Home > Products > State Listing > Montana Data
Latest:
 AFDBYZ |  AFDGGW |  AFDTFX |  AFDMSO |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KGGW 100234
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
734 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. FOCUS WAS PUT INTO ADDING
SOME DETAIL TO THE FORECAST IN THE FORM OF HOURLIES. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON A SMALL CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO CWA IN SHERIDAN COUNTY AS AN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY WANDERS BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHER
THAN THAT... SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE OR SKY AND WIND FIELDS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS PUTS NE MT UNDER A NW FLOW REGIME.

A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD, ONE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW LOOKS TO GENERALLY DROP SE NEAR THE SASK/ND/MT
TRIPLE POINT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO FOLLOW. SOME MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED UNLESS TEMPERATURES
ARE COLDER. THEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY.

THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DROPPING SE THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NE ZONES, AND
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BUT ONLY A HALF-INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES AS THERE WILL
BE ABOUT A 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TFJ


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED LONG RANGE FORECAST STANDS WITH 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
PRETTY MUCH IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO BETTER ENSURE COLLABORATION...BUT ELEMENTS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORTWAVE FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE APPARENT. HOWEVER QPF APPEARS LIGHT AT
THIS TIME. MALIAWCO


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WEST AND A LONG- WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A COLD LOW CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY. LOCALLY...NE MONTANA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE RIDGE AXIS WALKS ITS WAY EAST ENDING UP OVER NEMONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

OFF TO THE WEST A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/WEAK STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC-NW. THIS WAVE WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE
SATURDAY...SENDING A FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE WINDS TO BRING ABOUT A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN BESIDES SNOW AND RAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEHIND THE WAVE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. SCT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A RETURN OF MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO KSDY AND KOLF
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THAT MAY HOLD
OFF NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.

EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
MICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTFX 092340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HI-
LINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS WILL THE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z BUT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KMSO 092139
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
239 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure continues to be the
dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next several
days. Tonight, high level clouds appear to move over the region
which will keep temperatures from dropping as much as last night.
This more mild night should hinder fog development, especially in
the Missoula and Butte locations. Air quality continues to
diminish as valley inversions remain in place. Daytime
temperatures will run above normal for this time of year,
particularly in the higher terrain and high elevation valleys.

The ridge breaks down at the end of the week causing a cooler and
wetter weekend. A cold front Friday night will lower snow levels
and cause some impacts to travel. Area passes will certainly be
impacted by snow, and it is possible that snow will briefly impact
the valleys as well.

However, early next week a warm front will cause snow levels to
rise quickly, with an atmospheric river coming into the Northern
Rockies. Even though there will be plenty of moisture in the
atmosphere, most of the good dynamic energy will go north into
Canada, keeping the heaviest precipitation north of the region.
Most precipitation south of the Canadian border will fall in
northwest Montana and central Idaho. Over a 48-hour period
starting on Sunday, it`s likely that over an inch of precipitation
could fall in the Clearwater and Bitterroot mountains of central
Idaho and also in Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshall
Wilderness in Montana.

Lemhi county in Idaho and west central Montana locations such as
Butte and Anaconda will see less precipitation as most of the
energy and moisture moves to the northeast. However, ample cloud
cover and some increased winds with the fronts will help these
areas warm up.

&&

.AVIATION...Valley inversions will remain across the region for
the next several days. Hazy conditions are anticipated at KSMN and
KMSO. Higher level clouds tonight should keep fog from becoming as
widespread, but patchy freezing fog and low stratus is expected
near rivers and open bodies of water. Any fog that does develop
should diminish by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Increasing cloud cover and a series of fronts
this weekend will give most of the region a good chance of
ventilating this coming weekend. Until then, conditions will
remain very stable with the stage set for worsening air quality
through the rest of the week. Lemhi county in Idaho will likely
ventilate this weekend with the fronts, however, this area will
likely return to stable conditions around Tuesday of next week.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 092136
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
236 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LEE
SIDE TROUGHING THAT WILL KEEP BRISK WINDS UP AROUND
LIVINGSTON...NYE...AND THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
ELEVATED...BUT SUB ADVISORY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS WELL. HOWEVER
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN FALLON COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A CHANCE AT SOME SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. REIMER


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...


AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD AS REGION DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW.
ONE PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AGAIN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE OVERALL PATTERN. GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED...WARMER...WINDIER AND DRIER WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FLATTER WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS IN THIS FAST
PATTERN AS WE GET CLOSER...FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE DRY AND WARM
SIDE.

OVERUNNING ALONG A BACK DOOR FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
IT IN EASTERN MT...SO CONTINUED WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES BUT
NOTHING ORGANIZED. STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE RACES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OFFER UP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY INTO EASTERN AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE A QUICK SHOT WITH WIND
LIKELY THE BIGGER IMPACT BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY FOR
ANOTHER WINDY WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW...40+ GUSTS IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER PATTERN OF
STRONG 850 MB WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME PLACES IN SOUTH CENT MT STRUGGLING TO DROP EVEN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY WINDS AROUND KLVM WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-40KTS. FRIEDERS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/065 036/063 035/052 035/055 035/052 036/057 036/056
    00/N    00/B    11/E    12/W    21/N    11/N    11/B
LVM 038/055 036/054 037/052 039/052 033/047 036/051 037/051
    00/N    01/N    21/N    13/W    32/W    21/N    11/B
HDN 032/063 031/062 032/050 030/053 031/051 030/055 031/054
    00/U    00/B    11/E    12/W    31/N    11/N    11/B
MLS 031/053 029/055 030/043 029/048 032/048 033/052 034/053
    00/U    01/B    12/W    22/W    32/W    12/W    11/B
4BQ 032/058 029/058 029/047 027/049 029/048 030/052 030/054
    00/U    01/B    12/W    22/W    32/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 030/049 027/048 027/037 023/041 029/044 029/047 030/049
    00/U    01/E    11/E    22/W    32/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 031/058 029/056 031/050 029/051 028/047 028/052 029/051
    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    31/N    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 092106
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
206 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS PUTS NE MT UNDER A NW FLOW REGIME.

A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD, ONE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW LOOKS TO GENERALLY DROP SE NEAR THE SASK/ND/MT
TRIPLE POINT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO FOLLOW. SOME MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED UNLESS TEMPERATURES
ARE COLDER. THEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY.

THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DROPPING SE THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NE ZONES, AND
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BUT ONLY A HALF-INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES AS THERE WILL
BE ABOUT A 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED LONG RANGE FORECAST STANDS WITH 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
PRETTY MUCH IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO BETTER ENSURE COLLABORATION...BUT ELEMENTS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORTWAVE FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE APPARENT. HOWEVER QPF APPEARS LIGHT AT
THIS TIME. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WEST AND A LONG- WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A COLD LOW CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY. LOCALLY...NE MONTANA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE RIDGE AXIS WALKS ITS WAY EAST ENDING UP OVER NEMONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

OFF TO THE WEST A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/WEAK STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC-NW. THIS WAVE WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE
SATURDAY...SENDING A FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE WINDS TO BRING ABOUT A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN BESIDES SNOW AND RAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEHIND THE WAVE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW
MVFR CIGS IN PROXIMITY TO KSDY REMAIN POSSIBLE. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 092106
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
206 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS PUTS NE MT UNDER A NW FLOW REGIME.

A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD, ONE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW LOOKS TO GENERALLY DROP SE NEAR THE SASK/ND/MT
TRIPLE POINT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO FOLLOW. SOME MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BUT LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED UNLESS TEMPERATURES
ARE COLDER. THEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY.

THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DROPPING SE THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NE ZONES, AND
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BUT ONLY A HALF-INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES AS THERE WILL
BE ABOUT A 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TFJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE INHERITED LONG RANGE FORECAST STANDS WITH 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
PRETTY MUCH IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO BETTER ENSURE COLLABORATION...BUT ELEMENTS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORTWAVE FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE APPARENT. HOWEVER QPF APPEARS LIGHT AT
THIS TIME. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WEST AND A LONG- WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A COLD LOW CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY. LOCALLY...NE MONTANA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE RIDGE AXIS WALKS ITS WAY EAST ENDING UP OVER NEMONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

OFF TO THE WEST A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/WEAK STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC-NW. THIS WAVE WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE
SATURDAY...SENDING A FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE WINDS TO BRING ABOUT A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN BESIDES SNOW AND RAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEHIND THE WAVE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW
MVFR CIGS IN PROXIMITY TO KSDY REMAIN POSSIBLE. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 092059
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
159 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
HILINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091716
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN AT 15 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN
VCNTY KCTB/KGTF.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 091608
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

MILD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LIVINGSTON...BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY
UNDER ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO UP TO 55 MPH CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
OUR WEST TODAY RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP A BRISK WESTERLY WIND GOING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA TODAY. TROUGHING STRENGTHENS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING US CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN OUR GAP LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS NOT BEST FOR GAP FLOW SO WILL KEEP FORECAST JUST
BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. WE WOULD EXPECT
SOME PERIOD OF FAIRLY  STRONG WINDS AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BACK DOORISH
COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT FOR THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINNING ON SAT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ANCHORED W OF THE AREA ON THU AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
FRI. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT ON THE ECMWF.
THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W ON SAT AND NOT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL SAT NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TRANSITIONING TO NW FOR SUN THROUGH TUE.

THU CONTINUED TO LOOK DRY AND VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT AT 8 TO 10 DEGREES C...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
MON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
KBIL ON THU IS 68 SO WHILE IT WILL BE WARM...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE MODELS TRY TO NUDGE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SOME MOISTURE. THE
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT QPF THU NIGHT WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI. KEPT POPS
LOW FOR BOTH PERIODS FOR NOW AS GFS WAS LIGHTER WITH FRI QPF THAN
ECMWF. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE 50S W.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING SAT. THE GFS WAS DRY SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF PRODUCED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH LOW POPS. THE TIMING ISSUES AFFECTED SAT NIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
QPF PROGS...HAD CHANCE POPS E OF KBIL AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION LINGERED OVER THE E ON SUN ON THE GFS SO KEPT
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THIS AREA. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES ON
SAT. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN TEMPERATURES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT SEE ANY HIGH IMPACT PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED NW FLOW AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. HAD TO USE A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS
WERE NOT IN SYNC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
AROUND KLVM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. REIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 037/065 037/062 036/052 035/055 035/052 036/057
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/E    12/W    21/N    22/W
LVM 058 036/058 035/054 036/052 039/052 033/047 036/051
    0/N 00/N    01/N    11/N    12/W    32/W    22/W
HDN 064 030/064 030/061 032/050 030/053 031/051 030/055
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/E    12/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 055 031/055 029/052 030/043 029/048 032/048 033/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    12/W
4BQ 055 030/060 029/057 030/047 027/049 029/048 030/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    22/W
BHK 047 029/050 026/045 027/037 023/041 029/044 029/047
    0/E 00/U    01/E    21/E    22/J    32/W    12/W
SHR 058 029/060 028/056 030/050 029/051 028/047 028/052
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 091608
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

MILD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LIVINGSTON...BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY
UNDER ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO UP TO 55 MPH CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
OUR WEST TODAY RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP A BRISK WESTERLY WIND GOING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA TODAY. TROUGHING STRENGTHENS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING US CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN OUR GAP LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS NOT BEST FOR GAP FLOW SO WILL KEEP FORECAST JUST
BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. WE WOULD EXPECT
SOME PERIOD OF FAIRLY  STRONG WINDS AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BACK DOORISH
COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT FOR THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINNING ON SAT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ANCHORED W OF THE AREA ON THU AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
FRI. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT ON THE ECMWF.
THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W ON SAT AND NOT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL SAT NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TRANSITIONING TO NW FOR SUN THROUGH TUE.

THU CONTINUED TO LOOK DRY AND VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT AT 8 TO 10 DEGREES C...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
MON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
KBIL ON THU IS 68 SO WHILE IT WILL BE WARM...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE MODELS TRY TO NUDGE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SOME MOISTURE. THE
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT QPF THU NIGHT WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI. KEPT POPS
LOW FOR BOTH PERIODS FOR NOW AS GFS WAS LIGHTER WITH FRI QPF THAN
ECMWF. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE 50S W.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING SAT. THE GFS WAS DRY SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF PRODUCED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH LOW POPS. THE TIMING ISSUES AFFECTED SAT NIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
QPF PROGS...HAD CHANCE POPS E OF KBIL AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION LINGERED OVER THE E ON SUN ON THE GFS SO KEPT
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THIS AREA. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES ON
SAT. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN TEMPERATURES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT SEE ANY HIGH IMPACT PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED NW FLOW AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. HAD TO USE A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS
WERE NOT IN SYNC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
AROUND KLVM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. REIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 037/065 037/062 036/052 035/055 035/052 036/057
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/E    12/W    21/N    22/W
LVM 058 036/058 035/054 036/052 039/052 033/047 036/051
    0/N 00/N    01/N    11/N    12/W    32/W    22/W
HDN 064 030/064 030/061 032/050 030/053 031/051 030/055
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/E    12/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 055 031/055 029/052 030/043 029/048 032/048 033/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    12/W
4BQ 055 030/060 029/057 030/047 027/049 029/048 030/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    22/W
BHK 047 029/050 026/045 027/037 023/041 029/044 029/047
    0/E 00/U    01/E    21/E    22/J    32/W    12/W
SHR 058 029/060 028/056 030/050 029/051 028/047 028/052
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KBYZ 091608
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

MILD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LIVINGSTON...BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY
UNDER ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO UP TO 55 MPH CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
OUR WEST TODAY RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP A BRISK WESTERLY WIND GOING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA TODAY. TROUGHING STRENGTHENS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING US CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN OUR GAP LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS NOT BEST FOR GAP FLOW SO WILL KEEP FORECAST JUST
BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. WE WOULD EXPECT
SOME PERIOD OF FAIRLY  STRONG WINDS AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BACK DOORISH
COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT FOR THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINNING ON SAT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ANCHORED W OF THE AREA ON THU AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
FRI. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT ON THE ECMWF.
THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W ON SAT AND NOT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL SAT NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TRANSITIONING TO NW FOR SUN THROUGH TUE.

THU CONTINUED TO LOOK DRY AND VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT AT 8 TO 10 DEGREES C...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
MON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
KBIL ON THU IS 68 SO WHILE IT WILL BE WARM...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE MODELS TRY TO NUDGE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SOME MOISTURE. THE
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT QPF THU NIGHT WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI. KEPT POPS
LOW FOR BOTH PERIODS FOR NOW AS GFS WAS LIGHTER WITH FRI QPF THAN
ECMWF. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE 50S W.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING SAT. THE GFS WAS DRY SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF PRODUCED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH LOW POPS. THE TIMING ISSUES AFFECTED SAT NIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
QPF PROGS...HAD CHANCE POPS E OF KBIL AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION LINGERED OVER THE E ON SUN ON THE GFS SO KEPT
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THIS AREA. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES ON
SAT. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN TEMPERATURES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT SEE ANY HIGH IMPACT PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED NW FLOW AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. HAD TO USE A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS
WERE NOT IN SYNC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
AROUND KLVM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. REIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 037/065 037/062 036/052 035/055 035/052 036/057
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/E    12/W    21/N    22/W
LVM 058 036/058 035/054 036/052 039/052 033/047 036/051
    0/N 00/N    01/N    11/N    12/W    32/W    22/W
HDN 064 030/064 030/061 032/050 030/053 031/051 030/055
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/E    12/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 055 031/055 029/052 030/043 029/048 032/048 033/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    12/W
4BQ 055 030/060 029/057 030/047 027/049 029/048 030/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    22/W
BHK 047 029/050 026/045 027/037 023/041 029/044 029/047
    0/E 00/U    01/E    21/E    22/J    32/W    12/W
SHR 058 029/060 028/056 030/050 029/051 028/047 028/052
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091602
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW I HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE HELENA/BOZEMAN TERMINALS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 091550
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
850 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWING
LIGHT ECHOES NORTH OF MOOSE JAW/REGINA SASK AREA DROPPING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND SLATED FOR THE NE ZONES. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S OVER THE SW ZONES WITH 30S
AND 40S ELSEWHERE. ENJOY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROF
IN THE EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS PUTS NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE INTERMITTENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROP THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WAVE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS WARMER AIR PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE PACIFIC
PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. WARM AIR SPREADS EASTWARD SHIFTING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO NORTH DAKOTA BUT LEAVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE...COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE DIVIDE...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WEST AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A COLD LOW CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY. LOCALLY...NE MONTANA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS WALKS ITS WAY EAST ENDING UP OVER NEMONT
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OFF TO THE WEST A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/WEAK STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC-NW. THIS WAVE WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE
SATURDAY...SENDING A FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE WINDS TO BRING ABOUT A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN BESIDES SNOW AND RAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEHIND THE WAVE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. SCT



&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BRINGS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST
OF NE MONTANA. HOWEVER THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH
AS A NW-SE LINE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
A WAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA THAT WILL BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
FOR LOW STRATUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...AFFECTING MAINLY
KSDY.

EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY THAT COULD TEMPORARILY PICK UP
TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KGGW 091550
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
850 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWING
LIGHT ECHOES NORTH OF MOOSE JAW/REGINA SASK AREA DROPPING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND SLATED FOR THE NE ZONES. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 50S OVER THE SW ZONES WITH 30S
AND 40S ELSEWHERE. ENJOY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROF
IN THE EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS PUTS NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE INTERMITTENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROP THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WAVE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS WARMER AIR PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE PACIFIC
PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. WARM AIR SPREADS EASTWARD SHIFTING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO NORTH DAKOTA BUT LEAVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE...COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE DIVIDE...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WEST AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A COLD LOW CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY. LOCALLY...NE MONTANA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS WALKS ITS WAY EAST ENDING UP OVER NEMONT
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OFF TO THE WEST A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/WEAK STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC-NW. THIS WAVE WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE
SATURDAY...SENDING A FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE WINDS TO BRING ABOUT A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN BESIDES SNOW AND RAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEHIND THE WAVE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. SCT



&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BRINGS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST
OF NE MONTANA. HOWEVER THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH
AS A NW-SE LINE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
A WAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA THAT WILL BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
FOR LOW STRATUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...AFFECTING MAINLY
KSDY.

EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY THAT COULD TEMPORARILY PICK UP
TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091144
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW I HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE HELENA/BOZEMAN TERMINALS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091041
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
341 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE
WINDS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT INCREASE
SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091040 RRA
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE
WINDS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT INCREASE
SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 091040
AFDTFX

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA




000
FXUS65 KGGW 091034
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
334 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROF
IN THE EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS PUTS NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE INTERMITTENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROP THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WAVE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS WARMER AIR PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE PACIFIC
PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. WARM AIR SPREADS EASTWARD SHIFTING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO NORTH DAKOTA BUT LEAVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE...COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE DIVIDE...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EBERT



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS CONUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WEST AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A COLD LOW CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY. LOCALLY...NE MONTANA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS WALKS ITS WAY EAST ENDING UP OVER NEMONT
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OFF TO THE WEST A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/WEAK STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC-NW. THIS WAVE WILL MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE DIVIDE LATE
SATURDAY...SENDING A FRONT AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL ENERGIZE SURFACE WINDS TO BRING ABOUT A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN BESIDES SNOW AND RAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEHIND THE WAVE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. SCT



&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BRINGS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST
OF NE MONTANA. HOWEVER THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH
AS A NW-SE LINE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
A WAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA THAT WILL BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
FOR LOW STRATUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...AFFECTING MAINLY
KSDY.

EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY THAT COULD TEMPORARILY PICK UP
TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KMSO 091017
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
317 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...More of the same is anticipated across the Northern
Rockies today under persistent high pressure. Patchy fog is likely
this morning in select locations, and will vary in density
depending on where it forms. Plenty of dry air will be in place
today, however clouds may linger in the typical valleys of
northwest Montana through tonight.

Weak shortwaves will pass through the ridge of high pressure over
the region during the second half of this week. Widespread cloud
cover and low chances for rain and snow will first be possible in
the northern Clearwater Mountains of Idaho and into northwest
Montana on Thursday night.

The main trough that will bring the potential for rain changing to
snow is still on track to move into the region on Saturday. Model
guidance had previously trended weaker with this trough, but are
now trending toward a wetter and stronger cold front solution.
The rapid forecast model changes continue to lend to low
confidence in the strength of this trough, so the forecast has
only had minor changes for the weekend. Forecast issues are
similar to the weekend for the rest of the extended forecast, so
near-normal conditions remain in the forecast until confidence
increases.

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy fog is possible at all terminals this morning,
however chances won`t be great. KBTM has already had periodic
reductions from a thin layer of fog, and should continue to see
reductions through roughly 09/1500Z. In addition, a lingering
stratus deck may be more prevalent across portions of northwest
Montana, including KGPI, though aviation reductions should be
minimal. High pressure will continue to persist over the Northern
Rockies, bringing generally fair weather and chances for fog to
develop once again tonight.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 091015
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
315 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
OUR WEST TODAY RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP A BRISK WESTERLY WIND GOING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA TODAY. TROUGHING STRENGTHENS FOR A
TIME TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING US CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN OUR GAP LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS NOT BEST FOR GAP FLOW SO WILL KEEP FORECAST JUST
BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. WE WOULD EXPECT
SOME PERIOD OF FAIRLY  STRONG WINDS AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BACK DOORISH
COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT FOR THE EAST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD
WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINNING ON SAT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ANCHORED W OF THE AREA ON THU AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
FRI. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT ON THE ECMWF.
THE GFS SHOWS THE SAME WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W ON SAT AND NOT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL SAT NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TRANSITIONING TO NW FOR SUN THROUGH TUE.

THU CONTINUED TO LOOK DRY AND VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT AT 8 TO 10 DEGREES C...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON
MON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
KBIL ON THU IS 68 SO WHILE IT WILL BE WARM...RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE MODELS TRY TO NUDGE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH SOME MOISTURE. THE
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT QPF THU NIGHT WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI. KEPT POPS
LOW FOR BOTH PERIODS FOR NOW AS GFS WAS LIGHTER WITH FRI QPF THAN
ECMWF. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE 50S W.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING SAT. THE GFS WAS DRY SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF PRODUCED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA
WITH LOW POPS. THE TIMING ISSUES AFFECTED SAT NIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
QPF PROGS...HAD CHANCE POPS E OF KBIL AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION LINGERED OVER THE E ON SUN ON THE GFS SO KEPT
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THIS AREA. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES ON
SAT. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUN TEMPERATURES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...DID NOT SEE ANY HIGH IMPACT PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED NW FLOW AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. HAD TO USE A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS
WERE NOT IN SYNC WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE KLVM AND BIG TIMBER AREAS TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 KT. LLWS IS EXPECTED OVER KSHR THROUGH 18Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER KLVM AND BIG TIMBER WITH GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 KT OVER KLVM. LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER
KSHR...KMLS AND KBIL. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 037/065 037/062 036/052 035/055 035/052 036/057
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/E    12/W    21/N    22/W
LVM 058 036/058 035/054 036/052 039/052 033/047 036/051
    0/N 00/N    01/N    11/N    12/W    32/W    22/W
HDN 064 030/064 030/061 032/050 030/053 031/051 030/055
    0/U 00/U    00/B    21/E    12/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 055 031/055 029/052 030/043 029/048 032/048 033/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    12/W
4BQ 055 030/060 029/057 030/047 027/049 029/048 030/052
    0/B 00/U    01/B    22/W    22/W    32/W    22/W
BHK 047 029/050 026/045 027/037 023/041 029/044 029/047
    0/E 00/U    01/E    21/E    22/J    32/W    12/W
SHR 058 029/060 028/056 030/050 029/051 028/047 028/052
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 090531
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE
WINDS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT INCREASE
SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 090531
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SURFACE
WINDS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT INCREASE
SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 090356
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AGAIN AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 090350
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES ENHANCING
GAP FLOW AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT. BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY...WARMED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

QUIET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN MAINLY A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA ON TUESDAY.

A DISORGANIZED LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE FAVORED GAP AREAS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS MORE PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR TO THE PARADISE
VALLEY SO WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WE CAN`T
RULE OUT A 60 MPH GUST. IN ANY CASE...THIS WILL NOT BE A WIND
EVENT FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA THAN WAS THE CASE LAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST
TUESDAY...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...


MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS IN THE
EXTENDED...THUS DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. THE BIGGEST WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT AS AT SOME
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND SNOW THE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BEFORE THAT...THE RIDGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY. THURSDAY NIGHT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE AS SOME ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE CENTRAL ZONES.

AS THE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING.
THIS COUPLED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK ORIENTED WRONG FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. IT IS A BETTER SETUP OF HARLOWTON
AND BIG TIMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY BREEZY DAY SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT KLVM. STRONGER WSW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH 35KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KLVM. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AT KSHR AS WELL WITH NW WINDS AROUND 30
TO 40 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AGL. GUSTY 15 TO 25 KNOT WEST WINDS PICK
UP AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/062 036/062 037/059 036/052 033/051 035/054 035/056
    00/U    00/N    01/B    01/B    11/B    21/N    11/N
LVM 037/058 035/057 036/051 036/051 035/048 033/047 034/050
    00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    22/W    12/W
HDN 032/059 028/060 031/056 029/049 028/048 030/052 029/055
    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 031/055 029/055 029/050 030/043 027/045 033/051 032/052
    01/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    22/W    32/W    11/B
4BQ 032/055 029/059 029/053 029/047 025/045 030/051 030/053
    01/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    22/W    11/B
BHK 026/046 027/051 026/044 026/037 021/038 028/047 028/048
    12/W    10/U    01/B    21/E    12/J    22/W    11/B
SHR 033/056 027/057 028/053 029/048 026/047 028/050 027/052
    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 090346
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
846 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING LONG
WAVE UPPER RIDGING KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
THE AMPLIFIED FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TO FAR NORTHEAST
MONTANA OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY TWEAK MADE WAS TO BACK OFF A BIT ON
WINDS...BASED ON TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH
SETS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS COMING TO A COLD ARCTIC
CORE OVER BAFFIN ISLAND. A LARGE WARM RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AND COMES TO A HEAD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WESTERN ALBERTA. THIS HAS PLACED NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURE SWINGS DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ON
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND WHO IS WINNING THE AIRMASS TUG OF WAR
FROM DAY TO DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON... CONTINUE TO EXPECTED DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM
CONDITIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIFT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST
ZONES NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER AND COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... THE SHORTWAVE WILL MARCH SOUTH AND
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVED EAST AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
BEGIN DRIFTING INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS WELL.   GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z ECMWF CAME IN AND IS SHOWING SATURDAY SYSTEM TO BRING A WETTER
SCENARIO TO THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS TO BE RAIN IN THE SW ZONES
BUT NE ZONES COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

THIS ISN`T TOO BIG OF SURPRISE AS SYSTEM LATELY HAVE BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW MORE IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS THAN THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. SO POPS WERE RAISED FOR MOSTLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WERE INCREASED A BIT FOR SE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED OK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WESTWARD
AND SPAWNING A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON START TIME
TEMPERATURES BUT OVERALL EXPECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE DEVELOPED DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE BUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR A RETURN TO
WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BRINGS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR NE
MONTANA TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH AS A NW-
SE LINE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CANADA THAT WILL BRING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR LOW
STRATUS AND ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING...AFFECTING MAINLY
KSDY.

EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT COULD
TEMPORARILY PICK UP TO 10KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  SCT


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 082340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AGAIN AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 082340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AGAIN AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 082340
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HI-LINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AGAIN AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 082205
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
305 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

QUIET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN MAINLY A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA ON TUESDAY.

A DISORGANIZED LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE FAVORED GAP AREAS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS MORE PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR TO THE PARADISE
VALLEY SO WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WE CAN`T
RULE OUT A 60 MPH GUST. IN ANY CASE...THIS WILL NOT BE A WIND
EVENT FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA LIKE WAS THE CASE LAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST
TUESDAY...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS IN THE
EXTENDED...THUS DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. THE BIGGEST WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT AS AT SOME
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND SNOW THE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BEFORE THAT...THE RIDGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY. THURSDAY NIGHT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE AS SOME ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE CENTRAL ZONES.

AS THE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING.
THIS COUPLED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK ORIENTED WRONG FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. IT IS A BETTER SETUP OF HARLOWTON
AND BIG TIMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY BREEZY DAY SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE AROUND KLVM...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITION WILL PREVAIL. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/057 036/062 037/059 036/052 033/051 035/054 035/056
    00/U    00/N    01/B    01/B    11/B    21/N    11/N
LVM 036/055 035/057 036/051 036/051 035/048 033/047 034/050
    00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    22/W    12/W
HDN 028/055 028/060 031/056 029/049 028/048 030/052 029/055
    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 028/051 029/055 029/050 030/043 027/045 033/051 032/052
    01/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    22/W    32/W    11/B
4BQ 029/051 029/059 029/053 029/047 025/045 030/051 030/053
    01/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    22/W    11/B
BHK 025/044 027/051 026/044 026/037 021/038 028/047 028/048
    12/W    10/U    01/B    21/E    12/J    22/W    11/B
SHR 027/051 027/057 028/053 029/048 026/047 028/050 027/052
    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 082136
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
236 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...A building ridge of high pressure will dominate the
weather this week. Today, high clouds continue to stream over the
ridge causing the mostly cloudy skies. As the ridge slowly moves
east and strengthens, expect the cloud cover to decrease tonight,
causing mostly clear skies. Valley inversions will strengthen
under the influence of the ridge causing fog and stratus in
western Montana valleys and near Salmon, ID. Air stagnation will
also be a concern.

On Thursday, Pacific moisture begins streaming through the
flattening ridge, bringing more widespread clouds to the area.
These clouds will keep night-time temps warmer, with cooler
daytime highs. By Thursday night, some light precipitation could
move through far northwest Montana, but this feature has trended
weaker over the past couple days. Many areas will likely not see
much improvement to air quality until later in the weekend.

A stronger system on Saturday or Sunday may bring more widespread
light rain/snow and winds to mix out area valleys, thus bringing better
air quality conditions. The overall pattern still favors ridging
past the weekend, so we may quickly slide back into a stagnant
pattern. Take this extended forecast with a grain of salt, since
model uncertainty is high past the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure will continue to persist over the Northern Rockies,
bringing generally fair weather. Passing mid to high clouds are
expected to decrease enough tonight to allow the potential for low
stratus/fog development at/in the vicinity of KGPI, KMSO, and
KSMN, obscuring terrain and result in reductions in visibility.
Breezy winds will continue over the Continental Divide.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...A ridge of high pressure will continue cause
stagnation concerns for western Montana valleys and along the
Salmon river in Lemhi county, ID. Friday high clouds will return
ahead of the next system, with Friday night and Saturday being the
best chance of breaking the inversions. Chances of ventilation are
good for northwestern Montana which will take a direct hit from a
shortwave and possibly a cold front. Lemhi County, however,
doesn`t look as likely to ventilate. As the shortwave breaks down
the ridge across NW Montana the ridge will remain dominant farther
south over eastern Idaho.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KTFX 082124
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
224 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... LITTLE EXCITING WEATHER
TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FOLKS WHO ENJOY 60-
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN EARLY FEB.  BROAD, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO/WY/MT TO WELL WEST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST. WITH ONE NEARLY-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES ON
TUES-WED. THE PASSING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WE HAVE TODAY, FROM
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS INTO WA/OR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN MT AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO CHECK THE WARMING
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (NOTABLY AT THE 700 MB/10,000 FT
LEVEL) THAT WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER TEMPS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE
CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES TOMORROW AND WED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME NEW RECORDS FOR HIGH TEMPS. THOUGH SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, THE VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE MIXING DUE TO THE RIDGE`S
STABLE CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER MONTANA.  PATCHES OF MOISTURE SPILLING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SCT/BKN MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS (GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS) WILL OCCUR VCNTY KCTB/KGTF
THROUGH 00Z THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  57  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  42  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  14  37  12  35 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  26  45  25  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  51  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  52  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 082107
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
207 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE COLD CORE TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS COMING TO A COLD ARCTIC CORE OVER BAFFIN
ISLAND. A LARGE WARM RIDGE SETS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AND COMES TO A HEAD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN ALBERTA.
THIS HAS PLACED NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
TEMPERATURE SWINGS DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ON SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
AND WHO IS WINNING THE AIRMASS TUG OF WAR FROM DAY TO DAY.

THIS AFTERNOON... CONTINUE TO EXPECTED DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM
CONDITIONS TODAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIFT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOST
ZONES NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER AND COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... THE SHORTWAVE WILL MARCH SOUTH AND
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVED EAST AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
BEGIN DRIFTING INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS WELL.   GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z ECMWF CAME IN AND IS SHOWING SATURDAY SYSTEM TO BRING A WETTER
SCENARIO TO THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS TO BE RAIN IN THE SW ZONES
BUT NE ZONES COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

THIS ISN`T TOO BIG OF SURPRISE AS SYSTEM LATELY HAVE BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW MORE IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS THAN THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. SO POPS WERE RAISED FOR MOSTLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WERE INCREASED A BIT FOR SE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED OK. TFJ


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WESTWARD
AND SPAWNING A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON START TIME
TEMPERATURES BUT OVERALL EXPECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE DEVELOPED DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE BUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR A RETURN TO
WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COARSE OF THE CYCLE. A
DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NEAR
THE MT/ND BORDER WHICH COULD IMPACT KSDY TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS: WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 081715
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... NOT MUCH HAPPENING WEATHER-WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS BROAD
AREA OF HIGH CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE PATTERN
INTO MONTANA.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1715Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER MONTANA.  PATCHES OF MOISTURE SPILLING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SCT/BKN MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS (GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS) WILL OCCUR VCNTY KCTB/KGTF
THROUGH 00Z THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KGGW 081623
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
923 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. REMOVED ALL SUB-
MENTION POPS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z AND THEN REDUCED
EVENING POPS AS WELL. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO WIND AND SKY
BY ADDING THE LATEST MODEL MESOSCALE DATA. FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH ABOUT 6AM WHEN A MINOR DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. AT THE MOMENT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
EXIST. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS CONUS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW OVER MONTANA IS
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS MOSTLY A DRY PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. BUT A
EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. BUT ON TUESDAY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT EASTERN
TROUGH ROTATES AND BACKDOORS THE AREA WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
SPREADING LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES STILL BETWEEN GFS AND NAM CONCERNING QPF AMOUNTS. SO
THERE MAY ONLY BE VIRGA OR MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH OF
MOISTURE.

WITH THE BOUNDARY FLUCTUATING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
TRICKY AT TIMES. THERE IS A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. BUT AGAIN...
LIMITED QPF WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CONTROLLING TO BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO
STRONG WINDS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS. THEREFORE EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD
SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK.

SCT


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WESTWARD
AND SPAWNING A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON START TIME
TEMPERATURES BUT OVERALL EXPECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE DEVELOPED DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE BUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR A RETURN TO
WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS: WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
CYCLE.

 /GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 081620
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE... NOT MUCH HAPPENING WEATHER-WISE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE; JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS BROAD
AREA OF HIGH CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE PATTERN
INTO MONTANA.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT MAINLY A SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081557
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST PLACES
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION LOOKS A LITTLE TO NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED. SO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME IN THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS A PROGGED MINOR PERTURBATION RIDING THE NORTHERLY JET
STREAM OVER THE DAKOTA PLAINS THAT WILL BRUSH OUR EASTERN BORDER
TUESDAY. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS AROUND THE
BAKER VICINITY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOW IMPACT AT BEST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. BOTH MODELS
BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT WITH SOME
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING LOW POPS OVER THE NE ZONES. THIS MOISTURE
DRIES OUT OR MOVES E OF THE AREA ON FRI. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRI. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL
W WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES SE THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DECENT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE ID.
WHILE 700 MB WINDS SUPPORTED A POSSIBLE GAP WIND EVENT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WAS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS IN
CASE HIGHLIGHTS ARE EVENTUALLY NEEDED. LEE TROUGHING WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL W THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING WED WHERE READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
60S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON THE ECMWF ON SAT WHILE THE
WAVE IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
DRY. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE ECMWF SAT NIGHT WITH
TRAILING VORTICITY BEHIND IT ON SUN. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
WITH POPS OVER THE E ON SUN. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OVER THE
AREA ON SUN THAN THE GFS. A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES STILL LEFT
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE
IN IT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON...SUPPORTING
MOUNTAIN POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S ON MON.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER KLVM TODAY. ARTHUR/REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 034/056 035/061 038/057 036/056 037/058 034/052
    0/N 00/U    00/N    00/N    10/B    11/B    22/W
LVM 050 034/055 035/053 034/051 034/051 035/050 033/046
    0/N 00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    21/N
HDN 050 028/056 029/059 031/055 029/053 029/055 028/051
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 044 029/050 028/054 031/050 030/048 030/051 030/049
    0/B 01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    21/N
4BQ 044 030/053 029/056 030/052 029/051 029/052 030/048
    0/B 11/B    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/U    22/W
BHK 040 026/044 024/050 027/045 028/043 026/044 026/045
    0/B 22/W    20/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    21/N
SHR 045 028/050 024/057 028/052 028/052 027/053 027/047
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 081137
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT MAINLY A SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 081137
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT MAINLY A SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 081137
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT MAINLY A SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KMSO 081020
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
320 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to build over the region
today, promoting stable conditions and steadily degrading air
quality across central Idaho and western Montana. Stratus could
linger in parts of northwest Montana through the day as well,
while most other locations should see another day full of
sunshine.

The current high pressure pattern is still forecast to be over
north central Idaho and western Montana for much of this week.
Expect stagnant air in stable valley locations, cool morning
temperatures, and patchy fog. The ridge will flatten a bit on
Thursday, which will allow for some cloud cover to pass and
possibly a shower or two in the mountains. This cloud cover will
keep temperatures from dropping as much overnight, so low
temperatures have been raised.

Latest model solutions, along with tools that show the trend of
specific model guidance, agree that the trough for this weekend is
weakening in strength and will likely arrive later than the
previous forecast. This means that chances for precipitation have
been decreased and confidence is low about the strength of the
trough. High pressure may return after this trough so an extended
drier than normal period is looking more likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy fog and/or stratus could plague KGPI this
morning and through the day under building high pressure. KMSO,
KBTM, and KSMN should be free of these types of aviation impacts
though, with only a minor chance of seeing patchy fog develop.
These chances may increase going forward as high pressure
continues to strengthen. Otherwise, very little activity is
expected due to persistent high pressure.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST PLACES
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION LOOKS A LITTLE TO NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED. SO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME IN THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS A PROGGED MINOR PERTURBATION RIDING THE NORTHERLY JET
STREAM OVER THE DAKOTA PLAINS THAT WILL BRUSH OUR EASTERN BORDER
TUESDAY. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS AROUND THE
BAKER VICINITY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOW IMPACT AT BEST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. BOTH
MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT WITH SOME
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING LOW POPS OVER THE NE ZONES. THIS MOISTURE
DRIES OUT OR MOVES E OF THE AREA ON FRI. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRI. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL
W WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES SE THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DECENT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE ID.
WHILE 700 MB WINDS SUPPORTED A POSSIBLE GAP WIND EVENT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WAS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS IN
CASE HIGHLIGHTS ARE EVENTUALLY NEEDED. LEE TROUGHING WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL W THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING WED WHERE READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
60S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON THE ECMWF ON SAT WHILE THE
WAVE IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
DRY. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE ECMWF SAT NIGHT WITH
TRAILING VORTICITY BEHIND IT ON SUN. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
WITH POPS OVER THE E ON SUN. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OVER
THE AREA ON SUN THAN THE GFS. A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES STILL LEFT
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE IN
IT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON...SUPPORTING MOUNTAIN
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S ON MON.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER KLVM TODAY. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 034/056 035/061 038/057 036/056 037/058 034/052
    0/N 00/U    00/N    00/N    10/B    11/B    22/W
LVM 050 034/055 035/053 034/051 034/051 035/050 033/046
    0/N 00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    21/N
HDN 050 028/056 029/059 031/055 029/053 029/055 028/051
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 044 029/050 028/054 031/050 030/048 030/051 030/049
    0/B 01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    21/N
4BQ 044 030/053 029/056 030/052 029/051 029/052 030/048
    0/B 11/B    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/U    22/W
BHK 040 026/044 024/050 027/045 028/043 026/044 026/045
    0/B 22/W    20/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    21/N
SHR 045 028/050 024/057 028/052 028/052 027/053 027/047
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST PLACES
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION LOOKS A LITTLE TO NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED. SO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME IN THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS A PROGGED MINOR PERTURBATION RIDING THE NORTHERLY JET
STREAM OVER THE DAKOTA PLAINS THAT WILL BRUSH OUR EASTERN BORDER
TUESDAY. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS AROUND THE
BAKER VICINITY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOW IMPACT AT BEST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. BOTH
MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT WITH SOME
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING LOW POPS OVER THE NE ZONES. THIS MOISTURE
DRIES OUT OR MOVES E OF THE AREA ON FRI. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRI. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL
W WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES SE THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DECENT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE ID.
WHILE 700 MB WINDS SUPPORTED A POSSIBLE GAP WIND EVENT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WAS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS IN
CASE HIGHLIGHTS ARE EVENTUALLY NEEDED. LEE TROUGHING WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL W THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING WED WHERE READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
60S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON THE ECMWF ON SAT WHILE THE
WAVE IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
DRY. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE ECMWF SAT NIGHT WITH
TRAILING VORTICITY BEHIND IT ON SUN. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
WITH POPS OVER THE E ON SUN. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OVER
THE AREA ON SUN THAN THE GFS. A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES STILL LEFT
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE IN
IT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON...SUPPORTING MOUNTAIN
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S ON MON.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER KLVM TODAY. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 034/056 035/061 038/057 036/056 037/058 034/052
    0/N 00/U    00/N    00/N    10/B    11/B    22/W
LVM 050 034/055 035/053 034/051 034/051 035/050 033/046
    0/N 00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    21/N
HDN 050 028/056 029/059 031/055 029/053 029/055 028/051
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 044 029/050 028/054 031/050 030/048 030/051 030/049
    0/B 01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    21/N
4BQ 044 030/053 029/056 030/052 029/051 029/052 030/048
    0/B 11/B    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/U    22/W
BHK 040 026/044 024/050 027/045 028/043 026/044 026/045
    0/B 22/W    20/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    21/N
SHR 045 028/050 024/057 028/052 028/052 027/053 027/047
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST PLACES
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION LOOKS A LITTLE TO NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED. SO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME IN THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS A PROGGED MINOR PERTURBATION RIDING THE NORTHERLY JET
STREAM OVER THE DAKOTA PLAINS THAT WILL BRUSH OUR EASTERN BORDER
TUESDAY. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS AROUND THE
BAKER VICINITY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOW IMPACT AT BEST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. BOTH
MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT WITH SOME
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING LOW POPS OVER THE NE ZONES. THIS MOISTURE
DRIES OUT OR MOVES E OF THE AREA ON FRI. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRI. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL
W WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES SE THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DECENT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE ID.
WHILE 700 MB WINDS SUPPORTED A POSSIBLE GAP WIND EVENT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WAS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS IN
CASE HIGHLIGHTS ARE EVENTUALLY NEEDED. LEE TROUGHING WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL W THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING WED WHERE READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
60S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON THE ECMWF ON SAT WHILE THE
WAVE IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
DRY. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE ECMWF SAT NIGHT WITH
TRAILING VORTICITY BEHIND IT ON SUN. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
WITH POPS OVER THE E ON SUN. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OVER
THE AREA ON SUN THAN THE GFS. A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES STILL LEFT
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE IN
IT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON...SUPPORTING MOUNTAIN
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S ON MON.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER KLVM TODAY. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 034/056 035/061 038/057 036/056 037/058 034/052
    0/N 00/U    00/N    00/N    10/B    11/B    22/W
LVM 050 034/055 035/053 034/051 034/051 035/050 033/046
    0/N 00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    21/N
HDN 050 028/056 029/059 031/055 029/053 029/055 028/051
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 044 029/050 028/054 031/050 030/048 030/051 030/049
    0/B 01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    21/N
4BQ 044 030/053 029/056 030/052 029/051 029/052 030/048
    0/B 11/B    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/U    22/W
BHK 040 026/044 024/050 027/045 028/043 026/044 026/045
    0/B 22/W    20/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    21/N
SHR 045 028/050 024/057 028/052 028/052 027/053 027/047
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 081005
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
305 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS CONUS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST. A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW OVER MONTANA IS
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS MOSTLY A DRY PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. BUT A
EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP AS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER OUR AREA. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. BUT ON TUESDAY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT EASTERN
TROUGH ROTATES AND BACKDOORS THE AREA WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
SPREADING LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES STILL BETWEEN GFS AND NAM CONCERNING QPF AMOUNTS. SO
THERE MAY ONLY BE VIRGA OR MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH OF
MOISTURE.

WITH THE BOUNDARY FLUCTUATING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
TRICKY AT TIMES. THERE IS A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. BUT AGAIN...
LIMITED QPF WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CONTROLLING TO BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NO
STRONG WINDS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS. THEREFORE EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD
SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK.

SCT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WESTWARD
AND SPAWNING A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON START TIME
TEMPERATURES BUT OVERALL EXPECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE DEVELOPED DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE BUT SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS FOR A RETURN TO
WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




000
FXUS65 KTFX 081000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0515Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 081000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0515Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 081000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER SW MT
WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
PLAINS AREAS. HOENISCH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY A MOUNTAIN SHOWER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING. OVER NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MOVE AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE MOSTLY DRY TREND. FOR NOW I
HAVE LOW POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN TERMS
OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0515Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  31  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  45  27  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  40  20  41  19 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33   7  35  12 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  25  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  46  30  51  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 080515
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. LOWERED SOME TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0515Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 438 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  15  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  20  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 080425
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. LOWERED SOME TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2336Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 438 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  15  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  20  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS




000
FXUS65 KTFX 080425
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. LOWERED SOME TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2336Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 438 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  15  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  20  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 080425
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. LOWERED SOME TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2336Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 438 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  15  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  20  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 080425
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. LOWERED SOME TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2336Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 438 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  15  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  20  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KTFX 080425
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. LOWERED SOME TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 2336Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 438 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  15  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  20  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



000
FXUS65 KGGW 080409 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPIRED AT 00Z. WIND REMAINS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST. GOES IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO NORTHERLY. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT TO BELOW 0C AT ALL OR JUST ABOUT ALL
LOCATIONS. THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. THEREFORE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE EXPIRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TAKE IT`S TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE ABOUT 5 PM AND ALLOW
WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF.

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THEN BUILDS EAST BUT BAROCLINIC NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NE MT INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NE ZONES. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE NAM DROPS MOST OF THE
QPF INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

CONSEQUENTLY, RAISED POPS A BIT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
NE ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS
THERE IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. TFJ


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WERE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE AND AS A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW
COVERAGE HAS SUBLIMATED OR MELTED OUT WITH THE PASSING HIGH WINDS
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPS IN THEIR ENSEMBLES AND WE MOVES
ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT POPS SEEM TO HAVE
SETTLED MORE ON THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT MORE
SPECIFICALLY AND CHANCES HAVE RISEN AS THE SHORTWAVE SNAPS MORE IN
FOCUS AMONG ENSEMBLES. A SECOND PERIOD AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT IS
ALSO APPEARING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FOCUS FOR AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT. AND POPS WERE SHOVED UP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND IF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SO KEPT POPS LOW.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG
PACIFIC TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE NOW EXITING
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS: FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20KTS GUSTING TO
25KTS AT TIMES... DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY LATE
EVENING.

GAH/GILCHRIST



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 080409 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPIRED AT 00Z. WIND REMAINS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST. GOES IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO NORTHERLY. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT TO BELOW 0C AT ALL OR JUST ABOUT ALL
LOCATIONS. THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. THEREFORE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE EXPIRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TAKE IT`S TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE ABOUT 5 PM AND ALLOW
WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF.

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THEN BUILDS EAST BUT BAROCLINIC NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NE MT INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NE ZONES. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE NAM DROPS MOST OF THE
QPF INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

CONSEQUENTLY, RAISED POPS A BIT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
NE ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS
THERE IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. TFJ


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WERE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE AND AS A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW
COVERAGE HAS SUBLIMATED OR MELTED OUT WITH THE PASSING HIGH WINDS
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPS IN THEIR ENSEMBLES AND WE MOVES
ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT POPS SEEM TO HAVE
SETTLED MORE ON THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT MORE
SPECIFICALLY AND CHANCES HAVE RISEN AS THE SHORTWAVE SNAPS MORE IN
FOCUS AMONG ENSEMBLES. A SECOND PERIOD AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT IS
ALSO APPEARING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FOCUS FOR AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT. AND POPS WERE SHOVED UP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND IF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SO KEPT POPS LOW.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG
PACIFIC TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE NOW EXITING
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS: FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20KTS GUSTING TO
25KTS AT TIMES... DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY LATE
EVENING.

GAH/GILCHRIST



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 080409 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPIRED AT 00Z. WIND REMAINS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST. GOES IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO NORTHERLY. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT TO BELOW 0C AT ALL OR JUST ABOUT ALL
LOCATIONS. THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. THEREFORE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE EXPIRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TAKE IT`S TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE ABOUT 5 PM AND ALLOW
WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF.

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THEN BUILDS EAST BUT BAROCLINIC NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NE MT INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NE ZONES. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE NAM DROPS MOST OF THE
QPF INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

CONSEQUENTLY, RAISED POPS A BIT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
NE ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS
THERE IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. TFJ


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WERE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE AND AS A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW
COVERAGE HAS SUBLIMATED OR MELTED OUT WITH THE PASSING HIGH WINDS
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPS IN THEIR ENSEMBLES AND WE MOVES
ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT POPS SEEM TO HAVE
SETTLED MORE ON THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT MORE
SPECIFICALLY AND CHANCES HAVE RISEN AS THE SHORTWAVE SNAPS MORE IN
FOCUS AMONG ENSEMBLES. A SECOND PERIOD AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT IS
ALSO APPEARING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FOCUS FOR AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT. AND POPS WERE SHOVED UP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND IF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SO KEPT POPS LOW.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG
PACIFIC TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE NOW EXITING
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS: FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20KTS GUSTING TO
25KTS AT TIMES... DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY LATE
EVENING.

GAH/GILCHRIST



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 080409 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPIRED AT 00Z. WIND REMAINS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST. GOES IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO NORTHERLY. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT TO BELOW 0C AT ALL OR JUST ABOUT ALL
LOCATIONS. THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. THEREFORE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE EXPIRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TAKE IT`S TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE ABOUT 5 PM AND ALLOW
WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF.

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THEN BUILDS EAST BUT BAROCLINIC NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NE MT INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NE ZONES. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE NAM DROPS MOST OF THE
QPF INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

CONSEQUENTLY, RAISED POPS A BIT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
NE ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS
THERE IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. TFJ


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WERE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE AND AS A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW
COVERAGE HAS SUBLIMATED OR MELTED OUT WITH THE PASSING HIGH WINDS
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPS IN THEIR ENSEMBLES AND WE MOVES
ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT POPS SEEM TO HAVE
SETTLED MORE ON THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT MORE
SPECIFICALLY AND CHANCES HAVE RISEN AS THE SHORTWAVE SNAPS MORE IN
FOCUS AMONG ENSEMBLES. A SECOND PERIOD AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT IS
ALSO APPEARING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FOCUS FOR AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT. AND POPS WERE SHOVED UP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND IF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SO KEPT POPS LOW.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG
PACIFIC TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE NOW EXITING
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS: FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20KTS GUSTING TO
25KTS AT TIMES... DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY LATE
EVENING.

GAH/GILCHRIST



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



000
FXUS65 KGGW 080409 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
909 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPIRED AT 00Z. WIND REMAINS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST. GOES IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FLOWING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO NORTHERLY. SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT TO BELOW 0C AT ALL OR JUST ABOUT ALL
LOCATIONS. THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. THEREFORE CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE EXPIRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TAKE IT`S TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE ABOUT 5 PM AND ALLOW
WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF.

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THEN BUILDS EAST BUT BAROCLINIC NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NE MT INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NE ZONES. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE NAM DROPS MOST OF THE
QPF INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

CONSEQUENTLY, RAISED POPS A BIT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
NE ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS
THERE IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. TFJ


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WERE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE AND AS A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW
COVERAGE HAS SUBLIMATED OR MELTED OUT WITH THE PASSING HIGH WINDS
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPS IN THEIR ENSEMBLES AND WE MOVES
ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT POPS SEEM TO HAVE
SETTLED MORE ON THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT MORE
SPECIFICALLY AND CHANCES HAVE RISEN AS THE SHORTWAVE SNAPS MORE IN
FOCUS AMONG ENSEMBLES. A SECOND PERIOD AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT IS
ALSO APPEARING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FOCUS FOR AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT. AND POPS WERE SHOVED UP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND IF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SO KEPT POPS LOW.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG
PACIFIC TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE NOW EXITING
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS: FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20KTS GUSTING TO
25KTS AT TIMES... DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY LATE
EVENING.

GAH/GILCHRIST



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities