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000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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000
FXUS65 KMSO 282046
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty westerly winds will continue into early evening before
gradually diminishing with several areas under wind advisories.
Many locations will see gusts of 35-45 mph, while favored windy
areas such as the I-90 corridor from Deer Lodge to Drummond to
Butte will likely see slightly higher gusts at times. Chopping
conditions will also continue on Flathead Lake, where small boat
operators are urged to use caution.

Scattered shower activity with an isolated thunderstorm threat will
persist the rest of the afternoon, especially over northwest and
west central Montana. Areas passes may briefly experience moderate
snow showers, but nothing more than a light slush accumulation
will be possible. High pressure will bring a return to drier and
warmer weather Sunday into Monday, in fact high temperatures
Monday are expected to rise to well above normal.

Tuesday will bring the next vigorous spring front. Showers,
possibly with embedded thunderstorms, will increase early from
west to east as the front pushes through, along with gusty winds.
Wind advisories, including for Flathead Lake, may be required
again for Tuesday. Snow levels will lower with showers lingering
Tuesday night, bringing potential for pass impacts. Cool and
unsettled weather will then continue through the remainder of the
week, as a complex weather system lingers over the northern
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...The upper level wave that has been responsible for the
scattered rain and snow showers and breezy conditions over the
region will shift off to the east by tonight. Strong gusty winds
are expected to peak by 28/2200z and then diminish especially
after 29/0200z at all terminals. Expect drier and milder
conditions on Sunday and Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds
into the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM MDT this evening Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM MDT this evening Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM MDT this evening Flathead/Mission
     Valleys.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 282046
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST WIND GUST
SO FAR AS OF 2 PM CAME FROM A SITE IN WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY (56
MPH). HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES UNTIL THE
GUST FRONT MOVES INTO ND...PROBABLY ABOUT 500-600 PM. TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVES ACROSS
THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN CLEARING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THEY BLOW NEAR 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS GOING.

SUNDAY PROMISES TO BE A QUIETER DAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TURNS WINDS TO THE NW. 850 MB TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 3-5*C
BUT BETTER MIXING SHOULD GIVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO SUNDAY/S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

CHOSE TO UPDATE THE LONG TERM GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST MODEL UPDATES AND BEST CONSENSUS I COULD SEE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EASILY GUSTING UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A
LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DAWSON...
MCCONE...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KMSO 282046
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
246 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty westerly winds will continue into early evening before
gradually diminishing with several areas under wind advisories.
Many locations will see gusts of 35-45 mph, while favored windy
areas such as the I-90 corridor from Deer Lodge to Drummond to
Butte will likely see slightly higher gusts at times. Chopping
conditions will also continue on Flathead Lake, where small boat
operators are urged to use caution.

Scattered shower activity with an isolated thunderstorm threat will
persist the rest of the afternoon, especially over northwest and
west central Montana. Areas passes may briefly experience moderate
snow showers, but nothing more than a light slush accumulation
will be possible. High pressure will bring a return to drier and
warmer weather Sunday into Monday, in fact high temperatures
Monday are expected to rise to well above normal.

Tuesday will bring the next vigorous spring front. Showers,
possibly with embedded thunderstorms, will increase early from
west to east as the front pushes through, along with gusty winds.
Wind advisories, including for Flathead Lake, may be required
again for Tuesday. Snow levels will lower with showers lingering
Tuesday night, bringing potential for pass impacts. Cool and
unsettled weather will then continue through the remainder of the
week, as a complex weather system lingers over the northern
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...The upper level wave that has been responsible for the
scattered rain and snow showers and breezy conditions over the
region will shift off to the east by tonight. Strong gusty winds
are expected to peak by 28/2200z and then diminish especially
after 29/0200z at all terminals. Expect drier and milder
conditions on Sunday and Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds
into the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM MDT this evening Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM MDT this evening Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM MDT this evening Flathead/Mission
     Valleys.

ID...&&

$$




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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282032
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
232 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK WITH FRONT IN WEST...BUT SOME
MARGINAL CAPE IN EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG NORTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY LINES. CONVECTIVE RELATED
GUSTS COULD HIT 60-70 MPH LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED 30 TO
NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-60 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN POST FRONTAL
AREAS. SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND FRONT 15-20 DEGREES. WE
WILL TRY TO KEEP UP WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS REPORTS AS WE GET
THEM...AND SUMMARIZE SOMETHING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

NO CHANGES TO RED FLAG OR HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. VERY
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO WIND. FIRES NEAR RED
LODGE AND COLUMBUS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE. MEDIA PARTNERS...PLEASE REMIND FOLKS TO USE EXTREME CAUTION.
LIVES AND PROPERTY AT STAKE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS REGION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A DROP
IN WINDS BY 03-06Z. WINDS MAY HANG ON LONGER IN THE FAR EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WHICH GOES UNTIL 3 AM.

MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOTHING LIKE TODAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE MONDAY LINGERS
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING. CERTAINLY SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF CONCERN. THE TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A CHANGE TO A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN. THIS BRINGS IN A
COOLER AND UNSETTLED REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING FOR AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING LOWER OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF
30 TO 45KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH AN OCCASIONAL AREA OF HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
CEILINGS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 042/071 045/072 041/055 033/050 030/053 033/058
    10/B    00/B    01/B    32/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
LVM 035/063 038/069 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049 028/053
    10/U    00/B    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
HDN 037/068 037/073 039/076 040/057 032/052 029/054 032/059
    10/U    00/B    01/B    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/065 039/069 041/076 042/057 033/050 030/053 033/060
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/065 036/070 039/077 040/056 032/050 028/052 029/061
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 035/060 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049 030/057
    30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
SHR 037/062 034/068 037/075 036/051 028/048 026/050 028/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    22/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
      7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
      7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTFX 282031
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...An upper level low pressure trof will move
east of the region this evening and winds will decrease through the
evening. The high wind warning is currently scheduled to expire at 9
pm this evening and will not make any changes to the timing. High
pressure aloft will build through Monday and the air mass will warm
and dry. Temperatures will trend upwards as the air mass warms and
temperatures by Monday could be 20 degrees or more above seasonal
averages. Zelzer

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  62  40  69 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  35  59  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  36  63  39  69 /  10  10  10   0
BZN  27  63  32  69 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  20  52  25  57 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  30  61  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  33  66  36  69 /  50   0   0   0
LWT  36  62  39  68 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Beaverhead...
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Liberty...Madison...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 282031
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...An upper level low pressure trof will move
east of the region this evening and winds will decrease through the
evening. The high wind warning is currently scheduled to expire at 9
pm this evening and will not make any changes to the timing. High
pressure aloft will build through Monday and the air mass will warm
and dry. Temperatures will trend upwards as the air mass warms and
temperatures by Monday could be 20 degrees or more above seasonal
averages. Zelzer

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  62  40  69 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  35  59  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  36  63  39  69 /  10  10  10   0
BZN  27  63  32  69 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  20  52  25  57 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  30  61  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  33  66  36  69 /  50   0   0   0
LWT  36  62  39  68 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Beaverhead...
Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...
Liberty...Madison...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281751 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

BMICKELSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Update Aviation...
.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Update Aviation...
.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Update Aviation...
.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Update Aviation...
.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Update Aviation...
.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 281732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Update Aviation...
.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281659
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ

909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 281532
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern is
going to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281532
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern is
going to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KGGW 281509
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TODAY
WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER. GOING FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS JOINING THE WETTER
CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH GENERATING SHOWERS THAN
WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK
WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281509
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TODAY
WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER. GOING FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS JOINING THE WETTER
CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH GENERATING SHOWERS THAN
WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK
WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT/BLM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 281140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern is
going to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  55  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  61  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  63  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 281140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern is
going to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  55  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  61  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  63  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 281140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern is
going to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  55  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  61  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  63  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 281013
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
413 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SCT

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
WILL LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER SHOWERS.

THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND STRENGTH
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.

SCT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GARFIELD...PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ122-135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...MCCONE.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 281002
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
402 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
High pressure aloft continues to provide dry and stable conditions.
A chinook arch has developed in the lee of the Rockies and will
persist overnight. A disturbance aloft and associated cold front
will move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along
and behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front.
VFR conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become obscured
at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  55  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  61  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  63  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and
Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 280947
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
347 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is crossing the region this morning
causing some showers and gusty winds. This fast-moving system
will be over the Continental Divide by noon MDT, leaving isolated
showers and very gusty winds behind it. The first bout of winds
will last less than an hour and will arrive with the front, then
winds will increase again this afternoon as the heat of the sun
mixes the lower atmosphere. Several areas have wind advisories.

A Lake Wind advisory has been issued for Flathead Lake where 20mph
plus winds are expected most of the day once the front passes.
This will cause difficult, choppy conditions for small and
under-powered water craft. Those planning on being on the lake
today should be prepared for a rough day.

Missoula and areas east, including Ovando, Avon, Butte, and
especially Garrison Junction to Deer Lodge can expect 20-30 mph
winds this afternoon with frequent gusts near 50 mph. Interstate
90 from Garrison Junction past Deer Lodge will be a very difficult
stretch of road due to the very erratic nature of the cross winds
on the highway.

Winds will decrease this evening setting up a cooler and breezy
Sunday, though temperatures will still remain about 5 degrees
above average.

Monday looks to be another warm day, similar to yesterday, but a
few degrees cooler. Things again change quickly on Tuesday when a
cold front moves through bringing more rain and wind. Winds will
be breezy, and could be almost as potent as the ones we are
expected to feel later today.

After the front moves through Tuesday into Wednesday, models
depict the pattern changing. A broad trough with weak disturbances
moving through it will lead to a longer period of unsettled
weather, with chances for rain & snow on most days through next
weekend. With this change comes colder air: snow levels will be
low enough to cause mountain passes to be impacted by periods of
snow, and may be low enough for valleys to see snow or a wintry
mix at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
This morning`s rain showers will exit the area by around
28/1500z. KGPI and KMSO have the best shot of seeing rain from
this system, and could even see a stray lightning strike or two.
Winds will shift with the frontal passage and cause gusty
conditions. KBTM and KMSO will likely be the windiest, with
sustained 20+ kt winds and gusts to around 30kt being common
throughout the day. Winds will quiet down at nightfall as the
pressure gradient weakens.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 280947
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
347 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is crossing the region this morning
causing some showers and gusty winds. This fast-moving system
will be over the Continental Divide by noon MDT, leaving isolated
showers and very gusty winds behind it. The first bout of winds
will last less than an hour and will arrive with the front, then
winds will increase again this afternoon as the heat of the sun
mixes the lower atmosphere. Several areas have wind advisories.

A Lake Wind advisory has been issued for Flathead Lake where 20mph
plus winds are expected most of the day once the front passes.
This will cause difficult, choppy conditions for small and
under-powered water craft. Those planning on being on the lake
today should be prepared for a rough day.

Missoula and areas east, including Ovando, Avon, Butte, and
especially Garrison Junction to Deer Lodge can expect 20-30 mph
winds this afternoon with frequent gusts near 50 mph. Interstate
90 from Garrison Junction past Deer Lodge will be a very difficult
stretch of road due to the very erratic nature of the cross winds
on the highway.

Winds will decrease this evening setting up a cooler and breezy
Sunday, though temperatures will still remain about 5 degrees
above average.

Monday looks to be another warm day, similar to yesterday, but a
few degrees cooler. Things again change quickly on Tuesday when a
cold front moves through bringing more rain and wind. Winds will
be breezy, and could be almost as potent as the ones we are
expected to feel later today.

After the front moves through Tuesday into Wednesday, models
depict the pattern changing. A broad trough with weak disturbances
moving through it will lead to a longer period of unsettled
weather, with chances for rain & snow on most days through next
weekend. With this change comes colder air: snow levels will be
low enough to cause mountain passes to be impacted by periods of
snow, and may be low enough for valleys to see snow or a wintry
mix at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
This morning`s rain showers will exit the area by around
28/1500z. KGPI and KMSO have the best shot of seeing rain from
this system, and could even see a stray lightning strike or two.
Winds will shift with the frontal passage and cause gusty
conditions. KBTM and KMSO will likely be the windiest, with
sustained 20+ kt winds and gusts to around 30kt being common
throughout the day. Winds will quiet down at nightfall as the
pressure gradient weakens.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 280947
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
347 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is crossing the region this morning
causing some showers and gusty winds. This fast-moving system
will be over the Continental Divide by noon MDT, leaving isolated
showers and very gusty winds behind it. The first bout of winds
will last less than an hour and will arrive with the front, then
winds will increase again this afternoon as the heat of the sun
mixes the lower atmosphere. Several areas have wind advisories.

A Lake Wind advisory has been issued for Flathead Lake where 20mph
plus winds are expected most of the day once the front passes.
This will cause difficult, choppy conditions for small and
under-powered water craft. Those planning on being on the lake
today should be prepared for a rough day.

Missoula and areas east, including Ovando, Avon, Butte, and
especially Garrison Junction to Deer Lodge can expect 20-30 mph
winds this afternoon with frequent gusts near 50 mph. Interstate
90 from Garrison Junction past Deer Lodge will be a very difficult
stretch of road due to the very erratic nature of the cross winds
on the highway.

Winds will decrease this evening setting up a cooler and breezy
Sunday, though temperatures will still remain about 5 degrees
above average.

Monday looks to be another warm day, similar to yesterday, but a
few degrees cooler. Things again change quickly on Tuesday when a
cold front moves through bringing more rain and wind. Winds will
be breezy, and could be almost as potent as the ones we are
expected to feel later today.

After the front moves through Tuesday into Wednesday, models
depict the pattern changing. A broad trough with weak disturbances
moving through it will lead to a longer period of unsettled
weather, with chances for rain & snow on most days through next
weekend. With this change comes colder air: snow levels will be
low enough to cause mountain passes to be impacted by periods of
snow, and may be low enough for valleys to see snow or a wintry
mix at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
This morning`s rain showers will exit the area by around
28/1500z. KGPI and KMSO have the best shot of seeing rain from
this system, and could even see a stray lightning strike or two.
Winds will shift with the frontal passage and cause gusty
conditions. KBTM and KMSO will likely be the windiest, with
sustained 20+ kt winds and gusts to around 30kt being common
throughout the day. Winds will quiet down at nightfall as the
pressure gradient weakens.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 280947
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
347 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is crossing the region this morning
causing some showers and gusty winds. This fast-moving system
will be over the Continental Divide by noon MDT, leaving isolated
showers and very gusty winds behind it. The first bout of winds
will last less than an hour and will arrive with the front, then
winds will increase again this afternoon as the heat of the sun
mixes the lower atmosphere. Several areas have wind advisories.

A Lake Wind advisory has been issued for Flathead Lake where 20mph
plus winds are expected most of the day once the front passes.
This will cause difficult, choppy conditions for small and
under-powered water craft. Those planning on being on the lake
today should be prepared for a rough day.

Missoula and areas east, including Ovando, Avon, Butte, and
especially Garrison Junction to Deer Lodge can expect 20-30 mph
winds this afternoon with frequent gusts near 50 mph. Interstate
90 from Garrison Junction past Deer Lodge will be a very difficult
stretch of road due to the very erratic nature of the cross winds
on the highway.

Winds will decrease this evening setting up a cooler and breezy
Sunday, though temperatures will still remain about 5 degrees
above average.

Monday looks to be another warm day, similar to yesterday, but a
few degrees cooler. Things again change quickly on Tuesday when a
cold front moves through bringing more rain and wind. Winds will
be breezy, and could be almost as potent as the ones we are
expected to feel later today.

After the front moves through Tuesday into Wednesday, models
depict the pattern changing. A broad trough with weak disturbances
moving through it will lead to a longer period of unsettled
weather, with chances for rain & snow on most days through next
weekend. With this change comes colder air: snow levels will be
low enough to cause mountain passes to be impacted by periods of
snow, and may be low enough for valleys to see snow or a wintry
mix at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
This morning`s rain showers will exit the area by around
28/1500z. KGPI and KMSO have the best shot of seeing rain from
this system, and could even see a stray lightning strike or two.
Winds will shift with the frontal passage and cause gusty
conditions. KBTM and KMSO will likely be the windiest, with
sustained 20+ kt winds and gusts to around 30kt being common
throughout the day. Winds will quiet down at nightfall as the
pressure gradient weakens.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280857
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER
EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280857
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER
EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 280445
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
No updates to going forecast at this time. High pressure aloft is
keeping the area mostly clear. A Chinook arch of clouds is
lingering over the east slopes of the Rockies, but they are mostly
higher and thinner clouds. Showers are still on track to increase
over northwest Montana after midnight ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. With still some uncertainty regarding how strong
winds will be over the plains behind the cold front, have elected
to keep the High Wind highlights as is for now (Warning for Rocky
Mtn Front, Watch for rest of north central/central Montana). The
next shift can evaluate things further when the 00Z GFS forecast
model arrives. Regardless, Saturday will be a fairly windy day
across most of the area, and the current highlights reflect this.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
High pressure aloft continues to provide dry and stable conditions.
A chinook arch has developed in the lee of the Rockies and will
persist overnight. A disturbance aloft and associated cold front
will move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along
and behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front.
VFR conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become obscured
at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana
by Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a
cold front which will move through the forecast area Saturday
morning. Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into
Sunday evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front
will fall to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with
amounts up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty
westerly winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys
Saturday afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are
indicating some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have
gone with showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers
in the east to linger into the evening and have increased the
chances of precipitation from the previous forecast. Late
Saturday night into Sunday the forecast area will be under the
influence of a broad upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect
dry weather with the possible exception of the Rocky Mountain
Front where there could be a few rain or snow showers. There will
be gusty westerly winds Sunday but they will not be as strong as
those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning.
Elsewhere confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will
continue to ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend
across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night
through Tues morning, making for quiet weather conditions with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon. The first
element of a trend back toward more seasonal conditions is
forecast to occur on Tues as a quick-moving shortwave trof and
surface cold front cross the Divide by late morning. Forecast
models have been consistent for several runs in showing scattered
areas of light valley rain/mtn snow on Tues aftn/eve, with
slightly better chances of precip over southwest MT. Also, still
keeping an eye on Tues for possible high wind highlights for the
central and Hiline counties as projected winds aloft and surface
pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts of 50 mph or more.
The remainder of the week is basically an unsettled pattern with
persistent northwest flow aloft. A couple of additional
shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late Fri,
bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well- above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into
the low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 280254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No updates to going forecast at this time. High pressure aloft is
keeping the area mostly clear. A Chinook arch of clouds is
lingering over the east slopes of the Rockies, but they are mostly
higher and thinner clouds. Showers are still on track to increase
over northwest Montana after midnight ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. With still some uncertainty regarding how strong
winds will be over the plains behind the cold front, have elected
to keep the High Wind highlights as is for now (Warning for Rocky
Mtn Front, Watch for rest of north central/central Montana). The
next shift can evaluate things further when the 00Z GFS forecast
model arrives. Regardless, Saturday will be a fairly windy day
across most of the area, and the current highlights reflect this.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. A disturbance aloft and an associated cold front will
move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along and
behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become
obscured at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana
by Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a
cold front which will move through the forecast area Saturday
morning. Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into
Sunday evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front
will fall to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with
amounts up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty
westerly winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys
Saturday afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are
indicating some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have
gone with showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers
in the east to linger into the evening and have increased the
chances of precipitation from the previous forecast. Late
Saturday night into Sunday the forecast area will be under the
influence of a broad upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect
dry weather with the possible exception of the Rocky Mountain
Front where there could be a few rain or snow showers. There will
be gusty westerly winds Sunday but they will not be as strong as
those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning.
Elsewhere confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will
continue to ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend
across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night
through Tues morning, making for quiet weather conditions with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon. The first
element of a trend back toward more seasonal conditions is
forecast to occur on Tues as a quick-moving shortwave trof and
surface cold front cross the Divide by late morning. Forecast
models have been consistent for several runs in showing scattered
areas of light valley rain/mtn snow on Tues aftn/eve, with
slightly better chances of precip over southwest MT. Also, still
keeping an eye on Tues for possible high wind highlights for the
central and Hiline counties as projected winds aloft and surface
pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts of 50 mph or more.
The remainder of the week is basically an unsettled pattern with
persistent northwest flow aloft. A couple of additional
shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late Fri,
bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well- above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into
the low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No updates to going forecast at this time. High pressure aloft is
keeping the area mostly clear. A Chinook arch of clouds is
lingering over the east slopes of the Rockies, but they are mostly
higher and thinner clouds. Showers are still on track to increase
over northwest Montana after midnight ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. With still some uncertainty regarding how strong
winds will be over the plains behind the cold front, have elected
to keep the High Wind highlights as is for now (Warning for Rocky
Mtn Front, Watch for rest of north central/central Montana). The
next shift can evaluate things further when the 00Z GFS forecast
model arrives. Regardless, Saturday will be a fairly windy day
across most of the area, and the current highlights reflect this.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. A disturbance aloft and an associated cold front will
move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along and
behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become
obscured at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana
by Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a
cold front which will move through the forecast area Saturday
morning. Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into
Sunday evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front
will fall to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with
amounts up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty
westerly winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys
Saturday afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are
indicating some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have
gone with showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers
in the east to linger into the evening and have increased the
chances of precipitation from the previous forecast. Late
Saturday night into Sunday the forecast area will be under the
influence of a broad upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect
dry weather with the possible exception of the Rocky Mountain
Front where there could be a few rain or snow showers. There will
be gusty westerly winds Sunday but they will not be as strong as
those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning.
Elsewhere confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will
continue to ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend
across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night
through Tues morning, making for quiet weather conditions with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon. The first
element of a trend back toward more seasonal conditions is
forecast to occur on Tues as a quick-moving shortwave trof and
surface cold front cross the Divide by late morning. Forecast
models have been consistent for several runs in showing scattered
areas of light valley rain/mtn snow on Tues aftn/eve, with
slightly better chances of precip over southwest MT. Also, still
keeping an eye on Tues for possible high wind highlights for the
central and Hiline counties as projected winds aloft and surface
pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts of 50 mph or more.
The remainder of the week is basically an unsettled pattern with
persistent northwest flow aloft. A couple of additional
shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late Fri,
bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well- above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into
the low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 280254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No updates to going forecast at this time. High pressure aloft is
keeping the area mostly clear. A Chinook arch of clouds is
lingering over the east slopes of the Rockies, but they are mostly
higher and thinner clouds. Showers are still on track to increase
over northwest Montana after midnight ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. With still some uncertainty regarding how strong
winds will be over the plains behind the cold front, have elected
to keep the High Wind highlights as is for now (Warning for Rocky
Mtn Front, Watch for rest of north central/central Montana). The
next shift can evaluate things further when the 00Z GFS forecast
model arrives. Regardless, Saturday will be a fairly windy day
across most of the area, and the current highlights reflect this.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. A disturbance aloft and an associated cold front will
move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along and
behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become
obscured at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana
by Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a
cold front which will move through the forecast area Saturday
morning. Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into
Sunday evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front
will fall to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with
amounts up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty
westerly winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys
Saturday afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are
indicating some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have
gone with showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers
in the east to linger into the evening and have increased the
chances of precipitation from the previous forecast. Late
Saturday night into Sunday the forecast area will be under the
influence of a broad upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect
dry weather with the possible exception of the Rocky Mountain
Front where there could be a few rain or snow showers. There will
be gusty westerly winds Sunday but they will not be as strong as
those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning.
Elsewhere confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will
continue to ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend
across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night
through Tues morning, making for quiet weather conditions with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon. The first
element of a trend back toward more seasonal conditions is
forecast to occur on Tues as a quick-moving shortwave trof and
surface cold front cross the Divide by late morning. Forecast
models have been consistent for several runs in showing scattered
areas of light valley rain/mtn snow on Tues aftn/eve, with
slightly better chances of precip over southwest MT. Also, still
keeping an eye on Tues for possible high wind highlights for the
central and Hiline counties as projected winds aloft and surface
pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts of 50 mph or more.
The remainder of the week is basically an unsettled pattern with
persistent northwest flow aloft. A couple of additional
shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late Fri,
bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well- above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into
the low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 280254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
854 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
No updates to going forecast at this time. High pressure aloft is
keeping the area mostly clear. A Chinook arch of clouds is
lingering over the east slopes of the Rockies, but they are mostly
higher and thinner clouds. Showers are still on track to increase
over northwest Montana after midnight ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. With still some uncertainty regarding how strong
winds will be over the plains behind the cold front, have elected
to keep the High Wind highlights as is for now (Warning for Rocky
Mtn Front, Watch for rest of north central/central Montana). The
next shift can evaluate things further when the 00Z GFS forecast
model arrives. Regardless, Saturday will be a fairly windy day
across most of the area, and the current highlights reflect this.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. A disturbance aloft and an associated cold front will
move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along and
behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become
obscured at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana
by Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a
cold front which will move through the forecast area Saturday
morning. Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into
Sunday evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front
will fall to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains
of the Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with
amounts up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty
westerly winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys
Saturday afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are
indicating some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have
gone with showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers
in the east to linger into the evening and have increased the
chances of precipitation from the previous forecast. Late
Saturday night into Sunday the forecast area will be under the
influence of a broad upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect
dry weather with the possible exception of the Rocky Mountain
Front where there could be a few rain or snow showers. There will
be gusty westerly winds Sunday but they will not be as strong as
those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning.
Elsewhere confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will
continue to ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend
across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night
through Tues morning, making for quiet weather conditions with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon. The first
element of a trend back toward more seasonal conditions is
forecast to occur on Tues as a quick-moving shortwave trof and
surface cold front cross the Divide by late morning. Forecast
models have been consistent for several runs in showing scattered
areas of light valley rain/mtn snow on Tues aftn/eve, with
slightly better chances of precip over southwest MT. Also, still
keeping an eye on Tues for possible high wind highlights for the
central and Hiline counties as projected winds aloft and surface
pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts of 50 mph or more.
The remainder of the week is basically an unsettled pattern with
persistent northwest flow aloft. A couple of additional
shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late Fri,
bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well- above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into
the low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri. Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280244
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD
FOR A FEW HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP THE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S BUT WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO
DOWNSLOPE LATER WHICH WILL SLOW THE COOLING. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A
VERY WINDY DAY FOR THE REGION AND IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA. ITS ABOUT AS WARM AND DRY AS IT CAN GET FOR MARCH
AND THESE WINDS ARE GOING TO SUPPORT CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. THE RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON
UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
CREW GET A LOOK AT THE DATA BECAUSE THE AREA OF CONCERN COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. WE TRUST THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A VERY
WINDY ACTIVE DAY IS WELL KNOWN AND WILL NOT SURPRISE TO MANY
PEOPLE TOMORROW. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW FROM KBIL W BY 12Z SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS KLVM BEFORE 18Z SAT AND WILL REACH KBIL BY 21Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KMLS AROUND 22Z AND KSHR AROUND 23Z.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WSW AND WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W OR NW
WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON SAT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280244
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD
FOR A FEW HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP THE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S BUT WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO
DOWNSLOPE LATER WHICH WILL SLOW THE COOLING. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A
VERY WINDY DAY FOR THE REGION AND IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA. ITS ABOUT AS WARM AND DRY AS IT CAN GET FOR MARCH
AND THESE WINDS ARE GOING TO SUPPORT CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. THE RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON
UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
CREW GET A LOOK AT THE DATA BECAUSE THE AREA OF CONCERN COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. WE TRUST THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A VERY
WINDY ACTIVE DAY IS WELL KNOWN AND WILL NOT SURPRISE TO MANY
PEOPLE TOMORROW. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW FROM KBIL W BY 12Z SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS KLVM BEFORE 18Z SAT AND WILL REACH KBIL BY 21Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KMLS AROUND 22Z AND KSHR AROUND 23Z.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WSW AND WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W OR NW
WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON SAT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 280242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280242
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
842 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280240
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 280240
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.      PROTON

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA
SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ/SCT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possible exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. A disturbance aloft and an associated cold front will
move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along and
behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become obscured
at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 272340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possible exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. A disturbance aloft and an associated cold front will
move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along and
behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become obscured
at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 272340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possible exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
High pressure aloft will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. A disturbance aloft and an associated cold front will
move across the area after 15z with winds becoming gusty along and
behind the front. Showers will also develop behind the front. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions due to low
ceilings and precipitation after 18z. Mountains will become obscured
at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 272043
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST IS CRUISING EAST AND WILL CROSS MONTANA SATURDAY.
NAM AND GFS SIMILAR ON WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH SENSIBLE
WEATHER...ECMWF A BIT WETTER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.

WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID SHORTWAVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE THOUGH MID-DAY INTRODUCING THE WINDS. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS THIS
BETTER WITH QPF. STEEP MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERTORMS. WRAP-AROUND FEATURE THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS FOR THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUILDS IN WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER ALBERTA TO HELP WARM THINGS UP. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SATURDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CURRENT FORECAST TO 12Z FORECAST MODELS. MAIN CHANGE SEEN
WAS LOWER WINDS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. QPF/S LOOK TO BE BETTER
CONCENTRATED TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSED
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE VICINITY FOR SNOW CHANCES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
THREATEN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND. GAH/TFJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MARGINAL AT BEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S
OR HIGHER ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. MODELS DID BACK OFF ON
WINDS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT THINKING WAS TO DROP WATCH BUT WILL LET
NIGHT SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 272040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possibly exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possibly exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possibly exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possibly exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possibly exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 272040
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...The main weather feature during the
period continues to be an upper trough which is forecast to move
into western Montana Saturday morning and be in eastern Montana by
Saturday evening. Associated with the upper trough will be a cold
front which will move through the forecast area Saturday morning.
Precipitation will develop over the mountains of the Rocky
Mountain Front by Saturday morning then continue into Sunday
evening. Snow levels near 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall
to as low as 5000 feet during the afternoon. Mountains of the
Rocky Mountain Front will see several inches of snow with amounts
up to 6 inches possible. Scattered showers and gusty westerly
winds will occur over the plains and southwest valleys Saturday
afternoon as the trough moves into the area. Models are indicating
some better lift near the U.S. route 2 area so have gone with
showers likely for this particular area. Expect showers in the
east to linger into the evening and have increased the chances of
precipitation from the previous forecast. Late Saturday night into
Sunday the forecast area will be under the influence of a broad
upper ridge over the northwest U.S. Expect dry weather with the
possibly exception of the Rocky Mountain Front where there could
be a few rain or snow showers. There will be gusty westerly winds
Sunday but they will not be as strong as those of Saturday.

High winds...Confidence is high for the Rocky Mountain Front that
the high wind watch has been upgraded to a high warning. Elsewhere
confidence is marginal for a high wind event so will continue to
ride with the current high wind watch. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  60  37  63 /   0  30  20   0
CTB  45  56  37  60 /  10  60  10   0
HLN  43  60  36  63 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  37  63  29  63 /   0  30  10   0
WEY  33  55  22  53 /  10  40  20   0
DLN  42  60  31  61 /   0  30   0  10
HVR  41  63  33  67 /   0  60  30   0
LWT  47  62  35  63 /   0  50  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KMSO 272028
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
228 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Most of the morning fog and low stratus has lifted
from select valleys, allowing for plenty of afternoon sunshine
and warming temperatures. Most locations will see very mild temps
today, but the nice spring weather will be rather short-lived as
our next potent cold front enters from the west later tonight. In
advance of this frontal passage, there is the chance for some
lightning to occur across western portions of Clearwater and Idaho
counties later this evening, with a few isolated storms possible
in the Panhandle and into NW Montana as well.

By Saturday morning, the brunt of the cold front will be felt
across the remainder of the Northern Rockies, as mountain snowfall
and valley rain becomes widespread. More notably will be the
persistent gusty winds expected for all of central Idaho and
western Montana, which will begin quite early and last through
Saturday evening. Wind advisories have been issued for parts of
southwest Montana and west central Montana to account for gusts up
to 40 mph; even some brief periods of gusts to 50 mph. In
addition, Flathead Lake is in a lake wind advisory to cover gusty
winds and resultant increased wave activity, thus impacting those
with boating plans. Strong winds will die off around sunset
Saturday, with Sunday looking drier, cooler, and less windy.

The next weather system on tap for our region will arrive
Tuesday, with impacts possibly lasting through Friday. Right now,
it looks to be a cooler and wetter system, so a dreary-looking
week may be ahead of us.

&&

.AVIATION...A few cumulus buildups are possible over central Idaho
and far western Montana late this afternoon and evening ahead of a
weather disturbance moving into the region. This disturbance will
push a vigorous cold front through the area overnight and early
Saturday morning, with an abrupt shift to gusty westerly winds and
rain showers accompanying the front. Area terminals will likely see
sustained winds of 10-20 kts and gusts of 30 kts or more, with
the strongest winds at KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272028
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
228 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Most of the morning fog and low stratus has lifted
from select valleys, allowing for plenty of afternoon sunshine
and warming temperatures. Most locations will see very mild temps
today, but the nice spring weather will be rather short-lived as
our next potent cold front enters from the west later tonight. In
advance of this frontal passage, there is the chance for some
lightning to occur across western portions of Clearwater and Idaho
counties later this evening, with a few isolated storms possible
in the Panhandle and into NW Montana as well.

By Saturday morning, the brunt of the cold front will be felt
across the remainder of the Northern Rockies, as mountain snowfall
and valley rain becomes widespread. More notably will be the
persistent gusty winds expected for all of central Idaho and
western Montana, which will begin quite early and last through
Saturday evening. Wind advisories have been issued for parts of
southwest Montana and west central Montana to account for gusts up
to 40 mph; even some brief periods of gusts to 50 mph. In
addition, Flathead Lake is in a lake wind advisory to cover gusty
winds and resultant increased wave activity, thus impacting those
with boating plans. Strong winds will die off around sunset
Saturday, with Sunday looking drier, cooler, and less windy.

The next weather system on tap for our region will arrive
Tuesday, with impacts possibly lasting through Friday. Right now,
it looks to be a cooler and wetter system, so a dreary-looking
week may be ahead of us.

&&

.AVIATION...A few cumulus buildups are possible over central Idaho
and far western Montana late this afternoon and evening ahead of a
weather disturbance moving into the region. This disturbance will
push a vigorous cold front through the area overnight and early
Saturday morning, with an abrupt shift to gusty westerly winds and
rain showers accompanying the front. Area terminals will likely see
sustained winds of 10-20 kts and gusts of 30 kts or more, with
the strongest winds at KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 272028
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
228 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Most of the morning fog and low stratus has lifted
from select valleys, allowing for plenty of afternoon sunshine
and warming temperatures. Most locations will see very mild temps
today, but the nice spring weather will be rather short-lived as
our next potent cold front enters from the west later tonight. In
advance of this frontal passage, there is the chance for some
lightning to occur across western portions of Clearwater and Idaho
counties later this evening, with a few isolated storms possible
in the Panhandle and into NW Montana as well.

By Saturday morning, the brunt of the cold front will be felt
across the remainder of the Northern Rockies, as mountain snowfall
and valley rain becomes widespread. More notably will be the
persistent gusty winds expected for all of central Idaho and
western Montana, which will begin quite early and last through
Saturday evening. Wind advisories have been issued for parts of
southwest Montana and west central Montana to account for gusts up
to 40 mph; even some brief periods of gusts to 50 mph. In
addition, Flathead Lake is in a lake wind advisory to cover gusty
winds and resultant increased wave activity, thus impacting those
with boating plans. Strong winds will die off around sunset
Saturday, with Sunday looking drier, cooler, and less windy.

The next weather system on tap for our region will arrive
Tuesday, with impacts possibly lasting through Friday. Right now,
it looks to be a cooler and wetter system, so a dreary-looking
week may be ahead of us.

&&

.AVIATION...A few cumulus buildups are possible over central Idaho
and far western Montana late this afternoon and evening ahead of a
weather disturbance moving into the region. This disturbance will
push a vigorous cold front through the area overnight and early
Saturday morning, with an abrupt shift to gusty westerly winds and
rain showers accompanying the front. Area terminals will likely see
sustained winds of 10-20 kts and gusts of 30 kts or more, with
the strongest winds at KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 272028
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
228 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Most of the morning fog and low stratus has lifted
from select valleys, allowing for plenty of afternoon sunshine
and warming temperatures. Most locations will see very mild temps
today, but the nice spring weather will be rather short-lived as
our next potent cold front enters from the west later tonight. In
advance of this frontal passage, there is the chance for some
lightning to occur across western portions of Clearwater and Idaho
counties later this evening, with a few isolated storms possible
in the Panhandle and into NW Montana as well.

By Saturday morning, the brunt of the cold front will be felt
across the remainder of the Northern Rockies, as mountain snowfall
and valley rain becomes widespread. More notably will be the
persistent gusty winds expected for all of central Idaho and
western Montana, which will begin quite early and last through
Saturday evening. Wind advisories have been issued for parts of
southwest Montana and west central Montana to account for gusts up
to 40 mph; even some brief periods of gusts to 50 mph. In
addition, Flathead Lake is in a lake wind advisory to cover gusty
winds and resultant increased wave activity, thus impacting those
with boating plans. Strong winds will die off around sunset
Saturday, with Sunday looking drier, cooler, and less windy.

The next weather system on tap for our region will arrive
Tuesday, with impacts possibly lasting through Friday. Right now,
it looks to be a cooler and wetter system, so a dreary-looking
week may be ahead of us.

&&

.AVIATION...A few cumulus buildups are possible over central Idaho
and far western Montana late this afternoon and evening ahead of a
weather disturbance moving into the region. This disturbance will
push a vigorous cold front through the area overnight and early
Saturday morning, with an abrupt shift to gusty westerly winds and
rain showers accompanying the front. Area terminals will likely see
sustained winds of 10-20 kts and gusts of 30 kts or more, with
the strongest winds at KBTM.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 271611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 271611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KMSO 271554
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
954 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...Added several locations across western Montana to a wind
advisory for Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...There is high confidence that strong, gusty winds
will occur through the day Saturday and could impact several user
groups. Those with plans to be out boating on Flathead Lake will
encounter rough waters due to gusty winds, and those with outdoor
plans across southwest and portions of west central Montana will
also see persistent strong winds, beginning as early as Saturday
morning. High profile vehicles could encounter difficult driving,
especially from Drummond to Butte along Interstate 90. Gusts of 40
to 50 mph are possible in all aforementioned locations.

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has developed in northwest Montana including KGPI. Patchy fog
is also possible in north central Idaho and west central Montana
valleys which will last until around mid morning. High pressure
will build over Idaho and western Montana today so after fog lifts
and dissipates, conditions will be rather nice. The next weather
system will quickly move into the region late today with showers
and even thunderstorms possible in Idaho as early as this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into western Montana
overnight, followed by a cold front Saturday morning that will
bring gusty winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
SATURDAY...

DISCUSSION...Fog and low cloud cover has developed through
portions of northwest Montana which model guidance agree will lift
and dissipate beginning mid morning. Other than some passing
clouds early today conditions look to be very nice for this time
of year. High temperatures are still anticipated to reach near
record values.

The next weather system currently just off the west coast is
still forecast to quickly move into the Pacific Northwest late
today. There is plenty of support for showers with possibly
lightning to develop late this evening in north central Idaho that
will expand into western Montana overnight. The trough and cold
front will pass during Saturday morning and will be associated with
rain and increased winds. By the afternoon, showers will decrease
and winds will increase. Most locations will have gusty winds but
along the divide and I-90 corridor have the potential to be quite
gusty with widespread gusts 30-40 mph and even stronger between
Deer Lodge and Butte. Winds are expected to decrease during the
evening as the trough continues off to the east.

A few showers will develop on Sunday otherwise temperatures are
going to be just below normal.

Monday will be another nice spring day before a moist westerly
flow pattern sets up for next week. A cold front is still expected
to pass through the region on Tuesday. Gusty winds, high chances
for precipitation, and lowering snow levels are all expected as
the front passes. Snow levels will lower enough that at least
mountain passes could see light snow accumulation. The active
weather pattern next week will keep temperatures below average and
increased chances for precipitation.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 271554
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
954 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...Added several locations across western Montana to a wind
advisory for Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...There is high confidence that strong, gusty winds
will occur through the day Saturday and could impact several user
groups. Those with plans to be out boating on Flathead Lake will
encounter rough waters due to gusty winds, and those with outdoor
plans across southwest and portions of west central Montana will
also see persistent strong winds, beginning as early as Saturday
morning. High profile vehicles could encounter difficult driving,
especially from Drummond to Butte along Interstate 90. Gusts of 40
to 50 mph are possible in all aforementioned locations.

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has developed in northwest Montana including KGPI. Patchy fog
is also possible in north central Idaho and west central Montana
valleys which will last until around mid morning. High pressure
will build over Idaho and western Montana today so after fog lifts
and dissipates, conditions will be rather nice. The next weather
system will quickly move into the region late today with showers
and even thunderstorms possible in Idaho as early as this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into western Montana
overnight, followed by a cold front Saturday morning that will
bring gusty winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
SATURDAY...

DISCUSSION...Fog and low cloud cover has developed through
portions of northwest Montana which model guidance agree will lift
and dissipate beginning mid morning. Other than some passing
clouds early today conditions look to be very nice for this time
of year. High temperatures are still anticipated to reach near
record values.

The next weather system currently just off the west coast is
still forecast to quickly move into the Pacific Northwest late
today. There is plenty of support for showers with possibly
lightning to develop late this evening in north central Idaho that
will expand into western Montana overnight. The trough and cold
front will pass during Saturday morning and will be associated with
rain and increased winds. By the afternoon, showers will decrease
and winds will increase. Most locations will have gusty winds but
along the divide and I-90 corridor have the potential to be quite
gusty with widespread gusts 30-40 mph and even stronger between
Deer Lodge and Butte. Winds are expected to decrease during the
evening as the trough continues off to the east.

A few showers will develop on Sunday otherwise temperatures are
going to be just below normal.

Monday will be another nice spring day before a moist westerly
flow pattern sets up for next week. A cold front is still expected
to pass through the region on Tuesday. Gusty winds, high chances
for precipitation, and lowering snow levels are all expected as
the front passes. Snow levels will lower enough that at least
mountain passes could see light snow accumulation. The active
weather pattern next week will keep temperatures below average and
increased chances for precipitation.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Butte/Blackfoot
     Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KGGW 271546
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
946 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A TWEAK ON THE SKY AS SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE CENTRAL ZONES. HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND RH
WHERE ALSO TWEAKED TOWARD CURRENT CONDITIONS. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CONUS WITH A LONG-WAVE
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL DRIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY SHIFTS EAST
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z KGGW
SOUNDING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING. THE INCREASED HEIGHTS
WILL BRING ABOUT A RATHER WARM DAY...ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THE WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
WARM NIGHT.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CHANGE RAPIDLY. A WARM START TO THE DAY WILL
AND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. A STRONG NARROW WAVE AND STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE WAVE
QUICKLY CROSSES THE DIVIDE AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
AND QUICK-MOVING STORM BRINGS MOISTURE WITH IT. THEN THE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVES FULLY INTO NEMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
IS ENOUGH FOR SPC TO PUT OUR EASTERN ZONES IT THE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL TS. HOWEVER THE BEST AREA FOR GENERAL TS SEEMS
TO BE EAST OF OUR BORDER FOR NOW. MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN
WITH THE WAVE AND ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF QPF NOW.
AFTERNOON WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM MOISTENS
UP MORE. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ALSO. WINDS CONTINUE MARGINAL FOR HEADLINES...EXCEPT FOR SW
PHILLIPS COUNTY. WILL INSTALL A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THAT AREA FROM
NOON UNTIL 9PM. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ICE IS LEFT ON FORT PECK
LAKE...THE FIRST WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION FALLING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS CALMING DOWN AS THE TROUGH RAPIDLY
DEPARTS EAST. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE EXCELLENT FLYING
CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 THROUGH
TODAY... THEN SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNDOWN.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND.

GAH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 271546
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
946 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A TWEAK ON THE SKY AS SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE CENTRAL ZONES. HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND RH
WHERE ALSO TWEAKED TOWARD CURRENT CONDITIONS. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CONUS WITH A LONG-WAVE
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL DRIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY SHIFTS EAST
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z KGGW
SOUNDING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING. THE INCREASED HEIGHTS
WILL BRING ABOUT A RATHER WARM DAY...ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THE WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
WARM NIGHT.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CHANGE RAPIDLY. A WARM START TO THE DAY WILL
AND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. A STRONG NARROW WAVE AND STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE WAVE
QUICKLY CROSSES THE DIVIDE AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
AND QUICK-MOVING STORM BRINGS MOISTURE WITH IT. THEN THE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVES FULLY INTO NEMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
IS ENOUGH FOR SPC TO PUT OUR EASTERN ZONES IT THE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL TS. HOWEVER THE BEST AREA FOR GENERAL TS SEEMS
TO BE EAST OF OUR BORDER FOR NOW. MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN
WITH THE WAVE AND ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF QPF NOW.
AFTERNOON WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM MOISTENS
UP MORE. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ALSO. WINDS CONTINUE MARGINAL FOR HEADLINES...EXCEPT FOR SW
PHILLIPS COUNTY. WILL INSTALL A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THAT AREA FROM
NOON UNTIL 9PM. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ICE IS LEFT ON FORT PECK
LAKE...THE FIRST WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION FALLING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS CALMING DOWN AS THE TROUGH RAPIDLY
DEPARTS EAST. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE EXCELLENT FLYING
CONDITIONS.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 THROUGH
TODAY... THEN SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNDOWN.

EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...
AMD LTD TO VIS AND WIND.

GAH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271507
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IN OUR
FORECAST PROCESS TODAY WILL BE ON TOMORROW WITH WINDY TROUGH
PASSAGE. WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
OUR FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 071 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 065 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 071 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271507
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IN OUR
FORECAST PROCESS TODAY WILL BE ON TOMORROW WITH WINDY TROUGH
PASSAGE. WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
OUR FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 071 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 065 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 071 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271507
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IN OUR
FORECAST PROCESS TODAY WILL BE ON TOMORROW WITH WINDY TROUGH
PASSAGE. WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
OUR FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 071 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 065 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 071 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 271145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  72  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  71  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  57  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  69  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  73  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  71  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Hill...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 271145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR Conditions will prevail across the area for the TAF period.
Winds will become gusty this afternoon across the Rocky Mountain
Front and Adjacent high plains. High Clouds will persist through the
TAF and should increase towards the end of the period. Suk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  72  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  71  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  57  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  69  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  73  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  71  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Hill...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 270941
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring mid and high clouds
across the area overnight. As high pressure aloft builds over the
area Friday morning, clouds should decrease after 18z. Gusty west
winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and west winds
will become gusty again over the plains after 18z. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  72  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  71  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  57  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  69  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  73  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  71  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Hill...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270941
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring mid and high clouds
across the area overnight. As high pressure aloft builds over the
area Friday morning, clouds should decrease after 18z. Gusty west
winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and west winds
will become gusty again over the plains after 18z. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  72  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  71  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  57  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  69  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  73  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  71  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Hill...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270941
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring mid and high clouds
across the area overnight. As high pressure aloft builds over the
area Friday morning, clouds should decrease after 18z. Gusty west
winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and west winds
will become gusty again over the plains after 18z. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  72  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  71  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  57  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  69  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  73  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  71  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Hill...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270941
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring mid and high clouds
across the area overnight. As high pressure aloft builds over the
area Friday morning, clouds should decrease after 18z. Gusty west
winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and west winds
will become gusty again over the plains after 18z. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  72  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  71  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  57  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  69  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  73  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  71  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Fergus...Hill...Judith
Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 270937
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
337 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CONUS WITH A LONG-WAVE
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL DRIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY SHIFTS EAST
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z KGGW
SOUNDING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING. THE INCREASED HEIGHTS
WILL BRING ABOUT A RATHER WARM DAY...ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT THE WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
WARM NIGHT.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CHANGE RAPIDLY. A WARM START TO THE DAY WILL
AND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. A STRONG NARROW WAVE AND STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE WAVE
QUICKLY CROSSES THE DIVIDE AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER-LIKE
AND QUICK-MOVING STORM BRINGS MOISTURE WITH IT. THEN THE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVES FULLY INTO NEMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
IS ENOUGH FOR SPC TO PUT OUR EASTERN ZONES IT THE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL TS. HOWEVER THE BEST AREA FOR GENERAL TS SEEMS
TO BE EAST OF OUR BORDER FOR NOW. MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN
WITH THE WAVE AND ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF QPF NOW.
AFTERNOON WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM MOISTENS
UP MORE. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ALSO. WINDS CONTINUE MARGINAL FOR HEADLINES...EXCEPT FOR SW
PHILLIPS COUNTY. WILL INSTALL A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THAT AREA FROM
NOON UNTIL 9PM. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ICE IS LEFT ON FORT PECK
LAKE...THE FIRST WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION FALLING
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS CALMING DOWN AS THE TROUGH RAPIDLY
DEPARTS EAST. THICKNESS HEIGHTS DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN. SCT



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS FOLLOWING WEEKEND COLD FRONT FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER ALBERTA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOLDS BACK
UNTIL THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WRAPPING
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE TIGHT
GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC JET TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE AREA TODAY. CIGS WILL BE VFR.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
SWITCHING TO THE WEST TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE STILL EVOLVING ON THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN. SO FAR THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ARE BEST NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EAST OF FORT PECK LAKE.

THERE SEEMS LESS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS AND RH VALUES. THE
RED FLAG DECISION CHART PLACES FIRE WX ZONES 135...136 AND 137 AT
POSSIBLE FOR A FIRE WX HEADLINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS FROM NOON TO 9PM SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW








000
FXUS65 KMSO 270936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
336 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Fog and low cloud cover has developed through
portions of northwest Montana which model guidance agree will lift
and dissipate beginning mid morning. Other than some passing
clouds early today conditions look to be very nice for this time
of year. High temperatures are still anticipated to reach near
record values.

The next weather system currently just off the west coast is
still forecast to quickly move into the Pacific Northwest late
today. There is plenty of support for showers with possibly
lightning to develop late this evening in north central Idaho that
will expand into western Montana overnight. The trough and cold
front will pass during Saturday morning and will be associated with
rain and increased winds. By the afternoon, showers will decrease
and winds will increase. Most locations will have gusty winds but
along the divide and I-90 corridor have the potential to be quite
gusty with widespread gusts 30-40 mph and even stronger between
Deer Lodge and Butte. Winds are expected to decrease during the
evening as the trough continues off to the east.

A few showers will develop on Sunday otherwise temperatures are
going to be just below normal.

Monday will be another nice spring day before a moist westerly
flow pattern sets up for next week. A cold front is still expected
to pass through the region on Tuesday. Gusty winds, high chances
for precipitation, and lowering snow levels are all expected as
the front passes. Snow levels will lower enough that at least
mountain passes could see light snow accumulation. The active
weather pattern next week will keep temperatures below average and
increased chances for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has developed in northwest Montana including KGPI. Patchy fog
is also possible in north central Idaho and west central Montana
valleys which will last until around mid morning. High pressure
will build over Idaho and western Montana today so after fog lifts
and dissipates, conditions will be rather nice. The next weather
system will quickly move into the region late today with showers
and even thunderstorms possible in Idaho as early as this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into western Montana
overnight, followed by a cold front Saturday morning that will
bring gusty winds.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
336 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Fog and low cloud cover has developed through
portions of northwest Montana which model guidance agree will lift
and dissipate beginning mid morning. Other than some passing
clouds early today conditions look to be very nice for this time
of year. High temperatures are still anticipated to reach near
record values.

The next weather system currently just off the west coast is
still forecast to quickly move into the Pacific Northwest late
today. There is plenty of support for showers with possibly
lightning to develop late this evening in north central Idaho that
will expand into western Montana overnight. The trough and cold
front will pass during Saturday morning and will be associated with
rain and increased winds. By the afternoon, showers will decrease
and winds will increase. Most locations will have gusty winds but
along the divide and I-90 corridor have the potential to be quite
gusty with widespread gusts 30-40 mph and even stronger between
Deer Lodge and Butte. Winds are expected to decrease during the
evening as the trough continues off to the east.

A few showers will develop on Sunday otherwise temperatures are
going to be just below normal.

Monday will be another nice spring day before a moist westerly
flow pattern sets up for next week. A cold front is still expected
to pass through the region on Tuesday. Gusty winds, high chances
for precipitation, and lowering snow levels are all expected as
the front passes. Snow levels will lower enough that at least
mountain passes could see light snow accumulation. The active
weather pattern next week will keep temperatures below average and
increased chances for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has developed in northwest Montana including KGPI. Patchy fog
is also possible in north central Idaho and west central Montana
valleys which will last until around mid morning. High pressure
will build over Idaho and western Montana today so after fog lifts
and dissipates, conditions will be rather nice. The next weather
system will quickly move into the region late today with showers
and even thunderstorms possible in Idaho as early as this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into western Montana
overnight, followed by a cold front Saturday morning that will
bring gusty winds.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
336 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Fog and low cloud cover has developed through
portions of northwest Montana which model guidance agree will lift
and dissipate beginning mid morning. Other than some passing
clouds early today conditions look to be very nice for this time
of year. High temperatures are still anticipated to reach near
record values.

The next weather system currently just off the west coast is
still forecast to quickly move into the Pacific Northwest late
today. There is plenty of support for showers with possibly
lightning to develop late this evening in north central Idaho that
will expand into western Montana overnight. The trough and cold
front will pass during Saturday morning and will be associated with
rain and increased winds. By the afternoon, showers will decrease
and winds will increase. Most locations will have gusty winds but
along the divide and I-90 corridor have the potential to be quite
gusty with widespread gusts 30-40 mph and even stronger between
Deer Lodge and Butte. Winds are expected to decrease during the
evening as the trough continues off to the east.

A few showers will develop on Sunday otherwise temperatures are
going to be just below normal.

Monday will be another nice spring day before a moist westerly
flow pattern sets up for next week. A cold front is still expected
to pass through the region on Tuesday. Gusty winds, high chances
for precipitation, and lowering snow levels are all expected as
the front passes. Snow levels will lower enough that at least
mountain passes could see light snow accumulation. The active
weather pattern next week will keep temperatures below average and
increased chances for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has developed in northwest Montana including KGPI. Patchy fog
is also possible in north central Idaho and west central Montana
valleys which will last until around mid morning. High pressure
will build over Idaho and western Montana today so after fog lifts
and dissipates, conditions will be rather nice. The next weather
system will quickly move into the region late today with showers
and even thunderstorms possible in Idaho as early as this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into western Montana
overnight, followed by a cold front Saturday morning that will
bring gusty winds.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
336 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Fog and low cloud cover has developed through
portions of northwest Montana which model guidance agree will lift
and dissipate beginning mid morning. Other than some passing
clouds early today conditions look to be very nice for this time
of year. High temperatures are still anticipated to reach near
record values.

The next weather system currently just off the west coast is
still forecast to quickly move into the Pacific Northwest late
today. There is plenty of support for showers with possibly
lightning to develop late this evening in north central Idaho that
will expand into western Montana overnight. The trough and cold
front will pass during Saturday morning and will be associated with
rain and increased winds. By the afternoon, showers will decrease
and winds will increase. Most locations will have gusty winds but
along the divide and I-90 corridor have the potential to be quite
gusty with widespread gusts 30-40 mph and even stronger between
Deer Lodge and Butte. Winds are expected to decrease during the
evening as the trough continues off to the east.

A few showers will develop on Sunday otherwise temperatures are
going to be just below normal.

Monday will be another nice spring day before a moist westerly
flow pattern sets up for next week. A cold front is still expected
to pass through the region on Tuesday. Gusty winds, high chances
for precipitation, and lowering snow levels are all expected as
the front passes. Snow levels will lower enough that at least
mountain passes could see light snow accumulation. The active
weather pattern next week will keep temperatures below average and
increased chances for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has developed in northwest Montana including KGPI. Patchy fog
is also possible in north central Idaho and west central Montana
valleys which will last until around mid morning. High pressure
will build over Idaho and western Montana today so after fog lifts
and dissipates, conditions will be rather nice. The next weather
system will quickly move into the region late today with showers
and even thunderstorms possible in Idaho as early as this evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into western Montana
overnight, followed by a cold front Saturday morning that will
bring gusty winds.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 270445
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Updating just for minor tweaks to the forecast. The precip
probabilities were trimmed most areas overnight. There is a shower
persisting south of Helena. It appears to be weakening and likely
mostly virga. Otherwise trends in forecast look good. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring mid and high clouds
across the area overnight. As high pressure aloft builds over the
area Friday morning, clouds should decrease after 18z. Gusty west
winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and west winds
will become gusty again over the plains after 18z. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
Tonight through Saturday...The forecast area will be under the
influence of a strong upper ridge into Friday night. The upper ridge
which was over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon will move to
western Montana Friday and then to eastern Montana Friday night. The
main weather feature to deal with during the forecast period will be
an upper trough which will move into central Montana Saturday
afternoon or possibly evening. The associated cold front is expected
to reach the continental divide late Friday night then move through
the plains and southwest Montana Saturday morning. Snow levels from
8000 to 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall to between 6000 and
7000 feet behind the front. Snow accumulations up to several inches
are expected in the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. For the
plains and valleys expect scattered showers Saturday. Would have
considered going with higher chances of showers but models differ
with details of the upper trough.

High wind watch...Gusty winds are expected with and behind the
cold front Saturday but am not too excited about a high wind
event. Winds aloft are not all that great. In addition winds aloft
could be diminishing when there is maximum daytime heating.
Actually more of a problem with high winds could be over Blaine
County where there will be strong pressure rises behind a Canadian
cold front Saturday afternoon which moves into that area and also
where winds aloft could be possibly as high as 50 knots. At this
time do not have enough confidence to issue a high wind watch but
the situation will need to be monitored. As for the current high
wind watch confidence level for a high wind event is only around
30 percent at this time. Can not rule out a stray wind gust
approaching 50 knots with afternoon showers on Saturday.

Record temperatures...Still expect widespread high temperatures
Friday to be near record levels. However a portion of southwest
Montana and also a few locations in Fergus and Blaine Counties
could also be near record levels Saturday afternoon. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Period begins with high pressure
ridging redeveloping over the northern Rockies. Swaths of moisture
crossing through the top of the ridge will bring scattered cloud
cover, but no precipitation is expected from Sun thru Mon night.
Forecast models continue to indicate arrival of a quick-moving
shortwave trof on Tues that will produce areas of light valley
rain/mtn snow on Tue aftn/eve. Lower elevation sites along the
Rocky Mtn Front and parts of the Hi-Line and southwest MT could
see some rain/snow mix or light snow Tues night as colder air
mixes with waning moisture before the system moves off into
eastern MT. Central and Hi-Line counties could also see a period
of strong, gusty winds on Tues with the trof`s passage, resulting
from both mixing of 60 mph winds aloft and a sufficiently tight
surface pressure gradient. Models are in general agreement that
cool, moist northwest flow aloft will persist during the latter
half of the week with another Pacific shortwave trof coming into
the state on Thurs, accompanied by a mix of light rain/snow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  72  46  63 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  41  70  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
HLN  40  72  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  33  71  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  27  56  33  57 /  10   0   0  40
DLN  38  70  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  73  41  66 /   0   0   0  50
LWT  42  71  46  63 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KTFX 270445
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Updating just for minor tweaks to the forecast. The precip
probabilities were trimmed most areas overnight. There is a shower
persisting south of Helena. It appears to be weakening and likely
mostly virga. Otherwise trends in forecast look good. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring mid and high clouds
across the area overnight. As high pressure aloft builds over the
area Friday morning, clouds should decrease after 18z. Gusty west
winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and west winds
will become gusty again over the plains after 18z. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
Tonight through Saturday...The forecast area will be under the
influence of a strong upper ridge into Friday night. The upper ridge
which was over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon will move to
western Montana Friday and then to eastern Montana Friday night. The
main weather feature to deal with during the forecast period will be
an upper trough which will move into central Montana Saturday
afternoon or possibly evening. The associated cold front is expected
to reach the continental divide late Friday night then move through
the plains and southwest Montana Saturday morning. Snow levels from
8000 to 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall to between 6000 and
7000 feet behind the front. Snow accumulations up to several inches
are expected in the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. For the
plains and valleys expect scattered showers Saturday. Would have
considered going with higher chances of showers but models differ
with details of the upper trough.

High wind watch...Gusty winds are expected with and behind the
cold front Saturday but am not too excited about a high wind
event. Winds aloft are not all that great. In addition winds aloft
could be diminishing when there is maximum daytime heating.
Actually more of a problem with high winds could be over Blaine
County where there will be strong pressure rises behind a Canadian
cold front Saturday afternoon which moves into that area and also
where winds aloft could be possibly as high as 50 knots. At this
time do not have enough confidence to issue a high wind watch but
the situation will need to be monitored. As for the current high
wind watch confidence level for a high wind event is only around
30 percent at this time. Can not rule out a stray wind gust
approaching 50 knots with afternoon showers on Saturday.

Record temperatures...Still expect widespread high temperatures
Friday to be near record levels. However a portion of southwest
Montana and also a few locations in Fergus and Blaine Counties
could also be near record levels Saturday afternoon. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Period begins with high pressure
ridging redeveloping over the northern Rockies. Swaths of moisture
crossing through the top of the ridge will bring scattered cloud
cover, but no precipitation is expected from Sun thru Mon night.
Forecast models continue to indicate arrival of a quick-moving
shortwave trof on Tues that will produce areas of light valley
rain/mtn snow on Tue aftn/eve. Lower elevation sites along the
Rocky Mtn Front and parts of the Hi-Line and southwest MT could
see some rain/snow mix or light snow Tues night as colder air
mixes with waning moisture before the system moves off into
eastern MT. Central and Hi-Line counties could also see a period
of strong, gusty winds on Tues with the trof`s passage, resulting
from both mixing of 60 mph winds aloft and a sufficiently tight
surface pressure gradient. Models are in general agreement that
cool, moist northwest flow aloft will persist during the latter
half of the week with another Pacific shortwave trof coming into
the state on Thurs, accompanied by a mix of light rain/snow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  72  46  63 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  41  70  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
HLN  40  72  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  33  71  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  27  56  33  57 /  10   0   0  40
DLN  38  70  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  73  41  66 /   0   0   0  50
LWT  42  71  46  63 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls








000
FXUS65 KTFX 270445
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Updating just for minor tweaks to the forecast. The precip
probabilities were trimmed most areas overnight. There is a shower
persisting south of Helena. It appears to be weakening and likely
mostly virga. Otherwise trends in forecast look good. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring mid and high clouds
across the area overnight. As high pressure aloft builds over the
area Friday morning, clouds should decrease after 18z. Gusty west
winds will continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and west winds
will become gusty again over the plains after 18z. VFR conditions
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
Tonight through Saturday...The forecast area will be under the
influence of a strong upper ridge into Friday night. The upper ridge
which was over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon will move to
western Montana Friday and then to eastern Montana Friday night. The
main weather feature to deal with during the forecast period will be
an upper trough which will move into central Montana Saturday
afternoon or possibly evening. The associated cold front is expected
to reach the continental divide late Friday night then move through
the plains and southwest Montana Saturday morning. Snow levels from
8000 to 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall to between 6000 and
7000 feet behind the front. Snow accumulations up to several inches
are expected in the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. For the
plains and valleys expect scattered showers Saturday. Would have
considered going with higher chances of showers but models differ
with details of the upper trough.

High wind watch...Gusty winds are expected with and behind the
cold front Saturday but am not too excited about a high wind
event. Winds aloft are not all that great. In addition winds aloft
could be diminishing when there is maximum daytime heating.
Actually more of a problem with high winds could be over Blaine
County where there will be strong pressure rises behind a Canadian
cold front Saturday afternoon which moves into that area and also
where winds aloft could be possibly as high as 50 knots. At this
time do not have enough confidence to issue a high wind watch but
the situation will need to be monitored. As for the current high
wind watch confidence level for a high wind event is only around
30 percent at this time. Can not rule out a stray wind gust
approaching 50 knots with afternoon showers on Saturday.

Record temperatures...Still expect widespread high temperatures
Friday to be near record levels. However a portion of southwest
Montana and also a few locations in Fergus and Blaine Counties
could also be near record levels Saturday afternoon. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Period begins with high pressure
ridging redeveloping over the northern Rockies. Swaths of moisture
crossing through the top of the ridge will bring scattered cloud
cover, but no precipitation is expected from Sun thru Mon night.
Forecast models continue to indicate arrival of a quick-moving
shortwave trof on Tues that will produce areas of light valley
rain/mtn snow on Tue aftn/eve. Lower elevation sites along the
Rocky Mtn Front and parts of the Hi-Line and southwest MT could
see some rain/snow mix or light snow Tues night as colder air
mixes with waning moisture before the system moves off into
eastern MT. Central and Hi-Line counties could also see a period
of strong, gusty winds on Tues with the trof`s passage, resulting
from both mixing of 60 mph winds aloft and a sufficiently tight
surface pressure gradient. Models are in general agreement that
cool, moist northwest flow aloft will persist during the latter
half of the week with another Pacific shortwave trof coming into
the state on Thurs, accompanied by a mix of light rain/snow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  72  46  63 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  41  70  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
HLN  40  72  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  33  71  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  27  56  33  57 /  10   0   0  40
DLN  38  70  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  73  41  66 /   0   0   0  50
LWT  42  71  46  63 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







000
FXUS65 KGGW 270403 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1003 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THEREFORE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LOCALLY. BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT TO BRING IN WARMER AIR...WHICH IS
VERY EVIDENT ON THE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE 40S AND UPPER 30S...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE LAST NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MATCHING THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE FEW CHANGES WERE MADE...MAINLY TO WIND GRIDS. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE COLD TROUGH SETS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE WARM RIDGE RESIDES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE HANGING IN TOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE DAM TO THE ND BORDER
AND AREAS NORTH OF IT AS EXTRA SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM EARLIER
MELTS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ENTER INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING MAY NOT QUITE TOP OUT AS EXPECTED THOUGH.

SATURDAY...INITIALLY A WARM DAY. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HOT ON THE
RIDGE HEALS WILL SPIRAL UP A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND
700 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL FORM...
STRENGTHEN...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME VERY STRONG DUE
TO THE TIGHT PGF AND EXTRA CAA BEHIND IT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT BUT TOTALS ARE ANEMIC
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AND INCH FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE QUICK
PASSAGE. GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE BUT HONED IN ON WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...GETTING MORE DETAILED. DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THINGS
WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM. BLENDED TEMPS/WINDS AND SKY A BIT TO NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE VFR.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
SWITCHING TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270403 AAB
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1003 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THEREFORE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LOCALLY. BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT TO BRING IN WARMER AIR...WHICH IS
VERY EVIDENT ON THE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE 40S AND UPPER 30S...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE LAST NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MATCHING THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE FEW CHANGES WERE MADE...MAINLY TO WIND GRIDS. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE COLD TROUGH SETS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE WARM RIDGE RESIDES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE HANGING IN TOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE DAM TO THE ND BORDER
AND AREAS NORTH OF IT AS EXTRA SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM EARLIER
MELTS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ENTER INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING MAY NOT QUITE TOP OUT AS EXPECTED THOUGH.

SATURDAY...INITIALLY A WARM DAY. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HOT ON THE
RIDGE HEALS WILL SPIRAL UP A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND
700 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL FORM...
STRENGTHEN...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME VERY STRONG DUE
TO THE TIGHT PGF AND EXTRA CAA BEHIND IT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT BUT TOTALS ARE ANEMIC
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AND INCH FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE QUICK
PASSAGE. GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE BUT HONED IN ON WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...GETTING MORE DETAILED. DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THINGS
WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM. BLENDED TEMPS/WINDS AND SKY A BIT TO NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE VFR.

AREA WINDS: SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
SWITCHING TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270307
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Updating just for minor tweaks to the forecast. The precip
probabilities were trimmed most areas overnight. There is a shower
persisting south of Helena. It appears to be weakening and likely
mostly virga. Otherwise trends in forecast look good. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to move across the area but
as high pressure aloft builds, clouds should decrease after 18z Friday.
Gusty west winds will slowly decrease after 02z but will increase
again after 18z Friday with the strongest gusts along the Rocky
Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
Tonight through Saturday...The forecast area will be under the
influence of a strong upper ridge into Friday night. The upper ridge
which was over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon will move to
western Montana Friday and then to eastern Montana Friday night. The
main weather feature to deal with during the forecast period will be
an upper trough which will move into central Montana Saturday
afternoon or possibly evening. The associated cold front is expected
to reach the continental divide late Friday night then move through
the plains and southwest Montana Saturday morning. Snow levels from
8000 to 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall to between 6000 and
7000 feet behind the front. Snow accumulations up to several inches
are expected in the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. For the
plains and valleys expect scattered showers Saturday. Would have
considered going with higher chances of showers but models differ
with details of the upper trough.

High wind watch...Gusty winds are expected with and behind the
cold front Saturday but am not too excited about a high wind
event. Winds aloft are not all that great. In addition winds aloft
could be diminishing when there is maximum daytime heating.
Actually more of a problem with high winds could be over Blaine
County where there will be strong pressure rises behind a Canadian
cold front Saturday afternoon which moves into that area and also
where winds aloft could be possibly as high as 50 knots. At this
time do not have enough confidence to issue a high wind watch but
the situation will need to be monitored. As for the current high
wind watch confidence level for a high wind event is only around
30 percent at this time. Can not rule out a stray wind gust
approaching 50 knots with afternoon showers on Saturday.

Record temperatures...Still expect widespread high temperatures
Friday to be near record levels. However a portion of southwest
Montana and also a few locations in Fergus and Blaine Counties
could also be near record levels Saturday afternoon. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Period begins with high pressure
ridging redeveloping over the northern Rockies. Swaths of moisture
crossing through the top of the ridge will bring scattered cloud
cover, but no precipitation is expected from Sun thru Mon night.
Forecast models continue to indicate arrival of a quick-moving
shortwave trof on Tues that will produce areas of light valley
rain/mtn snow on Tue aftn/eve. Lower elevation sites along the
Rocky Mtn Front and parts of the Hi-Line and southwest MT could
see some rain/snow mix or light snow Tues night as colder air
mixes with waning moisture before the system moves off into
eastern MT. Central and Hi-Line counties could also see a period
of strong, gusty winds on Tues with the trof`s passage, resulting
from both mixing of 60 mph winds aloft and a sufficiently tight
surface pressure gradient. Models are in general agreement that
cool, moist northwest flow aloft will persist during the latter
half of the week with another Pacific shortwave trof coming into
the state on Thurs, accompanied by a mix of light rain/snow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  72  46  63 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  41  70  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
HLN  40  72  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  33  71  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  27  56  33  57 /  10   0   0  40
DLN  38  70  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  73  41  66 /   0   0   0  50
LWT  42  71  46  63 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls






000
FXUS65 KTFX 270307
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Updating just for minor tweaks to the forecast. The precip
probabilities were trimmed most areas overnight. There is a shower
persisting south of Helena. It appears to be weakening and likely
mostly virga. Otherwise trends in forecast look good. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to move across the area but
as high pressure aloft builds, clouds should decrease after 18z Friday.
Gusty west winds will slowly decrease after 02z but will increase
again after 18z Friday with the strongest gusts along the Rocky
Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
Tonight through Saturday...The forecast area will be under the
influence of a strong upper ridge into Friday night. The upper ridge
which was over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon will move to
western Montana Friday and then to eastern Montana Friday night. The
main weather feature to deal with during the forecast period will be
an upper trough which will move into central Montana Saturday
afternoon or possibly evening. The associated cold front is expected
to reach the continental divide late Friday night then move through
the plains and southwest Montana Saturday morning. Snow levels from
8000 to 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall to between 6000 and
7000 feet behind the front. Snow accumulations up to several inches
are expected in the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. For the
plains and valleys expect scattered showers Saturday. Would have
considered going with higher chances of showers but models differ
with details of the upper trough.

High wind watch...Gusty winds are expected with and behind the
cold front Saturday but am not too excited about a high wind
event. Winds aloft are not all that great. In addition winds aloft
could be diminishing when there is maximum daytime heating.
Actually more of a problem with high winds could be over Blaine
County where there will be strong pressure rises behind a Canadian
cold front Saturday afternoon which moves into that area and also
where winds aloft could be possibly as high as 50 knots. At this
time do not have enough confidence to issue a high wind watch but
the situation will need to be monitored. As for the current high
wind watch confidence level for a high wind event is only around
30 percent at this time. Can not rule out a stray wind gust
approaching 50 knots with afternoon showers on Saturday.

Record temperatures...Still expect widespread high temperatures
Friday to be near record levels. However a portion of southwest
Montana and also a few locations in Fergus and Blaine Counties
could also be near record levels Saturday afternoon. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Period begins with high pressure
ridging redeveloping over the northern Rockies. Swaths of moisture
crossing through the top of the ridge will bring scattered cloud
cover, but no precipitation is expected from Sun thru Mon night.
Forecast models continue to indicate arrival of a quick-moving
shortwave trof on Tues that will produce areas of light valley
rain/mtn snow on Tue aftn/eve. Lower elevation sites along the
Rocky Mtn Front and parts of the Hi-Line and southwest MT could
see some rain/snow mix or light snow Tues night as colder air
mixes with waning moisture before the system moves off into
eastern MT. Central and Hi-Line counties could also see a period
of strong, gusty winds on Tues with the trof`s passage, resulting
from both mixing of 60 mph winds aloft and a sufficiently tight
surface pressure gradient. Models are in general agreement that
cool, moist northwest flow aloft will persist during the latter
half of the week with another Pacific shortwave trof coming into
the state on Thurs, accompanied by a mix of light rain/snow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  72  46  63 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  41  70  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
HLN  40  72  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  33  71  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  27  56  33  57 /  10   0   0  40
DLN  38  70  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  73  41  66 /   0   0   0  50
LWT  42  71  46  63 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KTFX 270307
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
907 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Updating just for minor tweaks to the forecast. The precip
probabilities were trimmed most areas overnight. There is a shower
persisting south of Helena. It appears to be weakening and likely
mostly virga. Otherwise trends in forecast look good. db

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to move across the area but
as high pressure aloft builds, clouds should decrease after 18z Friday.
Gusty west winds will slowly decrease after 02z but will increase
again after 18z Friday with the strongest gusts along the Rocky
Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015/
Tonight through Saturday...The forecast area will be under the
influence of a strong upper ridge into Friday night. The upper ridge
which was over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon will move to
western Montana Friday and then to eastern Montana Friday night. The
main weather feature to deal with during the forecast period will be
an upper trough which will move into central Montana Saturday
afternoon or possibly evening. The associated cold front is expected
to reach the continental divide late Friday night then move through
the plains and southwest Montana Saturday morning. Snow levels from
8000 to 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall to between 6000 and
7000 feet behind the front. Snow accumulations up to several inches
are expected in the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. For the
plains and valleys expect scattered showers Saturday. Would have
considered going with higher chances of showers but models differ
with details of the upper trough.

High wind watch...Gusty winds are expected with and behind the
cold front Saturday but am not too excited about a high wind
event. Winds aloft are not all that great. In addition winds aloft
could be diminishing when there is maximum daytime heating.
Actually more of a problem with high winds could be over Blaine
County where there will be strong pressure rises behind a Canadian
cold front Saturday afternoon which moves into that area and also
where winds aloft could be possibly as high as 50 knots. At this
time do not have enough confidence to issue a high wind watch but
the situation will need to be monitored. As for the current high
wind watch confidence level for a high wind event is only around
30 percent at this time. Can not rule out a stray wind gust
approaching 50 knots with afternoon showers on Saturday.

Record temperatures...Still expect widespread high temperatures
Friday to be near record levels. However a portion of southwest
Montana and also a few locations in Fergus and Blaine Counties
could also be near record levels Saturday afternoon. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Period begins with high pressure
ridging redeveloping over the northern Rockies. Swaths of moisture
crossing through the top of the ridge will bring scattered cloud
cover, but no precipitation is expected from Sun thru Mon night.
Forecast models continue to indicate arrival of a quick-moving
shortwave trof on Tues that will produce areas of light valley
rain/mtn snow on Tue aftn/eve. Lower elevation sites along the
Rocky Mtn Front and parts of the Hi-Line and southwest MT could
see some rain/snow mix or light snow Tues night as colder air
mixes with waning moisture before the system moves off into
eastern MT. Central and Hi-Line counties could also see a period
of strong, gusty winds on Tues with the trof`s passage, resulting
from both mixing of 60 mph winds aloft and a sufficiently tight
surface pressure gradient. Models are in general agreement that
cool, moist northwest flow aloft will persist during the latter
half of the week with another Pacific shortwave trof coming into
the state on Thurs, accompanied by a mix of light rain/snow.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  72  46  63 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  41  70  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
HLN  40  72  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  33  71  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  27  56  33  57 /  10   0   0  40
DLN  38  70  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  73  41  66 /   0   0   0  50
LWT  42  71  46  63 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





000
FXUS65 KGGW 270305 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THEREFORE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LOCALLY. BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT TO BRING IN WARMER AIR...WHICH IS
VERY EVIDENT ON THE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE 40S AND UPPER 30S...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE LAST NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MATCHING THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE FEW CHANGES WERE MADE...MAINLY TO WIND GRIDS. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE COLD TROUGH SETS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE WARM RIDGE RESIDES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE HANGING IN TOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE DAM TO THE ND BORDER
AND AREAS NORTH OF IT AS EXTRA SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM EARLIER
MELTS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ENTER INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING MAY NOT QUITE TOP OUT AS EXPECTED THOUGH.

SATURDAY...INITIALLY A WARM DAY. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HOT ON THE
RIDGE HEALS WILL SPIRAL UP A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND
700 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL FORM...
STRENGTHEN...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME VERY STRONG DUE
TO THE TIGHT PGF AND EXTRA CAA BEHIND IT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT BUT TOTALS ARE ANEMIC
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AND INCH FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE QUICK
PASSAGE. GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE BUT HONED IN ON WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...GETTING MORE DETAILED. DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THINGS
WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM. BLENDED TEMPS/WINDS AND SKY A BIT TO NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE KOLF AREA TONIGHT OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL
BE VFR.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






000
FXUS65 KGGW 270305 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THEREFORE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LOCALLY. BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT TO BRING IN WARMER AIR...WHICH IS
VERY EVIDENT ON THE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE 40S AND UPPER 30S...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE LAST NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MATCHING THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE FEW CHANGES WERE MADE...MAINLY TO WIND GRIDS. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE WEAK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A LARGE COLD TROUGH SETS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LARGE WARM RIDGE RESIDES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES UNDER THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE HANGING IN TOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE DAM TO THE ND BORDER
AND AREAS NORTH OF IT AS EXTRA SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM EARLIER
MELTS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ENTER INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING MAY NOT QUITE TOP OUT AS EXPECTED THOUGH.

SATURDAY...INITIALLY A WARM DAY. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE
EAST...THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HOT ON THE
RIDGE HEALS WILL SPIRAL UP A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND
700 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL FORM...
STRENGTHEN...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME VERY STRONG DUE
TO THE TIGHT PGF AND EXTRA CAA BEHIND IT. POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT BUT TOTALS ARE ANEMIC
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AND INCH FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE QUICK
PASSAGE. GAH


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE BUT HONED IN ON WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...GETTING MORE DETAILED. DIDN/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THINGS
WITH TUESDAY SYSTEM. BLENDED TEMPS/WINDS AND SKY A BIT TO NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE BUT THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. RESULT WILL BE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MOSTLY VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A NW TO SE STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED IFR/MVFR
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE KOLF AREA TONIGHT OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL
BE VFR.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270254
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT AND FAST MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS STAYING DRY.
UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPRINKLES AS OPPOSED TO
SHOWERS BECAUSE DO NOT EXPECT TO MANY PLACES TO GET MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SOMEWHAT BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING 500MB
HEIGHTS IN THE WEST AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY/BAROCLINICITY
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW
POPS IN THE EAST AND DOWN TOWARD THE BIG HORNS. ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING SHOULD SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL KICK IN
FULL FORCE FRIDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RECORD TEMPERATURES AT
LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WEST AS WE WARM UP AND MIX DOWN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY. TEMPS AT 850MB SUGGEST
ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE YET TO
RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...AS THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS
THE SLOWEST OF ANY PROGGS. THE NAM SUPPORTS THE FASTER GFS. I HAVE
BASICALLY STUCK WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME AS WE ARE STILL TWO
DAYS OUT AND NO INDICATIONS WHICH WAY TO LEAN. THIS MEANS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT BILLINGS /3-4 PM/. THE
GFS IS ALSO INDICATING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REALLY STRONG POST FRONTAL GUSTS IN THE
BILLINGS AREA /60 MPH/. I AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE JET WINDS
ALOFT /LIMITING DOWNWARD MOTION/ THOUGH SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE WEST MAY BE STRONGEST
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON RATHER THAN LIVINGSTON WHERE THE
DIRECTION IS TOO WESTERLY TO HIT PROLONGED HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HARLOWTON HIT HIGH WIND CRITERIA
BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH MODELS...SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS.

QPF PROGGS ALL SHOW DECENT PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD TO ME AS Q-VECTOR FORCING IS PRETTY
STRONG AND EVEN QUITE SHARP ON THE ECMWF. I DECIDED NOT TO ADD
THUNDER TO ANY ZONES YET DUE TO THE SHORT WINDOW FOR BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT WE WILL
EVALUATE AGAIN TOMORROW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN OUR
EASTERN SECTIONS.

TO SUMMARIZE...SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY IN THE WEST...TURNING
VERY WINDY IN THE EAST BY EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT
SO WINDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY FOR MOST AREAS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. FORECAST LOOKS DRY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT ADVANCING UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL BE VERY CRUCIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS AN
EARLIER PASSAGE WOULD CAUSE COOLER THAN FORECAST HIGHS. THE GFS
WAS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEREFORE WARMER. DID
RAISE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS EVEN THE ECMWF
WAS SLOW TO GET THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

LOOKS MORE LIKE A WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
SLIDING OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. DID RAISE POPS SOME FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY. SYSTEM MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
DRIER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH. THURSDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN. MODEL DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH
THE ECMWF DIGGING ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS PROVIDING A BETTER
CHANCE OF TURNING WET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT THIS OUT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WILL GET SOME POPS IN
THERE AS THE PATTERN DOES LOOK UNSETTLED. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OVER AREAS E AND S OF KBIL TONIGHT. THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY W SURFACE WINDS WILL
PERSIST W OF KBIL TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRI. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KLVM TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/073 047/072 040/065 041/070 045/068 038/058 036/054
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    23/W
LVM 042/072 045/065 035/065 040/068 042/063 031/055 029/050
    00/N    04/W    11/B    00/U    04/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 039/075 040/075 037/066 035/072 039/072 036/059 033/056
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 041/070 042/075 037/063 037/069 038/072 037/057 032/054
    10/E    04/W    20/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    22/W
4BQ 039/070 039/078 036/064 036/070 039/075 035/058 032/054
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/N    31/N    12/W
BHK 034/064 037/072 035/061 033/066 037/071 035/054 030/052
    20/E    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    31/N    12/W
SHR 039/070 040/075 036/065 035/070 038/073 034/055 032/051
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270254
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT AND FAST MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS STAYING DRY.
UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPRINKLES AS OPPOSED TO
SHOWERS BECAUSE DO NOT EXPECT TO MANY PLACES TO GET MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SOMEWHAT BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING 500MB
HEIGHTS IN THE WEST AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY/BAROCLINICITY
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW
POPS IN THE EAST AND DOWN TOWARD THE BIG HORNS. ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING SHOULD SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL KICK IN
FULL FORCE FRIDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RECORD TEMPERATURES AT
LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WEST AS WE WARM UP AND MIX DOWN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY. TEMPS AT 850MB SUGGEST
ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE YET TO
RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...AS THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS
THE SLOWEST OF ANY PROGGS. THE NAM SUPPORTS THE FASTER GFS. I HAVE
BASICALLY STUCK WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME AS WE ARE STILL TWO
DAYS OUT AND NO INDICATIONS WHICH WAY TO LEAN. THIS MEANS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT BILLINGS /3-4 PM/. THE
GFS IS ALSO INDICATING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REALLY STRONG POST FRONTAL GUSTS IN THE
BILLINGS AREA /60 MPH/. I AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE JET WINDS
ALOFT /LIMITING DOWNWARD MOTION/ THOUGH SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE WEST MAY BE STRONGEST
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON RATHER THAN LIVINGSTON WHERE THE
DIRECTION IS TOO WESTERLY TO HIT PROLONGED HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HARLOWTON HIT HIGH WIND CRITERIA
BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH MODELS...SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS.

QPF PROGGS ALL SHOW DECENT PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD TO ME AS Q-VECTOR FORCING IS PRETTY
STRONG AND EVEN QUITE SHARP ON THE ECMWF. I DECIDED NOT TO ADD
THUNDER TO ANY ZONES YET DUE TO THE SHORT WINDOW FOR BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT WE WILL
EVALUATE AGAIN TOMORROW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN OUR
EASTERN SECTIONS.

TO SUMMARIZE...SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY IN THE WEST...TURNING
VERY WINDY IN THE EAST BY EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT
SO WINDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY FOR MOST AREAS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. FORECAST LOOKS DRY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT ADVANCING UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL BE VERY CRUCIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS AN
EARLIER PASSAGE WOULD CAUSE COOLER THAN FORECAST HIGHS. THE GFS
WAS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEREFORE WARMER. DID
RAISE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS EVEN THE ECMWF
WAS SLOW TO GET THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

LOOKS MORE LIKE A WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
SLIDING OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. DID RAISE POPS SOME FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY. SYSTEM MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
DRIER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH. THURSDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN. MODEL DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH
THE ECMWF DIGGING ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS PROVIDING A BETTER
CHANCE OF TURNING WET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT THIS OUT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WILL GET SOME POPS IN
THERE AS THE PATTERN DOES LOOK UNSETTLED. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OVER AREAS E AND S OF KBIL TONIGHT. THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY W SURFACE WINDS WILL
PERSIST W OF KBIL TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRI. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KLVM TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/073 047/072 040/065 041/070 045/068 038/058 036/054
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    23/W
LVM 042/072 045/065 035/065 040/068 042/063 031/055 029/050
    00/N    04/W    11/B    00/U    04/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 039/075 040/075 037/066 035/072 039/072 036/059 033/056
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 041/070 042/075 037/063 037/069 038/072 037/057 032/054
    10/E    04/W    20/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    22/W
4BQ 039/070 039/078 036/064 036/070 039/075 035/058 032/054
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/N    31/N    12/W
BHK 034/064 037/072 035/061 033/066 037/071 035/054 030/052
    20/E    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    31/N    12/W
SHR 039/070 040/075 036/065 035/070 038/073 034/055 032/051
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270254
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT AND FAST MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS STAYING DRY.
UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPRINKLES AS OPPOSED TO
SHOWERS BECAUSE DO NOT EXPECT TO MANY PLACES TO GET MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SOMEWHAT BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING 500MB
HEIGHTS IN THE WEST AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY/BAROCLINICITY
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW
POPS IN THE EAST AND DOWN TOWARD THE BIG HORNS. ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING SHOULD SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL KICK IN
FULL FORCE FRIDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RECORD TEMPERATURES AT
LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WEST AS WE WARM UP AND MIX DOWN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY. TEMPS AT 850MB SUGGEST
ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE YET TO
RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...AS THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS
THE SLOWEST OF ANY PROGGS. THE NAM SUPPORTS THE FASTER GFS. I HAVE
BASICALLY STUCK WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME AS WE ARE STILL TWO
DAYS OUT AND NO INDICATIONS WHICH WAY TO LEAN. THIS MEANS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT BILLINGS /3-4 PM/. THE
GFS IS ALSO INDICATING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REALLY STRONG POST FRONTAL GUSTS IN THE
BILLINGS AREA /60 MPH/. I AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE JET WINDS
ALOFT /LIMITING DOWNWARD MOTION/ THOUGH SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE WEST MAY BE STRONGEST
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON RATHER THAN LIVINGSTON WHERE THE
DIRECTION IS TOO WESTERLY TO HIT PROLONGED HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HARLOWTON HIT HIGH WIND CRITERIA
BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH MODELS...SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS.

QPF PROGGS ALL SHOW DECENT PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD TO ME AS Q-VECTOR FORCING IS PRETTY
STRONG AND EVEN QUITE SHARP ON THE ECMWF. I DECIDED NOT TO ADD
THUNDER TO ANY ZONES YET DUE TO THE SHORT WINDOW FOR BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT WE WILL
EVALUATE AGAIN TOMORROW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN OUR
EASTERN SECTIONS.

TO SUMMARIZE...SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY IN THE WEST...TURNING
VERY WINDY IN THE EAST BY EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT
SO WINDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY FOR MOST AREAS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. FORECAST LOOKS DRY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT ADVANCING UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL BE VERY CRUCIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS AN
EARLIER PASSAGE WOULD CAUSE COOLER THAN FORECAST HIGHS. THE GFS
WAS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEREFORE WARMER. DID
RAISE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS EVEN THE ECMWF
WAS SLOW TO GET THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

LOOKS MORE LIKE A WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
SLIDING OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. DID RAISE POPS SOME FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY. SYSTEM MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
DRIER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH. THURSDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN. MODEL DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH
THE ECMWF DIGGING ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS PROVIDING A BETTER
CHANCE OF TURNING WET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT THIS OUT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WILL GET SOME POPS IN
THERE AS THE PATTERN DOES LOOK UNSETTLED. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OVER AREAS E AND S OF KBIL TONIGHT. THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY W SURFACE WINDS WILL
PERSIST W OF KBIL TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRI. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KLVM TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/073 047/072 040/065 041/070 045/068 038/058 036/054
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    23/W
LVM 042/072 045/065 035/065 040/068 042/063 031/055 029/050
    00/N    04/W    11/B    00/U    04/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 039/075 040/075 037/066 035/072 039/072 036/059 033/056
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 041/070 042/075 037/063 037/069 038/072 037/057 032/054
    10/E    04/W    20/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    22/W
4BQ 039/070 039/078 036/064 036/070 039/075 035/058 032/054
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/N    31/N    12/W
BHK 034/064 037/072 035/061 033/066 037/071 035/054 030/052
    20/E    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    31/N    12/W
SHR 039/070 040/075 036/065 035/070 038/073 034/055 032/051
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270254
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT AND FAST MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS STAYING DRY.
UPDATED FORECAST TO CHANGE WORDING TO SPRINKLES AS OPPOSED TO
SHOWERS BECAUSE DO NOT EXPECT TO MANY PLACES TO GET MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SOMEWHAT BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING 500MB
HEIGHTS IN THE WEST AND SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY/BAROCLINICITY
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW
POPS IN THE EAST AND DOWN TOWARD THE BIG HORNS. ANY DYNAMIC
FORCING SHOULD SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL KICK IN
FULL FORCE FRIDAY WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RECORD TEMPERATURES AT
LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WEST AS WE WARM UP AND MIX DOWN. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY. TEMPS AT 850MB SUGGEST
ANOTHER WARM START TO THE DAY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE YET TO
RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH THE 12Z CYCLE...AS THE GFS REMAINS
FASTER WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS
THE SLOWEST OF ANY PROGGS. THE NAM SUPPORTS THE FASTER GFS. I HAVE
BASICALLY STUCK WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME AS WE ARE STILL TWO
DAYS OUT AND NO INDICATIONS WHICH WAY TO LEAN. THIS MEANS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MID AFTERNOON AT BILLINGS /3-4 PM/. THE
GFS IS ALSO INDICATING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REALLY STRONG POST FRONTAL GUSTS IN THE
BILLINGS AREA /60 MPH/. I AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE JET WINDS
ALOFT /LIMITING DOWNWARD MOTION/ THOUGH SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE WEST MAY BE STRONGEST
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON RATHER THAN LIVINGSTON WHERE THE
DIRECTION IS TOO WESTERLY TO HIT PROLONGED HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HARLOWTON HIT HIGH WIND CRITERIA
BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH MODELS...SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS.

QPF PROGGS ALL SHOW DECENT PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD TO ME AS Q-VECTOR FORCING IS PRETTY
STRONG AND EVEN QUITE SHARP ON THE ECMWF. I DECIDED NOT TO ADD
THUNDER TO ANY ZONES YET DUE TO THE SHORT WINDOW FOR BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FRONTAL TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT WE WILL
EVALUATE AGAIN TOMORROW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN OUR
EASTERN SECTIONS.

TO SUMMARIZE...SATURDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY IN THE WEST...TURNING
VERY WINDY IN THE EAST BY EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT
SO WINDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY FOR MOST AREAS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. FORECAST LOOKS DRY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DUE TO A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT ADVANCING UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL BE VERY CRUCIAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS AN
EARLIER PASSAGE WOULD CAUSE COOLER THAN FORECAST HIGHS. THE GFS
WAS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEREFORE WARMER. DID
RAISE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS EVEN THE ECMWF
WAS SLOW TO GET THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

LOOKS MORE LIKE A WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
SLIDING OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. DID RAISE POPS SOME FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WERE
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY. SYSTEM MAY TURN OUT
TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
DRIER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH. THURSDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN. MODEL DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WITH
THE ECMWF DIGGING ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH AND THUS PROVIDING A BETTER
CHANCE OF TURNING WET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT THIS OUT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WILL GET SOME POPS IN
THERE AS THE PATTERN DOES LOOK UNSETTLED. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES OVER AREAS E AND S OF KBIL TONIGHT. THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY W SURFACE WINDS WILL
PERSIST W OF KBIL TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRI. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KLVM TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/073 047/072 040/065 041/070 045/068 038/058 036/054
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    23/W
LVM 042/072 045/065 035/065 040/068 042/063 031/055 029/050
    00/N    04/W    11/B    00/U    04/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 039/075 040/075 037/066 035/072 039/072 036/059 033/056
    10/B    05/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 041/070 042/075 037/063 037/069 038/072 037/057 032/054
    10/E    04/W    20/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    22/W
4BQ 039/070 039/078 036/064 036/070 039/075 035/058 032/054
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/U    01/N    31/N    12/W
BHK 034/064 037/072 035/061 033/066 037/071 035/054 030/052
    20/E    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    31/N    12/W
SHR 039/070 040/075 036/065 035/070 038/073 034/055 032/051
    10/B    02/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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