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000
FXUS62 KMHX 250051
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
751 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM MON...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR CONVECTION AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE COAST DUE
TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.

A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS PLACING
EASTERN NC WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR. LONG FETCH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
NC...AS NOTED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT WHICH INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COAST
TO 1.45 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. THESE VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT ENTIRELY DECOUPLE. HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...MIXED BAG OF AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH APPROACHING
WEAK CONVECTION MAKES THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE TRICKY. WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CEILINGS DIMINISHING TO IFR LEVELS AROUND 03Z...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING THOUGH NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE FROM LAMP/GFS/NAM ALL VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS OF 4-6 KT FORECAST
WOULD SUGGEST VSBYS NO LESS THAN 1-2SM MILES. WILL CAP MIN VSBYS
AT 2SM THOUGH ANY BRIEF DECOUPLING OF WINDS COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO
TANK QUICKLY DUE TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FOG WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14-16Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HEAVY PRECIP LEADING TO
REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT NORTH TO 5-8 FT SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THUS NO CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED FOG
TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS AREA ASOS/AWOS SITES HAVE REPORTED A
MIXED BAG OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...THOUGH NOT BELOW 1SM. WILL
ADDRESS WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF COVERAGE BECOMES GREATER.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL
IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...DAG/JAC
MARINE...DAG/CGG/JAC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250051
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
751 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM MON...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR CONVECTION AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE COAST DUE
TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.

A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS PLACING
EASTERN NC WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR. LONG FETCH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
NC...AS NOTED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT WHICH INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COAST
TO 1.45 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. THESE VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT ENTIRELY DECOUPLE. HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...MIXED BAG OF AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH APPROACHING
WEAK CONVECTION MAKES THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE TRICKY. WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CEILINGS DIMINISHING TO IFR LEVELS AROUND 03Z...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING THOUGH NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE FROM LAMP/GFS/NAM ALL VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS OF 4-6 KT FORECAST
WOULD SUGGEST VSBYS NO LESS THAN 1-2SM MILES. WILL CAP MIN VSBYS
AT 2SM THOUGH ANY BRIEF DECOUPLING OF WINDS COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO
TANK QUICKLY DUE TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FOG WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14-16Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HEAVY PRECIP LEADING TO
REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT NORTH TO 5-8 FT SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THUS NO CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED FOG
TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS AREA ASOS/AWOS SITES HAVE REPORTED A
MIXED BAG OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...THOUGH NOT BELOW 1SM. WILL
ADDRESS WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF COVERAGE BECOMES GREATER.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL
IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...DAG/JAC
MARINE...DAG/CGG/JAC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250051
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
751 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM MON...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR CONVECTION AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE COAST DUE
TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.

A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS PLACING
EASTERN NC WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR. LONG FETCH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
NC...AS NOTED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT WHICH INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COAST
TO 1.45 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. THESE VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT ENTIRELY DECOUPLE. HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...MIXED BAG OF AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH APPROACHING
WEAK CONVECTION MAKES THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE TRICKY. WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CEILINGS DIMINISHING TO IFR LEVELS AROUND 03Z...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING THOUGH NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE FROM LAMP/GFS/NAM ALL VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS OF 4-6 KT FORECAST
WOULD SUGGEST VSBYS NO LESS THAN 1-2SM MILES. WILL CAP MIN VSBYS
AT 2SM THOUGH ANY BRIEF DECOUPLING OF WINDS COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO
TANK QUICKLY DUE TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FOG WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14-16Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HEAVY PRECIP LEADING TO
REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT NORTH TO 5-8 FT SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THUS NO CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED FOG
TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS AREA ASOS/AWOS SITES HAVE REPORTED A
MIXED BAG OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...THOUGH NOT BELOW 1SM. WILL
ADDRESS WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF COVERAGE BECOMES GREATER.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL
IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...DAG/JAC
MARINE...DAG/CGG/JAC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250051
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
751 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM MON...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR CONVECTION AS NOTED BY THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE COAST DUE
TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.

A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVING EAST...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS PLACING
EASTERN NC WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR. LONG FETCH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
NC...AS NOTED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT WHICH INDICATES PWATS AROUND 1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COAST
TO 1.45 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. THESE VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT ENTIRELY DECOUPLE. HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...MIXED BAG OF AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH APPROACHING
WEAK CONVECTION MAKES THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE TRICKY. WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CEILINGS DIMINISHING TO IFR LEVELS AROUND 03Z...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING THOUGH NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE FROM LAMP/GFS/NAM ALL VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBYS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS OF 4-6 KT FORECAST
WOULD SUGGEST VSBYS NO LESS THAN 1-2SM MILES. WILL CAP MIN VSBYS
AT 2SM THOUGH ANY BRIEF DECOUPLING OF WINDS COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO
TANK QUICKLY DUE TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW STRATUS/PATCHY
FOG WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14-16Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HEAVY PRECIP LEADING TO
REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT NORTH TO 5-8 FT SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THUS NO CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED FOG
TO THE MARINE FORECAST AS AREA ASOS/AWOS SITES HAVE REPORTED A
MIXED BAG OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...THOUGH NOT BELOW 1SM. WILL
ADDRESS WITH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IF COVERAGE BECOMES GREATER.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL
IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...DAG/JAC
MARINE...DAG/CGG/JAC



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 250010 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER
EAST IN CLOSE VICINITY TO A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS/RAIN WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THU AN PERSIST THROUGH FRI/SAT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 250010 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER
EAST IN CLOSE VICINITY TO A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS/RAIN WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THU AN PERSIST THROUGH FRI/SAT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 242341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...UPDATES IN THE NEAR-TERM CENTER ON A SIZABLE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
DROPPING A GENERAL QUARTER-INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS ALMOST ZERO AS INSTABILITY IS VERY ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100
PERCENT ALONG THE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH LESSER CHANGES ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.

ALSO I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST MAINLY SOUTH OF SUNSET
BEACH AS SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND IS
ADVECTING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS WIND DIRECTIONS
VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED
OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO
CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR-TERM WAS TO ADD
PATCHY FOG NEARSHORE. BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS WAVES OF SEA FOG
HAVE ROLLED ONSHORE. THIS SEA FOG IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF SUNSET BEACH ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THE WORST
AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST HERE...AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS A RELATIVELY LONG FETCH LENGTH ACROSS THE
COLDER WATER. ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR FOG IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST LESS LIKELY...DUE TO SHORTER FETCH
LENGTH AND WATER TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN ALONG
THE SC COAST. OTHERWISE WIND/SEA FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUES
MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT
RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 242341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...UPDATES IN THE NEAR-TERM CENTER ON A SIZABLE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
DROPPING A GENERAL QUARTER-INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS ALMOST ZERO AS INSTABILITY IS VERY ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100
PERCENT ALONG THE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH LESSER CHANGES ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.

ALSO I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST MAINLY SOUTH OF SUNSET
BEACH AS SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND IS
ADVECTING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS WIND DIRECTIONS
VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED
OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO
CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR-TERM WAS TO ADD
PATCHY FOG NEARSHORE. BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS WAVES OF SEA FOG
HAVE ROLLED ONSHORE. THIS SEA FOG IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF SUNSET BEACH ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THE WORST
AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST HERE...AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS A RELATIVELY LONG FETCH LENGTH ACROSS THE
COLDER WATER. ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR FOG IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST LESS LIKELY...DUE TO SHORTER FETCH
LENGTH AND WATER TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN ALONG
THE SC COAST. OTHERWISE WIND/SEA FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUES
MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT
RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 242341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...UPDATES IN THE NEAR-TERM CENTER ON A SIZABLE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
DROPPING A GENERAL QUARTER-INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS ALMOST ZERO AS INSTABILITY IS VERY ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100
PERCENT ALONG THE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH LESSER CHANGES ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.

ALSO I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST MAINLY SOUTH OF SUNSET
BEACH AS SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND IS
ADVECTING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS WIND DIRECTIONS
VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED
OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO
CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR-TERM WAS TO ADD
PATCHY FOG NEARSHORE. BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS WAVES OF SEA FOG
HAVE ROLLED ONSHORE. THIS SEA FOG IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF SUNSET BEACH ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THE WORST
AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST HERE...AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS A RELATIVELY LONG FETCH LENGTH ACROSS THE
COLDER WATER. ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR FOG IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST LESS LIKELY...DUE TO SHORTER FETCH
LENGTH AND WATER TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN ALONG
THE SC COAST. OTHERWISE WIND/SEA FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUES
MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT
RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 242341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. COOL
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...UPDATES IN THE NEAR-TERM CENTER ON A SIZABLE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
DROPPING A GENERAL QUARTER-INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS ALMOST ZERO AS INSTABILITY IS VERY ELEVATED WITH NO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100
PERCENT ALONG THE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH LESSER CHANGES ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS.

ALSO I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST MAINLY SOUTH OF SUNSET
BEACH AS SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND IS
ADVECTING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS WIND DIRECTIONS
VEER MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH REGARDS TO OTHER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED
OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO
CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS
AND VSBYS PLAGUE OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
PREVAILED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT THE COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR. ALTHOUGH OBS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PATCHY -RA CONTINUE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...KFLO/KLBT WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IFR STRATUS COULD EXPAND
INLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MODERATE THAT CIGS
WILL STAY BELOW 1KFT AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY TUE.

PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES POORLY DEFINED AS IT REACHES
OUR AREA...SO A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IS POSSIBLE WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR INLAND...
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR-TERM WAS TO ADD
PATCHY FOG NEARSHORE. BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS HAVE HAD PERIODS OF
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS WAVES OF SEA FOG
HAVE ROLLED ONSHORE. THIS SEA FOG IS LIKELY AFFECTING THE WATERS
SOUTH OF SUNSET BEACH ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THE WORST
AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST HERE...AND THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND HAS A RELATIVELY LONG FETCH LENGTH ACROSS THE
COLDER WATER. ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR FOG IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST LESS LIKELY...DUE TO SHORTER FETCH
LENGTH AND WATER TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN ALONG
THE SC COAST. OTHERWISE WIND/SEA FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUES
MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT
RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 540 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 540 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 242030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW
70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES
EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING
WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT
NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT...
DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO
FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 242030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW
70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES
EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING
WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT
NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT...
DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO
FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 242030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW
70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES
EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING
WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT
NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT...
DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO
FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 242030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW
70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES
EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING
WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT
NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT...
DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO
FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KILM 242022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL











000
FXUS62 KILM 242022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST AND DECELERATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
DEEP MOISTURE BOTH LAG BEHIND AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO DESPITE
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THEN COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER SRN TX SWINGS
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND GIVES IT A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS IN ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE WHILE WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT
TURNS FLOW INTO THE LOW WEST OF IT...I.E. OVER LANDMASS. THIS
RESULTS IN AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT...850MB TEMPS NEAR 15C
JUST OFF COAST AND DOWN TO 2 C OVER WRN ZONES BY 12Z WED. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOME OF THE STRONGEST I`VE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING VALUES OF 100-200 UNITS. IT IS
ALSO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A NARROW ZONE OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER THE IMMEDIATE (MAINLY NC) COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS LOW LEVEL
FORCING MAY EVEN COUPLE WITH DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER
JET CONFIGURATION AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 190KT UPPER JET MOVES
INTO PA. IN FACT GFS CROSS SECTIONS FOR A TIME SHOW ASCENT CLEAR
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN. WITH AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION TO
GOMEX MOISTURE THIS SETUP COULD EASILY YIELD 2-2.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY TO PERHAPS AS LATE AS DAYBREAK WED. THEREAFTER
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHTER RAIN WED
MORNING THEN GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS CRANKING UP BY 18Z. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRI WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL TROUGH HELPS PUSH REMAINS OF
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE FLOW QUICKLY PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SAT. DEEP
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WILL START A STEADY CLIMB BACK TO CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LATE
IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH WHILE ECMWF
PUSHES IT SOUTH. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAVORED BY
WPC...FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT BUT A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECAY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS. STRONG
SYSTEM SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THEN CAUSE FAIRLY RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS LOW CRANKS UP AND MOVES BY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAMP UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STILL DEEPENING LOW
ACCELERATES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
LIKELY WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE ENSUING COLD
SURGE AND SEAS WILL SIMILARLY BE HESITANT TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. GRADIENT WEAKENS
MIDDAY FRI FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF REMAINS OF DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MOVING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN
THE REGION. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU INTO FRI WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL












000
FXUS62 KRAH 241952
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.... SPREADING PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE... A 1025
MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER... THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS...
INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF ANY AT ALL...
ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH THE THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION IN THE KEY -
10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS... HAVE REMOVED
SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KILM 241951
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 241951
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 241951
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 241951
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 241918
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM MON...FULL LATITUDE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTINUE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. NAM12 APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING A BIT BETTER AT THIS
TIME...SOW WILL GO WITH ITS SLOWER SOLUTION OF BRINGING FRONT
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
60. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING INCREASED LIFT WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM MON...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES INDICATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT AND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MON...PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO
20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A BIT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELELVATED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LOOSENED GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 241918
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM MON...FULL LATITUDE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTINUE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. NAM12 APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING A BIT BETTER AT THIS
TIME...SOW WILL GO WITH ITS SLOWER SOLUTION OF BRINGING FRONT
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
60. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING INCREASED LIFT WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM MON...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES INDICATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT AND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MON...PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO
20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A BIT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELELVATED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LOOSENED GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 241918
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM MON...FULL LATITUDE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTINUE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. NAM12 APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING A BIT BETTER AT THIS
TIME...SOW WILL GO WITH ITS SLOWER SOLUTION OF BRINGING FRONT
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
60. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING INCREASED LIFT WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM MON...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES INDICATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT AND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MON...PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO
20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A BIT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELELVATED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LOOSENED GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 241918
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM MON...FULL LATITUDE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE WILL HELP CONTINUE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. NAM12 APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING A BIT BETTER AT THIS
TIME...SOW WILL GO WITH ITS SLOWER SOLUTION OF BRINGING FRONT
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
60. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING INCREASED LIFT WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WET PERIOD TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST ON WED. STRONG
ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTG WED. KEPT CAT POPS WITH MODERATE RAIN
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY CONDS EXPECTED WITH
NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH COOL TEMPS WILL WITH HIGHS ONLY 45
TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN TAPERS OFF AND ENDS QUICKLY FROM
SW TO NE WED EVENING AS SURFACE LOW RACES TO THE NE. CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LWR AND MID 30S INLAND
TO MID 40S OBX ON THU MORN.

DRY WX AND COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50-55 THU AND FRI
WITH LOWS 30-35 INLAND AND 40-45 COAST THU NGT AND FRI NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. DRY CONDITIONS CONT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE AND THE UPR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID AND UPR
50S SAT TO THE LWR 60S SUN AND MON. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
REBOUND TO 35-40 INLAND AND 40-45 IMMEDIATE COAST. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP
CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM MON...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES INDICATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT AND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR CONDS DVLPG LATER TUE NIGHT
AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MON...PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO
20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX A BIT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELELVATED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LOOSENED GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LULL IN CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY...AND WILL PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NE. NE WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
EXPECT STRONG SCA WINDS WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG NE
WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET ACRS OUTER WTRS ON WED. THE
LOW RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING
W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED
NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS THU INTO
FRI. SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KRAH 241816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 241816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241716
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1216 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY AND RACE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM MON...SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AGAIN IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES SHOWING
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. CURRENT POP
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
TONIGHT. THE WINDS REMAIN SW UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY...THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FAVORED GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT HOLDS UP OFF THE COAST. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS FOR MODERATE RAIN MOST AREAS
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN SHLD TAPER
OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM MON...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES INDICATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT AND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT
INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND SHLD CONT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1212 PM MON...SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS WITH
SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET. MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN
DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT 7 TO 10 FEET.

PREV DISC...AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...MAJOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY AS WILL
LOWER GALES ALL WATERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS. WILL
ALSO DROP SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL INLAND WATERS WITH GENERALLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE SOUNDS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE RIVERS PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET SHOWING 14 FEET WITH DIAMOND BUOY
REPORTING 12 FEET AND 11 FEET 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUCK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
VEERING TO NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
4 TO 7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET ALL WATERS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N. EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. STILL SOME
SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ON THE WATERS. AGAIN
DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING
GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DIFFERING TRACKS OF LOW. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO
THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
THU INTO FRI BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS OVER OUTER
WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241716
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1216 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY AND RACE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM MON...SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AGAIN IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES SHOWING
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. CURRENT POP
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
TONIGHT. THE WINDS REMAIN SW UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY...THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FAVORED GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT HOLDS UP OFF THE COAST. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS FOR MODERATE RAIN MOST AREAS
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN SHLD TAPER
OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM MON...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE RADAR PICTURES INDICATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT AND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TAFS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT
INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND SHLD CONT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1212 PM MON...SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE OPEN WATERS WITH
SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET. MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN
DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT 7 TO 10 FEET.

PREV DISC...AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...MAJOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY AS WILL
LOWER GALES ALL WATERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS. WILL
ALSO DROP SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL INLAND WATERS WITH GENERALLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE SOUNDS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE RIVERS PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET SHOWING 14 FEET WITH DIAMOND BUOY
REPORTING 12 FEET AND 11 FEET 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUCK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
VEERING TO NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
4 TO 7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET ALL WATERS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N. EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. STILL SOME
SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ON THE WATERS. AGAIN
DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING
GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DIFFERING TRACKS OF LOW. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO
THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
THU INTO FRI BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS OVER OUTER
WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC







000
FXUS62 KILM 241646
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS WERE CLIMBING CLOSE TO 70 THIS
MORNING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S
TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND THE TEMPS. BEST CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE
SCATTERED FROM NW WILLIAMSBURG THROUGH FLORENCE INTO MARION HORRY AND
COLUMBUS COUNTIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHWRS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S IN DEEP MOIST SW FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD. LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVERALL. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ZIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION
UP TO 40S KTS. WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER AS WE CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE A LITTLE FURTHER WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND SOME
SPOTS MAY SEE ENHANCED HEATING WITH SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS
TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF
LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT ALIGNED FROM SW
TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES WITH CAA TO FOLLOW AFTER THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS IT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING THE COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MODERATE
S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT APPROACHES BY
DAYBREAK WITH 15 TO 20 KTS DROPPING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL









000
FXUS62 KILM 241646
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS WERE CLIMBING CLOSE TO 70 THIS
MORNING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S
TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND THE TEMPS. BEST CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE
SCATTERED FROM NW WILLIAMSBURG THROUGH FLORENCE INTO MARION HORRY AND
COLUMBUS COUNTIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHWRS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S IN DEEP MOIST SW FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD. LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVERALL. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ZIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION
UP TO 40S KTS. WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER AS WE CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE A LITTLE FURTHER WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND SOME
SPOTS MAY SEE ENHANCED HEATING WITH SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS
TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF
LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT ALIGNED FROM SW
TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES WITH CAA TO FOLLOW AFTER THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS IT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING THE COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MODERATE
S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT APPROACHES BY
DAYBREAK WITH 15 TO 20 KTS DROPPING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KRAH 241505
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241505
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 241424
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY AND RACE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 917 AM MON...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER MOVING NORTHEAST REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.
IN WARM SECTION BETWEEN DEPARTING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
APROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH CONTINUING CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF UPPER ENERGY OR
LIFT EVIDENT...BUT SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
TONIGHT. THE WINDS REMAIN SW UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY...THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FAVORED GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT HOLDS UP OFF THE COAST. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS FOR MODERATE RAIN MOST AREAS
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN SHLD TAPER
OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY GONE TO SCATTERED AT
KPGV AND KEWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...WITH KOAJ/KISO
REPORTING MVFR/IFR. WITH GOOD MIXING...THINK KEWN AND KPGV STAY
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE MVFR LIKELY TO
PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE AXIS AT KOAJ AND KISO. GUIDANCE
INDICATES CEILINGS DROP AROUND DARK WITH FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFR...BUT WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE
SHOWING MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE AS
LOCAL FOG TOOL AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT ANALYSIS SHOWS
MINIMAL THREAT OF FOG TONIGHT...SO WITH MIXED SIGNALS...WILL PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT
INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND SHLD CONT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 923 AM MON...SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT
9 TO 10 FEET. MODERATE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...MAJOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY AS WILL
LOWER GALES ALL WATERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS. WILL
ALSO DROP SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL INLAND WATERS WITH GENERALLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE SOUNDS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE RIVERS PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET SHOWING 14 FEET WITH DIAMOND BUOY
REPORTING 12 FEET AND 11 FEET 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUCK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
VEERING TO NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
4 TO 7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET ALL WATERS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N. EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. STILL SOME
SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ON THE WATERS. AGAIN
DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING
GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DIFFERING TRACKS OF LOW. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO
THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
THU INTO FRI BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS OVER OUTER
WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 241424
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY AND RACE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 917 AM MON...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER MOVING NORTHEAST REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.
IN WARM SECTION BETWEEN DEPARTING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
APROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH CONTINUING CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF UPPER ENERGY OR
LIFT EVIDENT...BUT SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
TONIGHT. THE WINDS REMAIN SW UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY...THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FAVORED GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT HOLDS UP OFF THE COAST. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS FOR MODERATE RAIN MOST AREAS
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN SHLD TAPER
OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY GONE TO SCATTERED AT
KPGV AND KEWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...WITH KOAJ/KISO
REPORTING MVFR/IFR. WITH GOOD MIXING...THINK KEWN AND KPGV STAY
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE MVFR LIKELY TO
PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE AXIS AT KOAJ AND KISO. GUIDANCE
INDICATES CEILINGS DROP AROUND DARK WITH FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFR...BUT WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE
SHOWING MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE AS
LOCAL FOG TOOL AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT ANALYSIS SHOWS
MINIMAL THREAT OF FOG TONIGHT...SO WITH MIXED SIGNALS...WILL PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT
INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND SHLD CONT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 923 AM MON...SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT
9 TO 10 FEET. MODERATE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...MAJOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY AS WILL
LOWER GALES ALL WATERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS. WILL
ALSO DROP SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL INLAND WATERS WITH GENERALLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE SOUNDS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE RIVERS PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET SHOWING 14 FEET WITH DIAMOND BUOY
REPORTING 12 FEET AND 11 FEET 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUCK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
VEERING TO NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
4 TO 7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET ALL WATERS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N. EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. STILL SOME
SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ON THE WATERS. AGAIN
DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING
GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DIFFERING TRACKS OF LOW. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO
THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
THU INTO FRI BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS OVER OUTER
WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 241147
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY AND RACE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. WITH EASTERN
NC IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ONCOMING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN
WEST TENNESSEE...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH SUCH A
WARM START...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE
NOVEMBER...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW 70S COAST.
HAVE CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
TONIGHT. THE WINDS REMAIN SW UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY...THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FAVORED GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT HOLDS UP OFF THE COAST. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS FOR MODERATE RAIN MOST AREAS
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN SHLD TAPER
OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY GONE TO SCATTERED AT
KPGV AND KEWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...WITH KOAJ/KISO
REPORTING MVFR/IFR. WITH GOOD MIXING...THINK KEWN AND KPGV STAY
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE MVFR LIKELY TO
PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE AXIS AT KOAJ AND KISO. GUIDANCE
INDICATES CEILINGS DROP AROUND DARK WITH FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFR...BUT WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE
SHOWING MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE AS
LOCAL FOG TOOL AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT ANALYSIS SHOWS
MINIMAL THREAT OF FOG TONIGHT...SO WITH MIXED SIGNALS...WILL PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT
INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND SHLD CONT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...MAJOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY AS WILL LOWER
GALES ALL WATERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS. WILL ALSO
DROP SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL INLAND WATERS WITH GENERALLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE SOUNDS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE RIVERS PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET SHOWING 14 FEET WITH DIAMOND
BUOY REPORTING 12 FEET AND 11 FEET 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUCK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE VEERING TO NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET ALL WATERS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N. EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. STILL SOME
SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ON THE WATERS. AGAIN
DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING
GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DIFFERING TRACKS OF LOW. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO
THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
THU INTO FRI BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS OVER OUTER
WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...RSB/CTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241147
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
647 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY AND RACE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. WITH EASTERN
NC IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ONCOMING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN
WEST TENNESSEE...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH SUCH A
WARM START...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE
NOVEMBER...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW 70S COAST.
HAVE CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
TONIGHT. THE WINDS REMAIN SW UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY...THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FAVORED GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT HOLDS UP OFF THE COAST. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS FOR MODERATE RAIN MOST AREAS
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN SHLD TAPER
OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY GONE TO SCATTERED AT
KPGV AND KEWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...WITH KOAJ/KISO
REPORTING MVFR/IFR. WITH GOOD MIXING...THINK KEWN AND KPGV STAY
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHILE MVFR LIKELY TO
PREVAIL CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE AXIS AT KOAJ AND KISO. GUIDANCE
INDICATES CEILINGS DROP AROUND DARK WITH FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFR...BUT WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE
SHOWING MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE AS
LOCAL FOG TOOL AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT ANALYSIS SHOWS
MINIMAL THREAT OF FOG TONIGHT...SO WITH MIXED SIGNALS...WILL PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT
INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND SHLD CONT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MONDAY...MAJOR CHANGES TO ADVISORY AS WILL LOWER
GALES ALL WATERS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS. WILL ALSO
DROP SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL INLAND WATERS WITH GENERALLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE SOUNDS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE RIVERS PER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET SHOWING 14 FEET WITH DIAMOND
BUOY REPORTING 12 FEET AND 11 FEET 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUCK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE VEERING TO NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET ALL WATERS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N. EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. STILL SOME
SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ON THE WATERS. AGAIN
DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING
GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DIFFERING TRACKS OF LOW. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO
THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
THU INTO FRI BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS OVER OUTER
WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...RSB/CTC







000
FXUS62 KRAH 241122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
622 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
622 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 241115
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF DRY SLOT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A
MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RAN




000
FXUS62 KILM 241115
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF DRY SLOT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A
MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RAN





000
FXUS62 KILM 241059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 241059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 240903
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...REK/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 240903
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
402 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM
START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...REK/SGL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY AND RACE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...AREA OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...LEAVING JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. WE REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WILL HAVE 20-30 PCT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS PER 3KM HRRR...RUC AND GFS/NAM12.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
TONIGHT. THE WINDS REMAIN SW UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
TUESDAY...THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY
TUESDAY. FAVORED GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS THE FRONT HOLDS UP OFF THE COAST. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS FOR MODERATE RAIN MOST AREAS
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. TOTAL QPF COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST. RAIN SHLD TAPER
OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS MORNING AT KEWN/KPGV...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VFR
AT KOAJ/KISO AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. STILL
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR ALL AREAS
AND PERHAPS VFR FOR A PERIOD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RETURNING TO IFR LATER THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT
INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND
CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF
LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AND SHLD CONT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WILL MAKE SOME CHANGES TO ADVISORIES THIS
UPDATE CYCLE. WILL LOWER THE ALLIGATOR...NEUSE/PAMLICO/PUNGO/BAY
RIVERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL ALSO
LOWER THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. CONTINUE
GALES ON ALL OTHER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
WINDS GUSTING TO 41 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND INTO THE 30S AT DUCK
AND HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION. SEAS REMAIN VERY ROUGH WITH 10
TO 13 FEET OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE VEERING TO NW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY
BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET ALL WATERS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS
LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N. EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. STILL SOME
SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS ON THE WATERS. AGAIN
DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING
GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE SOME GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN DIFFERING TRACKS OF LOW. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO
THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING.
SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
THU INTO FRI BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS OVER OUTER
WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE INTO FRI SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-150-156-
     158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...RSB/CTC






000
FXUS62 KRAH 240822
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240822
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240822
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240822
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240813
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...


THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240813
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...


THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240813
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...


THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240813
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...


THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 240555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A
LULL IN THE ACTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA CURRENTLY AND SHOULD
DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH
FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH- RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALTHOUGH ALL
STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WATERS. FORECAST UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 10 PM FOLLOWS:

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/III/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 240555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A
LULL IN THE ACTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA CURRENTLY AND SHOULD
DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE THROUGH
FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH- RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND FOG AFFECT THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...TAPERING OF WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG PERSISTS CREATING
MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT MVFR/IFR.
ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALTHOUGH ALL
STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WATERS. FORECAST UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 10 PM FOLLOWS:

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/III/MBB





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 240531
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ATTM. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
REMAINING OFFSHORE PER MESO ANALYSIS AND THINK THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS WANED ACROSS EASTERN NC. WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SPEED UP
PRECIPITATION WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING TO THE OUTER BANKS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z OR SO WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR WITH BETTER MIXING BY MID-
MORNING BUT RETURN TO IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...STRONG SSE/S WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS TO
37 KNOTS AT BOTH CAPE LOOKOUT AND DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE AS HIGH
AS 14 FEET AT BUOY 41036 AND 10-11 FEET ALONG OUR CENTRAL WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WILL ADJUST GALE WARNING
ENDING TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240531
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ATTM. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
REMAINING OFFSHORE PER MESO ANALYSIS AND THINK THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS WANED ACROSS EASTERN NC. WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SPEED UP
PRECIPITATION WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING TO THE OUTER BANKS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z OR SO WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR WITH BETTER MIXING BY MID-
MORNING BUT RETURN TO IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...STRONG SSE/S WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS TO
37 KNOTS AT BOTH CAPE LOOKOUT AND DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE AS HIGH
AS 14 FEET AT BUOY 41036 AND 10-11 FEET ALONG OUR CENTRAL WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WILL ADJUST GALE WARNING
ENDING TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240531
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ATTM. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
REMAINING OFFSHORE PER MESO ANALYSIS AND THINK THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS WANED ACROSS EASTERN NC. WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SPEED UP
PRECIPITATION WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING TO THE OUTER BANKS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z OR SO WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR WITH BETTER MIXING BY MID-
MORNING BUT RETURN TO IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...STRONG SSE/S WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS TO
37 KNOTS AT BOTH CAPE LOOKOUT AND DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE AS HIGH
AS 14 FEET AT BUOY 41036 AND 10-11 FEET ALONG OUR CENTRAL WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WILL ADJUST GALE WARNING
ENDING TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240531
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ATTM. BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
REMAINING OFFSHORE PER MESO ANALYSIS AND THINK THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS WANED ACROSS EASTERN NC. WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SPEED UP
PRECIPITATION WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING TO THE OUTER BANKS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z OR SO WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR WITH BETTER MIXING BY MID-
MORNING BUT RETURN TO IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...STRONG SSE/S WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS TO
37 KNOTS AT BOTH CAPE LOOKOUT AND DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE AS HIGH
AS 14 FEET AT BUOY 41036 AND 10-11 FEET ALONG OUR CENTRAL WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WILL ADJUST GALE WARNING
ENDING TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KILM 240458 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1158 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1158 PM SUNDAY...GALE WARNING IS EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE
NC WATERS...REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ANY RESIDUAL STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND WILL BE HANDLED BY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS RATHER THAN SYNOPTIC GALE PRODUCTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.



&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 240458 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1158 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1158 PM SUNDAY...GALE WARNING IS EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE
NC WATERS...REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ANY RESIDUAL STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND WILL BE HANDLED BY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS RATHER THAN SYNOPTIC GALE PRODUCTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY
AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN
MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS
RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER
PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS
FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE
HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS
LATE-EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.



&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 240322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH NORTHERN SC. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH EASTERN NC TONIGHT. TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS...WITH HRRR DOING A
GOOD JOB HANDLING CURRENT ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKING AT A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP OVERNIGHT...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH IF TIMING IS RIGHT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW STRONG TSTMS...ESP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY
VALUES. WITH STRONG LIFT AND PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.75 INCHES
OVERNIGHT EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. MAIN THREATS
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AT
THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SVR WX WILL BE BTWN 11PM-4AM.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
COASTAL SE NC MOVING NE WHICH MAY MOVE ACROSS ONSLOW/CARTERET
COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BEHIND
IT. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG CELLS MOVING IN OFF THE
WATERS WITH STRONG SELY FLOW.

EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY EARLY
IN THE LOW 60S...THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/NARRE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BTWN 01-05Z...AND HAVE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGREEMENT AND OBS UPSTREAM.
BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE BTWN
03-06Z...AND ISOLATED TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS COULD LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH 08/09Z BUT WILL CONTINUE IFR. IFR
COULD LINGER INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THINK GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
ALL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS SE
WINDS INCREASE BECOMING SLY 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-45KT. SEAS
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 4-8FT NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 7-13FT SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING AT 7-15FT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSENING SOME AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135>137-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/CQD
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KILM 240308
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1008 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE
MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE
GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL
ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.
SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD
HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS LATE-EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240308
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1008 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE
MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE
GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL
ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.
SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD
HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS LATE-EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240308
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1008 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE
MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE
GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL
ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.
SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD
HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS LATE-EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240308
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1008 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE CROSSING THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND SHOULD DROP A GENERAL 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AT THE SURFACE THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO
BE THROUGH FLORENCE AND IS APPROACHING MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELING INDICATES THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OR JUMP NORTHWARD VERY
QUICKLY WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. IN ORDER FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANALYSIS OF THE 03Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23Z RUC INDICATES WE NEED A
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 69 DEGREES F...EQUIVALENT TO A SURFACE
THETA-E VALUE OF 333K. ANYTHING LESS THAN THIS SHIFTS THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN POINT UPWARD OFF THE SURFACE WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION
IN SEVERE WEATHER RISK. 02/03Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE WE DO NOT HAVE
REQUISITE THETA-E VALUES IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ALL OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINS ELEVATED. THE DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD SPELL AN END TO THE SOLID PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE
MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IN GEORGETOWN BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN MYRTLE BEACH AND POINTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST. GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY REMAIN ABOVE
GALE-FORCE...AND WINDS AT THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH 33 KNOTS RECENTLY REPORTED ON TOPSAIL
ISLAND (MESONET) AND 30 KNOTS AT MERCER PIER ON WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.
SEAS ARE ALMOST FULLY DEVELOPED FOR THIS FETCH AND SPEED...13 FEET
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS...10 FEET AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH OF BALD
HEAD ISLAND...AND 9 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS LATE-EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 645 PM FOLLOWS...

THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND IS RACING UP THE COAST
AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
(21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR FRONT TO
CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11 PM...AND TO BE
NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE HERALDED BY A
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE
SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 240115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
810 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT
PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT. BOTH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION. 1)... THE EXPECTED IN-
SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC
PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA
(JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE... THROUGH THE TRIAD... AND INTO
SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME SE... AND GUSTY TO 20
MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND... BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC... BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT... LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT... AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD MOVING
WEDGE BOUNDARY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS/BSD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 240115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
810 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL FRONT
PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT. BOTH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION. 1)... THE EXPECTED IN-
SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC
PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA
(JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE... THROUGH THE TRIAD... AND INTO
SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME SE... AND GUSTY TO 20
MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND... BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC... BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW
PIEDMONT. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT... LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT... AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD MOVING
WEDGE BOUNDARY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS/BSD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 240007
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH WARM FRONT STILL DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH EASTERN NC TONIGHT. TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN GA AND SC MOVING THIS WAY.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS...WITH HRRR
DOING A GOOD JOB HANDLING CURRENT ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKING AT A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP OVERNIGHT...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT
WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH IF TIMING IS RIGHT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STRONG TSTMS. WITH STRONG LIFT AND PWAT
VALUES NEARING 1.75 INCHES OVERNIGHT EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. MAIN THREATS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SVR WX
WILL BE BTWN 10PM-4AM.

EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY EARLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/NARRE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BTWN 01-05Z...AND HAVE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGREEMENT AND OBS UPSTREAM.
BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE BTWN
03-06Z...AND ISOLATED TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS COULD LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH 08/09Z BUT WILL CONTINUE IFR. IFR
COULD LINGER INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THINK GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING SLIGHTLY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
TONIGHT AS SE WINDS INCREASE BECOMING SLY 20-30KT WITH GUSTS
35-45KT. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5FT NORTH OF HATTERAS TO
6-10FT SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING AT 7-14FT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSENING SOME AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/CQD
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KILM 240001
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE
RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE
UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING
FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA
THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND
IS RACING UP THE COAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE
TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE (21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS
FOR FRONT TO CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11
PM...AND TO BE NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BE HERALDED BY A SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND
NOW CROSSING THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE
LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240001
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE
RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE
UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING
FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA
THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND
IS RACING UP THE COAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE
TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE (21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS
FOR FRONT TO CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11
PM...AND TO BE NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BE HERALDED BY A SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND
NOW CROSSING THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE
LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240001
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE
RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE
UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING
FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA
THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND
IS RACING UP THE COAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE
TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE (21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS
FOR FRONT TO CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11
PM...AND TO BE NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BE HERALDED BY A SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND
NOW CROSSING THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE
LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240001
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...A WAVE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND NOW CROSSING THE SANTEE
RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SHORTLY. RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WAS MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS MOIST WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PRODUCED GENTLE
UNIFORM LIFT. THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SHORTLY IS BEING
FORCED BY EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NC/VA
THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BEAUFORT SC WESTWARD
ACROSS AUGUSTA GA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT A GOOD CLIP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BRINGING A NEARLY TROPICAL AIRMASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES F. WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 400-600
M^2/S^2 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THESE CELLS TO ROTATE. I
FEEL THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW SINCE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES AND
WINDS BELOW 925 MB VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE THE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE UNIDIRECTIONAL REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. IF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 70 F MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE STABLE WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED AND THEREFORE INHERENTLY LESS
DANGEROUS. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING
WATCHING FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A STATEMENT OR SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR EXPECT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UNSETTLED WEATHER ALLOWS FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG...TO AFFECT THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WHILE OBS ARE REPORTING LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG CREATING
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR WINDS EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
ANY TSRA. LATE OVERNIGHT...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF...BUT WILL
CONTINUING TO SEE DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG
PERSISTS. WHILE LIFR CANNOT BE RULE OUT...OVERALL ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR. INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW CIGS WITH
AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THUS EXPECT MVFR/IFR. COULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SPOTS...BUT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH AND
IS RACING UP THE COAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. MOST RECENT MODELS ARE
TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING...BUT AMONG THOSE THAT SEEM TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE (21Z HRRR, 22Z RUC, 12Z ECMWF) THE LATEST THINKING IS
FOR FRONT TO CROSS THE SANTEE RIVER 8-9 PM...CAPE FEAR AROUND 11
PM...AND TO BE NORTH OF TOPSAIL ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BE HERALDED BY A SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER HEAVY
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GEORGIA AND
NOW CROSSING THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE THE
LARGEST THREATS.

WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER GALE FORCE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS. BUOY 41004 EAST OF CHARLESTON IS IN
THE SAME ENVIRONMENT AND HAS ALSO GUSTED OVER GALE FORCE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLOSER TO SHORE THE COLDER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURE ON THE
SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF IS INDUCED A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. DESPITE
WINDS JUST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO REACH 50 KNOTS
IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS...WIND SPEEDS DOWN AT THE OCEAN SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SC WATERS...AND 25-35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NC WATERS WITH A HIGHER GUSTS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MID 60S.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 232147 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
447 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM RISES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL BEGIN A CLEARING TREND ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH EVEN AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT
THE ISENTROPIC UP-GLIDE ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TO
THE POINT THAT RAINFALL MAY BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LOOKING FOR RADAR TO FILL LATER ON FROM SW TO NE AS ENERGY
FROM THE WEAKENING VORT NOW SEEN OVER MS IMPINGES UPON THE REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA SEES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE OVERDONE. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ACCELERATING...LOOKS LIKE ANY TIME SOON AFTER 03Z IT MAY START
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF STRENGTHENING DRAMATICALLY ALTHOUGH CHS AND KLTX VWPS SHOW THAT
THE WRF IS TOO FAST AND TOO STRONG. ACCORD TO THE MORE TEMPERED GFS
A SOLID 50KT AT JUST 925MB CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z
AND AREA-WIDE BY 06Z. PAIR THIS WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES
AND THERE IS STILL A WIDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION
TORNADOES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKING FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...THE
FIRST BATCH WITH A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND BATCH TONIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX.
TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG HELICITY BUT NO CAPE
TO SPEAK OF. NEVERTHELESS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BY
06-07Z. MODELS REALLY BRING CEILINGS/VIS DOWN ONCE THE VORT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SHUTTING OFF. THE MODELS REALLY WANT
TO KEEP VISIBILITIES LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THE BACK IN PERIOD...BUT
WITH WINDS OVER 10 KTS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. LOOK FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IFR THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM SUNDAY...A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUST TO 45 KNOTS
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY CERTAINLY
GRABBED MY ATTENTION. A GALE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NC WATERS...VALID NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VIRTUALLY ALL SHORT-
RANGE GUIDANCE (LATEST RRR AND RUC PLUS THE 18Z NAM) BRING A SWATH
OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE 1000-950 MB LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTOR DIMINISHING WIND
SPEEDS DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE IS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY
INDUCED BY COLD OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT
INHIBITED VERTICAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SOUTHWEST OF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE UPPER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM
INCREASING ABOVE 30 KNOTS EVEN AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM FOLLOWS...

DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MARINE WINDS LAST THREE HOURS AS 41013 NOW A
SOLID 29KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. AND WHILE A SHORT-
FUSED GALE WARNING MAY BE PREFERRED BY THE NEXT SHIFT CURRENTLY
HOPING THAT COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL RETARD MANY GALE FORCE GUSTS
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DESPITE THE SCREAMING LOW LEVEL
JET ALL NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN AFTER COLLAB WITH CHS THAT BUOYS
MAY BE EXPERIENCING STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS THAN NEAR SHORE
WATERS ON ACCOUNT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OUT THERE AND THUS DEEPER
MIXING. A STRONG ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
BEYOND.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 232147 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
447 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM RISES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL BEGIN A CLEARING TREND ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH EVEN AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT
THE ISENTROPIC UP-GLIDE ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TO
THE POINT THAT RAINFALL MAY BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LOOKING FOR RADAR TO FILL LATER ON FROM SW TO NE AS ENERGY
FROM THE WEAKENING VORT NOW SEEN OVER MS IMPINGES UPON THE REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA SEES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE OVERDONE. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ACCELERATING...LOOKS LIKE ANY TIME SOON AFTER 03Z IT MAY START
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF STRENGTHENING DRAMATICALLY ALTHOUGH CHS AND KLTX VWPS SHOW THAT
THE WRF IS TOO FAST AND TOO STRONG. ACCORD TO THE MORE TEMPERED GFS
A SOLID 50KT AT JUST 925MB CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z
AND AREA-WIDE BY 06Z. PAIR THIS WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES
AND THERE IS STILL A WIDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION
TORNADOES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKING FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...THE
FIRST BATCH WITH A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND BATCH TONIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX.
TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG HELICITY BUT NO CAPE
TO SPEAK OF. NEVERTHELESS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BY
06-07Z. MODELS REALLY BRING CEILINGS/VIS DOWN ONCE THE VORT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SHUTTING OFF. THE MODELS REALLY WANT
TO KEEP VISIBILITIES LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THE BACK IN PERIOD...BUT
WITH WINDS OVER 10 KTS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. LOOK FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IFR THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM SUNDAY...A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUST TO 45 KNOTS
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY CERTAINLY
GRABBED MY ATTENTION. A GALE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NC WATERS...VALID NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VIRTUALLY ALL SHORT-
RANGE GUIDANCE (LATEST RRR AND RUC PLUS THE 18Z NAM) BRING A SWATH
OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE 1000-950 MB LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTOR DIMINISHING WIND
SPEEDS DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE IS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY
INDUCED BY COLD OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT
INHIBITED VERTICAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SOUTHWEST OF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE UPPER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM
INCREASING ABOVE 30 KNOTS EVEN AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM FOLLOWS...

DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MARINE WINDS LAST THREE HOURS AS 41013 NOW A
SOLID 29KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. AND WHILE A SHORT-
FUSED GALE WARNING MAY BE PREFERRED BY THE NEXT SHIFT CURRENTLY
HOPING THAT COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL RETARD MANY GALE FORCE GUSTS
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DESPITE THE SCREAMING LOW LEVEL
JET ALL NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN AFTER COLLAB WITH CHS THAT BUOYS
MAY BE EXPERIENCING STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS THAN NEAR SHORE
WATERS ON ACCOUNT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OUT THERE AND THUS DEEPER
MIXING. A STRONG ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
BEYOND.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 232119
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM RISES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL BEGIN A CLEARING TREND ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH EVEN AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT
THE ISENTROPIC UP-GLIDE ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TO
THE POINT THAT RAINFALL MAY BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LOOKING FOR RADAR TO FILL LATER ON FROM SW TO NE AS ENERGY
FROM THE WEAKENING VORT NOW SEEN OVER MS IMPINGES UPON THE REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA SEES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE OVERDONE. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ACCELERATING...LOOKS LIKE ANY TIME SOON AFTER 03Z IT MAY START
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF STRENGTHENING DRAMATICALLY ALTHOUGH CHS AND KLTX VWPS SHOW THAT
THE WRF IS TOO FAST AND TOO STRONG. ACCORD TO THE MORE TEMPERED GFS
A SOLID 50KT AT JUST 925MB CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z
AND AREA-WIDE BY 06Z. PAIR THIS WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES
AND THERE IS STILL A WIDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION
TORNADOES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...LOOKING FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...THE
FIRST BATCH WITH A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND BATCH TONIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX.
TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG HELICITY BUT NO CAPE
TO SPEAK OF. NEVERTHELESS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BY
06-07Z. MODELS REALLY BRING CEILINGS/VIS DOWN ONCE THE VORT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SHUTTING OFF. THE MODELS REALLY WANT
TO KEEP VISIBILITIES LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THE BACK IN PERIOD...BUT
WITH WINDS OVER 10 KTS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. LOOK FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IFR THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MARINE WINDS LAST
THREE HOURS AS 41013 NOW A SOLID 29KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE. AND WHILE A SHORT-FUSED GALE WARNING MAY BE PREFERRED
BY THE NEXT SHIFT CURRENTLY HOPING THAT COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL
RETARD MANY GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DESPITE THE SCREAMING LOW LEVEL JET ALL NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN
AFTER COLLAB WITH CHS THAT BUOYS MAY BE EXPERIENCING STRONGER
WINDS AND GUSTS THAN NEAR SHORE WATERS ON ACCOUNT OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP OUT THERE AND THUS DEEPER MIXING. A STRONG ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
         256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MBB






000
FXUS62 KILM 232119
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
419 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM RISES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES
WILL BEGIN A CLEARING TREND ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT HAS LIFTED TO OUR
NORTH EVEN AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT
THE ISENTROPIC UP-GLIDE ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TO
THE POINT THAT RAINFALL MAY BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. LOOKING FOR RADAR TO FILL LATER ON FROM SW TO NE AS ENERGY
FROM THE WEAKENING VORT NOW SEEN OVER MS IMPINGES UPON THE REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA SEES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE OVERDONE. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ACCELERATING...LOOKS LIKE ANY TIME SOON AFTER 03Z IT MAY START
AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF STRENGTHENING DRAMATICALLY ALTHOUGH CHS AND KLTX VWPS SHOW THAT
THE WRF IS TOO FAST AND TOO STRONG. ACCORD TO THE MORE TEMPERED GFS
A SOLID 50KT AT JUST 925MB CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z
AND AREA-WIDE BY 06Z. PAIR THIS WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES
AND THERE IS STILL A WIDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION
TORNADOES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE
AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70
TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A
CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL
WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND
EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW
END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE
GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED
INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.

SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...LOOKING FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...THE
FIRST BATCH WITH A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND BATCH TONIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX.
TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG HELICITY BUT NO CAPE
TO SPEAK OF. NEVERTHELESS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BY
06-07Z. MODELS REALLY BRING CEILINGS/VIS DOWN ONCE THE VORT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SHUTTING OFF. THE MODELS REALLY WANT
TO KEEP VISIBILITIES LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THE BACK IN PERIOD...BUT
WITH WINDS OVER 10 KTS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. LOOK FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IFR THROUGH
MOST IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MARINE WINDS LAST
THREE HOURS AS 41013 NOW A SOLID 29KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE. AND WHILE A SHORT-FUSED GALE WARNING MAY BE PREFERRED
BY THE NEXT SHIFT CURRENTLY HOPING THAT COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL
RETARD MANY GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DESPITE THE SCREAMING LOW LEVEL JET ALL NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN
AFTER COLLAB WITH CHS THAT BUOYS MAY BE EXPERIENCING STRONGER
WINDS AND GUSTS THAN NEAR SHORE WATERS ON ACCOUNT OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP OUT THERE AND THUS DEEPER MIXING. A STRONG ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH
SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE
SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE
UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST
BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
         256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MBB







000
FXUS62 KRAH 232041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILED AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING TODAY WITH PW NOW UP TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN DRIVEN BY 295-300K LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MOIST LLJ THIS EVENING.

TIMING... THE LLJ WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH A STRONG 850MB WARM FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 15C.  THE NAM PRODUCES A BIT MORE MUCAPE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT 300-600 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OCCURS WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AFTER
00Z. LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER NC TODAY HAS LEAD TO A
WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS...WHICH WILL RETARD BOTH THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT AND TRUE WARM FRONT.  PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE WEDGE
FRONT WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...WHILE THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE 850MB FRONT AROUND 00Z..AND THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN MCS/EFFECTIVE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT... HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND A TORNADO THREAT...PROVIDED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS (STILL THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR).  SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE "PRE-FRONTAL"
CONVECTION AND WITHIN THE PRIMARY BAND ITSELF.  SPC HAS FOCUSED THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE LESSER MARGINAL RISK
ALONG I-95.

ONCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIP WILL COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART.  WHILE THE DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NC... THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER COASTAL NC...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY HOLD AROUND THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS/BSD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 232041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILED AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING TODAY WITH PW NOW UP TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN DRIVEN BY 295-300K LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MOIST LLJ THIS EVENING.

TIMING... THE LLJ WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH A STRONG 850MB WARM FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 15C.  THE NAM PRODUCES A BIT MORE MUCAPE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT 300-600 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OCCURS WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AFTER
00Z. LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER NC TODAY HAS LEAD TO A
WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS...WHICH WILL RETARD BOTH THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT AND TRUE WARM FRONT.  PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE WEDGE
FRONT WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...WHILE THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE 850MB FRONT AROUND 00Z..AND THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN MCS/EFFECTIVE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT... HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND A TORNADO THREAT...PROVIDED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS (STILL THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR).  SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE "PRE-FRONTAL"
CONVECTION AND WITHIN THE PRIMARY BAND ITSELF.  SPC HAS FOCUSED THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE LESSER MARGINAL RISK
ALONG I-95.

ONCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIP WILL COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART.  WHILE THE DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NC... THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER COASTAL NC...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY HOLD AROUND THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS/BSD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 232041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILED AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING TODAY WITH PW NOW UP TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN DRIVEN BY 295-300K LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MOIST LLJ THIS EVENING.

TIMING... THE LLJ WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH A STRONG 850MB WARM FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 15C.  THE NAM PRODUCES A BIT MORE MUCAPE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT 300-600 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OCCURS WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AFTER
00Z. LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER NC TODAY HAS LEAD TO A
WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS...WHICH WILL RETARD BOTH THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT AND TRUE WARM FRONT.  PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE WEDGE
FRONT WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...WHILE THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE 850MB FRONT AROUND 00Z..AND THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN MCS/EFFECTIVE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT... HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND A TORNADO THREAT...PROVIDED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS (STILL THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR).  SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE "PRE-FRONTAL"
CONVECTION AND WITHIN THE PRIMARY BAND ITSELF.  SPC HAS FOCUSED THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE LESSER MARGINAL RISK
ALONG I-95.

ONCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIP WILL COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART.  WHILE THE DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NC... THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER COASTAL NC...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY HOLD AROUND THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS/BSD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 232041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILED AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING TODAY WITH PW NOW UP TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN DRIVEN BY 295-300K LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MOIST LLJ THIS EVENING.

TIMING... THE LLJ WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH A STRONG 850MB WARM FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 15C.  THE NAM PRODUCES A BIT MORE MUCAPE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT 300-600 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OCCURS WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AFTER
00Z. LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER NC TODAY HAS LEAD TO A
WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS...WHICH WILL RETARD BOTH THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT AND TRUE WARM FRONT.  PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE WEDGE
FRONT WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...WHILE THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE 850MB FRONT AROUND 00Z..AND THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN MCS/EFFECTIVE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT... HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND A TORNADO THREAT...PROVIDED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS (STILL THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR).  SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE "PRE-FRONTAL"
CONVECTION AND WITHIN THE PRIMARY BAND ITSELF.  SPC HAS FOCUSED THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE LESSER MARGINAL RISK
ALONG I-95.

ONCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIP WILL COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART.  WHILE THE DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NC... THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER COASTAL NC...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY HOLD AROUND THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS/BSD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 232009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILED AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING TODAY WITH PW NOW UP TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN DRIVEN BY 295-300K LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MOIST LLJ THIS EVENING.

TIMING... THE LLJ WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH A STRONG 850MB WARM FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 15C.  THE NAM PRODUCES A BIT MORE MUCAPE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT 300-600 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OCCURS WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AFTER
00Z. LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER NC TODAY HAS LEAD TO A
WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS...WHICH WILL RETARD BOTH THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT AND TRUE WARM FRONT.  PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE WEDGE
FRONT WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...WHILE THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE 850MB FRONT AROUND 00Z..AND THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN MCS/EFFECTIVE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT... HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND A TORNADO THREAT...PROVIDED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS (STILL THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR).  SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE "PRE-FRONTAL"
CONVECTION AND WITHIN THE PRIMARY BAND ITSELF.  SPC HAS FOCUSED THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE LESSER MARGINAL RISK
ALONG I-95.

ONCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIP WILL COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART.  WHILE THE DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NC... THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER COASTAL NC...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY HOLD AROUND THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS/BSD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 232009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILED AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE HAS BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING TODAY WITH PW NOW UP TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN DRIVEN BY 295-300K LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MOIST LLJ THIS EVENING.

TIMING... THE LLJ WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH A STRONG 850MB WARM FRONT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 15C.  THE NAM PRODUCES A BIT MORE MUCAPE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT 300-600 J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LESS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY OCCURS WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AFTER
00Z. LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER NC TODAY HAS LEAD TO A
WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS...WHICH WILL RETARD BOTH THE RETREATING
WEDGE FRONT AND TRUE WARM FRONT.  PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE WEDGE
FRONT WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...WHILE THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE 850MB FRONT AROUND 00Z..AND THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN MCS/EFFECTIVE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT... HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY...BUT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND A TORNADO THREAT...PROVIDED LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS (STILL THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR).  SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE "PRE-FRONTAL"
CONVECTION AND WITHIN THE PRIMARY BAND ITSELF.  SPC HAS FOCUSED THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH THE LESSER MARGINAL RISK
ALONG I-95.

ONCE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIP WILL COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART.  WHILE THE DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NC... THE PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WILL BECOME ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVER COASTAL NC...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY HOLD AROUND THE MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS/BSD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 231930
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 121 PM SUN...DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER TROUGH STARTING TO LIFT THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFE
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WITH 60 KNOT JET EVIDENT AT 8H AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CAPES REMAINING LOW...MAINLY BELOW 1000
J/KG...WITH LI AROUND -2. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHEAR AND
FORECAST SRH WELL OVER 1000 M2/S2...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 TONIGHT
SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT. AREA CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BEST OMEGA FROM AROUND 0Z THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. AS UPPER ENERGY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTLY WIND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS AND GRADIENT INCREASES. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON MONDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOWING SEAS UPWARDS OF 15 FEET
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSENING SOME AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231930
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 121 PM SUN...DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER TROUGH STARTING TO LIFT THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFE
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WITH 60 KNOT JET EVIDENT AT 8H AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CAPES REMAINING LOW...MAINLY BELOW 1000
J/KG...WITH LI AROUND -2. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHEAR AND
FORECAST SRH WELL OVER 1000 M2/S2...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 TONIGHT
SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT. AREA CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BEST OMEGA FROM AROUND 0Z THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. AS UPPER ENERGY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTLY WIND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS AND GRADIENT INCREASES. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON MONDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOWING SEAS UPWARDS OF 15 FEET
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSENING SOME AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231930
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 121 PM SUN...DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER TROUGH STARTING TO LIFT THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFE
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WITH 60 KNOT JET EVIDENT AT 8H AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CAPES REMAINING LOW...MAINLY BELOW 1000
J/KG...WITH LI AROUND -2. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHEAR AND
FORECAST SRH WELL OVER 1000 M2/S2...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 TONIGHT
SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT. AREA CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BEST OMEGA FROM AROUND 0Z THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. AS UPPER ENERGY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTLY WIND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS AND GRADIENT INCREASES. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON MONDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOWING SEAS UPWARDS OF 15 FEET
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSENING SOME AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231930
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 121 PM SUN...DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER TROUGH STARTING TO LIFT THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFE
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WITH 60 KNOT JET EVIDENT AT 8H AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CAPES REMAINING LOW...MAINLY BELOW 1000
J/KG...WITH LI AROUND -2. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHEAR AND
FORECAST SRH WELL OVER 1000 M2/S2...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 TONIGHT
SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT. AREA CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BEST OMEGA FROM AROUND 0Z THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. AS UPPER ENERGY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTLY WIND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS AND GRADIENT INCREASES. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON MONDAY. LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOWING SEAS UPWARDS OF 15 FEET
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSENING SOME AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF







000
FXUS62 KRAH 231903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  OUT
OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREAS OVER NC AND THE
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT THUS FAR...LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN OVER SC WILL SPREAD IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AN
IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS RAIN SPREADS NORTH THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY
TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY 18Z.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EXPANSION OF PRECIP.  THERE MAY BE BIT OF
A LULL IN RAIN AFTER 18Z...BEFORE A BETTER SURGE OF 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND 21Z. REGIONAL OBS
SHOW THE SFC AND 850MB WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN AL/GA...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE SMALL SEVERE THREAT TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. -BLS

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70
KTS. AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASEING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS/BSD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 231903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  OUT
OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREAS OVER NC AND THE
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT THUS FAR...LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN OVER SC WILL SPREAD IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AN
IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS RAIN SPREADS NORTH THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY
TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY 18Z.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EXPANSION OF PRECIP.  THERE MAY BE BIT OF
A LULL IN RAIN AFTER 18Z...BEFORE A BETTER SURGE OF 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND 21Z. REGIONAL OBS
SHOW THE SFC AND 850MB WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN AL/GA...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE SMALL SEVERE THREAT TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. -BLS

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70
KTS. AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT LOW CEILINGS FROM
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KFAY.  EXPECT ALL SITES TO DROP TO IFR BY 21Z AND
STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.  LATE THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD CASE SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT KFAY
AND KRWI BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH ALL
THE WAY PAST KRDU TO KGSO/KINT...THOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT THE TRIAD TERMINALS.  AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FROM KRDU WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.

AFTER 06Z...AN EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.  WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCREASEING TO AS HIGH AS 30-35KT DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.   THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WON COMPLETELY SCOUR UNTIL THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS/BSD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1218 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOME LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DEWPOINTS INCREASING. BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING MOIST AIR TO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FEET BUT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BY 21Z.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURING BETWEEN
AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY DOESNT APPEAR TO
RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP WINDS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1218 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOME LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DEWPOINTS INCREASING. BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING MOIST AIR TO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FEET BUT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BY 21Z.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURING BETWEEN
AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY DOESNT APPEAR TO
RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP WINDS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1218 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOME LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DEWPOINTS INCREASING. BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING MOIST AIR TO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FEET BUT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BY 21Z.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURING BETWEEN
AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY DOESNT APPEAR TO
RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP WINDS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1218 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOME LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DEWPOINTS INCREASING. BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING MOIST AIR TO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FEET BUT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BY 21Z.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURING BETWEEN
AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY DOESNT APPEAR TO
RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP WINDS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC







000
FXUS62 KILM 231702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1202 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND...RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL LOCALES WARMED UP A LOT FASTER THAN
FORECAST BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT SEEMINGLY IN NEED OF ANY CHANGES.
LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS SLIGHTLY RAISED TORNADO PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AT
ALL AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COVERS THIS WELL. ONCE AGAIN THERE
WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF WIND SHEAR OR LIFT THIS EVENING...BUT
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO DEVELOP IN ORDER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO PAN
OUT. EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY CERTAINLY INDICATE THAT SOLAR HEATING
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...SO IT`LL ALL HAVE TO COME FROM ADVECTION.
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS WILL BE TOUGH...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG
SHEAR SPECIFICALLY FOUND IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL NOT HAVE TO BE DEEP AT ALL TO ACQUIRE ROTATION.

AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...S/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTN. MODELS INDICATE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THIS UPPER S/W TROF AS IT LIFTS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHAT WELL DISPLACED FROM THE SFC LOW THAT
IS MOVING NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST. WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK
WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MON HOURS.
STRATIFORM RAINS IE. EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
SOURCE AREAS ARE UTILIZED. DECENT WIND DIRECTION VEERING PROFILE
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH WIND
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT AT THE SFC...UP TO 60 KT AT 925 MB.
WITH WIND SHEAR LIKE THIS...ANY CONVECTION THAT TAPS INTO THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO DUE TO FAVORABLE HELICITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...THE AVBL INSTABILITY
IE. CAPE...WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA.

AN ABNORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL BE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE...
WITH TODAYS HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR
SO ENSUING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET
SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN
INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT
TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY
TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKING FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...THE FIRST
BATCH WITH A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND BATCH TONIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX.
TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG HELICITY BUT NO CAPE TO
SPEAK OF. NEVERTHELESS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST. VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BY 06-07Z.
MODELS REALLY BRING CEILINGS/VIS DOWN ONCE THE VORT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SHUTTING OFF. THE MODELS REALLY WANT TO
KEEP VISIBILITIES LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THE BACK IN PERIOD...BUT WITH
WINDS OVER 10 KTS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. LOOK FOR GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IFR THROUGH MOST IF
NOT ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING ONSHORE E TO SE
WINDS DURING TODAY...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS
AS IT LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...
FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IF
WATER TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S...A
GALE WARNING WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT UPPER S/W TROF
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
AS ONSHORE WINDS MAKE SURE OF THAT. SIG. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THERE-AFTER IN SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
IN THE 5.0 TO 6.5 SECONDS RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
VIA A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FEET. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD SETTLING NICELY INTO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY WITH 3-7 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
VALUES DROP TO 2-4 FEET THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL













000
FXUS62 KILM 231702
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1202 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND...RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL LOCALES WARMED UP A LOT FASTER THAN
FORECAST BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT SEEMINGLY IN NEED OF ANY CHANGES.
LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS SLIGHTLY RAISED TORNADO PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AT
ALL AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COVERS THIS WELL. ONCE AGAIN THERE
WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF WIND SHEAR OR LIFT THIS EVENING...BUT
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO DEVELOP IN ORDER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO PAN
OUT. EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY CERTAINLY INDICATE THAT SOLAR HEATING
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...SO IT`LL ALL HAVE TO COME FROM ADVECTION.
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS WILL BE TOUGH...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG
SHEAR SPECIFICALLY FOUND IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL NOT HAVE TO BE DEEP AT ALL TO ACQUIRE ROTATION.

AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...S/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTN. MODELS INDICATE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THIS UPPER S/W TROF AS IT LIFTS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHAT WELL DISPLACED FROM THE SFC LOW THAT
IS MOVING NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST. WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK
WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MON HOURS.
STRATIFORM RAINS IE. EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
SOURCE AREAS ARE UTILIZED. DECENT WIND DIRECTION VEERING PROFILE
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH WIND
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT AT THE SFC...UP TO 60 KT AT 925 MB.
WITH WIND SHEAR LIKE THIS...ANY CONVECTION THAT TAPS INTO THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO DUE TO FAVORABLE HELICITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...THE AVBL INSTABILITY
IE. CAPE...WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA.

AN ABNORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL BE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE...
WITH TODAYS HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR
SO ENSUING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET
SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN
INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT
TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY
TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOKING FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...THE FIRST
BATCH WITH A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND BATCH TONIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX.
TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG HELICITY BUT NO CAPE TO
SPEAK OF. NEVERTHELESS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST. VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BY 06-07Z.
MODELS REALLY BRING CEILINGS/VIS DOWN ONCE THE VORT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SHUTTING OFF. THE MODELS REALLY WANT TO
KEEP VISIBILITIES LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THE BACK IN PERIOD...BUT WITH
WINDS OVER 10 KTS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. LOOK FOR GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IFR THROUGH MOST IF
NOT ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING ONSHORE E TO SE
WINDS DURING TODAY...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS
AS IT LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...
FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IF
WATER TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S...A
GALE WARNING WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT UPPER S/W TROF
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
AS ONSHORE WINDS MAKE SURE OF THAT. SIG. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THERE-AFTER IN SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
IN THE 5.0 TO 6.5 SECONDS RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
VIA A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FEET. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD SETTLING NICELY INTO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY WITH 3-7 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
VALUES DROP TO 2-4 FEET THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 231651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1151 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1151 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1151 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1151 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC








000
FXUS62 KILM 231513
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND...RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL LOCALES WARMED UP A LOT FASTER THAN
FORECAST BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT SEEMINGLY IN NEED OF ANY CHANGES.
LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS SLIGHTLY RAISED TORNADO PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AT
ALL AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COVERS THIS WELL. ONCE AGAIN THERE
WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF WIND SHEAR OR LIFT THIS EVENING...BUT
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO DEVELOP IN ORDER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO PAN
OUT. EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY CERTAINLY INDICATE THAT SOLAR HEATING
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...SO IT`LL ALL HAVE TO COME FROM ADVECTION.
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS WILL BE TOUGH...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG
SHEAR SPECIFICALLY FOUND IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL NOT HAVE TO BE DEEP AT ALL TO ACQUIRE ROTATION.

AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...S/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTN. MODELS INDICATE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THIS UPPER S/W TROF AS IT LIFTS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHAT WELL DISPLACED FROM THE SFC LOW THAT
IS MOVING NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST. WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK
WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MON HOURS.
STRATIFORM RAINS IE. EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
SOURCE AREAS ARE UTILIZED. DECENT WIND DIRECTION VEERING PROFILE
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH WIND
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT AT THE SFC...UP TO 60 KT AT 925 MB.
WITH WIND SHEAR LIKE THIS...ANY CONVECTION THAT TAPS INTO THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO DUE TO FAVORABLE HELICITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...THE AVBL INSTABILITY
IE. CAPE...WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA.

AN ABNORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL BE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE...
WITH TODAYS HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR
SO ENSUING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET
SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN
INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT
TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY
TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A SLOW DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SLOWLY INCREASES. FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...POORLY DEPICTED BY THE HRRR
BY THE WAY. A SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE WITH MOVE THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. MODERATE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION
INDUCED CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF CEILINGS. MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY
WILL BE STRATIFORM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

THIS EVENING...AN UPPER VORT MAX WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG HELICITY BUT LITTLE TO NO CAPE WILL HARD TO RECONCILE.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PUSH
TO THE COAST BY 05-06Z. BEHIND THE VORT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO SHUT
OFF WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING ONSHORE E TO SE
WINDS DURING TODAY...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS
AS IT LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...
FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IF
WATER TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S...A
GALE WARNING WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT UPPER S/W TROF
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
AS ONSHORE WINDS MAKE SURE OF THAT. SIG. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THERE-AFTER IN SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
IN THE 5.0 TO 6.5 SECONDS RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
VIA A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FEET. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD SETTLING NICELY INTO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY WITH 3-7 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
VALUES DROP TO 2-4 FEET THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL










000
FXUS62 KILM 231513
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND...RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...COASTAL LOCALES WARMED UP A LOT FASTER THAN
FORECAST BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT SEEMINGLY IN NEED OF ANY CHANGES.
LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS SLIGHTLY RAISED TORNADO PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AT
ALL AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COVERS THIS WELL. ONCE AGAIN THERE
WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF WIND SHEAR OR LIFT THIS EVENING...BUT
INSTABILITY NEEDS TO DEVELOP IN ORDER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO PAN
OUT. EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY CERTAINLY INDICATE THAT SOLAR HEATING
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...SO IT`LL ALL HAVE TO COME FROM ADVECTION.
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS WILL BE TOUGH...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG
SHEAR SPECIFICALLY FOUND IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL NOT HAVE TO BE DEEP AT ALL TO ACQUIRE ROTATION.

AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...S/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTN. MODELS INDICATE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THIS UPPER S/W TROF AS IT LIFTS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHAT WELL DISPLACED FROM THE SFC LOW THAT
IS MOVING NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST. WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK
WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MON HOURS.
STRATIFORM RAINS IE. EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
SOURCE AREAS ARE UTILIZED. DECENT WIND DIRECTION VEERING PROFILE
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH WIND
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT AT THE SFC...UP TO 60 KT AT 925 MB.
WITH WIND SHEAR LIKE THIS...ANY CONVECTION THAT TAPS INTO THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO DUE TO FAVORABLE HELICITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...THE AVBL INSTABILITY
IE. CAPE...WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA.

AN ABNORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL BE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE...
WITH TODAYS HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR
SO ENSUING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET
SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN
INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT
TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY
TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A SLOW DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SLOWLY INCREASES. FIRST BATCH
OF PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...POORLY DEPICTED BY THE HRRR
BY THE WAY. A SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE WITH MOVE THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. MODERATE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION
INDUCED CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF CEILINGS. MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY
WILL BE STRATIFORM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

THIS EVENING...AN UPPER VORT MAX WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG HELICITY BUT LITTLE TO NO CAPE WILL HARD TO RECONCILE.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PUSH
TO THE COAST BY 05-06Z. BEHIND THE VORT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO SHUT
OFF WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING ONSHORE E TO SE
WINDS DURING TODAY...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS
AS IT LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...
FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IF
WATER TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S...A
GALE WARNING WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT UPPER S/W TROF
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
AS ONSHORE WINDS MAKE SURE OF THAT. SIG. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THERE-AFTER IN SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
IN THE 5.0 TO 6.5 SECONDS RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
VIA A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FEET. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD SETTLING NICELY INTO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY WITH 3-7 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
VALUES DROP TO 2-4 FEET THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL









000
FXUS62 KRAH 231456
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  OUT
OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREAS OVER NC AND THE
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT THUS FAR...LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN OVER SC WILL SPREAD IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AN
IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS RAIN SPREADS NORTH THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY
TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY 18Z.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EXPANSION OF PRECIP.  THERE MAY BE BIT OF
A LULL IN RAIN AFTER 18Z...BEFORE A BETTER SURGE OF 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND 21Z. REGIONAL OBS
SHOW THE SFC AND 850MB WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN AL/GA...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE SMALL SEVERE THREAT TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. -BLS

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70
KTS. AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 231456
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  OUT
OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREAS OVER NC AND THE
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT THUS FAR...LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN OVER SC WILL SPREAD IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AN
IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS RAIN SPREADS NORTH THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY
TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY 18Z.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EXPANSION OF PRECIP.  THERE MAY BE BIT OF
A LULL IN RAIN AFTER 18Z...BEFORE A BETTER SURGE OF 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND 21Z. REGIONAL OBS
SHOW THE SFC AND 850MB WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN AL/GA...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE SMALL SEVERE THREAT TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. -BLS

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70
KTS. AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 231456
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  OUT
OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREAS OVER NC AND THE
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT THUS FAR...LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN OVER SC WILL SPREAD IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AN
IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS RAIN SPREADS NORTH THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY
TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY 18Z.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EXPANSION OF PRECIP.  THERE MAY BE BIT OF
A LULL IN RAIN AFTER 18Z...BEFORE A BETTER SURGE OF 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND 21Z. REGIONAL OBS
SHOW THE SFC AND 850MB WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN AL/GA...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE SMALL SEVERE THREAT TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. -BLS

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70
KTS. AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 231456
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STILL EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
THIS MORNING AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  OUT
OF AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREAS OVER NC AND THE
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT THUS FAR...LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A
REGION OF MID-LEVEL FGEN OVER SC WILL SPREAD IN THROUGH MIDDAY. AN
IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AS THIS RAIN SPREADS NORTH THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST LIKELY
TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER WARMING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BY 18Z.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EXPANSION OF PRECIP.  THERE MAY BE BIT OF
A LULL IN RAIN AFTER 18Z...BEFORE A BETTER SURGE OF 295-300K
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND 21Z. REGIONAL OBS
SHOW THE SFC AND 850MB WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN AL/GA...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT DURING THE DAY...WITH
THE SMALL SEVERE THREAT TO EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING. -BLS

TONIGHT... THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70
KTS. AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 231428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM GENERALLY A MID CLOUD DECK BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY S/SW WINDS
WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 231428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM GENERALLY A MID CLOUD DECK BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY S/SW WINDS
WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 231428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM GENERALLY A MID CLOUD DECK BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY S/SW WINDS
WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 231428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM SUN...LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OTHER SECTIONS. STEADY
RAIN HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. MODELS SHOWING HIGH DEWPOINTS MAKING A PUSH NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K
FEET BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BY 21Z. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT
OCCURING BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
DOESNT APPEAR TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM GENERALLY A MID CLOUD DECK BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY S/SW WINDS
WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 927 AM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MRONING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP
WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC









000
FXUS62 KRAH 231211
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
711 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231211
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
711 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231211
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
711 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231211
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
711 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOWER THIS
MORNING... GENERALLY REMAINING VFR THROUGH MID MORNING... OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KGSO/KINT. EXPECT THE RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON... WITH SUB-VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50-55 KTS AT AROUND 2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HAVE LIMITED WS TO KGSO/KINT/KRDU AS ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
END AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED (10-15
KTS... WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 17-20 KTS).

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN
TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND
MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD




000
FXUS62 KILM 231152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND...RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...S/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTN. MODELS INDICATE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THIS UPPER S/W TROF AS IT LIFTS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHAT WELL DISPLACED FROM THE SFC LOW THAT
IS MOVING NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST. WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK
WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MON HOURS.
STRATIFORM RAINS IE. EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
SOURCE AREAS ARE UTILIZED. DECENT WIND DIRECTION VEERING PROFILE
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH WIND
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT AT THE SFC...UP TO 60 KT AT 925 MB.
WITH WIND SHEAR LIKE THIS...ANY CONVECTION THAT TAPS INTO THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO DUE TO FAVORABLE HELICITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...THE AVBL INSTABILITY
IE. CAPE...WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA.

AN ABNORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL BE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE...
WITH TODAYS HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR
SO ENSUING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET
SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN
INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT
TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY
TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A SLOW DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SLOWLY INCREASES. FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...POORLY DEPICTED BY THE HRRR BY
THE WAY. A SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE WITH MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. MODERATE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION
INDUCED CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF CEILINGS. MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY
WILL BE STRATIFORM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

THIS EVENING...AN UPPER VORT MAX WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG HELICITY BUT LITTLE TO NO CAPE WILL HARD TO RECONCILE.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PUSH
TO THE COAST BY 05-06Z. BEHIND THE VORT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO SHUT
OFF WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING ONSHORE E TO SE
WINDS DURING TODAY...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS
AS IT LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...
FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IF
WATER TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S...A
GALE WARNING WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT UPPER S/W TROF
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
AS ONSHORE WINDS MAKE SURE OF THAT. SIG. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THERE-AFTER IN SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
IN THE 5.0 TO 6.5 SECONDS RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY VIA
A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FEET. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD SETTLING NICELY INTO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY WITH 3-7 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
VALUES DROP TO 2-4 FEET THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL







000
FXUS62 KILM 231152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND...RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...S/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTN. MODELS INDICATE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THIS UPPER S/W TROF AS IT LIFTS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE SFC WARM FRONT SOMEWHAT WELL DISPLACED FROM THE SFC LOW THAT
IS MOVING NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST. WHATS LEFT OF A WEAK
WEDGE ACROSS THE INLAND CWA THIS MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THIS AFTN...WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MON HOURS.
STRATIFORM RAINS IE. EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
SOURCE AREAS ARE UTILIZED. DECENT WIND DIRECTION VEERING PROFILE
FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH WIND
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT AT THE SFC...UP TO 60 KT AT 925 MB.
WITH WIND SHEAR LIKE THIS...ANY CONVECTION THAT TAPS INTO THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO DUE TO FAVORABLE HELICITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERALL...THE AVBL INSTABILITY
IE. CAPE...WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA.

AN ABNORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL BE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE...
WITH TODAYS HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHTS LOWS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR
SO ENSUING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET
SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN
INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT
TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY
TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A SLOW DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SLOWLY INCREASES. FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...POORLY DEPICTED BY THE HRRR BY
THE WAY. A SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD WAVE WITH MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. MODERATE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION
INDUCED CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF CEILINGS. MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY
WILL BE STRATIFORM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

THIS EVENING...AN UPPER VORT MAX WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG HELICITY BUT LITTLE TO NO CAPE WILL HARD TO RECONCILE.
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PUSH
TO THE COAST BY 05-06Z. BEHIND THE VORT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO SHUT
OFF WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS COMMENCING LATER THIS MORNING
AND LASTING INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASING ONSHORE E TO SE
WINDS DURING TODAY...WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DEEPENS
AS IT LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MON DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...
FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. IF
WATER TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S...A
GALE WARNING WOULD PROBABLY HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT UPPER S/W TROF
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
AS ONSHORE WINDS MAKE SURE OF THAT. SIG. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A
VERY SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THERE-AFTER IN SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
IN THE 5.0 TO 6.5 SECONDS RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY VIA
A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FEET. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AND TURN TO THE WEST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD SETTLING NICELY INTO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. ELEMENTS WILL
REMAIN TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY WITH 3-7 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.
VALUES DROP TO 2-4 FEET THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SHIELD OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN HAS ARRIVED IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BEGIN RAINFALL
EARLIER...ALTHOUGH HEAVIER RAIN IS NOT LIKELY TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THE 3KM HRRR STILL INDICATES THAT THE STEADIER
AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. AS WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER TO HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON. POPS
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOWER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF AS DEWPOINT RECOVERY WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN NOW SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM GENERALLY A MID CLOUD DECK BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY S/SW WINDS
WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT SE/S WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 1 TO
3 FEET. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS STRONG WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH. A GALE WARNING WAS
POSTED EARLIER FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY
TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 FEET PER
LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...RSB/CTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SHIELD OF MOSTLY L