threat for stronger
storms will be lower due to less wind shear. Storms will
generally diminish after midnight after this disturbance exits the
area, but a secondary disturbance will keep the chance for weaker
storms going after midnight along the Hi-Line. Weak disturbances
will continue to move over the area in a westerly flow aloft
Friday through Saturday, but more westerly downslope winds at the
surface will keep the slight chance of any showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the mountains and mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A surface trough currently centered over western
Montana will slowly move into eastern Montana by Saturday, which
will continue the warm temperatures across the area. Temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees above normal, with highs mostly in
the upper 70s and 80s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
Coulston

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent
lee trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated
by passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure
gradient and deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy
conditions each afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of
shortwave features vary widely among model solutions, as is
typical of a weakly forced mid-summer weather pattern. Hence,
confidence is rather low regarding specific details of the
forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.

Most of central MT still under clear skies at 1730Z, with SCT-
BKN mid-level clouds and isolated -SHRA from KHLN south to KWYS.
Upper- level trough in NW MT will track eastward this aftn and be
the trigger for scattered thunderstorms, starting initially along
the Continental Divide by 18-19Z and moving east through the
aftn/early evening period. Good bet that some storms will reach
moderate (TSRA) intensity with locally heavy downpours, small
hail, and outflow gusts of 30-40 kts (possibly higher). Timing of
storms at individual TAF sites will be a bit tricky, so
amendments later this aftn may be needed to fine tune storm
occurrence times. Convective activity tapers off from west to
east starting around 23-00Z, with gradually clearing skies
through the evening/overnight hours. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  87  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
CTB  52  83  52  82 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  89  59  89 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  52  88  53  90 /  40  20  10  20
WEY  43  74  44  77 /  50  30  20  20
DLN  52  86  52  88 /  40  10  10  20
HVR  54  86  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  55  84  56  86 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KGGW 302023
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...
An upper level ridge currently resides over northeast Montana
which is lending to warm and dry weather conditions. However,
showers and thunderstorms are developing across central parts of
the state and tracking east. It is possible that a few showers and
thunderstorms may sneak into the area during the evening and
overnight hours, though confidence is low.

In general, a more active/progressive pattern is expected into
Friday and Saturday. However, confidence remains low through this
period due to large model solution differences. Right now it
appears that afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are a
potential each day with peak daytime heating as weak shortwaves
embedded in the flow aloft help with convective initiation, giving
some dynamic support. A lone stronger storm with gusty winds and
small hail is also a possibility, especially Saturday evening as
the ridge axis pushes east with a more pronounced approaching
shortwave. Those with holiday plans should pay attention to the
latest forecast for any updates, especially given the uncertainty
with how things will evolve over the next couple of days. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Update: The going forecast is in good shape depicting an active
pattern through the extended. The only tweak was a gently nudge
toward the latest model consensus. Gilchrist

Previous long term discussion: A shortwave trough will move
through the area Saturday Night and Sunday with a weak cold front.
Look for a chance of showers and thunderstorms with this system
that could linger into Sunday Night or Monday morning in the east.

The forecast area should be between waves Monday afternoon and
night with mainly dry weather.

Southwest flow aloft with frequent shortwaves is expected from
Tuesday through the end of the period Thursday. With an unstable
atmosphere, look for at least a slight chance of thunderstorms
each day. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: Currently seeing an increase in mid level cumulus clouds
near all of the airports this afternoon, but VFR conditions
should prevail through the evening and tonight except near any
thunderstorms that may develop.

Otherwise, expect increasing mid level clouds this evening with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight and into friday
morning.

Wind: Southeast to east this evening through tomorrow morning at
10 to 20 knots.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 302022
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon in
response to a shortwave passing through the region. Majority of
the thunderstorms are forecast to be along and east of the
Continental Divide this afternoon and through Lemhi County Idaho.
Most of the storms should be out of the area by early this
evening. Friday is still on track to a little warmer than today,
and most of the region will be dry except for southwest Montana
where a few storms are possible.

For July 4th weekend, a few weak disturbances will bring
showers/thunderstorms to the area Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
Right now the best chance for these showers/thunderstorms looks to
be over southwest Montana and northwest Montana particularly the
Glacier Park area on Saturday. Temperatures will still be slightly
above normal but will be cooler than the past few days with highs
in the 80s for most valleys. Winds are expected to become breezy
out of the west each afternoon with wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph
expected. The breeziest days are expected on Sunday and Monday
afternoons.

Beyond Monday, latest global models are now showing a trough for
the middle of next week. There has been lots of uncertainty in the
far extended forecast but it looks like we should see cooler
temperatures and possibly some showers by middle to late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms have been developing this afternoon across Northern
Rockies airspace. Most activity is still forecast to take place
over the high terrain near the Continental Divide and most
particularly across southwest Montana, including KBTM, but a few
have developed in northwest Montana as well. Thunderstorm
potential peaks 30/2100 through 01/0100Z for KBTM, 30/2300Z
through 01/0200Z for KMSO, and 30/2200Z through 01/0100Z for KSMN.
Terrain will be obscured in the presence of developing showers and
thunderstorms. Wind gusts to 25 knots are anticipated near any
thunderstorm. Showers and thunderstorms are expected dissipate
rapidly across the region after 01/0300Z


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301750
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1145 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Latest analysis shows fair amount of clear skies across the
forecast area except for broad coverage of mid-level clouds from
around across much of southwest MT. There are also some weak rain
showers in that same area that are moving steadily eastward.
Forecast on track for more widespread thunderstorm activity today
as a shortwave trof entering northwest MT now moves east of the
Divide this aftn. Very-short range models continue to indicate an
earlier start to the storms today, with initial storms forming
along the Rocky Mtn Front and southwest mtn ranges between noon
and 3pm. Storm development moves east across the central counties
this aftn/eve. A few strong storms (hail to 0.5 inch, heavy
downpours, and wind gusts of 35-50 mph) are likely; cannot rule
out a severe storm or two, though current wind shear projections
are on the low to marginal side for severe storms.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.

Most of central MT still under clear skies at 1730Z, with SCT-BKN
mid-level clouds and isolated -SHRA from KHLN south to KWYS. Upper-
level trough in NW MT will track eastward this aftn and be the
trigger for scattered thunderstorms, starting initially along the
Continental Divide by 18-19Z and moving east through the aftn/early
evening period. Good bet that some storms will reach moderate (TSRA)
intensity with locally heavy downpours, small hail, and outflow
gusts of 30-40 kts (possibly higher). Timing of storms at individual
TAF sites will be a bit tricky, so amendments later this aftn may be
needed to fine tune storm occurrence times. Convective activity
tapers off from west to east starting around 23-00Z, with gradually
clearing skies through the evening/overnight hours.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /

Today...An upper level ridge with axis north through the US and
Canadian Rockies remains in place across the region with satellite
imagery early this morning showing a shortwave disturbance upstream
over Southern BC/WA while additional energy is moving NE across SW
ID. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing along/just north of
the AB border as well as in the vicinity of the Bears Paw Mtns and
an area of somewhat more organized shower/thunderstorm activity
moving east between Helena and Bozeman early this morning. This
activity should propagate east/southeast but diminish in intensity
through the early morning period. Previously mentioned shortwave
energy to the W and SW will move into the forecast area this
afternoon setting up favorable conditions for more widespread
thunderstorm activity today across much of the forecast area,
diminishing this evening as the shortwave energy tracks east into
eastern MT. An inverted surface trough of low pressure also deepens
along the Continental Divide today as the shortwave energy
approaches, setting up a SE Low level flow across the plains through
late this afternoon. Instability/CAPE is moderate and while shear is
somewhat marginal at around 30kts, the SE low level flow across N-
central MT could set up a favorable environment for some storms to
approach severe levels this afternoon, particularly across western
portions of N-central MT where shear will be highest. Isolated
damaging wind and hail will be the main threats. PW values around an
inch indicate heavy rain is also possible, but with storm motion
around 15-20kts it should not be excessive.

Tonight through Saturday...Drier air moves in from the west behind
todays shortwave energy with westerly flow aloft increasing late
Friday through Saturday as the upper level ridge de-amplifies.
This will limit chances for convection across northern portions
of the forecast area though a small chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue across SW MT Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures remain warm and above seasonal averages with surface
winds becoming W/SW friday and increasing some on Saturday.
Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent lee
trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated by
passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure gradient and
deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy conditions each
afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of shortwave features
vary widely among model solutions, as is typical of a weakly forced
mid-summer weather pattern. Hence, confidence is rather low
regarding specific details of the forecast. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  54  87  56 /  50  30  10  10
CTB  81  49  83  52 /  30  30  10  10
HLN  82  57  89  59 /  40  30  10  10
BZN  82  51  88  53 /  40  40  20  10
WEY  74  42  74  44 /  40  30  20  20
DLN  80  51  86  52 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  83  54  86  57 /  20  30  10  10
LWT  79  54  84  56 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301638
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1038 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Latest analysis shows fair amount of clear skies across the
forecast area except for broad coverage of mid-level clouds from
around across much of southwest MT. There are also some weak rain
showers in that same area that are moving steadily eastward.
Forecast on track for more widespread thunderstorm activity today
as a shortwave trof entering northwest MT now moves east of the
Divide this aftn. Very-short range models continue to indicate an
earlier start to the storms today, with initial storms forming
along the Rocky Mtn Front and southwest mtn ranges between noon
and 3pm. Storm development moves east across the central counties
this aftn/eve. A few strong storms (hail to 0.5 inch, heavy
downpours, and wind gusts of 35-50 mph) are likely; cannot rule
out a severe storm or two, though current wind shear projections
are on the low to marginal side for severe storms.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

A few showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will linger through
early this morning in the KHVR, KHLN and KBZN vicinity with brief
MVFR ceilings and local wind gusts to 25kts possible through 14z. A
period of clearing later this morning will be followed by increasing
coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon. Brief period of MVFR
possible in TS activity this afternoon with some potential for
stronger wind gusts along with heavy rain, particularly at N-central
MT terminals. TS activity diminishes from W-E after 00z. Surface
winds will increase from the E/SE across N-central MT late this
morning through this afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /

Today...An upper level ridge with axis north through the US and
Canadian Rockies remains in place across the region with satellite
imagery early this morning showing a shortwave disturbance upstream
over Southern BC/WA while additional energy is moving NE across SW
ID. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing along/just north of
the AB border as well as in the vicinity of the Bears Paw Mtns and
an area of somewhat more organized shower/thunderstorm activity
moving east between Helena and Bozeman early this morning. This
activity should propagate east/southeast but diminish in intensity
through the early morning period. Previously mentioned shortwave
energy to the W and SW will move into the forecast area this
afternoon setting up favorable conditions for more widespread
thunderstorm activity today across much of the forecast area,
diminishing this evening as the shortwave energy tracks east into
eastern MT. An inverted surface trough of low pressure also deepens
along the Continental Divide today as the shortwave energy
approaches, setting up a SE Low level flow across the plains through
late this afternoon. Instability/CAPE is moderate and while shear is
somewhat marginal at around 30kts, the SE low level flow across N-
central MT could set up a favorable environment for some storms to
approach severe levels this afternoon, particularly across western
portions of N-central MT where shear will be highest. Isolated
damaging wind and hail will be the main threats. PW values around an
inch indicate heavy rain is also possible, but with storm motion
around 15-20kts it should not be excessive.

Tonight through Saturday...Drier air moves in from the west behind
todays shortwave energy with westerly flow aloft increasing late
Friday through Saturday as the upper level ridge de-amplifies.
This will limit chances for convection across northern portions
of the forecast area though a small chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue across SW MT Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures remain warm and above seasonal averages with surface
winds becoming W/SW friday and increasing some on Saturday.
Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent lee
trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated by
passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure gradient and
deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy conditions each
afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of shortwave features
vary widely among model solutions, as is typical of a weakly forced
mid-summer weather pattern. Hence, confidence is rather low
regarding specific details of the forecast. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  54  87  56 /  50  30  10  10
CTB  81  49  83  52 /  30  30  10  10
HLN  82  57  89  59 /  40  30  10  10
BZN  82  51  88  53 /  40  40  20  10
WEY  74  42  74  44 /  40  30  20  20
DLN  80  51  86  52 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  83  54  86  57 /  20  30  10  10
LWT  79  54  84  56 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301544
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
944 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Area of PV moving thru south central MT is producing a small area
of showers with a few lightning strikes near Livingston and the
Paradise Valley. Our west will be the focus for convection today
in response to this energy and another shortwave skirting across
WA and southern BC. While CAPES on the order of 500-1000 J/KG and
up to 30 kts of effective bulk shear suggest a strong storm or two
is possible, the potential for severe weather today is minimal.
Eastern areas will be under the influence of a much more stable
sfc ridge which has settled over the northern plains, and should
stay dry until shortwave pushes east later tonight into Friday
morning. All of this covered well in the current forecast so have
made few changes this morning. Edited morning pops to lower
chances except for along the mountains and foothills. Also
adjusted tstm timing for Billings which should be closer to 00z if
not later. High temps today will be seasonal and in the 80s. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Subtle features in current weather pattern will continue to affect
our region in the short term period. Easterly surface wind and
westerly mid level flow will persist, keeping shear relatively
high. Progs suggest CAPE will not be quite as high as recent days
with values generally 500-1000 J/KG. So while we may see a few
strong storms, the chance of anything severe appears rather
remote. The main forecast issue will be timing and placement PoPs
due to the weak nature of the short waves/impulses in the W/NW
flow.

For today, while a weak impulse allows some weak showers to
persist over southwestern portions of our CWA this morning, current
water vapor imagery supports the progs depiction of another
impulse currently in entering Idaho tracking into our western in
zones later this afternoon. This feature is expected to gradually
moving eastward through the evening producing isolated to
scattered convection. Some model soundings keep our further
eastern zones capped, but would not be surprised to see at least
some limited convection pop as the weak energy passes through. So
will keep low PoPs in the east.

Convective potential may decrease a bit Friday under shortwave
ridging, especially over the northwest third of the CWA. However,
moisture and instability will remain in place so slight pops
should suffice for most areas during the afternoon and evening.

Temps will remain above normal but not in an extreme sense. Expect
highs in the 80s to lower 90s each of the next couple days. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Only minor changes to the extended forecast this morning. Overall
warm weather will continue...with continued potential for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The shortwave progged for Saturday is still on track to push into
the region by saturday evening. The wave will pushing ridging
eastward and initiate southwest flow to the region. Southwest
flow will remain in place through about Wednesday...with ridge
axis just to the east. This will keep temps in the 90s and at
least scattered pops in place through that period. A cold front
approaches Wednesday...but models differ on how far cold front
drops into the region...as well as how much qpf can be
expected...so have carried on slight pops at this point. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms along the Beartooth Mountains and near
LVM this morning. Expect additional development over the high
terrain near LVM and SHR through the early afternoon. VCTS
possible at BIL and MLS in the late afternoon/early evening.
Expect winds to remain easterly with VFR conditions at all sites
aside from brief thunderstorm impacts. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/091 062/094 062/092 060/090 060/089 059/087
    2/T 22/T    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 084 050/090 052/092 053/087 050/087 049/086 048/084
    4/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 088 058/090 058/094 059/093 058/091 057/091 056/088
    2/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    12/T
MLS 085 062/089 062/093 063/092 061/091 061/090 060/088
    1/U 22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    12/T    22/T
4BQ 086 060/086 060/093 062/094 062/092 061/093 060/090
    2/T 23/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    11/B    22/T
BHK 081 055/082 057/088 059/090 060/090 058/089 057/086
    0/U 13/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 086 055/087 054/091 055/092 055/090 054/091 054/089
    3/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KGGW 301523
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
923 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Sat...
Update...

An upper ridge over the region will maintain relatively quiet
weather conditions for today before a more active pattern unfolds
into the weekend, however, specific details on timing and
placement of shower activity remains in question at this time.
After assessing the very latest 12z guidance, will try and paint a
more robust picture with the afternoon package. Maliawco

Previous Discussion...

Weather pattern over the northern Rockies and adjacent northern
high plains region today will transition from a moderate ridge of
high pressure to more of a zonal flow through the forecast period.
This will all be driven by the low pressure center and its
associated upper-level trough upstream over British Columbia.

Best consensus for accumulating precipitation will be tonight
through Friday night and then on Saturday afternoon and evening,
although this later period shows a bit more model discrepancy with
timing, placement, and intensity of the thunderstorms. Storm
Prediction Center has outlined this latter period - Day 3 - for
marginally severe thunderstorms, but given the current model
uncertainty, will forego mentioning any enhanced forecast wording
or an HWO for now.

BMickelson


.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

A shortwave trough will move through the area Saturday Night and
Sunday with a weak cold front. Look for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with this system that could linger into Sunday Night
or Monday morning in the east.

The forecast area should be between waves Monday afternoon and
night with mainly dry weather.

Southwest flow aloft with frequent shortwaves is expected from
Tuesday through the end of the period Thursday. With an unstable
atmosphere, look for at least a slight chance of thunderstorms
each day. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: Some scattered low (ifr) clouds will linger through mid
morning at ksdy, before burning off with daytime heating.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight.
A few mid and high level clouds can be expected today. Look for
increasing mid level clouds this evening with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms after midnight and into friday morning.

Wind: Northeast to east at 5 to 10 kts early, veering to the
southeast by afternoon and increasing to 10 to 20 kts and
continuing tonight.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301134
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
530 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Today...An upper level ridge with axis north through the US and
Canadian Rockies remains in place across the region with satellite
imagery early this morning showing a shortwave disturbance upstream
over Southern BC/WA while additional energy is moving NE across SW
ID. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing along/just north of
the AB border as well as in the vicinity of the Bears Paw Mtns and
an area of somewhat more organized shower/thunderstorm activity
moving east between Helena and Bozeman early this morning. This
activity should propagate east/southeast but diminish in intensity
through the early morning period. Previously mentioned shortwave
energy to the W and SW will move into the forecast area this
afternoon setting up favorable conditions for more widespread
thunderstorm activity today across much of the forecast area,
diminishing this evening as the shortwave energy tracks east into
eastern MT. An inverted surface trough of low pressure also deepens
along the Continental Divide today as the shortwave energy
approaches, setting up a SE Low level flow across the plains through
late this afternoon. Instability/CAPE is moderate and while shear is
somewhat marginal at around 30kts, the SE low level flow across N-
central MT could set up a favorable environment for some storms to
approach severe levels this afternoon, particularly across western
portions of N-central MT where shear will be highest. Isolated
damaging wind and hail will be the main threats. PW values around an
inch indicate heavy rain is also possible, but with storm motion
around 15-20kts it should not be excessive.

Tonight through Saturday...Drier air moves in from the west behind
todays shortwave energy with westerly flow aloft increasing late
Friday through Saturday as the upper level ridge de-amplifies.
This will limit chances for convection across northern portions
of the forecast area though a small chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue across SW MT Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures remain warm and above seasonal averages with surface
winds becoming W/SW friday and increasing some on Saturday.
Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent lee
trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated by
passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure gradient and
deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy conditions each
afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of shortwave features
vary widely among model solutions, as is typical of a weakly forced
mid-summer weather pattern. Hence, confidence is rather low
regarding specific details of the forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

A few showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will linger through
early this morning in the KHVR, KHLN and KBZN vicinity with brief
MVFR ceilings and local wind gusts to 25kts possible through 14z. A
period of clearing later this morning will be followed by increasing
coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon. Brief period of MVFR
possible in TS activity this afternoon with some potential for
stronger wind gusts along with heavy rain, particularly at N-central
MT terminals. TS activity diminishes from W-E after 00z. Surface
winds will increase from the E/SE across N-central MT late this
morning through this afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  54  87  56 /  50  30  10  10
CTB  81  49  83  52 /  30  30  10  10
HLN  82  57  89  59 /  30  30  10  10
BZN  82  51  88  53 /  30  40  20  10
WEY  74  42  74  44 /  40  30  20  20
DLN  80  51  86  52 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  83  54  86  57 /  20  30  10  10
LWT  79  54  84  56 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301134
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
530 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Today...An upper level ridge with axis north through the US and
Canadian Rockies remains in place across the region with satellite
imagery early this morning showing a shortwave disturbance upstream
over Southern BC/WA while additional energy is moving NE across SW
ID. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing along/just north of
the AB border as well as in the vicinity of the Bears Paw Mtns and
an area of somewhat more organized shower/thunderstorm activity
moving east between Helena and Bozeman early this morning. This
activity should propagate east/southeast but diminish in intensity
through the early morning period. Previously mentioned shortwave
energy to the W and SW will move into the forecast area this
afternoon setting up favorable conditions for more widespread
thunderstorm activity today across much of the forecast area,
diminishing this evening as the shortwave energy tracks east into
eastern MT. An inverted surface trough of low pressure also deepens
along the Continental Divide today as the shortwave energy
approaches, setting up a SE Low level flow across the plains through
late this afternoon. Instability/CAPE is moderate and while shear is
somewhat marginal at around 30kts, the SE low level flow across N-
central MT could set up a favorable environment for some storms to
approach severe levels this afternoon, particularly across western
portions of N-central MT where shear will be highest. Isolated
damaging wind and hail will be the main threats. PW values around an
inch indicate heavy rain is also possible, but with storm motion
around 15-20kts it should not be excessive.

Tonight through Saturday...Drier air moves in from the west behind
todays shortwave energy with westerly flow aloft increasing late
Friday through Saturday as the upper level ridge de-amplifies.
This will limit chances for convection across northern portions
of the forecast area though a small chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue across SW MT Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures remain warm and above seasonal averages with surface
winds becoming W/SW friday and increasing some on Saturday.
Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent lee
trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated by
passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure gradient and
deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy conditions each
afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of shortwave features
vary widely among model solutions, as is typical of a weakly forced
mid-summer weather pattern. Hence, confidence is rather low
regarding specific details of the forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

A few showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will linger through
early this morning in the KHVR, KHLN and KBZN vicinity with brief
MVFR ceilings and local wind gusts to 25kts possible through 14z. A
period of clearing later this morning will be followed by increasing
coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon. Brief period of MVFR
possible in TS activity this afternoon with some potential for
stronger wind gusts along with heavy rain, particularly at N-central
MT terminals. TS activity diminishes from W-E after 00z. Surface
winds will increase from the E/SE across N-central MT late this
morning through this afternoon. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  54  87  56 /  50  30  10  10
CTB  81  49  83  52 /  30  30  10  10
HLN  82  57  89  59 /  30  30  10  10
BZN  82  51  88  53 /  30  40  20  10
WEY  74  42  74  44 /  40  30  20  20
DLN  80  51  86  52 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  83  54  86  57 /  20  30  10  10
LWT  79  54  84  56 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301028
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
428 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Subtle features in current weather pattern will continue to affect
our region in the short term period. Easterly surface wind and
westerly mid level flow will persist, keeping shear relatively
high. Progs suggest CAPE will not be quite as high as recent days
with values generally 500-1000 J/KG. So while we may see a few
strong storms, the chance of anything severe appears rather
remote. The main forecast issue will be timing and placement PoPs
due to the weak nature of the short waves/impulses in the W/NW
flow.

For today, while a weak impulse allows some weak showers to
persist over southwestern portions of our CWA this morning, current
water vapor imagery supports the progs depiction of another
impulse currently in entering Idaho tracking into our western in
zones later this afternoon. This feature is expected to gradually
moving eastward through the evening producing isolated to
scattered convection. Some model soundings keep our further
eastern zones capped, but would not be surprised to see at least
some limited convection pop as the weak energy passes through. So
will keep low PoPs in the east.

Convective potential may decrease a bit Friday under shortwave
ridging, especially over the northwest third of the CWA. However,
moisture and instability will remain in place so slight pops
should suffice for most areas during the afternoon and evening.

Temps will remain above normal but not in an extreme sense. Expect
highs in the 80s to lower 90s each of the next couple days. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Only minor changes to the extended forecast this morning. Overall
warm weather will continue...with continued potential for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The shortwave progged for Saturday is still on track to push into
the region by saturday evening. The wave will pushing ridging
eastward and initiate southwest flow to the region. Southwest
flow will remain in place through about Wednesday...with ridge
axis just to the east. This will keep temps in the 90s and at
least scattered pops in place through that period. A cold front
approaches Wednesday...but models differ on how far cold front
drops into the region...as well as how much qpf can be
expected...so have carried on slight pops at this point. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across western
zone...mainly west of a line from KBIL to KSHR...and are slowly
moving eastward. Localized MVFR conditions are possible with
heavier precip. Otherwise...Conditions should remain VFR for the
rest of the period. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/091 062/094 062/092 060/090 060/089 059/087
    2/T 22/T    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 084 050/090 052/092 053/087 050/087 049/086 048/084
    3/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 088 058/090 058/094 059/093 058/091 057/091 056/088
    2/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    12/T
MLS 085 062/089 062/093 063/092 061/091 061/090 060/088
    1/B 22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    12/T    22/T
4BQ 086 060/086 060/093 062/094 062/092 061/093 060/090
    2/T 23/T    22/T    22/T    22/W    11/B    22/T
BHK 081 055/082 057/088 059/090 060/090 058/089 057/086
    1/B 13/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 086 055/087 054/091 055/092 055/090 054/091 054/089
    3/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KMSO 301001
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
401 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

...Mostly dry and breezy over the July 4th weekend...

.DISCUSSION...

An unstable atmosphere will remain over the Northern Rockies,
particularly near the Continental Divide, through Friday. Weather
models continue to struggle with the finer details of thunderstorm
development during the overnight hours, however there is
reasonable confidence in a relatively quiet weather period outside
of showers and thunderstorms along the Divide this afternoon and
evening, and again to a lesser extent Friday afternoon and
evening. Gusty winds, brief moderate rain, and hail up to one half
inch will be possible with the larger showers and any thunderstorm
that develop. Seasonally warm temperatures will persist through
the end of the week, with afternoons reaching upper 80s to lower
90s. Even in the absence of showers and thunderstorms, valley
winds will become gusty for a short while late each afternoon.

For the July 4th weekend through the middle of next week, a
persistent southwest flow will remain across the Northern Rockies
allowing warm and breezy conditions to continue. A few
thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoons, but overall the
weather will be mostly dry. Breezy winds of 15 to 25 mph will be
common in the afternoon and evening hours, when combined with the
recent dry weather will lead to an increased fire danger. Daytime
temperatures will reach slightly above seasonable levels with 80s
for most valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...

Spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will be present across
Northern Rockies airspace during the next 24 hours. Most activity
will take place over the high terrain near the Continental Divide
and most particularly across southwest Montana, including KBTM.
Thunderstorm potential peaks 30/1800Z through 01/0100Z for KBTM,
30/2300Z through 01/0200Z for KMSO, and 30/2200Z through 01/0100Z
for KSMN. Terrain will be obscured in the presence of developing
showers and thunderstorms. Wind gusts to 25 knots are anticipated
near any thunderstorm. Showers and thunderstorms are expected dissipate
rapidly across the region after 01/0300Z

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300935
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
335 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today...An upper level ridge with axis north through the US and
Canadian Rockies remains in place across the region with satellite
imagery early this morning showing a shortwave disturbance
upstream over Southern BC/WA while additional energy is moving NE
into SW ID. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing along/just
north of the AB border as well as an area of somewhat more
organized thunderstorm activity moving east into the Jefferson
county area early this morning. This activity should propagate
east but diminish in intensity through the early morning period.
Previously mentioned shortwave energy to the W and SW will move
into the forecast area this afternoon setting up favorable
conditions for more widespread thunderstorm activity today across
much of the forecast area, diminishing this evening as the
shortwave energy tracks east into eastern MT. An inverted surface
trough of low pressure also deepens along the Continental Divide
today as the shortwave energy approaches, setting up a SE Low
level flow across the plains through late this afternoon.
Instability/CAPE is moderate and while shear is somewhat marginal
at around 30kts, the SE low level flow across N-central MT could
set up a favorable environment for some storms to approach severe
levels this afternoon, particularly across western portions of
N-central MT where shear will be highest. Isolated damaging wind
and hail will be the main threats. PW values around an inch
indicate heavy rain is also possible, but with storm motion around
15-20kts it should not be excessive.

Tonight through Saturday...Drier air moves in from the west behind
todays shortwave energy with westerly flow aloft increasing late
Friday through Saturday as the upper level ridge de-amplifies.
This will limit chances for convection across northern portions
of the forecast area though a small chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will continue across SW MT Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures remain warm and above seasonal averages with surface
winds becoming W/SW friday and increasing some on Saturday.
Hoenisch

Saturday night through Thursday...West-southwest flow aloft
generally prevails through the period with seasonal temperatures.
Moisture is rather limited in this pattern as total precipitable
water trends near to below average. Isolated, mainly diurnal
convection is possible, enhanced by the periodic passage of
shortwave energy rotating through the flow. A rather persistent lee
trough sets up along the east slope of the Rockies, modulated by
passing shortwave energy aloft. The associated pressure gradient and
deep layer mixing will produce rather breezy conditions each
afternoon. Details in the timing and amplitude of shortwave features
vary widely among model solutions, as is typical of a weakly forced
mid-summer weather pattern. Hence, confidence is rather low
regarding specific details of the forecast. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

Thunderstorm activity is clearing KBZN as of 06Z. Isolated TS remain
possible overnight, but VFR conditions are expected all terminals
through early afternoon Thursday. An upper level disturbance will
then combine with unstable and moist air Thursday afternoon to
produce numerous thunderstorms across the forecast area. Confidence
in timing and position of thunderstorms relative to area terminals
remains low. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  54  87  56 /  50  30  10  10
CTB  81  49  83  52 /  30  30  10  10
HLN  82  57  89  59 /  30  30  10  10
BZN  82  51  88  53 /  30  40  20  10
WEY  74  42  74  44 /  40  30  20  20
DLN  80  51  86  52 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  83  54  86  57 /  20  30  10  10
LWT  79  54  84  56 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300919
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
319 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Sat...

Weather pattern over the northern Rockies and adjacent northern
high plains region today will transition from a moderate ridge of
high pressure to more of a zonal flow through the forecast period.
This will all be driven by the low pressure center and its
associated upper-level trough upstream over British Columbia.

Best consensus for accumulating precipitation will be tonight
through Friday night and then on Saturday afternoon and evening,
although this later period shows a bit more model discrepancy with
timing, placement, and intensity of the thunderstorms. Storm
Prediction Center has outlined this latter period - Day 3 - for
marginally severe thunderstorms, but given the current model
uncertainty, will forego mentioning any enhanced forecast wording
or an HWO for now. BMickelson


.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

A shortwave trough will move through the area Saturday Night and
Sunday with a weak cold front. Look for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with this system that could linger into Sunday Night
or Monday morning in the east.

The forecast area should be between waves Monday afternoon and
night with mainly dry weather.

Southwest flow aloft with frequent shortwaves is expected from
Tuesday through the end of the period Thursday. With an unstable
atmosphere, look for at least a slight chance of thunderstorms
each day. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. A few mid
and high level clouds can be expected today. Look for increasing
mid level clouds this evening with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight and into friday morning.

Wind: Northeast to east at 5 to 10 kts early, veering to the
southeast by afternoon and increasing to 10 to 20 kts and
continuing tonight.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300606
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1150 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track
across southwest Montana this evening while north central
Montana has partly cloudy skies and only one or two isolated
cells. Have updated forecast for the remainder of tonight to lower
PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area while leaving
scattered PoPs going through the remainder of the evening in the
southwest. Models continue to suggest that isolated showers remain
possible after midnight across a large portion of the CWA. Am not
completely sold on this but went ahead and left isolated PoPs in
place into the early morning hours. Have also updated diurnal
temperature trend and winds based upon short term model consensus
tools. Only minor changes resulted from the non-PoP updates.
Tomorrow afternoon continues to look favorable for a bit more
widespread coverage of scattered showers across the region. Latest
convective outlooks from SPC keep us in the "general" convective
area so strong to severe storms do not appear likely at this time.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

Thunderstorm activity is clearing KBZN as of 06Z. Isolated TS remain
possible overnight, but VFR conditions are expected all terminals
through early afternoon Thursday. An upper level disturbance will
then combine with unstable and moist air Thursday afternoon to
produce numerous thunderstorms across the forecast area. Confidence
in timing and position of thunderstorms relative to area terminals
remains low. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /

Tonight through Friday...A high pressure ridge will remain over
the forecast area overnight. However, weak disturbances will move
over the weakly unstable airmass, which will continue to generate
isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of western and central
Montana. A few of these storms may move out onto the plains this
evening, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. The main
threats from these storms will be brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph, similar to yesterday, though small hail is also
possible. Storms will decrease overnight, but recent history shows
that a few storms will remain possible. A shortwave trough will
then move into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, and the
resulting southwest flow aloft and southeast low level winds will
tap into eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture,
respectively. This will bring a good chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to most of the forecast area. With an inverted
surface trough bringing warmer and more unstable air into the area
and increased wind shear (around 40 kt), some storms during the
afternoon and evening may become strong with strong gusty winds,
hail, and brief heavy rain. Will continue to monitor this
situation. After this shortwave exits the area Thursday night,
the surface trough will shift east into eastern Montana, focusing
the potential for stronger storms there on Friday. Otherwise,
breezy westerly downslope winds will limit storm development over
the east slopes of the Rockies and focus the potential over
southwest Montana. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees
above normal, with lows mostly in the 50s and highs mostly in the
80s.  Coulston

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  85  55  88 /  20  30  20  10
CTB  55  82  50  84 /  20  30  10  10
HLN  61  84  57  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  57  84  51  88 /  30  30  20  20
WEY  49  73  43  74 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  56  83  51  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  58  84  55  88 /  10  20  40  10
LWT  57  81  53  85 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300606
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1150 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track
across southwest Montana this evening while north central
Montana has partly cloudy skies and only one or two isolated
cells. Have updated forecast for the remainder of tonight to lower
PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area while leaving
scattered PoPs going through the remainder of the evening in the
southwest. Models continue to suggest that isolated showers remain
possible after midnight across a large portion of the CWA. Am not
completely sold on this but went ahead and left isolated PoPs in
place into the early morning hours. Have also updated diurnal
temperature trend and winds based upon short term model consensus
tools. Only minor changes resulted from the non-PoP updates.
Tomorrow afternoon continues to look favorable for a bit more
widespread coverage of scattered showers across the region. Latest
convective outlooks from SPC keep us in the "general" convective
area so strong to severe storms do not appear likely at this time.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

Thunderstorm activity is clearing KBZN as of 06Z. Isolated TS remain
possible overnight, but VFR conditions are expected all terminals
through early afternoon Thursday. An upper level disturbance will
then combine with unstable and moist air Thursday afternoon to
produce numerous thunderstorms across the forecast area. Confidence
in timing and position of thunderstorms relative to area terminals
remains low. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /

Tonight through Friday...A high pressure ridge will remain over
the forecast area overnight. However, weak disturbances will move
over the weakly unstable airmass, which will continue to generate
isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of western and central
Montana. A few of these storms may move out onto the plains this
evening, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. The main
threats from these storms will be brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph, similar to yesterday, though small hail is also
possible. Storms will decrease overnight, but recent history shows
that a few storms will remain possible. A shortwave trough will
then move into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, and the
resulting southwest flow aloft and southeast low level winds will
tap into eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture,
respectively. This will bring a good chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to most of the forecast area. With an inverted
surface trough bringing warmer and more unstable air into the area
and increased wind shear (around 40 kt), some storms during the
afternoon and evening may become strong with strong gusty winds,
hail, and brief heavy rain. Will continue to monitor this
situation. After this shortwave exits the area Thursday night,
the surface trough will shift east into eastern Montana, focusing
the potential for stronger storms there on Friday. Otherwise,
breezy westerly downslope winds will limit storm development over
the east slopes of the Rockies and focus the potential over
southwest Montana. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees
above normal, with lows mostly in the 50s and highs mostly in the
80s.  Coulston

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  85  55  88 /  20  30  20  10
CTB  55  82  50  84 /  20  30  10  10
HLN  61  84  57  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  57  84  51  88 /  30  30  20  20
WEY  49  73  43  74 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  56  83  51  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  58  84  55  88 /  10  20  40  10
LWT  57  81  53  85 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300329
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
929 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track
across southwest Montana this evening while north central
Montana has partly cloudy skies and only one or two isolated
cells. Have updated forecast for the remainder of tonight to lower
PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area while leaving
scattered PoPs going through the remainder of the evening in the
southwest. Models continue to suggest that isolated showers remain
possible after midnight across a large portion of the CWA. Am not
completely sold on this but went ahead and left isolated PoPs in
place into the early morning hours. Have also updated diurnal
temperature trend and winds based upon short term model consensus
tools. Only minor changes resulted from the non-PoP updates.
Tomorrow afternoon continues to look favorable for a bit more
widespread coverage of scattered showers across the region. Latest
convective outlooks from SPC keep us in the "general" convective
area so strong to severe storms do not appear likely at this time.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.

VFR conditions will generally persist at least through Thursday. A
disturbance in the westerly flow aloft will bring isolated
thunderstorms with brief heavy rain showers and wind gusts to 30kt
to the Hi-Line (including KCTB and KHVR) between 02Z and 10Z.
Also, a disturbance moving over southwest Montana may bring
showers to the KHLN and KBZN terminals between 10Z and 15Z.
Otherwise, only scattered mid clouds are expected through around
18Z. A larger disturbance will then combine with unstable and
moist air after 18Z to bring a better chance of thunderstorms to
the forecast area. Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /

Tonight through Friday...A high pressure ridge will remain over
the forecast area overnight. However, weak disturbances will move
over the weakly unstable airmass, which will continue to generate
isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of western and central
Montana. A few of these storms may move out onto the plains this
evening, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. The main
threats from these storms will be brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph, similar to yesterday, though small hail is also
possible. Storms will decrease overnight, but recent history shows
that a few storms will remain possible. A shortwave trough will
then move into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, and the
resulting southwest flow aloft and southeast low level winds will
tap into eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture,
respectively. This will bring a good chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to most of the forecast area. With an inverted
surface trough bringing warmer and more unstable air into the area
and increased wind shear (around 40 kt), some storms during the
afternoon and evening may become strong with strong gusty winds,
hail, and brief heavy rain. Will continue to monitor this
situation. After this shortwave exits the area Thursday night,
the surface trough will shift east into eastern Montana, focusing
the potential for stronger storms there on Friday. Otherwise,
breezy westerly downslope winds will limit storm development over
the east slopes of the Rockies and focus the potential over
southwest Montana. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees
above normal, with lows mostly in the 50s and highs mostly in the
80s.  Coulston

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  85  55  88 /  20  30  20  10
CTB  55  82  50  84 /  20  30  10  10
HLN  61  84  57  89 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  57  84  51  88 /  30  30  20  20
WEY  49  73  43  74 /  20  50  30  20
DLN  56  83  51  86 /  10  30  20  10
HVR  58  84  55  88 /  10  20  40  10
LWT  57  81  53  85 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300306 AAA
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
906 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...

Sent an update tonight to give more detail to and fine tune the
near and short term forecast grids for tonight and tomorrow,
following mostly the best model consensus. Current thunderstorm
just north of our international border is not well represented in
most models, but is beginning to be noticed by the HRRR. Felt it
was prudent to increase PoPs over our northern and northeastern
zones and gradually allow it to dissipate as it moves slowly
southeastward. BMickelson

Previous short term discussion: An upper ridge over the Pacific
Northwest is translating east and is helping to drive northwest
flow aloft across Northeast Montana. Meanwhile, an embedded
shortwave is providing forcing for ascent allowing a few showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the area this afternoon into
this evening.

As the shortwave ridge pushes over the region, drier weather is
expected later tonight and on Thursday. However, as a relatively
progressive pattern continues, the next shortwave will be
approaching for Thursday night and Friday with additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Maliawco


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

Only minor changes for the going forecast. Occasional chances of
thunderstorms during period with the main focus on a cold front
passage Saturday night. Ebert

Previous long term discussion...The general evolution of the
weather pattern for the extended forecast period will feature
increasing zonal flow and southwesterly flow aloft as a slow-
moving low pressure system over the Canadian Rockies gradually
dips southward and repeatedly introduces isolated to scattered
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeast Montana.

The best consensus for accumulating precipitation seems to cluster
across our eastern zones from Saturday evening through Sunday.
Given that this time frame falls within the popular 4th of July
holiday weekend, those with outdoor and recreation plans should
closely follow the evolving threat for thunderstorms. Although for
Monday evening itself, the 4th of July, model consensus calls for
a mainly quiet night for fireworks and other planned outdoor
festivities. This time will continue to be monitored for any
changes in this expected pattern.

Wednesday and beyond, the Canadian Rockies trough will take a more
pronounced and compact dip through our northern Rockies region and
increase chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Tried to reflect this trend but it is out toward the end of the
extended forecast period. Confidence here is average at best.

BMickelson


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR conditions will prevail, though an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through this evening.

Wind: Northeast to east at 5 to 10 kts tonight... veering to the
southeast Thursday and increasing to 10 to 20 kts.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300214
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
814 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...

A few isolated thunderstorms made their way through the area this
evening, resulting in the issuance of a few SPS` and one warning.
Most of the reports resulted in small hail some much needed rain.
Unfortunately, the rain only impacted a very, very small portion
of the region, mainly over Wheatland and Golden Valley Counties.

For this evening update, only decided to make a few changes to
the going forecast. Went ahead and upped the pops to 20 percent or
greater across the western and central zones to account for an
occasional air mass thunderstorm that may pop up overnight.
Otherwise, the going forecast looks good, with high temps in the
80s and 90s tomorrow. Singer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Isolated convection has developed across our cwa this afternoon in
response to diurnal destabilization and very weak energy in WNW
flow aloft. Activity has been mostly over the high terrain with
the exception of a line of showers/tstms from north of Roundup to
Baker and Ekalaka. A couple storms became briefly severe in Fallon
county earlier this afternoon, and there exists a fairly strong
storm near 3HT as of 230 pm. Latest mesoanalysis shows CAPES
climbing up to 1000-1500 J/KG, with effective bulk shear from
35-45 kts. This is enough for strong to severe storms but forcing
is rather weak and HRRR soundings continue to show some modest
mid level capping, and we are starting to mix some drier air as
dew pts have fallen a bit since midday. SO, could see a strong to
perhaps severe storm over the next few hours but we are not
anticipating widespread severe wx.

Some degree of stabilization should occur in our east tonight as
weak pressure rise builds out of southern Saskatchewan. Could see
a few showers/tstms persist thru the night and into early Thursday
courtesy of PV emerging from ID and an easterly low level jet
nosing as far west as Harlowton and Columbus.

While our far east should remain dry and capped on Thursday, as
sfc ridge settles over the northern plains, convective chances
should increase in our west as next shortwave moves in from the
west. Not a big severe threat but could see a few strong storms in
our west Thursday afternoon with an enhanced easterly wind across
our cwa. Activity will spread east thru the night as a bit
stronger llj affects our eastern zones, with some showers/tstms
possible in our east late Thursday night and Friday morning.

Convective potential may decrease a bit Friday under shortwave
ridging, but moisture and instability will remain in place so
slight pops should suffice across the cwa during the afternoon and
evening.

Temps will remain above normal but not in an extreme sense. Expect
highs in the 80s to lower 90s each of the next couple days.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Saturday a weak shortwave pushes eastward of the area as another
more significant shortwave approaches from the west. Temps will
push into the low to mid 90s on Saturday with westerly and
southerly flow at the surface. Frontal forcing will allow for
areas of chance pops over central Montana for Saturday afternoon
and evening. Slight chance of PoPs will remain over the mountain
areas on Sun and Mon with weak forcing across much of the area.
It is not until later in the week when perhaps a more significant
front will move in which could bring more widespread rain chances.
Overall, temperatures should remain fairly stagnant through the
forecast with upper 80s and low 90s during the day and 50s and 60s
for lows in the valleys and along the Plains. Still hedging a
little warmer than guidance on Wednesday because there remains
uncertainty with position of upper-level disturbance. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Easterly winds should prevail at all terminals with a slight
chance of an isolated thunderstorm near KLVM or KBIL overnight.
Conditions should remain VFR for the rest of the period. Singer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/087 060/091 062/093 061/091 059/090 059/089 058/086
    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 053/084 051/090 052/090 050/088 048/087 048/086 047/083
    33/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 057/088 059/090 059/093 057/092 056/090 055/091 054/087
    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 060/085 062/090 062/093 062/091 060/090 060/089 059/087
    21/B    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    12/T    22/T
4BQ 058/085 060/087 060/094 062/094 060/093 059/094 058/090
    21/B    23/T    22/W    22/T    22/W    11/B    22/W
BHK 054/080 055/083 057/089 058/091 057/089 056/089 056/085
    21/B    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 055/086 055/088 055/092 054/092 053/091 053/091 053/088
    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292330
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
530 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...A high pressure ridge will remain over
the forecast area overnight. However, weak disturbances will move
over the weakly unstable airmass, which will continue to generate
isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of western and central
Montana. A few of these storms may move out onto the plains this
evening, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. The main
threats from these storms will be brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph, similar to yesterday, though small hail is also
possible. Storms will decrease overnight, but recent history shows
that a few storms will remain possible. A shortwave trough will
then move into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, and the
resulting southwest flow aloft and southeast low level winds will
tap into eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture,
respectively. This will bring a good chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to most of the forecast area. With an inverted
surface trough bringing warmer and more unstable air into the area
and increased wind shear (around 40 kt), some storms during the
afternoon and evening may become strong with strong gusty winds,
hail, and brief heavy rain. Will continue to monitor this
situation. After this shortwave exits the area Thursday night,
the surface trough will shift east into eastern Montana, focusing
the potential for stronger storms there on Friday. Otherwise,
breezy westerly downslope winds will limit storm development over
the east slopes of the Rockies and focus the potential over
southwest Montana. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees
above normal, with lows mostly in the 50s and highs mostly in the
80s.  Coulston

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.

VFR conditions will generally persist at least through Thursday. A
disturbance in the westerly flow aloft will bring isolated
thunderstorms with brief heavy rain showers and wind gusts to 30kt
to the Hi-Line (including KCTB and KHVR) between 02Z and 10Z. Also,
a disturbance moving over southwest Montana may bring showers to the
KHLN and KBZN terminals between 10Z and 15Z. Otherwise, only
scattered mid clouds are expected through around 18Z. A larger
disturbance will then combine with unstable and moist air after 18Z
to bring a better chance of thunderstorms to the forecast area.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  86  56  88 /  20  30  20  10
CTB  55  82  51  84 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  60  87  58  89 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  56  87  52  88 /  20  30  20  20
WEY  48  74  44  74 /  30  50  30  20
DLN  55  85  52  86 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  58  84  56  88 /  20  20  40  10
LWT  56  82  54  85 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 292112
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
312 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...A high pressure ridge will remain over
the forecast area overnight. However, weak disturbances will move
over the weakly unstable airmass, which will continue to generate
isolated thunderstorms over the mountains of western and central
Montana. A few of these storms may move out onto the plains this
evening, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. The main
threats from these storms will be brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph, similar to yesterday, though small hail is also
possible. Storms will decrease overnight, but recent history shows
that a few storms will remain possible. A shortwave trough will
then move into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, and the
resulting southwest flow aloft and southeast low level winds will
tap into eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture,
respectively. This will bring a good chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to most of the forecast area. With an inverted
surface trough bringing warmer and more unstable air into the area
and increased wind shear (around 40 kt), some storms during the
afternoon and evening may become strong with strong gusty winds,
hail, and brief heavy rain. Will continue to monitor this
situation. After this shortwave exits the area Thursday night,
the surface trough will shift east into eastern Montana, focusing
the potential for stronger storms there on Friday. Otherwise,
breezy westerly downslope winds will limit storm development over
the east slopes of the Rockies and focus the potential over
southwest Montana. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees
above normal, with lows mostly in the 50s and highs mostly in the
80s.  Coulston

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.

Westerly flow aloft with weak embedded disturbances will persist
over the region today. Scattered clouds are already developing
over local mountain ranges and will continue this aftn with
isolated -TSRA developing in some areas. Also expect thunderstorms
to move south-southeast out of Alberta and track toward KCTB/KHVR
this evening. Convective activity should dissipate overnight, but
another weak trough and moisture is forecast to move through
southwest MT, bringing scattered -SHRA vcnty KBZN/KHLN early Thurs
morning. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  86  56  88 /  20  30  20  10
CTB  55  82  51  84 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  60  87  58  89 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  56  87  52  88 /  20  30  20  20
WEY  48  74  44  74 /  30  50  30  20
DLN  55  85  52  86 /  30  30  20  10
HVR  58  84  56  88 /  20  20  40  10
LWT  56  82  54  85 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292036
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
236 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Isolated convection has developed across our cwa this afternoon in
response to diurnal destabilization and very weak energy in WNW
flow aloft. Activity has been mostly over the high terrain with
the exception of a line of showers/tstms from north of Roundup to
Baker and Ekalaka. A couple storms became briefly severe in Fallon
county earlier this afternoon, and there exists a fairly strong
storm near 3HT as of 230 pm. Latest mesoanalysis shows CAPES
climbing up to 1000-1500 J/KG, with effective bulk shear from
35-45 kts. This is enough for strong to severe storms but forcing
is rather weak and HRRR soundings continue to show some modest
mid level capping, and we are starting to mix some drier air as
dew pts have fallen a bit since midday. SO, could see a strong to
perhaps severe storm over the next few hours but we are not
anticipating widespread severe wx.

Some degree of stabilization should occur in our east tonight as
weak pressure rise builds out of southern Saskatchewan. Could see
a few showers/tstms persist thru the night and into early Thursday
courtesy of PV emerging from ID and an easterly low level jet
nosing as far west as Harlowton and Columbus.

While our far east should remain dry and capped on Thursday, as
sfc ridge settles over the northern plains, convective chances
should increase in our west as next shortwave moves in from the
west. Not a big severe threat but could see a few strong storms in
our west Thursday afternoon with an enhanced easterly wind across
our cwa. Activity will spread east thru the night as a bit
stronger llj affects our eastern zones, with some showers/tstms
possible in our east late Thursday night and Friday morning.

Convective potential may decrease a bit Friday under shortwave
ridging, but moisture and instability will remain in place so
slight pops should suffice across the cwa during the afternoon and
evening.

Temps will remain above normal but not in an extreme sense. Expect
highs in the 80s to lower 90s each of the next couple days.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Saturday a weak shortwave pushes eastward of the area as another
more significant shortwave approaches from the west. Temps will
push into the low to mid 90s on Saturday with westerly and
southerly flow at the surface. Frontal forcing will allow for
areas of chance pops over central Montana for Saturday afternoon
and evening. Slight chance of PoPs will remain over the mountain
areas on Sun and Mon with weak forcing across much of the area.
It is not until later in the week when perhaps a more significant
front will move in which could bring more widespread rain chances.
Overall, temperatures should remain fairly stagnant through the
forecast with upper 80s and low 90s during the day and 50s and 60s
for lows in the valleys and along the Plains. Still hedging a
little warmer than guidance on Wednesday because there remains
uncertainty with position of upper-level disturbance. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Light TSRA currently impacting MLS, and there will be a threat for
VCTS at all sites until evening. Winds will be variable and gusty
in the vicinity of these storms. Expect conditions to remain VFR
with generally easterly winds through the period. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/087 060/091 062/093 061/091 059/090 059/089 058/086
    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 053/084 051/090 052/090 050/088 048/087 048/086 047/083
    33/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 057/088 059/090 059/093 057/092 056/090 055/091 054/087
    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 060/085 062/090 062/093 062/091 060/090 060/089 059/087
    21/B    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    12/T    22/T
4BQ 058/085 060/087 060/094 062/094 060/093 059/094 058/090
    21/B    23/T    22/W    22/T    22/W    11/B    22/W
BHK 054/080 055/083 057/089 058/091 057/089 056/089 056/085
    21/B    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 055/086 055/088 055/092 054/092 053/091 053/091 053/088
    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292036
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
236 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...
An upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest is translating east and
is helping to drive northwest flow aloft across Northeast Montana.
Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave is providing forcing for ascent
allowing a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area
this afternoon into this evening.

As the shortwave ridge pushes over the region, drier weather is
expected later tonight and on Thursday. However, as a relatively
progressive pattern continues, the next shortwave will be
approaching for Thursday night and Friday with additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

Only minor changes for the going forecast. Occasional chances of
thunderstorm during period with the main focus on a cold front
passage Saturday night. Ebert

Previous long term discussion...The general evolution of the
weather pattern for the extended forecast period will feature
increasing zonal flow and southwesterly flow aloft as a slow-
moving low pressure system over the Canadian Rockies gradually
dips southward and repeatedly introduces isolated to scattered
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeast Montana.

The best consensus for accumulating precipitation seems to cluster
across our eastern zones from Saturday evening through Sunday.
Given that this time frame falls within the popular 4th of July
holiday weekend, those with outdoor and recreation plans should
closely follow the evolving threat for thunderstorms. Although for
Monday evening itself, the 4th of July, model consensus calls for
a mainly quiet night for fireworks and other planned outdoor
festivities. This time will continue to be monitored for any
changes in this expected pattern.

Wednesday and beyond, the Canadian Rockies trough will take a more
pronounced and compact dip through our northern Rockies region and
increase chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Tried to reflect this trend but it is out toward the end of the
extended forecast period. Confidence here is average at best.

BMickelson


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail, though an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through this evening. North
winds will become east tonight at 5 to 10 kts. Maliawco



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292036
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
236 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Isolated convection has developed across our cwa this afternoon in
response to diurnal destabilization and very weak energy in WNW
flow aloft. Activity has been mostly over the high terrain with
the exception of a line of showers/tstms from north of Roundup to
Baker and Ekalaka. A couple storms became briefly severe in Fallon
county earlier this afternoon, and there exists a fairly strong
storm near 3HT as of 230 pm. Latest mesoanalysis shows CAPES
climbing up to 1000-1500 J/KG, with effective bulk shear from
35-45 kts. This is enough for strong to severe storms but forcing
is rather weak and HRRR soundings continue to show some modest
mid level capping, and we are starting to mix some drier air as
dew pts have fallen a bit since midday. SO, could see a strong to
perhaps severe storm over the next few hours but we are not
anticipating widespread severe wx.

Some degree of stabilization should occur in our east tonight as
weak pressure rise builds out of southern Saskatchewan. Could see
a few showers/tstms persist thru the night and into early Thursday
courtesy of PV emerging from ID and an easterly low level jet
nosing as far west as Harlowton and Columbus.

While our far east should remain dry and capped on Thursday, as
sfc ridge settles over the northern plains, convective chances
should increase in our west as next shortwave moves in from the
west. Not a big severe threat but could see a few strong storms in
our west Thursday afternoon with an enhanced easterly wind across
our cwa. Activity will spread east thru the night as a bit
stronger llj affects our eastern zones, with some showers/tstms
possible in our east late Thursday night and Friday morning.

Convective potential may decrease a bit Friday under shortwave
ridging, but moisture and instability will remain in place so
slight pops should suffice across the cwa during the afternoon and
evening.

Temps will remain above normal but not in an extreme sense. Expect
highs in the 80s to lower 90s each of the next couple days.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Saturday a weak shortwave pushes eastward of the area as another
more significant shortwave approaches from the west. Temps will
push into the low to mid 90s on Saturday with westerly and
southerly flow at the surface. Frontal forcing will allow for
areas of chance pops over central Montana for Saturday afternoon
and evening. Slight chance of PoPs will remain over the mountain
areas on Sun and Mon with weak forcing across much of the area.
It is not until later in the week when perhaps a more significant
front will move in which could bring more widespread rain chances.
Overall, temperatures should remain fairly stagnant through the
forecast with upper 80s and low 90s during the day and 50s and 60s
for lows in the valleys and along the Plains. Still hedging a
little warmer than guidance on Wednesday because there remains
uncertainty with position of upper-level disturbance. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Light TSRA currently impacting MLS, and there will be a threat for
VCTS at all sites until evening. Winds will be variable and gusty
in the vicinity of these storms. Expect conditions to remain VFR
with generally easterly winds through the period. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/087 060/091 062/093 061/091 059/090 059/089 058/086
    22/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 053/084 051/090 052/090 050/088 048/087 048/086 047/083
    33/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 057/088 059/090 059/093 057/092 056/090 055/091 054/087
    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 060/085 062/090 062/093 062/091 060/090 060/089 059/087
    21/B    22/T    22/T    32/T    22/W    12/T    22/T
4BQ 058/085 060/087 060/094 062/094 060/093 059/094 058/090
    21/B    23/T    22/W    22/T    22/W    11/B    22/W
BHK 054/080 055/083 057/089 058/091 057/089 056/089 056/085
    21/B    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 055/086 055/088 055/092 054/092 053/091 053/091 053/088
    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292036
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
236 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...
An upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest is translating east and
is helping to drive northwest flow aloft across Northeast Montana.
Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave is providing forcing for ascent
allowing a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area
this afternoon into this evening.

As the shortwave ridge pushes over the region, drier weather is
expected later tonight and on Thursday. However, as a relatively
progressive pattern continues, the next shortwave will be
approaching for Thursday night and Friday with additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

Only minor changes for the going forecast. Occasional chances of
thunderstorm during period with the main focus on a cold front
passage Saturday night. Ebert

Previous long term discussion...The general evolution of the
weather pattern for the extended forecast period will feature
increasing zonal flow and southwesterly flow aloft as a slow-
moving low pressure system over the Canadian Rockies gradually
dips southward and repeatedly introduces isolated to scattered
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeast Montana.

The best consensus for accumulating precipitation seems to cluster
across our eastern zones from Saturday evening through Sunday.
Given that this time frame falls within the popular 4th of July
holiday weekend, those with outdoor and recreation plans should
closely follow the evolving threat for thunderstorms. Although for
Monday evening itself, the 4th of July, model consensus calls for
a mainly quiet night for fireworks and other planned outdoor
festivities. This time will continue to be monitored for any
changes in this expected pattern.

Wednesday and beyond, the Canadian Rockies trough will take a more
pronounced and compact dip through our northern Rockies region and
increase chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Tried to reflect this trend but it is out toward the end of the
extended forecast period. Confidence here is average at best.

BMickelson


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail, though an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through this evening. North
winds will become east tonight at 5 to 10 kts. Maliawco



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




000
FXUS65 KMSO 292035
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
235 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...A ridge is keeping showers and thunderstorms capped
across most of the region west of Highway 93, but east of Highway
93 some towering cumulus can be seen on area web cams, which
matches well with short term model forecasts for some isolated
thunderstorms later this evening. Most of the storms will initiate
near the Continental Divide and in southwest Montana and move
east. There is also a slight chance for a storm to form in the
southern Bitterroot mountains of Montana and move east across the
valley and the Sapphire Mountains tonight.

Tomorrow an approaching trough from the Gulf of Alaska will cause
the ridge to start to flatten out, allowing more thunderstorms in
the Bitterroot and west of Highway 93. Very little is expected in
the mountains of central Idaho, and there is only a very slight
chance of storms Thursday in the Orofino, Kooskia, Grangeville,
and south of Grangeville along Highway 95.

Friday will be warm, dry, and breezy. A drier air mass moves into
the region in the warm sector ahead of an approaching, mostly dry
cold front for Friday night. The main impact of the trough and
cold front on Friday will be dry breezy conditions to start off
the 4th of July weekend.

For July 4th weekend, the dry breezy conditions are expected to
continue. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon, but overall the weather should be mostly dry. Breezy
winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected during the afternoon and
combined with the recent dry weather, increased fire danger is
expected over the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal with
highs in the 80s for most valleys across western Montana and
central Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure continues to dominate, so expect VFR
conditions to continue at area terminals. Convection will cause
some isolated evening thunderstorms, with the possibility for
convection to continue overnight. Terminals KSMN and KBTM are most
likely to be affected by storms. A wildfire in the southern
Bitterroot mountains is causing some smoke in the vicinity of
Hamilton and terminal K6S5.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291756
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1150 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows the small area of showers and
thunderstorms that were over Hill/Blaine counties earlier this
morning are exiting into Phillips County, with mostly clear skies
over the rest of central/southwest MT. So have removed any
mention of precip for remainder of the morning in our forecast
area. Still expecting isolated thunderstorms to develop again this
aftn/eve, mainly along the Rocky Mtn Front and over the central
and Hiline counties. One or two cells may become strong, producing
small hail and outflow winds gusting around 40-45 mph. Highs will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.

Westerly flow aloft with weak embedded disturbances will persist
over the region today. Scattered clouds are already developing over
local mountain ranges and will continue this aftn with isolated
-TSRA developing in some areas. Also expect thunderstorms to move
south-southeast out of Alberta and track toward KCTB/KHVR this
evening. Convective activity should dissipate overnight, but another
weak trough and moisture is forecast to move through southwest MT,
bringing scattered -SHRA vcnty KBZN/KHLN early Thurs morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /

Today through Friday...Little change is expected to the large
scale pattern across the region through the next several days,
featuring a broad upper level ridge over the interior Western US,
which gradually decreases in amplitude through the remainder of
the week as a series of very weak shortwaves originating in both
the Eastern Pacific and Great Basin move through the upper level
ridge. Weak shortwave tracking ESE along the US/Canadian border
early this morning will continue to produce a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the morning period along the Hwy 2
corridor with some additional activity also developing over
eastern portions of central MT. This afternoon, the airmass
becomes moderately unstable again with additional very subtle
shortwave energy moving in from the west. Bulk wind shear values
(0-6km) generally range from 25-35kts across the region so an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out but overall
convection should be non-severe. Showers and thunderstorms will
decrease in coverage tonight, but mid level instability remains
remains high enough for a few showers and thunderstorms to linger
through the night once again. Similar conditions occur again on
Thursday with perhaps slightly more organized weak shortwave
energy across both north central MT originating to the west and SW
MT originating in the Great Basin. This may lead to somewhat
better coverage of afternoon/evening convection Thursday with
again most of being non-severe though a few stronger cells cannot
be ruled out. Friday appears to be mostly dry as little in the
way of shortwave activity is currently forecast to move across the
region until Friday evening, though daytime heating/instability
will maintain a small threat for afternoon thunderstorms across
the mtns. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees above
seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  55  85  56 /  10  20  20  20
CTB  82  50  81  51 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  90  59  87  58 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  90  52  86  52 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  81  44  74  44 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  89  53  84  52 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  85  54  83  55 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  83  53  82  54 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291559
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
959 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Weak shortwave moving into eastern MT continues to produce a few
showers and t-storms from Rosebud County eastward as of 940 am.
Have adjusted morning pops to account for this eastward shift.
Latest day 1 outlook of a marginal risk seems on track as CAPES
expected to increase to near 1200 J/kg with near 40 kts of
effective Bulk shear before the wave exits. We could see some
stabilization from the north behind the shortwave by around
00z...so it appears a short window of opportunity for a strong
storm to develop today. Greater chance of severe storms will be
near the Black Hills and southward.

The 14Z HRRR run suggests some strong convection developing over
our NW off the Belts/Snowies by 17Z then tracking to the SE during
the early to mid afternoon. This seems overdone as current
pressure rises and reinforced NE sfc winds result in some mid
level capping as shown on HRRR soundings...as well as the GFS/NAM.
Something to watch over the coming hours.

Current forecast of isolated to scattered pops for the day looks
good, with highest values in our south. High temps today will be
in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Very little change in the weather pattern for the next couple of
days. We will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day. High pressure ridging will continue today into
Wednesday. Several weak disturbances under this ridge, mainly over
the Great Basin area, will drift north then east across south
central Montana. Hi Res models have not been handling these subtle
features well the past 24 hours.

Currently, a cluster of thunderstorms is moving across the
northern portions of the state, as well as new development just
across the border into the Dakotas. In addition, some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
Musselshell, Treasure and northeast Yellowstone Counties the past
hour with movement southeast. As a result, we have placed a slight
pop chance across the entire forecast area for this morning.
Slightly better chances will be possible this afternoon and
evening especially over the mountains and adjacent foothills. CAPE
values and shear are not too strong today so severe thunderstorms
are not expected. However, SPC has placed a slight severe risk
across portions of northeast Wyoming so we can`t rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm along the Montana/Wyoming border
this afternoon into this evening.

Status-quo weather pattern will continue tonight into Thursday
with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm at any time but the
best timing would be afternoon/evening. Highs both days will be
above normal with readings mainly in the middle to upper 80s.
Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

A few days ago the extended range progs were trying to drop an
upper low into the Pacific NW this weekend. Overall model
solutions have trended closest to the ECMWF, and now have the
trough/short wave track across canada. This will tend to flatten
out the ridge across the northern Rockies for the holiday weekend.
This will mean lower 500mb heights, but to balance this out the
easterly surface winds which have prevailed for the last several
weeks will be less dominant. This is especially true in our
western zones. So temperatures will remain upper 80s to lower 90s.
There does not appear to be any decent dynamic forces to affect
our region over the weekend. Thus, no focus for good thunderstorm
development. We expect basically isolated convection.

For next week, the GFS and EC are at odds as to the possibility
of a modest cool off. We will stay middle of the road for now. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers currently ongoing across southeast Montana should
diminish by late morning. VCTS threat is possible after 18z at
all sites. Aside from thunderstorm potential, conditions will
remain VFR through the period with light easterly winds. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 061/088 061/092 062/093 061/092 058/090 058/089
    3/T 22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 088 054/085 053/091 051/090 050/089 048/087 047/087
    3/T 33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 090 058/089 058/092 058/093 057/093 055/090 055/090
    3/T 22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B
MLS 090 061/087 063/090 062/094 062/092 059/089 059/089
    2/T 21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 089 060/086 060/089 060/095 062/095 059/092 059/094
    3/T 22/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    11/B
BHK 085 056/080 055/085 057/090 059/092 057/088 055/088
    2/T 21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 087 057/085 054/088 053/092 054/093 052/090 053/091
    3/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KGGW 291549
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
949 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Fri...
Update...

Isolated showers continue to track southeast across the Fort Peck
Lake area this morning. Pops were updated to reflect radar
observations and near term expectations. Expect isolated showers
and thunderstorms to develop later on this afternoon as well.
Better chances exist south of Glendive toward Terry and Wibaux via
the SPC SSEO maximum updraft product. Otherwise it will be mostly
sunny and dry much of the time with highs topping out into the 80
to 85 degree range. Maliawco

Previous Discussion...

Northwest flow will keep things somewhat unsettled across the
area over the period. A wave currently over SW Saskatchewan has a
band of showers and thunderstorms extending as far south as
Southern Phillips County at 09z. This wave will continue to move
southeast across the forecast area this morning taking the
precipitation with it.

A stronger wave dives south across Manitoba and Saskatchewan
today. The system will bring a back door cold front across
Northeast Montana this afternoon. While the main thunderstorm
activity is expected to stay to the north, enough instability is
expected to be over the forecast area for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

A shortwave ridge and high pressure will allow for dry weather
over most of the area late tonight and Thursday morning.

The next shortwave trough moves through the area Thursday Night
and Friday with a chance of thunderstorms. Forrester


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

The general evolution of the weather pattern for the extended
forecast period will feature increasing zonal flow and
southwesterly flow aloft as a slow-moving low pressure system over
the Canadian Rockies gradually dips southward and repeatedly
introduces isolated to scattered chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms across portions of northeast Montana.

The best consensus for accumulating precipitation seems to cluster
across our eastern zones from Saturday evening through Sunday.
Given that this time frame falls within the popular 4th of July
holiday weekend, those with outdoor and recreation plans should
closely follow the evolving threat for thunderstorms. Although for
Monday evening itself, the 4th of July, model consensus calls for
a mainly quiet night for fireworks and other planned outdoor
festivities. This time will continue to be monitored for any
changes in this expected pattern.

Wednesday and beyond, the Canadian Rockies trough will take a more
pronounced and compact dip through our northern Rockies region and
increase chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Tried to reflect this trend but it is out toward the end of the
extended forecast period. Confidence here is average at best.

BMickelson

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail, though an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today. Winds will remain north at
5 to 10 kts. Maliawco



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291514
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
914 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows the small area of showers and
thunderstorms that were over Hill/Blaine counties earlier this
morning are exiting into Phillips County, with mostly clear skies
over the rest of central/southwest MT. So have removed any
mention of precip for remainder of the morning in our forecast
area. Still expecting isolated thunderstorms to develop again this
aftn/eve, mainly along the Rocky Mtn Front and over the central
and Hiline counties. One or two cells may become strong, producing
small hail and outflow winds gusting around 40-45 mph. Highs will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1123Z.

Westerly flow aloft with weak embedded disturbances will persist
over the region today. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will
linger this morning across eastern portions of N-Central MT,
primarily impacting the KHVR and potentially the KLWT terminals with
very brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms redeveloping late
this afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /

Today through Friday...Little change is expected to the large
scale pattern across the region through the next several days,
featuring a broad upper level ridge over the interior Western US,
which gradually decreases in amplitude through the remainder of
the week as a series of very weak shortwaves originating in both
the Eastern Pacific and Great Basin move through the upper level
ridge. Weak shortwave tracking ESE along the US/Canadian border
early this morning will continue to produce a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the morning period along the Hwy 2
corridor with some additional activity also developing over
eastern portions of central MT. This afternoon, the airmass
becomes moderately unstable again with additional very subtle
shortwave energy moving in from the west. Bulk wind shear values
(0-6km) generally range from 25-35kts across the region so an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out but overall
convection should be non-severe. Showers and thunderstorms will
decrease in coverage tonight, but mid level instability remains
remains high enough for a few showers and thunderstorms to linger
through the night once again. Similar conditions occur again on
Thursday with perhaps slightly more organized weak shortwave
energy across both north central MT originating to the west and SW
MT originating in the Great Basin. This may lead to somewhat
better coverage of afternoon/evening convection Thursday with
again most of being non-severe though a few stronger cells cannot
be ruled out. Friday appears to be mostly dry as little in the
way of shortwave activity is currently forecast to move across the
region until Friday evening, though daytime heating/instability
will maintain a small threat for afternoon thunderstorms across
the mtns. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees above
seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  55  85  56 /  10  20  20  20
CTB  82  50  81  51 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  90  59  87  58 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  90  52  86  52 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  81  44  74  44 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  89  53  84  52 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  85  54  83  55 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  83  53  82  54 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291123
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
523 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Little change is expected to the large
scale pattern across the region through the next several days,
featuring a broad upper level ridge over the interior Western US,
which gradually decreases in amplitude through the remainder of
the week as a series of very weak shortwaves originating in both
the Eastern Pacific and Great Basin move through the upper level
ridge. Weak shortwave tracking ESE along the US/Canadian border
early this morning will continue to produce a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the morning period along the Hwy 2
corridor with some additional activity also developing over
eastern portions of central MT. This afternoon, the airmass
becomes moderately unstable again with additional very subtle
shortwave energy moving in from the west. Bulk wind shear values
(0-6km) generally range from 25-35kts across the region so an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out but overall
convection should be non-severe. Showers and thunderstorms will
decrease in coverage tonight, but mid level instability remains
remains high enough for a few showers and thunderstorms to linger
through the night once again. Similar conditions occur again on
Thursday with perhaps slightly more organized weak shortwave
energy across both north central MT originating to the west and SW
MT originating in the Great Basin. This may lead to somewhat
better coverage of afternoon/evening convection Thursday with
again most of being non-severe though a few stronger cells cannot
be ruled out. Friday appears to be mostly dry as little in the
way of shortwave activity is currently forecast to move across the
region until Friday evening, though daytime heating/instability
will maintain a small threat for afternoon thunderstorms across
the mtns. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees above
seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1123Z.

Westerly flow aloft with weak embedded disturbances will persist
over the region today. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will
linger this morning across eastern portions of N-Central MT,
primarily impacting the KHVR and potentially the KLWT terminals with
very brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms redeveloping late
this afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  55  85  56 /  10  20  20  20
CTB  82  50  81  51 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  90  59  87  58 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  90  52  86  52 /  20  20  20  20
WEY  81  44  74  44 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  89  53  84  52 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  85  54  83  55 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  83  53  82  54 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291123
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
523 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Little change is expected to the large
scale pattern across the region through the next several days,
featuring a broad upper level ridge over the interior Western US,
which gradually decreases in amplitude through the remainder of
the week as a series of very weak shortwaves originating in both
the Eastern Pacific and Great Basin move through the upper level
ridge. Weak shortwave tracking ESE along the US/Canadian border
early this morning will continue to produce a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the morning period along the Hwy 2
corridor with some additional activity also developing over
eastern portions of central MT. This afternoon, the airmass
becomes moderately unstable again with additional very subtle
shortwave energy moving in from the west. Bulk wind shear values
(0-6km) generally range from 25-35kts across the region so an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out but overall
convection should be non-severe. Showers and thunderstorms will
decrease in coverage tonight, but mid level instability remains
remains high enough for a few showers and thunderstorms to linger
through the night once again. Similar conditions occur again on
Thursday with perhaps slightly more organized weak shortwave
energy across both north central MT originating to the west and SW
MT originating in the Great Basin. This may lead to somewhat
better coverage of afternoon/evening convection Thursday with
again most of being non-severe though a few stronger cells cannot
be ruled out. Friday appears to be mostly dry as little in the
way of shortwave activity is currently forecast to move across the
region until Friday evening, though daytime heating/instability
will maintain a small threat for afternoon thunderstorms across
the mtns. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees above
seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1123Z.

Westerly flow aloft with weak embedded disturbances will persist
over the region today. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will
linger this morning across eastern portions of N-Central MT,
primarily impacting the KHVR and potentially the KLWT terminals with
very brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms redeveloping late
this afternoon and evening. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  55  85  56 /  10  20  20  20
CTB  82  50  81  51 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  90  59  87  58 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  90  52  86  52 /  20  20  20  20
WEY  81  44  74  44 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  89  53  84  52 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  85  54  83  55 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  83  53  82  54 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290943
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
343 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Very little change in the weather pattern for the next couple of
days. We will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day. High pressure ridging will continue today into
Wednesday. Several weak disturbances under this ridge, mainly over
the Great Basin area, will drift north then east across south
central Montana. Hi Res models have not been handling these subtle
features well the past 24 hours.

Currently, a cluster of thunderstorms is moving across the
northern portions of the state, as well as new development just
across the border into the Dakotas. In addition, some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
Musselshell, Treasure and northeast Yellowstone Counties the past
hour with movement southeast. As a result, we have placed a slight
pop chance across the entire forecast area for this morning.
Slightly better chances will be possible this afternoon and
evening especially over the mountains and adjacent foothills. CAPE
values and shear are not too strong today so severe thunderstorms
are not expected. However, SPC has placed a slight severe risk
across portions of northeast Wyoming so we can`t rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm along the Montana/Wyoming border
this afternoon into this evening.

Status-quo weather pattern will continue tonight into Thursday
with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm at any time but the
best timing would be afternoon/evening. Highs both days will be
above normal with readings mainly in the middle to upper 80s.
Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

A few days ago the extended range progs were trying to drop an
upper low into the Pacific NW this weekend. Overall model
solutions have trended closest to the ECMWF, and now have the
trough/short wave track across canada. This will tend to flatten
out the ridge across the northern Rockies for the holiday weekend.
This will mean lower 500mb heights, but to balance this out the
easterly surface winds which have prevailed for the last several
weeks will be less dominant. This is especially true in our
western zones. So temperatures will remain upper 80s to lower 90s.
There does not appear to be any decent dynamic forces to affect
our region over the weekend. Thus, no focus for good thunderstorm
development. We expect basically isolated convection.

For next week, the GFS and EC are at odds as to the possibility
of a modest cool off. We will stay middle of the road for now. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm
during the morning across the TAF sites. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are then expected for the afternoon.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions with the stronger thunderstorms.
Otherwise...east to northeasterly surface winds should prevail
across the forecast area with some mid level clouds. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 061/088 061/092 062/093 061/092 058/090 058/089
    3/T 22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 088 054/085 053/091 051/090 050/089 048/087 047/087
    3/T 33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 090 058/089 058/092 058/093 057/093 055/090 055/090
    3/T 22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B
MLS 090 061/087 063/090 062/094 062/092 059/089 059/089
    2/T 21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 089 060/086 060/089 060/095 062/095 059/092 059/094
    3/T 22/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    11/B
BHK 085 056/080 055/085 057/090 059/092 057/088 055/088
    2/T 21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 087 057/085 054/088 053/092 054/093 052/090 053/091
    3/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290939
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
339 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Little change is expected to the large
scale pattern across the region through the next several days,
featuring a broad upper level ridge over the interior Western US,
which gradually decreases in amplitude through the remainder of
the week as a series of very weak shortwaves originating in both
the Eastern Pacific and Great Basin move through the upper level
ridge. Weak shortwave tracking ESE along the US/Canadian border
early this morning will continue to produce a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the morning period along the Hwy 2
corridor with some additional activity also developing over
eastern portions of central MT. This afternoon, the airmass
becomes moderately unstable again with additional very subtle
shortwave energy moving in from the west. Bulk wind shear values
(0-6km) generally range from 25-35kts across the region so an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out but overall
convection should be non-severe. Showers and thunderstorms will
decrease in coverage tonight, but mid level instability remains
remains high enough for a few showers and thunderstorms to linger
through the night once again. Similar conditions occur again on
Thursday with perhaps slightly more organized weak shortwave
energy across both north central MT originating to the west and SW
MT originating in the Great Basin. This may lead to somewhat
better coverage of afternoon/evening convection Thursday with
again most of being non-severe though a few stronger cells cannot
be ruled out. Friday appears to be mostly dry as little in the
way of shortwave activity is currently forecast to move across the
region until Friday evening, though daytime heating/instability
will maintain a small threat for afternoon thunderstorms across
the mtns. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees above
seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Overall, an unsettled westerly
flow will prevail through the period, with a cooler and possibly
wetter system arriving mid-week. A shortwave trough crossing the
Canadian Rockies Friday night will support isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Winds shift to westerly early Saturday as an
associated surface front brings slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. The westerly flow aloft continues to strengthen
Sunday through Tuesday, causing breezy conditions and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, Monday evening
weather for the 4th of July appears dry for most areas but with
westerly surface winds and isolated showers. A stronger, closed
upper level moves across southwest Canada Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures with areas
of rain across portions of the forecast area. Models remain in
fairly close agreement through the period at synoptic scale,
although details in timing and position of smaller scale features
will continue to evolve. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.

VFR conditions are expected to continue at least through the day on
Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms persist late this evening along and
north of a line from KCTB to KHVR. Clouds and thunderstorms will
diminish after 09Z, but daytime heating may cause isolated
thunderstorms to develop once again near the mountains (including
KCTB KLWT KHLN KBZN). PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  55  85  56 /  10  20  20  20
CTB  82  50  81  51 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  90  59  87  58 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  90  52  86  52 /  20  20  20  20
WEY  81  44  74  44 /  20  20  30  20
DLN  89  53  84  52 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  85  54  83  55 /  20  20  20  30
LWT  83  53  82  54 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls




000
FXUS65 KMSO 290917
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
317 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

...Hot Wednesday...
...Breezy and mild holiday weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Today will be another hot day across north central
Idaho and western Montana, with most valleys staying in the 90s
and a few select locations (such as Riggins, ID) hitting the 100
mark. In all likelihood, today will be the hottest day of the
week, though Thursday will only cool by a couple of degrees in
most places. In addition, today will be mostly dry, but Thursday
will see an increased chance at late-day thunderstorms developing
along the terrain across western Montana and south into the
general Salmon River corridor of Idaho. Gusty outflow winds will
be the main impact from storms on Thursday, along with lightning.

Occasional disturbances in southwest flow will set the stage for
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday-Saturday, mainly
across southwest Montana and along the Divide. The main threats from
these thunderstorms will continue to be gusty outflow winds and
dangerous lightning. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above
normal.

A low pressure trough will pass north of the region Sunday into
Monday, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and a few
thunderstorms. Winds will also become noticeably breezy each
afternoon and evening this weekend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure should produce generally clear
conditions today. Today will likely be the hottest day of the
week, with hot temperatures creating high density altitude
impacts. Conditions will remain clear and dry until Thursday
afternoon, when thunderstorms could develop along the Continental
Divide, southwest Montana, and south central Idaho.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 290917
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
317 AM MDT Wed Jun 29 2016

...Hot Wednesday...
...Breezy and mild holiday weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Today will be another hot day across north central
Idaho and western Montana, with most valleys staying in the 90s
and a few select locations (such as Riggins, ID) hitting the 100
mark. In all likelihood, today will be the hottest day of the
week, though Thursday will only cool by a couple of degrees in
most places. In addition, today will be mostly dry, but Thursday
will see an increased chance at late-day thunderstorms developing
along the terrain across western Montana and south into the
general Salmon River corridor of Idaho. Gusty outflow winds will
be the main impact from storms on Thursday, along with lightning.

Occasional disturbances in southwest flow will set the stage for
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday-Saturday, mainly
across southwest Montana and along the Divide. The main threats from
these thunderstorms will continue to be gusty outflow winds and
dangerous lightning. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above
normal.

A low pressure trough will pass north of the region Sunday into
Monday, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and a few
thunderstorms. Winds will also become noticeably breezy each
afternoon and evening this weekend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure should produce generally clear
conditions today. Today will likely be the hottest day of the
week, with hot temperatures creating high density altitude
impacts. Conditions will remain clear and dry until Thursday
afternoon, when thunderstorms could develop along the Continental
Divide, southwest Montana, and south central Idaho.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 290854
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
254 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Fri...

Northwest flow will keep things somewhat unsettled across the
area over the period. A wave currently over SW Saskatchewan has a
band of showers and thunderstorms extending as far south as
Southern Phillips County at 09z. This wave will continue to move
southeast across the forecast area this morning taking the
precipitation with it.

A stronger wave dives south across Manitoba and Saskatchewan
today. The system will bring a back door cold front across
Northeast Montana this afternoon. While the main thunderstorm
activity is expected to stay to the north, enough instability is
expected to be over the forecast area for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

A shortwave ridge and high pressure will allow for dry weather
over most of the area late tonight and Thursday morning.

The next shortwave trough moves through the area Thursday Night
and Friday with a chance of thunderstorms. Forrester


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

The general evolution of the weather pattern for the extended
forecast period will feature increasing zonal flow and
southwesterly flow aloft as a slow-moving low pressure system over
the Canadian Rockies gradually dips southward and repeatedly
introduces isolated to scattered chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms across portions of northeast Montana.

The best consensus for accumulating precipitation seems to cluster
across our eastern zones from Saturday evening through Sunday.
Given that this time frame falls within the popular 4th of July
holiday weekend, those with outdoor and recreation plans should
closely follow the evolving threat for thunderstorms. Although for
Monday evening itself, the 4th of July, model consensus calls for
a mainly quiet night for fireworks and other planned outdoor
festivities. This time will continue to be monitored for any
changes in this expected pattern.

Wednesday and beyond, the Canadian Rockies trough will take a more
pronounced and compact dip through our northern Rockies region and
increase chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Tried to reflect this trend but it is out toward the end of the
extended forecast period. Confidence here is average at best.

BMickelson

&&

.AVIATION...

As a lingering area of rain showers and a few thunderstorms slowly
drift from WNW to ESE through portions of northeast Montana, VCSH
will be possible for KGGW and KOLF through the morning hours, but
these showers could also gradually evaporate as they go. For now,
will probably amend these two sites for these showers. Otherwise,
expect TAF site to remain in VFR conditions with mainly light and
variable winds.

BMickelson

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow




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