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000
FXUS65 KTFX 181730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Upper level trough will continue to push eastward through the
Northern Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this system
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
central and southwest portions of the region. Precipitation chances
diminish overnight but breezy to windy conditions are expected this
afternoon and again on Friday morning. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 181730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Upper level trough will continue to push eastward through the
Northern Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this system
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
central and southwest portions of the region. Precipitation chances
diminish overnight but breezy to windy conditions are expected this
afternoon and again on Friday morning. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 181730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Upper level trough will continue to push eastward through the
Northern Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this system
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
central and southwest portions of the region. Precipitation chances
diminish overnight but breezy to windy conditions are expected this
afternoon and again on Friday morning. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 181730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Upper level trough will continue to push eastward through the
Northern Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this system
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
central and southwest portions of the region. Precipitation chances
diminish overnight but breezy to windy conditions are expected this
afternoon and again on Friday morning. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 181605
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1005 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER GIVEN ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HRRR PROGGING SAID PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TOPPLING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND UNSETTLES THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS: SOME VICINITY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED AROUND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO BE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 181554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

WE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHILE INCREASING THE
POPS SOMEWHAT IN MANY AREAS IN RESPECT TO THE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS
MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES TOWARD MILES CITY...BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE ENOUGH FOR US
TO INCREASE POPS THAT DIRECTION AFTER 18 UTC TOO. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE ID PANHANDLE AND SO
WE DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH LOWERING HIGHS RIGHT NOW...BUT
IF CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG THEN OUR FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LIVINGSTON TOWARD BILLINGS. WE
WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF
ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE ATTAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS TODAY AND
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 083 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 088 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 088 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    4/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 092 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 181554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

WE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHILE INCREASING THE
POPS SOMEWHAT IN MANY AREAS IN RESPECT TO THE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS
MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES TOWARD MILES CITY...BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE ENOUGH FOR US
TO INCREASE POPS THAT DIRECTION AFTER 18 UTC TOO. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE ID PANHANDLE AND SO
WE DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH LOWERING HIGHS RIGHT NOW...BUT
IF CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG THEN OUR FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LIVINGSTON TOWARD BILLINGS. WE
WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF
ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE ATTAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS TODAY AND
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 083 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 088 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 088 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    4/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 092 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 181536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1136Z.
An upper level low pressure shortwave over the Pacific Northwest
will approach the Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
mainly the central and southwest portions of the region. The chance
for precipitation will diminish this evening and this shortwave will
move east of the region Friday

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 181536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1136Z.
An upper level low pressure shortwave over the Pacific Northwest
will approach the Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
mainly the central and southwest portions of the region. The chance
for precipitation will diminish this evening and this shortwave will
move east of the region Friday

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 181536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1136Z.
An upper level low pressure shortwave over the Pacific Northwest
will approach the Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
mainly the central and southwest portions of the region. The chance
for precipitation will diminish this evening and this shortwave will
move east of the region Friday

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 181536
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Scattered light rain showers are moving through south central
Montana this morning. This activity will continue to move
northeast along a line from Bozeman to Lewistown. Additional
showers are occurring west of the continental divide and will
maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Temperatures are warm this morning, and so have
adjusted the hourly forecast grids to better match observations. PN


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1136Z.
An upper level low pressure shortwave over the Pacific Northwest
will approach the Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
mainly the central and southwest portions of the region. The chance
for precipitation will diminish this evening and this shortwave will
move east of the region Friday

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014/
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  50  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  70  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 181139
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1136Z.
An upper level low pressure shortwave over the Pacific Northwest
will approach the Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
mainly the central and southwest portions of the region. The chance
for precipitation will diminish this evening and this shortwave will
move east of the region Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  40  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  60  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 181139
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1136Z.
An upper level low pressure shortwave over the Pacific Northwest
will approach the Rockies today. Moist, unsettled flow ahead of this
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
mainly the central and southwest portions of the region. The chance
for precipitation will diminish this evening and this shortwave will
move east of the region Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  40  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  60  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 181002
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
402 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As expected, showers and thunderstorms have
developed overnight across southern Idaho. This activity will
continue to move northeast across Lemhi County and southwest
Montana this morning. What perhaps hasn`t necessarily been
expected are the widespread radar echos over southwest Idaho and
eastern Oregon. Although there is little ground evidence to
suggest more than light sprinkles are hitting the ground, this
activity likely suggests that the push of moisture is a bit more
robust than models previously indicated. As such have increased
chances for precipitation across central Idaho and west central
Montana a bit for this morning with better chances still expected
late this morning through this afternoon in association with a
cold front passage.

A rather moist air mass will remain in place this evening. But
with limited instability believe showers will be largely limited
to the higher terrain and most numerous along the Montana/Idaho
border, northwest Montana and near the Canadian border. A few
showers may remain early Friday morning but instability begins to
wane during the afternoon as dry air works its way into the
region. Mostly clear conditions with calm winds will likely lead
to a seasonably cold Saturday morning with some patchy fog.
Temperatures will be right near normal Saturday afternoon as high
pressure begins to build over the area.

The next system will start to impact the Northern Rockies next
Wednesday and Thursday. There is still a lot of variability among
models on the details, but confidence is increasing quickly that
this will be a cool wet period.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the
vicinity of KSMN and KBTM this morning. However aside from
occasional lightning, the impact to visibility and cloud heights
is expected to be minimal. Elsewhere the affects of showers will
be even less. Some breezy conditions are expected this afternoon
as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 181002
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
402 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As expected, showers and thunderstorms have
developed overnight across southern Idaho. This activity will
continue to move northeast across Lemhi County and southwest
Montana this morning. What perhaps hasn`t necessarily been
expected are the widespread radar echos over southwest Idaho and
eastern Oregon. Although there is little ground evidence to
suggest more than light sprinkles are hitting the ground, this
activity likely suggests that the push of moisture is a bit more
robust than models previously indicated. As such have increased
chances for precipitation across central Idaho and west central
Montana a bit for this morning with better chances still expected
late this morning through this afternoon in association with a
cold front passage.

A rather moist air mass will remain in place this evening. But
with limited instability believe showers will be largely limited
to the higher terrain and most numerous along the Montana/Idaho
border, northwest Montana and near the Canadian border. A few
showers may remain early Friday morning but instability begins to
wane during the afternoon as dry air works its way into the
region. Mostly clear conditions with calm winds will likely lead
to a seasonably cold Saturday morning with some patchy fog.
Temperatures will be right near normal Saturday afternoon as high
pressure begins to build over the area.

The next system will start to impact the Northern Rockies next
Wednesday and Thursday. There is still a lot of variability among
models on the details, but confidence is increasing quickly that
this will be a cool wet period.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the
vicinity of KSMN and KBTM this morning. However aside from
occasional lightning, the impact to visibility and cloud heights
is expected to be minimal. Elsewhere the affects of showers will
be even less. Some breezy conditions are expected this afternoon
as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180902
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS.
EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 085 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 090 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 091 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    2/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 094 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 090 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180902
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS.
EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 085 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 090 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 091 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    2/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 094 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 090 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 180845
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
An increasing southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and
instability to the area after 18z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop after 21z across the southwest and then
move north and east. Surface winds will become gusty along the
Rocky Mountain Front after 18z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms along with
gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  40  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  60  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 180845
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A low pressure moving in over the Pacific
Northwest continues to push moisture and instability into the
region from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be seen today over Southwest and South Central Montana, with
the best chance for precipitation over Southwest Montana. Things
look quieter for the weekend as high pressure nudges towards the
region, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out, mostly for
Southwest Montana. High temperatures will be in the 80s today
before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...High pressure will be building
over the region Saturday night and the ridge will be over Central
Montana by Sunday. Moisture will begin to move north underneath the
ridge but convection will remain south of the zones. The ridge will
begin to move east of the zones Monday and a shortwave will
approach the Rockies. The air mass will remain very dry and only the
extreme southwest should see any convection. Moisture will slowly
increase across the region Monday night and Tuesday and by Wednesday
afternoon a low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will be
approaching the West Coast. The GFS is faster with this feature and
has it moved over the West Coast by 00z Thu. The ECMWF, slower, has
it hanging back over 135W. The GFS solution would bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft across the zones Thursday night and Friday, It
would also create an unstable air mass with showers and
thunderstorms likely lasting into the night as the trof continues to
approach the Rockies. However, with the ECMWF keeping the trof west,
and the GEM more in line with the ECMWF as well, will keep pops near
climo and wait for the models to come more into agreement.
Temperatures will remain well above normals through the period
although the GFS solution would bring significant cooling on
Thursday. Will keep more moderate temps due to the disagreement in
the models. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
An increasing southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and
instability to the area after 18z. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop after 21z across the southwest and then
move north and east. Surface winds will become gusty along the
Rocky Mountain Front after 18z. VFR conditions prevail with MVFR
conditions possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms along with
gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  53  74  47 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  81  47  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  82  52  75  47 /  40  20  10   0
BZN  79  46  74  42 /  40  30  10   0
WEY  71  38  66  33 /  70  60  20  10
DLN  78  47  73  44 /  60  30  10   0
HVR  86  53  77  48 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  83  52  75  47 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 180834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS CURRENTLY BEING MUTED OR
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARMING EFFECT REMAINING UNDER THE
WEAKENING RIDGE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SET OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOME VICINITY SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND KGDV...AND AMENDMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT EARLY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR KGDV WITH ANY PASSING STORMS. WINDS WILL THEN
GENERALLY RETURN TO LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
BMICKELSON




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 180834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS CURRENTLY BEING MUTED OR
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARMING EFFECT REMAINING UNDER THE
WEAKENING RIDGE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SET OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOME VICINITY SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND KGDV...AND AMENDMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT EARLY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR KGDV WITH ANY PASSING STORMS. WINDS WILL THEN
GENERALLY RETURN TO LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
BMICKELSON




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 180834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS CURRENTLY BEING MUTED OR
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARMING EFFECT REMAINING UNDER THE
WEAKENING RIDGE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SET OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOME VICINITY SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND KGDV...AND AMENDMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT EARLY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR KGDV WITH ANY PASSING STORMS. WINDS WILL THEN
GENERALLY RETURN TO LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
BMICKELSON




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 180834
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED TODAY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
80S IN MOST AREAS... MAY SEE AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON FORT PECK
LAKE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE SEEM TO BE THREE DIFFERENT FEATURES INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT IS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OR AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE THIRD IS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF U S AND CANADA.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEAR PERFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS DRY.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS. THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDER THE RIDGE VERY
SLOWLY EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...BUT AS IT DOES SO...THE GFS DISSOLVES IT NEARLY
COMPLETELY EAST OF US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS
IT AND PULLS IT DIRECTLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...AS THIS MOISTURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE EC SHOWS A WETTER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THING DRY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS OVERALL WEAK...CHOSE TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS HERE
AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LASTLY...THE CHAOS ENSUES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS
TRY TO DEPICT SOME KIND OF PATTERN CHANGE AND LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CHOSE TO INTRODUCE
SOME BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL
FORTHCOMING. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A LARGE AND LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHILE THE EC KEEPS A MORE NARROW TROUGH...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME KIND OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE REGION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREST IS CURRENTLY BEING MUTED OR
FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARMING EFFECT REMAINING UNDER THE
WEAKENING RIDGE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SET OFF SOME
CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOME VICINITY SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND KGDV...AND AMENDMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT EARLY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR KGDV WITH ANY PASSING STORMS. WINDS WILL THEN
GENERALLY RETURN TO LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.
BMICKELSON




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 180458
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall into
the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The remainder of
the forecast is on track so made no further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
The airmass will remain stable overnight. An increasing southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area after
18z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop after 21z
across the southwest and then move north and east. Surface winds
will become gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front after 18z. VFR
conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 180458
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall into
the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The remainder of
the forecast is on track so made no further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
The airmass will remain stable overnight. An increasing southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area after
18z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop after 21z
across the southwest and then move north and east. Surface winds
will become gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front after 18z. VFR
conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 180458
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall into
the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The remainder of
the forecast is on track so made no further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
The airmass will remain stable overnight. An increasing southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area after
18z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop after 21z
across the southwest and then move north and east. Surface winds
will become gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front after 18z. VFR
conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 180458
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall into
the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The remainder of
the forecast is on track so made no further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
The airmass will remain stable overnight. An increasing southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area after
18z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop after 21z
across the southwest and then move north and east. Surface winds
will become gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front after 18z. VFR
conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 180230
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...

Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall
into the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The
remainder of the forecast is on track so made no further changes.
MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0055Z.
High pressure over the area has weakened a little allowing weak
disturbances aloft to move across the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are decreasing as sunset approaches and convective
activity should end by 05z. Skies should remain partly cloudy
overnight. Winds will remain light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 180230
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...

Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall
into the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The
remainder of the forecast is on track so made no further changes.
MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0055Z.
High pressure over the area has weakened a little allowing weak
disturbances aloft to move across the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are decreasing as sunset approaches and convective
activity should end by 05z. Skies should remain partly cloudy
overnight. Winds will remain light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 180230
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...

Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall
into the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The
remainder of the forecast is on track so made no further changes.
MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0055Z.
High pressure over the area has weakened a little allowing weak
disturbances aloft to move across the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are decreasing as sunset approaches and convective
activity should end by 05z. Skies should remain partly cloudy
overnight. Winds will remain light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 180230
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...

Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall
into the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The
remainder of the forecast is on track so made no further changes.
MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0055Z.
High pressure over the area has weakened a little allowing weak
disturbances aloft to move across the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are decreasing as sunset approaches and convective
activity should end by 05z. Skies should remain partly cloudy
overnight. Winds will remain light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
REDUCED VIS IN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
REDUCED VIS IN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180213
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180213
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180213
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180213
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 180156
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
756 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR HIGH LOWS ALONG THE CMR AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA VALLEYS AS PER PREVIOUS
NIGHT/S TRENDS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD
BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE UP AND AROUND THE
CREST OF A RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK-
DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THE LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH/BLM




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 180156
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
756 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR HIGH LOWS ALONG THE CMR AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA VALLEYS AS PER PREVIOUS
NIGHT/S TRENDS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.   PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD
BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE UP AND AROUND THE
CREST OF A RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK-
DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THE LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH/BLM




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 180101
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0055Z.
High pressure over the area has weakened a little allowing weak
disturbances aloft to move across the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are decreasing as sunset approaches and convective
activity should end by 05z. Skies should remain partly cloudy
overnight. Winds will remain light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  20  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172106
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
306 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    12/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    23/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    12/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    12/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 172048
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
248 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO INTO THE
LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 172048
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
248 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PETROLEUM COUNTY THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE...CREATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY...AS WELL AS WIBAUX COUNTY.
THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW FURTHER EAST WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

THURSDAY NIGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN.

FRIDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
WITH EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT GOING ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SAW NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN AT THIS TIME. HAVE
RAISED POPS FROM ZERO TO MENTION OR NON-MENTION LEVELS TUESDAY
ONWARD AND CHAOS QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO INTO THE
LATE TAF CYCLE.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH




&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KTFX 172033
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
233 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  20  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 172033
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
233 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  20  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 172033
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
233 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  20  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 172033
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
233 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  20  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  20  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  20  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KMSO 172023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A marginally unstable atmosphere will linger into
this evening over mainly southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A weather disturbance is expected to move across north central
Idaho and west central/southwest Montana late tonight and Thursday
morning producing a few more showers.

A splitting and weakening trough of low pressure should shift
across the northern Rockies Thursday afternoon and evening. Again,
the best energy and moisture should be over southwest Montana and
Lemhi County.

The air mass will cool Thursday night into Friday, with some
drying and stabilization also expected. This should translate into
a quite cool night in the valleys Friday night.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over north
central Idaho and western Montana Saturday into Monday. This means
mostly clear skies, cool nights and quite warm afternoons (with
above normal day time temperatures). The exception may be Lemhi
County or the southern Clearwaters where some moisture from a
Great Basin weather system may creep northward by Monday.

In the longer term, recent model runs are trending towards a
wetter and cooler pattern by mid to end of next week. However,
there is still run to run inconsistencies and timing, so at this
point we have only made a modest adjustment towards a return of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers over central Idaho and southwest Montana may reach
KSMN and KBTM this afternoon and early evening, but no significant
impacts to aviation are expected. Showers will redevelop in the
same areas by Thursday morning, with a better chance of rain
reaching both terminals. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will
continue, along with light winds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 172023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A marginally unstable atmosphere will linger into
this evening over mainly southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A weather disturbance is expected to move across north central
Idaho and west central/southwest Montana late tonight and Thursday
morning producing a few more showers.

A splitting and weakening trough of low pressure should shift
across the northern Rockies Thursday afternoon and evening. Again,
the best energy and moisture should be over southwest Montana and
Lemhi County.

The air mass will cool Thursday night into Friday, with some
drying and stabilization also expected. This should translate into
a quite cool night in the valleys Friday night.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over north
central Idaho and western Montana Saturday into Monday. This means
mostly clear skies, cool nights and quite warm afternoons (with
above normal day time temperatures). The exception may be Lemhi
County or the southern Clearwaters where some moisture from a
Great Basin weather system may creep northward by Monday.

In the longer term, recent model runs are trending towards a
wetter and cooler pattern by mid to end of next week. However,
there is still run to run inconsistencies and timing, so at this
point we have only made a modest adjustment towards a return of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers over central Idaho and southwest Montana may reach
KSMN and KBTM this afternoon and early evening, but no significant
impacts to aviation are expected. Showers will redevelop in the
same areas by Thursday morning, with a better chance of rain
reaching both terminals. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will
continue, along with light winds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 172023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A marginally unstable atmosphere will linger into
this evening over mainly southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A weather disturbance is expected to move across north central
Idaho and west central/southwest Montana late tonight and Thursday
morning producing a few more showers.

A splitting and weakening trough of low pressure should shift
across the northern Rockies Thursday afternoon and evening. Again,
the best energy and moisture should be over southwest Montana and
Lemhi County.

The air mass will cool Thursday night into Friday, with some
drying and stabilization also expected. This should translate into
a quite cool night in the valleys Friday night.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over north
central Idaho and western Montana Saturday into Monday. This means
mostly clear skies, cool nights and quite warm afternoons (with
above normal day time temperatures). The exception may be Lemhi
County or the southern Clearwaters where some moisture from a
Great Basin weather system may creep northward by Monday.

In the longer term, recent model runs are trending towards a
wetter and cooler pattern by mid to end of next week. However,
there is still run to run inconsistencies and timing, so at this
point we have only made a modest adjustment towards a return of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers over central Idaho and southwest Montana may reach
KSMN and KBTM this afternoon and early evening, but no significant
impacts to aviation are expected. Showers will redevelop in the
same areas by Thursday morning, with a better chance of rain
reaching both terminals. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will
continue, along with light winds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 172023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A marginally unstable atmosphere will linger into
this evening over mainly southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A weather disturbance is expected to move across north central
Idaho and west central/southwest Montana late tonight and Thursday
morning producing a few more showers.

A splitting and weakening trough of low pressure should shift
across the northern Rockies Thursday afternoon and evening. Again,
the best energy and moisture should be over southwest Montana and
Lemhi County.

The air mass will cool Thursday night into Friday, with some
drying and stabilization also expected. This should translate into
a quite cool night in the valleys Friday night.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over north
central Idaho and western Montana Saturday into Monday. This means
mostly clear skies, cool nights and quite warm afternoons (with
above normal day time temperatures). The exception may be Lemhi
County or the southern Clearwaters where some moisture from a
Great Basin weather system may creep northward by Monday.

In the longer term, recent model runs are trending towards a
wetter and cooler pattern by mid to end of next week. However,
there is still run to run inconsistencies and timing, so at this
point we have only made a modest adjustment towards a return of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers over central Idaho and southwest Montana may reach
KSMN and KBTM this afternoon and early evening, but no significant
impacts to aviation are expected. Showers will redevelop in the
same areas by Thursday morning, with a better chance of rain
reaching both terminals. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will
continue, along with light winds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 171730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
The morning forecast is on track...with no updates.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the southern portions
of the region today...as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Afternoon highs will generally be quite a bit above normal...with
highs mostly in the 80s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 171730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
The morning forecast is on track...with no updates.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the southern portions
of the region today...as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Afternoon highs will generally be quite a bit above normal...with
highs mostly in the 80s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 171730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
The morning forecast is on track...with no updates.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the southern portions
of the region today...as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Afternoon highs will generally be quite a bit above normal...with
highs mostly in the 80s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 171730
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
The morning forecast is on track...with no updates.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the southern portions
of the region today...as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Afternoon highs will generally be quite a bit above normal...with
highs mostly in the 80s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
A weakening upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will
allow a series of weak weather disturbances to move NE across SW and
Central MT in SW flow aloft through tomorrow afternoon. High level
cloud-cover will spread NE into the region early this afternoon with
a few isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/early
evening, mainly south of a line from KGTF to KLWT. Winds will remain
generally light through tonight. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 171613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1013 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE POPPED
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THUS UPDATED TO PUT MENTION INTO
THE FORECAST. THESE SAME DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS INCREASED POPS THERE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED JUST
BEYOND THE CYCLE AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 171613
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1013 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE POPPED
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THUS UPDATED TO PUT MENTION INTO
THE FORECAST. THESE SAME DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND
WIBAUX COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS INCREASED POPS THERE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE AROUND THE EDGE OF A
RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND CREATE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. RIDGE BREAK DOWN IS ANTICIPATED JUST
BEYOND THE CYCLE AND COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOG: NAM MODEL IS HINTING AT ISOLATED VALLEY FOG ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD IMPACT KOLF BETWEEN 09-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEM HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND
HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KTFX 171553
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
953 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
The morning forecast is on track...with no updates.
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the southern portions
of the region today...as an upper level disturbance moves through.
Afternoon highs will generally be quite a bit above normal...with
highs mostly in the 80s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1105Z.
An upper level high pressure ridge will remain over Central Montana
today and tonight. The air mass will become slightly unstable this
afternoon but most convection should be restricted to extreme
Southwest Montana. An upper level shortwave will move into the
Pacific Northwest Thursday. Moisture will increase over the region
ahead of this feature Thursday along with an increasing chance of
precipitation. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171454
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN ZONES...DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS THE DISTURBANCE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL A NICE
LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE
THURSDAY ARRIVAL WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVER ACHIEVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTYWITH
TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR MOUNTAINS. HAVE
INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    2/W 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    2/W 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    1/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    2/W 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171454
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN ZONES...DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS THE DISTURBANCE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL A NICE
LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE
THURSDAY ARRIVAL WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVER ACHIEVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTYWITH
TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR MOUNTAINS. HAVE
INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    2/W 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    2/W 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    1/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    2/W 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 171106
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1105Z.
An upper level high pressure ridge will remain over Central Montana
today and tonight. The air mass will become slightly unstable this
afternoon but most convection should be restricted to extreme
Southwest Montana. An upper level shortwave will move into the
Pacific Northwest Thursday. Moisture will increase over the region
ahead of this feature Thursday along with an increasing chance of
precipitation. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 171106
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
506 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1105Z.
An upper level high pressure ridge will remain over Central Montana
today and tonight. The air mass will become slightly unstable this
afternoon but most convection should be restricted to extreme
Southwest Montana. An upper level shortwave will move into the
Pacific Northwest Thursday. Moisture will increase over the region
ahead of this feature Thursday along with an increasing chance of
precipitation. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KMSO 170940
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...Today the upper level high pressure ridge will
gradually shift east resulting in an unseasonably hot and breezy
afternoon. Today should be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures peaking around 10 degrees above normal. Showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible over Lemhi County and perhaps as
far north as the Anaconda/Butte areas late this afternoon into
this evening.

A more focused push of moisture and energy has consistently been
forecast in the models to move from California towards Idaho and
Montana starting overnight tonight. This disturbance will initiate
widespread showers early Thursday morning with the best chances
for precipitation likely south of a line from Grangeville to
Missoula to Seeley Lake. But the heaviest or more persistent
precipitation will be over Lemhi County and the Butte/Blackfoot
Region. Elsewhere showers and thunderstorms will become
increasingly possible as instability grows due to an approaching
upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Cooler
conditions will be on hand Friday with showers tapering off Friday
night as drier air moves into the region to start the weekend.

The weekend through early next week will see above average
temperatures with a warming trend. Next Wednesday or Thursday is
really the next chance for any precipitation. However, models are
having a hard time handling the long term effects of all the
current tropical activity, which is causing a lot of variability
in the forecasts starting mid next week. Started to raise the
chances of precipitation next Wednesday and Thursday because
models are uncertain of a wet or dry pattern, and the current
tropical activity favors an active weather pattern across the
northern hemisphere next week.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible in the vicinity of KSMN and KBTM late this
afternoon into this evening. Conditions will become increasingly
more favorable for for precipitation and lowering cloud heights at
these same locations by Thursday morning. Elsewhere few, if any
impacts to aviation are expected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 170940
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...Today the upper level high pressure ridge will
gradually shift east resulting in an unseasonably hot and breezy
afternoon. Today should be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures peaking around 10 degrees above normal. Showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible over Lemhi County and perhaps as
far north as the Anaconda/Butte areas late this afternoon into
this evening.

A more focused push of moisture and energy has consistently been
forecast in the models to move from California towards Idaho and
Montana starting overnight tonight. This disturbance will initiate
widespread showers early Thursday morning with the best chances
for precipitation likely south of a line from Grangeville to
Missoula to Seeley Lake. But the heaviest or more persistent
precipitation will be over Lemhi County and the Butte/Blackfoot
Region. Elsewhere showers and thunderstorms will become
increasingly possible as instability grows due to an approaching
upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Cooler
conditions will be on hand Friday with showers tapering off Friday
night as drier air moves into the region to start the weekend.

The weekend through early next week will see above average
temperatures with a warming trend. Next Wednesday or Thursday is
really the next chance for any precipitation. However, models are
having a hard time handling the long term effects of all the
current tropical activity, which is causing a lot of variability
in the forecasts starting mid next week. Started to raise the
chances of precipitation next Wednesday and Thursday because
models are uncertain of a wet or dry pattern, and the current
tropical activity favors an active weather pattern across the
northern hemisphere next week.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible in the vicinity of KSMN and KBTM late this
afternoon into this evening. Conditions will become increasingly
more favorable for for precipitation and lowering cloud heights at
these same locations by Thursday morning. Elsewhere few, if any
impacts to aviation are expected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KGGW 170900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD...MORE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALLOWING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS/SKY COVER...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND AROUND THE
RIDGE CREST THAT PERIODS OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER
MOST OF THE SKY...ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES.

WINDS...
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IF NOT CALM BOTH EARLY AND
LATE WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS.

KGDV...
WITH THE OBSERVATION AT KGDV OUT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND NO
KNOWN RETURN TO SERVICE TIME...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF
THERE WITH NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 170900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREAS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVER EASTERN MONTANA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL START TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THEN... A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
AREAS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARDS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING A HIGH LEVEL OF FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A PARTING AND GLANCING PASS OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN-STREAM
CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND NO
PRECIPITATION UNDER ANOTHER PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR RATHER A BENIGN FLOW PATTERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY CHAOTIC PATTERN OF HIGHLY DISAGREEABLE
WEATHER MODELS IMPLIES A VERY LOW LEVEL OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MYSTERY BEING WHAT KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD...MORE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALLOWING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS/SKY COVER...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND AROUND THE
RIDGE CREST THAT PERIODS OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER
MOST OF THE SKY...ALTERNATING WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES.

WINDS...
EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IF NOT CALM BOTH EARLY AND
LATE WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS.

KGDV...
WITH THE OBSERVATION AT KGDV OUT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND NO
KNOWN RETURN TO SERVICE TIME...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF
THERE WITH NO AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170856
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVERACHEIVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTIANTY
WITH TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUEDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    1/B 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    1/B 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    0/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    1/B 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170856
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVERACHEIVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTIANTY
WITH TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUEDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    1/B 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    1/B 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    0/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    1/B 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 170840
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT is now mostly east of the
Continental Divide and will continue to move eastward through the
state tonight.  VFR conditions expected with some decrease in
overall cloud coverage overnight.  But additional moisture heading
into southwest Idaho will arrive in our region late morning/early
aftn tomorrow, bringing a return of widespread BKN-OVC high-level
clouds.  Forecast models still indicating a slight chance of -SHRA
vcnty KBZN/KHLN tomorrow evening so have included mention of VCSH at
those terminals.  Winds will remain light through Wed morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 170840
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A low pressure system off the Pacific
coast continues to push moisture and instability into the region.
Wednesday afternoon and evening may bring some isolated
thunderstorms to Southwest and South Central Montana, with chances
increasing further north and east Thursday afternoon. Best chance
for precipitation looks to be over Southwest Montana. Things look
quieter Friday as high pressure nudges towards the region, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will be in
the 80s today and Thursday before cooling 5 to 10 degrees Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT is now mostly east of the
Continental Divide and will continue to move eastward through the
state tonight.  VFR conditions expected with some decrease in
overall cloud coverage overnight.  But additional moisture heading
into southwest Idaho will arrive in our region late morning/early
aftn tomorrow, bringing a return of widespread BKN-OVC high-level
clouds.  Forecast models still indicating a slight chance of -SHRA
vcnty KBZN/KHLN tomorrow evening so have included mention of VCSH at
those terminals.  Winds will remain light through Wed morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  55  82  52 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  82  48  81  47 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  85  53  81  51 /  10  10  30  20
BZN  82  49  78  46 /  10  10  30  30
WEY  74  39  71  38 /  20  20  60  40
DLN  82  52  76  47 /  20  20  60  30
HVR  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  85  56  82  52 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 170420
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Slightly earlier than usual update tonight. A line of
thunderstorms between Lincoln and Butte will continue to move east
through the evening hours, likely impacting Helena by around 9 pm
and weakening as it continues east across the Big Belts and into
the Little Belts by 11 pm. Brief heavy rain is possible from these
storms, but the primary threat will be wind gusts to around 40
mph. Weaker storms will persist through the evening as well
through far southwest Montana, including the Dillon and Ennis
areas, likely moving into the Bozeman area after 9 pm. Am not
expecting much from them, though. Models indicate that there will
be at least a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms lingering
after midnight between the Little Belts and the Gallatin Range,
so have kept mention there. Otherwise, the forecast seems to be on
track, but have lowered tonight`s lows 2 to 3 degrees to better
match the overnight temperature trend.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT is now mostly east of the
Continental Divide and will continue to move eastward through the
state tonight.  VFR conditions expected with some decrease in
overall cloud coverage overnight.  But additional moisture heading
into southwest Idaho will arrive in our region late morning/early
aftn tomorrow, bringing a return of widespread BKN-OVC high-level
clouds.  Forecast models still indicating a slight chance of -SHRA
vcnty KBZN/KHLN tomorrow evening so have included mention of VCSH at
those terminals.  Winds will remain light through Wed morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  84  54  81 /  10   0   0  20
CTB  42  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  50  87  53  82 /  50   0  10  30
BZN  45  84  49  76 /  30  10  10  30
WEY  34  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  46  83  52  77 /  30  20  20  40
HVR  45  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  49  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 170420
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Slightly earlier than usual update tonight. A line of
thunderstorms between Lincoln and Butte will continue to move east
through the evening hours, likely impacting Helena by around 9 pm
and weakening as it continues east across the Big Belts and into
the Little Belts by 11 pm. Brief heavy rain is possible from these
storms, but the primary threat will be wind gusts to around 40
mph. Weaker storms will persist through the evening as well
through far southwest Montana, including the Dillon and Ennis
areas, likely moving into the Bozeman area after 9 pm. Am not
expecting much from them, though. Models indicate that there will
be at least a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms lingering
after midnight between the Little Belts and the Gallatin Range,
so have kept mention there. Otherwise, the forecast seems to be on
track, but have lowered tonight`s lows 2 to 3 degrees to better
match the overnight temperature trend.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0415Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT is now mostly east of the
Continental Divide and will continue to move eastward through the
state tonight.  VFR conditions expected with some decrease in
overall cloud coverage overnight.  But additional moisture heading
into southwest Idaho will arrive in our region late morning/early
aftn tomorrow, bringing a return of widespread BKN-OVC high-level
clouds.  Forecast models still indicating a slight chance of -SHRA
vcnty KBZN/KHLN tomorrow evening so have included mention of VCSH at
those terminals.  Winds will remain light through Wed morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  84  54  81 /  10   0   0  20
CTB  42  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  50  87  53  82 /  50   0  10  30
BZN  45  84  49  76 /  30  10  10  30
WEY  34  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  46  83  52  77 /  30  20  20  40
HVR  45  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  49  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 170215
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
815 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Slightly earlier than usual update tonight. A line of
thunderstorms between Lincoln and Butte will continue to move east
through the evening hours, likely impacting Helena by around 9 pm
and weakening as it continues east across the Big Belts and into
the Little Belts by 11 pm. Brief heavy rain is possible from these
storms, but the primary threat will be wind gusts to around 40
mph. Weaker storms will persist through the evening as well
through far southwest Montana, including the Dillon and Ennis
areas, likely moving into the Bozeman area after 9 pm. Am not
expecting much from them, though. Models indicate that there will
be at least a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms lingering
after midnight between the Little Belts and the Gallatin Range,
so have kept mention there. Otherwise, the forecast seems to be on
track, but have lowered tonight`s lows 2 to 3 degrees to better
match the overnight temperature trend.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT will continue to move
eastward through the state this evening.  Primary result will be
large areas of BKN-OVC high-level clouds across the region, with a
few -SHRA possible through 03-04Z near KBZN thanks to slightly more
unstable conditions there.  Winds will remain light this evening.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  84  54  81 /  10   0   0  20
CTB  42  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  50  87  53  82 /  50   0  10  30
BZN  45  84  49  76 /  30  10  10  30
WEY  34  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  46  83  52  77 /  30  20  20  40
HVR  45  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  49  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170210
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
810 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENERGY IMPACTING THE REGION IS SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND MAY RESULT IN A BIT LONGER PERIOD OF
MOUNTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED
POPS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED POPS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND INTO THE PARADISE VALLEY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY CLOSE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  STILL EXPECT
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    11/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    22/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170210
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
810 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENERGY IMPACTING THE REGION IS SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND MAY RESULT IN A BIT LONGER PERIOD OF
MOUNTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED
POPS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED POPS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND INTO THE PARADISE VALLEY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY CLOSE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  STILL EXPECT
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    11/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    22/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 170201
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
801 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...NO UPDATE. UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING FAIR SKIES OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.  PROTON

UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
UNLIMITED EARLY ON...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15
KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREATE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY.
MARTIN/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 170201
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
801 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...NO UPDATE. UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING FAIR SKIES OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.  PROTON

UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
UNLIMITED EARLY ON...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15
KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREATE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY.
MARTIN/BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 162328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT will continue to move
eastward through the state this evening.  Primary result will be
large areas of BKN-OVC high-level clouds across the region, with a
few -SHRA possible through 03-04Z near KBZN thanks to slightly more
unstable conditions there.  Winds will remain light this evening.
Waranauskas


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  44  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  52  87  53  82 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  47  84  49  76 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  36  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  48  83  52  77 /  10  20  20  40
HVR  47  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  51  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 162328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT will continue to move
eastward through the state this evening.  Primary result will be
large areas of BKN-OVC high-level clouds across the region, with a
few -SHRA possible through 03-04Z near KBZN thanks to slightly more
unstable conditions there.  Winds will remain light this evening.
Waranauskas


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  44  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  52  87  53  82 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  47  84  49  76 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  36  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  48  83  52  77 /  10  20  20  40
HVR  47  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  51  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 162048
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
248 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High level clouds are penetrating an upper level ridge over central
Montana today. Isolated high-based showers are possible over
southwest MT with weak afternoon instability, with thunderstorms
possible mainly south of KBZN. VFR conditions will prevail through
the next 24 hours. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  44  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  52  87  53  82 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  47  84  49  76 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  36  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  48  83  52  77 /  10  20  20  40
HVR  47  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  51  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 162048
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
248 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High level clouds are penetrating an upper level ridge over central
Montana today. Isolated high-based showers are possible over
southwest MT with weak afternoon instability, with thunderstorms
possible mainly south of KBZN. VFR conditions will prevail through
the next 24 hours. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  44  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  52  87  53  82 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  47  84  49  76 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  36  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  48  83  52  77 /  10  20  20  40
HVR  47  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  51  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162040
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    01/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    12/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162040
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    01/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    12/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162040
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    01/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    12/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162040
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    01/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    12/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 162037
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will continue to produce cloud
cover and a few light showers this afternoon and early evening. It
is possible to even see a few lightning strikes, although this
threat will mainly be across southwest Montana and Lemhi Co in
Idaho. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain itself over the
region through Wednesday. This will translate to continued above
normal temperatures. A few showers and thunderstorms will again
be possible Wednesday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes,
mainly across southwest Montana.

A change initiate Thursday as a weak cold front and upper level
trough begins to move through western Montana and north central
Idaho. This will lead to fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some forecast models indicate that convective
activity could begin a bit earlier than normal, possibly in the
mid morning hours. aside from clouds and periods of precipitation,
winds will become breezy from the west in the afternoon.

Friday will be the coolest day of the weak as northwest flow,
cloud cover and showers remain over the region. This cooler
pattern won`t last long however, as forecast models continue to
show a strong ridge of high pressure for the weekend. A return to
dry conditions with above normal temperatures can be expected into
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Increased mid to high level cloud cover will continue
to locally reduce ceilings across western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon and evening. A few embedded showers
and possibly even a thunderstorm is possible, mainly across Lemhi
Co in Idaho into southwest Montana, including airfields KSMN and
KBTM. Cloud cover and shower activity should be on the downward
trend this evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 162037
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will continue to produce cloud
cover and a few light showers this afternoon and early evening. It
is possible to even see a few lightning strikes, although this
threat will mainly be across southwest Montana and Lemhi Co in
Idaho. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain itself over the
region through Wednesday. This will translate to continued above
normal temperatures. A few showers and thunderstorms will again
be possible Wednesday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes,
mainly across southwest Montana.

A change initiate Thursday as a weak cold front and upper level
trough begins to move through western Montana and north central
Idaho. This will lead to fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some forecast models indicate that convective
activity could begin a bit earlier than normal, possibly in the
mid morning hours. aside from clouds and periods of precipitation,
winds will become breezy from the west in the afternoon.

Friday will be the coolest day of the weak as northwest flow,
cloud cover and showers remain over the region. This cooler
pattern won`t last long however, as forecast models continue to
show a strong ridge of high pressure for the weekend. A return to
dry conditions with above normal temperatures can be expected into
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Increased mid to high level cloud cover will continue
to locally reduce ceilings across western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon and evening. A few embedded showers
and possibly even a thunderstorm is possible, mainly across Lemhi
Co in Idaho into southwest Montana, including airfields KSMN and
KBTM. Cloud cover and shower activity should be on the downward
trend this evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KGGW 162033
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERAUTRES...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 162033
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR WARM TEMPERAUTRES...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE BROKEN DOWN BY
AN APPROACHING SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE A CAP PRESENT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS IN CHECK BUT WITH THAT POTENTIAL PRESENT PUT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

GENERAL LONG WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS BROKEN LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
WHEN AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MANAGES TO CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
EVENT IS PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY NEAR THE MONTANA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES UP AROUND
8000 FT. AGL AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN AROUND 3/4 INCHES...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TROUGH PASSAGE COMPLETES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF AND CUTS-OFF ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME
COOLING BUT PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S...AND HIGHS AROUND 80 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CREATE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY AND
VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MARTIN.

PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVES INLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY GIVING MONTANA WARM AND DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREATE CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND FL100 ON WEDNESDAY. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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