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000
FXUS65 KTFX 210001
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
High pressure will keep dry and stable conditions for the next 12
hours. Winds will be light over the plains and breezy along the
Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail. After 12Z clouds, and
the chance for showers, will increase from the southwest, spreading
over the plains by 18Z. Most locations will remain VFR with
intermittent periods of MVFR and isolated IFR in showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







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000
FXUS65 KGGW 202045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SO EXPECT
MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WIND BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15-25KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KGGW 202045
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SO EXPECT
MILD CONDITIONS...LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE DIVIDE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT WIND BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15-25KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 202025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft increases tonight
as an upper level trough, currently moving onto the West Coast,
moves inland. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing
cloudiness overnight with a few showers developing along the
Continental Divide late tonight in advance of the trough. The upper
level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves into the Great
Basin Tuesday then lifts NE across MT Tuesday night. The negative
tilt will slow the progression of the frontal boundary some and aid
in the development of a band of frontogenetic precipitation from SW
to NE across SW/W-Central MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. Frontal
boundary pushes east through the forecast area tomorrow afternoon
and evening with precipitation lingering over eastern zones through
late Tuesday night while areas further west begin to clear late
Tuesday evening behind the departing system. Drier conditions move
in Wednesday under weak upper level ridging with temperatures
cooling to near seasonal averages. Snow levels look to remain above
passes along the Continental Divide though most of the day tomorrow
then fall very late in the afternoon or evening to 5000-6000 ft. 1
to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible above 7000 ft in the
Elkhorn, Deer Lodge, Pioneer and Beaverhead mountain ranges with a
brief change-over to snow possible as precipitation ends Tuesday
evening over passes in these Mtn Ranges, however little to no
accumulation is expected on road surfaces. Hoenisch

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  60  38  60 /   0  60  40   0
CTB  44  55  37  61 /  10  60  20   0
HLN  45  59  37  60 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  40  63  31  56 /   0  40  50  10
WEY  32  48  24  46 /  10  60  50  10
DLN  44  58  31  56 /  10  60  50   0
HVR  41  65  41  62 /   0  30  30  10
LWT  47  69  39  60 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 202024
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
224 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...VERY WET MOUNTAIN SNOW TOMORROW...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, STARTING DURING THE MORNING IN CENTRAL IDAHO. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5,000 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WARM ROADS WILL HELP MELT THE SNOW ON MOST AREA ROADS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SUN IS STILL UP. HOWEVER, DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW, SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS IS
LIKELY.

A BIGGER IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BACKCOUNTRY WITH LATE
SEASON HIKERS AND HUNTERS. EVEN BEFORE IT STARTS SNOWING, THIS
WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THEN ONCE IT STARTS SNOWING IT WILL BE A VERY WET,
COLD, AND MISERABLE DAY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.

THE CURRENT SCENARIO HAS THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FEED INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO AND THE BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS, THEN ACROSS THE BITTERROOT
VALLEY INTO THE SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS. GEORGETOWN LAKE AND THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND ANACONDA AND BUTTE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. MOUNTAIN
RIDGES COULD SEE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SCATTERED
SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. A BRIEF LULL
IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY, AND COULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW IMPACTS FOR AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER
06Z, EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. TOMORROW WILL SEE RAIN START TO FALL IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LOLO PASS AND LOST TRAIL PASS IN THE EASTERN LEMHI
     COUNTY.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KMSO 202024
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
224 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...VERY WET MOUNTAIN SNOW TOMORROW...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, STARTING DURING THE MORNING IN CENTRAL IDAHO. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5,000 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WARM ROADS WILL HELP MELT THE SNOW ON MOST AREA ROADS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SUN IS STILL UP. HOWEVER, DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW, SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS IS
LIKELY.

A BIGGER IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BACKCOUNTRY WITH LATE
SEASON HIKERS AND HUNTERS. EVEN BEFORE IT STARTS SNOWING, THIS
WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THEN ONCE IT STARTS SNOWING IT WILL BE A VERY WET,
COLD, AND MISERABLE DAY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.

THE CURRENT SCENARIO HAS THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FEED INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO AND THE BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS, THEN ACROSS THE BITTERROOT
VALLEY INTO THE SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS. GEORGETOWN LAKE AND THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND ANACONDA AND BUTTE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. MOUNTAIN
RIDGES COULD SEE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SCATTERED
SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. A BRIEF LULL
IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY, AND COULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW IMPACTS FOR AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER
06Z, EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. TOMORROW WILL SEE RAIN START TO FALL IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LOLO PASS AND LOST TRAIL PASS IN THE EASTERN LEMHI
     COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 201721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 201533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
933 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 201533
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
933 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...

Clear skies are in place across the entire State this morning and
should continue through today as a broad upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts east from MT into the Dakotas. SW flow aloft on the
back/upstream side of the ridge will bring additional warming to
the region today with a few locations, mainly in NW portions of
the forecast area, approaching record values. No updates needed to
previous forecast package. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014/
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 201533
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...EXCELLENT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND UP TEMPS JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH GIVEN WARM SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM
NEW MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN
THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 201533
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...EXCELLENT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY UNDER UPPER RIDGING.
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND UP TEMPS JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH GIVEN WARM SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM
NEW MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN
THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201523
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201523
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201523
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201523
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 201125
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 201125
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 200935
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 200935
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 200935
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 200935
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
335 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 200920
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
320 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...Near Record Heat Today Followed by Cool and Rainy Conditions
on Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...The next trough, that will pass through on Tuesday,
is currently moving onto the west coast. Southwesterly flow will
develop over Idaho and western Montana today, as the trough
approaches, and high cloud cover will pass through this
afternoon. High temperatures today are going to be warmer than
Sunday with near record values (in the low 70s) for many
locations.

Precipitation with the upcoming weather system is anticipated to
begin to fall early Tuesday morning. Moisture with the upcoming
trough and cold front will be ample for pretty much everyone to
have rain by Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels will also lower
through the day and elevations above 6500 feet may have snow
accumulations including Lost Trail Pass.

High pressure will briefly pass over on Wednesday. The rain from
Tuesday along with clearing skies on Wednesday morning will bring
chances for fog.

A moist southwesterly flow is forecast to develop late Wednesday
that will begin to spread rain through north central Idaho and
northwest Montana. Southerly winds are also possible on Thursday
under this southwesterly flow. The cooler and more moist flow is
possible to continue into this coming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Fog has again developed through many of the valleys of
north central Idaho and western Montana so expect patchy fog
through mid-morning. Southwesterly flow is beginning to move over
the region as the next trough moves on to the west coast, and
high cloud cover will increase this afternoon and then lower
tonight as the associated cold front approaches. Low ceilings due
to low clouds and rain are likely Tuesday morning once the trough
and shortwave passes. Widespread cloudy and rainy conditions can
be expected for much of Tuesday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 200920
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
320 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...Near Record Heat Today Followed by Cool and Rainy Conditions
on Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...The next trough, that will pass through on Tuesday,
is currently moving onto the west coast. Southwesterly flow will
develop over Idaho and western Montana today, as the trough
approaches, and high cloud cover will pass through this
afternoon. High temperatures today are going to be warmer than
Sunday with near record values (in the low 70s) for many
locations.

Precipitation with the upcoming weather system is anticipated to
begin to fall early Tuesday morning. Moisture with the upcoming
trough and cold front will be ample for pretty much everyone to
have rain by Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels will also lower
through the day and elevations above 6500 feet may have snow
accumulations including Lost Trail Pass.

High pressure will briefly pass over on Wednesday. The rain from
Tuesday along with clearing skies on Wednesday morning will bring
chances for fog.

A moist southwesterly flow is forecast to develop late Wednesday
that will begin to spread rain through north central Idaho and
northwest Montana. Southerly winds are also possible on Thursday
under this southwesterly flow. The cooler and more moist flow is
possible to continue into this coming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Fog has again developed through many of the valleys of
north central Idaho and western Montana so expect patchy fog
through mid-morning. Southwesterly flow is beginning to move over
the region as the next trough moves on to the west coast, and
high cloud cover will increase this afternoon and then lower
tonight as the associated cold front approaches. Low ceilings due
to low clouds and rain are likely Tuesday morning once the trough
and shortwave passes. Widespread cloudy and rainy conditions can
be expected for much of Tuesday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 200859
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN
EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH
A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 200859
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM NEW MEXICO THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND UP INTO THE SOUTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AN
EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND JOGS
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE COASTLINE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SET BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES WITH
A SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT. THIS WILL GENERATE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE THE TROUGH WILL STEP ONSHORE AND MOVE INLAND.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL EXIT
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SOUTHERN FLOW ALOFT TO KICK
IN. A STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEES SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MORPH INTO A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LIFT DUE TO THE JET MAX IS
LOOKING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH THE NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS IS DIFFERENT BY ABOUT 100 MILES DEPENDING ON MODEL. SPEED
OF THE JET WILL MOST LIKELY KICK OUT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
RAPIDLY PROHIBITING WETTING RAINS.

WEDNESDAY... BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE AND
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY BUT DO NOT YET LOOK WORTHY OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
DAY TIME HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
GAH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200839
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
239 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200839
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
239 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200547
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPS ARE COOLING OFF QUICKLY AGAIN TONIGHT. MADE A QUICK UPDATE
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL LOCATION AROUND THE THE
REGION WHERE READING WERE EITHER VERY CLOSE TO OR COLDER THAN
INHERITED FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT...INCLUDING BUT LIMITED TO
KSHR...KBHK...AND KLVM. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 037/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 036/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 034/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200547
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPS ARE COOLING OFF QUICKLY AGAIN TONIGHT. MADE A QUICK UPDATE
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL LOCATION AROUND THE THE
REGION WHERE READING WERE EITHER VERY CLOSE TO OR COLDER THAN
INHERITED FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT...INCLUDING BUT LIMITED TO
KSHR...KBHK...AND KLVM. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 037/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 036/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 034/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 200453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 200453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE WAS PLANNED THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND IR SATELLITE HAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE AND FAR NW
MT...ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO MODERATE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LEE TROUGHING WAS DEVELOPING OVER MT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. GRADIENT DID NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG GAP FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE PARK WILL NOT BE THAT
LOW...SO GAP WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG. EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS...AND
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTED THIS IDEA. SKY COVER AND
WINDS ALSO LOOKED REASONABLE.

EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON MON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SW AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 041/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 043/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 039/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 039/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 200200
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast tonight as quiet conditions continue
across the region. Expecting an almost identical day Monday.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to amplify
over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain clear skies,
light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis shifts to the
east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Record
high temperatures are possible Monday at some locations even with
increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally agree that a short
wave trough will amplify while moving across the Pacific northwest.
The ECMWF solution is faster than others while the NAM feature is a
bit slower and breaks off further to the southwest. A consensus
approach will bring precipitation through the zones from southwest
to northeast on Tuesday, with the highest POPs over the southwest.
Snow levels will drop to around 6000 feet Tuesday night, but with
only light accumulation expected over the peaks of southwest
Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 200200
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
800 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast tonight as quiet conditions continue
across the region. Expecting an almost identical day Monday.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to amplify
over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain clear skies,
light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis shifts to the
east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Record
high temperatures are possible Monday at some locations even with
increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally agree that a short
wave trough will amplify while moving across the Pacific northwest.
The ECMWF solution is faster than others while the NAM feature is a
bit slower and breaks off further to the southwest. A consensus
approach will bring precipitation through the zones from southwest
to northeast on Tuesday, with the highest POPs over the southwest.
Snow levels will drop to around 6000 feet Tuesday night, but with
only light accumulation expected over the peaks of southwest
Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 200141
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
741 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND CONTINING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 200141
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
741 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND CONTINING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 192334
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Expect clear skies with the exception of a few clouds near 14000 ft
MSL Monday afternoon. Winds will be 10 knots or less with the
exception of southwest winds 10 to 20 knots along the east slopes of
the Rocky Mountains Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KMSO 192105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...Another night of mostly clear conditions will lead
to ample valley cooling and help further strengthen valley
inversions that are unlikely to completely mix this afternoon.
This will likely prevent high temperatures in the valleys on
Monday from reaching their full potential, which would likely be
near record breaking for places like Missoula (record high is 72).
However temperatures area wide will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

Models are still on track to bring a cold front through the
Northern Rockies Region Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Initially the front appears to be somewhat void of moisture. But
an advancing upper level wave is forecast to dig inland and
eventually track northeast out of Nevada into Idaho and Montana
over the cold frontal boundary. The addition of upper level
instability and deep moisture along the near surface cold front
will initiate a band of widespread precipitation apparently
focused along the Clearwater & Bitterroot Mountains. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool with the snow level remaining near 7000
feet through much of the day. Although some impressive amounts of
precipitation are expected, especially over the higher terrain,
the larger impact is likely to be from post frontal snow showers
over Lost Trail Pass and other mountain locations above 6500 feet.
Much like the cold front last Thursday, travelers over Lost Trail
Pass should be prepared for brief, periods of reduced visibility
from snow showers along with icy, snow covered roadways.

Weak high pressure will begin to build on Wednesday and areas
which receive precipitation on Tuesday will likely experience
some fog. Long range models are beginning to show a possible
pattern shift to seasonably cool and a return to perhaps wetter
weather by the end of this week. Have trended the forecast this
direction, though confidence is generally moderate in the timing
of the trend. But there is some global evidence to support a
western USA pattern change before the month is over, so stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will remain in place through tonight
keeping light winds and variable cloudiness over all airfields. An
approaching storm system will bring increasing clouds late Monday
with a chance for precipitation at KSMN and KMSO by Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 192105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...Another night of mostly clear conditions will lead
to ample valley cooling and help further strengthen valley
inversions that are unlikely to completely mix this afternoon.
This will likely prevent high temperatures in the valleys on
Monday from reaching their full potential, which would likely be
near record breaking for places like Missoula (record high is 72).
However temperatures area wide will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

Models are still on track to bring a cold front through the
Northern Rockies Region Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Initially the front appears to be somewhat void of moisture. But
an advancing upper level wave is forecast to dig inland and
eventually track northeast out of Nevada into Idaho and Montana
over the cold frontal boundary. The addition of upper level
instability and deep moisture along the near surface cold front
will initiate a band of widespread precipitation apparently
focused along the Clearwater & Bitterroot Mountains. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool with the snow level remaining near 7000
feet through much of the day. Although some impressive amounts of
precipitation are expected, especially over the higher terrain,
the larger impact is likely to be from post frontal snow showers
over Lost Trail Pass and other mountain locations above 6500 feet.
Much like the cold front last Thursday, travelers over Lost Trail
Pass should be prepared for brief, periods of reduced visibility
from snow showers along with icy, snow covered roadways.

Weak high pressure will begin to build on Wednesday and areas
which receive precipitation on Tuesday will likely experience
some fog. Long range models are beginning to show a possible
pattern shift to seasonably cool and a return to perhaps wetter
weather by the end of this week. Have trended the forecast this
direction, though confidence is generally moderate in the timing
of the trend. But there is some global evidence to support a
western USA pattern change before the month is over, so stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will remain in place through tonight
keeping light winds and variable cloudiness over all airfields. An
approaching storm system will bring increasing clouds late Monday
with a chance for precipitation at KSMN and KMSO by Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 192103
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 192103
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Large amplitude ridge continues to
amplify over the northern Rockies tonight. This will maintain
clear skies, light winds, and mild temperatures. The ridge axis
shifts to the east on Monday with a strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft. Record high temperatures are possible Monday at some
locations even with increasing high clouds. Model solutions generally
agree that a short wave trough will amplify while moving across
the Pacific northwest. The ECMWF solution is faster than others
while the NAM feature is a bit slower and breaks off further to
the southwest. A consensus approach will bring precipitation
through the zones from southwest to northeast on Tuesday, with the
highest POPs over the southwest. Snow levels will drop to around
6000 feet Tuesday night, but with only light accumulation expected
over the peaks of southwest Montana. Nutter

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet Tuesday
night with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains
along the Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana.
Precipitation will be all rain for elevations below 6000 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  76  48  61 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  41  77  44  60 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  42  73  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
BZN  34  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  40
WEY  27  61  31  52 /   0   0  10  50
DLN  39  72  43  58 /   0   0  20  60
HVR  39  75  40  67 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  43  76  47  67 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 041/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 043/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 039/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 039/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 041/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 043/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 039/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 039/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 041/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 043/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 039/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 039/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 041/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 043/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 039/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 039/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 192023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM
THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE
LEFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE
IS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE
FLOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 192023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SO EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY OF 10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN A GULF OF
ALASKA LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS MOVE WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER. SCT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING OVERALL MILD FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONLY TWEAK WORTH MENTIONING WAS TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH OVERHEAD. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM
THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN
REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE
LEFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE
IS THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE
FLOW WHICH WILL IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6KTS OR LESS. KGGW WILL SEE AN
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND TONIGHT AT AROUND 10KTS DUE TO LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 191718
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1118 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front will
push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow levels
will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows possible
over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher peaks of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages
today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may reach record values
at some locations. Temperatures will drop to near seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 191718
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1118 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front will
push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow levels
will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows possible
over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher peaks of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages
today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may reach record values
at some locations. Temperatures will drop to near seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191525
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY LEADING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

NO CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY
DOES APPEAR TO BE THE WARMER DAY...WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S...DUE TO
BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT
DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT DRY.
AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

ONLY REAL WEATHER-MAKER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. HAVE LEANED ON THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN OUR
WEST AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT GIVEN
MODELS TREND TOWARD A BIT STRONGER ASCENT...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT
TIME. SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SOMETIME IN THE
6-12Z TIME FRAME...MAKING WEDNESDAY A DRY DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTY POST FRONTAL W-NW WINDS LATE TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL AND QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...AND PERHAPS NEAR 80F AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND
BROADUS WHERE AFTERNOON THERMAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S...COURTESY OF DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS BACK NEAR OR ABOVE 70F. A WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR THU-SAT
IS OF FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE...
WITH A LOW ANCHORED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.

ONE FINAL NOTE. THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODELS DUE TO A
MESSY PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH/EAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...SOME OF WHICH IS DUE TO THE UNSURE EVOLUTION OF
HURRICANE ANA. THE GFS ACTUALLY WANTS TO BRING IN LOWER HEIGHTS
AND SOME COOLER AIR BY NEXT SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS US UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 046/075 049/074 047/066 044/071 048/071 044/070
    0/U 00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/068 047/068 043/069
    0/U 00/U    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
HDN 073 042/076 044/076 044/067 039/072 043/072 041/072
    0/U 00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 071 043/075 044/075 046/066 041/070 044/071 041/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
4BQ 072 042/075 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 068 039/071 042/074 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 072 039/078 042/079 042/066 035/071 039/073 038/073
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191525
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY LEADING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

NO CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY
DOES APPEAR TO BE THE WARMER DAY...WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S...DUE TO
BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT
DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT DRY.
AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

ONLY REAL WEATHER-MAKER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. HAVE LEANED ON THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN OUR
WEST AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT GIVEN
MODELS TREND TOWARD A BIT STRONGER ASCENT...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT
TIME. SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SOMETIME IN THE
6-12Z TIME FRAME...MAKING WEDNESDAY A DRY DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTY POST FRONTAL W-NW WINDS LATE TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL AND QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...AND PERHAPS NEAR 80F AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND
BROADUS WHERE AFTERNOON THERMAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S...COURTESY OF DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS BACK NEAR OR ABOVE 70F. A WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR THU-SAT
IS OF FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE...
WITH A LOW ANCHORED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.

ONE FINAL NOTE. THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODELS DUE TO A
MESSY PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH/EAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...SOME OF WHICH IS DUE TO THE UNSURE EVOLUTION OF
HURRICANE ANA. THE GFS ACTUALLY WANTS TO BRING IN LOWER HEIGHTS
AND SOME COOLER AIR BY NEXT SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS US UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 046/075 049/074 047/066 044/071 048/071 044/070
    0/U 00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/068 047/068 043/069
    0/U 00/U    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
HDN 073 042/076 044/076 044/067 039/072 043/072 041/072
    0/U 00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 071 043/075 044/075 046/066 041/070 044/071 041/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
4BQ 072 042/075 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 068 039/071 042/074 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 072 039/078 042/079 042/066 035/071 039/073 038/073
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 191519
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
919 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY TO AID IN WARMING.
HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY...RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL...WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 191519
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
919 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY TO AID IN WARMING.
HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY...RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL...WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 191519
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
919 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY TO AID IN WARMING.
HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY...RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL...WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KGGW 191519
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
919 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY TO AID IN WARMING.
HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE WIND BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY...RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL...WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KTFX 191453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
853 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 191453
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
853 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Satellite reveals high clouds along northern portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front associated with strong upper level winds. Surface
observations indicate wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph in this area as
lee troughing begins to develop. Other than these minor points of
interest, the forecast remains on track for a warm and mostly sunny
day. No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014/
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves across the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased POPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance POPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 191120
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 191120
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
High pressure aloft will provide dry and stable conditions. Winds
will be generally light. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 190938
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...Mild Monday followed by Wet & Cooler Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...Fog has formed this morning in many of the valleys
of north central Idaho and western Montana which will linger
through mid morning. High pressure over the region that is
responsible for this fog will lead to a very pleasant fall
afternoon with above average temperatures.

Southwesterly flow will develop ahead of the next weather system
on Monday so cloud cover is going to increase with continued above
normal temperatures.

There is very good agreement with the upcoming weather system to
arrive early Tuesday morning bringing high chances for rain.
Forecast tools show 2-3 times normal amount of moisture to move in
from the south while a slow moving cold front approaches from the
west. The amount of available moisture coupled with multiple
modes of lift should culminate in periods of moderate to even
heavy rain on Tuesday morning. Expect temperatures to drop to
below normal values on Tuesday due to cloud cover, rain, and the
cold front passage. Snow is also possible above 6000 feet after
the cold front passes that may cause light accumulations on high
passes such as Lost Trail.

The trough will pass off to the east on Tuesday night with brief
high pressure for Wednesday.

Moist southwesterly flow is forecast for Thursday and Friday so
rain chances are high for the Clearwater Mountains and through
northwest Montana. High pressure may return for next weekend so
above average temperatures and little chance for precipitation
explains the extended forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...Moist low levels and clear skies overnight has
prompted fog development through many of the valleys of north
central Idaho and western Montana. KGPI has been reporting dense
fog that will likely last into this morning. Other than fog, high
pressure is forecast to keep light winds and very nice conditions
for the next 24 hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 190938
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...Mild Monday followed by Wet & Cooler Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...Fog has formed this morning in many of the valleys
of north central Idaho and western Montana which will linger
through mid morning. High pressure over the region that is
responsible for this fog will lead to a very pleasant fall
afternoon with above average temperatures.

Southwesterly flow will develop ahead of the next weather system
on Monday so cloud cover is going to increase with continued above
normal temperatures.

There is very good agreement with the upcoming weather system to
arrive early Tuesday morning bringing high chances for rain.
Forecast tools show 2-3 times normal amount of moisture to move in
from the south while a slow moving cold front approaches from the
west. The amount of available moisture coupled with multiple
modes of lift should culminate in periods of moderate to even
heavy rain on Tuesday morning. Expect temperatures to drop to
below normal values on Tuesday due to cloud cover, rain, and the
cold front passage. Snow is also possible above 6000 feet after
the cold front passes that may cause light accumulations on high
passes such as Lost Trail.

The trough will pass off to the east on Tuesday night with brief
high pressure for Wednesday.

Moist southwesterly flow is forecast for Thursday and Friday so
rain chances are high for the Clearwater Mountains and through
northwest Montana. High pressure may return for next weekend so
above average temperatures and little chance for precipitation
explains the extended forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...Moist low levels and clear skies overnight has
prompted fog development through many of the valleys of north
central Idaho and western Montana. KGPI has been reporting dense
fog that will likely last into this morning. Other than fog, high
pressure is forecast to keep light winds and very nice conditions
for the next 24 hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 190924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 190924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to provide dry
and stable conditions across the area today. Surface winds will be
generally light. The ridge axis shifts east to the Dakotas Monday
leaving behind an increasing southwest flow aloft over the area.
Moisture will be limited with this southwest flow aloft, the main
effect will be an increase in high clouds. An upper trof will move
over the Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday resulting in
isolated showers over the Rocky Mountain Front and over the
mountains of southwest Montana. Tuesday will find the upper trof
axis moving to the Continental Divide and a surface cold front
will push across the area. Showers will develop over the mountains and
become scattered as they move east and over the plains. Snow
levels will drop to around 7k feet with light accumulating snows
possible over the Rocky Mountains and over some of the higher
peaks of southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well above
seasonal averages today and Monday. Monday afternoon readings may
reach record values at some locations. Temperatures will drop to
near seasonal averages Tuesday as cooler air moves acros the area.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Forecast models differ on the timing
of a shortwave trough that is expected to move across Montana
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is the faster solution with the trough
exiting Tuesday night, while the GFS and Canadian solutions push the
trough across the Treasure State Tuesday night. Have gone with a
model blend and increased PoPs to high chance for the mountains
across central/southwest Montana and slight chance to chance PoPs
elsewhere. Snow levels will lower to around 6500 feet Tuesday night
with an inch or two of wet snow possible in the mountains along the
Continental Divide and southwest/central Montana. Precipitation will
be all rain for elevations below 6500 feet.

Drier and seasonal conditions will return for the middle to latter
part of the week under weak upper-level ridging. As the flow aloft
becomes more westerly, breezy conditions will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front. In addition, increasing Pacific moisture will
keep chances for showers in the higher terrain along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Continental Divide. By late next week, some
forecast models hint at a chance for precipitation in the
plains/valleys associated with another trough of low pressure, but
there remains several differences between the forecast models.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal averages through the
forecast period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  70  41  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  71  42  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  68  35  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  59  27  61  32 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  69  39  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  69  39  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  71  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 190918
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY... RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL... WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS
INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 190918
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY... RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL... WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS
INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 190918
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY... RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL... WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS
INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 190918
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE HUDSON BAY DOWN
INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WHILE A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UP THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND TERMINATES OVER
ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE FEATURES
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BARE ON. FARTHER WEST ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS DOWN SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER
OVER THE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LIGHT ALLOW THE LIGHT ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND RAISE HIGHS
INTO OR NEAR THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL STEP ON SHORE AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY... RIDGE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO TO WANE AN IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE DEVELOPING JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH MAY HELP TO
PARTIALLY DESTABILIZE THE THE FARTHEST WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO SOME CALIFORNIA PACIFIC OR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AROUND 600
MBS. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE LAYERS BELOW THIS APPEAR TO BE SO DRY
THAT ANY MOISTURE THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING
THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSING OF THE JET AS WELL... WHICH COULD LOWER TEMPS
INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GAH


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MAIN ISSUE IS THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT TIMING OF BOUNDARY DISRUPTIONS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190848
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

NO CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY DOES
APPEAR TO BE THE WARMER DAY...WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S...DUE TO
BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT DO NOT SEE
ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT DRY. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

ONLY REAL WEATHER-MAKER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. HAVE LEANED ON THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN OUR
WEST AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT GIVEN
MODELS TREND TOWARD A BIT STRONGER ASCENT...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT
TIME. SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SOMETIME IN THE
6-12Z TIME FRAME...MAKING WEDNESDAY A DRY DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTY POST FRONTAL W-NW WINDS LATE TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL AND QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...AND PERHAPS NEAR 80F AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND
BROADUS WHERE AFTERNOON THERMAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S...COURTESY OF DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS BACK NEAR OR ABOVE 70F. A WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR THU-SAT
IS OF FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE...
WITH A LOW ANCHORED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.

ONE FINAL NOTE. THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODELS DUE TO A
MESSY PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH/EAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...SOME OF WHICH IS DUE TO THE UNSURE EVOLUTION OF
HURRICANE ANA. THE GFS ACTUALLY WANTS TO BRING IN LOWER HEIGHTS
AND SOME COOLER AIR BY NEXT SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS US UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 046/075 049/074 047/066 044/071 048/071 044/070
    0/U 00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/068 047/068 043/069
    0/U 00/U    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
HDN 073 042/076 044/076 044/067 039/072 043/072 041/072
    0/U 00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 071 043/075 044/075 046/066 041/070 044/071 041/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
4BQ 072 042/075 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 068 039/071 042/074 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 072 039/078 042/079 042/066 035/071 039/073 038/073
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190848
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

NO CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY DOES
APPEAR TO BE THE WARMER DAY...WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S...DUE TO
BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING...AS THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY THAT DO NOT SEE
ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT DRY. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

ONLY REAL WEATHER-MAKER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM. HAVE LEANED ON THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN OUR
WEST AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT GIVEN
MODELS TREND TOWARD A BIT STRONGER ASCENT...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT
TIME. SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SOMETIME IN THE
6-12Z TIME FRAME...MAKING WEDNESDAY A DRY DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME
GUSTY POST FRONTAL W-NW WINDS LATE TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL AND QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S...AND PERHAPS NEAR 80F AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND
BROADUS WHERE AFTERNOON THERMAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S...COURTESY OF DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS BACK NEAR OR ABOVE 70F. A WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR THU-SAT
IS OF FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE...
WITH A LOW ANCHORED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.

ONE FINAL NOTE. THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODELS DUE TO A
MESSY PATTERN TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH/EAST PACIFIC BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...SOME OF WHICH IS DUE TO THE UNSURE EVOLUTION OF
HURRICANE ANA. THE GFS ACTUALLY WANTS TO BRING IN LOWER HEIGHTS
AND SOME COOLER AIR BY NEXT SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS US UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGING. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 046/075 049/074 047/066 044/071 048/071 044/070
    0/U 00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/068 047/068 043/069
    0/U 00/U    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
HDN 073 042/076 044/076 044/067 039/072 043/072 041/072
    0/U 00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 071 043/075 044/075 046/066 041/070 044/071 041/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    01/B    11/U
4BQ 072 042/075 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 068 039/071 042/074 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 072 039/078 042/079 042/066 035/071 039/073 038/073
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190614
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1214 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AS THE EFFECTS OF CLEAR NIGHT SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE VISIBLE IN QUICK COOLING. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
AROUND KLVM AND THE PARADISE VALLEY AND IN BAKER...WHERE TEMPS ARE
APPROACHING INHERITED FORECAST LOW. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 035/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 041/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 040/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 037/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 038/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190614
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1214 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AS THE EFFECTS OF CLEAR NIGHT SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE VISIBLE IN QUICK COOLING. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
AROUND KLVM AND THE PARADISE VALLEY AND IN BAKER...WHERE TEMPS ARE
APPROACHING INHERITED FORECAST LOW. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 035/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 041/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 040/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 037/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 038/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190614
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1214 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AS THE EFFECTS OF CLEAR NIGHT SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE VISIBLE IN QUICK COOLING. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
AROUND KLVM AND THE PARADISE VALLEY AND IN BAKER...WHERE TEMPS ARE
APPROACHING INHERITED FORECAST LOW. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 035/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 041/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 040/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 037/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 038/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190614
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1214 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AS THE EFFECTS OF CLEAR NIGHT SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE VISIBLE IN QUICK COOLING. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
AROUND KLVM AND THE PARADISE VALLEY AND IN BAKER...WHERE TEMPS ARE
APPROACHING INHERITED FORECAST LOW. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 035/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 041/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 040/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 037/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 038/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 190345
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 190345
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0345Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Expect winds to
be near or less than 10 knots. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 190235
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
835 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
No update to the forecast tonight. Winds continue to diminish across
Central Montana and skies are mostly clear. Expecting a quiet night.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190211
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
811 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BUT DID TWEAK A FEW TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY MORNING. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 038/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 042/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 043/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 040/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 039/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190211
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
811 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BUT DID TWEAK A FEW TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY MORNING. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 038/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 042/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 043/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 040/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 039/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190211
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
811 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BUT DID TWEAK A FEW TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY MORNING. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 038/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 042/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 043/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 040/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 039/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190211
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
811 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT BUT DID TWEAK A FEW TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY MORNING. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 038/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 042/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 043/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 040/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 039/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 190142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE DEBATE FOR FOG.
WIND FIELDS AND RH FIELDS WERE TWEAKED. RH INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
WIND DROPPED BY ABOUT ONE KNOT. FACTORS AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WITH A DRYING ABILITY FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS. FOG MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AT SHELTERED RIVER
BOTTOMS WHERE MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND
INVERSIONS CAN KICK IN ALONG WITH EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RIVER
ITSELF. THIS WILL BE A CONFINED AREA LIMITED TO JUST ABOVE THE
RIVERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT FAR DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE
LOCALIZED INVERSIONS. NAM AND NAMDNG5 ARE VERY GUNG HO TOWARDS FOG
ON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 5 MILE WIDE BANDS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OBSCURATION... BUT IN EXPERIENCE THESE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. IF FOG FORMS IT WILL BE MORE
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR SOLUTIONS WHERE NARROWLY CONFINED SHELTERED BANDS
ABOVE THE RIVER VALLEYSHAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT BELOW 6 SM. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 190142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE DEBATE FOR FOG.
WIND FIELDS AND RH FIELDS WERE TWEAKED. RH INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
WIND DROPPED BY ABOUT ONE KNOT. FACTORS AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WITH A DRYING ABILITY FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS. FOG MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AT SHELTERED RIVER
BOTTOMS WHERE MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND
INVERSIONS CAN KICK IN ALONG WITH EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RIVER
ITSELF. THIS WILL BE A CONFINED AREA LIMITED TO JUST ABOVE THE
RIVERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT FAR DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE
LOCALIZED INVERSIONS. NAM AND NAMDNG5 ARE VERY GUNG HO TOWARDS FOG
ON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 5 MILE WIDE BANDS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OBSCURATION... BUT IN EXPERIENCE THESE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. IF FOG FORMS IT WILL BE MORE
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR SOLUTIONS WHERE NARROWLY CONFINED SHELTERED BANDS
ABOVE THE RIVER VALLEYSHAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT BELOW 6 SM. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 190142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE DEBATE FOR FOG.
WIND FIELDS AND RH FIELDS WERE TWEAKED. RH INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
WIND DROPPED BY ABOUT ONE KNOT. FACTORS AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WITH A DRYING ABILITY FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS. FOG MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AT SHELTERED RIVER
BOTTOMS WHERE MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND
INVERSIONS CAN KICK IN ALONG WITH EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RIVER
ITSELF. THIS WILL BE A CONFINED AREA LIMITED TO JUST ABOVE THE
RIVERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT FAR DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE
LOCALIZED INVERSIONS. NAM AND NAMDNG5 ARE VERY GUNG HO TOWARDS FOG
ON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 5 MILE WIDE BANDS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OBSCURATION... BUT IN EXPERIENCE THESE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. IF FOG FORMS IT WILL BE MORE
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR SOLUTIONS WHERE NARROWLY CONFINED SHELTERED BANDS
ABOVE THE RIVER VALLEYSHAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT BELOW 6 SM. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 190142
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
742 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE DEBATE FOR FOG.
WIND FIELDS AND RH FIELDS WERE TWEAKED. RH INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
WIND DROPPED BY ABOUT ONE KNOT. FACTORS AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WITH A DRYING ABILITY FOR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS. FOG MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AT SHELTERED RIVER
BOTTOMS WHERE MICRO-SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND
INVERSIONS CAN KICK IN ALONG WITH EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RIVER
ITSELF. THIS WILL BE A CONFINED AREA LIMITED TO JUST ABOVE THE
RIVERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVECT FAR DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER THE
LOCALIZED INVERSIONS. NAM AND NAMDNG5 ARE VERY GUNG HO TOWARDS FOG
ON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 5 MILE WIDE BANDS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE
OBSCURATION... BUT IN EXPERIENCE THESE MODELS ARE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. IF FOG FORMS IT WILL BE MORE
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR SOLUTIONS WHERE NARROWLY CONFINED SHELTERED BANDS
ABOVE THE RIVER VALLEYSHAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT BELOW 6 SM. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE SHALLOW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE TODAY
WILL WORK ITSELF THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE MAINTAINING WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND BRINGING
IN CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER MONTANA. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY...AND INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS
AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF MONTANA AS A DEEP
BUT NARROW TROUGH NUDGES UP AGAINST THE WEST COAST. CONTINUED
SUNNY SKIES AND ELEVATED THICKNESS HEIGHTS...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...WILL GENERATE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS OF 15F TO 20F HIGHER THAN NORMAL. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OVER
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO
TREND TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER WAVE ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND WIND AVAILABLE.

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING REALIZED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE PACIFIC JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE JET OVER MONTANA FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMC PUSH
THE JET TOWARD CANADA ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE STATE FOR FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SUGGEST STACKED WESTERLY FLOW
FOR POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAKING
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.

CIGS: SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BECOMING SKC-SCT200 THIS EVENING.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED.

WIND: WESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 6KTS THIS EVENING.

GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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