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000
FXUS65 KMSO 251045
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
444 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds will once again increase over the Northern Rockies today,
ahead of a vigorous Pacific storm system. Patchy valley fog this
morning will likely burn off shortly after sunrise, giving way to
a very warm late October day. Winds will become quite gusty this
afternoon, particularly for high terrain and the Camas Prairie of
Idaho, where gusts may exceed 50 mph at times. Elsewhere,
southerly breezes will help to push temperatures into the 60s.

A surface cold front will sweep across the Northern Rockies very
late this evening through midday Sunday. An unstable environment
ahead of the front will allow nocturnal thunderstorms to develop,
mainly over central Idaho and along the Montana/Idaho border from
Lookout Pass southward. The frontal passage is likely to be
accompanied by erratic wind gusts and some brief heavy
precipitation. Snow levels will decrease quickly following the
front, allow a short burst of snowfall over area mountain passes.
There is a possibility of some snow sticking to the road surface
over the passes, creating periods of hazardous driving conditions.

Following a short respite from precipitation from around midday
Monday through Monday evening, yet another storm system is
anticipated to arrive over the Northern Rockies. Another round of
wind and precipitation similar to the weekend system is likely to
be replayed. Prepare for gusty winds and snow down to mountain
passes at the very least.

Long-term weather models basically agree Thursday through Saturday,
depicting active weather along the Pacific Northwest coast and
high pressure over the Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft over the
Northern Rockies during this time will likely promote very warm
late October temperatures. All models eventually depict another
vigorous storm system traversing the Northern Rockies over the
latter half of next weekend, however the timing of the next storm
system feature is fairly unclear. Climatology is reflected in the
present probability of precipitation forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of patchy fog and low stratus clouds will be
possible at all area terminals this morning but primarily at KMSO
and KSMN. Any fog that develops should clear by mid morning.
Breezy winds are expected in the afternoon with the strongest wind
gusts at KBTM. The next weather system will start approaching the
area tonight with lower ceilings and mountain obscurations
expected on Sunday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

Zumpfe
Aviation...Kino

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 251045
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
444 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds will once again increase over the Northern Rockies today,
ahead of a vigorous Pacific storm system. Patchy valley fog this
morning will likely burn off shortly after sunrise, giving way to
a very warm late October day. Winds will become quite gusty this
afternoon, particularly for high terrain and the Camas Prairie of
Idaho, where gusts may exceed 50 mph at times. Elsewhere,
southerly breezes will help to push temperatures into the 60s.

A surface cold front will sweep across the Northern Rockies very
late this evening through midday Sunday. An unstable environment
ahead of the front will allow nocturnal thunderstorms to develop,
mainly over central Idaho and along the Montana/Idaho border from
Lookout Pass southward. The frontal passage is likely to be
accompanied by erratic wind gusts and some brief heavy
precipitation. Snow levels will decrease quickly following the
front, allow a short burst of snowfall over area mountain passes.
There is a possibility of some snow sticking to the road surface
over the passes, creating periods of hazardous driving conditions.

Following a short respite from precipitation from around midday
Monday through Monday evening, yet another storm system is
anticipated to arrive over the Northern Rockies. Another round of
wind and precipitation similar to the weekend system is likely to
be replayed. Prepare for gusty winds and snow down to mountain
passes at the very least.

Long-term weather models basically agree Thursday through Saturday,
depicting active weather along the Pacific Northwest coast and
high pressure over the Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft over the
Northern Rockies during this time will likely promote very warm
late October temperatures. All models eventually depict another
vigorous storm system traversing the Northern Rockies over the
latter half of next weekend, however the timing of the next storm
system feature is fairly unclear. Climatology is reflected in the
present probability of precipitation forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of patchy fog and low stratus clouds will be
possible at all area terminals this morning but primarily at KMSO
and KSMN. Any fog that develops should clear by mid morning.
Breezy winds are expected in the afternoon with the strongest wind
gusts at KBTM. The next weather system will start approaching the
area tonight with lower ceilings and mountain obscurations
expected on Sunday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

Zumpfe
Aviation...Kino

$$




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000
FXUS65 KTFX 251006
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
406 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...An upper ridge moving into western Montana
this morning will shift to near the eastern Montana border by late
this afternoon. A Pacific upper trough is expected to move into
western Montana Sunday afternoon then into eastern Montana Sunday
night. Northwest flow aloft will be over the area Monday. As for
weather..with clear skies and light winds and small temperature-
dewpoint spreads will mention patchy fog over the southwest
valleys for early this morning. Otherwise for the rest of the day
expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and no precipitation. That
changes beginning tonight as moisture increases ahead of the upper
trough. The associated cold front will move through western
Montana tonight and into central Montana by early Sunday morning.
Showers will develop over the western mountains this evening then
spread to southwest Montana late tonight as snow levels fall to
between 7000 and 7500 feet by morning. More precipitation is
expected over the western and southwest mountains Sunday as snow
levels continue to fall. Precipitation should diminish over
southwest Montana Sunday night as snow levels lower to between
4000 and 4500 feet. As for the plains gusty downslope winds will
limit precipitation chances on Sunday. That changes Sunday night
as northwest flow brings some moisture down from Canada. Rain
showers will turn to mostly snow showers after midnight. Looking
at the forecast area as a whole snow amounts should be less than
an inch for the plains and valleys while mountains could see
several inches.

High wind situation...A watch has been issued for the Rocky
Mountain Front and eastern Glacier County for tonight through
Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will increase tonight. Unlike the
most recent wind event..conditions look more favorable for high
winds. However there continues be some uncertainty with regard to
the ingredients for high winds so have elected to go the watch
route for now.

Thunderstorms...The airmass could become unstable Sunday afternoon
associated with the upper trough. However am not sure it will be
unstable enough for thunderstorms. It does look like there will be
enough of a threat over far southwest Montana to include its
mention in the forecast. Blank

Monday Night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region into Monday.
With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances appear to be
mostly limited to the West and Southwest MT mountains. The system
exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly moving over
the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops Wednesday
and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass over Montana
Wednesday. High pressure begins to build over the region Thursday as
a low pressure system off the west coast deepens. Warm southwesterly
flow returns to the region by the end of the week. Temperatures
remain cool into Tuesday before warming into the 60s later in the
week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the plains
remain fairly low throughout the period.



&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Scattered showers
will continue to push north across the area over the next few hours.
Some rain is possible over the TAF sites, have not seen a drop in
flight categories with the showers though, and precipitation appears
to be less than 0.05 with the heaviest showers. Clearing is
occurring behind the showers according to satellite images and radar
returns. Winds will continue to remain relatively light overnight
with some afternoon increases possible. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  45  52  34 /   0  10  10  40
CTB  59  41  51  28 /   0  10  20  60
HLN  71  43  55  36 /   0  10  20  20
BZN  70  36  54  27 /   0  20  50  20
WEY  60  28  41  20 /   0  30  60  50
DLN  69  39  50  28 /   0  20  40  20
HVR  64  40  58  34 /   0  10  10  70
LWT  71  43  56  34 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
Eastern Glacier.

HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Sunday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250910
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
310 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A NICE COMMA HEAD DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER ALONG
130W.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN SW TONIGHT AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AS WELL. AIRMASS WILL BE DRY TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORTED LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS FOR TODAY BASED ON
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUN AND MOVE E THROUGH
THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. SOME JET
DIVERGENCE WAS FORECAST OVER THE AREA ON SUN AS WELL...AS JET
ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUN MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPS THE
REST OF THE AREA DRY. TRIMMED BACK THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF POPS
BASED ON THE DOWNSLOPING. MORE MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD POPS...BUT DOWNSLOPE WILL
STILL INHIBIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. REDUCED POPS A LITTLE
OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND RAISED THEM OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS.
TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWED DEEP INSTABILITY SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND
BUFKIT SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AND FLOW TURNS NW AFTER 06Z MON. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SCATTERED POPS OVER LOW ELEVATIONS AND HIGHER POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. 700 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW ZERO DEGREES C OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING SUN. EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

GOOD MIXING ON SUN COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. WARMED UP SUN A LITTLE DUE TO THE GOOD
MIXING...BUT IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND THIS
LEADS TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...DESPITE THE FAST FLOW
PATTERN. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA AND
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT DOWN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WORK WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ON
MONDAY. MODELS WERE CONSISTENTLY HITTING THE EAST HARDER WITH THE
WAVE...AS THIS AREA WAS CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND THUS
MORE UNSTABLE. WILL PLACE HIGHER POPS EAST OF BILLINGS.

THE NEXT WAVE TO DRIFT THROUGH WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WAS VERY DISORGANIZED WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE LIFT CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH THIS WAVE AND ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL LIFT...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS AND HIT SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THE
HARDEST. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
FROM HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE OTHER THING TO HIGHLIGHT WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE WINDY
PERIODS EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAVORED SOUTHWEST VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP OVER CENTRAL ZONES.
BUMPED WINDS UP FOR ALL THESE PERIODS AND LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A
WARM UP KICKS IN FOR MID WEEK. THE MAIN WARM UP WILL BE LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT KLVM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS.
TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070 048/066 038/052 031/055 037/059 035/059 034/063
    0/U 02/T    33/W    11/B    23/W    10/B    00/B
LVM 070 043/059 034/046 029/051 034/054 034/057 032/059
    0/N 13/T    33/W    11/N    34/W    10/B    00/B
HDN 072 047/070 035/053 030/056 033/060 033/060 032/064
    0/U 02/T    33/W    11/B    22/W    10/B    00/B
MLS 071 047/067 037/050 029/054 033/059 031/057 030/060
    0/U 02/T    23/W    10/U    11/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 073 048/069 037/050 029/054 032/059 033/057 033/063
    0/U 02/T    43/W    10/U    11/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 067 045/068 034/046 027/048 029/056 029/052 029/058
    0/U 02/T    33/W    10/U    11/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 073 050/069 030/050 028/054 029/059 029/060 030/062
    0/U 02/T    44/W    11/U    22/W    10/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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000
FXUS65 KGGW 250858
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
MONTANA TODAY. WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FIRST OF 2 COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN...WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. GOOD SURFACE MIXING
WILL COMPENSATE MOST OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SO THAT SUNDAY WILL
BE NEARLY OR EQUALLY WARM AS TODAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY COMBINE WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN THE SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
TO NORTHEAST MONTANA BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COLD ENOUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY MORNING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2 TO -3C ON MONDAY WHICH IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER... GOOD MIXING WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FAR ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS AND MODELS
KEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WARMER THAN -10C FOR THE MOST PART WHICH
LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF ICE CRYSTALS NECESSARY FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS EITHER RAIN MIXED SNOW OR ALL RAIN IN
MOST AREAS. WILL MAKE AN EXCEPTION FOR A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS LIKE OPHEIM AND ZORTMAN THAT ARE PRONE TO RECEIVING ALL SNOW
IN THIS SCENARIO. LOOK FOR A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY.  FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY
OUT OF OUR CWA...LEAVING A FEW TRAILING AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ARE BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOWFALL...BUT SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH AND MAY BE MORE INDICATIVE OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX. ALTHOUGH
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT
SNOW COULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY. AS THE GROUND HAS NOT HAD A
CHANCE TO FREE AND STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. MAYBE A TRACE TO LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
WILL LIKELY ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THAW AGAIN AND PRECIP TO
BE DRIVEN AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THIS SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY AND LEAST CONFIDENCE.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN EMBEDDED SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT MAINLY IN SOME CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL
NOT VERY BULLISH ON MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
DIRECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...WITH PERIODS OF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OR CALM THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN BELOW 10 MPH BY SUNSET. BLM


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 250450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.UPDATE...Westerly flow aloft will continue to bring a moist
Pacific airmass over Central Montana overnight. A band of
precipitation currently stretches from Washington state to the
Continental Divide with scattered showers occasionally moving off
the mountains into Central Montana. Models continue to show that a
building upper level ridge will push this band northward through
the night. Have updated forecast to increase pops to chance
category in my central and northern zones overnight. However, any
showers that move through this area will likely be light with only
one or two hundredths of an inch expected. Remainder of the
forecast is in good shape and no other changes were made. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Scattered showers
will continue to push north across the area over the next few hours.
Some rain is possible over the TAF sites, have not seen a drop in
flight categories with the showers though, and precipitation appears
to be less than 0.05 with the heaviest showers. Clearing is
occurring behind the showers according to satellite images and radar
returns. Winds will continue to remain relatively light overnight
with some afternoon increases possible. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014/
Tonight thru Monday...A rather unsettled weather pattern will reside
over the region for the next few days. A warm front continues to
slowly push northward through the region. Light rain showers and
high elevation snow showers are falling along the front.
Precipitation amounts are quite light though. Expect the
precipitation to slowly shift northward tonight into North Central
MT. However...most areas will just see a passing shower/sprinkle.
For Saturday...warmer air will move into the region for just one
day. Expect mostly dry conditions along with mild temperatures. By
late Saturday night...the next Pacific cold front will be
approaching the region. This cold front will have better dynamics
with the frontal passage...thus gusty winds and a better chance
for precipitation is expected over portions of the region. Cooler
air will move into all areas on Sunday...with afternoon highs
about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday. The best chance for
precip on Sunday will be over the Rocky Mountain Front and in
Southwest MT. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible in
the mountains...mainly above 6000 feet. For Sunday night...the
upper level trof will be moving through North Central MT. As a
result...the best chance for precip Sunday night and Monday will
shift northward into the Havre area. Enough cold air is expected
to move into the region by Monday morning...that a rain/snow mix
or all snow will be possible at all elevations of North Central
MT. Snow accumulations on Monday morning will generally be less
than 1/2 inch at lower elevations...but that snowfall might be
just enough to create a few slippery spots...especially on bridges
and higher elevation mountain passes. Temperatures will remain
well below normal for Monday afternoon.

In terms of highlights...no winter weather highlights are planned
for at this time...but should snow accumulations increase a
bit...some winter weather highlights might be needed. There is also
a small potential for strong winds Saturday night into Sunday over
the Northern Rockies and the Cut Bank area. Right now I have kept
wind speeds below warning criteria...but this will continue to be
monitored closely as well. Brusda

Tuesday through Friday...The upper level system exits Tuesday
with weak transient high pressure briefly moving over the region.
A generally unsettled westerly flow develops Wednesday and several
disturbances embedded in the flow will pass over Montana
Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast will bring
warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the week.
Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later in
the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period...but a period of
heavier precipitation is possible Wednesday over the Rocky
Mountain Front. EG/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  68  45  53 /  40   0  10  20
CTB  37  60  41  52 /  30   0  10  20
HLN  39  70  43  55 /  40   0  10  30
BZN  33  70  37  54 /  20   0  10  40
WEY  28  60  28  41 /   0   0  20  60
DLN  38  69  40  50 /  10   0  20  40
HVR  38  63  40  59 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  39  69  43  57 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 250255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...Westerly flow aloft will continue to bring a moist
Pacific airmass over Central Montana overnight. A band of
precipitation currently stretches from Washington state to the
Continental Divide with scattered showers occasionally moving off
the mountains into Central Montana. Models continue to show that a
building upper level ridge will push this band northward through
the night. Have updated forecast to increase pops to chance
category in my central and northern zones overnight. However, any
showers that move through this area will likely be light with only
one or two hundredths of an inch expected. Remainder of the
forecast is in good shape and no other changes were made. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Widespread mid-level
ceilings will persist next several hours as west-southwest flow
aloft pushes broad Pacific moisture plume across the region. Current
satellite imagery already indicating southern boundary of the plume
over central Idaho has begun to gradually lift northward as high
pressure ridging over the Great Basin continues to strengthen.  Will
see steadily decreasing cloud cover from south-to-north through the
overnight hours.  Breezy winds will begin to decrease this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014/
Tonight thru Monday...A rather unsettled weather pattern will reside
over the region for the next few days. A warm front continues to
slowly push northward through the region. Light rain showers and
high elevation snow showers are falling along the front.
Precipitation amounts are quite light though. Expect the
precipitation to slowly shift northward tonight into North Central
MT. However...most areas will just see a passing shower/sprinkle.
For Saturday...warmer air will move into the region for just one
day. Expect mostly dry conditions along with mild temperatures. By
late Saturday night...the next Pacific cold front will be
approaching the region. This cold front will have better dynamics
with the frontal passage...thus gusty winds and a better chance
for precipitation is expected over portions of the region. Cooler
air will move into all areas on Sunday...with afternoon highs
about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday. The best chance for
precip on Sunday will be over the Rocky Mountain Front and in
Southwest MT. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible in
the mountains...mainly above 6000 feet. For Sunday night...the
upper level trof will be moving through North Central MT. As a
result...the best chance for precip Sunday night and Monday will
shift northward into the Havre area. Enough cold air is expected
to move into the region by Monday morning...that a rain/snow mix
or all snow will be possible at all elevations of North Central
MT. Snow accumulations on Monday morning will generally be less
than 1/2 inch at lower elevations...but that snowfall might be
just enough to create a few slippery spots...especially on bridges
and higher elevation mountain passes. Temperatures will remain
well below normal for Monday afternoon.

In terms of highlights...no winter weather highlights are planned
for at this time...but should snow accumulations increase a
bit...some winter weather highlights might be needed. There is also
a small potential for strong winds Saturday night into Sunday over
the Northern Rockies and the Cut Bank area. Right now I have kept
wind speeds below warning criteria...but this will continue to be
monitored closely as well. Brusda

Tuesday through Friday...The upper level system exits Tuesday
with weak transient high pressure briefly moving over the region.
A generally unsettled westerly flow develops Wednesday and several
disturbances embedded in the flow will pass over Montana
Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast will bring
warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the week.
Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later in
the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period...but a period of
heavier precipitation is possible Wednesday over the Rocky
Mountain Front. EG/Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  68  45  53 /  40   0  10  20
CTB  37  60  41  52 /  30   0  10  20
HLN  39  70  43  55 /  40   0  10  30
BZN  33  70  37  54 /  20   0  10  40
WEY  28  60  28  41 /   0   0  20  60
DLN  38  69  40  50 /  10   0  20  40
HVR  38  63  40  59 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  39  69  43  57 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250201
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
801 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LIVINGSTON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED NORTH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN
TO THE EVENING HOURS SO ADDED ISOLATED POPS BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE
FAST MOVING AND PRODUCING LITTLE MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD WHICH BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ALLOWS SOME
PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA TO BRING A FAVORABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR MIXING. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 70 DEGREE TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUN AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SUCH A WARM FALL DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE 13TH 70 DEGREE DAY OF OCTOBER 2014 AFTER 2013 HAVING
NO 70 DEGREE DAYS IN OCTOBER.

PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT TO KEEP MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ACCELERATING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LINE UP WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TO BRING INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BUT A COUPLE OF
FACTORS MAY BE LIMITING STRENGTH OF WINDS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WILL BE GIVEN SOME WEAK LIFT APPROACHING
THE AREA AND ALSO NOT SURE IF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WIL BE FAVORABLE GIVEN HOW FAR INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA
IT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND. DID RAISE WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE LIVINGSTON AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA EARLY SUNDAY AND
WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE A
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA BUT WIND SHIFT MAY NOT BE ALL
THAT NOTICEABLE AS THE FRONT JUMPS INTO THE PREEXISTING LEESIDE
TROUGH. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR A FALL FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT DRAMATIC. TIMING OF THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR DAY BREAK FOR WESTERN AREAS AND AROUND NOON
FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME DAYTIME
HEATING SUNDAY.

MODELS HINT AT FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER AS THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WRF SHOWS THIS AS HAVING A CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT WHICH MAY BE OVER DOING THE DEVELOPMENTAL ASPECT OF THIS
FEATURE GIVEN THAT THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT DEEP.
WILL DEFINITELY BE A COOLER NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING LATE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AS AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND EXITING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES...MAINLY FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT
ON WEDNESDAY AS BY MORE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
COAST. STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING SOME
WEAK Q VECTOR FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER MONTANA. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WIND REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041/070 047/062 037/052 031/055 037/059 035/058 034/061
    00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    13/W    21/B    10/B
LVM 039/069 041/055 032/046 029/051 034/054 034/055 032/054
    10/N    13/W    33/W    11/B    23/W    22/W    10/B
HDN 037/073 039/065 035/053 030/056 033/060 033/058 032/062
    00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    12/W    21/B    10/B
MLS 038/070 041/066 037/050 029/054 033/059 031/055 030/059
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    11/B    10/B
4BQ 038/071 043/068 037/050 029/054 032/059 033/056 033/062
    00/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W    11/B    10/B
BHK 034/065 038/067 036/046 027/048 029/056 029/051 029/059
    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    11/B    10/B
SHR 037/073 041/067 032/050 028/054 029/059 029/057 030/058
    00/U    02/W    44/W    11/U    12/W    22/W    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 242351
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight thru Monday...A rather unsettled weather pattern will reside
over the region for the next few days. A warm front continues to
slowly push northward through the region. Light rain showers and
high elevation snow showers are falling along the front.
Precipitation amounts are quite light though. Expect the
precipitation to slowly shift northward tonight into North Central
MT. However...most areas will just see a passing shower/sprinkle.
For Saturday...warmer air will move into the region for just one
day. Expect mostly dry conditions along with mild temperatures. By
late Saturday night...the next Pacific cold front will be
approaching the region. This cold front will have better dynamics
with the frontal passage...thus gusty winds and a better chance
for precipitation is expected over portions of the region. Cooler
air will move into all areas on Sunday...with afternoon highs
about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday. The best chance for
precip on Sunday will be over the Rocky Mountain Front and in
Southwest MT. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible in
the mountains...mainly above 6000 feet. For Sunday night...the
upper level trof will be moving through North Central MT. As a
result...the best chance for precip Sunday night and Monday will
shift northward into the Havre area. Enough cold air is expected
to move into the region by Monday morning...that a rain/snow mix
or all snow will be possible at all elevations of North Central
MT. Snow accumulations on Monday morning will generally be less
than 1/2 inch at lower elevations...but that snowfall might be
just enough to create a few slippery spots...especially on bridges
and higher elevation mountain passes. Temperatures will remain
well below normal for Monday afternoon.

In terms of highlights...no winter weather highlights are planned
for at this time...but should snow accumulations increase a
bit...some winter weather highlights might be needed. There is also
a small potential for strong winds Saturday night into Sunday over
the Northern Rockies and the Cut Bank area. Right now I have kept
wind speeds below warning criteria...but this will continue to be
monitored closely as well. Brusda

Tuesday through Friday...The upper level system exits Tuesday
with weak transient high pressure briefly moving over the region.
A generally unsettled westerly flow develops Wednesday and several
disturbances embedded in the flow will pass over Montana
Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast will bring
warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the week.
Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later in
the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period...but a period of
heavier precipitation is possible Wednesday over the Rocky
Mountain Front. EG/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Widespread mid-level
ceilings will persist next several hours as west-southwest flow
aloft pushes broad Pacific moisture plume across the region. Current
satellite imagery already indicating southern boundary of the plume
over central Idaho has begun to gradually lift northward as high
pressure ridging over the Great Basin continues to strengthen.  Will
see steadily decreasing cloud cover from south-to-north through the
overnight hours.  Breezy winds will begin to decrease this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  68  45  53 /  20   0  10  20
CTB  37  60  41  52 /  20   0  10  20
HLN  39  70  43  55 /  20   0  10  30
BZN  33  70  37  54 /  20   0  10  40
WEY  28  60  28  41 /  10   0  20  60
DLN  38  69  40  50 /  10   0  20  40
HVR  38  63  40  59 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  39  69  43  57 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KMSO 242102
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
301 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...Cloudy skies and light rain showers over the region
will slowly move north through the night as high pressure and
warmer air develop into the region. Saturday will be a spectacular
day for this late in October, a great day for outdoor activities.
It will be very warm with many areas reaching the mid 60s, even
higher in some areas. Enjoy it because another strong weather
disturbance will quickly move into the region late Saturday
through Monday. A couple of big impacts from this system.

1. Strong winds in mountains AND in Grangeville and the Camas
Prairie.

Tightening pressure gradients Sunday in conjunction with a strong
south to north jet will be the ingredients for windy conditions.
First, downsloping conditions will produce 20-30 mph winds with
gusts in the 40s in Grangeville and the Camas Prairie. Second,
open areas and ridgetops of central Idaho and the Bitterroot
Mountains may experience gusts to 60 mph.

2. Mountain snow Sunday and Sunday night. Mountain passes may
receive a few inches of accumulating snows.

Plenty of moisture and westerly winds will produce favorable
conditions for mountain rain and snow (orographic lift). Snow
levels will lower during the day Sunday to around 4000-4500 feet
through Monday. Mountainous areas above 4500 feet could receive
2-4 inches (more at the highest elevations) of snow during this
period. People with outdoor activities or hunters take precaution
as confidence is increasing for accumulating snows.

Unsettled weather looks to continue for at least the first part of
next week. Showers will likely continue into early Monday,
especially over the mountains. Snow levels will bottom out Monday
morning, with a few Bitterroot Valley flakes not out of the
question. Showers should taper off by the afternoon with some
partial clearing as the trough exits.

Another wet weather disturbance takes aim at the Pacific NW around
Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds will develop once again, and snow
levels look to rise as warmer air moves in. Central Idaho will
have the best chance of heavier rain, with lesser chances further
east. Pass-level snow is not expected as snow levels look to rise
above passes.

Drier weather is possible for the latter half of the week with
some ridging building in. Models are trending towards a more
amplified pattern overall, which would result in a longer break
in the active weather lasting through around Halloween.

&&

.AVIATION...A warm front is moving south to north across the
Northern Rockies. Winds will be light with this front. The
expected impacts at area terminals are lower ceilings with light
rain and mountain obscurations. KBTM will see shower chances
diminish this afternoon, with KMSO and KGPI being affected this
afternoon and evening. Clearing skies from south to north will
occur tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 242048
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED NORTH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN
TO THE EVENING HOURS SO ADDED ISOLATED POPS BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE
FAST MOVING AND PRODUCING LITTLE MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD WHICH BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ALLOWS SOME
PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA TO BRING A FAVORABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR MIXING. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 70 DEGREE TODAY WITH LOTS
OF SUN AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SUCH A WARM FALL DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE 13TH 70 DEGREE DAY OF OCTOBER 2014 AFTER 2013 HAVING
NO 70 DEGREE DAYS IN OCTOBER.

PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT TO KEEP MILD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ACCELERATING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LINE UP WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TO BRING INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BUT A COUPLE OF
FACTORS MAY BE LIMITING STRENGTH OF WINDS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG
MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION WILL BE GIVEN SOME WEAK LIFT APPROACHING
THE AREA AND ALSO NOT SURE IF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WIL BE FAVORABLE GIVEN HOW FAR INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA
IT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND. DID RAISE WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
THE LIVINGSTON AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA EARLY SUNDAY AND
WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE A
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE AREA BUT WIND SHIFT MAY NOT BE ALL
THAT NOTICEABLE AS THE FRONT JUMPS INTO THE PREEXISTING LEESIDE
TROUGH. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR A FALL FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT DRAMATIC. TIMING OF THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR DAY BREAK FOR WESTERN AREAS AND AROUND NOON
FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME DAYTIME
HEATING SUNDAY.

MODELS HINT AT FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER AS THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. WRF SHOWS THIS AS HAVING A CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT WHICH MAY BE OVER DOING THE DEVELOPMENTAL ASPECT OF THIS
FEATURE GIVEN THAT THE INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THAT DEEP.
WILL DEFINITELY BE A COOLER NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING LATE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS.

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AS AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND EXITING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES...MAINLY FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT
ON WEDNESDAY AS BY MORE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
COAST. STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING SOME
WEAK Q VECTOR FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER MONTANA. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LIVINGSTON TO NORTH
OF BILLINGS THIS EVENING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041/070 047/062 037/052 031/055 037/059 035/058 034/061
    00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    13/W    21/B    10/B
LVM 039/069 041/055 032/046 029/051 034/054 034/055 032/054
    10/N    13/W    33/W    11/B    23/W    22/W    10/B
HDN 037/073 039/065 035/053 030/056 033/060 033/058 032/062
    00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    12/W    21/B    10/B
MLS 038/070 041/066 037/050 029/054 033/059 031/055 030/059
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    11/B    10/B
4BQ 038/071 043/068 037/050 029/054 032/059 033/056 033/062
    00/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W    11/B    10/B
BHK 034/065 038/067 036/046 027/048 029/056 029/051 029/059
    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    11/B    10/B
SHR 037/073 041/067 032/050 028/054 029/059 029/057 030/058
    00/U    02/W    44/W    11/U    12/W    22/W    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 242047
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
247 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight thru Monday...A rather unsettled weather pattern will reside
over the region for the next few days. A warm front continues to
slowly push northward through the region. Light rain showers and
high elevation snow showers are falling along the front.
Precipitation amounts are quite light though. Expect the
precipitation to slowly shift northward tonight into North Central
MT. However...most areas will just see a passing shower/sprinkle.
For Saturday...warmer air will move into the region for just one
day. Expect mostly dry conditions along with mild temperatures. By
late Saturday night...the next Pacific cold front will be
approaching the region. This cold front will have better dynamics
with the frontal passage...thus gusty winds and a better chance
for precipitation is expected over portions of the region. Cooler
air will move into all areas on Sunday...with afternoon highs
about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday. The best chance for
precip on Sunday will be over the Rocky Mountain Front and in
Southwest MT. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are possible in
the mountains...mainly above 6000 feet. For Sunday night...the
upper level trof will be moving through North Central MT. As a
result...the best chance for preicp Sunday night and Monday will
shift northward into the Havre area. Enough cold air is expected
to move into the region by Monday morning...that a rain/snow mix
or all snow will be possible at all elevations of North Central
MT. Snow accumulations on Monday morning will generally be less
than 1/2 inch at lower elevations...but that snowfall might be
just enough to create a few slippery spots...especially on bridges
and higher elevation mountain passes. Temperatures will remain
well below normal for Monday afternoon.

In terms of highlights...no winter weather highlights are planned
for at this time...but should snow accumulations increase a
bit...some winter weather highlights might be needed. There is also
a small potential for strong winds Saturday night into Sunday over
the Northern Rockies and the Cut Bank area. Right now I have kept
wind speeds below warning criteria...but this will continue to be
monitored closely as well. Brusda

Tuesday through Friday...The upper level system exits Tuesday
with weak transient high pressure briefly moving over the region.
A generally unsettled westerly flow develops Wednesday and several
disturbances embedded in the flow will pass over Montana
Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast will bring
warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the week.
Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later in
the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period...but a period of
heavier precipitation is possible Wednesday over the Rocky
Mountain Front. EG/Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
VFR conditions expected through tonight. Widespread mid-level
ceilings will persist next several hours as west-southwest flow
aloft pushes broad Pacific moisture plume across the region.  But
current satellite imagery already indicating southern boundary of
the plume over central Idaho has begun to gradually lift northward
as high pressure ridging over the Great Basin states strengthens.
Will see steadily decreasing cloud cover from south-to-north from
this evening through tonight, with a few isolated -SHRA and ceilings
briefly lowering to 5000-7000 ft along and north of a KHLN-KLWT
line.  Breezy winds of 12-20 kts will continue through the aftn,
then shift more southerly and decrease this evening.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  68  45  53 /  20   0  10  20
CTB  37  60  41  52 /  20   0  10  20
HLN  39  70  43  55 /  20   0  10  30
BZN  33  70  37  54 /  20   0  10  40
WEY  28  60  28  41 /  10   0  20  60
DLN  38  69  40  50 /  10   0  20  40
HVR  38  63  40  59 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  39  69  43  57 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 241944
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
144 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND STRONG WEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW...WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK ON
SUNDAY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SITS NORTH OF THE US BORDER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND COMES INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT
TERM THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS AND TIMING BUT
THEY DO START DIVERGING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. THE LONG TERM FORECASTER WILL HAVE MORE IN
THEIR DISCUSSION. FRANSEN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE PERIODS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THESE PERIODS AS
EACH MODEL IS ATTEMPTING TO BRING MID LEVEL JETS UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BUT IS NOT SURE WHERE EXACTLY THE JET RESIDES AS IT
PASSES OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS IN TURN AFFECTS LIFT ZONES FOR
AREAS OF FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION FROM QUADRANT DYNAMICS.
CONSEQUENTLY EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT PLACE AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. OVERALL
FEELING IS THAT THIS IS A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT WHICH SHOULD NOT
KICK IN FOR THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG AS A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA. THE DEEPENING
WILL DRIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LEADING TO A NEARLY 20 DEGREE DROP
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY AT THE SURFACE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... MONDAY NIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
AND HIGH STABLE PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INVERSION WITH STRATIFIED TEMPERATURE PROFILE DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION. BY TUESDAY THE STORM SHOULD HAVE COMPLETELY CLEARED
WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
ALSO BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADES PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING VARIOUS MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE
REGION.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE WEST IAROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 241735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track. Just a few minor adjustments to
pops/temps for today...but nothing significant. Light rain/snow
showers continue in the mountains of Southwest MT...with snow
mainly falling above elevations of 6500 feet. Any new snow
accumulations today in the mountains will generally be less than
one inch. It will still be breezy today over North Central
MT...but wind speeds should not be quite as strong as yesterday.
The rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
VFR conditions expected through tonight. Widespread mid-level
ceilings will persist next several hours as west-southwest flow
aloft pushes broad Pacific moisture plume across the region.  But
current satellite imagery already indicating southern boundary of
the plume over central Idaho has begun to gradually lift northward
as high pressure ridging over the Great Basin states strengthens.
Will see steadily decreasing cloud cover from south-to-north from
this evening through tonight, with a few isolated -SHRA and ceilings
briefly lowering to 5000-7000 ft along and north of a KHLN-KLWT
line.  Breezy winds of 12-20 kts will continue through the aftn,
then shift more southerly and decrease this evening.
Waranauskas


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014/
Tonight through Sunday...Southwest flow aloft will continue over
the area until an upper trough moves into western Montana Sunday.
Snow showers over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front will
diminish the rest of Thursday night into this morning. Meanwhile
showers will increase over the western mountains of southwest
Montana today. An area of lift is expected to develop over
southwest Montana this afternoon then spread north tonight. Expect
scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains as a result and
there will also be a slight chance of a light shower over the
east slopes. Drier air will spread north in the wake of the area
of lift as an upper ridge develops over Montana. This ridge will
move east Saturday as an upper trough moves to near the west
coast. This upper trough will then move east Saturday night and an
associated cold front will move east through the forecast area. Do
not see a lot of moisture with the cold front so will continue
with the idea of snow showers over the Rocky Mountain Front with
just scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains of
southwest Montana. With the upper trough Sunday the chances of
precipitation will be higher. However gusty downslope winds will
limit precipitation chances over the plains. Snow levels will
tumble from 9000 to 10000 feet above Mean Sea Level Saturday to a
range from 5000 ft in the northwest portion of the forecast area
to between 6000 and 7000 feet in the southeast on Sunday. Snow
in the mountains should be at the most only a few inches.

Wind situation...high winds have failed to develop over the Rocky
Mountain Front so have cancelled the high wind warning. Also strong
winds in the Cut Bank area will diminish by daybreak. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region Sunday night
into Monday. With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances
appear to be mostly limited to the west and southwest mountains. The
system exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly
moving over the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops
Wednesday and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass
over Montana Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast
will bring warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the
week. Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later
in the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  65  44 /  10  20   0  10
CTB  55  35  59  40 /   0  20   0  10
HLN  59  39  68  42 /  20  20   0  10
BZN  60  33  69  37 /  30  10   0  10
WEY  49  28  60  27 /  20  10   0  20
DLN  55  38  68  40 /  20  10   0  20
HVR  59  37  63  40 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  59  38  68  43 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 241610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track. Just a few minor adjustments to
pops/temps for today...but nothing significant. Light rain/snow
showers continue in the mountains of Southwest MT...with snow
mainly falling above elevations of 6500 feet. Any new snow
accumulations today in the mountains will generally be less than
one inch. It will still be breezy today over North Central
MT...but wind speeds should not be quite as strong as yesterday.
The rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be
mostly mid level with the exception of the Continental Divide where
showers may be seen. West winds are expected to remain breezy across
the area with locations along the Rocky Mountain Front experiencing
the strongest gusts. Expect winds to diminish after 00Z Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014/
Tonight through Sunday...Southwest flow aloft will continue over
the area until an upper trough moves into western Montana Sunday.
Snow showers over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front will
diminish the rest of Thursday night into this morning. Meanwhile
showers will increase over the western mountains of southwest
Montana today. An area of lift is expected to develop over
southwest Montana this afternoon then spread north tonight. Expect
scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains as a result and
there will also be a slight chance of a light shower over the
east slopes. Drier air will spread north in the wake of the area
of lift as an upper ridge develops over Montana. This ridge will
move east Saturday as an upper trough moves to near the west
coast. This upper trough will then move east Saturday night and an
associated cold front will move east through the forecast area. Do
not see a lot of moisture with the cold front so will continue
with the idea of snow showers over the Rocky Mountain Front with
just scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains of
southwest Montana. With the upper trough Sunday the chances of
precipitation will be higher. However gusty downslope winds will
limit precipitation chances over the plains. Snow levels will
tumble from 9000 to 10000 feet above Mean Sea Level Saturday to a
range from 5000 ft in the northwest portion of the forecast area
to between 6000 and 7000 feet in the southeast on Sunday. Snow
in the mountains should be at the most only a few inches.

Wind situation...high winds have failed to develop over the Rocky
Mountain Front so have cancelled the high wind warning. Also strong
winds in the Cut Bank area will diminish by daybreak. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region Sunday night
into Monday. With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances
appear to be mostly limited to the west and southwest mountains. The
system exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly
moving over the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops
Wednesday and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass
over Montana Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast
will bring warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the
week. Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later
in the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  38  65  44 /  10  20   0  10
CTB  55  35  59  40 /   0  20   0  10
HLN  59  39  68  42 /  20  20   0  10
BZN  60  33  69  37 /  30  10   0  10
WEY  49  28  60  27 /  20  10   0  20
DLN  55  38  68  40 /  20  10   0  20
HVR  59  37  63  40 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  59  38  68  43 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 241600
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1000 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL BASED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS DESPITE BEING IN A POST COLD FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. RADAR REMAINS QUIET AND EXPECTATION THAT A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL HIT THE GROUND. MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST
SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

CORE OF A 150 KT JET WILL PASS N OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO REMAIN N OF THE AREA.
STREAMLINED VORTICITY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY WITH
SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE SW MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN FRINGE OF ZONES THIS
MORNING...THEN PUSH N THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE REWORKED THE POPS A BIT TO HAVE LOW CHANCES
OVER THE W/NW...SHIFTING TO THE NW/N CENTRAL ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON THE BEST LOCATIONS OF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/QPF. IN
ADDITION...SOME FRONTOGENESIS WILL LINGER OVER THESE AREAS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WAS FORECAST TO PUSH SE OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. MIXING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THE MOISTURE WILL PUSH N OUT OF THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. KEPT SOME LOW POPS MAINLY
IN THE EVENING OVER THE NW ZONES BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
MOISTURE IN THE TIME-HEIGHTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA ON SAT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS.
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SAT
NIGHT AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAIRLY
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE THIRD COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MOST OF THEM WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE OTHER IMPACT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE IS TO
DRIVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.

THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO WARRANT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE QUICK MOVING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT
COULD GET 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS WILL PROBABLY COME ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. DID RAISE POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MAY HAVE TO GET MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OVER TIME BUT
THE MODELS WERE STILL KEEPING THE PLAINS MAINLY PRECIPITATION
FREE.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST COLDEST OF THE THREE
BUT SHOULD GIVE THE MOUNTAINS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. RAISED POPS FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS TO END THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP TOWARD THE LOWER 60S AFTER A WEEK OF
SEASONAL VALUES. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SOME LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CLOUDS BASES WILL BE LOWERING FOR WESTERN AREAS INCLUDING
KLVM WITH SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 041/070 047/061 037/052 030/054 037/058 035/055
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    13/W    21/B
LVM 062 039/069 041/054 032/046 028/050 034/054 034/054
    2/W 10/N    13/W    33/W    11/B    23/W    22/W
HDN 067 037/073 039/064 035/053 029/055 033/059 033/056
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 066 038/070 041/065 037/051 029/053 033/057 031/053
    0/B 00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 066 038/071 043/067 037/051 028/053 032/058 033/054
    0/B 00/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
BHK 065 034/065 038/065 036/048 025/047 029/054 029/049
    0/B 00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 063 037/073 041/066 032/050 025/053 029/059 029/055
    0/B 00/U    02/W    44/W    11/U    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 241542
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
942 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS MORNING WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUDS ON SATELLITE RIGHT NOW AND I DON`T SEE
THAT DECREASING MUCH TODAY. MAIN SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH THE TROF AND COLD FRONT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND THE WINDS ARE PICKING UP BUT
EXPECT THOSE TO DROP OFF BY SUNSET.  FRANSEN

THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS
FORCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTLINE UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS
BEING WRUNG OUT AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEAVING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL DIRECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. FEEL LIKE 20G30 MPH IS A GOOD BET. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE
AROUND A SIMILAR SOLUTION BRINGING A DEEPER AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWERS COULD EASILY LINE UP OVER OUR SE ZONES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SEEMS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR MASS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS SEEM TO THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM ALSO
BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADES PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING VARIOUS MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE
REGION.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE WEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 18Z
TODAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 241214
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Southwest flow aloft will continue over
the area until an upper trough moves into western Montana Sunday.
Snow showers over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front will
diminish the rest of Thursday night into this morning. Meanwhile
showers will increase over the western mountains of southwest
Montana today. An area of lift is expected to develop over
southwest Montana this afternoon then spread north tonight. Expect
scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains as a result and
there will also be a slight chance of a light shower over the
east slopes. Drier air will spread north in the wake of the area
of lift as an upper ridge develops over Montana. This ridge will
move east Saturday as an upper trough moves to near the west
coast. This upper trough will then move east Saturday night and an
associated cold front will move east through the forecast area. Do
not see a lot of moisture with the cold front so will continue
with the idea of snow showers over the Rocky Mountain Front with
just scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains of
southwest Montana. With the upper trough Sunday the chances of
precipitation will be higher. However gusty downslope winds will
limit precipitation chances over the plains. Snow levels will
tumble from 9000 to 10000 feet above Mean Sea Level Saturday to a
range from 5000 ft in the northwest portion of the forecast area
to between 6000 and 7000 feet in the southeast on Sunday. Snow
in the mountains should be at the most only a few inches.

Wind situation...high winds have failed to develop over the Rocky
Mountain Front so have cancelled the high wind warning. Also strong
winds in the Cut Bank area will diminish by daybreak. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region Sunday night
into Monday. With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances
appear to be mostly limited to the west and southwest mountains. The
system exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly
moving over the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops
Wednesday and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass
over Montana Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast
will bring warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the
week. Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later
in the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be
mostly mid level with the exception of the Continental Divide where
showers may be seen. West winds are expected to remain breezy across
the area with locations along the Rocky Mountain Front experiencing
the strongest gusts. Expect winds to diminish after 00Z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  38  65  44 /  10  20   0  10
CTB  56  35  59  40 /  10  20   0  10
HLN  59  39  68  42 /  30  20   0  10
BZN  59  33  69  37 /  30  10   0  10
WEY  54  28  60  27 /  20  10   0  20
DLN  62  38  68  40 /  20  10   0  20
HVR  61  37  63  40 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  59  38  68  43 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 240955
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
355 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Southwest flow aloft will continue over
the area until an upper trough moves into western Montana Sunday.
Snow showers over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front will
diminish the rest of Thursday night into this morning. Meanwhile
showers will increase over the western mountains of southwest
Montana today. An area of lift is expected to develop over
southwest Montana this afternoon then spread north tonight. Expect
scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains as a result and
there will also be a slight chance of a light shower over the
east slopes. Drier air will spread north in the wake of the area
of lift as an upper ridge develops over Montana. This ridge will
move east Saturday as an upper trough moves to near the west
coast. This upper trough will then move east Saturday night and an
associated cold front will move east through the forecast area. Do
not see a lot of moisture with the cold front so will continue
with the idea of snow showers over the Rocky Mountain Front with
just scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains of
southwest Montana. With the upper trough Sunday the chances of
precipitation will be higher. However gusty downslope winds will
limit precipitation chances over the plains. Snow levels will
tumble from 9000 to 10000 feet above Mean Sea Level Saturday to a
range from 5000 ft in the northwest portion of the forecast area
to between 6000 and 7000 feet in the southeast on Sunday. Snow
in the mountains should be at the most only a few inches.

Wind situation...high winds have failed to develop over the Rocky
Mountain Front so have cancelled the high wind warning. Also strong
winds in the Cut Bank area will diminish by daybreak. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region Sunday night
into Monday. With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances
appear to be mostly limited to the west and southwest mountains. The
system exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly
moving over the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops
Wednesday and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass
over Montana Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast
will bring warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the
week. Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later
in the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing the strongest
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  38  65  44 /  10  20   0  10
CTB  56  35  59  40 /  10  20   0  10
HLN  59  39  68  42 /  30  20   0  10
BZN  59  33  69  37 /  30  10   0  10
WEY  54  28  60  27 /  20  10   0  20
DLN  62  38  68  40 /  20  10   0  20
HVR  61  37  63  40 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  59  38  68  43 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KMSO 240938
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT CENTRAL IDAHO SATURDAY...
...COLD FRONT TO BRING SNOW TO PASSES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...Few impacts today under mostly cloudy skies with
light rain showers as a weak warm front moves north across central
Idaho and western Montana today.

Saturday a short lived ridge builds over western Montana causing
nice weather for Saturday. Meanwhile a deep trough digging off the
west coast will cause southwest winds to pick up in central Idaho.
Strong winds Saturday along highway 95 from Riggins to
Grangeville, and across the Camas Prairie will frequently gust
over 40 mph through the afternoon and evening.

Sunday the next cold front arrives causing snow levels to drop to
around 4,000 to 5,000 feet by Sunday evening. Two to six inches of
snow are possible over Lost Trail, Lolo, Lookout, Skalkaho, and
Marias passes by Monday morning.

Models are starting to come into agreement for the middle of next
week with another moist system for the mountains. However, a warm
front with this system will cause the snow levels to quickly rise
to around 7,000 feet or above, so it will have much less of an
impact for travel.

&&

.AVIATION...A warm front will move south to north across the
Northern Rockies today. The only expected impacts at area
terminals are lower ceilings with light rain and mountain
obscurations. KSMN will be affected this morning with terminals
KMSO and KGPI being affected this afternoon and evening.





&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KGGW 240916
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS
FORCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTLINE UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS
BEING WRUNG OUT AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEAVING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL DIRECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. FEEL LIKE 20G30 MPH IS A GOOD BET. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE
AROUND A SIMILAR SOLUTION BRINGING A DEEPER AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWERS COULD EASILY LINE UP OVER OUR SE ZONES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SEEMS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR MASS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS SEEM TO THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM ALSO
BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADED PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z TODAY. THE WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240907
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

CORE OF A 150 KT JET WILL PASS N OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO REMAIN N OF THE AREA.
STREAMLINED VORTICITY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY WITH
SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE SW MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN FRINGE OF ZONES THIS
MORNING...THEN PUSH N THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE REWORKED THE POPS A BIT TO HAVE LOW CHANCES
OVER THE W/NW...SHIFTING TO THE NW/N CENTRAL ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON THE BEST LOCATIONS OF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/QPF. IN
ADDITION...SOME FRONTOGENESIS WILL LINGER OVER THESE AREAS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WAS FORECAST TO PUSH SE OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. MIXING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THE MOISTURE WILL PUSH N OUT OF THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. KEPT SOME LOW POPS MAINLY
IN THE EVENING OVER THE NW ZONES BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
MOISTURE IN THE TIME-HEIGHTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA ON SAT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS.
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SAT
NIGHT AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAIRLY
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE THIRD COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MOST OF THEM WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE OTHER IMPACT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE IS TO
DRIVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.

THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO WARRANT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE QUICK MOVING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT
COULD GET 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS WILL PROBABLY COME ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. DID RAISE POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MAY HAVE TO GET MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OVER TIME BUT
THE MODELS WERE STILL KEEPING THE PLAINS MAINLY PRECIPITATION
FREE.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST COLDEST OF THE THREE
BUT SHOULD GIVE THE MOUNTAINS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. RAISED POPS FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS TO END THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP TOWARD THE LOWER 60S AFTER A WEEK OF
SEASONAL VALUES. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LIVINGSTON WILL DECREASE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REPLACE THE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY LINE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 041/070 047/061 037/052 030/054 037/058 035/055
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    13/W    21/B
LVM 063 039/069 041/054 032/046 028/050 034/054 034/054
    2/W 10/N    13/W    33/W    11/B    23/W    22/W
HDN 069 037/073 039/064 035/053 029/055 033/059 033/056
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 068 038/070 041/065 037/051 029/053 033/057 031/053
    0/B 00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 068 038/071 043/067 037/051 028/053 032/058 033/054
    0/B 00/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
BHK 067 034/065 038/065 036/048 025/047 029/054 029/049
    0/B 00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 064 037/073 041/066 032/050 025/053 029/059 029/055
    0/B 00/U    02/W    44/W    11/U    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 240451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing the strongest
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 240451
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

UPDATE TO AVIATION

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 450Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing the strongest
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls












000
FXUS65 KTFX 240320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing stronger
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KTFX 240320
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Strong and moist southwest to westerly flow aloft
continues over Montana tonight. Have updated in conjunction with the
Missoula office to increase PoPs to categorical along the entire
length of the Continental Divide. This does not significantly affect
the overall forecast, but the increased chance for showers did spill
over the divide enough to raise weather wording in the Helena Valley
to scattered showers rather than isolated. Strong winds along the
Rocky Mountain Front have not materialized yet, and I am not overly
optimistic that they will. However, the warning will be allowed to
continue overnight as models still suggest that stronger winds aloft
should move over the region after midnight. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing stronger
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls










000
FXUS65 KGGW 240245 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CANNOT ALSO RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. HRRR MODEL IS BEST AT REPRESENTING REALITY AND
SHOWS REFLECTIVITIES TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT
SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S
READINGS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 240245 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CANNOT ALSO RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SPRINKLES. HRRR MODEL IS BEST AT REPRESENTING REALITY AND
SHOWS REFLECTIVITIES TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT
SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S
READINGS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT
18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS TO ADJUST FOR TIMING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ALREADY THROUGH LIVINGSTON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES.
REIMER/TESAR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A 170KT JET CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PROVIDING FOR LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR LAST FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS
STRONG OF WINDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK AROUND 15-18C WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVE INLAND AND AS FAR EAST AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURNED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TWO
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY...WITH TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUFFER PRECIPITATION
WISE FROM A ZONAL DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MAIN FORCING BANDS PUSH THROUGH. BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THOSE
PLANNING HUNTING TRIPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND WINTER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY CAUSE SOME OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...EXCEPT AT LIVINGSTON WHERE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/065 041/069 047/061 037/054 031/056 037/058 036/057
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 044/061 039/068 041/055 032/048 028/054 034/054 034/055
    22/W    20/U    23/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    22/W
HDN 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060 033/058
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 042/065 038/070 041/064 038/052 029/056 032/056 031/055
    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058 034/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 040/064 034/065 038/065 037/050 026/050 029/054 028/050
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 041/065 037/073 041/066 033/052 025/057 028/060 030/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS TO ADJUST FOR TIMING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ALREADY THROUGH LIVINGSTON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES.
REIMER/TESAR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A 170KT JET CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PROVIDING FOR LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR LAST FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS
STRONG OF WINDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK AROUND 15-18C WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVE INLAND AND AS FAR EAST AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURNED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TWO
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY...WITH TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUFFER PRECIPITATION
WISE FROM A ZONAL DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MAIN FORCING BANDS PUSH THROUGH. BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THOSE
PLANNING HUNTING TRIPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND WINTER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY CAUSE SOME OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...EXCEPT AT LIVINGSTON WHERE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/065 041/069 047/061 037/054 031/056 037/058 036/057
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 044/061 039/068 041/055 032/048 028/054 034/054 034/055
    22/W    20/U    23/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    22/W
HDN 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060 033/058
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 042/065 038/070 041/064 038/052 029/056 032/056 031/055
    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058 034/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 040/064 034/065 038/065 037/050 026/050 029/054 028/050
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 041/065 037/073 041/066 033/052 025/057 028/060 030/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 232350
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Put out an early update to increase cloud cover and
bring isolated/scattered showers a bit further out over the
plains for this afternoon and evening. This change affects the Cut
Bank to Havre region more than anywhere else. Latest satellite and
radar imagery as well as mid afternoon model updates support this
change. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Widespread moisture ahead the next system will combine with
southwesterly winds to create mid and high level clouds over much of
the area. Winds are expected to remain breezy across the area with
locations along the rocky mountain front experiencing stronger
winds. Some isolated showers may develop over the higher terrain...
however downsloping winds should keep moisture away from TAF sites.
Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  20  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 232253
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...Put out an early update to increase cloud cover and
bring isolated/scattered showers a bit further out over the
plains for this afternoon and evening. This change affects the Cut
Bank to Havre region more than anywhere else. Latest satellite and
radar imagery as well as mid afternoon model updates support this
change. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  20  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 232057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...A brisk westerly flow aloft will
continue to reside over the region over through Friday. As a
result...strong winds are expected over the Rocky Mountain Front
later this evening through mid morning Friday. Thus the high wind
watch has been changed to a high wind warning for the Rocky
Mountain Front. Additionally...periods of showers will continue to
affect areas near the divide. Precip east of the divide will be
quite limited...other than a passing light shower at best.
Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler than
today...as a weak Pacific cool front moves through the region
during the morning hours on Friday. For Saturday...a southwesterly
flow aloft redevelops over the region. This will allow for warmer
air to move back northward into the region. Afternoon highs will
climb back up into the mid 60s in many areas over Central and
Southwest Montana. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Saturday...with the best area to see any showers being the
northern Rocky Mountain Front. Brusda

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  58  39  65 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  40  55  34  58 /  10  10  20   0
HLN  43  59  39  68 /  20  20  20   0
BZN  38  59  31  70 /  20  20  20   0
WEY  32  53  27  59 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  41  60  38  69 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  42  61  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  59  38  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 232047
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A 170KT JET CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PROVIDING FOR LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR LAST FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS
STRONG OF WINDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK AROUND 15-18C WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVE INLAND AND AS FAR EAST AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURNED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TWO
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY...WITH TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUFFER PRECIPITATION
WISE FROM A ZONAL DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MAIN FORCING BANDS PUSH THROUGH. BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THOSE
PLANNING HUNTING TRIPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND WINTER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS WITH
OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE KLVM
TAF SITE. HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF ALL AREA
MOUNTAINS. THE KSHR TAF LOCATION COULD SEE SOME ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THIS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/065 041/069 047/061 037/054 031/056 037/058 036/057
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 044/061 039/068 041/055 032/048 028/054 034/054 034/055
    22/W    20/U    23/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    22/W
HDN 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060 033/058
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 042/065 038/070 041/064 038/052 029/056 032/056 031/055
    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058 034/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 040/064 034/065 038/065 037/050 026/050 029/054 028/050
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 041/065 037/073 041/066 033/052 025/057 028/060 030/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 232024
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
224 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HUGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOT OFF A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CENT SASK. THE MOISTURE STREAM IS
LAYING NE ACROSS MONTANA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING SE AND
AT LEAST FILTER THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSOCIATED JET THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
MOISTURE STREAM DRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THUS LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A RIDGE OVER MONTANA. COOLER
MORNING TEMPS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT WARM OVER FRIDAY/S
READINGS. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTERNOON UPDATE INCLUDED TRENDING THE POPS UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE TROF
WILL BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL IT COME. THE MODELS ARE HONESTLY
NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE POPS ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
TROF SOUTH OF IT AND THE FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AT 00Z
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. THAT
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FRANSEN

UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: SOME MID CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z FRI. OTHERWISE WINDS DIE
DOWN AROUND 06KT AT SUNSET AND PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT 10-15KTS
BTWN 15-18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KMSO 232021
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
220 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southerly winds continue to gust into the mid 40s in
Grangeville and vicinity this afternoon. Expect these winds to
continue through early evening. Southwesterly flow aloft with an
abundant moisture plume continues to support a stream of showers
moving through the region today. Snow levels have been around 7000
ft or higher for this system keeping any snow accumulations
limited to the higher peaks. So far, mountains have received a few
tenths to around an inch including Lookout Pass, while valleys
have been generally shadowed with this system.

Already there has been lightning reported in the showers near the
Washington and Idaho State line. There is a low potential for a
few isolated thunderstorms from central Idaho into northwest
Montana this afternoon and evening as model soundings suggest
modest instability. The biggest threat would be for the stronger
showers to bring down gusty winds between 35 and 40 mph. It
doesn`t take much to bring down a few small trees across these
areas especially those that have received rainfall already today,
so that will have to be monitored by the evening shift.

A few showers will linger through Friday before drier weather
temporarily returns for later Friday and Saturday. The Camas
Prairie region will once again see some gusty winds Saturday
afternoon as another tight southerly pressure gradient develops.
Gust approaching 40 mph will not be out of the question.

A much cooler system with snow levels lowering to 4000-5000 ft
will approach the region late Saturday/early Sunday, keeping high
temperatures cooler than normal and bringing additional
widespread rain and snow showers. Windy southwest winds are
expected with this system, potentially gusting to 35 to 45 mph
over the mountain ridges. The southwesterly winds could also
create choppy conditions on area lakes, especially Flathead Lake.
Off and on rain and snow showers are possible through Monday with
northwest flow. A few flakes could also be visible down to valley
floors Monday morning, however nothing to amount to any impacts.

Unsettled weather will continue the middle to late next week with
models indicating a few weather disturbances moving through the
region. Temperatures will be at or below normal. Models are pretty
inconsistent with each other so confidence is pretty low for any
timing of weather systems and their impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...The plume of moisture is expected to shift southward
with time through this evening. There is the small possibility
that a few of the showers over central Idaho into west-central
Montana could become intense enough to support isolated lightning
and strong gusty winds near 35 knots. The frontal zone will stall
from central Idaho County in Idaho east to Deer Lodge, Montana by
24/0900z. This will be the focus for continued moderate to perhaps
heavy showers and mountain obscurations through Friday afternoon.
There will be a lull in the precipitation at KGPI tonight into
Friday and with a weak surface pressure gradient, fog could form
by 24/1200z there. The aforementioned stalled frontal boundary
will lift north into northwest Montana as a warm front after
25/0000z(Friday evening).




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 231742
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231742
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Extensive plume of Pacific moisture and southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching upper-level trof will keep widespread mid-level
ceilings (generally above 8000-10000 feet) across central and
southwest MT through tonight.  Most terminals will not see
precipitation, but did put in a mention of VCSH at KBZN/KHLN after
02Z as forecast models showing a few showers over higher terrain
near those locations as a surface cold front passes through the
region.  Breezy to gusty winds will continue through early evening;
widespread gusts of 25-35 kts likely.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 231634
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1033 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Approaching low pressure trough will displace the high pressure
ridge. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most areas for the
next 24 hours with mid-level BKN to OVC skies. Gusty west to
southwest winds are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains extending into central Montana and continuing
through the period. Rain showers will develop over the west and
southwest mountains decreasing some after 06z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 231634
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1033 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track...with just a few minor adjustments.
Have increased pops in the St Mary and East Glacier Park region as
precip has spread out just a bit from the mountains.
Otherwise...just small little adjustments to temps/sky grids.

In terms of high winds for tonight...mid level winds continue to
be near 65 knots per the NAM model over the Rocky Mountain
Front...but mixing it down to the surface continues to be a
problem. We will look at this further for the afternoon package.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Approaching low pressure trough will displace the high pressure
ridge. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most areas for the
next 24 hours with mid-level BKN to OVC skies. Gusty west to
southwest winds are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and
adjacent plains extending into central Montana and continuing
through the period. Rain showers will develop over the west and
southwest mountains decreasing some after 06z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Thu Oct 23 2014/
Today through Saturday...There will be a strong moist southwest
flow aloft today and tonight which will bring precipitation to the
western mountains. A weather disturbance aloft will zip across
southern Canada tonight. The associated cold front will spread
south tonight and should bring scattered showers to the mountains of
southwest and central Montana with a slight chance of showers for
the southwest valleys. Downslope should keep the plains dry. Snow
levels over the western mountains will drop to near 6000 feet by
late tonight but by then precipitation will have diminished so any
significant snow should be confined to the higher mountains. Friday
afternoon an area of lift will develop over southwest Montana and
this lift will spread north Friday night. Moisture associated with
this lift will be primarily aloft with low levels remaining
on the dry side. Hence will keep the main threat for precipitation
confined to the mountains. Early Saturday an upper ridge will be
over western Montana and this ridge will shift into eastern
Montana during the afternoon. Meanwhile a deep upper trough will
be approaching the west coast. The main moisture with the upper
trough will stay to the west of Montana so expect a dry day.

As for the high wind watch tonight and Friday morning for the
Rocky Mountain Front..although winds will be strong aloft today
and tonight do not see a real good mechanism for bringing them to
the surface. In particular do not see an inversion above mountain
top level and the cold front tonight does not look very strong. In
addition models continue to be quite different on just how strong
winds aloft will be. Consequently confidence is not high enough to
turn the high wind watch to a warning but on the other hand
confidence that winds will not reach high wind criteria is not
high enough to drop the watch. Will have day shift take another
look. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Models continue in good agreement
advertising another upper level low pressure trough moving in
Saturday night and Sunday while at the same time surface high
pressure over central Canada pushes some cooler air south into
Montana. Best chances for precipitation appear to be limited to the
west and southwest mountains, and temperatures will drop about 10
degrees Monday. As trough exits to the east Tuesday, weak high
pressure will build over the area, however, it appears several
smaller systems embedded in the flow will be working their way
through keeping skies mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures and
periods of gusty winds through the remainder of the period. Chances
of precipitation remain low. Next low pressure trough then expected
to move through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  44  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  62  40  56  35 /  10  10  10  20
HLN  65  43  59  39 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  64  38  59  33 /  10  20  20  20
WEY  51  31  51  27 /  10  20  20  10
DLN  61  40  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
HVR  68  42  61  35 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  66  42  59  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Friday
morning Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 231529
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG JET STREAM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS AT
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL ARE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS SOME
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING HAS KEPT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN STRONG WIND
GUSTS FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA. THIS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY LATE
MORNING AND THIS IS ALREADY SHOWING AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED QUITE
A BIT ALREADY AT LIVINGSTON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TODAY. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSE TO 70
DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS...NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

130 KT JET MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE BULK OF THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
N OF THE AREA AS MODELS ALL KEEP THE JET CORE TO THE N.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FAST SW
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. PIECES OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
ZONAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FRI NIGHT.

PLAN VIEW OF MOISTURE SHOWED SOME APPROACHING THE WESTERN ZONES
BY 00Z FRI. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
SO THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BUT NO PRECIPITATION
TODAY. LEE TROUGHING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PRE-FRONTAL
MIXING...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY...IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGESTED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND KLVM AREA AFTER 06Z.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE W ON FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. FRI WILL
HAVE LESS WIND THAN TODAY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRI BEHIND THE THU NIGHT COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DRY AND MILD SATURDAY...
COURTESY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF PAC COAST TROF. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC FLOW...AND THUS COOLER
TEMPS...WILL BEGIN SUNDAY. TIMING OF THE INITIAL WAVE AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND A BIT SLOWER SO HAVE RAISED EXPECTED
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND PUSHED POPS BACK SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN
W/ THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS/EC
EACH HIT OUR SOUTH PARTS WITH GREATEST QPF PER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY VEERED N-NW UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GIVEN OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. SHOULD BE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY SO HAVE SUSTAINED ISOLD TO SCT POPS HERE...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF. CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST BRIEF RIDGING FOR
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 50S FOR HIGHS MONDAY/
TUESDAY...ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT
BILLINGS HAS NOT SEEN A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A GREAT AMOUNT OF SPREAD INVOLVING THE FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS MODEL UNCERTAINTY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE INVOLVEMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. SO AM EXPECTING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD TO CONTINUE AS WE EASE
OURSELF INTO A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE COMING DAYS. IN ANY
EVENT...WILL SUSTAIN NEAR CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY
AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC EACH SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY BY THEN...THOUGH
IN DIFFERING REGIMES. BY 168 HOURS THESE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
EASTERN PACIFIC.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHICH INCLUDES KLVM...WILL GUST TO 45 KTS THIS
MORNING DROPPING TO AROUND 35KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25KTS
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 047/064 041/069 045/061 037/054 031/056 037/058
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
LVM 069 045/062 040/069 043/055 032/048 028/054 034/054
    0/N 22/W    20/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    22/W
HDN 073 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
MLS 073 043/067 039/070 042/064 038/052 029/056 032/056
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W
4BQ 072 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    42/W    11/U    12/W
BHK 070 041/066 034/065 039/065 037/050 026/050 029/054
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W
SHR 071 041/067 034/073 039/066 033/052 025/057 028/060
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 231522
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG PUSH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN
AND MODELS AGAIN SEEM TO BE TO OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY. SO INCREASED SKY
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS
AT GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LESS
SUN (TEMPS WERE 14 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ON THE 15TH...SO THIS CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT). TWEAKED WINDS AROUND GLASGOW AS WEST WINDS PROBABLY
WON/T BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS ANTICIPATED (WITH THE LESSER
THAN EXPECTED MIXING). TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A
SMALL-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY JUST AHEAD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN APPROACHING
FLOW TURNED MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS ITS RESPONSIBLE
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MARCHES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. TODAYS SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY TURNED
MORE ZONAL BY THE COMPETING PRESSURE FIELD REGIMES.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THESE AREAS OF TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FUNNEL STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA DURING PEAK HEATING. AS SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FAILED
TO PROPERLY INGEST THEIR FULL COMPLIMENT OF SATELLITE DATA...FELT
IT WAS BEST TO DELAY ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND LEAVE IT FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO SERIOUSLY
CONSIDER...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
IT...LIKELY FROM 18Z THROUGH 01Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRONG AND INFLUENTIAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL DIRECT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA.

NO ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH
STAYS TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART. UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAS SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF START SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS FAVORS A COLDER WETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A WARMER DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH MODELS
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOOK
FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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