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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 232145
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
345 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE STRONG PACIFIC FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOWING THIS SUBSIDENCE AS WELL AS SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT AS
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ELIMINATE SHOWER CHANCES EXCEPT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OVER AND THE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
HOWEVER BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT
PLACING A WARM FRONT ACROS THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS
PUT A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX EXCEPT FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WHERE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE
WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE WETTER AND COLDER ECMWF. IN
ADDITION...MODEL DETAILS HAVE VARIED FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES. HOWEVER...THE NEW ECMWF
HAS COME IN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHOWING A WARMER
AND DRIER WEEKEND SOLUTION. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD
A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS.

A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH MON. THE
MODELS CONTINUED TO CUTOFF A LOW WELL TO THE S OF THE REGION AND
ROTATE IT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MON. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH WHICH
BRINGS A SURFACE LOW INTO S MT ON SAT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WAS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT ON
SAT MORNING...WHILE OTHER PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS.
SE MT WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SCALED BACK
POPS OVER THE E BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTED BY
CAPES ON THE GFS. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES ON SAT...ESPECIALLY
FROM KBIL E. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT
NIGHT SUPPORTING THE INHERITED LIKELY POPS. THE WARM 850 MB
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT FROM KBIL W BASED
ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS E DURING SUN WHICH WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DECREASE OVER THE W. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED A HALF INCH OVER SE MT. NUDGED TEMPERATURES
HIGHER ON SUN AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
W TO E SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WEAKENS OVER
THE AREA. DEFORMATION OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY FOR WED FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE PATTERN. MON WILL BE A COOLER DAY BUT THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND FOR TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM KBIL W ON THU WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THU. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/062 040/063 039/061 042/051 035/054 036/060 039/063
    12/W    22/W    64/T    66/W    32/W    22/W    11/U
LVM 036/055 034/063 035/059 039/055 034/055 034/064 036/067
    12/W    23/W    66/T    65/W    32/W    22/W    11/U
HDN 036/061 038/063 037/067 037/051 032/055 032/060 031/064
    11/B    22/W    44/T    66/W    42/W    22/W    11/U
MLS 037/062 039/061 038/065 040/048 032/054 032/055 034/063
    11/N    21/B    65/T    77/W    74/W    32/W    11/U
4BQ 034/060 037/058 038/071 041/051 032/054 032/054 031/062
    11/N    11/B    34/T    77/W    64/W    32/W    11/U
BHK 033/058 038/060 036/058 036/046 029/049 028/051 030/056
    11/N    11/B    65/T    67/W    75/W    32/W    11/U
SHR 032/060 035/065 039/068 039/050 034/052 033/057 032/063
    21/B    22/W    43/T    66/W    43/W    22/W    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTFX 232035
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
235 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  59  35  58 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  36  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  30  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  40  40  50  60
DLN  32  56  35  57 /  30  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM
MDT this evening Eastern Glacier... Eastern Pondera...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov




000
FXUS65 KTFX 232035
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
235 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Strong and gusty west winds continue
across most of the forecast area through this evening and a high
wind warning will remain in effect over portions of North Central
Montana. A chance of showers will develop this afternoon, mainly
over Southwest Montana. Precipitation coverage will be scattered
with better chances over the mountains as westerly flow brings
drying to the plains and valleys. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region Thursday before the next trough moves towards the
region later Thursday. A chance for scattered afternoon showers
over the Continental divide Friday becomes more widespread Friday
night as increasing moisture and southwest flow develop over
Central Montana.

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively
mild so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday
night and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress
eastward into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of
showers through the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model
solutions diverge for early next week but the overall consensus is
that a high amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far
western USA. GFS model progresses this feature inland over the
Rockies by Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the
west coast and places Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft.
Ensemble guidance appears to support the gradual inland
progression of the upper ridge so have trended the forecast toward
a warmer and drier solution for Monday through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  59  35  58 /   0  20  10  20
CTB  30  57  32  56 /   0  20  10  20
HLN  36  60  36  58 /  10  30  20  50
BZN  31  59  34  60 /  30  40  30  50
WEY  25  48  31  50 /  40  40  50  60
DLN  32  56  35  57 /  30  40  40  60
HVR  31  62  34  64 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  29  57  32  57 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM
MDT this evening Eastern Glacier... Eastern Pondera...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 232030
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH JUTS DOWN FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN A SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN. FARTHER WEST... A WEAK RIDGE RUNS UP
THE COAST OF THE US AND CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEARING SEA.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... COOL AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE BUMPED OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE COASTAL RIDGE MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT... A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH A WARM
FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE. WARM FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS. THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND BEGIN PUMPING MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOME OF THIS MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CANADA.

FRIDAY... THE NEW RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AND WARM THE REGION.
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE THE MID ATMOSPHERE AND
PREVENT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
THE TROUGH OFF THE US SHORE WILL MOVE INLAND AND SHOULD BE PUMPING
A LOT OF COOLER AIR AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AROUND ITS EDGES INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SHOW UP AS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SO... CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESTABILIZE AT THIS POINT. GAH


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVE WARMED A BIT WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED MENTION OF SNOW IN MOST PLACES. SOME ELEVATED COOL SPOTS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW OR MIX. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE COOL MODEL OF LATE BUT NOW WARMED UP THINGS WITH
0*C 850 MB ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. QPF/S LOOK PRETTY GOOD
FOR MOST PLACES WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH BY MONDAY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SIDNEY AREA BY EVENING. EXPECT
PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK-UP THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 232030
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH JUTS DOWN FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN A SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN. FARTHER WEST... A WEAK RIDGE RUNS UP
THE COAST OF THE US AND CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEARING SEA.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... COOL AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE BUMPED OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE COASTAL RIDGE MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT... A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH A WARM
FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE. WARM FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS. THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND BEGIN PUMPING MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOME OF THIS MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CANADA.

FRIDAY... THE NEW RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AND WARM THE REGION.
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE THE MID ATMOSPHERE AND
PREVENT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
THE TROUGH OFF THE US SHORE WILL MOVE INLAND AND SHOULD BE PUMPING
A LOT OF COOLER AIR AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AROUND ITS EDGES INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SHOW UP AS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SO... CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESTABILIZE AT THIS POINT. GAH


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVE WARMED A BIT WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED MENTION OF SNOW IN MOST PLACES. SOME ELEVATED COOL SPOTS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW OR MIX. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE COOL MODEL OF LATE BUT NOW WARMED UP THINGS WITH
0*C 850 MB ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. QPF/S LOOK PRETTY GOOD
FOR MOST PLACES WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH BY MONDAY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SIDNEY AREA BY EVENING. EXPECT
PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK-UP THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 232030
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH JUTS DOWN FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN A SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN. FARTHER WEST... A WEAK RIDGE RUNS UP
THE COAST OF THE US AND CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEARING SEA.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... COOL AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE BUMPED OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE COASTAL RIDGE MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT... A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH A WARM
FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE. WARM FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS. THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND BEGIN PUMPING MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOME OF THIS MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CANADA.

FRIDAY... THE NEW RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AND WARM THE REGION.
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE THE MID ATMOSPHERE AND
PREVENT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
THE TROUGH OFF THE US SHORE WILL MOVE INLAND AND SHOULD BE PUMPING
A LOT OF COOLER AIR AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AROUND ITS EDGES INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SHOW UP AS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SO... CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESTABILIZE AT THIS POINT. GAH


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVE WARMED A BIT WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED MENTION OF SNOW IN MOST PLACES. SOME ELEVATED COOL SPOTS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW OR MIX. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE COOL MODEL OF LATE BUT NOW WARMED UP THINGS WITH
0*C 850 MB ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. QPF/S LOOK PRETTY GOOD
FOR MOST PLACES WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH BY MONDAY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SIDNEY AREA BY EVENING. EXPECT
PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK-UP THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 232030
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH JUTS DOWN FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN A SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN. FARTHER WEST... A WEAK RIDGE RUNS UP
THE COAST OF THE US AND CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEARING SEA.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... COOL AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE BUMPED OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE COASTAL RIDGE MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT... A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH A WARM
FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE. WARM FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCAL POINT
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS. THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND BEGIN PUMPING MOISTURE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOME OF THIS MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CANADA.

FRIDAY... THE NEW RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AND WARM THE REGION.
THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE THE MID ATMOSPHERE AND
PREVENT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
THE TROUGH OFF THE US SHORE WILL MOVE INLAND AND SHOULD BE PUMPING
A LOT OF COOLER AIR AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AROUND ITS EDGES INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL SHOW UP AS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SO... CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DESTABILIZE AT THIS POINT. GAH


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVE WARMED A BIT WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED MENTION OF SNOW IN MOST PLACES. SOME ELEVATED COOL SPOTS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE A LITTLE SNOW OR MIX. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE COOL MODEL OF LATE BUT NOW WARMED UP THINGS WITH
0*C 850 MB ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. QPF/S LOOK PRETTY GOOD
FOR MOST PLACES WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH BY MONDAY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SIDNEY AREA BY EVENING. EXPECT
PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK-UP THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 232027
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
227 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...Very unstable conditions have led to numerous rain
and snow showers across north-central Idaho into western Montana
this afternoon. There was a report of snow mixed with graupel in
Columbia Falls earlier, so graupel couldn`t be ruled out. Lookout
Pass has been receiving snow showers all day, but road surfaces
are warm so the only impact would be periodic reductions in
visibility and slush. An influx of slightly stronger winds in the
mid-level region of the atmosphere will move through southwest
Montana this afternoon and early evening. This will bring the
potential for gusty winds between 30 to 40 mph especially along
the I-90 corridor from Garrison Junction to Butte, along State
Highway 141 north of Avon and at MacDonald Pass on US-2. Have
introduced the chance for patchy fog in a few valleys of northwest
Montana. There could be just enough thinning of the clouds to
allow for some fog or stratus to develop, but confidence is low.

An upper level ridge moves through Thursday morning, but will not
bring quiet weather. There will be an above normal chance for
precipitation due to an influx of Pacific moisture moving through
this ridge. The best timing for widespread rainfall across central
Idaho will be Thursday morning as the leading upper level wave
moves through. Continued showers are expected through much of
Thursday. A possible break in precipitation across northwest
Montana will be possible by Thursday night ahead of the next
weather system. Have lowered the chance for precipitation there,
but have continued higher precipitation chances across central
Idaho. Normal high temperatures this time of year across western
Montana range from the mid-50`s to the lower 60`s. Missoula and
Kalispell are around 60 degrees while Butte is around 55 degrees.
Thursday highs will come in just under those readings.

Another trough will pass through the region Friday through the
weekend. There are similarities between the upcoming weather
system and the one that recently passed with moisture to arrive
from the south and cold fronts to bring wind and lower snow
levels. Multiple shortwaves within the main trough will again
create chances for mountain pass snow and periods of slick
conditions across Lemhi County and along the Continental Divide
Friday night and on Saturday night.

There are still indications that high pressure will begin to
develop early next week and last into midweek. Uncertainties
remain on the placement and strength of the upper level ridge but
a warming trend with decreased chances for precipitation is
looking more likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain and snow showers will continue through this
afternoon. Gusty winds will also remain in association with a
passing shortwave. Brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings
are possible under stronger showers especially at KGPI and KBTM.
Showers and wind will decrease this evening as a weak ridge
moves into the region. North central Idaho will have little if any
break in cloud cover and rain as the next warm front moves over tonight.
Western Montana on the other hand may have isolated areas of
clearing that in conjuncture with afternoon showers will lead to a
chance for fog Thursday morning. Any patchy fog that does develop
will be short-lived. Showers and cloud cover will increase from
the southwest on Thursday with the passage of the warm front.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 231748
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231748
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
High pressure aloft providing generally dry and stable conditions.
The airmass will destabilize a little during the afternoon and
isolated showers will be possible, mainly over higher terrain and
mountains. Strong westerly surface winds will continue with the
strongest gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front and over adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231600
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov




000
FXUS65 KTFX 231600
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov




000
FXUS65 KTFX 231600
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov




000
FXUS65 KTFX 231600
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1000 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Minor update to the forecast this morning. Lowered POP over the
plains through noon and adjusted temperatures up a couple degrees.
Expecting a chance of showers developing this afternoon over
Southwest Montana. Winds will also remain strong and gusty over
much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to about three-quarters of an inch of
precipitation fell with isolated amounts in this range also
observed over other areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data
shows the greatest amount of melting/change in snow water content
at mid elevations in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little
Belt Mountains where 0.20" to 0.50" of snow-melt is estimated. Area
river/stream gauges are beginning to show a small response to
precipitation and snow-melt runoff with the East Gallatin river
currently at action stage. Cooler conditions today will slightly
limit additional snow-melt, but rivers and streams will need to be
closely monitored as the runoff from last night works its way down
from higher elevation areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  34  58  34 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  55  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  54  31  59  34 /  20  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  60  32  62  33 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  53  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 231554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG PACIFIC FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY EAST OF THE STATE AND HAS
TAKEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH IT. RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THESE WILL MOVE OUT
LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A BLUSTERY DAY WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE
40 TO 50 MPH RANGE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
FORECAST HAS THIS ALL HANDLED WELL SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS CENTERED
OVER WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL AREAS...JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MID MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GREATEST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THOUGH THERE
ARE STILL A FEW AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL AS
OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER TODAY. STRONG MIXING TODAY
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO WORK TO THE SURFACE AND EXPECT
GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH TO BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG
TIMBER TODAY BUT DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT
CROSSWIND EXPOSURE ALONG I-90. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AS IT
PASSES SO KEPT LOW POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S OVER WESTERN VALLEYS.

THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT LESS WINDY THAN TODAY. WITH CONTINUED
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. FRIDAY IS A DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND MAINLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FALL AND MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE. ONE OF THE SUBTLETIES IN THE FORECAST IS HOW
QUICKLY THE AIRMASS MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL PLUME
GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY BUT THEY ARE DIFFERING
ON HOW COOL AND HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING ON SUNDAY. OPTED FOR NO CHANGES
SINCE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COOLER SOLUTION BUT GFS TRIES TO
BE WARMER AND PRODUCE A BIT LESS PRECIPITATION. WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TEMPS.

BREAK IN THE WEATHER STARTS ON MONDAY THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY
HANG INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR PART OF THE DAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER AND WARMER. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 TO 40 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS E OF KBIL WILL BECOME VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION OVER
THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 036/060 039/062 039/052 039/044 032/052 038/061
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 047 034/054 033/063 035/052 038/050 030/056 034/066
    3/W 32/W    23/W    46/W    66/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 056 036/061 038/063 037/058 037/046 031/052 034/062
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    42/W    21/B
MLS 059 037/060 038/059 037/047 037/042 029/049 030/053
    3/W 22/W    11/B    66/W    77/W    74/W    21/B
4BQ 058 034/059 037/058 034/054 036/047 029/050 030/053
    3/W 31/N    11/B    44/W    77/W    63/W    31/B
BHK 058 034/056 036/058 033/045 032/039 026/045 027/050
    3/W 22/W    11/B    46/W    67/W    74/W    21/B
SHR 052 031/057 034/065 038/062 040/047 033/051 034/057
    2/W 22/W    22/W    33/W    66/W    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 231502
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
902 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WERE FEW. POPS SEEM FINE
AS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON RADAR SEEM
TO BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN TRACK SET UP BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT OBS. THE ONLY
THING THAT NEEDED SLIGHT TWEAKING WAS WINDS FIELDS ALONG THE
FRONTAL SHIFT LINE AND OUTSIDE OF THAT ZONE AS SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE A BIT LIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS HOWEVER DO
LOOK TO STAY ON TRACK AS 30 TO 40 KTS NEAR THE TOP OF MIXING LAYER
SHOWS UP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A FEW 35 TO 40 KTS GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY REARED THEIR UGLY HEADS ON OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z WILL MOVE
ACROSS MONTANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TURN THE STRONG
EAST WINDS INTO STRONGER WEST WINDS. AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AS IT SPLITS AWAY FROM BC PORTION
OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN MONTANA WILL BECOME STACKED WITH THE ALBERTA UPPER LOW.

AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EITHER ALONG THE FRONT OR WITHIN
A 100 MILES BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY WILL BE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRIER SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE DIMINISHED THE AMOUNT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO CHANCE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

THAT RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING FOR KGGW BUT
MAY FLIRT BRIEFLY WITH MVFR AT KOLF AND KSDY THIS MORNING AS A
BAND OF RAINSHOWERS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE GREATEST
IMPACT TODAY MAY BE THE SHIFTING WINDS AT KSDY...WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 20 KTS BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM.
TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 231502
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
902 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WERE FEW. POPS SEEM FINE
AS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON RADAR SEEM
TO BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN TRACK SET UP BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT OBS. THE ONLY
THING THAT NEEDED SLIGHT TWEAKING WAS WINDS FIELDS ALONG THE
FRONTAL SHIFT LINE AND OUTSIDE OF THAT ZONE AS SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE A BIT LIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS HOWEVER DO
LOOK TO STAY ON TRACK AS 30 TO 40 KTS NEAR THE TOP OF MIXING LAYER
SHOWS UP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A FEW 35 TO 40 KTS GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY REARED THEIR UGLY HEADS ON OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z WILL MOVE
ACROSS MONTANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TURN THE STRONG
EAST WINDS INTO STRONGER WEST WINDS. AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AS IT SPLITS AWAY FROM BC PORTION
OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN MONTANA WILL BECOME STACKED WITH THE ALBERTA UPPER LOW.

AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EITHER ALONG THE FRONT OR WITHIN
A 100 MILES BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY WILL BE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRIER SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE DIMINISHED THE AMOUNT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO CHANCE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

THAT RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING FOR KGGW BUT
MAY FLIRT BRIEFLY WITH MVFR AT KOLF AND KSDY THIS MORNING AS A
BAND OF RAINSHOWERS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE GREATEST
IMPACT TODAY MAY BE THE SHIFTING WINDS AT KSDY...WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 20 KTS BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM.
TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 231138
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation fell
with localized amounts in this range also observed over other
areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data shows the greatest
amount of melting/change in snow water content at mid elevations
in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little Belt Mountains where
0.20" to 0.50" of snowmelt is estimated. Area river/stream gauges
and beginning to show a small response to precipitation and
snowmelt runoff with the East Gallatin river currently at action
stage. Cooler conditions today will limit additional snowmelt, but
rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored as the runoff
from last night works its way down from higher elevation areas.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  58  34 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  51  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  53  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  52  31  59  34 /  30  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  58  32  62  33 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  51  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 231138
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Upper level trough continues to move east with precipitation
tapering off across the forecast area during the morning. Surface
winds will continue to strengthen through 18Z and will remain brisk
through Thursday morning. The strongest winds are expected over the
Rockies and adjacent plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected.
VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning but the air
mass will become slightly unstable again this afternoon for a chance
of showers mainly over the higher terrain. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation fell
with localized amounts in this range also observed over other
areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data shows the greatest
amount of melting/change in snow water content at mid elevations
in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little Belt Mountains where
0.20" to 0.50" of snowmelt is estimated. Area river/stream gauges
and beginning to show a small response to precipitation and
snowmelt runoff with the East Gallatin river currently at action
stage. Cooler conditions today will limit additional snowmelt, but
rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored as the runoff
from last night works its way down from higher elevation areas.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  58  34 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  51  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  53  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  52  31  59  34 /  30  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  58  32  62  33 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  51  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 231008
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
408 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought widespread precipitation to the
forecast area overnight will gradually pivot to the north and east
across the state today, then shift east across the Canadian Prairies
tonight through Thursday. Deep/moist southerly flow and associated
precipitation ahead of the trough axis has largely shifted east of
the region with flow aloft becoming more westerly and increasing
this morning. Strong west winds aloft and pressure gradient between
surface low pressure over AB and high pressure over the Great Basin
will produce gusty west winds across most of the forecast area
through this afternoon with a period of strong winds most likely
this morning along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains, where a
high wind warning will remain in effect today. Precipitation
coverage will be scattered today with better chances over the mtns
as westerly flow aloft brings some drying to the plains/valleys,
though cannot rule out a few showers at lower elevations this
afternoon as additional weak energy moves through the region and the
airmass will be somewhat unstable. Weak upper level ridging moves
over the region tonight for more significant drying. Shortwave and
upper level energy embedded within westerly flow aloft moves through
the upper ridge and across the region on Thursday bringing a chance
for scattered afternoon showers. On Friday the next Pacific upper
level trough moves onto the west coast with flow aloft shifting to
southwesterly and increasingly moist over MT with increasing chances
for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms by Friday
afternoon. Hoenisch

Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level troughing over the
western USA will bring widespread precipitation to Montana Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures continue to appear relatively mild
so am expecting mainly rain at lower elevations. For Saturday night
and Sunday the upper level system will gradually progress eastward
into the Great Plains leaving the Northern Rockies in an unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft for a continuing chance of showers through
the remainder of the weekend. Medium range model solutions diverge
for early next week but the overall consensus is that a high
amplitude upper level ridge will build over the far western USA. GFS
model progresses this feature inland over the Rockies by Wednesday
while the ECMWF keeps it in place over the west coast and places
Montana beneath a northerly flow aloft. Ensemble guidance appears to
support the gradual inland progression of the upper ridge so have
trended the forecast toward a warmer and drier solution for Monday
through Wednesday. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0408Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved through central Montana and will be
in eastern Montana by midnight. Winds have been strengthening
behind the cold front and will remain brisk through Wednesday. Very
strong and gusty winds are expected over the Rockies and adjacent
plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected. Low levels are very
moist and local MFR/IFR conditions are possible through the night.
VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become
slightly unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of
showers developing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation has ended with many locations seeing at
least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation in the last 24 hrs.
Highest precipitation totals were observed across Cascade county
where one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation fell
with localized amounts in this range also observed over other
areas of central MT. Analysis of SNOTEL data shows the greatest
amount of melting/change in snow water content at mid elevations
in the Madison, Gallatin, Bridger and Little Belt Mountains where
0.20" to 0.50" of snowmelt is estimated. Area river/stream gauges
and beginning to show a small response to precipitation and
snowmelt runoff with the East Gallatin river currently at action
stage. Cooler conditions today will limit additional snowmelt, but
rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored as the runoff
from last night works its way down from higher elevation areas.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  34  58  34 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  51  31  56  31 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  53  36  59  37 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  52  31  59  34 /  30  30  30  30
WEY  44  26  48  30 /  60  40  40  40
DLN  50  32  56  35 /  20  30  40  30
HVR  58  32  62  33 /  40  20  10  10
LWT  51  29  56  31 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230957
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
357 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS CENTERED
OVER WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO CENTRAL AREAS...JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA MID MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GREATEST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THOUGH THERE
ARE STILL A FEW AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL AS
OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER TODAY. STRONG MIXING TODAY
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO WORK TO THE SURFACE AND EXPECT
GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH TO BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG
TIMBER TODAY BUT DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT
CROSSWIND EXPOSURE ALONG I-90. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AS IT
PASSES SO KEPT LOW POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S OVER WESTERN VALLEYS.

THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT LESS WINDY THAN TODAY. WITH CONTINUED
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. FRIDAY IS A DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND MAINLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FALL AND MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE. ONE OF THE SUBTLETIES IN THE FORECAST IS HOW
QUICKLY THE AIRMASS MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL PLUME
GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY BUT THEY ARE DIFFERING
ON HOW COOL AND HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING ON SUNDAY. OPTED FOR NO CHANGES
SINCE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COOLER SOLUTION BUT GFS TRIES TO
BE WARMER AND PRODUCE A BIT LESS PRECIPITATION. WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TEMPS.

BREAK IN THE WEATHER STARTS ON MONDAY THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY
HANG INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR PART OF THE DAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER AND WARMER. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 036/060 039/062 039/052 039/044 032/052 038/061
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 047 034/054 033/063 035/052 038/050 030/056 034/066
    3/W 32/W    23/W    46/W    66/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 056 036/061 038/063 037/058 037/046 031/052 034/062
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    42/W    21/B
MLS 059 037/060 038/059 037/047 037/042 029/049 030/053
    3/W 22/W    11/B    66/W    77/W    74/W    21/B
4BQ 058 034/059 037/058 034/054 036/047 029/050 030/053
    3/W 31/N    11/B    44/W    77/W    63/W    31/B
BHK 058 034/056 036/058 033/045 032/039 026/045 027/050
    3/W 22/W    11/B    46/W    67/W    74/W    21/B
SHR 052 031/057 034/065 038/062 040/047 033/051 034/057
    2/W 22/W    22/W    33/W    66/W    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 230914
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
314 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...The area has transitioned to a much colder air mass
for today, however it remains unstable. As a result rain and snow
showers are expected again today. Due to the warm ground and
strength of the late April sun, no accumulation is expected except
in the mountains today. A few lightning strikes are possible with
deeper convection, but not expected since the freezing level is so
low and surface temperatures are so cold. The biggest impact
from the showers will probably be winds. With 20-25 mph winds in
the area, any additional winds from showers may enhance them
causing gusts near 40 mph. The situation will be similar Thursday,
though winds will be lesser than today.

Thursday Night through Sunday...A moist and unstable atmosphere
will persist through the weekend as a large-scale trough of low
pressure slowly migrates through the western states. The air mass
will be cool enough for additional snow in the mountains, while
valley locations will precipitation fall as rain.

Monday through Tuesday...Medium range models continue to show a
ridge of high pressure developing over the inter-mountain west.
Forecast confidence is growing for prospects of a warmer, dry
period for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers continue today, with snow showers causing
frequent mountain obscurations. With decent northwesterly flow
aloft and good instability due to the late April sun and a cold
air mass, expect a lot of quick moving showers and constantly
changing conditions, especially at KMSO and KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 230904
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z WILL MOVE
ACROSS MONTANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TURN THE STRONG
EAST WINDS INTO STRONGER WEST WINDS. AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AS IT SPLITS AWAY FROM BC PORTION
OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN MONTANA WILL BECOME STACKED WITH THE ALBERTA UPPER LOW.

AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EITHER ALONG THE FRONT OR WITHIN
A 100 MILES BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY WILL BE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRIER SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE DIMINISHED THE AMOUNT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO CHANCE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

THAT RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS TODAY. LOWERING CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 20-25 KTS BY 18Z. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 230904
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z WILL MOVE
ACROSS MONTANA TODAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TURN THE STRONG
EAST WINDS INTO STRONGER WEST WINDS. AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AS IT SPLITS AWAY FROM BC PORTION
OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN MONTANA WILL BECOME STACKED WITH THE ALBERTA UPPER LOW.

AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EITHER ALONG THE FRONT OR WITHIN
A 100 MILES BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY WILL BE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ON THE DRIER SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE DIMINISHED THE AMOUNT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO CHANCE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA.

THAT RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ITS BASE PICKING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH...AND THE COLD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WILL HAVE SQUEEZED UP A RIDGE OVER
MONTANA THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
BOUNDARY...SEPARATING THE NORTHERN COLD AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN
AIR MASS...OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
FIND THIS BOUNDARY AS A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO COLORADO WHERE IT STACKS UP THE THE SURFACE LOW TO FORM AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL CHANNEL MORE
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH THE GFS FAVORING RAIN
AND THE EC FAVORING SNOW. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEPT BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

THE SITUATION BECOMES EVEN MORE CLOUDED AFTER MONDAY WHEN A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST. THE GFS PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE EC HOWEVER KEEPS THE WARM AIR MASS
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...OVER CALIFORNIA. SO...THE EC MAINTAINS WET
AND COOL. THUS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MODELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONCERNING
NORTHEAST MONTANA.


&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS TODAY. LOWERING CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 20-25 KTS BY 18Z. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0408Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved through central Montana and will be
in eastern Montana by midnight. Winds have been strengthening
behind the cold front and will remain brisk through Wednesday. Very
strong and gusty winds are expected over the Rockies and adjacent
plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected. Low levels are very
moist and local MFR/IFR conditions are possible through the night.
VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become
slightly unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of
showers developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov









000
FXUS65 KTFX 230411
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0408Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved through central Montana and will be
in eastern Montana by midnight. Winds have been strengthening
behind the cold front and will remain brisk through Wednesday. Very
strong and gusty winds are expected over the Rockies and adjacent
plains with gusts in excess of 50 kts expected. Low levels are very
moist and local MFR/IFR conditions are possible through the night.
VFR conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become
slightly unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of
showers developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 230335
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230335
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230335
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 230335
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes since the last update. Have slightly
tweaked pops across the area. Snow levels have dropped to around
6500 feet and some locations have started to transition over
towards snow...however surface temperatures remain warm enough to
limit any accumulation to insulated or elevated surfaces. Will
continue to monitor the situation but will hold off on any winter
weather highlites for the time being. Hydrologic concerns continue
to remain as the bulk of the precipitation continues across the
region. So far the monitored rivers and streams continue to remain
within their banks. The dropping snow levels will limit any flash
melt event from rain falling on saturated and near melting snow.
Will closely monitor the situation...however no additional
highlites are expected at this time. Suk


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Wednesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230309
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH LIVINGSTON AND WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH BILLINGS BY 06Z AND MILES CITY
AROUND 12Z. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATE
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE FRONT FROM MAINLY FROM BILLINGS WEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AS FRONT WILL NOT REACH THAT AREA UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CONVECTION
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS IN TONIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
OUR PRIMARILY WIND RELATED. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF
RIAN AND SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER US THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STREAMING OUT IN
FRONT OF TROUGH WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE
GALLATIN NORTHWARD LATE TODAY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
SOME GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF IT WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD A
FEW SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW CELLS TURN SEVERE OVER PARK COUNTY UP TO
WHEATLAND WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES. WOULD EXPECT THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO COME
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT SLIDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND WIND SWITCH SHOW GOOD PUNCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA...AND COME THROUGH BILLINGS GENERALLY AROUND 06Z
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. WIND SPEEDS AT 850-700MB ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2MB AN HOUR WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IMPLY A THREAT OF SOME STRONG WIND IN
FAVORABLE AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL BAND OF QPF LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST ON THE PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE REGION...BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WIND WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS STILL INSINUATING SOME
STRONG WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER VICINITIES...AND
POSSIBLY HARLOWTON AND COLUMBUS. I AM TEMPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT DOWN ON THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS. DO NOT WANT TO
HANDCUFF US WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT THAT IS BORDERLINE AND TRENDING
DOWN. WILL THEREFORE DEFER TO NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS FOR ACTING ON
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER VICINITY FOR
LATTER HALF OF TOMORROW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE WIND
THREATS IN WEATHER STORIES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
SUCH AS TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. LARGE TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY BRINGING WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..SURFACE WINDS AND ALOFT
QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY RESULTING IN MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

MODELS THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AND STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP
LOOK TO BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF BEING
THE COLDER OF THE TWO AS THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE. AS A RESULT...MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KLVM AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE KBIL AREA BY 07Z AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE KSHR
AND KMLS AREAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND...POTENTIALLY...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. VERY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/057 036/061 038/060 039/052 037/044 032/052 036/057
    62/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/O    32/W    22/W
LVM 037/051 034/059 035/061 035/052 036/050 030/056 032/062
    63/W    33/W    23/W    46/W    66/O    32/W    23/W
HDN 044/060 034/062 035/061 037/058 035/046 031/052 032/058
    53/W    31/N    22/W    44/W    66/O    42/W    22/W
MLS 047/060 036/059 036/057 037/047 035/042 029/049 028/049
    44/W    32/W    11/B    66/W    77/O    74/W    21/B
4BQ 048/060 034/061 035/056 034/054 034/047 029/050 028/049
    33/W    22/W    11/B    44/W    66/O    63/W    31/B
BHK 047/060 033/057 033/053 033/045 030/039 026/045 025/046
    33/T    22/W    11/B    46/W    67/O    74/W    21/B
SHR 042/056 031/060 035/063 038/062 038/047 033/051 032/053
    33/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/R    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 230152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
752 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...SIDING WITH THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ON SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKS TO GET INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND ALL AREAS BY 6 AM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.       PROTON

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH EAST.

EXPECT SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NOCTURNAL CLAPS OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS UP INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING STACKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...THUS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA OUT OF CANADA AS THE NOW STACKED LOW DROPS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS WAS AGAIN PLACED ON THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN PROBLEM PRESENTING ITSELF IS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAYS. THE EC SEEMS TO HOLD A COOL CONSISTENT MESSAGE
WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SWINGING WILDLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE 12Z
RUN. FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE EC AND EC MOS SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED UP AS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP WITH A MODERATED/
FLATTENED DIURNAL CURVE AND ON SOME DAYS ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE LOWEST VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION
WITH THESE EVENTS IS STILL SLIDING AROUND BUT IS ALSO VERY
PLENTIFUL. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE LOW IF AT ALL. AFTER
THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT CHAOS IN THE MODELS RETURNS WITH A
VENGEANCE AND EXPECT FORECAST TO CHANGE. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 20-25 KTS BY 18Z. AEC/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 230152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
752 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...SIDING WITH THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ON SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKS TO GET INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND ALL AREAS BY 6 AM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.       PROTON

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH EAST.

EXPECT SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NOCTURNAL CLAPS OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS UP INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING STACKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...THUS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA OUT OF CANADA AS THE NOW STACKED LOW DROPS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS WAS AGAIN PLACED ON THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN PROBLEM PRESENTING ITSELF IS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAYS. THE EC SEEMS TO HOLD A COOL CONSISTENT MESSAGE
WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SWINGING WILDLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE 12Z
RUN. FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE EC AND EC MOS SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED UP AS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP WITH A MODERATED/
FLATTENED DIURNAL CURVE AND ON SOME DAYS ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE LOWEST VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION
WITH THESE EVENTS IS STILL SLIDING AROUND BUT IS ALSO VERY
PLENTIFUL. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE LOW IF AT ALL. AFTER
THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT CHAOS IN THE MODELS RETURNS WITH A
VENGEANCE AND EXPECT FORECAST TO CHANGE. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 20-25 KTS BY 18Z. AEC/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 230152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
752 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...SIDING WITH THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ON SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKS TO GET INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND ALL AREAS BY 6 AM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.       PROTON

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH EAST.

EXPECT SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NOCTURNAL CLAPS OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS UP INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING STACKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...THUS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA OUT OF CANADA AS THE NOW STACKED LOW DROPS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS WAS AGAIN PLACED ON THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN PROBLEM PRESENTING ITSELF IS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAYS. THE EC SEEMS TO HOLD A COOL CONSISTENT MESSAGE
WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SWINGING WILDLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE 12Z
RUN. FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE EC AND EC MOS SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED UP AS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP WITH A MODERATED/
FLATTENED DIURNAL CURVE AND ON SOME DAYS ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE LOWEST VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION
WITH THESE EVENTS IS STILL SLIDING AROUND BUT IS ALSO VERY
PLENTIFUL. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE LOW IF AT ALL. AFTER
THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT CHAOS IN THE MODELS RETURNS WITH A
VENGEANCE AND EXPECT FORECAST TO CHANGE. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 20-25 KTS BY 18Z. AEC/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 230152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
752 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...SIDING WITH THE HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ON SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKS TO GET INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AND ALL AREAS BY 6 AM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.       PROTON

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH EAST.

EXPECT SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NOCTURNAL CLAPS OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS UP INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING STACKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...THUS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA OUT OF CANADA AS THE NOW STACKED LOW DROPS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS WAS AGAIN PLACED ON THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN PROBLEM PRESENTING ITSELF IS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAYS. THE EC SEEMS TO HOLD A COOL CONSISTENT MESSAGE
WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SWINGING WILDLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE 12Z
RUN. FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE EC AND EC MOS SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED UP AS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP WITH A MODERATED/
FLATTENED DIURNAL CURVE AND ON SOME DAYS ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE LOWEST VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION
WITH THESE EVENTS IS STILL SLIDING AROUND BUT IS ALSO VERY
PLENTIFUL. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE LOW IF AT ALL. AFTER
THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT CHAOS IN THE MODELS RETURNS WITH A
VENGEANCE AND EXPECT FORECAST TO CHANGE. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 20-25 KTS BY 18Z. AEC/SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 230141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled the Thunderstorm Watch for Southwest Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the
area...however damaging winds are not anticipated with any
additional storms. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 230141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled the Thunderstorm Watch for Southwest Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the
area...however damaging winds are not anticipated with any
additional storms. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 230141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled the Thunderstorm Watch for Southwest Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the
area...however damaging winds are not anticipated with any
additional storms. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 230141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Have cancelled the Thunderstorm Watch for Southwest Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the
area...however damaging winds are not anticipated with any
additional storms. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230133
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
733 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WHEATLAND/SWEET
GRASS AND PARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS
CAUSING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND
MILES CITY AND BAKER SHORT AFTER 12Z. THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO TONIGHT FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AROUND 9 PM IF NECESSARY.
RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS IN TONIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
OUR PRIMARILY WIND RELATED. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF
RIAN AND SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER US THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STREAMING OUT IN
FRONT OF TROUGH WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE
GALLATIN NORTHWARD LATE TODAY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
SOME GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF IT WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD A
FEW SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW CELLS TURN SEVERE OVER PARK COUNTY UP TO
WHEATLAND WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES. WOULD EXPECT THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO COME
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT SLIDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND WIND SWITCH SHOW GOOD PUNCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA...AND COME THROUGH BILLINGS GENERALLY AROUND 06Z
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. WIND SPEEDS AT 850-700MB ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2MB AN HOUR WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IMPLY A THREAT OF SOME STRONG WIND IN
FAVORABLE AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL BAND OF QPF LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST ON THE PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE REGION...BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WIND WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS STILL INSINUATING SOME
STRONG WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER VICINITIES...AND
POSSIBLY HARLOWTON AND COLUMBUS. I AM TEMPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT DOWN ON THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS. DO NOT WANT TO
HANDCUFF US WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT THAT IS BORDERLINE AND TRENDING
DOWN. WILL THEREFORE DEFER TO NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS FOR ACTING ON
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER VICINITY FOR
LATTER HALF OF TOMORROW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE WIND
THREATS IN WEATHER STORIES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
SUCH AS TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. LARGE TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY BRINGING WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..SURFACE WINDS AND ALOFT
QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY RESULTING IN MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

MODELS THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AND STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP
LOOK TO BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF BEING
THE COLDER OF THE TWO AS THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE. AS A RESULT...MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KLVM AREA
AROUND 03Z AND THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND 06Z AND BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS-KSHR LINE. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/057 036/061 038/060 039/052 037/044 032/052 036/057
    62/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/O    32/W    22/W
LVM 037/051 034/059 035/061 035/052 036/050 030/056 032/062
    63/W    33/W    23/W    46/W    66/O    32/W    23/W
HDN 044/060 034/062 035/061 037/058 035/046 031/052 032/058
    53/W    31/N    22/W    44/W    66/O    42/W    22/W
MLS 047/060 036/059 036/057 037/047 035/042 029/049 028/049
    44/W    32/W    11/B    66/W    77/O    74/W    21/B
4BQ 048/060 034/061 035/056 034/054 034/047 029/050 028/049
    33/W    22/W    11/B    44/W    66/O    63/W    31/B
BHK 047/060 033/057 033/053 033/045 030/039 026/045 025/046
    33/T    22/W    11/B    46/W    67/O    74/W    21/B
SHR 042/056 031/060 035/063 038/062 038/047 033/051 032/053
    33/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/R    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 230057 AAA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
657 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...Allowed the wind advisory for portions of SW Montana to expire.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The threat for strong winds from convective activity has
lessened enough to allow the wind advisory for portions of
southwest Montana to expire. However, breezy winds do exist
currently across central Idaho and western Montana, and will
continue through the night into Wednesday morning. At this time,
they are not expected to be very strong, although intermittent
gusts are likely.


&&

.AVIATION...A cold front will shift east of the Divide by late
this afternoon. Along this front, rather strong and gusty winds
and isolated thunderstorms will continue across southwest Montana.
Considering some of the the stronger and isolated convection, wind
gusts to 50 mph are possible. A larger area of light to moderate
precipitation is behind the cold front and will shift from the
Clearwaters and Bitterroots across southwest Montana this evening.
Widespread mountain obscuration, and lower ceilings and
visibilities will accompany this precipitation area. Also, areas
of light to moderate rain should change to snow in the higher
valleys as colder air surges into the region. The KMSO and KSMN
TAF sites should be impact first this afternoon into early
evening. KBTM will see the lower ceilings/visibilities and rain
changing to snow this evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

..STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
..LIGHT SNOW OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DISCUSSION...An unstable atmosphere and favorable low level wind
profile will support locally strong showers and isolated
thunderstorms across southwest Montana and Lemhi County until 4 or
5 p.m. this afternoon. A cold front will also move across
southwest Montana during the mid to late afternoon producing
strong gusty winds as well. Thereafter, the wind threat will shift
east of the Continental Divide.

The second impact of concern is a colder air mass combining with
additional moisture surging across the Bitterroots, Sapphires, and
Georgetown Lake to Butte area this evening. Snow levels will
rapidly lower to high valley floors (such as Georgetown lake,
Anaconda, Butte) with some accumulation likely, especially above
5500 feet. However, road surfaces should remain warm enough
through the evening to keep most road accumulations to just patchy
slush. However, Lost Trail Pass and Bannock Pass may become more
snow packed through the evening and night.

The third impact is a very cold northwest flow and additional
surge of moisture moving across Grangeville and Orofino and mainly
eastward to the Bitterroots and Sapphire Mountains of western
Montana Wednesday. The strong winds aloft should help produce
more banded showers, but also gusty winds. This cold and more banded
type showers Wednesday should produce snow accumulations on area
mountain passes, especially Lolo and Lost Trail Passes. However,
given the more concentrated snow should be during the mid day and
afternoon, roads should remain wet because of day time heating.

Additional Pacific weather systems and a southwest flow is
expected Thursday into Saturday. A fair amount of moisture will
occasionally push across the region. Valley temperatures should
moderate some Thursday and Friday, but the air mass remain cold
enough for additional mountain snow. As such, only modest stream
rises are expected into the weekend.

In the longer term, model guidance is showing a warmer weather
pattern (associated with a ridge of high pressure) developing early
next week. Due to model to model and run to run inconsistencies
regarding the timing and strength of the this warmer weather
pattern, confidence is still rather low.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 222324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 222324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 222324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 222324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KGGW 222143
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH EAST.

EXPECT SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NOCTURNAL CLAPS OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS UP INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING STACKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...THUS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION...AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE..COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA OUT OF CANADA AS THE NOW STACKED LOW DROPS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
REDEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS WAS AGAIN PLACED ON THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN PROBLEM PRESENTING ITSELF IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS. THE EC SEEMS TO HOLD A COOL CONSISTENT MESSAGE WHILE
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SWINGING WILDLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE 12Z RUN.
FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE EC AND EC MOS SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER... OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED UP AS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP WITH A MODERATED/
FLATTENED DIURNAL CURVE AND ON SOME DAYS ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE LOWEST VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THESE EVENTS IS STILL SLIDING AROUND BUT IS ALSO VERY PLENTIFUL.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE LOW IF AT ALL. AFTER THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT CHAOS IN THE MODELS RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE
AND EXPECT FORECAST TO CHANGE. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. A STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOMING WEST
20-25 KTS BY 18Z.AEC


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 222143
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH EAST.

EXPECT SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NOCTURNAL CLAPS OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS UP INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING STACKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...THUS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION...AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE..COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA OUT OF CANADA AS THE NOW STACKED LOW DROPS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
REDEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS WAS AGAIN PLACED ON THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN PROBLEM PRESENTING ITSELF IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS. THE EC SEEMS TO HOLD A COOL CONSISTENT MESSAGE WHILE
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SWINGING WILDLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE 12Z RUN.
FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE EC AND EC MOS SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER... OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED UP AS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP WITH A MODERATED/
FLATTENED DIURNAL CURVE AND ON SOME DAYS ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE LOWEST VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THESE EVENTS IS STILL SLIDING AROUND BUT IS ALSO VERY PLENTIFUL.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE LOW IF AT ALL. AFTER THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT CHAOS IN THE MODELS RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE
AND EXPECT FORECAST TO CHANGE. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. A STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOMING WEST
20-25 KTS BY 18Z.AEC


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 222143
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND ARE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH EAST.

EXPECT SAID SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NOCTURNAL CLAPS OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WRAPS UP INTO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING STACKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...THUS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION...AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE..COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA OUT OF CANADA AS THE NOW STACKED LOW DROPS INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
REDEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
FOR THE LONG TERM FOCUS WAS AGAIN PLACED ON THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN PROBLEM PRESENTING ITSELF IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS. THE EC SEEMS TO HOLD A COOL CONSISTENT MESSAGE WHILE
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SWINGING WILDLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE 12Z RUN.
FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE EC AND EC MOS SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER... OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE TWEAKED UP AS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP WITH A MODERATED/
FLATTENED DIURNAL CURVE AND ON SOME DAYS ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE LOWEST VALUES WERE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WITH
THESE EVENTS IS STILL SLIDING AROUND BUT IS ALSO VERY PLENTIFUL.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL PROBABLY BE LOW IF AT ALL. AFTER THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT CHAOS IN THE MODELS RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE
AND EXPECT FORECAST TO CHANGE. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. LOWERING
CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. A STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL BECOMING WEST
20-25 KTS BY 18Z.AEC


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW









000
FXUS65 KBYZ 222055
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
255 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS IN TONIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
OUR PRIMARILY WIND RELATED. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF
RIAN AND SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER US THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO DEEP SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM.

QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STREAMING OUT IN
FRONT OF TROUGH WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE
GALLATIN NORTHWARD LATE TODAY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
SOME GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF IT WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD A
FEW SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW CELLS TURN SEVERE OVER PARK COUNTY UP TO
WHEATLAND WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES. WOULD EXPECT THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z
AND 04Z. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO COME
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT SLIDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND WIND SWITCH SHOW GOOD PUNCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA...AND COME THROUGH BILLINGS GENERALLY AROUND 06Z
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. WIND SPEEDS AT 850-700MB ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2MB AN HOUR WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IMPLY A THREAT OF SOME STRONG WIND IN
FAVORABLE AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL BAND OF QPF LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST ON THE PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE REGION...BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WIND WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS STILL INSINUATING SOME
STRONG WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER VICINITIES...AND
POSSIBLY HARLOWTON AND COLUMBUS. I AM TEMPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT DOWN ON THE 12Z CYCLE
RUNS. DO NOT WANT TO HANDCUFF US WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT THAT IS
BORDERLINE AND TRENDING DOWN. WILL THEREFORE DEFER TO NEXT COUPLE
OF SHIFTS FOR ACTING ON POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON TO
BIG TIMBER VICINITY FOR LATTER HALF OF TOMORROW. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO EMPHASIZE WIND THREATS IN WEATHER STORIES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCTS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
SUCH AS TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. LARGE TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY BRINGING WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..SURFACE WINDS AND ALOFT
QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY RESULTING IN MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

MODELS THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AND STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP
LOOK TO BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF BEING
THE COLDER OF THE TWO AS THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE. AS A RESULT...MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KLVM AREA
AROUND 03Z AND THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND 06Z AND BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS-KSHR LINE. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/057 036/061 038/060 039/052 037/044 032/052 036/057
    62/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/O    32/W    22/W
LVM 037/051 034/059 035/061 035/052 036/050 030/056 032/062
    63/W    33/W    23/W    46/W    66/O    32/W    23/W
HDN 044/060 034/062 035/061 037/058 035/046 031/052 032/058
    53/W    31/N    22/W    44/W    66/O    42/W    22/W
MLS 047/060 036/059 036/057 037/047 035/042 029/049 028/049
    44/W    32/W    11/B    66/W    77/O    74/W    21/B
4BQ 048/060 034/061 035/056 034/054 034/047 029/050 028/049
    33/W    22/W    11/B    44/W    66/O    63/W    31/B
BHK 047/060 033/057 033/053 033/045 030/039 026/045 025/046
    33/T    22/W    11/B    46/W    67/O    74/W    21/B
SHR 042/056 031/060 035/063 038/062 038/047 033/051 032/053
    33/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/R    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 222038
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
238 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 222038
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
238 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 222003
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
203 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...LIGHT SNOW OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...An unstable atmosphere and favorable low level wind
profile will support locally strong showers and isolated
thunderstorms across southwest Montana and Lemhi County until 4 or
5 p.m. this afternoon. A cold front will also move across
southwest Montana during the mid to late afternoon producing
strong gusty winds as well. Thereafter, the wind threat will shift
east of the Continental Divide.

The second impact of concern is a colder air mass combining with
additional moisture surging across the Bitterroots, Sapphires, and
Georgetown Lake to Butte area this evening. Snow levels will
rapidly lower to high valley floors (such as Georgetown lake,
Anaconda, Butte) with some accumulation likely, especially above
5500 feet. However, road surfaces should remain warm enough
through the evening to keep most road accumulations to just patchy
slush. However, Lost Trail Pass and Bannock Pass may become more
snow packed through the evening and night.

The third impact is a very cold northwest flow and additional
surge of moisture moving across Grangeville and Orofino and mainly
eastward to the Bitterroots and Sapphire Mountains of western
Montana Wednesday. The strong winds aloft should help produce
more banded showers, but also gusty winds. This cold and more banded
type showers Wednesday should produce snow accumulations on area
mountain passes, especially Lolo and Lost Trail Passes. However,
given the more concentrated snow should be during the mid day and
afternoon, roads should remain wet because of day time heating.

Additional Pacific weather systems and a southwest flow is
expected Thursday into Saturday. A fair amount of moisture will
occasionally push across the region. Valley temperatures should
moderate some Thursday and Friday, but the air mass remain cold
enough for additional mountain snow. As such, only modest stream
rises are expected into the weekend.

In the longer term, model guidance is showing a warmer weather
pattern (associated with a ridge of high pressure) developing early
next week. Due to model to model and run to run inconsistencies
regarding the timing and strength of the this warmer weather
pattern, confidence is still rather low.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front will shift east of the Divide by late
this afternoon. Along this front, rather strong and gusty winds
and isolated thunderstorms will continue across southwest Montana.
Considering some of the the stronger and isolated convection, wind
gusts to 50 mph are possible. A larger area of light to moderate
precipitation is behind the cold front and will shift from the
Clearwaters and Bitterroots across southwest Montana this evening.
Widespread mountain obscuration, and lower ceilings and
visibilities will accompany this precipitation area. Also, areas
of light to moderate rain should change to snow in the higher
valleys as colder air surges into the region. The KMSO and KSMN
TAF sites should be impact first this afternoon into early
evening. KBTM will see the lower ceilings/visibilities and rain
changing to snow this evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221803
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of Interstate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change to
increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the cold
front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221803
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of Interstate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change to
increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the cold
front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 221803
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of Interstate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change to
increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the cold
front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 221803
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of Interstate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change to
increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the cold
front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A Pacific cold front will move across the area during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind the front as
it moves east. Some thunderstorms may become strong with isolated
severe thunderstorms also a possibility. Convective activity should
decrease by 06z. Gusty west winds are also expected behind the front
and should persist through the night. The strongest winds should
occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Southwest
Montana may see snow showers after midnight as temperatures drop.
VFR conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity
of showers. Mountains may become obscured at times after 06z,
especially over southwest Montana.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 221609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1009 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of intestate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change was
to increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the
cold front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 221609
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1009 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Models are showing sufficient shear and instability over a small
portion of southwest and central Montana this afternoon for the
threat of isolated severe thunderstorms. The main threat from
these storms would be winds but could not rule out a a few cells
producing hail to near one inch in diameter. The best dynamics
will be across Gallatin...Meagher...and southern Judith basin and
Fergus counties. Will be adding mention of severe thunderstorms to
much of this area. There is a threat for weaker thunderstorms
across much of the remainder of the CWA...especially along and
east of intestate 15.

The remainder of the forecast is on track, only minor change was
to increase winds over southwest Montana with the passage of the
cold front this evening. Langlieb

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221546
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
946 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO SKY
COVER BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
TO GIVE MANY AREAS HIGHS IN THE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG LEE SIDE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
MONTANA WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. WITH THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE SPREADING IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW A DRY SLOT
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THAT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE WEST (BACK) SIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA MAINLY ON THURSDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...UP TO 25-30KTS BY THIS EVENING. VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FOR
ALL TERMINAL. THESE WILL BE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST
9000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE...BUT IF ANY OF THEM HAPPEN TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BE IMPACTED.
BMICKELSON/AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221546
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
946 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO SKY
COVER BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
TO GIVE MANY AREAS HIGHS IN THE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG LEE SIDE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
MONTANA WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. WITH THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE SPREADING IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW A DRY SLOT
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THAT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE WEST (BACK) SIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA MAINLY ON THURSDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...UP TO 25-30KTS BY THIS EVENING. VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FOR
ALL TERMINAL. THESE WILL BE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST
9000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE...BUT IF ANY OF THEM HAPPEN TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BE IMPACTED.
BMICKELSON/AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221546
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
946 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO SKY
COVER BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
TO GIVE MANY AREAS HIGHS IN THE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG LEE SIDE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
MONTANA WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. WITH THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE SPREADING IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW A DRY SLOT
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THAT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE WEST (BACK) SIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA MAINLY ON THURSDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...UP TO 25-30KTS BY THIS EVENING. VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FOR
ALL TERMINAL. THESE WILL BE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST
9000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE...BUT IF ANY OF THEM HAPPEN TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BE IMPACTED.
BMICKELSON/AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 221546
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
946 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO SKY
COVER BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY
TO GIVE MANY AREAS HIGHS IN THE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG LEE SIDE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
MONTANA WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. WITH THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE SPREADING IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW A DRY SLOT
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THAT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE WEST (BACK) SIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA MAINLY ON THURSDAY. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS AND NEWBORN LIVESTOCK. FOR NOW...WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...UP TO 25-30KTS BY THIS EVENING. VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FOR
ALL TERMINAL. THESE WILL BE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST
9000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE...BUT IF ANY OF THEM HAPPEN TO PASS
DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BE IMPACTED.
BMICKELSON/AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND THE PRYORS AND BIG HORNS THIS
MORNING AS SOME WEAK IMPULSES/MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF LARGE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THESE. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. PACIFIC FRONT TONIGHT MAY HAVE A GOOD PUNCH TO IT
WITH SHOWERS...SOME THUNDER...AND STRONG WINDS. WIND WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FOR THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WE WILL CONTEMPLATE IF WE
NEED ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR TOMORROW. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 30 TO
50 MPH EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WARM AND DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOWER 80S THAT SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT IF A BROADER BREAK IN CLOUDS DEVELOPS ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH
BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. STRONG PVA SPREADS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO GO WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR FORCING. THESE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EASTWARD REACHING BILLING
LATE IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING THROUGH FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 4
TO 6KFT SO HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH STORMS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 50 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 50
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE TROF FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINES WITH LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A COLD AND WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SNOW IS PART OF THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

BEFORE THE WEEKEND THURSDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ROTATING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINING DECREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE. ALSO WILL SEE
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

FRIDAY SHORT LIVED RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS OVER WYOMING AND
CAUSES A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING TOO WARM BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MONTANA NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION...PRECIPITATION HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY
LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MODELS DEEPEN A WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AT
THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT STRENGTHENS THE PROCESSES STARTED
ON SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LIFT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF STAYING SNOW ON SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND ADDED SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST MONTANA
COULD STAY IN THE COLD AND WET. WESTERN AREAS WILL START SEEING A
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL SEE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AS BROAD
RIDGING HEADS INTO THE WEST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS AROUND KLVM AROUND 21Z SPREADING EAST TO KBIL BY 03Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE INTENSE AND PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
SMALL HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR ANY STORMS.
STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NEAR ANY STORMS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 044/055 037/060 036/059 038/049 035/043 031/052
    2/T 62/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    54/W    32/W
LVM 070 037/049 034/060 035/061 035/049 034/049 029/056
    4/T 63/W    43/W    23/W    45/W    54/W    22/W
HDN 077 045/058 035/060 033/061 037/055 034/045 030/052
    2/T 52/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    65/W    32/W
MLS 076 048/059 037/059 032/055 035/044 033/041 028/049
    1/B 43/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    76/W    43/W
4BQ 077 050/059 035/059 032/056 034/051 032/046 028/050
    1/B 33/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    66/W    43/W
BHK 071 049/059 035/056 029/050 031/042 028/038 025/045
    1/N 33/W    22/W    11/B    45/W    66/J    43/W
SHR 075 043/054 032/058 033/061 036/059 036/046 032/051
    1/B 33/W    33/W    22/W    43/W    65/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 221440
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
840 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...Updated forecast today to add more wind from about
Missoula to Kalispell and eastward to Divide as the cold front
shifts east across area mid day and this afternoon. Also, may see
isolated strong thunderstorms/convection from the Sapphire
Mountains eastward to Deerlodge, Anaconda, and Butte this
afternoon.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A cold front should plow into western Montana later
this morning and then further intensify as it shifts across
southwest Montana this afternoon. Strong gusty west to northwest
winds are expected as the front passes. The bigger short term
concern is possible strong convection and isolated thunderstorms
across southwest Montana this afternoon. The stronger showers
could produce wind gusts to possibly 50 mph. Brief moderate to
heavy rain should also accompany the convection with ponding along
roads a concern.


&&

.AVIATION...Increasing mid and low level clouds today as large
trough and cold front move into the northern Rockies. Frontal
passage is expected by mid day Missoula to Kalispell and this
afternoon across southwest Montana and along the Divide. Lowering
ceilings and visibilities can be expected as stronger showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop along the front. Also, brief
stronger winds gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible with the stronger
convection in southwest Montana this afternoon. Increasing
mountain obscurations, and a transition to snow showers can be
expected, especially across southwest Montana into early this
evening.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...Several impacts today and Wednesday from a change in
the overall weather pattern ushered in by a cold front today.

First, the cold front will move across the region today, with most
of the action occurring this afternoon and evening. Expect a brief
period of increased winds as the front passes, otherwise it will
be breezy today. A recent change in the model forecasts has the
front intensifying over the Continental Divide this afternoon and
evening. As a result, Georgetown, Anaconda, Deer Lodge, and Butte
could see half an inch or more of rain and some snow by Wednesday
morning, with higher amounts in the mountains. There is also a
slight chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide late
this afternoon and this evening.

Most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain, but there
is considerable uncertainty in the snow levels, especially with
the heavier precipitation. The main area of concern is again
Georgetown to Butte. This area will be monitored closely for a
potential winter weather advisory. Ground temperatures are very
warm right now, with sub-surface temperatures over 50 degrees in
many places. As a result, significant snow accumulation on roads
is not expected except in areas of heavy snow. Otherwise, expect
snow on elevated surfaces and the grass.

Most mountain passes are also expected to get some snow. While
snow levels are now very high, it will start as rain today and
turn to snow around midnight. Accumulations on the roads are
uncertain due to the very warm ground temperatures. If it does
accumulate it will be very slushy on the roads under the heaviest
showers.

Wednesday showers will continue, but the dominant impact will be
the wind. Again the biggest impacts will be from Georgetown to
Butte and along the Continental Divide with 20 mph winds gusting
near 40 mph regularly in the afternoon.

Thursday through Sunday...The active weather pattern will continue
as the models are now favoring a broad scale trough of low
pressure over the Northern Rockies region. In fact, this pattern
is beginning to look very similar to the weather pattern expected
during the next couple of days (today and Wednesday). This deep
trough will be able to tap into some sub-tropical moisture and
transport it northward into the region. Thus, we have increased
the chances of precipitation. Temperatures will be running a few
degrees cooler than normal thanks to cloud cover and potential for
precipitation.

Monday through Tuesday...Latest runs of the medium range forecast
models have been hinting at a ridge building into the region. If
models remain consistent with this pattern change, we will return
to warmer, dry conditions.

AVIATION...Increasing mid and low level clouds today as large
trough and cold front move into the northern Rockies. Frontal
passage is expected this afternoon and evening with lowering
ceilings, increasing mountain obscurations, and a rain-snow mix.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221232 CCA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Cooler and
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain and small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely to see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread mountain
snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KTFX 221149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info
below). Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the
trough moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east
into the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough
intensifies over central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold
front associated with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front
and main forcing associated with the trough move across the region
tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE
across the forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an
windy conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday
with precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through
tonight still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of
the area with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison
County north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and
north to western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the potential
for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening to
fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff and
flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The potential for
this situation exists across most mountain rages of central and
southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin River most
likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread mountain
snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
A cold front is expected to move to near a KCTB-KBTM line around 21z
and then to near a KHVR-KLWT line near 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely near and behind the front. Expect scattered
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers and thunderstorms with
local IFR ceilings and visibilties. A few of the thunderstorms will
have wind gusts to 40 kts and small hail. Showers and thunderstorms
will end from the west near and after midnight over the plains but
showers are expected to linger over southwest Montana past midnight.
Gusty westerly winds 20 to 30 kts will develop behind the front and
there is a risk of wind gusts to 50 kts along the Rocky Mountain
Front after midnight. Snow levels will be dropping overnight and
could see brief MVFR conditions in snow for the southwest valleys.
Also expect areas of mountain obscurement tonight over the Rocky
Mountain Front and southwest Montana in snow. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 221053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info below).
Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the trough
moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east into
the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough intensifies over
central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front associated
with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front and main forcing
associated with the trough move across the region tonight with
showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the
forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an windy
conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday with
precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through tonight
still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of the area
with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison County
north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and north to
western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the
potential for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening
to fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff
and flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The
potential for this situation exists across most mountain rages of
central and southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin
River most likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info below).
Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the trough
moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east into
the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough intensifies over
central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front associated
with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front and main forcing
associated with the trough move across the region tonight with
showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the
forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an windy
conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday with
precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through tonight
still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of the area
with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison County
north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and north to
western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the
potential for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening
to fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff
and flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The
potential for this situation exists across most mountain rages of
central and southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin
River most likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info below).
Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the trough
moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east into
the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough intensifies over
central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front associated
with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front and main forcing
associated with the trough move across the region tonight with
showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the
forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an windy
conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday with
precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through tonight
still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of the area
with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison County
north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and north to
western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the
potential for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening
to fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff
and flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The
potential for this situation exists across most mountain rages of
central and southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin
River most likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 221053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...A deep upper level trough along the west
coast this morning will shift inland, bringing multiple weather
impacts to the region through the next 24 hrs (see specific info below).
Upper level jet and diffluent flow on the front side of the trough
moving into northern CA/OR early this morning will move east into
the northern Rockies later today while a surface trough intensifies over
central MT this afternoon ahead of a Pacific cold front associated
with the upper trough. Surface trough/cold front and main forcing
associated with the trough move across the region tonight with
showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the
forecast are late this afternoon and evening. Cooler an windy
conditions move in behind the front tonight through Wednesday with
precipitation diminishing to scattered showers by Wednesday
morning. Westerly flow will limit precipitation chances for areas
east of the Mtns Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures 5-10
degrees below seasonal averages.

Thunderstorms...Convective precipitation developing ahead of the
front this afternoon over western and SW MT will shift east across
north-central and the remainder of SW MT this evening. Upper
level forcing and instability will provide ample lift for
thunderstorm development, though cloud-cover and dewpoints in the
20s/30s will likely be a limiting factor in the strength of
thunderstorm activity. Main concern with thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening is the potential for linear organization and
strong winds with locally heavy rain a small hail a secondary
threat.

Winds....Strong pressure rises behind the front will contribute to
gusty post frontal west winds this evening with strong lower level
westerly flow developing later tonight and continuing through
Wednesday as low pressure deepens over southern AB beneath the
closed mid-upper level low. Area most likely to see winds 30kts with
gusts near 50 kts will be along and adjacent to the Rocky Mtn front
where a a high wind watch remains in effect for tonight through
Wednesday.

Precipitation/Hydrology...Total precipitation amounts through tonight
still look to range from around 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of the area
with highest amounts likely along a swath from Madison County
north-northeast through Cascade/Judith Basin counties and north to
western Hill county where localized amounts around 3/4" are
possible. Main concern from a hydrologic standpoint is the
potential for embedded heavier precipitation late this afternoon/evening
to fall on mountain snowpack resulting in rapid snowmelt runoff
and flooding of creeks/rivers originating in the mtns. The
potential for this situation exists across most mountain rages of
central and southwest MT with streams emptying into the Gallatin
River most likely see locally moderate precipitation on a widespread
mountain snowpack.

Winter Weather...Strong cooling associated with the upper level
trough will cause snow levels to fall rapidly tonight behind the
cold front. Expect a change-over to snow on most passes overnight
though precipitation largely diminishes as the cooler air moves
in, resulting in around an inch of snow at pass levels, though
road surfaces may remain at or above freezing, limiting
accumulation on roadways. Higher elevations above 7500 feet in
southwest MT could see 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  37  51  33 /  70 100  30  10
CTB  67  36  50  32 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  67  36  52  35 /  80 100  30  20
BZN  70  32  51  30 /  60  90  40  30
WEY  60  28  43  24 /  70  80  60  40
DLN  64  30  49  30 /  80  80  20  30
HVR  76  40  57  33 /  20 100  40  30
LWT  71  34  50  29 /  30  90  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221002
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
402 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 30 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WARM AND DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOWER 80S THAT SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT IF A BROADER BREAK IN CLOUDS DEVELOPS ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH
BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. STRONG PVA SPREADS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO GO WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR FORCING. THESE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EASTWARD REACHING BILLING
LATE IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING THROUGH FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 4
TO 6KFT SO HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH STORMS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 50 MPH DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL MIXING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 50
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE TROF FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINES WITH LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A COLD AND WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SNOW IS PART OF THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

BEFORE THE WEEKEND THURSDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ROTATING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINING DECREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE. ALSO WILL SEE
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

FRIDAY SHORT LIVED RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS OVER WYOMING AND
CAUSES A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING TOO WARM BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MONTANA NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION...PRECIPITATION HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY
LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MODELS DEEPEN A WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AT
THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT STRENGTHENS THE PROCESSES STARTED
ON SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LIFT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF STAYING SNOW ON SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND ADDED SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST MONTANA
COULD STAY IN THE COLD AND WET. WESTERN AREAS WILL START SEEING A
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL SEE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AS BROAD
RIDGING HEADS INTO THE WEST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS AROUND KLVM AROUND 21Z SPREADING EAST TO KBIL BY 03Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE INTENSE AND PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
SMALL HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR ANY STORMS.
STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NEAR ANY STORMS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 044/055 037/060 036/059 038/049 035/043 031/052
    2/T 52/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    54/W    32/W
LVM 070 037/049 034/060 035/061 035/049 034/049 029/056
    5/T 63/W    43/W    23/W    45/W    54/W    22/W
HDN 077 045/058 035/060 033/061 037/055 034/045 030/052
    2/T 52/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    65/W    32/W
MLS 076 048/059 037/059 032/055 035/044 033/041 028/049
    1/B 63/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    76/W    43/W
4BQ 077 050/059 035/059 032/056 034/051 032/046 028/050
    1/B 33/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    66/W    43/W
BHK 071 049/059 035/056 029/050 031/042 028/038 025/045
    0/N 43/W    22/W    11/B    45/W    66/J    43/W
SHR 075 043/054 032/058 033/061 036/059 036/046 032/051
    1/E 33/W    33/W    22/W    43/W    65/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 220914
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
314 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY TO GIVE MANY AREAS HIGHS IN THE
70S.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG LEE SIDE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
MONTANA WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. WITH THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
MOISTURE SPREADING IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE EAST. SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW A DRY SLOT
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THAT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE WEST (BACK) SIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA MAINLY ON THURSDAY. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOCUS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE COLD AND
WET STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC MODELS REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE...BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE COLDER EC
SOLUTION HAS GENERALLY HELD ITS GROUND WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER EC SOLUTION. THIS INCREASE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING
A COLD AND WET STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THIS
UP-COMING WEEKEND.

AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE
RIGHT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS FOR AT LEAST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...AND
QUITE LIKELY EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. CHOSE TO TREND POPS UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE. AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET SNOW STORM FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...CHOSE TO INCLUDE SOME LOWER SNOW RATIOS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY.

AS THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM...CHOSE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE CONS MODEL BLENDS. COULD ALSO EASILY SEE SOME
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DURING SNOW FALL PORTION OF THIS STORM...AS
HIGH AS 30 SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.

OVERALL...DETAILS OF COURSE FOR THIS STORM STILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO THE POINT
WHERE WE MAY NEED TO RAMP UP OUR DSS EFFORTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RECENT
NICE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER MAY HAVE GIVEN MANY PEOPLE A FALSE
SENSE OF SECURITY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEGATIVELY
IMPACT MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING SPRING
SEASON SCHOOL SPORTS. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND PASS
CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...UP TO AS STRONG AS 20 KTS BY THIS EVENING.
TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST 9000
FEET OFF THE SURFACE...BUT IF ANY OF THEM HAPPEN TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVER A TAF SITE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BE IMPACTED. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 220908
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
308 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...Several impacts today and Wednesday from a change in
the overall weather pattern ushered in by a cold front today.

First, the cold front will move across the region today, with most
of the action occurring this afternoon and evening. Expect a brief
period of increased winds as the front passes, otherwise it will
be breezy today. A recent change in the model forecasts has the
front intensifying over the Continental Divide this afternoon and
evening. As a result, Georgetown, Anaconda, Deer Lodge, and Butte
could see half an inch or more of rain and some snow by Wednesday
morning, with higher amounts in the mountains. There is also a
slight chance of thunderstorms along the Continental Divide late
this afternoon and this evening.

Most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain, but there
is considerable uncertainty in the snow levels, especially with
the heavier precipitation. The main area of concern is again
Georgetown to Butte. This area will be monitored closely for a
potential winter weather advisory. Ground temperatures are very
warm right now, with sub-surface temperatures over 50 degrees in
many places. As a result, significant snow accumulation on roads
is not expected except in areas of heavy snow. Otherwise, expect
snow on elevated surfaces and the grass.

Most mountain passes are also expected to get some snow. While
snow levels are now very high, it will start as rain today and
turn to snow around midnight. Accumulations on the roads are
uncertain due to the very warm ground temperatures. If it does
accumulate it will be very slushy on the roads under the heaviest
showers.

Wednesday showers will continue, but the dominant impact will be
the wind. Again the biggest impacts will be from Georgetown to
Butte and along the Continental Divide with 20 mph winds gusting
near 40 mph regularly in the afternoon.

Thursday through Sunday...The active weather pattern will continue
as the models are now favoring a broad scale trough of low
pressure over the Northern Rockies region. In fact, this pattern
is beginning to look very similar to the weather pattern expected
during the next couple of days (today and Wednesday). This deep
trough will be able to tap into some sub-tropical moisture and
transport it northward into the region. Thus, we have increased
the chances of precipitation. Temperatures will be running a few
degrees cooler than normal thanks to cloud cover and potential for
precipitation.

Monday through Tuesday...Latest runs of the medium range forecast
models have been hinting at a ridge building into the region. If
models remain consistent with this pattern change, we will return
to warmer, dry conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...Increasing mid and low level clouds today as large
trough and cold front move into the northern Rockies. Frontal
passage is expected this afternoon and evening with lowering
ceilings, increasing mountain obscurations, and a rain-snow mix.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 220427
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 220427
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTFX 220427
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 220427
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0425Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region ahead of the trof during the morning
with showers developing over the western mountains. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoon and scattered
thunderstorms will develop. A cold front will cross the Rockies
early Tuesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms will move east
with this front during the afternoon. The front should be near KHVR
and LWT around 03z Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail through
the afternoon except local MVFR conditions possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MFR conditions are expected after frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov








000
FXUS65 KTFX 220310
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







000
FXUS65 KTFX 220310
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast tonight. Temperatures will
continue to cool overnight as cloud cover moves in ahead of the
next weather system expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014/
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$


weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220306 AAA
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WAS ADVANCING TOWARD THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. FLOW OVER MONTANA WAS BACKING ALOFT AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO
INFILTRATE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. POPS
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND THAT LOOKS
REALLY GOOD AS MODELS WERE CONSISTENT ON THAT. NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE WEST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE
MAIN PLAYER IN THE COMING WEEK. SHORT TERM PROGGS ARE HAVING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE
SLOWEST SOLUTION. WE WILL BLEND SOLUTIONS AS SEE NO REASON YET TO
PREFER ONE OVER ANOTHER.

FOR TONIGHT...500MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH FLOW
TURNING SW LATE. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM COMING ASHORE SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS OVER
THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO FORECAST WAS TO PULL BACK POPS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS A BIT
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING SOMEWHAT. JET ALOFT IS ORIENTED SOUTH
TO NORTH AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOIST FLOW AND DYNAMICS ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. AS A MATTER OF FACT...WE COULD SEE A STRONG
CELL OR TWO IN OUR AREA...SUCH AS AROUND HARLOWTON...LATE TUESDAY
AS SHEAR PROFILES LOOK GOOD AND THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT.THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL 06Z- 09Z EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE SURGE SHOOTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN MONTANA. I EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP WIND SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
EACH SUGGESTING A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE MAINLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEXT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A RATHER WINDY
PERIOD WEDNESDAY THAT MIGHT LEAD TO SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING
HIT. HOWEVER...850MB AND 700MB WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS I
WOULD LIKE TO SEE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ONLY IMPRESSIVE FOR A
SHORT TIME. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH WIND WATCH...AND
HIT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY TWO DISTINCT
MODES. FIRST SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...THEN
ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS MAINLY AGREE ON SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THE EC IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE EC REMAINS THE COLDER MODEL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DESPITE VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THE OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SOLUTION...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS TO DEAL WITH PROBLEMS IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE MODELS.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A STRONG PACIFIC FLOW OFF THE WEST
COAST...BUT DIFFER ON WHETHER THE FLOW WILL BE MORE SPLIT...AS IN
THE GFS AND GEM...OR A MORE COHERENT JET TO OUR SOUTH...AS IN THE
EC. THIS ALLOWS THE EC TO BRING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND COLDER
SURFACE AIR FARTHER WEST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS THE
GFS AND GEM ARE ON THE WARMER END OF THE SPECTRUM. THE EC
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER...BELIEVE THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
TOO AGGRESSIVE...AND THAT A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY.

EITHER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME VERY WEAK QG FORCING THAT WOULD AID IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAINS FAIRLY
LOW. HOWEVER...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO
ADVERTISE A CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
IMPACT KLVM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR AFTER 21Z. CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/074 045/056 036/060 036/059 038/058 038/052 034/058
    01/E    54/W    23/W    22/W    33/W    44/W    32/W
LVM 044/070 039/052 035/060 035/061 035/055 034/052 029/058
    13/T    43/W    33/W    23/W    45/W    44/W    22/W
HDN 040/076 047/058 033/060 033/061 037/058 038/053 033/058
    01/E    44/W    34/W    22/W    33/W    44/W    32/W
MLS 043/076 049/060 036/059 032/055 035/056 037/051 032/056
    01/B    33/W    24/W    21/B    33/W    44/W    32/W
4BQ 042/077 049/060 033/059 032/056 034/058 036/053 031/056
    01/B    23/T    23/W    21/B    33/W    44/W    42/W
BHK 039/072 047/061 034/056 029/050 031/050 033/045 029/051
    00/N    32/T    23/W    21/B    23/W    44/W    32/W
SHR 041/074 044/057 034/058 033/061 036/061 036/053 033/055
    01/B    24/W    23/W    22/W    33/W    44/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 220104 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
704 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURE AND
CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.  PROTON

UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AS STRONG TROF APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
TROF WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. ALSO
EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROF.

LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST. WITH THE BACKING
WINDS ALOFT AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROF...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED WEST...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
TAPER OFF AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN A DRY
SLOT RESULTING IN RAINFALL SHUTTING OFF ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA ON THURSDAY EXPECT
WRAP-AROUND RAINFALL TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. AS COLDER AIR DRAINS
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE RAIN MAY AGAIN END AS A
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER NEXT WEEKEND HOWEVER WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD THIS FAR OUT MAKES
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THOUGH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 850MB JET IN THE
REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED
AS THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST DRAWS NEAR. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND CHANCE IN THE NORTH AS MODELS
HINT AS POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN EXCEPT NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A MIX WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE
WINDY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT.

LOOK FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO POINTING TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCKING TYPE
RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECASTED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTA. THE MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
THE RIDGE. GFS FOR THE MOST PART WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS
TO BRING THAT MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO
15 KTS BEGINNING TONIGHT. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 220104 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
704 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURE AND
CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.  PROTON

UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AS STRONG TROF APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
TROF WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. ALSO
EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROF.

LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST. WITH THE BACKING
WINDS ALOFT AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN...AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROF...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED WEST...AND
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE WILL CAUSE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
TAPER OFF AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN A DRY
SLOT RESULTING IN RAINFALL SHUTTING OFF ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA ON THURSDAY EXPECT
WRAP-AROUND RAINFALL TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. AS COLDER AIR DRAINS
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE RAIN MAY AGAIN END AS A
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER NEXT WEEKEND HOWEVER WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD THIS FAR OUT MAKES
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS THOUGH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN 850MB JET IN THE
REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED
AS THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST DRAWS NEAR. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND CHANCE IN THE NORTH AS MODELS
HINT AS POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN EXCEPT NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A MIX WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE
WINDY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT.

LOOK FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS NOW SEEM TO POINTING TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCKING TYPE
RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT MONDAY. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECASTED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTA. THE MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
THE RIDGE. GFS FOR THE MOST PART WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS
TO BRING THAT MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO
15 KTS BEGINNING TONIGHT. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 212346
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov






000
FXUS65 KTFX 212346
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Quiet weather tonight will give way to a
more active weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. Expect a
Pacific Cold front to move through the region on Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead/along the front. The best
chance for storms will be from 3 pm Tue until 9 pm Tue. It looks
like the strongest storms should be in the Judith Basin and Fergus
Counties area...with some gusty winds/small hail possible in this
region. The rain will change to snow in the mountains. A few
inches of snow are possible at pass level...but the more
significant snow fall should fall mainly at ridge tops...so no
winter highlights at this time. Temperatures cool off on
Wednesday...and then continue to remain cool/seasonable for
Thurs/Fri. Additionally...strong winds are possible by early
Wednesday morning over the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains...thus this area is under a high wind watch. For
Thursday...just a passing shower is possible...but for
Friday...another cold front will move through the
region...producing a better chance for precipitation across much of
the region...especially on Friday afternoon. Brusda

Saturday through Monday...Though the medium range models continue to
have similar overall trends, the details differ somewhat. However,
the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are beginning to trend toward each
other a bit, so have maintained a compromise forecast for this
period. For Saturday through Saturday night, an upper level trough
of low pressure will continue to move across the Pacific coast
states into the Rocky Mountain region. The resulting moist southerly
flow aloft will keep a very good chance of showers over the area,
especially in the mountains. Temperatures Saturday will stay warm
enough to keep any potential for snow (more likely, a rain-snow mix)
above 7000 feet. Temperatures will then cool enough Saturday night
to potentially mix snow with the rain at lower elevations as well.
The airmass in southwest Montana may also become somewhat unstable
Saturday afternoon, for a slight chance of thunderstorms there. The
upper level trough axis will then gradually move east across Montana
through the remainder of the period, for a decreasing chance of
showers. However, the main difference in the forecast models is just
how cold it will get. The GFS keeps a frontal boundary centered over
north central and southwest Montana, which keeps temperatures only 5
to 10 degrees below normal through the period. The ECMWF pushes the
boundary farther to the west and south, which allows the resulting
colder Canadian airmass to keep temperatures closer to 10 to 20
degrees below normal. As mentioned above, the models are trending
toward each other, as the GFS cools its temperatures slightly and
the ECMWF warms its temperatures slightly. The ECMWF seems to be
more of an outlier, so am leaning more towards the slightly warmer
GFS/consensus model solution for now and will continue to monitor
the progress of these solutions.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2344Z.
A high pressure ridge will be over central Montana tonight but a low
pressure trof will move over the West Coast by morning. Moisture
will increase over the region during the morning with showers
developing over the western mountains. The air mass will become
unstable during the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. A coldfront will cross the Rockies early Tuesday afternoon
and showers and thunderstorms will move east with this front during
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail except local MVFR
conditions possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Pacific cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. The
best potential area for any flooding to develop looks to be
Gallatin County. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this
region. The East Gallatin River is the river of main concern in
Gallatin County...but other rivers/creeks that are mountain feed
streams could possibly have problems. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible in other regions...but most precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a half inch or so...thus flooding is
not expected at this time. Should the precip amounts
change...additional flood highlights might be needed. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  72  39  52 /   0  70  90  30
CTB  40  68  36  51 /   0  70  90  30
HLN  45  69  37  54 /   0  70  90  50
BZN  42  72  33  52 /  10  60  90  60
WEY  36  60  28  43 /  20  70  80  70
DLN  42  65  31  50 /  10  80  90  40
HVR  42  78  40  58 /   0  30 100  60
LWT  42  71  36  51 /   0  40  90  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

FLOOD WATCH from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
Gallatin.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov







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