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000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 281746
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
A band of light snow showers will mainly affect Central MT thru
22z...and mainly the LWT airport. Otherwise...a few low clouds
linger at the other terminals...but those low clouds should burn off
by 21z or so. A weak upper level disturbance will move thru the
Havre/Lewistown area between 6z and 12z Sun...with mainly just a few
flurries. Conditions improve to VFR over much of the region for
Sunday afternoon. Looking ahead...widespread snow and IFR conditions
expected in many areas Monday afternoon thru Tue morning. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.UPDATE...Skies have cleared across portions of the forecast area
but a swath of central Montana remains cloudy, foggy and snowy
this morning. Satellite imagery suggests that this swath of clouds
will move southeast and breakup but latest model runs also suggest
that cloud cover could increase once again during the afternoon as
heating causes moist air to rise. Have updated the forecast to add
flurries and fog to the area extending from just south of Havre to
Helena. Have also updated sky cover to introduce more clouds and
scattered flurries this afternoon. Accumulations will be light,
generally less than one half inch, and any sun this afternoon will
help to melt off the light snow on roadways. Afternoon high
temperatures appear to be on track so have not made any changes to
the expected max temp. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPDATE FOR
THIS MORNING WAS MINOR...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUN LATER TODAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 023 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/B 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 020 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPDATE FOR
THIS MORNING WAS MINOR...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUN LATER TODAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 023 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/B 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 020 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPDATE FOR
THIS MORNING WAS MINOR...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUN LATER TODAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 023 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/B 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 020 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPDATE FOR
THIS MORNING WAS MINOR...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUN LATER TODAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 023 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/B 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 020 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPDATE FOR
THIS MORNING WAS MINOR...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUN LATER TODAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 023 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/B 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 020 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPDATE FOR
THIS MORNING WAS MINOR...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUN LATER TODAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 023 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/B 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 020 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 281557
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
857 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK
WORTH NOTING WAS TO EXPAND MENTION OF FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE EXTEND OF THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE THE
GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. A BKN LOW LEVEL DECK AT 2 TO 3
KFT AGL IS PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY.

VSBY:ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE ONLY LIMITED RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 281557
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
857 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY TWEAK
WORTH NOTING WAS TO EXPAND MENTION OF FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE EXTEND OF THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE THE
GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. A BKN LOW LEVEL DECK AT 2 TO 3
KFT AGL IS PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDDAY.

VSBY:ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE ONLY LIMITED RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 281117
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
417 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1116Z.
The upper level low pressure trof over Central Montana will move
east of the region by this afternoon. Moisture and lower cigs will
move east and most areas will see VFR conditions by morning. Ample
low-level moisture will remain, however, and areas of MVFR/IFR will
last into mid-morning. especially near KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 281115
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures and wind chills are impacting the
region this morning. Temperatures overnight have been slow to
lower to their potential thanks to some overcast clouds and wind.
Nevertheless wind chills in much of Southwest Montana hover around
0 with single digits elsewhere. The upper low that was to bring
some light accumulating snow is a bit further south than
anticipated. Only a few light snow showers in Butte and Salmon
have occurred with not much expected the rest of the day.

Dry north/northwest flow will impact the region through Monday
morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal (10-20
degrees) with lows in the single digits and teens.

The next potential big impact comes Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as another shot of arctic air crosses the divide.
A stronger weather disturbance, supported with a northerly jet, is
associated with this system and will produce a band of snow in
western Montana with the best potential for significant
accumulations in along the mountains and valleys along the
continental divide. Lighter snow accumulations are expected in the
Flathead/Mission/Missoula valleys. Even an inch or two could be a
significant impact given the time of year and the dry road
surfaces. There is not a lot of confidence to put exact numbers on
snow amounts so stay tuned.

After this weather system, temperatures will gradually increase
to near normal by Wednesday and a potential for above normal
temperatures in the upper 40s or around 50 by late next week as
models are consistent showing more of a ridge development across
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few morning showers may impact KBTM and KSMN early this morning
as a weak weather disturbance moves south of the region. East to
Northeast winds will be gusty at times especially at KGPI and
KMSO through the morning. Winds are expected to gradually decrease
throughout the afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 281115
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures and wind chills are impacting the
region this morning. Temperatures overnight have been slow to
lower to their potential thanks to some overcast clouds and wind.
Nevertheless wind chills in much of Southwest Montana hover around
0 with single digits elsewhere. The upper low that was to bring
some light accumulating snow is a bit further south than
anticipated. Only a few light snow showers in Butte and Salmon
have occurred with not much expected the rest of the day.

Dry north/northwest flow will impact the region through Monday
morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal (10-20
degrees) with lows in the single digits and teens.

The next potential big impact comes Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as another shot of arctic air crosses the divide.
A stronger weather disturbance, supported with a northerly jet, is
associated with this system and will produce a band of snow in
western Montana with the best potential for significant
accumulations in along the mountains and valleys along the
continental divide. Lighter snow accumulations are expected in the
Flathead/Mission/Missoula valleys. Even an inch or two could be a
significant impact given the time of year and the dry road
surfaces. There is not a lot of confidence to put exact numbers on
snow amounts so stay tuned.

After this weather system, temperatures will gradually increase
to near normal by Wednesday and a potential for above normal
temperatures in the upper 40s or around 50 by late next week as
models are consistent showing more of a ridge development across
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few morning showers may impact KBTM and KSMN early this morning
as a weak weather disturbance moves south of the region. East to
Northeast winds will be gusty at times especially at KGPI and
KMSO through the morning. Winds are expected to gradually decrease
throughout the afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 281115
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures and wind chills are impacting the
region this morning. Temperatures overnight have been slow to
lower to their potential thanks to some overcast clouds and wind.
Nevertheless wind chills in much of Southwest Montana hover around
0 with single digits elsewhere. The upper low that was to bring
some light accumulating snow is a bit further south than
anticipated. Only a few light snow showers in Butte and Salmon
have occurred with not much expected the rest of the day.

Dry north/northwest flow will impact the region through Monday
morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal (10-20
degrees) with lows in the single digits and teens.

The next potential big impact comes Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as another shot of arctic air crosses the divide.
A stronger weather disturbance, supported with a northerly jet, is
associated with this system and will produce a band of snow in
western Montana with the best potential for significant
accumulations in along the mountains and valleys along the
continental divide. Lighter snow accumulations are expected in the
Flathead/Mission/Missoula valleys. Even an inch or two could be a
significant impact given the time of year and the dry road
surfaces. There is not a lot of confidence to put exact numbers on
snow amounts so stay tuned.

After this weather system, temperatures will gradually increase
to near normal by Wednesday and a potential for above normal
temperatures in the upper 40s or around 50 by late next week as
models are consistent showing more of a ridge development across
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few morning showers may impact KBTM and KSMN early this morning
as a weak weather disturbance moves south of the region. East to
Northeast winds will be gusty at times especially at KGPI and
KMSO through the morning. Winds are expected to gradually decrease
throughout the afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 281115
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures and wind chills are impacting the
region this morning. Temperatures overnight have been slow to
lower to their potential thanks to some overcast clouds and wind.
Nevertheless wind chills in much of Southwest Montana hover around
0 with single digits elsewhere. The upper low that was to bring
some light accumulating snow is a bit further south than
anticipated. Only a few light snow showers in Butte and Salmon
have occurred with not much expected the rest of the day.

Dry north/northwest flow will impact the region through Monday
morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal (10-20
degrees) with lows in the single digits and teens.

The next potential big impact comes Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as another shot of arctic air crosses the divide.
A stronger weather disturbance, supported with a northerly jet, is
associated with this system and will produce a band of snow in
western Montana with the best potential for significant
accumulations in along the mountains and valleys along the
continental divide. Lighter snow accumulations are expected in the
Flathead/Mission/Missoula valleys. Even an inch or two could be a
significant impact given the time of year and the dry road
surfaces. There is not a lot of confidence to put exact numbers on
snow amounts so stay tuned.

After this weather system, temperatures will gradually increase
to near normal by Wednesday and a potential for above normal
temperatures in the upper 40s or around 50 by late next week as
models are consistent showing more of a ridge development across
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few morning showers may impact KBTM and KSMN early this morning
as a weak weather disturbance moves south of the region. East to
Northeast winds will be gusty at times especially at KGPI and
KMSO through the morning. Winds are expected to gradually decrease
throughout the afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281002
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 021 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/E 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 019 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281002
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 021 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/E 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 019 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281002
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 021 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/E 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 019 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281002
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 021 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/E 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 019 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281001
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH
THIS WAVE. WILL MENTION FLURRIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS
WAVE THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WAVE HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH MONTANA GETTING THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION FOR NOW. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH WITH A COLD CORE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MONTANA AND DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE ROCKIES AND RUNS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LARGE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND RUNS FROM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. NORTHERN FLOW RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
AND RUNS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... VERY BEGINNING OF THESE
PERIODS STARTS WITH A COLD BLAST AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD SHOULD HANG IN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THESE PERIODS WILL BE MARKED
BY DRY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WEAK
CHINOOKS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE TO THIS POINT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY ONWARD... BULK OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE PERIPHERIES SUCH AS MONTANA MAY BE
JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO RECEIVE
SOME MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM A HINTED BACK DOOR FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS EFFECT DISAPPEARS VERY QUICKLY AS
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WARM MONTANA UP EVEN MORE LEADING INTO
SATURDAY ONWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS AVERAGE. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: HIGH MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE CYCLE.

CIGS: MAINLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL. WHILE FUEL LOADING IS TEMPORARILY
POSSIBLE... IT IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME.

VSBY: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IF PRESENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS ON VISIBILITY. AS OF 2AM UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MEDICINE HAT OR
REGINA.

WINDS: NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING... BACKING MORE TO THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...The overall weather pattern changes little
today with an upper level trough extending from Central Canada
southwestward into the SW US while at the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place over much of MT. Upper level low located in the
SW extension of the large scale trough will continue to sink south
through the Great Basin today, allowing drier air in the mid to
upper levels to spread south into the region. This should bring an
end to most of the snow flurry/light snow shower activity by late
this afternoon with skies partially clearing from north to south.
The airmass continues to dry Sunday and Sunday night with some
warming as well as the cold airmass at the surface shifts east
into the Northern Plains states. Shortwave and upper level jet
energy currently moving over the top of a sharp upper level ridge
located around 140W dives south through western Canada Sunday
night, causing the downstream upper level trough to amplify/deepen
Monday. A strong Arctic cold front will surge south into N-Central
MT Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and increasing north
winds as surface pressure rises behind the frontal passage. Snow
will accompany and follow the front spreading south through
N-central and central MT by late Monday afternoon. Hoenisch

Monday night through Saturday...A low pressure trof will move across
Central Montana Monday night and the associated cold front, already
into the central zones, will move through the southwest zones during
the evening. Widespread snow will continue through the night but
begin to taper from the north towards morning. The trof will be east
of the zones Tuesday night, the airmass will dry and some clearing
skies are expected. The surface high will be over the zones and very
cold overnight lows are expected...negative numbers across the
region with some negative teens in Southwest Montana. Winds will be
strong enough to create dangerous wind chills in some locations.
High pressure will continue over the West Coast Wednesday through
Saturday. This will generally put Central Montana underneath
northwest flow aloft. Several disturbances will move through this
flow. The first of these on Wednesday will help deepen the surface
trof along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause strong winds
across the slopes of the Rockies by late Wednesday. Another
disturbance aloft will strengthen winds across the Rockies again
Thursday night through Friday. This latter disturbance will also
bring a chance of snow across the Rockies into Central and Southwest
Montana Friday and Friday night. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  20   3  34  14 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  20   2  32  15 /   0  10  10   0
HLN  25   4  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  24   0  31   9 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  28 -10  32   4 /  30  10   0   0
DLN  25   2  33   9 /  30  10   0   0
HVR  23   2  30  12 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  19   2  31  14 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280549
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
Upper-level trough currently centered along US/Can border will
continue to push southward through MT tonight and tomorrow morning.
Expect mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings to persist thru the overnight
period, with 06Z TAFs backing off from the earlier forecast of more
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and -SN ahead of the trough axis.
Will still see some scattered areas of snow flurries/-SN, but current
minimal precipitation coverage on radar and decreasing dewpoints at
KCTB/KHVR point to a drying airmass with less available moisture for
persistent snow. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday as the trough exits into eastern MT/WY.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280452
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No signifcant changes to the forecast tonight as light upslope
snow continues to fall across parts of Central Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.DECISION SUPPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280416
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WEB CAMS...SNOTELS AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DID NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. THERE WAS A SPOTTY INCH HERE AND
THERE IN THE SNOTELS...AND EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THE BRIDGER
MOUNTAINS CAM HAD SOME SNOW. SOME RADAR ECHOES WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS ON RADAR AS OF 04Z. TRENDS IN PRESSURE
RISES AND TEMPERATURES SHOWED THE FRONT WAS THROUGH THE AREA.
JUDITH GAP HAD SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

THE LATEST MODELS SHOWED SPOTTY QPF W OF KBIL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. THE SREF SHOWED LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY LOCATION
RECEIVING /0.01/ INCHES OF QPF.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
LEFT THEM ALONE AFTER 06Z AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR JUDITH GAP
WHICH SHOULD BE WINDY UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST METBC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DECENT COLD ADVECTION.

WEAK VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SAT
SUPPORTING SNOW CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. ANOTHER VORTICITY
LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ON SUN DUE TO A MODERATING AIRMASS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY
EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
FREEZING. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SINKS BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO MVFR ON OCCASION FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THOSE LOCATIONS. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO MAINLY VFR BY
LATE MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 001/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    33/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 007/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 002/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 003/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 901/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 001/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280416
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WEB CAMS...SNOTELS AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DID NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. THERE WAS A SPOTTY INCH HERE AND
THERE IN THE SNOTELS...AND EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THE BRIDGER
MOUNTAINS CAM HAD SOME SNOW. SOME RADAR ECHOES WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS ON RADAR AS OF 04Z. TRENDS IN PRESSURE
RISES AND TEMPERATURES SHOWED THE FRONT WAS THROUGH THE AREA.
JUDITH GAP HAD SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

THE LATEST MODELS SHOWED SPOTTY QPF W OF KBIL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. THE SREF SHOWED LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY LOCATION
RECEIVING /0.01/ INCHES OF QPF.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
LEFT THEM ALONE AFTER 06Z AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR JUDITH GAP
WHICH SHOULD BE WINDY UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST METBC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DECENT COLD ADVECTION.

WEAK VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SAT
SUPPORTING SNOW CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. ANOTHER VORTICITY
LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ON SUN DUE TO A MODERATING AIRMASS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY
EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
FREEZING. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SINKS BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO MVFR ON OCCASION FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THOSE LOCATIONS. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO MAINLY VFR BY
LATE MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 001/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    33/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 007/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 002/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 003/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 901/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 001/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280416
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WEB CAMS...SNOTELS AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DID NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. THERE WAS A SPOTTY INCH HERE AND
THERE IN THE SNOTELS...AND EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THE BRIDGER
MOUNTAINS CAM HAD SOME SNOW. SOME RADAR ECHOES WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS ON RADAR AS OF 04Z. TRENDS IN PRESSURE
RISES AND TEMPERATURES SHOWED THE FRONT WAS THROUGH THE AREA.
JUDITH GAP HAD SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

THE LATEST MODELS SHOWED SPOTTY QPF W OF KBIL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. THE SREF SHOWED LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY LOCATION
RECEIVING /0.01/ INCHES OF QPF.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
LEFT THEM ALONE AFTER 06Z AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR JUDITH GAP
WHICH SHOULD BE WINDY UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST METBC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DECENT COLD ADVECTION.

WEAK VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SAT
SUPPORTING SNOW CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. ANOTHER VORTICITY
LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ON SUN DUE TO A MODERATING AIRMASS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY
EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
FREEZING. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SINKS BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO MVFR ON OCCASION FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THOSE LOCATIONS. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO MAINLY VFR BY
LATE MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 001/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    33/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 007/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 002/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 003/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 901/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 001/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280416
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WEB CAMS...SNOTELS AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DID NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. THERE WAS A SPOTTY INCH HERE AND
THERE IN THE SNOTELS...AND EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THE BRIDGER
MOUNTAINS CAM HAD SOME SNOW. SOME RADAR ECHOES WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS ON RADAR AS OF 04Z. TRENDS IN PRESSURE
RISES AND TEMPERATURES SHOWED THE FRONT WAS THROUGH THE AREA.
JUDITH GAP HAD SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

THE LATEST MODELS SHOWED SPOTTY QPF W OF KBIL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. THE SREF SHOWED LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY LOCATION
RECEIVING /0.01/ INCHES OF QPF.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
LEFT THEM ALONE AFTER 06Z AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR JUDITH GAP
WHICH SHOULD BE WINDY UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST METBC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DECENT COLD ADVECTION.

WEAK VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SAT
SUPPORTING SNOW CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. ANOTHER VORTICITY
LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ON SUN DUE TO A MODERATING AIRMASS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY
EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
FREEZING. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SINKS BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO MVFR ON OCCASION FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THOSE LOCATIONS. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO MAINLY VFR BY
LATE MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 001/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    33/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 007/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 002/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 003/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 901/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 001/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280416
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WEB CAMS...SNOTELS AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DID NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. THERE WAS A SPOTTY INCH HERE AND
THERE IN THE SNOTELS...AND EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THE BRIDGER
MOUNTAINS CAM HAD SOME SNOW. SOME RADAR ECHOES WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS ON RADAR AS OF 04Z. TRENDS IN PRESSURE
RISES AND TEMPERATURES SHOWED THE FRONT WAS THROUGH THE AREA.
JUDITH GAP HAD SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

THE LATEST MODELS SHOWED SPOTTY QPF W OF KBIL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. THE SREF SHOWED LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY LOCATION
RECEIVING /0.01/ INCHES OF QPF.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
LEFT THEM ALONE AFTER 06Z AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR JUDITH GAP
WHICH SHOULD BE WINDY UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST METBC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DECENT COLD ADVECTION.

WEAK VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SAT
SUPPORTING SNOW CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. ANOTHER VORTICITY
LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ON SUN DUE TO A MODERATING AIRMASS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY
EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
FREEZING. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SINKS BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO MVFR ON OCCASION FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THOSE LOCATIONS. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO MAINLY VFR BY
LATE MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 001/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    33/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 007/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 002/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 003/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 901/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 001/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 280248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING IN PERIODS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
OTHERWISE A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO FORECAST
CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND ON THE
HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING... BECOMING NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING... AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 280248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING IN PERIODS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
OTHERWISE A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO FORECAST
CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND ON THE
HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING... BECOMING NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING... AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280248
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING IN PERIODS OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
OTHERWISE A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO FORECAST
CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.     PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. THUS ADDED
MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL WARMING TREND ON THE
HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
AROUND 2 TO 3 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING... BECOMING NORTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING... AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 272349
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Current mix of VFR/MVFR conditions with occasional periods of -SN
will continue across central and southwestern MT into early evening,
as moist northerly flow persists. Lower ceilings (MVFR/IFR) and an
increase in -SN coverage are forecast after about 03Z as additional
moisture arrives ahead of an upper-level trof that will track NW-to-
SE across the state tonight and Sat morning.  Forecast models have
been consistent in showing the the trof clearing out of the region
starting around 12Z tomorrow vcnty KCTB/KHVR and vcnty KBZN by about
18Z.  Conditions will return to VFR following trof passage.
Northerly winds will remain light through tonight.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KGGW 272149
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS ADDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL
WARMING TREND ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE
12Z GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15KTS THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 272149
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY SUNUP...WITH JUST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SATURDAY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT
5-15KTS WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. THUS ADDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS...BUT WILL REFLECT AN OVERALL
WARMING TREND ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE SITTING IN A DRY REGION
BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGHS. BY MORNING A QUICK BUT WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TO MAINLY BRING A BIT OF
MIXING THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURE RISE UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THEN MODELS...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...BRING ABOUT
A MAJOR CHANGE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN EASTERN SIBERIA.
THIS AIR MASS MOVES INTO ALASKA THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER
HUDSON BAY LOW AND IS SENT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE BEST QPF IS EXPECTED
TO OUR WEST SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO...LIKELY...
LESS THAN TWO INCHES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS
WITH THE WIND AND FRIGID LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE BY DAY SEVEN THE 00ZEC AND 00Z GFS HAD DRIFTED APART. BUT THE
12Z GFS BRINGS IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND PUSHES THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EC FELL INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND AGREES WITH THE RIDGE. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. TRENDED TEMPERATURES
WARMER.

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MANLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

CIGS: SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A SCT LOW LEVEL DECK
LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15KTS THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KTFX 272134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 272134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272134
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...A couple of weather disturbances aloft will
be moving southeast through the forecast area later tonight and
Saturday. Ahead of them expect continued light snow along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountains tonight and early Saturday morning due
primarily to upslope flow. For southwest Montana periods of snow
will be mainly over the mountains. As for snow accumulations the
lower elevations of the east slopes should get no more than an
inch while mountains from the Rocky Mountain Front to southwest
Montana could see up to 3 inches. Behind the disturbances clouds
will decrease from the north with skies finally becoming partly
cloudy over far southwest Montana by early Saturday evening.
Saturday night another weather disturbance aloft will clip the
area near and east of a Havre to Lewistown line. Models differ on
the associated moisture. Have decided to mention a slight chance
of snow showers only over the Little Rocky Mountains but there
could end up being a threat farther west. Sunday is expected to be
mostly sunny and not as cold as a weak upper ridge moves southeast
through Montana. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border very early in the day. The cold front will move through
the zones during the day and move through the far southwest zones
by evening. Widespread snow will accompany this front and 1-4
inches of snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the
plains and southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains.
The trof will be moving east of the zones by late Tuesday. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for
very low overnight temps Tuesday night, mostly from 10 below to 20
below zero. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday
through Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the
ridge in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee
trof along the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the
slopes of the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the
winds, high pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the
airmass dry and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well
below normals Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind
chill values will be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards
Wednesday and reach near and above normals again Thursday.
Zelzer/Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2  17   4  30 /  90  20  10   0
CTB   0  18   3  30 /  70  10  10  10
HLN   7  22   5  32 /  40  20  10  10
BZN   6  22   2  28 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  -1  26 -13  31 /  40  30  10  10
DLN   7  23   2  30 /  40  30  10  10
HVR   0  20   3  28 /  10  10  10  10
LWT   1  17   2  28 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272133
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...MORE ARCTIC SURGES....

.DISCUSSION...An arctic air mass is on its way across the northern
Rockies setting up a cold and blustery weekend and beginning to
March. Tonight, light snow will impact Southwest Montana,
including Butte, Anaconda, and areas south with around an inch of
snow. Expect difficult driving conditions over Homestake Pass and
Divide Pass south of Butte tonight with snow accumulating on the
roads, and blowing snow causing low visibility. These conditions
will extend south through Lemhi county in Idaho affecting Lost
Trail Pass and Gilmore Summit too.

Wind chills will also be big concern east of Kalispell and
Missoula and along the Continental Divide, where many locations
will see -10 to -20 degree wind chills. The rest of western
Montana will have low temperatures in the low teens and single
digits, and central Idaho will wake up to temperatures in the
teens and low 20s.

More cold arrives Sunday morning, where areas east of Kalispell
and Missoula have low temperatures in below zero, with the rest of
western Montana in the single digits and central Idaho waking up
to temperatures in the low teens.

Another surge of Arctic air is expected Monday into Tuesday. The
difference, compared to current cold air pushes, is that this one
looks to have the most cold intensity in terms of temperature and
wind chill. Also, there appears to be sufficient energy and
moisture with the arctic weather system to produce a period of
light snow from Orofino to the Camas Prairie and eastward across
western Montana Monday and Monday night. This could translate into
very slick travel conditions, especially considering falling
temperatures will freeze slushy or wet road conditions.

Temperatures should bottom out Monday night into Wednesday morning
20 to 30 degrees below normal. Below zero wind chills and strong
northeast winds should then be followed by subzero temperatures in
western Montana and zero to 10 above in north central Idaho.

A quick warm-up Thursday into next weekend is beginning to look
more likely. Although there is high confidence since all models
show some form of this warm-up, there is some disagreement as to
whether there could be another round of precipitation on Friday.
The take- away being that the cold will not hold on for more than
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon showers over the mountains will continue into this
evening causing mountain obscurations. An arctic air mass is
currently surging over the Continental Divide and will cause some
light snow along the Divide tonight affecting KBTM with up to an
inch of snow by the morning. Other area terminals will mainly
experience strong east winds and very cold temperatures.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot
     Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Saturday
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272116
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 002/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    43/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 008/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 005/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 007/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 002/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 003/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272116
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 002/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    43/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 008/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 005/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 007/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 002/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 003/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272116
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 002/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    43/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 008/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 005/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 007/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 002/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 003/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272116
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 002/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    43/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 008/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 005/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 007/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 002/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 003/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272116
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 002/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    43/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 008/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 005/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 007/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 002/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 003/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272116
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 002/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    43/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 008/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 005/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 007/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 002/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 003/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 271852
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1152 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
It looks like light snow will continue over the east slopes
at least through the afternoon so have updated the forecast to
reflect this. Snow accumulations for the lower elevations should
be no more than an inch. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271852
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1152 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
It looks like light snow will continue over the east slopes
at least through the afternoon so have updated the forecast to
reflect this. Snow accumulations for the lower elevations should
be no more than an inch. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271852
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1152 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
It looks like light snow will continue over the east slopes
at least through the afternoon so have updated the forecast to
reflect this. Snow accumulations for the lower elevations should
be no more than an inch. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271852
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1152 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
It looks like light snow will continue over the east slopes
at least through the afternoon so have updated the forecast to
reflect this. Snow accumulations for the lower elevations should
be no more than an inch. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271852
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1152 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
It looks like light snow will continue over the east slopes
at least through the afternoon so have updated the forecast to
reflect this. Snow accumulations for the lower elevations should
be no more than an inch. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271852
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1152 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
It looks like light snow will continue over the east slopes
at least through the afternoon so have updated the forecast to
reflect this. Snow accumulations for the lower elevations should
be no more than an inch. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271753
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this.
Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A moist northerly flow aloft will continue to reside over the region
thru the period. As a result...periods of light upslope snows can be
expected thru 18z Sat. IFR conditions are expected in/near areas of
light snow...along with mountains obscured. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271728
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1028 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A band of snow showers has developed over the east slopes of the
Rocky Mountains and the forecast has been updated to cover this. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 / 100  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  80  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271650
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Surge of cold air from Canada is moving towards the Great Falls
area and will move into northern portions of southwest Montana
this afternoon. It is not cold enough to result in falling
temperatures after its passage but instead will prevent
temperatures from climbing as much as they could. With this update
lowered high temperatures over northeast portions of southwest
Montana a few degrees..more as a result of the expected cloud
cover and lack of mixing winds than any influence of the cold
front. Over Hill and Blaine Counties raised high temperatures
a few degrees based on recent trends. Still expect snow
accumulations later today and tonight up to 3 inches in the
mountains with a half-inch or less for the lower elevations before
drier air moves in from the north on Saturday. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015/

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  23   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  25   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  22  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  19  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 271613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS SPOT ON. ONLY TWEAK FOR THE UPDATE WAS
TO END THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND
TERMINATES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
WARMER AND SPREADS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE WEST A WEAK LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER
SIDE THESE TWO CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271556
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
856 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A
VERY COLD START THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AS A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL NOT BE STRONG...LATE FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST AREAS WHICH IS
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGHS FOR TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS  WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE TWO...OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH REMAINDER
THE SHORT TERM. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A WARMING TREND FROM COLD SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS IS THE COLDEST MODEL AT THIS POINT
AND HOLDS COLD AIR IN A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND
LINE...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AND NYE VICINITIES. SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
COLD AIR. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
ALL ROUTES. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KSHR TO
KMLS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LESSER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRON WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 008/021 005/031 015/039 008/010 903/025 015/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B
LVM 027 003/019 903/029 013/038 004/011 909/026 015/038
    2/J 55/J    20/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 028 008/024 004/034 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 026 006/022 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/040
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 026 007/023 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/040
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 025 004/021 004/027 011/036 006/012 903/018 006/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B
SHR 022 004/018 901/027 007/034 007/007 910/018 007/038
    0/U 13/J    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271556
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
856 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A
VERY COLD START THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AS A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL NOT BE STRONG...LATE FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST AREAS WHICH IS
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGHS FOR TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS  WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE TWO...OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH REMAINDER
THE SHORT TERM. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A WARMING TREND FROM COLD SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS IS THE COLDEST MODEL AT THIS POINT
AND HOLDS COLD AIR IN A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND
LINE...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AND NYE VICINITIES. SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
COLD AIR. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
ALL ROUTES. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KSHR TO
KMLS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LESSER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRON WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 008/021 005/031 015/039 008/010 903/025 015/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B
LVM 027 003/019 903/029 013/038 004/011 909/026 015/038
    2/J 55/J    20/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 028 008/024 004/034 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 026 006/022 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/040
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 026 007/023 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/040
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 025 004/021 004/027 011/036 006/012 903/018 006/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B
SHR 022 004/018 901/027 007/034 007/007 910/018 007/038
    0/U 13/J    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271556
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
856 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A
VERY COLD START THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AS A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL NOT BE STRONG...LATE FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST AREAS WHICH IS
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGHS FOR TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS  WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE TWO...OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH REMAINDER
THE SHORT TERM. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A WARMING TREND FROM COLD SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS IS THE COLDEST MODEL AT THIS POINT
AND HOLDS COLD AIR IN A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND
LINE...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AND NYE VICINITIES. SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
COLD AIR. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
ALL ROUTES. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KSHR TO
KMLS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LESSER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRON WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 008/021 005/031 015/039 008/010 903/025 015/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B
LVM 027 003/019 903/029 013/038 004/011 909/026 015/038
    2/J 55/J    20/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 028 008/024 004/034 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 026 006/022 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/040
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 026 007/023 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/040
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 025 004/021 004/027 011/036 006/012 903/018 006/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B
SHR 022 004/018 901/027 007/034 007/007 910/018 007/038
    0/U 13/J    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271556
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
856 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A
VERY COLD START THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AS A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL NOT BE STRONG...LATE FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST AREAS WHICH IS
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGHS FOR TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS  WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE TWO...OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH REMAINDER
THE SHORT TERM. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A WARMING TREND FROM COLD SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS IS THE COLDEST MODEL AT THIS POINT
AND HOLDS COLD AIR IN A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND
LINE...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AND NYE VICINITIES. SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
COLD AIR. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
ALL ROUTES. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KSHR TO
KMLS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LESSER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRON WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 008/021 005/031 015/039 008/010 903/025 015/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B
LVM 027 003/019 903/029 013/038 004/011 909/026 015/038
    2/J 55/J    20/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 028 008/024 004/034 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 026 006/022 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/040
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 026 007/023 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/040
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 025 004/021 004/027 011/036 006/012 903/018 006/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B
SHR 022 004/018 901/027 007/034 007/007 910/018 007/038
    0/U 13/J    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271217
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  26   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  28   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  18  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  22  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 271217
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
517 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1215Z.
An upper level low pressure trof will move through Central Montana
today. The associated cold front has crossed the Canadian border and
will move south through the region this morning. Local MVFR
conditions are expected behind the front as snow develops and cigs
lower. Winds will shift to the north with frontal passage although
strong winds are not expected. Local IFR conditions are possible
tonight after midnight as low level moisture and cool conditions
develop fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  26   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  28   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  18  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  22  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KMSO 271122
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
421 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...VERY COLD WIND CHILL PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

A broad Pacific storm system embedded within northerly flow aloft
will move west of the Northern Rockies today through Saturday,
drawing snow shower activity across the region. The orientation
of this system is such that relatively cold air east of the
Continental Divide will continue to be drawn westward over time. A
drop in temperatures and very cold wind chill will be most evident
along the Divide and near terrain gap features in western Montana,
such as Hellgate Canyon east of Missoula and Badrock Canyon east
of Columbia Falls. Snow showers may create hazardous driving
conditions for a time across the Camas Prairie of Idaho and over
Lost Trail Pass through Saturday.

After a cold start Sunday morning, the focus will turn to a
winter storm expected to impact the region Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Light snow across northwest Montana on Monday afternoon
will quickly spread southward Monday night, accompanied by a surge
of arctic air. A combination of snow, gusty northeast winds, and a
sudden decrease in temperatures will likely present several
significant impacts:

* Those traveling across western Montana and north central Idaho
  will likely see road conditions quickly deteriorate with slick
  conditions and potentially reduced visibility in areas of
  blowing snow. Several inches of snow accumulation will be
  possible.

* Sensitive livestock such as newborns and those with outdoor
  interests will also be impacted by both cold temperatures and
  potentially subzero wind chills. Temperatures running 20-25
  degrees below normal will continue into Wednesday before a
  gradual warm up begins.

Most weather models suggest that mainly dry conditions will be
present across the Northern Rockies from Wednesday evening through
the end of next week. Temperatures during this time appear fairly
typical for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low and mid level cloudiness will be evolving over the Northern
Rockies during the next 24 hours. Some snow showers, mainly across
north central Idaho and along the Continental Divide, may temporarily
limit visibility and ceilings near area terminals. Otherwise,
relatively cold air from east of the Divide will be rushing
westward, creating some wind gusts to 25 knots to KGPI and KMSO by
28/0000Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 271122
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
421 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

...VERY COLD WIND CHILL PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

A broad Pacific storm system embedded within northerly flow aloft
will move west of the Northern Rockies today through Saturday,
drawing snow shower activity across the region. The orientation
of this system is such that relatively cold air east of the
Continental Divide will continue to be drawn westward over time. A
drop in temperatures and very cold wind chill will be most evident
along the Divide and near terrain gap features in western Montana,
such as Hellgate Canyon east of Missoula and Badrock Canyon east
of Columbia Falls. Snow showers may create hazardous driving
conditions for a time across the Camas Prairie of Idaho and over
Lost Trail Pass through Saturday.

After a cold start Sunday morning, the focus will turn to a
winter storm expected to impact the region Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Light snow across northwest Montana on Monday afternoon
will quickly spread southward Monday night, accompanied by a surge
of arctic air. A combination of snow, gusty northeast winds, and a
sudden decrease in temperatures will likely present several
significant impacts:

* Those traveling across western Montana and north central Idaho
  will likely see road conditions quickly deteriorate with slick
  conditions and potentially reduced visibility in areas of
  blowing snow. Several inches of snow accumulation will be
  possible.

* Sensitive livestock such as newborns and those with outdoor
  interests will also be impacted by both cold temperatures and
  potentially subzero wind chills. Temperatures running 20-25
  degrees below normal will continue into Wednesday before a
  gradual warm up begins.

Most weather models suggest that mainly dry conditions will be
present across the Northern Rockies from Wednesday evening through
the end of next week. Temperatures during this time appear fairly
typical for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low and mid level cloudiness will be evolving over the Northern
Rockies during the next 24 hours. Some snow showers, mainly across
north central Idaho and along the Continental Divide, may temporarily
limit visibility and ceilings near area terminals. Otherwise,
relatively cold air from east of the Divide will be rushing
westward, creating some wind gusts to 25 knots to KGPI and KMSO by
28/0000Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGHS FOR TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS  WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE TWO...OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH REMAINDER
THE SHORT TERM. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A WARMING TREND FROM COLD SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS IS THE COLDEST MODEL AT THIS POINT
AND HOLDS COLD AIR IN A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND
LINE...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AND NYE VICINITIES. SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
COLD AIR. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATE MID MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS/VIS MAY DEVELOP
OVER RIVER VALLEYS IN CENTRAL ZONES AROUND BILLINGS (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW) WHICH SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. A DISTURBANCE
DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.

FOR KBIL THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG
IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN
STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE CLARKS FORK RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST OF THE
STATE LEE SIDE TROFING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THIS STRATUS
AND FOG INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND SUNRISE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SUB VFR ACTIVITY. ITS NOT A SURE THING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GET INTO BILLINGS BUT WILL ADJUST TAF TO MENTION POSSIBILITY AND
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE MID
MORNING. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 008/021 005/031 015/039 008/010 903/025 015/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B
LVM 027 003/019 903/029 013/038 004/011 909/026 015/038
    2/J 55/J    20/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 028 008/024 004/034 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/040
    0/U 22/J    00/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 026 006/022 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/040
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 026 007/023 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/040
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 025 004/021 004/027 011/036 006/012 903/018 006/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B
SHR 022 004/018 901/027 007/034 007/007 910/018 007/038
    0/U 13/J    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGHS FOR TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS  WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE TWO...OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH REMAINDER
THE SHORT TERM. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A WARMING TREND FROM COLD SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS IS THE COLDEST MODEL AT THIS POINT
AND HOLDS COLD AIR IN A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND
LINE...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AND NYE VICINITIES. SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
COLD AIR. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING OVER WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATE MID MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS/VIS MAY DEVELOP
OVER RIVER VALLEYS IN CENTRAL ZONES AROUND BILLINGS (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW) WHICH SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. A DISTURBANCE
DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.

FOR KBIL THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG
IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE OVER THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN
STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE CLARKS FORK RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST OF THE
STATE LEE SIDE TROFING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THIS STRATUS
AND FOG INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND SUNRISE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SUB VFR ACTIVITY. ITS NOT A SURE THING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GET INTO BILLINGS BUT WILL ADJUST TAF TO MENTION POSSIBILITY AND
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE MID
MORNING. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 008/021 005/031 015/039 008/010 903/025 015/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B
LVM 027 003/019 903/029 013/038 004/011 909/026 015/038
    2/J 55/J    20/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 028 008/024 004/034 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/040
    0/U 22/J    00/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 026 006/022 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/040
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 026 007/023 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/040
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 025 004/021 004/027 011/036 006/012 903/018 006/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B
SHR 022 004/018 901/027 007/034 007/007 910/018 007/038
    0/U 13/J    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 271005
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN
FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND TERMINATES OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED WARMER AND SPREADS
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS. TO THE WEST A WEAK
LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE NORTH
AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER SIDE THESE TWO
CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 271005
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RUN
FROM GREENLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY AND TERMINATES OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AIRMASS MODIFIED WARMER AND SPREADS
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND US HIGH PLAINS. TO THE WEST A WEAK
LONGWAVE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE NORTH
AMERICAN COAST LINE AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIES IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN FLOW ON THE COLDER SIDE THESE TWO
CLASHING AIR-MASSES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP FREEZE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING WAVE OF COLD AIR
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAND
AROUND 18 TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE INTO
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO MOISTURE FEED...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NON-EXISTENT AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND CHILL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES NEXT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A WEAK RIDGE WILL RUN DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDE WEAK CHINOOK WARMING SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WITH COLD SURFACE INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
TROUGH STILL HANGING IN DAY TIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GAH


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. CHANCE OF SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING
THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ECMWF) OR NEARLY
ZONAL WNW (GFS) WITH NO WAVES. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
POINT. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 270957
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
VFR conditions expected tonight with mix of clear skies and SCT-BKN
high clouds as initial moisture from a low pressure system in WA
moves into central/southwest MT. KCTB remains the outlier where
moist southeast (upslope) flow is generating a persistent MVFR
overcast around 1500 ft. Cloud cover across the region will
gradually increase with lowering ceilings starting late Fri morning
as surface cold front moves in from Alberta.  Expect scattered areas
of -SN to develop as the front tracks southward with a mix of
VFR/MVFR conditions.  Winds remaining light across the region
tonight through tomorrow morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  26   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  28   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  18  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  22  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270957
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Cold and somewhat unsettled weather pattern
continues today through Saturday as an upper level trough remains
over the region. Main lobe of shortwave energy is currently moving
south along the WA coast early this morning and will dig SE into
the Great Basin by Saturday. This keeps the bulk of the forcing
well S and W of the forecast area, but weaker embedded energy does
move move through the Northern Rockies today with deformation
axis behind the main trough axis shifting south through the region
Saturday. This will keep the airmass moist with scattered snow
showers becoming more widespread across western and SW portions of
the forecast area later today and tonight, though snowfall should
be very light in most areas with accumulations in excess of an
inch mainly limited to the Mtns. At the surface, a cold airmass
remains in place with a reinforcing surge of cold high pressure
moving south from AB into north central MT later today and tonight
in response to low pressure deepening in the Great Basin. Saturday
night and Sunday, the airmass drys as upper level ridging builds
into the region from the NW. By Sunday afternoon, lee-side
toughing develops along the east slopes of the Rockies, bringing
warmer temperatures to much of north-central MT. Hoenisch

Sunday night through Friday...Heights aloft will begin to drop again
Sunday night ahead of a shortwave trof moving through the northwest
flow aloft. Moisture ahead of this trof will move over the Northern
Rockies Monday and the associated cold front will cross the Canadian
border early in the day. The cold front will move through the zones
during the day and move through the southwest zones by evening.
Widespread precipitation will accompany this front and 2-4 inches of
snow by Tuesday currently looks reasonable across the plains and
southwest valleys, and higher amounts in the mountains. The trof
will be moving east of the zones late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
airmass will be drying and a cold surface airmass will allow for low
overnight temps Tuesday night, single digits or less in many
locations. A high pressure ridge will be building Wednesday through
Thursday. Several disturbances will move move through the ridge
in British Columbia and this will deepen the surface lee trof along
the Rockies and bring a period of brisk winds along the slopes of
the Rockies late Wednesday and Thursday. Other than the winds, high
pressure will generally remain aloft and keep the the airmass dry
and mild through Friday. Temperatures will drop well below normals
Monday night and Tuesday, and some dangerous wind chill values will
be possible. Temps will begin to trend upwards Wednesday and reach
near and above normals again Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
VFR conditions expected tonight with mix of clear skies and SCT-BKN
high clouds as initial moisture from a low pressure system in WA
moves into central/southwest MT. KCTB remains the outlier where
moist southeast (upslope) flow is generating a persistent MVFR
overcast around 1500 ft. Cloud cover across the region will
gradually increase with lowering ceilings starting late Fri morning
as surface cold front moves in from Alberta.  Expect scattered areas
of -SN to develop as the front tracks southward with a mix of
VFR/MVFR conditions.  Winds remaining light across the region
tonight through tomorrow morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   0  18   3 /  20  40  20  10
CTB  16  -2  19   4 /  40  30  10  10
HLN  26   6  26   4 /  20  40  20   0
BZN  28   4  23   1 /  20  40  30  10
WEY  29   0  29  -7 /  30  40  20  10
DLN  30   6  26   0 /  30  40  20  10
HVR  18  -2  19   2 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  22  -1  20   1 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 270542
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Slight
changes to temperatures overnight across the Rocky Mountain Front,
and sky cover in Southwest Montana. Otherwise current forecast
appears on track.  Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
VFR conditions expected tonight with mix of clear skies and SCT-BKN
high clouds as initial moisture from a low pressure system in WA
moves into central/southwest MT. KCTB remains the outlier where
moist southeast (upslope) flow is generating a persistent MVFR
overcast around 1500 ft. Cloud cover across the region will
gradually increase with lowering ceilings starting late Fri morning
as surface cold front moves in from Alberta.  Expect scattered areas
of -SN to develop as the front tracks southward with a mix of
VFR/MVFR conditions.  Winds remaining light across the region
tonight through tomorrow morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 270542
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Slight
changes to temperatures overnight across the Rocky Mountain Front,
and sky cover in Southwest Montana. Otherwise current forecast
appears on track.  Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
VFR conditions expected tonight with mix of clear skies and SCT-BKN
high clouds as initial moisture from a low pressure system in WA
moves into central/southwest MT. KCTB remains the outlier where
moist southeast (upslope) flow is generating a persistent MVFR
overcast around 1500 ft. Cloud cover across the region will
gradually increase with lowering ceilings starting late Fri morning
as surface cold front moves in from Alberta.  Expect scattered areas
of -SN to develop as the front tracks southward with a mix of
VFR/MVFR conditions.  Winds remaining light across the region
tonight through tomorrow morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 270450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Slight
changes to temperatures overnight across the Rocky Mountain Front,
and sky cover in Southwest Montana. Otherwise current forecast
appears on track.  Suk



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Mostly clear skies across the region this aftn, with a few areas of
scattered clouds near some of the central and southwest mountain
ranges.  Only exception is KCTB, where moist southeast (upslope)
flow is generating a persistent MVFR overcast at 1500 ft.  Will keep
the low clouds at KCTB into the overnight hours, but expect
remaining TAF sites to be mostly clear with light winds through
mid-aftn tomorrow.  Next weather system arrives Fri eve, bringing
increasing mid-level cloud decks, but looks like areas of -SN will
be limited to locations along/south of a KHLN-to-KLWT line.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 270450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
950 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Slight
changes to temperatures overnight across the Rocky Mountain Front,
and sky cover in Southwest Montana. Otherwise current forecast
appears on track.  Suk



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Mostly clear skies across the region this aftn, with a few areas of
scattered clouds near some of the central and southwest mountain
ranges.  Only exception is KCTB, where moist southeast (upslope)
flow is generating a persistent MVFR overcast at 1500 ft.  Will keep
the low clouds at KCTB into the overnight hours, but expect
remaining TAF sites to be mostly clear with light winds through
mid-aftn tomorrow.  Next weather system arrives Fri eve, bringing
increasing mid-level cloud decks, but looks like areas of -SN will
be limited to locations along/south of a KHLN-to-KLWT line.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270409
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WAS CAUSING THE STRATUS TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE PER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS SHOWED THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON THE ABOVE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLAINS WERE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT 04Z.
ADJUSTED A FEW MIN TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNDER THE STRATUS AS LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH THE CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER...850 MB
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -16 DEGREES C...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...THE
ADDITION OF CLEAR SKIES WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUITE A
BIT. WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ABOVE 10 MPH. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPOTTY AREAS POSSIBLY MEETING WIND CHILL
CRITERIA. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AREA WITH 10 MPH WINDS
FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME PERIOD TO SUPPORT ISSUING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...VORTICITY SEEN SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING WILL BROADEN INTO A SPLIT TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS SE THROUGH SAT. SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND ANOTHER FRONT WITH FRONTOGENESIS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME UPSLOPE AGAIN.
MODELS SHOWED LIGHT QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
AREAS W OF KBIL. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST MODELS...POINTING TOWARD HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THEREFORE...MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MORNING UPDATE.

HIGHS TODAY REMAIN QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS ONLY INTO MID TEENS
SO FAR. CLOUD COVER HAS HUNG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT IS
BREAKING UP AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...BUT STILL WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD SNOW TOWARDS KBIL AND KSHR...WHILE
BEST ENERGY REMAINS TO THE WEST...DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM KBIL TO KSHR...THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERLY SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW EVENT AT THIS TIME...IT MAY NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A STRENGTHENING OF THE DISTURBANCE TO MAKE
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT. EASTERLY FLOW DOES PREVAIL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...WITH RESPECTABLY MOIST AND DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TO AID OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ECMWF AND NAM STILL
PRODUCE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF OVER OUR AREA...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF FO NOT SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS
DEEP LOW IMPACTS THE SW CONUS AND WE AWAIT ENERGY FROM NW CANADA.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LIGHT WIND DAY BUT ON MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE/PREFRONTAL WINDS...IE MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN WE REALLY DO NOT HAVE
MUCH LOWER ELEVATION SNOW COVER HAVE RAISED EXPECTED TEMPS A
LITTLE...CLOSER TO ANTICIPATED 850MB MIX DOWNS. THINGS THEN GET
INTERESTING IN A HURRY.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STRONG
CANADIAN CLIPPER AND FROPA WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF 500MB HEIGHTS AT 144 HRS. SO
THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE TO BE HAD...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME
MODEL SHIFTS YET TO OCCUR OVER THE COMING DAYS GIVEN THE NATURE
OF SUCH HIGH AMPLITUDE WX PATTERNS.

STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY
JANUARY...WITH 850MB TEMPS TO -20C OR COLDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN ARCTIC
REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA/YUKON BEFORE ITS RAPID SOUTHWARD PLUNGE.
HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AM AT THIS TIME EXPECTING SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS TO OCCUR...
NOT AN EASY FEAT FOR EARLY MARCH. AS FOR PCPN...OUR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOWFALL BY THE TRACK OF THIS
TROF AND UPSLOPE WINDS. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE JUST AN
OROGRAPHIC EVENT THOUGH AS LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A WEAK
700MB LOW TRACKING TO OUR SW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. FOR NOW HAVE RAISED POPS
ANOTHER NOTCH ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS WHERE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR EAST
WILL LIKELY BE WINDS AND COLD TEMPS RATHER THAN SNOWFALL.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS...DRY WX
AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LOWER STRATUS ACROSS THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AREAS INCLUDING KLVM...ALTHOUGH THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 903/023 008/021 004/033 018/041 010/014 902/023 012/037
    00/B    22/S    00/U    01/U    55/S    21/B    11/N
LVM 901/025 003/020 904/032 013/039 007/016 911/023 006/037
    02/J    56/S    20/U    01/B    66/S    21/B    11/N
HDN 903/026 009/024 004/033 011/042 011/016 904/021 007/038
    00/B    22/S    00/U    00/U    45/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 905/024 007/022 006/030 013/040 010/015 901/022 008/036
    00/U    11/E    01/U    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 905/024 008/024 003/031 009/042 012/017 901/018 004/037
    00/U    11/E    00/U    00/U    24/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 908/023 004/022 004/029 011/040 009/015 902/018 004/033
    00/U    00/B    11/B    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
SHR 911/021 006/018 902/026 005/037 010/014 904/016 001/033
    00/U    13/S    00/U    00/U    36/S    31/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270409
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WAS CAUSING THE STRATUS TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE PER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS SHOWED THE UPSLOPE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON THE ABOVE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLAINS WERE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT 04Z.
ADJUSTED A FEW MIN TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNDER THE STRATUS AS LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH THE CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER...850 MB
TEMPERATURES -12 TO -16 DEGREES C...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...THE
ADDITION OF CLEAR SKIES WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUITE A
BIT. WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ABOVE 10 MPH. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPOTTY AREAS POSSIBLY MEETING WIND CHILL
CRITERIA. NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AREA WITH 10 MPH WINDS
FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME PERIOD TO SUPPORT ISSUING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...VORTICITY SEEN SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING WILL BROADEN INTO A SPLIT TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS SE THROUGH SAT. SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND ANOTHER FRONT WITH FRONTOGENESIS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME UPSLOPE AGAIN.
MODELS SHOWED LIGHT QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
AREAS W OF KBIL. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST MODELS...POINTING TOWARD HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THEREFORE...MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MORNING UPDATE.

HIGHS TODAY REMAIN QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS ONLY INTO MID TEENS
SO FAR. CLOUD COVER HAS HUNG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT IS
BREAKING UP AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...BUT STILL WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD SNOW TOWARDS KBIL AND KSHR...WHILE
BEST ENERGY REMAINS TO THE WEST...DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM KBIL TO KSHR...THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERLY SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW EVENT AT THIS TIME...IT MAY NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A STRENGTHENING OF THE DISTURBANCE TO MAKE
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT. EASTERLY FLOW DOES PREVAIL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...WITH RESPECTABLY MOIST AND DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TO AID OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ECMWF AND NAM STILL
PRODUCE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF OVER OUR AREA...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF FO NOT SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS
DEEP LOW IMPACTS THE SW CONUS AND WE AWAIT ENERGY FROM NW CANADA.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LIGHT WIND DAY BUT ON MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE/PREFRONTAL WINDS...IE MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN WE REALLY DO NOT HAVE
MUCH LOWER ELEVATION SNOW COVER HAVE RAISED EXPECTED TEMPS A
LITTLE...CLOSER TO ANTICIPATED 850MB MIX DOWNS. THINGS THEN GET
INTERESTING IN A HURRY.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STRONG
CANADIAN CLIPPER AND FROPA WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF 500MB HEIGHTS AT 144 HRS. SO
THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE TO BE HAD...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME
MODEL SHIFTS YET TO OCCUR OVER THE COMING DAYS GIVEN THE NATURE
OF SUCH HIGH AMPLITUDE WX PATTERNS.

STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY
JANUARY...WITH 850MB TEMPS TO -20C OR COLDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN ARCTIC
REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA/YUKON BEFORE ITS RAPID SOUTHWARD PLUNGE.
HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AM AT THIS TIME EXPECTING SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS TO OCCUR...
NOT AN EASY FEAT FOR EARLY MARCH. AS FOR PCPN...OUR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOWFALL BY THE TRACK OF THIS
TROF AND UPSLOPE WINDS. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE JUST AN
OROGRAPHIC EVENT THOUGH AS LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A WEAK
700MB LOW TRACKING TO OUR SW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. FOR NOW HAVE RAISED POPS
ANOTHER NOTCH ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS WHERE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR EAST
WILL LIKELY BE WINDS AND COLD TEMPS RATHER THAN SNOWFALL.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS...DRY WX
AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LOWER STRATUS ACROSS THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AREAS INCLUDING KLVM...ALTHOUGH THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 903/023 008/021 004/033 018/041 010/014 902/023 012/037
    00/B    22/S    00/U    01/U    55/S    21/B    11/N
LVM 901/025 003/020 904/032 013/039 007/016 911/023 006/037
    02/J    56/S    20/U    01/B    66/S    21/B    11/N
HDN 903/026 009/024 004/033 011/042 011/016 904/021 007/038
    00/B    22/S    00/U    00/U    45/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 905/024 007/022 006/030 013/040 010/015 901/022 008/036
    00/U    11/E    01/U    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 905/024 008/024 003/031 009/042 012/017 901/018 004/037
    00/U    11/E    00/U    00/U    24/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 908/023 004/022 004/029 011/040 009/015 902/018 004/033
    00/U    00/B    11/B    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
SHR 911/021 006/018 902/026 005/037 010/014 904/016 001/033
    00/U    13/S    00/U    00/U    36/S    31/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 270307
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
807 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

EVENING UPDATE... MOST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OUT TO GENERATE A FROSTBITE
THREAT FROM WIND CHILLS. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN PLACED UP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270307
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
807 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

EVENING UPDATE... MOST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OUT TO GENERATE A FROSTBITE
THREAT FROM WIND CHILLS. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN PLACED UP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 262337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Mostly clear skies across the region this aftn, with a few areas of
scattered clouds near some of the central and southwest mountain
ranges.  Only exception is KCTB, where moist southeast (upslope)
flow is generating a persistent MVFR overcast at 1500 ft.  Will keep
the low clouds at KCTB into the overnight hours, but expect
remaining TAF sites to be mostly clear with light winds through
mid-aftn tomorrow.  Next weather system arrives Fri eve, bringing
increasing mid-level cloud decks, but looks like areas of -SN will
be limited to locations along/south of a KHLN-to-KLWT line.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 262337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Mostly clear skies across the region this aftn, with a few areas of
scattered clouds near some of the central and southwest mountain
ranges.  Only exception is KCTB, where moist southeast (upslope)
flow is generating a persistent MVFR overcast at 1500 ft.  Will keep
the low clouds at KCTB into the overnight hours, but expect
remaining TAF sites to be mostly clear with light winds through
mid-aftn tomorrow.  Next weather system arrives Fri eve, bringing
increasing mid-level cloud decks, but looks like areas of -SN will
be limited to locations along/south of a KHLN-to-KLWT line.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262212
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST MODELS...POINTING TOWARD HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THEREFORE...MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MORNING UPDATE.

HIGHS TODAY REMAIN QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS ONLY INTO MID TEENS
SO FAR. CLOUD COVER HAS HUNG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT IS
BREAKING UP AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...BUT STILL WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD SNOW TOWARDS KBIL AND KSHR...WHILE
BEST ENERGY REMAINS TO THE WEST...DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM KBIL TO KSHR...THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERLY SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW EVENT AT THIS TIME...IT MAY NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A STRENGTHENING OF THE DISTURBANCE TO MAKE
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT. EASTERLY FLOW DOES PREVAIL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...WITH RESPECTABLY MOIST AND DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TO AID OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ECMWF AND NAM STILL
PRODUCE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF OVER OUR AREA...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF FO NOT SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS
DEEP LOW IMPACTS THE SW CONUS AND WE AWAIT ENERGY FROM NW CANADA.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LIGHT WIND DAY BUT ON MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE/PREFRONTAL WINDS...IE MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN WE REALLY DO NOT HAVE
MUCH LOWER ELEVATION SNOW COVER HAVE RAISED EXPECTED TEMPS A
LITTLE...CLOSER TO ANTICIPATED 850MB MIX DOWNS. THINGS THEN GET
INTERESTING IN A HURRY.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STRONG
CANADIAN CLIPPER AND FROPA WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF 500MB HEIGHTS AT 144 HRS. SO
THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE TO BE HAD...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME
MODEL SHIFTS YET TO OCCUR OVER THE COMING DAYS GIVEN THE NATURE
OF SUCH HIGH AMPLITUDE WX PATTERNS.

STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY
JANUARY...WITH 850MB TEMPS TO -20C OR COLDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN ARCTIC
REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA/YUKON BEFORE ITS RAPID SOUTHWARD PLUNGE.
HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AM AT THIS TIME EXPECTING SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS TO OCCUR...
NOT AN EASY FEAT FOR EARLY MARCH. AS FOR PCPN...OUR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOWFALL BY THE TRACK OF THIS
TROF AND UPSLOPE WINDS. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE JUST AN
OROGRAPHIC EVENT THOUGH AS LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A WEAK
700MB LOW TRACKING TO OUR SW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. FOR NOW HAVE RAISED POPS
ANOTHER NOTCH ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS WHERE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR EAST
WILL LIKELY BE WINDS AND COLD TEMPS RATHER THAN SNOWFALL.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS...DRY WX
AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXIST ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON...FROM K3HT TO KLVM-KBIL-KSHR...BUT THESE AREAS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS BY LATE FRIDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR AND SOME MTN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 903/023 008/021 004/033 018/041 010/014 902/023 012/037
    00/B    22/S    00/U    01/U    55/S    21/B    11/N
LVM 901/025 003/020 904/032 013/039 007/016 911/023 006/037
    02/J    56/S    20/U    01/B    66/S    21/B    11/N
HDN 903/026 009/024 004/033 011/042 011/016 904/021 007/038
    00/B    22/S    00/U    00/U    45/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 905/024 007/022 006/030 013/040 010/015 901/022 008/036
    00/U    11/E    01/U    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 905/024 008/024 003/031 009/042 012/017 901/018 004/037
    00/U    11/E    00/U    00/U    24/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 908/023 004/022 004/029 011/040 009/015 902/018 004/033
    00/U    00/B    11/B    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
SHR 906/021 006/018 902/026 005/037 010/014 904/016 001/033
    00/U    13/S    00/U    00/U    36/S    31/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262212
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST MODELS...POINTING TOWARD HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THEREFORE...MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MORNING UPDATE.

HIGHS TODAY REMAIN QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS ONLY INTO MID TEENS
SO FAR. CLOUD COVER HAS HUNG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT IS
BREAKING UP AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...BUT STILL WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD SNOW TOWARDS KBIL AND KSHR...WHILE
BEST ENERGY REMAINS TO THE WEST...DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM KBIL TO KSHR...THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERLY SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW EVENT AT THIS TIME...IT MAY NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A STRENGTHENING OF THE DISTURBANCE TO MAKE
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT. EASTERLY FLOW DOES PREVAIL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...WITH RESPECTABLY MOIST AND DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TO AID OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ECMWF AND NAM STILL
PRODUCE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF OVER OUR AREA...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF FO NOT SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS
DEEP LOW IMPACTS THE SW CONUS AND WE AWAIT ENERGY FROM NW CANADA.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LIGHT WIND DAY BUT ON MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE/PREFRONTAL WINDS...IE MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN WE REALLY DO NOT HAVE
MUCH LOWER ELEVATION SNOW COVER HAVE RAISED EXPECTED TEMPS A
LITTLE...CLOSER TO ANTICIPATED 850MB MIX DOWNS. THINGS THEN GET
INTERESTING IN A HURRY.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STRONG
CANADIAN CLIPPER AND FROPA WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF 500MB HEIGHTS AT 144 HRS. SO
THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE TO BE HAD...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME
MODEL SHIFTS YET TO OCCUR OVER THE COMING DAYS GIVEN THE NATURE
OF SUCH HIGH AMPLITUDE WX PATTERNS.

STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY
JANUARY...WITH 850MB TEMPS TO -20C OR COLDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN ARCTIC
REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA/YUKON BEFORE ITS RAPID SOUTHWARD PLUNGE.
HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AM AT THIS TIME EXPECTING SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS TO OCCUR...
NOT AN EASY FEAT FOR EARLY MARCH. AS FOR PCPN...OUR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOWFALL BY THE TRACK OF THIS
TROF AND UPSLOPE WINDS. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE JUST AN
OROGRAPHIC EVENT THOUGH AS LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A WEAK
700MB LOW TRACKING TO OUR SW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. FOR NOW HAVE RAISED POPS
ANOTHER NOTCH ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS WHERE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR EAST
WILL LIKELY BE WINDS AND COLD TEMPS RATHER THAN SNOWFALL.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS...DRY WX
AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXIST ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON...FROM K3HT TO KLVM-KBIL-KSHR...BUT THESE AREAS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS BY LATE FRIDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR AND SOME MTN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 903/023 008/021 004/033 018/041 010/014 902/023 012/037
    00/B    22/S    00/U    01/U    55/S    21/B    11/N
LVM 901/025 003/020 904/032 013/039 007/016 911/023 006/037
    02/J    56/S    20/U    01/B    66/S    21/B    11/N
HDN 903/026 009/024 004/033 011/042 011/016 904/021 007/038
    00/B    22/S    00/U    00/U    45/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 905/024 007/022 006/030 013/040 010/015 901/022 008/036
    00/U    11/E    01/U    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 905/024 008/024 003/031 009/042 012/017 901/018 004/037
    00/U    11/E    00/U    00/U    24/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 908/023 004/022 004/029 011/040 009/015 902/018 004/033
    00/U    00/B    11/B    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
SHR 906/021 006/018 902/026 005/037 010/014 904/016 001/033
    00/U    13/S    00/U    00/U    36/S    31/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262212
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST MODELS...POINTING TOWARD HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THEREFORE...MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MORNING UPDATE.

HIGHS TODAY REMAIN QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS ONLY INTO MID TEENS
SO FAR. CLOUD COVER HAS HUNG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT IS
BREAKING UP AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE COOLED OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE IN MOST
AREAS...BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...BUT STILL WELL
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD SNOW TOWARDS KBIL AND KSHR...WHILE
BEST ENERGY REMAINS TO THE WEST...DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM KBIL TO KSHR...THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERLY SLOPES. ALTHOUGH THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW EVENT AT THIS TIME...IT MAY NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A STRENGTHENING OF THE DISTURBANCE TO MAKE
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT. EASTERLY FLOW DOES PREVAIL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...WITH RESPECTABLY MOIST AND DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER TO AID OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ECMWF AND NAM STILL
PRODUCE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF OVER OUR AREA...BUT WOULD BE
SURPRISED IF FO NOT SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS
DEEP LOW IMPACTS THE SW CONUS AND WE AWAIT ENERGY FROM NW CANADA.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LIGHT WIND DAY BUT ON MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE/PREFRONTAL WINDS...IE MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN WE REALLY DO NOT HAVE
MUCH LOWER ELEVATION SNOW COVER HAVE RAISED EXPECTED TEMPS A
LITTLE...CLOSER TO ANTICIPATED 850MB MIX DOWNS. THINGS THEN GET
INTERESTING IN A HURRY.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STRONG
CANADIAN CLIPPER AND FROPA WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF 500MB HEIGHTS AT 144 HRS. SO
THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE TO BE HAD...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME
MODEL SHIFTS YET TO OCCUR OVER THE COMING DAYS GIVEN THE NATURE
OF SUCH HIGH AMPLITUDE WX PATTERNS.

STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY
JANUARY...WITH 850MB TEMPS TO -20C OR COLDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN ARCTIC
REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA/YUKON BEFORE ITS RAPID SOUTHWARD PLUNGE.
HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AM AT THIS TIME EXPECTING SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS TO OCCUR...
NOT AN EASY FEAT FOR EARLY MARCH. AS FOR PCPN...OUR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOWFALL BY THE TRACK OF THIS
TROF AND UPSLOPE WINDS. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE JUST AN
OROGRAPHIC EVENT THOUGH AS LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A WEAK
700MB LOW TRACKING TO OUR SW AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL QG
FORCING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. FOR NOW HAVE RAISED POPS
ANOTHER NOTCH ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS WHERE THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR EAST
WILL LIKELY BE WINDS AND COLD TEMPS RATHER THAN SNOWFALL.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS...DRY WX
AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXIST ALONG AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON...FROM K3HT TO KLVM-KBIL-KSHR...BUT THESE AREAS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS BY LATE FRIDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR AND SOME MTN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 903/023 008/021 004/033 018/041 010/014 902/023 012/037
    00/B    22/S    00/U    01/U    55/S    21/B    11/N
LVM 901/025 003/020 904/032 013/039 007/016 911/023 006/037
    02/J    56/S    20/U    01/B    66/S    21/B    11/N
HDN 903/026 009/024 004/033 011/042 011/016 904/021 007/038
    00/B    22/S    00/U    00/U    45/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 905/024 007/022 006/030 013/040 010/015 901/022 008/036
    00/U    11/E    01/U    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 905/024 008/024 003/031 009/042 012/017 901/018 004/037
    00/U    11/E    00/U    00/U    24/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 908/023 004/022 004/029 011/040 009/015 902/018 004/033
    00/U    00/B    11/B    00/U    22/S    11/B    11/B
SHR 906/021 006/018 902/026 005/037 010/014 904/016 001/033
    00/U    13/S    00/U    00/U    36/S    31/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 262202
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
Light snow continues to fall over portions of MT. However...it is
very light and mostly just heavy flurries...with little/no
additional snow accumulations expected at the airports. Low clouds
will continue to affect the region through mid afternoon
though...and mountains/passes will be obscured. It clears out a bit
overnight with VFR expected...but another cold front moves south
through the region on Friday. Expect a wind shift to the north
Friday morning over North Central MT...with more light snow
developing Friday afternoon over portions of N Central MT. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 262202
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
Light snow continues to fall over portions of MT. However...it is
very light and mostly just heavy flurries...with little/no
additional snow accumulations expected at the airports. Low clouds
will continue to affect the region through mid afternoon
though...and mountains/passes will be obscured. It clears out a bit
overnight with VFR expected...but another cold front moves south
through the region on Friday. Expect a wind shift to the north
Friday morning over North Central MT...with more light snow
developing Friday afternoon over portions of N Central MT. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 262202
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
Light snow continues to fall over portions of MT. However...it is
very light and mostly just heavy flurries...with little/no
additional snow accumulations expected at the airports. Low clouds
will continue to affect the region through mid afternoon
though...and mountains/passes will be obscured. It clears out a bit
overnight with VFR expected...but another cold front moves south
through the region on Friday. Expect a wind shift to the north
Friday morning over North Central MT...with more light snow
developing Friday afternoon over portions of N Central MT. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 262202
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
Light snow continues to fall over portions of MT. However...it is
very light and mostly just heavy flurries...with little/no
additional snow accumulations expected at the airports. Low clouds
will continue to affect the region through mid afternoon
though...and mountains/passes will be obscured. It clears out a bit
overnight with VFR expected...but another cold front moves south
through the region on Friday. Expect a wind shift to the north
Friday morning over North Central MT...with more light snow
developing Friday afternoon over portions of N Central MT. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 262134
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
OCCUPYING EASTERN CANADA AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREAD TO THE
WEST AS FAR AS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS TEMPERATURES FELL WELL BELOW ZERO IN
MOST PLACES LAST NIGHT FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. WITH
HIGHS TODAY LIMITED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
FOR NOW THE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RANGE
IN THE EAST AND AROUND 5-10KTS IN THE WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW...NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY.
THE UPDATE SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SITUATION. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY.
YET MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL...BY AROUND
10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. NEMONT
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN WAVE THAT WILL SEND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...BY ABOUT ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES. THE OTHER EFFECT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE SPREADING MID TO LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. SCT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLOMBIA HELPS TO ENERGIZE A LARGE TROUGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN
CONUS. WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE -20C TO -25C ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.

THEN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVER GAGE AT SIDNEY ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER APPEARED TO READ
A RISE IN THE RIVER THIS MORNING. BUT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE GAGE MAY HAVE MALFUNCTIONED TEMPORARILY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 262113
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...VERY COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

This weekend an arctic front will impact the Northern Rockies
causing very cold overnight temperatures. Several nights this
weekend and early next week will have wind chills in the teens
below zero from Butte to Georgetown Lake and north through
Garrison Junction and farther north over Marias Pass and into
Columbia Falls. This could be a very difficult time for newborn
livestock near the Continental Divide in Montana.

Tomorrow the first arctic arrives and will mainly bring wind and
cold with light snow. Most areas are expected to get less than an
inch of snow Friday and Saturday with this system, though some
locally higher amounts are possible in the mountains.

Monday and Tuesday another arctic front pushes west across the
divide. This time it has more moisture to work with, which is a
recent change in the models. PoPs were raised to account for this,
and it raises the possibility of significant travel impacts with
snow accumulating on roadways.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clouds and a few snow showers will persist this evening along the
Continental Divide near KBTM and KSMN as well as north central
Idaho which could limit visibility, lower ceilings, and obscure
terrain at times. Northerly and easterly surface winds are
expected to increase with another arctic air push from east of
the Divide by midday Friday with gusty winds affecting western MT
terminals especially at KMSO. /ss

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 262113
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...VERY COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

This weekend an arctic front will impact the Northern Rockies
causing very cold overnight temperatures. Several nights this
weekend and early next week will have wind chills in the teens
below zero from Butte to Georgetown Lake and north through
Garrison Junction and farther north over Marias Pass and into
Columbia Falls. This could be a very difficult time for newborn
livestock near the Continental Divide in Montana.

Tomorrow the first arctic arrives and will mainly bring wind and
cold with light snow. Most areas are expected to get less than an
inch of snow Friday and Saturday with this system, though some
locally higher amounts are possible in the mountains.

Monday and Tuesday another arctic front pushes west across the
divide. This time it has more moisture to work with, which is a
recent change in the models. PoPs were raised to account for this,
and it raises the possibility of significant travel impacts with
snow accumulating on roadways.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clouds and a few snow showers will persist this evening along the
Continental Divide near KBTM and KSMN as well as north central
Idaho which could limit visibility, lower ceilings, and obscure
terrain at times. Northerly and easterly surface winds are
expected to increase with another arctic air push from east of
the Divide by midday Friday with gusty winds affecting western MT
terminals especially at KMSO. /ss

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




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