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000
FXUS65 KGGW 310216
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
816 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THEREFORE MODIFIED
WEATHER TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST HAS THE FIRST PERIOD WELL COVERED NO OTHER CHANGES
NOTED. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
EXTENDS INFLUENCE OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BUT THE CHANCE DIMINISHES ENOUGH TO
REMOVE MENTION FROM TAFS AFTER 06Z.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS COMING OUR WAY
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING COULD
GENERATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310216
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
816 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THEREFORE MODIFIED
WEATHER TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST HAS THE FIRST PERIOD WELL COVERED NO OTHER CHANGES
NOTED. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
EXTENDS INFLUENCE OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BUT THE CHANCE DIMINISHES ENOUGH TO
REMOVE MENTION FROM TAFS AFTER 06Z.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS COMING OUR WAY
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING COULD
GENERATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310216
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
816 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THEREFORE MODIFIED
WEATHER TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST HAS THE FIRST PERIOD WELL COVERED NO OTHER CHANGES
NOTED. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
EXTENDS INFLUENCE OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BUT THE CHANCE DIMINISHES ENOUGH TO
REMOVE MENTION FROM TAFS AFTER 06Z.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS COMING OUR WAY
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING COULD
GENERATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 310216
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
816 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO THEREFORE MODIFIED
WEATHER TO SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST HAS THE FIRST PERIOD WELL COVERED NO OTHER CHANGES
NOTED. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
EXTENDS INFLUENCE OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BUT THE CHANCE DIMINISHES ENOUGH TO
REMOVE MENTION FROM TAFS AFTER 06Z.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS COMING OUR WAY
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING COULD
GENERATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTFX 302337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 302337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 302337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 302337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Showers will continue over far southwest Montana including KBZN
through the night and into Sunday morning. Showers could diminish
Sunday afternoon but do not have high confidence on this happening.
Expect local MVFR conditions and mountain obscurement in the
showers. Also expect isolated thunderstorms this evening. Farther
north a few showers could affect KHVR and KLWT early this evening
otherwise expect it to be dry with VFR conditions. Sunday afternoon
there should be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the mountains. Although not indicated in the tafs there could be a
few showers or possibly thunderstorms over the plains as well. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302034
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS
PUSHING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OUT OF YELLOWSTONE PARK. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE VIGOROUS WITH THIS WAVE ALL MORNING...EVEN BACK OVER
IDAHO EARLIER...INDICATING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH THE INITIAL WAVE. IN
FACT...A THUNDERSTORM HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WITH THIS LINE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A LINE
CAN UNZIP NORTHWARD DESPITE THE CIN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. IF A
LINE CAN DEVELOP THERE...IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE AT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT BEFORE THE LINE EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THE SECONDARY WAVE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF RED LODGE DOWN TOWARD JACKSON WYOMING. TREND IN THE HRRR HAS
BEEN TO EVOLVE THIS LINE ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED.
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WHILE WOULDNT RULE OUT
A SEVERE REPORT...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THUS KEEPING AN
OVERALL WET FORECAST GOING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER...WITH DAY
TIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF QUIET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTH AND DEFLECTS THE FLOW OVER MONTANA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DRAG THE BULK OF THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORCING AND THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK ENERGY AND GENERAL TROFINESS RESIDES
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF STRONGEST FORCING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT IF ECMWF IS CORRECT THIS COULD BE A BIT
LATE. CONTINUED 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID 70S WEDNESDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/068 051/069 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/070
    64/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    22/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 046/066 043/068 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/072
    63/T    22/T    10/U    12/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 054/069 051/071 051/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/073
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 056/072 052/073 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/071
    44/T    12/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/066 051/070 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/072
    65/T    23/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    33/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 049/070 049/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/069
    63/T    13/T    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 052/065 047/070 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/074
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302034
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS
PUSHING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OUT OF YELLOWSTONE PARK. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE VIGOROUS WITH THIS WAVE ALL MORNING...EVEN BACK OVER
IDAHO EARLIER...INDICATING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH THE INITIAL WAVE. IN
FACT...A THUNDERSTORM HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WITH THIS LINE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A LINE
CAN UNZIP NORTHWARD DESPITE THE CIN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. IF A
LINE CAN DEVELOP THERE...IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE AT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT BEFORE THE LINE EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THE SECONDARY WAVE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF RED LODGE DOWN TOWARD JACKSON WYOMING. TREND IN THE HRRR HAS
BEEN TO EVOLVE THIS LINE ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED.
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WHILE WOULDNT RULE OUT
A SEVERE REPORT...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THUS KEEPING AN
OVERALL WET FORECAST GOING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER...WITH DAY
TIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF QUIET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTH AND DEFLECTS THE FLOW OVER MONTANA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DRAG THE BULK OF THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORCING AND THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK ENERGY AND GENERAL TROFINESS RESIDES
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF STRONGEST FORCING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT IF ECMWF IS CORRECT THIS COULD BE A BIT
LATE. CONTINUED 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID 70S WEDNESDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/068 051/069 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/070
    64/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    22/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 046/066 043/068 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/072
    63/T    22/T    10/U    12/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 054/069 051/071 051/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/073
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 056/072 052/073 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/071
    44/T    12/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/066 051/070 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/072
    65/T    23/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    33/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 049/070 049/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/069
    63/T    13/T    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 052/065 047/070 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/074
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 302025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE
OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERALL TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AT TIMES
RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS. WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 302025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 302025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE
OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERALL TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AT TIMES
RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS. WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 302025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 302025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE
OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERALL TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AT TIMES
RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS. WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 302025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 302025
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... HOT HIGH PRESSURE IS BOTTLED UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OUT TOWARD THE
CENTRAL US PLAINS. A COOL BROAD TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE
OVER MONTANA AND THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHEAST MONTANA
CURRENTLY SETS AT THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT... PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN NEAR THE SURFACE A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TRAPPING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG WHICH HAS CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE OR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHICH APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN HIGHER CHANCES. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH FOG IS THAT MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE FORM OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WHICH WOULD IMPEDE SURFACE RADIATION NEEDED FOR
FOG FORMATION.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
DOMINANT DURING THESE PERIODS... BUT AS THE CENTER OF THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH IT MAY RECEIVE LARGE ENOUGH OPENING FOR
SURFACE HEATING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM SURFACE
LAYER AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIMITED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY MODELS POINT TOWARDS A MINOR SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND
CONTRIBUTE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT.

GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING
AND SO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WAS LEFT AS IS.
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM EXISTS ON HAVING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
NEAT TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. WILL EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START OFF
THE PERIOD BUT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE UNDER WEAK RIDGING.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT PERHAPS COULD BE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE THIS WAVE TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER THINKING AND SO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS.
LEFT THE WX GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY OF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL NEED TO ASSESS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AS THIS
PERIOD MOVES CLOSER TO THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
MIDWEEK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LEAD TO DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IN
TAKING AN INITIAL LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...AS ENSEMBLE
OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD BY THIS TIME...AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF.

IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TODAY SHOWS THAT
INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ALBEIT TRACKING SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION/ BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A PROLONGED COOLER PERIOD AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PROVIDING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TRACKING
SHORTWAVES. THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
CWA HAS NOT BEEN IN STATIC WX CONDITIONS RECENTLY. IN ANY
RESPECT...AS THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO DEPICTED YESTERDAY FROM THE
ECMWF...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND SO FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK EVEN FURTHER ALONG WITH HONING IN ON POPS TO BETTER DEPICT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH JUST MAINTAINED A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION IN YESTERDAY/S SOLUTION NOW ALSO
SHOWS THAT SEPARATE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND THUS IS COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THAT INITIAL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN TREND IS TOWARD
ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL NEED TO WATCH INTERNATIONAL BORDER CAREFULLY
FOR POTENTIAL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERALL TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THAT COULD AT TIMES
RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS. WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 302025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern
remains in place across north-central and southwest MT this
afternoon. Next in a series of embedded shortwave troughs is
currently sparking convection over southwest MT with a few showers
over north-central MT. With weak to moderate instability and
moderate effective shear...can`t completely rule out an isolated
strong wind gust over SW MT this evening but threat is minimal.
Trough axis sweeps eastward across the forecast area overnight
resulting in slightly cooler temps for most locations on Sunday.
Could see an isolated shower/thunderstorm across primarily SW MT
and along the Rocky Mountain Front again tomorrow afternoon. Weak
northwest flow will set up across the area on Monday as a flatten
ridge begins to translate into the region. This will aid in
keeping afternoon temps around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
the 1st of September. Foltz

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  46  68 /  20  10  10  20
CTB  47  67  46  66 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  48  69  46  69 /  20  20  10  20
BZN  45  65  41  67 /  50  20  20  20
WEY  35  56  31  60 /  50  20  20  20
DLN  45  63  43  66 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  50  73  47  72 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  49  67  46  66 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 301947
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
147 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS PROVEN TO BE LESS
MOIST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY LIMITED
THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGELY LOCALIZED TO SW MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY, IDAHO. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, HELPING TO INITIATE
SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PAINTS SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING FROM
KALISPELL SOUTH TO LOST TRAIL PASS, SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF NUMEROUS PEOPLE WERE GREETED BY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, HEAVY SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER
REMAIN LOW. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE BETTER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO TODAY, THOUGH STILL QUITE LOW AS
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY TERRAIN BASED AND HAVE
TROUBLE STAYING TOGETHER AS IT COMES OFF THE TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY, THOUGH THERE WILL
STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE COOLEST MORNING AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ENTERS INTO CONSIDERATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CHANCE COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT IF THE CURRENT MODEL
DEPICTION OF LESS CLOUD COVER AND WIND REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR FUTURE MESSAGING NEEDS.

A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LESS EACH MODEL RUN AS THEY ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS A DRIER COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS TROUGH WILL
ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL AIRFIELDS AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN AN UNSTABLE, POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH MAY AFFECT CONDITIONS AT KMSO, KBTM AND KSMN THROUGH
AROUND 31/1200Z. SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

IV




000
FXUS65 KTFX 301630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301630
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1628Z.
A broad upper level low pressure trof will keep Central Montana
unsettled through Sunday. The air mass is slightly unstable across
Southwest Montana and a chance for thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will decrease
during the evening. Local MVFR is possible near showers and
thunderstorms. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 301629
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1029 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301629
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1029 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Area of showers/weak convection continues to move toward the east
this morning. Update consisted primarily of removing PoPs over the
northwestern portion of the forecast area for the remainder of the
morning. Balance of forecast in the near-term is essentially on
track. Foltz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  30  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301449
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
849 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE FORECAST
REASONING BELOW REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...FROM NEAR MILES CITY TO SHERIDAN...TO
DEVELOP INTO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THESE
LOCATIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ELIMINATED. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
DONT EXPECT THIS ACTIVE TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE...BUT COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AS TWO SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES TRACK THROUGH A BROADER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND REQUIRED
LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS. WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND WET
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND RIDE THE SW FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WE HAVE ANTICIPATED. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL PROGGING A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE FROM THE SE CORNER OF MONTANA TO
THE NE CORNER OF WYOMING. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CONVERGENT AREA IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...OUR TYPICAL SET UP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE ARE PROGGED JUST WEST OF THE
MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AS UPWARD FORCING MOVES THROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. SO A SHORT WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUFKIT DATA INDICATES
THE CAP BREAKING BETWEEN 3PM AND 4PM IN THE BAKER AREA. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH BOX ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND AND SOME
HAIL FOR THIS PATTERN WHICH PROVIDES US FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF THE
THREAT. THUS...WE WILL ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ZONES
IN THE FAR EAST TODAY...AND FOCUS ON IT A LITTLE HARDER IN OUR WX
STORY ETC.

THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL HELP ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. I RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ENERGY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING LINGERING A FEW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN. MODELS ARE HOWEVER TAKING TAKING DIFFERENT TACK ON HOW
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH
HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF. THERE IS
ALSO SOME INDICATION OF SHALLOW RIDGING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGE...CLIMBING ONLY TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN UPPER
TROF WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MODELS VARY A BIT ON TIMING OF WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION AS WELL AS WHETHER TROF AXIS CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR NOT. THE GFS SEEMS TO FAVOR KEEPING THE TROF ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AND ANGLING INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE TROF...AND KEEPS THE BEST
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH
POPS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS THE
GFS SEEMS MOST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE ECMWF IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM 24HRS AGO. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BECOME PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 054/069 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    7/T 64/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 071 046/067 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    7/T 63/T    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 074 054/072 051/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    6/T 55/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 077 056/073 053/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    4/T 44/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 083 055/070 051/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    5/T 65/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
BHK 079 054/071 049/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    5/T 63/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 080 052/068 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    6/T 55/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 301441
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
841 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THIS MORNING REVOLVED AROUND RADAR TRENDS. FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING SO SPREAD POPS FARTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN. WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL FIELDS.  GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROUGH FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. CIGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000
AND 10000 FT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. BRIEFLY RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF A HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
BECOMING WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 301441
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
841 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THIS MORNING REVOLVED AROUND RADAR TRENDS. FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY HANDLING SO SPREAD POPS FARTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN. WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL FIELDS.  GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROUGH FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. CIGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000
AND 10000 FT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. BRIEFLY RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF A HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KTS
BECOMING WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 301132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
Upper-level trof and surface cold front currently working their way
across central and southwest MT with scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms near/approaching all TAF sites except KCTB.
This initial round of convective activity should move into eastern
MT by 17-19Z, leaving mid-level (9000-15000 ft) ceilings over the
region before second round of showers and a few thunderstorms
develop this aftn.  Second round will occur mainly along/south of
KHLN-to-KLWT line, with slight chance of precipitation possibly
reaching as far north as KGTF.  Expect VFR conditions through the
day, even in areas receiving rainfall. Can`t rule out brief MVFR
conditions if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal, but
confidence in that happening currently too low to warrant MVFR
mention in 12Z TAFs. Winds will generally be less than 15 kts today,
with some gusts of 25-30 kts possible from thunderstorms outflows
this aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 301025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 301025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Upper trough and mid-level cold front is moving in as advertised
and below average temps are anticipated into next week. SPC
mesoanalysis shows that a 700 mb thermal ridge is already moving
into eastern MT with cold air advection occurring to the west. Sct
showers with a few isolated t`storms have developed over western
and southwestern MT. This region of precip is coincident with
upper-level divergence aloft due to curvature of the trough and a
localized right entrance region...weak 700 mb frontogenesis was
also analyzed.

Today...Previously mentioned forcings for ascent will slide from W
to E across the forecast area this morning. Best chance for
measurable rain is SE of a roughly GTF-to-HVR line. Left exit region
of a stronger jet across Idaho will act to enhance/sustain precip
over the SW into tonight. Additionally, a defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will linger into the evening over the SW. 1000-500 mb
column-average RH nicely depicts the cold frontal structure moving
through this morning, the tail end of the boundary stalling out over
the SW late this aftn, and the potential for rejuvenation of the
showers and embedded storms after 00z/Sunday as the strong Idaho jet
influences the area.

PWAT values will be near 0.75 inches, close to 2 standard deviations
above the mean over the SW, which means plenty of moisture for
moderate to heavy rain producing showers. Precip forecast best
follows the SREF but with a tenth or two less at lower elevations.
This method produced 0.15 to 0.30 inch amounts in the SW valleys
with up to 0.85 inches in the mountains of Madison and Gallatin
Counties. The EC is lower with total QPF values, while the GFS is
higher.

Sunday and Monday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of
Montana. Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring
in much drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS
falling to around 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s; chances
or showers will be low. Uttech

Monday Night through Saturday...Quiet weather conditions expected at
the start of this period, as transient high pressure ridging will
result in mostly fair skies, no precipitation, and comfortable early
autumn temperatures on Tues and Wed. By Wed night, a shortwave trof
is expected to move through southwest Canada and the Northern
Rockies and push a cold front across our region, but frontal
passage looks to be mostly dry with just a minimal chance of a
shower or two near Glacier NP and portions of the Hiline counties.

From Thurs onward, latest forecast model solutions made significant
changes from solutions seen the previous couple of days.  The most
notable changes are seen in the ECMWF and GEM models which give a
new prediction of much drier conditions over central and southwest
MT. Meanwhile, the GFS kept closer to its earlier runs in showing
periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thurs
night through Sat evening.  The disparate forecasts hinge on the
placement and evolution of an upper-level trof that will extend from
Alberta/Saskatchewan to central California beginning Thurs.  The
drier ECMWF/GEM models bring the trof axis into western MT which
keeps a re-developing monsoonal moisture flow well southeast of our
forecast area.  The GFS, on the other hand, holds the trof axis much
further west over WA/OR, allowing a steady flow of combined Pacific
and monsoonal moisture to generate the aforementioned
precipitation.  However, there are some inconsistencies in the GFS
solution, mainly that is doesn`t develop any precipitation upstream
in eastern Oregon or southern Idaho as we often see with a Pacific
moisture stream in this type of weather pattern.  Given all these
differences, confidence is low at this point that any of the models
has an accurate read on conditions for the latter half of next
week.  The current extended period precipitation grids are a very
rough compromise between the solutions, and rely heavily on
climatological probabilities of precipitation (about 20-25% for the
region during early Sept). Further, and possibly significant,
changes in the forecast are likely, but those will have to wait for
signs of increased model run consistency/agreement in the days ahead.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  49  68  46 /  60  20  10  10
CTB  72  47  67  46 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  74  48  69  46 /  50  20  20  10
BZN  70  45  65  41 /  70  50  20  20
WEY  61  35  56  31 /  60  50  20  20
DLN  69  45  63  43 /  60  40  20  20
HVR  77  50  73  47 /  60  20  10  10
LWT  72  49  67  46 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 300951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROF LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROF DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND SETS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF STIES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. IF A STRONGER STORM HAPPENS TO
PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE OFF CHANCE THAT MVFR VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG OR MIST WILL SNEAK OVER KSDY DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS IT HAS DONE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

WINDS...FROM THE ESE EARLY AROUND 10 MPH...GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE STORMS. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300951
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BROAD UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS FIRST IMPULSE IN THE
TROF LIFTS OUT OF IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE MORNING AS WAVE
ADVANCES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC...BUT BEST PARAMETERS ARE IN
NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROF DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS MORE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE TROF FOR A FEW STORMS
FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN FLOW BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW OK
AGREEMENT...BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES GIVE RISE TO SOME DOUBT WHETHER
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT SEEN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...MORE CONSENSUS SEEN FOR A DRY FORECAST
MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN FLEETING
CHANCES FOR A TRACE OF PRECIP HERE OR THERE THROUGHOUT. IT COULD
BE THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS JUST TOO
STRETCHED OUT THROUGH THE LOBES OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AT LARGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT MUCH. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND SETS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF STIES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. IF A STRONGER STORM HAPPENS TO
PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE OFF CHANCE THAT MVFR VISIBILITY IN PATCHY
FOG OR MIST WILL SNEAK OVER KSDY DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS IT HAS DONE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

WINDS...FROM THE ESE EARLY AROUND 10 MPH...GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE STORMS. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 300942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms
currently passing through Idaho and western Montana this morning
is association with a cold front. Wind gusts of around 25 mph are
also expected to accompany the frontal passage. Most of this
initial rain will move off to the east by around 8am but unstable
conditions behind the front will lead to additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms by this afternoon. Best chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon are through Lemhi County Idaho and
into southwest Montana near and south of Butte. Winds will also
increase and become widespread during the afternoon so area lakes
are likely to experience choppy conditions.

Showers and cloud cover will continue to pass overnight tonight
with continued instability and upslope flow. These shower chances
have been increased through Sunday as the trough passes through
the region. Sunday will also be a cool day with afternoon breezes.
An upper level jet passing on Monday has the potential to keep
cool, cloudy and showery weather through much of Monday as well.

Model guidance agree that the flow pattern for Tuesday is going
to be a drier westerly flow so warmer temperatures and dry
conditions are in the forecast.

The next trough is still on track to clip the region on Wednesday
and higher chances for rain remain through northwest Montana.

For the rest of the extended forecast the trend has maintained
from the previous shift with shower chances and below normal
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers are currently passing through north central
Idaho and western Montana as a cold front passes through the
region. Winds gusts around 20-25 kts have been observed with the
front that will pass off to the south and east through this
morning. Showers will briefly decrease post frontal but unstable
conditions will lead to additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. The best locations for thunderstorms
will be from KSMN, KBTM and south. Widespread wind will increase
through this morning and become gusty by this afternoon with
general gusts between 20-30 kts. Cloud cover and showers are
forecast to remain through tonight as the upper trough moves over
the region, so obscured terrain should be expected.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 300942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms
currently passing through Idaho and western Montana this morning
is association with a cold front. Wind gusts of around 25 mph are
also expected to accompany the frontal passage. Most of this
initial rain will move off to the east by around 8am but unstable
conditions behind the front will lead to additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms by this afternoon. Best chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon are through Lemhi County Idaho and
into southwest Montana near and south of Butte. Winds will also
increase and become widespread during the afternoon so area lakes
are likely to experience choppy conditions.

Showers and cloud cover will continue to pass overnight tonight
with continued instability and upslope flow. These shower chances
have been increased through Sunday as the trough passes through
the region. Sunday will also be a cool day with afternoon breezes.
An upper level jet passing on Monday has the potential to keep
cool, cloudy and showery weather through much of Monday as well.

Model guidance agree that the flow pattern for Tuesday is going
to be a drier westerly flow so warmer temperatures and dry
conditions are in the forecast.

The next trough is still on track to clip the region on Wednesday
and higher chances for rain remain through northwest Montana.

For the rest of the extended forecast the trend has maintained
from the previous shift with shower chances and below normal
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers are currently passing through north central
Idaho and western Montana as a cold front passes through the
region. Winds gusts around 20-25 kts have been observed with the
front that will pass off to the south and east through this
morning. Showers will briefly decrease post frontal but unstable
conditions will lead to additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. The best locations for thunderstorms
will be from KSMN, KBTM and south. Widespread wind will increase
through this morning and become gusty by this afternoon with
general gusts between 20-30 kts. Cloud cover and showers are
forecast to remain through tonight as the upper trough moves over
the region, so obscured terrain should be expected.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 300942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms
currently passing through Idaho and western Montana this morning
is association with a cold front. Wind gusts of around 25 mph are
also expected to accompany the frontal passage. Most of this
initial rain will move off to the east by around 8am but unstable
conditions behind the front will lead to additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms by this afternoon. Best chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon are through Lemhi County Idaho and
into southwest Montana near and south of Butte. Winds will also
increase and become widespread during the afternoon so area lakes
are likely to experience choppy conditions.

Showers and cloud cover will continue to pass overnight tonight
with continued instability and upslope flow. These shower chances
have been increased through Sunday as the trough passes through
the region. Sunday will also be a cool day with afternoon breezes.
An upper level jet passing on Monday has the potential to keep
cool, cloudy and showery weather through much of Monday as well.

Model guidance agree that the flow pattern for Tuesday is going
to be a drier westerly flow so warmer temperatures and dry
conditions are in the forecast.

The next trough is still on track to clip the region on Wednesday
and higher chances for rain remain through northwest Montana.

For the rest of the extended forecast the trend has maintained
from the previous shift with shower chances and below normal
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers are currently passing through north central
Idaho and western Montana as a cold front passes through the
region. Winds gusts around 20-25 kts have been observed with the
front that will pass off to the south and east through this
morning. Showers will briefly decrease post frontal but unstable
conditions will lead to additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. The best locations for thunderstorms
will be from KSMN, KBTM and south. Widespread wind will increase
through this morning and become gusty by this afternoon with
general gusts between 20-30 kts. Cloud cover and showers are
forecast to remain through tonight as the upper trough moves over
the region, so obscured terrain should be expected.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 300942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms
currently passing through Idaho and western Montana this morning
is association with a cold front. Wind gusts of around 25 mph are
also expected to accompany the frontal passage. Most of this
initial rain will move off to the east by around 8am but unstable
conditions behind the front will lead to additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms by this afternoon. Best chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon are through Lemhi County Idaho and
into southwest Montana near and south of Butte. Winds will also
increase and become widespread during the afternoon so area lakes
are likely to experience choppy conditions.

Showers and cloud cover will continue to pass overnight tonight
with continued instability and upslope flow. These shower chances
have been increased through Sunday as the trough passes through
the region. Sunday will also be a cool day with afternoon breezes.
An upper level jet passing on Monday has the potential to keep
cool, cloudy and showery weather through much of Monday as well.

Model guidance agree that the flow pattern for Tuesday is going
to be a drier westerly flow so warmer temperatures and dry
conditions are in the forecast.

The next trough is still on track to clip the region on Wednesday
and higher chances for rain remain through northwest Montana.

For the rest of the extended forecast the trend has maintained
from the previous shift with shower chances and below normal
temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers are currently passing through north central
Idaho and western Montana as a cold front passes through the
region. Winds gusts around 20-25 kts have been observed with the
front that will pass off to the south and east through this
morning. Showers will briefly decrease post frontal but unstable
conditions will lead to additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. The best locations for thunderstorms
will be from KSMN, KBTM and south. Widespread wind will increase
through this morning and become gusty by this afternoon with
general gusts between 20-30 kts. Cloud cover and showers are
forecast to remain through tonight as the upper trough moves over
the region, so obscured terrain should be expected.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300905
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
305 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AS TWO SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES TRACK THROUGH A BROADER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND REQUIRED
LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS. WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND WET
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND RIDE THE SW FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WE HAVE ANTICIPATED. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL PROGGING A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE FROM THE SE CORNER OF MONTANA TO
THE NE CORNER OF WYOMING. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CONVERGENT AREA IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...OUR TYPICAL SET UP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE ARE PROGGED JUST WEST OF THE
MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AS UPWARD FORCING MOVES THROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. SO A SHORT WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUFKIT DATA INDICATES
THE CAP BREAKING BETWEEN 3PM AND 4PM IN THE BAKER AREA. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH BOX ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND AND SOME
HAIL FOR THIS PATTERN WHICH PROVIDES US FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF THE
THREAT. THUS...WE WILL ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ZONES
IN THE FAR EAST TODAY...AND FOCUS ON IT A LITTLE HARDER IN OUR WX
STORY ETC.

THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL HELP ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. I RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ENERGY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING LINGERING A FEW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN. MODELS ARE HOWEVER TAKING TAKING DIFFERENT TACK ON HOW
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH
HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF. THERE IS
ALSO SOME INDICATION OF SHALLOW RIDGING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGE...CLIMBING ONLY TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN UPPER
TROF WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MODELS VARY A BIT ON TIMING OF WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION AS WELL AS WHETHER TROF AXIS CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR NOT. THE GFS SEEMS TO FAVOR KEEPING THE TROF ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AND ANGLING INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE TROF...AND KEEPS THE BEST
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH
POPS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS THE
GFS SEEMS MOST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE ECMWF IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM 24HRS AGO. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WEST OF KBIL THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LOCAL MVFR AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PRECIP. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 054/069 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    6/T 54/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 071 046/067 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    7/T 63/T    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 076 054/072 051/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    4/T 45/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 077 056/073 053/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    3/T 34/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 083 055/070 051/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    3/T 55/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
BHK 079 054/071 049/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    4/T 53/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 080 052/068 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    3/T 45/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300905
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
305 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AS TWO SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES TRACK THROUGH A BROADER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND REQUIRED
LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS. WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND WET
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND RIDE THE SW FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WE HAVE ANTICIPATED. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL PROGGING A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE FROM THE SE CORNER OF MONTANA TO
THE NE CORNER OF WYOMING. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CONVERGENT AREA IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...OUR TYPICAL SET UP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE ARE PROGGED JUST WEST OF THE
MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AS UPWARD FORCING MOVES THROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. SO A SHORT WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUFKIT DATA INDICATES
THE CAP BREAKING BETWEEN 3PM AND 4PM IN THE BAKER AREA. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH BOX ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND AND SOME
HAIL FOR THIS PATTERN WHICH PROVIDES US FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF THE
THREAT. THUS...WE WILL ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ZONES
IN THE FAR EAST TODAY...AND FOCUS ON IT A LITTLE HARDER IN OUR WX
STORY ETC.

THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL HELP ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. I RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ENERGY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING LINGERING A FEW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN. MODELS ARE HOWEVER TAKING TAKING DIFFERENT TACK ON HOW
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH
HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF. THERE IS
ALSO SOME INDICATION OF SHALLOW RIDGING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGE...CLIMBING ONLY TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN UPPER
TROF WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MODELS VARY A BIT ON TIMING OF WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION AS WELL AS WHETHER TROF AXIS CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR NOT. THE GFS SEEMS TO FAVOR KEEPING THE TROF ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AND ANGLING INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE TROF...AND KEEPS THE BEST
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH
POPS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS THE
GFS SEEMS MOST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE ECMWF IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM 24HRS AGO. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WEST OF KBIL THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LOCAL MVFR AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PRECIP. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 054/069 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    6/T 54/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 071 046/067 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    7/T 63/T    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 076 054/072 051/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    4/T 45/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 077 056/073 053/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    3/T 34/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 083 055/070 051/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    3/T 55/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
BHK 079 054/071 049/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    4/T 53/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 080 052/068 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    3/T 45/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300419
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made some minor adjustments to the PoP
grids for the remainder of tonight. Water vapor and IR satellite
imagery clearly show upper trof position as it approaches western
Montana. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed out ahead
of the trof and these continue to move across southwest Montana.
This precipitation should increase in areal coverage after midnight
and begin spreading north and east as noted by the latest RUC and
HRRR analysis. Wet and unsettled morning continues to look on track.
Temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 300419
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made some minor adjustments to the PoP
grids for the remainder of tonight. Water vapor and IR satellite
imagery clearly show upper trof position as it approaches western
Montana. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed out ahead
of the trof and these continue to move across southwest Montana.
This precipitation should increase in areal coverage after midnight
and begin spreading north and east as noted by the latest RUC and
HRRR analysis. Wet and unsettled morning continues to look on track.
Temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 300419
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made some minor adjustments to the PoP
grids for the remainder of tonight. Water vapor and IR satellite
imagery clearly show upper trof position as it approaches western
Montana. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed out ahead
of the trof and these continue to move across southwest Montana.
This precipitation should increase in areal coverage after midnight
and begin spreading north and east as noted by the latest RUC and
HRRR analysis. Wet and unsettled morning continues to look on track.
Temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 300419
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made some minor adjustments to the PoP
grids for the remainder of tonight. Water vapor and IR satellite
imagery clearly show upper trof position as it approaches western
Montana. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed out ahead
of the trof and these continue to move across southwest Montana.
This precipitation should increase in areal coverage after midnight
and begin spreading north and east as noted by the latest RUC and
HRRR analysis. Wet and unsettled morning continues to look on track.
Temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0420Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to diminish Saturday evening. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300321
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY HAS
MOVED THROUGH BURNS OREGON SO THAT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A 12-14Z
ARRIVAL IN BILLINGS. RAP MODEL PREVENTS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE DETAILS WELL. NO UPDATES.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SHOWER AND ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WEST OF KBIL LATER TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH LOCAL MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300321
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY HAS
MOVED THROUGH BURNS OREGON SO THAT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A 12-14Z
ARRIVAL IN BILLINGS. RAP MODEL PREVENTS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE DETAILS WELL. NO UPDATES.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SHOWER AND ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WEST OF KBIL LATER TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH LOCAL MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300321
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY HAS
MOVED THROUGH BURNS OREGON SO THAT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A 12-14Z
ARRIVAL IN BILLINGS. RAP MODEL PREVENTS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE DETAILS WELL. NO UPDATES.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SHOWER AND ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WEST OF KBIL LATER TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH LOCAL MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300321
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY HAS
MOVED THROUGH BURNS OREGON SO THAT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A 12-14Z
ARRIVAL IN BILLINGS. RAP MODEL PREVENTS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE DETAILS WELL. NO UPDATES.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SHOWER AND ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WEST OF KBIL LATER TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH LOCAL MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 300255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made some minor adjustments to the PoP
grids for the remainder of tonight. Water vapor and IR satellite
imagery clearly show upper trof position as it approaches western
Montana. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed out ahead
of the trof and these continue to move across southwest Montana.
This precipitation should increase in areal coverage after midnight
and begin spreading north and east as noted by the latest RUC and
HRRR analysis. Wet and unsettled morning continues to look on track.
Temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls









000
FXUS65 KTFX 300255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have made some minor adjustments to the PoP
grids for the remainder of tonight. Water vapor and IR satellite
imagery clearly show upper trof position as it approaches western
Montana. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed out ahead
of the trof and these continue to move across southwest Montana.
This precipitation should increase in areal coverage after midnight
and begin spreading north and east as noted by the latest RUC and
HRRR analysis. Wet and unsettled morning continues to look on track.
Temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KGGW 300223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING
PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING
PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING
PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 300223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING
PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 292339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 292339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 292339
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A weather disturbance and cold front will move through the area
Saturday morning. Showers will develop ahead of the cold front over
southwest and central Montana late tonight then continue into
Saturday morning as the disturbance and cold front move through.
During the afternoon expect more showers and a few thunderstorms
near and south of a KLWT to KHLN line with scattered showers north
to near U.S. route 2. As mentioned in the previous discussion expect
generally VFR conditions with the showers/thunderstorms although can
not rule out local MVFR conditions. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT KLVM AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KBIL AND KMLS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT KLVM AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KBIL AND KMLS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 292050
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
An upper level low pressure system will move into the Pacific
Northwest tonight and an associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border early Saturday and move into Southwest Montana by
noon. Scattered showers will develop near frontal passage although
widespread precipitation is not expected. Local MVFR CIGS are
possible near rains showers although VFR conditions will generally
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 292050
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
250 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers and thunderstorm will
develop in far Southwest Montana this evening then increase in
coverage overnight. Showers and storms spread into Central Montana
by Saturday morning then continue on into Eastern Montana as an
associated upper wave moves east. A reinforcing trough swings into
the state during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing in Southwest and Central Montana through
the afternoon; however, only isolated showers are expected over my
northwestern zones. Conditions will improve overnight as the
trough axis moves eastward leaving a cool and slightly unsettled
airmass in place over the forecast area for Sunday. mpj

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a cooler Canadian
airmass and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over
the central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
An upper level low pressure system will move into the Pacific
Northwest tonight and an associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border early Saturday and move into Southwest Montana by
noon. Scattered showers will develop near frontal passage although
widespread precipitation is not expected. Local MVFR CIGS are
possible near rains showers although VFR conditions will generally
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  73  48  69 /  20  50  10  10
CTB  53  71  46  67 /   0  20  10  10
HLN  56  73  47  70 /  40  60  20  10
BZN  49  70  44  66 /  40  70  40  10
WEY  43  61  35  57 /  40  80  50  10
DLN  51  69  45  65 /  50  70  40  10
HVR  55  76  49  73 /   0  50  10   0
LWT  53  72  48  67 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 292026
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE TROUGH
PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING PATCHY
FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK IN TO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 292026
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE TROUGH
PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING PATCHY
FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK IN TO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN VALLEY
COUNTY AND BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING BUT THE WARNING WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEVEL NEAR HINSDALE HAS
FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 292004
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
201 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure across the Northern Rockies this
afternoon continues to break down and in turn the atmosphere is
starting to show sign of destabilizing through the presence of
gusty winds and some puffy cumulus clouds. However, instability
and moisture are still insufficient to produce anything more than
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across Lemhi County
and maybe Glacier National Park near the Canadian border. For the
rest of the area, the chance for showers or thunderstorms will
wait until overnight when an approaching Pacific cold front sweeps
through the region. A round of very early morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop over central Idaho between
12am - 3am and move northeast across parts of west central and
southwest Montana (generally south of a line from Ronan to Seeley
Lake). The most numerous and strongest storms are expected across
southwest Montana (Butte/Philipsburg/Georgetown area) and Lemhi
County in Idaho.

Convection will decrease some to a more showery regime after
daybreak Saturday morning in the cool and breezy post-frontal
environment. However, the atmosphere will quickly grow unstable
once again during the afternoon, promoting gusty winds across all
of western Montana and a return of some shower activity. We could
even see a few embedded thunderstorms with the key threats being
heavy rain and lightning. Again, the focus of strongest storms
will be spread across southwest Montana. The strongest winds are
expected during the afternoon and could result in some enhanced
wave action on area lakes. Currently it appears waves of 2-3ft
will be possible across parts of Flathead Lake according to our
wave model. These winds should start to subside shortly after
sunset as the atmosphere grows more stable. Sunday looks to be
much less showery and windy than earlier model runs suggested,
though a slight chance for light rain showers will remain during
the afternoon. On the other hand, Monday now appears to be the
showery day as the upper level jet passes overhead during the
afternoon.

Tuesday: The upper level flow becomes more westerly and a little
stronger, which will translate to warmer temperatures and gusty
winds across the region. The best chances for precipitation will
across northwest Montana especially across the higher terrain.

Wednesday: A positively-tilted upper trough seems to be the
consensus solution among the weather models. This would equate to
a lower chance for precipitation across central Idaho and
southwest Montana, and higher chances across northwest Montana.

Thursday and beyond: What a change in model solutions in the past
24 hours! They have dropped the upper level low possibility with
its widespread precipitation tune over western Montana and now
have a general trough over WA to CA. Due to this change, we have
started to trend the chance for precipitation lower across
northwest Montana and a little higher over central Idaho and
southwest Montana. Also, have trended warmer on temperatures.
With southwest flow developing, this would be good pattern for
thunderstorm activity especially from central Idaho to southwest
Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front passage tonight into Saturday morning
will keep breezy conditions into Saturday. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of and with the cold
frontal passage, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest
Montana this evening and overnight. Airfields KSMN and KBTM have
the best potential for early morning showers and thunderstorms, though
it may spread north to KMSO. Saturday still looks breezy and
showery with a slight chance for some afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 292004
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
201 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure across the Northern Rockies this
afternoon continues to break down and in turn the atmosphere is
starting to show sign of destabilizing through the presence of
gusty winds and some puffy cumulus clouds. However, instability
and moisture are still insufficient to produce anything more than
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across Lemhi County
and maybe Glacier National Park near the Canadian border. For the
rest of the area, the chance for showers or thunderstorms will
wait until overnight when an approaching Pacific cold front sweeps
through the region. A round of very early morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop over central Idaho between
12am - 3am and move northeast across parts of west central and
southwest Montana (generally south of a line from Ronan to Seeley
Lake). The most numerous and strongest storms are expected across
southwest Montana (Butte/Philipsburg/Georgetown area) and Lemhi
County in Idaho.

Convection will decrease some to a more showery regime after
daybreak Saturday morning in the cool and breezy post-frontal
environment. However, the atmosphere will quickly grow unstable
once again during the afternoon, promoting gusty winds across all
of western Montana and a return of some shower activity. We could
even see a few embedded thunderstorms with the key threats being
heavy rain and lightning. Again, the focus of strongest storms
will be spread across southwest Montana. The strongest winds are
expected during the afternoon and could result in some enhanced
wave action on area lakes. Currently it appears waves of 2-3ft
will be possible across parts of Flathead Lake according to our
wave model. These winds should start to subside shortly after
sunset as the atmosphere grows more stable. Sunday looks to be
much less showery and windy than earlier model runs suggested,
though a slight chance for light rain showers will remain during
the afternoon. On the other hand, Monday now appears to be the
showery day as the upper level jet passes overhead during the
afternoon.

Tuesday: The upper level flow becomes more westerly and a little
stronger, which will translate to warmer temperatures and gusty
winds across the region. The best chances for precipitation will
across northwest Montana especially across the higher terrain.

Wednesday: A positively-tilted upper trough seems to be the
consensus solution among the weather models. This would equate to
a lower chance for precipitation across central Idaho and
southwest Montana, and higher chances across northwest Montana.

Thursday and beyond: What a change in model solutions in the past
24 hours! They have dropped the upper level low possibility with
its widespread precipitation tune over western Montana and now
have a general trough over WA to CA. Due to this change, we have
started to trend the chance for precipitation lower across
northwest Montana and a little higher over central Idaho and
southwest Montana. Also, have trended warmer on temperatures.
With southwest flow developing, this would be good pattern for
thunderstorm activity especially from central Idaho to southwest
Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front passage tonight into Saturday morning
will keep breezy conditions into Saturday. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of and with the cold
frontal passage, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest
Montana this evening and overnight. Airfields KSMN and KBTM have
the best potential for early morning showers and thunderstorms, though
it may spread north to KMSO. Saturday still looks breezy and
showery with a slight chance for some afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 292004
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
201 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure across the Northern Rockies this
afternoon continues to break down and in turn the atmosphere is
starting to show sign of destabilizing through the presence of
gusty winds and some puffy cumulus clouds. However, instability
and moisture are still insufficient to produce anything more than
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across Lemhi County
and maybe Glacier National Park near the Canadian border. For the
rest of the area, the chance for showers or thunderstorms will
wait until overnight when an approaching Pacific cold front sweeps
through the region. A round of very early morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop over central Idaho between
12am - 3am and move northeast across parts of west central and
southwest Montana (generally south of a line from Ronan to Seeley
Lake). The most numerous and strongest storms are expected across
southwest Montana (Butte/Philipsburg/Georgetown area) and Lemhi
County in Idaho.

Convection will decrease some to a more showery regime after
daybreak Saturday morning in the cool and breezy post-frontal
environment. However, the atmosphere will quickly grow unstable
once again during the afternoon, promoting gusty winds across all
of western Montana and a return of some shower activity. We could
even see a few embedded thunderstorms with the key threats being
heavy rain and lightning. Again, the focus of strongest storms
will be spread across southwest Montana. The strongest winds are
expected during the afternoon and could result in some enhanced
wave action on area lakes. Currently it appears waves of 2-3ft
will be possible across parts of Flathead Lake according to our
wave model. These winds should start to subside shortly after
sunset as the atmosphere grows more stable. Sunday looks to be
much less showery and windy than earlier model runs suggested,
though a slight chance for light rain showers will remain during
the afternoon. On the other hand, Monday now appears to be the
showery day as the upper level jet passes overhead during the
afternoon.

Tuesday: The upper level flow becomes more westerly and a little
stronger, which will translate to warmer temperatures and gusty
winds across the region. The best chances for precipitation will
across northwest Montana especially across the higher terrain.

Wednesday: A positively-tilted upper trough seems to be the
consensus solution among the weather models. This would equate to
a lower chance for precipitation across central Idaho and
southwest Montana, and higher chances across northwest Montana.

Thursday and beyond: What a change in model solutions in the past
24 hours! They have dropped the upper level low possibility with
its widespread precipitation tune over western Montana and now
have a general trough over WA to CA. Due to this change, we have
started to trend the chance for precipitation lower across
northwest Montana and a little higher over central Idaho and
southwest Montana. Also, have trended warmer on temperatures.
With southwest flow developing, this would be good pattern for
thunderstorm activity especially from central Idaho to southwest
Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front passage tonight into Saturday morning
will keep breezy conditions into Saturday. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of and with the cold
frontal passage, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest
Montana this evening and overnight. Airfields KSMN and KBTM have
the best potential for early morning showers and thunderstorms, though
it may spread north to KMSO. Saturday still looks breezy and
showery with a slight chance for some afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 292004
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
201 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure across the Northern Rockies this
afternoon continues to break down and in turn the atmosphere is
starting to show sign of destabilizing through the presence of
gusty winds and some puffy cumulus clouds. However, instability
and moisture are still insufficient to produce anything more than
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across Lemhi County
and maybe Glacier National Park near the Canadian border. For the
rest of the area, the chance for showers or thunderstorms will
wait until overnight when an approaching Pacific cold front sweeps
through the region. A round of very early morning showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop over central Idaho between
12am - 3am and move northeast across parts of west central and
southwest Montana (generally south of a line from Ronan to Seeley
Lake). The most numerous and strongest storms are expected across
southwest Montana (Butte/Philipsburg/Georgetown area) and Lemhi
County in Idaho.

Convection will decrease some to a more showery regime after
daybreak Saturday morning in the cool and breezy post-frontal
environment. However, the atmosphere will quickly grow unstable
once again during the afternoon, promoting gusty winds across all
of western Montana and a return of some shower activity. We could
even see a few embedded thunderstorms with the key threats being
heavy rain and lightning. Again, the focus of strongest storms
will be spread across southwest Montana. The strongest winds are
expected during the afternoon and could result in some enhanced
wave action on area lakes. Currently it appears waves of 2-3ft
will be possible across parts of Flathead Lake according to our
wave model. These winds should start to subside shortly after
sunset as the atmosphere grows more stable. Sunday looks to be
much less showery and windy than earlier model runs suggested,
though a slight chance for light rain showers will remain during
the afternoon. On the other hand, Monday now appears to be the
showery day as the upper level jet passes overhead during the
afternoon.

Tuesday: The upper level flow becomes more westerly and a little
stronger, which will translate to warmer temperatures and gusty
winds across the region. The best chances for precipitation will
across northwest Montana especially across the higher terrain.

Wednesday: A positively-tilted upper trough seems to be the
consensus solution among the weather models. This would equate to
a lower chance for precipitation across central Idaho and
southwest Montana, and higher chances across northwest Montana.

Thursday and beyond: What a change in model solutions in the past
24 hours! They have dropped the upper level low possibility with
its widespread precipitation tune over western Montana and now
have a general trough over WA to CA. Due to this change, we have
started to trend the chance for precipitation lower across
northwest Montana and a little higher over central Idaho and
southwest Montana. Also, have trended warmer on temperatures.
With southwest flow developing, this would be good pattern for
thunderstorm activity especially from central Idaho to southwest
Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front passage tonight into Saturday morning
will keep breezy conditions into Saturday. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of and with the cold
frontal passage, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest
Montana this evening and overnight. Airfields KSMN and KBTM have
the best potential for early morning showers and thunderstorms, though
it may spread north to KMSO. Saturday still looks breezy and
showery with a slight chance for some afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...Updated early this morning to add areas of fog until 10
AM. With some areas of fog persisting I have updated again to
extend the fog until noon. Have also made tweaks to sky condition
in areas where fog has lifted into a low stratus deck, and have
updated winds to be more in keeping with observed and expected
conditions for the remainder of today. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
An upper level low pressure system will move into the Pacific
Northwest tonight and an associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border early Saturday and move into Southwest Montana by
noon. Scattered showers will develop near frontal passage although
widespread precipitation is not expected. Local MVFR CIGS are
possible near rains showers although VFR conditions will generally
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 291732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...Updated early this morning to add areas of fog until 10
AM. With some areas of fog persisting I have updated again to
extend the fog until noon. Have also made tweaks to sky condition
in areas where fog has lifted into a low stratus deck, and have
updated winds to be more in keeping with observed and expected
conditions for the remainder of today. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
An upper level low pressure system will move into the Pacific
Northwest tonight and an associated cold front will cross the
Canadian border early Saturday and move into Southwest Montana by
noon. Scattered showers will develop near frontal passage although
widespread precipitation is not expected. Local MVFR CIGS are
possible near rains showers although VFR conditions will generally
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TWEAKED POPS DOWN SOME
ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT TO SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO A NICE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL ZONES. Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
EXITS THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO INSTABILITY AS COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...AND ARE REINFORCED BY SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
CARVING OUT A PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL PROGGS POINT TO A RISK OVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS WELL DUE TO SOME MODERATE SHEAR PROFILES
AND DECENT FORCING FROM UPPER JET DYNAMICS. BASED ON THE
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC INFLUENCES AND POTENTIAL TAP OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE /SEE WATER VAPOR LOOPS OFF CALIFORNIA COAST/ I HAVE
RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MODELS
REMAINING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINISH UP THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF CROSSES THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHORT DRY PERIOD...AND A BIT OF A
WARMUP. TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROF IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS TO STAY INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE TROF DEEPENS. SPECIFICS WITH RELATION TO THIS
TROF IMPACTING THE REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE COAST OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING MONSOONAL FLOW INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND
KEPT TEMPS COOL TO END THE WORKWEEK. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM KMLS TO KSHR WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING VFR
FLYING WEATHER FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20KTS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SPREAD EAST INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY SATURDAY. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 056/073 053/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    1/B 15/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 081 051/070 044/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    1/B 17/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 079 056/077 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    1/B 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    23/T
MLS 077 058/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 078 057/085 054/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
BHK 076 055/080 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    2/T 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
SHR 079 053/081 051/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    2/T 03/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 291547
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
947 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...Updated early this morning to add areas of fog until 10
AM. With some areas of fog persisting I have updated again to
extend the fog until noon. Have also made tweaks to sky condition
in areas where fog has lifted into a low stratus deck, and have
updated winds to be more in keeping with observed and expected
conditions for the remainder of today. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291547
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
947 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...Updated early this morning to add areas of fog until 10
AM. With some areas of fog persisting I have updated again to
extend the fog until noon. Have also made tweaks to sky condition
in areas where fog has lifted into a low stratus deck, and have
updated winds to be more in keeping with observed and expected
conditions for the remainder of today. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291547
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
947 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...Updated early this morning to add areas of fog until 10
AM. With some areas of fog persisting I have updated again to
extend the fog until noon. Have also made tweaks to sky condition
in areas where fog has lifted into a low stratus deck, and have
updated winds to be more in keeping with observed and expected
conditions for the remainder of today. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291547
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
947 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...Updated early this morning to add areas of fog until 10
AM. With some areas of fog persisting I have updated again to
extend the fog until noon. Have also made tweaks to sky condition
in areas where fog has lifted into a low stratus deck, and have
updated winds to be more in keeping with observed and expected
conditions for the remainder of today. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model consensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY. BIGGEST
CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND DECREASE SOME
OF THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SWITCH FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY. BIGGEST
CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND DECREASE SOME
OF THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SWITCH FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY. BIGGEST
CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND DECREASE SOME
OF THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SWITCH FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 291528
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
928 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY. BIGGEST
CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND DECREASE SOME
OF THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SWITCH FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND BEAVER
CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 291142
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model concensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291142
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model concensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291142
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model concensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291142
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model concensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
The weak upper-level trof that produced scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central and southwest MT last night is now
downstream in eastern MT.  Residual moisture behind the trof is
still generating patchy areas of MVFR ceilings and fog vcnty
KCTB/KHVR but expect those conditions to dissipate by 15-16Z.  VFR
conditions with a mix of clear skies and scattered mid- and high
cloud cover are forecast through this evening.  Clouds begin to
increase and lower tonight as the next weather system approaches
from the west, with isolated to scattered showers developing over
southwest MT after 06Z. Winds will be light across the region today.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 291014
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
414 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model concensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCTB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 12z. The main problem tonight will be dealing with
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Confidence in ceiling forecasts over the plains
is low as some guidance has these lower ceilings while other
guidance keeps conditions VFR. Be aware that there could be local
MVFR/IFR visibilities as well. What low clouds there are early
Friday morning should dissipate between 15z-18z Friday. Friday
afternoon and evening expect clear skies to scattered clouds with
isolated thunderstorms possible south of a KBZN-KDLN line. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 291014
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
414 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery early this morning over the Gulf of Alaska and E
Pacific Ocean displayed a large wrapped-up cyclone and expansive
trough, with an impressive cold frontal cloud band, making steady
progress to the ESE. The low was positioned near 55 N 140 W. The
mid-level cold front will reach Montana tonight, signaling a
change to below average temps that will last into next week.

Today...Quiet weather is forecast with the exception of a few
isolated showers/storms over the far Southwest. Highs will still be
near 80 F.

Tonight and Saturday...Models are in agreement with mid and upper
dynamics moving across the N Rockies early Saturday morning into the
aftn. 300 mb divergence will overspread the region as a strong jet
exit region dives through Idaho. A defined area of 700 mb
frontogenesis will also pass through during the morning...and linger
into the evening over the SW. PWAT values will be near 0.75
inches, close to 2 standard deviations above the mean, which means
plenty of moisture for moderate to heavy rain producing showers.

Precip forecast best follows the SREF but with a tenth or two
less at lower elevations. This method produced 0.20 to 0.40 inch
amounts south of a HLN-to-LWT line. Areas that receive heavier
showers or embedded thunderstorms may accumulate over 0.50 inches.
The NAM and GFS both predict a heavier band with amounts near 1
inch over central and southern Madison and Gallatin Counties. This
area is superimposed with the low/mid-level frontogenesis that
remains in the region into the evening.

Sunday...Mid-level trough axis will move eastward out of Montana.
Heights will rise slightly and breezy west winds will bring in much
drier air with dewpoints falling into the 30s and PWATS falling to
around 0.40 or 0.50 inches. Highs will be in the 60s. Uttech

Sunday Night through Friday...Relatively quiet weather conditions
expected for first half of next week.  A weak, quick-moving
shortwave trof will sweep across the state on Mon.  GFS and GEM
forecast models indicate little, if any, precipitation with the trof
while the ECMWF continues to indicate broad coverage of showers
mainly over the southwest counties on Mon aftn/eve. Since a
northwest flow pattern aloft (like we`ll have on Mon) usually will
generate isolated showers with even minimal moisture and
instability, have kept in a slight chance of rain showers over the
astern third of the forecast area on Mon.  Weak, transient high
pressure ridging will make for dry conditions from Tues through Wed,
with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 70s) as winds
aloft transition to westerly.  Stronger shortwave trof is forecast
to arrive on Thurs, though model solutions still showing some marked
run-to-run differences on the shortwave`s timing and precipitation
coverage for Thurs and Fri. General model concensus is that most of
the precipitation will occur Thur eve through midday Fri, behind a
surface cold front that tracks across the region on Thurs morning.
Some locations, especially along/south of a Helena-Lewistown line
may see rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50 inch, with lighter amounts
further north.  The front will also usher in a much-cooler Canadian
airmass, that will keep high temps on Fri only in the mid to upper
50s and bring snow levels down to the 6500-7500 ft range over the
central mountains and the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCTB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 12z. The main problem tonight will be dealing with
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Confidence in ceiling forecasts over the plains
is low as some guidance has these lower ceilings while other
guidance keeps conditions VFR. Be aware that there could be local
MVFR/IFR visibilities as well. What low clouds there are early
Friday morning should dissipate between 15z-18z Friday. Friday
afternoon and evening expect clear skies to scattered clouds with
isolated thunderstorms possible south of a KBZN-KDLN line. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  72  48 /   0  20  60  10
CTB  77  53  70  46 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  83  54  73  46 /   0  20  50  20
BZN  80  49  69  41 /  10  20  60  30
WEY  70  42  63  33 /  10  30  60  40
DLN  80  51  68  44 /  20  30  60  30
HVR  76  54  76  49 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  74  53  69  47 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 290950
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
350 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has briefly rebuilt over western
Montana and north central Idaho this morning, bringing an end to
showers and for the most part cloud cover. This will be short
lived however as southwest flow sets up this afternoon ahead of an
approaching upper level trough and associated cold front. The
main impact this afternoon and evening will be an increase in
southwest to west winds. Temperatures will be quite warm, likely
the warmest so far this week in many locations.

The cold front and upper level trough will swing through the
region tonight into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the cold front this evening and
tonight, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest Montana.
The biggest impact as the cold front passes Saturday will be
breezy conditions which will develop in the morning and likely
last through much of the day. Outdoor recreation could be
affected, especially for boaters on area lakes which could become
quite choppy. Another noticeable change will be a drop in
temperatures by as much as 20 degrees, lasting through the
weekend. Showery and cool will be the theme through Monday.

On Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure is expected to rebound
from the south slightly, placing the region in a westerly flow
aloft. This will allow for warmer temperatures, returning closer
to seasonal normals, and reducing shower chances.

Forecast models continue to show another lobe of the upper level
trough digging into the region Wednesday through the end of the
work week. This could lead to another period of cool, breezy
conditions, and possibly even some precipitation. Stay tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...A re-bounding ridge of high pressure this morning
should bring generally pleasant flying conditions this morning,
with only a few mid and high level clouds across the region.
Southwest flow will increase over western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon, resulting in some breezy southwest
to west winds, especially near ridge top levels. A cold front
passage tonight into Saturday morning will keep breezy conditions
into Saturday. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
ahead of and with the cold front passage, mainly across north
central Idaho into southwest Montana this evening and overnight.
Airfields KSMN and KBTM have the best potential for thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 290950
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
350 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has briefly rebuilt over western
Montana and north central Idaho this morning, bringing an end to
showers and for the most part cloud cover. This will be short
lived however as southwest flow sets up this afternoon ahead of an
approaching upper level trough and associated cold front. The
main impact this afternoon and evening will be an increase in
southwest to west winds. Temperatures will be quite warm, likely
the warmest so far this week in many locations.

The cold front and upper level trough will swing through the
region tonight into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the cold front this evening and
tonight, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest Montana.
The biggest impact as the cold front passes Saturday will be
breezy conditions which will develop in the morning and likely
last through much of the day. Outdoor recreation could be
affected, especially for boaters on area lakes which could become
quite choppy. Another noticeable change will be a drop in
temperatures by as much as 20 degrees, lasting through the
weekend. Showery and cool will be the theme through Monday.

On Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure is expected to rebound
from the south slightly, placing the region in a westerly flow
aloft. This will allow for warmer temperatures, returning closer
to seasonal normals, and reducing shower chances.

Forecast models continue to show another lobe of the upper level
trough digging into the region Wednesday through the end of the
work week. This could lead to another period of cool, breezy
conditions, and possibly even some precipitation. Stay tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...A re-bounding ridge of high pressure this morning
should bring generally pleasant flying conditions this morning,
with only a few mid and high level clouds across the region.
Southwest flow will increase over western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon, resulting in some breezy southwest
to west winds, especially near ridge top levels. A cold front
passage tonight into Saturday morning will keep breezy conditions
into Saturday. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
ahead of and with the cold front passage, mainly across north
central Idaho into southwest Montana this evening and overnight.
Airfields KSMN and KBTM have the best potential for thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KGGW 290940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STORMS...LASTING INTO
MID MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STORMS...LASTING INTO
MID MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STORMS...LASTING INTO
MID MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 290940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTS NORTHEAST MONTANA...A SERIES
OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
OCCASIONAL DAY OF CALM WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THESE SHOWERS AWAY TO THE EAST AND PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE...COOL SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...A LARGE AND WIDE-REACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO COALESCE AROUND A
CONSENSUS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND EASTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIE JUST ALONG OR NEAR THE BORDER WITH NORTH
DAKOTA.

SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA...BUT IF THAT RESULTS IN ONLY CLOUDINESS OR SOME RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EC MODEL
QUICKLY FLATTENS OUT THE TROUGH TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...KEEPING US
DRY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE TROUGH...GIVING OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES A GOOD SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE STORMS...LASTING INTO
MID MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

ON BEAVER CREEK...THE GAUGE SOUTH OF SACO IS INDICATING THE CREEK
HAS CRESTED WITH THE WATER LEVEL NOW FALLING. THE GAUGE AT
HINSDALE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT RISE...POTENTIALLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT TAMPICO IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STEADY JUST OVER 25 FT...WHILE GLASGOW AND NASHUA CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SLOW FALL. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290921
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO A NICE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL ZONES. Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
EXITS THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO INSTABILITY AS COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...AND ARE REINFORCED BY SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
CARVING OUT A PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL PROGGS POINT TO A RISK OVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS WELL DUE TO SOME MODERATE SHEAR PROFILES
AND DECENT FORCING FROM UPPER JET DYNAMICS. BASED ON THE
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC INFLUENCES AND TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE I
HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MODELS
REMAINING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINISH UP THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF CROSSES THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHORT DRY PERIOD...AND A BIT OF A
WARMUP. TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROF IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS TO STAY INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE TROF DEEPENS. SPECIFICS WITH RELATION TO THIS
TROF IMPACTING THE REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE COAST OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING MONSOONAL FLOW INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND
KEPT TEMPS COOL TO END THE WORKWEEK. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO PRYOR. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN PRECIP. THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED IN AREA
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOCAL
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 056/073 053/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    1/B 15/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 080 051/070 044/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    1/B 17/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 078 056/077 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    1/B 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 077 058/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    3/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 078 057/085 054/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
BHK 075 055/080 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    3/T 14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
SHR 078 053/081 051/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    2/W 03/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290921
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO A NICE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL ZONES. Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
EXITS THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO INSTABILITY AS COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...AND ARE REINFORCED BY SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
CARVING OUT A PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL PROGGS POINT TO A RISK OVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS WELL DUE TO SOME MODERATE SHEAR PROFILES
AND DECENT FORCING FROM UPPER JET DYNAMICS. BASED ON THE
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC INFLUENCES AND TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE I
HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MODELS
REMAINING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINISH UP THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF CROSSES THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHORT DRY PERIOD...AND A BIT OF A
WARMUP. TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROF IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS TO STAY INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE TROF DEEPENS. SPECIFICS WITH RELATION TO THIS
TROF IMPACTING THE REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE COAST OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING MONSOONAL FLOW INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND
KEPT TEMPS COOL TO END THE WORKWEEK. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO PRYOR. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN PRECIP. THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED IN AREA
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOCAL
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 056/073 053/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    1/B 15/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 080 051/070 044/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    1/B 17/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 078 056/077 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    1/B 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 077 058/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    3/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 078 057/085 054/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
BHK 075 055/080 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    3/T 14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
SHR 078 053/081 051/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    2/W 03/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 290449
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper trof and surface cold front will continue
to move across the area overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move along the Hi-Line for the next several
hours. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms also continues
to move across southwest Montana. Precipitation will continues to
move east overnight and will be mainly over eastern Montana by
daybreak. A few lingering morning showers over eastern Montana will
end by midday as shortwave ridging develops over the area.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 12z. The main problem tonight will be dealing with
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Confidence in ceiling forecasts over the plains
is low as some guidance has these lower ceilings while other
guidance keeps conditions VFR. Be aware that there could be local
MVFR/IFR visibilities as well. What low clouds there are early
Friday morning should dissipate between 15z-18z Friday. Friday
afternoon and evening expect clear skies to scattered clouds with
isolated thunderstorms possible south of a KBZN-KDLN line. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight through Saturday...Upper level disturbance and associated
surface cold front will push through North Central Montana
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over much of the forecast area this evening, but eastern
slopes of Glacier National Park should see a widespread light
rain. The remnants of the system will move east overnight through
Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft developing by
afternoon. Friday`s high temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Thursday with partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm in far Southwest Montana by late afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight and will spread into
Central Montana by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop in Southwest and eastern portions of
Central Montana for much of Saturday but only isolated showers are
expected over western portions of Central Montana. Temperatures
will continue to cool back toward seasonal averages. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...This period begins with scattered
showers behind the cold front lingering mainly over the southwest
counties and over toward Lewistown.  Slightly unstable conditions,
coupled with northwest flow aloft and residual moisture will also
produce isolated showers on Sunday along the Rocky Mtn Front and
over the southwest mountain ranges. A weak shortwave trof will move
quickly through our forecast area on Mon, bringing a fair amount of
cloud cover, but GFS and ECMWF models disagree on whether we`ll
actually see precipitation with the trof, so have kept just a slight
chance for showers from around Harlem to Dillon on Mon aftn/eve.
Tuesday and most of Wednesday looking dry at all locations as weak
high pressure ridging tracks through the state. By Wed night, the
next shortwave trof reaches central WA/OR and pushes a sharp cold
front east of the Continental Divide.  Widespread showers are
expected along/ahead of the front early Thurs morning and then
additional rainfall develops with the passage of the trof axis Thurs
night.  Current model runs are indicating rainfall amounts of a
tenth to one-half inch from the nighttime precipitation.
Temperatures remaining cooler than normal through the period.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  79  54  72 /  20  10  20  40
CTB  47  77  53  70 /  50  10  10  20
HLN  53  83  54  73 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  48  81  49  68 /  30  10  30  50
WEY  40  69  41  62 /  30  20  30  50
DLN  49  81  50  68 /  30  10  40  50
HVR  51  77  55  76 /  40  10  10  30
LWT  52  74  53  69 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls











000
FXUS65 KTFX 290449
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper trof and surface cold front will continue
to move across the area overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move along the Hi-Line for the next several
hours. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms also continues
to move across southwest Montana. Precipitation will continues to
move east overnight and will be mainly over eastern Montana by
daybreak. A few lingering morning showers over eastern Montana will
end by midday as shortwave ridging develops over the area.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 12z. The main problem tonight will be dealing with
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Confidence in ceiling forecasts over the plains
is low as some guidance has these lower ceilings while other
guidance keeps conditions VFR. Be aware that there could be local
MVFR/IFR visibilities as well. What low clouds there are early
Friday morning should dissipate between 15z-18z Friday. Friday
afternoon and evening expect clear skies to scattered clouds with
isolated thunderstorms possible south of a KBZN-KDLN line. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight through Saturday...Upper level disturbance and associated
surface cold front will push through North Central Montana
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over much of the forecast area this evening, but eastern
slopes of Glacier National Park should see a widespread light
rain. The remnants of the system will move east overnight through
Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft developing by
afternoon. Friday`s high temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Thursday with partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm in far Southwest Montana by late afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight and will spread into
Central Montana by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop in Southwest and eastern portions of
Central Montana for much of Saturday but only isolated showers are
expected over western portions of Central Montana. Temperatures
will continue to cool back toward seasonal averages. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...This period begins with scattered
showers behind the cold front lingering mainly over the southwest
counties and over toward Lewistown.  Slightly unstable conditions,
coupled with northwest flow aloft and residual moisture will also
produce isolated showers on Sunday along the Rocky Mtn Front and
over the southwest mountain ranges. A weak shortwave trof will move
quickly through our forecast area on Mon, bringing a fair amount of
cloud cover, but GFS and ECMWF models disagree on whether we`ll
actually see precipitation with the trof, so have kept just a slight
chance for showers from around Harlem to Dillon on Mon aftn/eve.
Tuesday and most of Wednesday looking dry at all locations as weak
high pressure ridging tracks through the state. By Wed night, the
next shortwave trof reaches central WA/OR and pushes a sharp cold
front east of the Continental Divide.  Widespread showers are
expected along/ahead of the front early Thurs morning and then
additional rainfall develops with the passage of the trof axis Thurs
night.  Current model runs are indicating rainfall amounts of a
tenth to one-half inch from the nighttime precipitation.
Temperatures remaining cooler than normal through the period.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  79  54  72 /  20  10  20  40
CTB  47  77  53  70 /  50  10  10  20
HLN  53  83  54  73 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  48  81  49  68 /  30  10  30  50
WEY  40  69  41  62 /  30  20  30  50
DLN  49  81  50  68 /  30  10  40  50
HVR  51  77  55  76 /  40  10  10  30
LWT  52  74  53  69 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 290314
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper trof and surface cold front will continue
to move across the area overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move along the Hi-Line for the next several
hours. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms also continues
to move across southwest Montana. Precipitation will continues to
move east overnight and will be mainly over eastern Montana by
daybreak. A few lingering morning showers over eastern Montana will
end by midday as shortwave ridging develops over the area.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 06z. Also a cold front will be moving south with
northerly winds developing. The wind shift at KGTF might be an hour
or two too fast. Near and after midnight expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to
spread south over the plains. There could be local MVFR/IFR
visibilities as well. The low clouds should dissipate between
15z-18z Friday. Friday afternoon expect clear skies to scattered
clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible south of KBZN-KDLN line.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight through Saturday...Upper level disturbance and associated
surface cold front will push through North Central Montana
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over much of the forecast area this evening, but eastern
slopes of Glacier National Park should see a widespread light
rain. The remnants of the system will move east overnight through
Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft developing by
afternoon. Friday`s high temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Thursday with partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm in far Southwest Montana by late afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight and will spread into
Central Montana by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop in Southwest and eastern portions of
Central Montana for much of Saturday but only isolated showers are
expected over western portions of Central Montana. Temperatures
will continue to cool back toward seasonal averages. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...This period begins with scattered
showers behind the cold front lingering mainly over the southwest
counties and over toward Lewistown.  Slightly unstable conditions,
coupled with northwest flow aloft and residual moisture will also
produce isolated showers on Sunday along the Rocky Mtn Front and
over the southwest mountain ranges. A weak shortwave trof will move
quickly through our forecast area on Mon, bringing a fair amount of
cloud cover, but GFS and ECMWF models disagree on whether we`ll
actually see precipitation with the trof, so have kept just a slight
chance for showers from around Harlem to Dillon on Mon aftn/eve.
Tuesday and most of Wednesday looking dry at all locations as weak
high pressure ridging tracks through the state. By Wed night, the
next shortwave trof reaches central WA/OR and pushes a sharp cold
front east of the Continental Divide.  Widespread showers are
expected along/ahead of the front early Thurs morning and then
additional rainfall develops with the passage of the trof axis Thurs
night.  Current model runs are indicating rainfall amounts of a
tenth to one-half inch from the nighttime precipitation.
Temperatures remaining cooler than normal through the period.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  79  54  72 /  20  10  20  40
CTB  47  77  53  70 /  50  10  10  20
HLN  53  83  54  73 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  48  81  49  68 /  30  10  30  50
WEY  40  69  41  62 /  30  20  30  50
DLN  49  81  50  68 /  30  10  40  50
HVR  51  77  55  76 /  40  10  10  30
LWT  52  74  53  69 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290314
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper trof and surface cold front will continue
to move across the area overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move along the Hi-Line for the next several
hours. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms also continues
to move across southwest Montana. Precipitation will continues to
move east overnight and will be mainly over eastern Montana by
daybreak. A few lingering morning showers over eastern Montana will
end by midday as shortwave ridging develops over the area.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 06z. Also a cold front will be moving south with
northerly winds developing. The wind shift at KGTF might be an hour
or two too fast. Near and after midnight expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to
spread south over the plains. There could be local MVFR/IFR
visibilities as well. The low clouds should dissipate between
15z-18z Friday. Friday afternoon expect clear skies to scattered
clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible south of KBZN-KDLN line.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight through Saturday...Upper level disturbance and associated
surface cold front will push through North Central Montana
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over much of the forecast area this evening, but eastern
slopes of Glacier National Park should see a widespread light
rain. The remnants of the system will move east overnight through
Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft developing by
afternoon. Friday`s high temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Thursday with partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm in far Southwest Montana by late afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight and will spread into
Central Montana by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop in Southwest and eastern portions of
Central Montana for much of Saturday but only isolated showers are
expected over western portions of Central Montana. Temperatures
will continue to cool back toward seasonal averages. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...This period begins with scattered
showers behind the cold front lingering mainly over the southwest
counties and over toward Lewistown.  Slightly unstable conditions,
coupled with northwest flow aloft and residual moisture will also
produce isolated showers on Sunday along the Rocky Mtn Front and
over the southwest mountain ranges. A weak shortwave trof will move
quickly through our forecast area on Mon, bringing a fair amount of
cloud cover, but GFS and ECMWF models disagree on whether we`ll
actually see precipitation with the trof, so have kept just a slight
chance for showers from around Harlem to Dillon on Mon aftn/eve.
Tuesday and most of Wednesday looking dry at all locations as weak
high pressure ridging tracks through the state. By Wed night, the
next shortwave trof reaches central WA/OR and pushes a sharp cold
front east of the Continental Divide.  Widespread showers are
expected along/ahead of the front early Thurs morning and then
additional rainfall develops with the passage of the trof axis Thurs
night.  Current model runs are indicating rainfall amounts of a
tenth to one-half inch from the nighttime precipitation.
Temperatures remaining cooler than normal through the period.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  79  54  72 /  20  10  20  40
CTB  47  77  53  70 /  50  10  10  20
HLN  53  83  54  73 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  48  81  49  68 /  30  10  30  50
WEY  40  69  41  62 /  30  20  30  50
DLN  49  81  50  68 /  30  10  40  50
HVR  51  77  55  76 /  40  10  10  30
LWT  52  74  53  69 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290314
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper trof and surface cold front will continue
to move across the area overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move along the Hi-Line for the next several
hours. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms also continues
to move across southwest Montana. Precipitation will continues to
move east overnight and will be mainly over eastern Montana by
daybreak. A few lingering morning showers over eastern Montana will
end by midday as shortwave ridging develops over the area.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 06z. Also a cold front will be moving south with
northerly winds developing. The wind shift at KGTF might be an hour
or two too fast. Near and after midnight expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to
spread south over the plains. There could be local MVFR/IFR
visibilities as well. The low clouds should dissipate between
15z-18z Friday. Friday afternoon expect clear skies to scattered
clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible south of KBZN-KDLN line.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight through Saturday...Upper level disturbance and associated
surface cold front will push through North Central Montana
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over much of the forecast area this evening, but eastern
slopes of Glacier National Park should see a widespread light
rain. The remnants of the system will move east overnight through
Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft developing by
afternoon. Friday`s high temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Thursday with partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm in far Southwest Montana by late afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight and will spread into
Central Montana by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop in Southwest and eastern portions of
Central Montana for much of Saturday but only isolated showers are
expected over western portions of Central Montana. Temperatures
will continue to cool back toward seasonal averages. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...This period begins with scattered
showers behind the cold front lingering mainly over the southwest
counties and over toward Lewistown.  Slightly unstable conditions,
coupled with northwest flow aloft and residual moisture will also
produce isolated showers on Sunday along the Rocky Mtn Front and
over the southwest mountain ranges. A weak shortwave trof will move
quickly through our forecast area on Mon, bringing a fair amount of
cloud cover, but GFS and ECMWF models disagree on whether we`ll
actually see precipitation with the trof, so have kept just a slight
chance for showers from around Harlem to Dillon on Mon aftn/eve.
Tuesday and most of Wednesday looking dry at all locations as weak
high pressure ridging tracks through the state. By Wed night, the
next shortwave trof reaches central WA/OR and pushes a sharp cold
front east of the Continental Divide.  Widespread showers are
expected along/ahead of the front early Thurs morning and then
additional rainfall develops with the passage of the trof axis Thurs
night.  Current model runs are indicating rainfall amounts of a
tenth to one-half inch from the nighttime precipitation.
Temperatures remaining cooler than normal through the period.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  79  54  72 /  20  10  20  40
CTB  47  77  53  70 /  50  10  10  20
HLN  53  83  54  73 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  48  81  49  68 /  30  10  30  50
WEY  40  69  41  62 /  30  20  30  50
DLN  49  81  50  68 /  30  10  40  50
HVR  51  77  55  76 /  40  10  10  30
LWT  52  74  53  69 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 290314
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Upper trof and surface cold front will continue
to move across the area overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move along the Hi-Line for the next several
hours. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms also continues
to move across southwest Montana. Precipitation will continues to
move east overnight and will be mainly over eastern Montana by
daybreak. A few lingering morning showers over eastern Montana will
end by midday as shortwave ridging develops over the area.
Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 06z. Also a cold front will be moving south with
northerly winds developing. The wind shift at KGTF might be an hour
or two too fast. Near and after midnight expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to
spread south over the plains. There could be local MVFR/IFR
visibilities as well. The low clouds should dissipate between
15z-18z Friday. Friday afternoon expect clear skies to scattered
clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible south of KBZN-KDLN line.
Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Tonight through Saturday...Upper level disturbance and associated
surface cold front will push through North Central Montana
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over much of the forecast area this evening, but eastern
slopes of Glacier National Park should see a widespread light
rain. The remnants of the system will move east overnight through
Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft developing by
afternoon. Friday`s high temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Thursday with partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm in far Southwest Montana by late afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight and will spread into
Central Montana by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop in Southwest and eastern portions of
Central Montana for much of Saturday but only isolated showers are
expected over western portions of Central Montana. Temperatures
will continue to cool back toward seasonal averages. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...This period begins with scattered
showers behind the cold front lingering mainly over the southwest
counties and over toward Lewistown.  Slightly unstable conditions,
coupled with northwest flow aloft and residual moisture will also
produce isolated showers on Sunday along the Rocky Mtn Front and
over the southwest mountain ranges. A weak shortwave trof will move
quickly through our forecast area on Mon, bringing a fair amount of
cloud cover, but GFS and ECMWF models disagree on whether we`ll
actually see precipitation with the trof, so have kept just a slight
chance for showers from around Harlem to Dillon on Mon aftn/eve.
Tuesday and most of Wednesday looking dry at all locations as weak
high pressure ridging tracks through the state. By Wed night, the
next shortwave trof reaches central WA/OR and pushes a sharp cold
front east of the Continental Divide.  Widespread showers are
expected along/ahead of the front early Thurs morning and then
additional rainfall develops with the passage of the trof axis Thurs
night.  Current model runs are indicating rainfall amounts of a
tenth to one-half inch from the nighttime precipitation.
Temperatures remaining cooler than normal through the period.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  79  54  72 /  20  10  20  40
CTB  47  77  53  70 /  50  10  10  20
HLN  53  83  54  73 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  48  81  49  68 /  30  10  30  50
WEY  40  69  41  62 /  30  20  30  50
DLN  49  81  50  68 /  30  10  40  50
HVR  51  77  55  76 /  40  10  10  30
LWT  52  74  53  69 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290308
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON TRACK THOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
FAVOR OUTFLOW WINDS RATHER THAN RAIN HITTING THROUGH GROUND AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST TO INDICATE MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF I94 FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WAS HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CHANGE WILL BE COURTESY OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND TURN THE WEATHER PATTERN COOLER AND UNSETTLED. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOOT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THIS
EVENING AND GENERATE LIFT TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING
THE NSSL WRF...WERE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEST BY MID EVENING AND SPREADING IT INTO BILLINGS BY LATE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS TONIGHT FOR THIS. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT
THE MOMENT...JUST A FEW CU TO THE WEST...BUT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN PLACE AND STICK WITH A LATER DEVELOPMENT IDEA.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. DID
LINGER LOW POPS IN THE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DRYING TREND
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 70S FRIDAY...ALONG WITH PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS A SMALL
SCALE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.

THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE IN SATURDAY WITH A COUPLED JET
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS PROVIDES
STRONG FORCING WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE RAISED POPS AS
QPF HAS COME IN QUIET WET FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH
UP A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST
ZONES EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR STRONG CAPE OVER FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES BUT
MODELS PROGG CAPES REACHING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH INCREASING
SHEAR. SPC HAS FALLON COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK. COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG STORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
FRONT SWEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPES EAST. REINFORCING ENERGY MOVES IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THUS EXTENDED SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GFS MODEL WAS WET FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND ALONG
WITH BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL ROUND OUT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES SUN INTO MON AS
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OFFER THE SLIGHTLY GREATER
/ALBEIT STILL RELATIVELY LOW/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN
THOSE TWO DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW INDUCED BY THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY ZONAL LOOK NEXT
WEEK THOUGH AND A WARMING TREND WILL THUS FOLLOW AS THERMAL FIELDS
RECOVER UNDER RISING HEIGHTS TUE AND WED. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER OFF
SUN VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S BACK TO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS BY
BY WED.

BY NEXT THU...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES AS THE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN OFFERING SOME MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING THAT
500-MB HEIGHTS MAY TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IN RESPECT TO THAT POTENTIAL WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING OUR MODEST CONFIDENCE IN ITS DETAILS...WE ONCE AGAIN
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A BIT COOLER HIGHS
/WHICH WERE DRIVEN BY THE MEAN OF WIDE-RANGING GUIDANCE VALUES/ IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT THU. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY E OF KBIL AFTER 12Z FRI. EXPECT AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS...BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIG
HORNS. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA ON FRI. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/078 057/075 052/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    42/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 051/079 052/072 045/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    42/W    16/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 058/080 057/078 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    32/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 060/078 059/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    34/W    03/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 059/080 058/085 053/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    13/T    04/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
BHK 057/076 056/079 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    25/T    14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
SHR 055/079 054/080 052/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    22/W    04/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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