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000
FXUS65 KTFX 301728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled for southern Gallatin
County including the West Yellowstone area as the fog has dissipated.

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period but ISOLD/SCT
SHRA and TS are forecast this afternoon and evening over the
mountains. Slight chance for a shower or storm to move close to KHLN
and KCTB, so mentioned VCTS between 22z-03z with main threat being
gusty erratic outflow winds. However, CB will mainly be anchored over
the higher terrain through the day. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled for southern Gallatin
County including the West Yellowstone area as the fog has dissipated.

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1727Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period but ISOLD/SCT
SHRA and TS are forecast this afternoon and evening over the
mountains. Slight chance for a shower or storm to move close to KHLN
and KCTB, so mentioned VCTS between 22z-03z with main threat being
gusty erratic outflow winds. However, CB will mainly be anchored over
the higher terrain through the day. Uttech

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301619
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1019 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery shows the large mid-level ridge
over the Western U.S...with little cloud cover across Montana.
Some thicker more convective-looking clouds exist over eastern
Washington and Oregon and much of western Idaho which are associated
with a very weak vorticity max. This disturbance will slide ENE
through the day; however, thinking skies will remain mostly clear
across the lower elevations through much of the afternoon. Raised
high temps across the lower elevations into the mid to upper 90s.
Also, raised shower and t`storm changes over mountainous areas
with the highest values up near 60 percent southwest of Helena.
Organized convection is not anticipated but strong solar
insolation will lead appreciable SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. PW is up
around 0.80 inches over the Rocky Mountain Front so better chance
for wetter storms in that region compared to the much drier
Southwest. Uttech

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  96  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  94  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  95  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  91  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  81  42  76  42 /  30  30  40  30
DLN  87  53  84  53 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  99  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  91  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 301512
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
912 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WITH NO BIG CHANGES. UPPER
RIDGE STILL IMPACTING THE AREA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
SOME SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...SO LEFT
POPS ALONE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. BARNWELL

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S IN MOST
AREAS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE
TIME. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT THAT COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NINTH WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PLACES THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE RIDGE LARGELY IN PLACE...DO EXPECT CONTINUED SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ENHANCED MONSOONAL FETCH OF MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES IS FAVORABLE. FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS IMPROVES WITH REGARD TO THESE DETAILS. THESE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO KNOW DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES TO A FINISH
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL REACH THE 80S. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 301512
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
912 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WITH NO BIG CHANGES. UPPER
RIDGE STILL IMPACTING THE AREA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
SOME SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...SO LEFT
POPS ALONE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. BARNWELL

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S IN MOST
AREAS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE
TIME. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT THAT COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NINTH WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PLACES THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE RIDGE LARGELY IN PLACE...DO EXPECT CONTINUED SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ENHANCED MONSOONAL FETCH OF MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES IS FAVORABLE. FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS IMPROVES WITH REGARD TO THESE DETAILS. THESE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO KNOW DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES TO A FINISH
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL REACH THE 80S. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301501
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY. PWATS ARE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH VALUES CLOSER TO A HALF INCH...AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION. LOOK FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS LATER TODAY PER WEAK ENERGY AND GREATER
MOISTURE IN IDAHO AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BUT OTHERWISE WE WILL BE
DRY TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SOUTH A BIT AGAIN...SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGE. SOME OF THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK NORTH THURSDAY FOR A LITTLE WIDER
COVERAGE WITH THE CRAZIES AND PERHAPS THE BIG HORNS SEEING SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMP WARM ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN...BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS SHORTWAVE RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION . UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION MAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST AREA OF IMPACT
OR TIMING...RESULTING IN MORE BROADBRUSH TYPE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
COOLER TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE
WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/091 061/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 088 055/089 056/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    1/U 12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 091 057/093 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 091 061/093 062/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 089 058/091 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 086 055/089 056/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 086 054/088 055/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301501
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY. PWATS ARE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH VALUES CLOSER TO A HALF INCH...AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION. LOOK FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS LATER TODAY PER WEAK ENERGY AND GREATER
MOISTURE IN IDAHO AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BUT OTHERWISE WE WILL BE
DRY TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SOUTH A BIT AGAIN...SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGE. SOME OF THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK NORTH THURSDAY FOR A LITTLE WIDER
COVERAGE WITH THE CRAZIES AND PERHAPS THE BIG HORNS SEEING SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMP WARM ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN...BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS SHORTWAVE RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION . UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION MAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST AREA OF IMPACT
OR TIMING...RESULTING IN MORE BROADBRUSH TYPE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
COOLER TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE
WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/091 061/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 088 055/089 056/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    1/U 12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 091 057/093 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 091 061/093 062/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 089 058/091 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 086 055/089 056/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 086 054/088 055/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 301149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Dense fog is occurring in West Yellowstone this morning, however it
is very localized and thus, do not expect fog to affect KBZN.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening in the mountains along the Continental Divide and southwest
Montana. Though a thunderstorm near KBZN or KHLN cannot be ruled
out, confidence is low so did not include in the TAF. Winds will
remain light and southeasterly and some mountain obscuration is
possible today. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 300958
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...After a very hot day across the Northern Rockies on
Tuesday, today should be nearly as warm. Once again late this
afternoon, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop across
southwest Montana and central Idaho. The biggest threat from
storms will be plentiful lightning, gusty winds, and brief, heavy
downpours. Considering that storms that develop today will likely
move very slowly, rainfall that occurs over recent wildfire burn
scarred terrain could result in localized flash flooding. However,
the threat for flooding is fairly low. This same threat will exist
almost every afternoon as we head into the weekend. Those with
recreational activities planned outdoors should have a plan for
lightning, as even the weakest of storms can contain deadly
lightning.

One interesting feature in the forecast is a heightened surge of
moisture beneath the ridge of high pressure during the Thursday-
Friday time frame. The moisture surge is in response to the remnant
of a tropical storm system being drawn beneath the high pressure.
Previous model runs had maintained a distinct shortwave trough
feature with this system, however the latest model consensus has
focused more on just the moisture in the absence of any storm
features. The surge will be of particular interest because of the
impact of heavy rainfall that may result from such a surge
episode. This is definitely a low-certainty, yet high-impact part
of the forecast.

Aside from the tropical moisture surge, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the weekend and
continue into early next week. The focus of storms will remain
during each afternoon and evenings following mostly stable and
pleasant morning conditions. Continued warm temperatures should
also be expected through early next week, with values remaining
at, or slightly above, normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will once again be very similar to that of the day
before: afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be a threat to
mostly KSMN and KBTM between 30/2000Z and 31/0200Z. Breezy north
winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this afternoon as well.
Conditions will clear out after sunset with winds diminishing
area-wide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 10 PM MDT /9
     PM PDT/ this evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

Allegretto/Zumpfe
Aviation...Allegretto

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter!
https://www.facebook.com/NWSMissoula
https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula










000
FXUS65 KMSO 300958
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...After a very hot day across the Northern Rockies on
Tuesday, today should be nearly as warm. Once again late this
afternoon, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop across
southwest Montana and central Idaho. The biggest threat from
storms will be plentiful lightning, gusty winds, and brief, heavy
downpours. Considering that storms that develop today will likely
move very slowly, rainfall that occurs over recent wildfire burn
scarred terrain could result in localized flash flooding. However,
the threat for flooding is fairly low. This same threat will exist
almost every afternoon as we head into the weekend. Those with
recreational activities planned outdoors should have a plan for
lightning, as even the weakest of storms can contain deadly
lightning.

One interesting feature in the forecast is a heightened surge of
moisture beneath the ridge of high pressure during the Thursday-
Friday time frame. The moisture surge is in response to the remnant
of a tropical storm system being drawn beneath the high pressure.
Previous model runs had maintained a distinct shortwave trough
feature with this system, however the latest model consensus has
focused more on just the moisture in the absence of any storm
features. The surge will be of particular interest because of the
impact of heavy rainfall that may result from such a surge
episode. This is definitely a low-certainty, yet high-impact part
of the forecast.

Aside from the tropical moisture surge, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the weekend and
continue into early next week. The focus of storms will remain
during each afternoon and evenings following mostly stable and
pleasant morning conditions. Continued warm temperatures should
also be expected through early next week, with values remaining
at, or slightly above, normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will once again be very similar to that of the day
before: afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be a threat to
mostly KSMN and KBTM between 30/2000Z and 31/0200Z. Breezy north
winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this afternoon as well.
Conditions will clear out after sunset with winds diminishing
area-wide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 10 PM MDT /9
     PM PDT/ this evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

Allegretto/Zumpfe
Aviation...Allegretto

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter!
https://www.facebook.com/NWSMissoula
https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula










000
FXUS65 KMSO 300958
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...After a very hot day across the Northern Rockies on
Tuesday, today should be nearly as warm. Once again late this
afternoon, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop across
southwest Montana and central Idaho. The biggest threat from
storms will be plentiful lightning, gusty winds, and brief, heavy
downpours. Considering that storms that develop today will likely
move very slowly, rainfall that occurs over recent wildfire burn
scarred terrain could result in localized flash flooding. However,
the threat for flooding is fairly low. This same threat will exist
almost every afternoon as we head into the weekend. Those with
recreational activities planned outdoors should have a plan for
lightning, as even the weakest of storms can contain deadly
lightning.

One interesting feature in the forecast is a heightened surge of
moisture beneath the ridge of high pressure during the Thursday-
Friday time frame. The moisture surge is in response to the remnant
of a tropical storm system being drawn beneath the high pressure.
Previous model runs had maintained a distinct shortwave trough
feature with this system, however the latest model consensus has
focused more on just the moisture in the absence of any storm
features. The surge will be of particular interest because of the
impact of heavy rainfall that may result from such a surge
episode. This is definitely a low-certainty, yet high-impact part
of the forecast.

Aside from the tropical moisture surge, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the weekend and
continue into early next week. The focus of storms will remain
during each afternoon and evenings following mostly stable and
pleasant morning conditions. Continued warm temperatures should
also be expected through early next week, with values remaining
at, or slightly above, normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will once again be very similar to that of the day
before: afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be a threat to
mostly KSMN and KBTM between 30/2000Z and 31/0200Z. Breezy north
winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this afternoon as well.
Conditions will clear out after sunset with winds diminishing
area-wide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 10 PM MDT /9
     PM PDT/ this evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

Allegretto/Zumpfe
Aviation...Allegretto

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 300958
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...After a very hot day across the Northern Rockies on
Tuesday, today should be nearly as warm. Once again late this
afternoon, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop across
southwest Montana and central Idaho. The biggest threat from
storms will be plentiful lightning, gusty winds, and brief, heavy
downpours. Considering that storms that develop today will likely
move very slowly, rainfall that occurs over recent wildfire burn
scarred terrain could result in localized flash flooding. However,
the threat for flooding is fairly low. This same threat will exist
almost every afternoon as we head into the weekend. Those with
recreational activities planned outdoors should have a plan for
lightning, as even the weakest of storms can contain deadly
lightning.

One interesting feature in the forecast is a heightened surge of
moisture beneath the ridge of high pressure during the Thursday-
Friday time frame. The moisture surge is in response to the remnant
of a tropical storm system being drawn beneath the high pressure.
Previous model runs had maintained a distinct shortwave trough
feature with this system, however the latest model consensus has
focused more on just the moisture in the absence of any storm
features. The surge will be of particular interest because of the
impact of heavy rainfall that may result from such a surge
episode. This is definitely a low-certainty, yet high-impact part
of the forecast.

Aside from the tropical moisture surge, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the weekend and
continue into early next week. The focus of storms will remain
during each afternoon and evenings following mostly stable and
pleasant morning conditions. Continued warm temperatures should
also be expected through early next week, with values remaining
at, or slightly above, normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will once again be very similar to that of the day
before: afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be a threat to
mostly KSMN and KBTM between 30/2000Z and 31/0200Z. Breezy north
winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this afternoon as well.
Conditions will clear out after sunset with winds diminishing
area-wide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today to 10 PM MDT /9
     PM PDT/ this evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

Allegretto/Zumpfe
Aviation...Allegretto

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 300936
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300936
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300912
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SOUTH A BIT AGAIN...SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGE. SOME OF THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK NORTH THURSDAY FOR A LITTLE WIDER
COVERAGE WITH THE CRAZIES AND PERHAPS THE BIG HORNS SEEING SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMP WARM ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN...BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS SHORTWAVE RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION . UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION MAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST AREA OF IMPACT
OR TIMING...RESULTING IN MORE BROADBRUSH TYPE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
COOLER TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. AAG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 061/091 061/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 087 055/089 056/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    1/U 12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 091 057/093 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 090 061/093 062/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 088 058/091 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 086 055/089 056/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 086 054/088 055/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300912
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SOUTH A BIT AGAIN...SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGE. SOME OF THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK NORTH THURSDAY FOR A LITTLE WIDER
COVERAGE WITH THE CRAZIES AND PERHAPS THE BIG HORNS SEEING SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMP WARM ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN...BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS SHORTWAVE RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION . UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION MAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST AREA OF IMPACT
OR TIMING...RESULTING IN MORE BROADBRUSH TYPE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
COOLER TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. AAG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 061/091 061/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 087 055/089 056/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    1/U 12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 091 057/093 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 090 061/093 062/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 088 058/091 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 086 055/089 056/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 086 054/088 055/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300912
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SOUTH A BIT AGAIN...SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGE. SOME OF THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK NORTH THURSDAY FOR A LITTLE WIDER
COVERAGE WITH THE CRAZIES AND PERHAPS THE BIG HORNS SEEING SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMP WARM ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN...BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS SHORTWAVE RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION . UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION MAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST AREA OF IMPACT
OR TIMING...RESULTING IN MORE BROADBRUSH TYPE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
COOLER TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. AAG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 061/091 061/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 087 055/089 056/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    1/U 12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 091 057/093 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 090 061/093 062/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 088 058/091 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 086 055/089 056/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 086 054/088 055/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300912
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SOUTH A BIT AGAIN...SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGE. SOME OF THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK NORTH THURSDAY FOR A LITTLE WIDER
COVERAGE WITH THE CRAZIES AND PERHAPS THE BIG HORNS SEEING SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMP WARM ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN...BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS SHORTWAVE RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION . UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION MAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST AREA OF IMPACT
OR TIMING...RESULTING IN MORE BROADBRUSH TYPE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
COOLER TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. AAG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 061/091 061/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 087 055/089 056/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    1/U 12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 091 057/093 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 090 061/093 062/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 088 058/091 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 086 055/089 056/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 086 054/088 055/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300818
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT
THAT COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY
COULD BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NINTH WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PLACES THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE RIDGE LARGELY IN PLACE...DO EXPECT CONTINUED SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ENHANCED MONSOONAL FETCH OF MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES IS FAVORABLE. FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS IMPROVES WITH REGARD TO THESE DETAILS. THESE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO KNOW DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES TO A FINISH
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL REACH THE 80S. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. PREVAILING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300818
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT
THAT COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST ZONES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY
COULD BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NINTH WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PLACES THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE RIDGE LARGELY IN PLACE...DO EXPECT CONTINUED SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ENHANCED MONSOONAL FETCH OF MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES IS FAVORABLE. FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS IMPROVES WITH REGARD TO THESE DETAILS. THESE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO KNOW DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES TO A FINISH
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL REACH THE 80S. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. PREVAILING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300504
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 300504
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 300332
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Very isolated areas of showers and a weak thunderstorms or two,
mainly over parts of southwest MT, continue to steadily dissipate.
Should see the remaining convective activity end by midnight, though
a few weak showers may linger over the MT/ID border south of Dillon
into the wee hours of Wed. Overnight low temperatures (mid-50s to
around 60 at lower elevations) will be a few degrees above normal
again tonight as the stationary high pressure ridge keeps the warm
airmass in place across the region.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300239
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
839 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA AND HAS HELPED IN SETTING OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. WEAK FORCING ALSO BEING PROVIDED
BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS BRINING UPSLOPE FLOW. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IS BEING SUPPRESS SOUTHWARD BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE PLAINS HAVE ENDED. HAVE REMOVED
POPS OVER THE PLAINS FOR TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. ISOLD
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MTNS
OVER THE PAST HOUR...IN A LOW SHEAR MONSOONAL REGIME...BUT
OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION AND MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NW. NOTE DEWPTS WHICH HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID 40S AT MILES CITY
AND BAKER AT 2 PM. A LONE WEAK CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW POWDER
RIVER COUNTY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT DO MUCH. FOR THE EARLY EVENING
WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD POPS OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTH...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL LOW TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES DOMINATED BY MONSOONAL
FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOWER COVERAGE THAN TODAY AS PWATS FALL
TO VALUES CLOSER TO A HALF INCH...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM OVER THE MTNS. PWATS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY SO EXPECT ISOLD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF MOISTURE FROM POST-
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE BAJA COAST...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GIVE A
BOOST TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR OUR SW MTNS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT ANY TSTMS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND WEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F TOMORROW AND
INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BETWEEN FRI AND TUE CONCURRENT WITH THE LARGE-
SCALE /ALBEIT GRADUAL/ DE-AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48.
WE EXPECT A SLOW UPTICK IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY WITH THIS TRANSITION OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ENHANCED PUSHES
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE TIMING OF THOSE FEATURES IS NOT A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE ITEM...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY AGREE THAT
A BETTER SHORTWAVE MAY ARRIVE BY MON AND TUE...SO WE CHOSE TO SHOW
A BIT HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHS MAY COOL SOME ON
MON AND TUE IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITION
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z...ALTHOUGH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/089 062/091 062/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 052/087 053/090 055/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 056/091 057/092 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 059/090 061/092 063/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 056/088 058/090 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 053/086 055/088 057/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 053/087 053/089 054/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300239
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
839 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE AREA AND HAS HELPED IN SETTING OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. WEAK FORCING ALSO BEING PROVIDED
BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS BRINING UPSLOPE FLOW. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IS BEING SUPPRESS SOUTHWARD BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE PLAINS HAVE ENDED. HAVE REMOVED
POPS OVER THE PLAINS FOR TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. ISOLD
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MTNS
OVER THE PAST HOUR...IN A LOW SHEAR MONSOONAL REGIME...BUT
OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION AND MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NW. NOTE DEWPTS WHICH HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID 40S AT MILES CITY
AND BAKER AT 2 PM. A LONE WEAK CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW POWDER
RIVER COUNTY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT DO MUCH. FOR THE EARLY EVENING
WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD POPS OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTH...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL LOW TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES DOMINATED BY MONSOONAL
FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOWER COVERAGE THAN TODAY AS PWATS FALL
TO VALUES CLOSER TO A HALF INCH...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM OVER THE MTNS. PWATS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY SO EXPECT ISOLD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF MOISTURE FROM POST-
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE BAJA COAST...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GIVE A
BOOST TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR OUR SW MTNS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT ANY TSTMS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND WEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F TOMORROW AND
INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BETWEEN FRI AND TUE CONCURRENT WITH THE LARGE-
SCALE /ALBEIT GRADUAL/ DE-AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48.
WE EXPECT A SLOW UPTICK IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY WITH THIS TRANSITION OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ENHANCED PUSHES
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE TIMING OF THOSE FEATURES IS NOT A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE ITEM...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY AGREE THAT
A BETTER SHORTWAVE MAY ARRIVE BY MON AND TUE...SO WE CHOSE TO SHOW
A BIT HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHS MAY COOL SOME ON
MON AND TUE IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITION
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z...ALTHOUGH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/089 062/091 062/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 052/087 053/090 055/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 056/091 057/092 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 059/090 061/092 063/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 056/088 058/090 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 053/086 055/088 057/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 053/087 053/089 054/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 300226
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
826 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WINDS USING THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND
NUDGED UPWARD IN A FEW PLACES WHERE READINGS HAVE BEEN A BIT
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK DEPICTING A
QUIET NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THIS PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODELS DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10
KTS AT TIMES. BMICKELSON/MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300226
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
826 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WINDS USING THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND
NUDGED UPWARD IN A FEW PLACES WHERE READINGS HAVE BEEN A BIT
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK DEPICTING A
QUIET NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THIS PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODELS DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10
KTS AT TIMES. BMICKELSON/MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300226
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
826 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WINDS USING THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND
NUDGED UPWARD IN A FEW PLACES WHERE READINGS HAVE BEEN A BIT
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK DEPICTING A
QUIET NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THIS PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODELS DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10
KTS AT TIMES. BMICKELSON/MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300226
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
826 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED WINDS USING THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND
NUDGED UPWARD IN A FEW PLACES WHERE READINGS HAVE BEEN A BIT
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK DEPICTING A
QUIET NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THIS PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODELS DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY PICK UP TO NEAR 10
KTS AT TIMES. BMICKELSON/MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
VFR conditions this evening.  Pockets of monsoonal moisture mainly
along the Continental Divide and over parts of southwest MT will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms through
02-03Z.  KBZN/KHLN are only local terminals that may be impacted by
the convective activity as easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep showers/storms away from KGTF/KCTB/
KHVR/KLWT. Convection should steadily dissipate toward sunset with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected across the region
overnight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KMSO 292102
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
302 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially so for Lemhi County, southwest Montana
(Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key threat will
be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm motion that
may produce urban, small stream or even flash flooding. These
storms should show signs of diminishing shortly after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at hand as
monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into the
Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...The afternoon and evening thunderstorm threat will be
mostly at KSMN and KBTM. Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO
and KGPI late this afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out
after sunset with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 292102
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
302 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially so for Lemhi County, southwest Montana
(Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key threat will
be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm motion that
may produce urban, small stream or even flash flooding. These
storms should show signs of diminishing shortly after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at hand as
monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into the
Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...The afternoon and evening thunderstorm threat will be
mostly at KSMN and KBTM. Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO
and KGPI late this afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out
after sunset with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 292058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
258 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially the case for Lemhi County, southwest
Montana (Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key
threat will be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm
motion that may produce urban, small stream or even flash
flooding. These storms should show signs of diminishing shortly
after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A relatively hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at
hand as monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into
the Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will be very similar to Monday: the morning
hours will be quite stable, but there will be another threat for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms to impact KSMN and KBTM.
Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this
afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset
with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 292058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
258 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially the case for Lemhi County, southwest
Montana (Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key
threat will be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm
motion that may produce urban, small stream or even flash
flooding. These storms should show signs of diminishing shortly
after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A relatively hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at
hand as monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into
the Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will be very similar to Monday: the morning
hours will be quite stable, but there will be another threat for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms to impact KSMN and KBTM.
Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this
afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset
with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula














000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1723Z.
VFR conditions are likely. There will be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the mountains from the Rocky
Mountain Front to southwest Montana. There is an outside chance
these isolated thunderstorms could drift east over the plains. Local
wind gusts to 40 knots could occur near thunderstorms. Confidence in
forecast winds this afternoon is moderate to high. Light and
variable winds are expected by late tonight and continuing into
Wednesday morning. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292049
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The strong upper ridge will continue
over the western U.S. with the axis of the upper ridge going
through western Montana. Do not see any significant weather
disturbances aloft during the period and moisture will be somewhat
limited but afternoon heating will lead to thunderstorms which
should diminish overnight with the loss of heating. Although no
severe thunderstorms are expected through Thursday there could be
gusty winds with them. For southwest Montana expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Expect a little more activity Thursday as instability
increases slightly. To the north northerly flow aloft should keep
thunderstorms pretty close to the mountains this evening. As the
flow aloft turns more westerly and increases by Thursday
thunderstorms will have a better chance of moving off the
mountains. Also by Thursday afternoon a surface trough over the
plains could also contribute to the development of thunderstorms.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will result in at least a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models
suggest that the best chance for precipitation will be Saturday
as a stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. High temperatures in the low 80s
to low 90s Friday will lower to the lower to mid 80s this upcoming
weekend. MLV/JMB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1723Z.
VFR conditions are likely. There will be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the mountains from the Rocky
Mountain Front to southwest Montana. There is an outside chance
these isolated thunderstorms could drift east over the plains. Local
wind gusts to 40 knots could occur near thunderstorms. Confidence in
forecast winds this afternoon is moderate to high. Light and
variable winds are expected by late tonight and continuing into
Wednesday morning. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  59  90 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  56  90  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  60  92  59  92 /  20  20  20  30
BZN  53  87  53  87 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  42  76  40  77 /  20  40  40  40
DLN  53  83  52  84 /  20  30  30  40
HVR  57  95  57  95 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  89  56  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. ISOLD
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MTNS
OVER THE PAST HOUR...IN A LOW SHEAR MONSOONAL REGIME...BUT
OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION AND MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NW. NOTE DEWPTS WHICH HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID 40S AT MILES CITY
AND BAKER AT 2 PM. A LONE WEAK CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW POWDER
RIVER COUNTY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT DO MUCH. FOR THE EARLY EVENING
WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD POPS OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTH...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL LOW TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES DOMINATED BY MONSOONAL
FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOWER COVERAGE THAN TODAY AS PWATS FALL
TO VALUES CLOSER TO A HALF INCH...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM OVER THE MTNS. PWATS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY SO EXPECT ISOLD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF MOISTURE FROM POST-
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE BAJA COAST...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GIVE A
BOOST TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR OUR SW MTNS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT ANY TSTMS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND WEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F TOMORROW AND
INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BETWEEN FRI AND TUE CONCURRENT WITH THE LARGE-
SCALE /ALBEIT GRADUAL/ DE-AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48.
WE EXPECT A SLOW UPTICK IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY WITH THIS TRANSITION OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ENHANCED PUSHES
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE TIMING OF THOSE FEATURES IS NOT A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE ITEM...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY AGREE THAT
A BETTER SHORTWAVE MAY ARRIVE BY MON AND TUE...SO WE CHOSE TO SHOW
A BIT HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHS MAY COOL SOME ON
MON AND TUE IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS
FROM KLVM TO KSHR WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING. LOCAL SUB-
VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THAT ACTIVITY...BUT OTHERWISE WE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/089 062/091 062/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 051/087 053/090 055/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 056/091 057/092 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 059/090 061/092 063/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 056/088 058/090 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 053/086 055/088 057/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 052/087 053/089 054/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    20/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. ISOLD
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MTNS
OVER THE PAST HOUR...IN A LOW SHEAR MONSOONAL REGIME...BUT
OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION AND MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM
THE NW. NOTE DEWPTS WHICH HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID 40S AT MILES CITY
AND BAKER AT 2 PM. A LONE WEAK CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW POWDER
RIVER COUNTY BUT THIS SHOULD NOT DO MUCH. FOR THE EARLY EVENING
WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD POPS OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTH...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL LOW TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES DOMINATED BY MONSOONAL
FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LOWER COVERAGE THAN TODAY AS PWATS FALL
TO VALUES CLOSER TO A HALF INCH...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM OVER THE MTNS. PWATS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY SO EXPECT ISOLD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER OUR WESTERN
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF MOISTURE FROM POST-
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN OFF THE BAJA COAST...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GIVE A
BOOST TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR OUR SW MTNS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT ANY TSTMS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND WEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F TOMORROW AND
INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BETWEEN FRI AND TUE CONCURRENT WITH THE LARGE-
SCALE /ALBEIT GRADUAL/ DE-AMPLIFICATION OF FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48.
WE EXPECT A SLOW UPTICK IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY WITH THIS TRANSITION OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ENHANCED PUSHES
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE TIMING OF THOSE FEATURES IS NOT A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE ITEM...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY AGREE THAT
A BETTER SHORTWAVE MAY ARRIVE BY MON AND TUE...SO WE CHOSE TO SHOW
A BIT HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHS MAY COOL SOME ON
MON AND TUE IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS
FROM KLVM TO KSHR WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING. LOCAL SUB-
VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THAT ACTIVITY...BUT OTHERWISE WE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/089 062/091 062/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 051/087 053/090 055/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 056/091 057/092 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 059/090 061/092 063/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 056/088 058/090 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 053/086 055/088 057/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 052/087 053/089 054/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    20/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 292016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODEL DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF NOT
CALM...BUT MIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 292016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODEL DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF NOT
CALM...BUT MIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 292016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODEL DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF NOT
CALM...BUT MIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 292016
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A DRY SWATH
RUNNING THROUGH NORTHEAST MT BUT SANDWICHED BETWEEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A LARGE
CIRCULATION...CENTERED IN UTAH THIS MORNING...IS MOVING EAST. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT WE HAD
LAST NIGHT TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR NE ZONES
FOR TOMORROW EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED THIS BEST WITH SOME
LIGHT QPF. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE
20S*C BY THURSDAY.  JAMBA


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REPRESENTS THE NEAREST CHANCE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...FELT IT WAS BEST TO UPDATE THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS DATA.
ALTHOUGH...SOME MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME PERIODS WERE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY. THROUGH MONDAY...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ADD A BIT
MORE DETAIL REGARDING THE EXPECTED POPS.

GENERALLY...SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A NUMBER OF SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA. OTHER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN EFFECT FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT MODEL DISAGREE TOO MUCH TO ALLOW ANYTHING
MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY
CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE
EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IF NOT
CALM...BUT MIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291722
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1723Z.
VFR conditions are likely. There will be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the mountains from the Rocky
Mountain Front to southwest Montana. There is an outside chance
these isolated thunderstorms could drift east over the plains. Local
wind gusts to 40 knots could occur near thunderstorms. Confidence in
forecast winds this afternoon is moderate to high. Light and
variable winds are expected by late tonight and continuing into
Wednesday morning. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291652
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1052 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR MILES CITY AND COLSTRIP GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OUR SOUTH TODAY...ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MONSOONAL
PLUME IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME UNORGANIZED
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN NOW AND MID AFTN...A SHORT WINDOW HERE...BUT
OTHERWISE WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS PASSES. HAVE MADE A FEW MORE POP
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    1/B 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 11/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 21/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291652
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1052 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR MILES CITY AND COLSTRIP GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OUR SOUTH TODAY...ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MONSOONAL
PLUME IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME UNORGANIZED
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN NOW AND MID AFTN...A SHORT WINDOW HERE...BUT
OTHERWISE WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS PASSES. HAVE MADE A FEW MORE POP
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    1/B 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 11/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 21/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291458
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
858 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRED UP OVERNIGHT AND
MOVED SE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. NOW ARE EXITING
BUT LEFT PRAIRIE COUNTY UNDER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS SUNNY AND WARM/HOT FOR THE AFTERNOON. JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
UPPER RIDGE STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WELLING UP UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PROVING ENOUGH
FORCING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WAVE PUSHES THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH A LACK OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EBERT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH NEAR THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 291458
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
858 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRED UP OVERNIGHT AND
MOVED SE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. NOW ARE EXITING
BUT LEFT PRAIRIE COUNTY UNDER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS SUNNY AND WARM/HOT FOR THE AFTERNOON. JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
UPPER RIDGE STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WELLING UP UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PROVING ENOUGH
FORCING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WAVE PUSHES THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH A LACK OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EBERT


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT AHEAD
AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH NEAR THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXISTS FROM A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS TO A
NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PCPN IS
IN RESPONSE TO RRQ JET DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHEAST MT MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
THIS UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING...SO FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE LATER
TODAY. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR S/SW NEAR WEAK LOW IN
UTAH...AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. FOR THE
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90F...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 01/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 01/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXISTS FROM A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS TO A
NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PCPN IS
IN RESPONSE TO RRQ JET DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHEAST MT MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
THIS UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING...SO FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE LATER
TODAY. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR S/SW NEAR WEAK LOW IN
UTAH...AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. FOR THE
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90F...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 01/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 01/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 291132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 291132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 291132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Overall, VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible at KLWT this
morning, however these showers should diminish by 15z. Mainly dry
conditions are expected at all TAF sites today, with the exception
of KHLN and KBZN where isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as Monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Have added VCTS
to KBZN and VCSH for KHLN this afternoon after 20z. Gusty, erratic
winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, otherwise light and
variable winds will prevail. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 290948
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Another very warm day is expected for the Northern
Rockies, with daytime highs near or slightly above values observed
yesterday. This afternoon, a push of moisture from the south will set
off a few more afternoon/evening thundershowers across southwest
Montana and central Idaho. Since many of these will be terrain-
driven, a few storms may also pop up over the terrain along the
Continental Divide as well.

The chance for thunderstorm development increases Wednesday
afternoon and evening, as more moisture and instability will be
available to produce more abundant storms. Gusty winds, brief but
heavy rainfall, and plentiful lightning will be the major threats
to those planning on being outdoors.

Unfortunately, it doesn`t seem that we are relieved of this
unsettled, daily pattern of thunderstorm occurring through the
end of the week into the weekend. Mornings will start out quite
pleasant, and temperatures overall will be around normal (or
slightly warmer) through the end of next weekend. The only thing
to watch out for is the development of late-day storms and how
these will impact your plans if you have recreational activities
outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will be very similar to Monday: the morning
hours will be quite stable, but there will be another threat for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms to impact KSMN and KBTM.
Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this
afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset
with winds diminishing area-wide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Allegretto

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290942
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290942
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
342 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290921
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAPE TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMLS. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS PERSIST
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE AREA. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    1/B 01/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 01/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 290858
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER
RIDGE STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WELLING
UP UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PROVING ENOUGH
FORCING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WAVE PUSHES THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH A LACK OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT A
HEAD AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...AND MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290858
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER
RIDGE STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WELLING
UP UNDER THE RIDGE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PROVING ENOUGH
FORCING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WAVE PUSHES THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH A LACK OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A GENERALLY CHANGE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RIDING THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOST
WILL SPLIT MOISTURE NORTH OR SOUTH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA BUT A
FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL NOT BE PRONOUNCED. WENT A
HEAD AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SWEEPING WAVES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INTERMITTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONAL. MODELS AGREE GENERALLY BUT NOT IN DETAIL. SO WILL LEAVE
THAT ASPECT ON THE VAGUE SIDE. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...AND MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 290500
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture will continue
to move in over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 290328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 290328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 290328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Latest satellite/radar imagery shows a weak disturbance and small
area of accompanying monsoonal moisture working its way across parts
of the central and Hiline counties.  This is bringing some isolated
light showers and a few brief thunderstorms east of the I-15
corridor, heading toward Havre, Raynesford and eventually Fergus and
Blaine counties. Some of the radar-indicated precip, as seen here in
Great Falls, is not reaching the ground due to the dry surface
conditions, with many locations still reporting relative humidity
values below 30% at 9pm.  The disturbance will exit eastward
tonight, with dry conditions expected across the entire region
shortly after midnight.  Only notable forecast adjustments this
evening were to increase precip chances in the mentioned areas.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290255
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS RESULTED
IN SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM BIG HORN COUNTY WEST. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVOCATE FOR MORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-90 FROM ABOUT
2 AM THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. SPREAD ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO COVER THIS...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ONLY A FEW CELLS WITH MOST AREAS THAT SEE ANY
PRECIP GETTING ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    22/T    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    22/T    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    22/T    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 063/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    10/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 056/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 058/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    22/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290255
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS RESULTED
IN SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM BIG HORN COUNTY WEST. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVOCATE FOR MORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-90 FROM ABOUT
2 AM THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. SPREAD ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO COVER THIS...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ONLY A FEW CELLS WITH MOST AREAS THAT SEE ANY
PRECIP GETTING ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    22/T    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    22/T    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    22/T    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 063/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    10/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 056/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 058/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    22/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 290227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS HIGH BASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY TRIGGERS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT BEST. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE TOO
DRY WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINING
OVER WESTERN MONTANA...SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP NE MT DRY. DRY MID AND
LOW LEVELS AND A LACK OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET TOO.

THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SW ZONES
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. TFJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS ON THE PERIODS AROUND FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE COLD AIR-MASS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH. THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT AND
DESTINATION OF THIS AIR-MASS DETERMINES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AT THE MOMENT THE OPERATION GFS RUN SMASHES THE AIR-MASS UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE AND DRAGS IT OVER MONTANA. THIS WOULD COOL
DOWN THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY THE AREA OUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

THE EC...CMC...AND BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE COLD AIR-
MASS AND DRAG IT FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BYPASSING NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA QUITE A
BIT. OTHER EFFECTS WOULD BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND OVERNIGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS WHICH RAISES POPS
AT LEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

WENT WITH THE SECOND BULK/EC SOLUTION AS THIS IS MORE SEASONAL FOR
NORTHWEST COOL AIR-MASS PASSAGES. THIS FORCED POPS TO RISE TO AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND AFTER. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
AND DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT AT BAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY.
DID ADD A FEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EASTERLY WIND WILL RANGE FROM 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS HIGH BASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY TRIGGERS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT BEST. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE TOO
DRY WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINING
OVER WESTERN MONTANA...SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP NE MT DRY. DRY MID AND
LOW LEVELS AND A LACK OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET TOO.

THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SW ZONES
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. TFJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS ON THE PERIODS AROUND FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE COLD AIR-MASS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH. THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT AND
DESTINATION OF THIS AIR-MASS DETERMINES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AT THE MOMENT THE OPERATION GFS RUN SMASHES THE AIR-MASS UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE AND DRAGS IT OVER MONTANA. THIS WOULD COOL
DOWN THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY THE AREA OUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

THE EC...CMC...AND BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE COLD AIR-
MASS AND DRAG IT FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BYPASSING NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA QUITE A
BIT. OTHER EFFECTS WOULD BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND OVERNIGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS WHICH RAISES POPS
AT LEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

WENT WITH THE SECOND BULK/EC SOLUTION AS THIS IS MORE SEASONAL FOR
NORTHWEST COOL AIR-MASS PASSAGES. THIS FORCED POPS TO RISE TO AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND AFTER. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
AND DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT AT BAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY.
DID ADD A FEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EASTERLY WIND WILL RANGE FROM 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS HIGH BASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY TRIGGERS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT BEST. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE TOO
DRY WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINING
OVER WESTERN MONTANA...SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP NE MT DRY. DRY MID AND
LOW LEVELS AND A LACK OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET TOO.

THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SW ZONES
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. TFJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS ON THE PERIODS AROUND FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE COLD AIR-MASS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH. THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT AND
DESTINATION OF THIS AIR-MASS DETERMINES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AT THE MOMENT THE OPERATION GFS RUN SMASHES THE AIR-MASS UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE AND DRAGS IT OVER MONTANA. THIS WOULD COOL
DOWN THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY THE AREA OUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

THE EC...CMC...AND BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE COLD AIR-
MASS AND DRAG IT FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BYPASSING NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA QUITE A
BIT. OTHER EFFECTS WOULD BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND OVERNIGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS WHICH RAISES POPS
AT LEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

WENT WITH THE SECOND BULK/EC SOLUTION AS THIS IS MORE SEASONAL FOR
NORTHWEST COOL AIR-MASS PASSAGES. THIS FORCED POPS TO RISE TO AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND AFTER. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
AND DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT AT BAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY.
DID ADD A FEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EASTERLY WIND WILL RANGE FROM 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290227
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST AS HIGH BASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY TRIGGERS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT BEST. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE TOO
DRY WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINING
OVER WESTERN MONTANA...SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP NE MT DRY. DRY MID AND
LOW LEVELS AND A LACK OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET TOO.

THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SW ZONES
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. TFJ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS ON THE PERIODS AROUND FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE COLD AIR-MASS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH. THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT AND
DESTINATION OF THIS AIR-MASS DETERMINES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

AT THE MOMENT THE OPERATION GFS RUN SMASHES THE AIR-MASS UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE AND DRAGS IT OVER MONTANA. THIS WOULD COOL
DOWN THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY THE AREA OUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

THE EC...CMC...AND BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE COLD AIR-
MASS AND DRAG IT FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BYPASSING NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA QUITE A
BIT. OTHER EFFECTS WOULD BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND OVERNIGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS WHICH RAISES POPS
AT LEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

WENT WITH THE SECOND BULK/EC SOLUTION AS THIS IS MORE SEASONAL FOR
NORTHWEST COOL AIR-MASS PASSAGES. THIS FORCED POPS TO RISE TO AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND AFTER. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
AND DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT AT BAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY.
DID ADD A FEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EASTERLY WIND WILL RANGE FROM 10KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 290004
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure provides mostly dry and
stable conditions. Mid and high level moisture will continue to
increase over Southwest and Central Montana and isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible until 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 282047
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The weather over the Northern Rockies this week will be dominated
by a ridge of high pressure centered over Western Montana and
monsoonal moisture moving slowly around the ridge throughout the
period. The high pressure under the ridge will bring continued hot
temperatures, and the moisture support a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at times throughout the week. With an absence of any
significant upper-level features to aid in triggering storms,
the main factor will be very weak and subtle impulses moving
through the ridge, and thunderstorm chances will be largely
dependent on moisture availability. Thus, while there is low
confidence in any one day, it is likely that midweek will have the
best chance of thunderstorm activity as models show the best
moisture moving through in that period.

In terms of impacts to Western Montana and North-Central Idaho, we
are not expecting anything significant at this time as the storms
do not look to be particularly strong. Lightning is still a
concern, as with all thunderstorms, although increasing moisture
during the week could help offset fire vulnerability. Flash
flooding, while not outside the realm of possibility, is not a big
concern at this time as storm motion looks to speed up by the time
the best moisture arrives midweek.

Looking ahead to the latter part of the week and into the
weekend, there is a potential for a stronger upper-level disturbance,
originally rooted in the subtropics, to drift northward and bring
better instability as well as increased moisture to the Northern
Rockies around Saturday. We will be watching this feature closely
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...A small threat exists for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly impacting KSMN and perhaps KBTM. Meanwhile,
breezy north winds are possible at KMSO late this afternoons.
Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset with winds
diminishing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 282047
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The weather over the Northern Rockies this week will be dominated
by a ridge of high pressure centered over Western Montana and
monsoonal moisture moving slowly around the ridge throughout the
period. The high pressure under the ridge will bring continued hot
temperatures, and the moisture support a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at times throughout the week. With an absence of any
significant upper-level features to aid in triggering storms,
the main factor will be very weak and subtle impulses moving
through the ridge, and thunderstorm chances will be largely
dependent on moisture availability. Thus, while there is low
confidence in any one day, it is likely that midweek will have the
best chance of thunderstorm activity as models show the best
moisture moving through in that period.

In terms of impacts to Western Montana and North-Central Idaho, we
are not expecting anything significant at this time as the storms
do not look to be particularly strong. Lightning is still a
concern, as with all thunderstorms, although increasing moisture
during the week could help offset fire vulnerability. Flash
flooding, while not outside the realm of possibility, is not a big
concern at this time as storm motion looks to speed up by the time
the best moisture arrives midweek.

Looking ahead to the latter part of the week and into the
weekend, there is a potential for a stronger upper-level disturbance,
originally rooted in the subtropics, to drift northward and bring
better instability as well as increased moisture to the Northern
Rockies around Saturday. We will be watching this feature closely
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...A small threat exists for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly impacting KSMN and perhaps KBTM. Meanwhile,
breezy north winds are possible at KMSO late this afternoons.
Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset with winds
diminishing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 282036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Mid and high level moisture will continue to increase over southwest
Montana and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains
after 21z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 282036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Mid and high level moisture will continue to increase over southwest
Montana and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains
after 21z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282033
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
233 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR CONDITION/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
BEFORE 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    00/B    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 055/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 061/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 059/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 054/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 056/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    12/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282033
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
233 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR CONDITION/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
BEFORE 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    00/B    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 055/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 061/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 059/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 054/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 056/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    12/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 281948
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
148 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY TRIGGERS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT BEST. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE TOO
DRY WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINING
OVER WESTERN MONTANA...SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP NE MT DRY. DRY MID AND
LOW LEVELS AND A LACK OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET TOO.

THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SW ZONES
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. TFJ


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS ON THE PERIODS AROUND FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH. THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT AND DESTINATION
OF THIS AIRMASS DETERMINES THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

AT THE MOMENT THE OPERATION GFS RUN SMASHES THE AIRMASS
UP AGAINST THE FRONTRANGE AND DRAGS IT OVER MONTANA. THIS WOULD
COOL DOWN THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY THE AREA OUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

THE EC... CMC... AND BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE COLD AIRMASS
AND DRAG IT FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BYPASSING NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA QUITE A
BIT. OTHER EFFECTS WOULD BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND OVERNIGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS WHICH RAISES POPS
AT LEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

WENT WITH THE SECOND BULK/EC SOLUTION AS THIS IS MORE SEASONAL FOR
NORTHWEST COOL AIRMASS PASSAGES. THIS FORCED POPS TO RISE TO AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND AFTER. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
AND DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT AT BAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY.
DID ADD A FEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

AREA WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY... CALMING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281948
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
148 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY TRIGGERS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT BEST. MODELS SOMETIMES ARE TOO
DRY WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINING
OVER WESTERN MONTANA...SUPPRESSION WILL KEEP NE MT DRY. DRY MID AND
LOW LEVELS AND A LACK OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET TOO.

THE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE SW ZONES
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. TFJ


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS ON THE PERIODS AROUND FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH. THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT AND DESTINATION
OF THIS AIRMASS DETERMINES THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

AT THE MOMENT THE OPERATION GFS RUN SMASHES THE AIRMASS
UP AGAINST THE FRONTRANGE AND DRAGS IT OVER MONTANA. THIS WOULD
COOL DOWN THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY THE AREA OUT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

THE EC... CMC... AND BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE THE COLD AIRMASS
AND DRAG IT FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BYPASSING NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WOULD
ALLOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA QUITE A
BIT. OTHER EFFECTS WOULD BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND OVERNIGHT MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOWERS WHICH RAISES POPS
AT LEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

WENT WITH THE SECOND BULK/EC SOLUTION AS THIS IS MORE SEASONAL FOR
NORTHWEST COOL AIRMASS PASSAGES. THIS FORCED POPS TO RISE TO AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THESE PERIODS AND AFTER. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
AND DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT AT BAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY.
DID ADD A FEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

AREA WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY... CALMING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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