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000
FXUS62 KRAH 220240
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...

LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING CINH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWED CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO
DIE OFF ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS OCCURRED EVEN
THOUGH DEW POINTS HAD COME UP INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 (PW`S IN
EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES ALSO NOTED) AT GSO AND MHX. THERE COULD STILL
BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
TO CREATE LIFT... YET NOTHING ORGANIZED IS EXPECTED.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING PARTY CLOUDY. VERY OPPRESSIVE WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
06Z AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THAT TIME.
SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...ESP WHERE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURS
LATE THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT THE RDU/RWI
TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SAT...
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH/NE
SAT EVE/NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUN NIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN KNOWN AS AN `OMEGA BLOCK` WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...
AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A
PERSISTENT EAST/ENE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220240
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM WEDNESDAY...

LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING CINH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWED CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO
DIE OFF ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS OCCURRED EVEN
THOUGH DEW POINTS HAD COME UP INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 (PW`S IN
EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES ALSO NOTED) AT GSO AND MHX. THERE COULD STILL
BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
TO CREATE LIFT... YET NOTHING ORGANIZED IS EXPECTED.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING PARTY CLOUDY. VERY OPPRESSIVE WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
06Z AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THAT TIME.
SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...ESP WHERE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURS
LATE THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT THE RDU/RWI
TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SAT...
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH/NE
SAT EVE/NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUN NIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN KNOWN AS AN `OMEGA BLOCK` WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...
AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A
PERSISTENT EAST/ENE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 220225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL
SEND ANOTHER UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL
SEND ANOTHER UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL
SEND ANOTHER UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL
SEND ANOTHER UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC







  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 220202
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SURGED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...BUT A DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE 950-800 MB LAYER AND INCREASING DISTANCE FROM
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MEANS THESE STORMS ARE DRYING UP. IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE REACHES SE NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AS SHOWN ON THE 23Z
HRRR RUN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS DIED AWAY LEAVING A MERGED
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN TO DILLON...MARION...AND INTO WESTERN GEORGETOWN
COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTING LIFT IS INSUFFICIENT TO PUSH PARCELS TO THEIR
LCL...LET ALONE THEIR LFC! DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ORLEANS WHILE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HELPS AMPLIFY A TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ONE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A
FEW HOURS AGO...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA IS HELPING INDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS CONFIRM SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THIS NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...5-8 AM EDT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...HOWEVER RATHER DRY AIR
LURKING WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MUCH
CONVECTION TO SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH 73-76 FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 500-1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARGUING FOR ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
OVER VIRGINIA DIVING DOWN WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH
VCSH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KLBT/KILM EARLY FRI MORNING...THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT...DESPITE THE LIGHT/CALM
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FRI. STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL HELPED
TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
FRI WITH WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS EARLY...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 10 KTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMS FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS IS QUITE WEAK THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
IS WELL OFFSHORE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT HAS DECAYED TO A SIMPLE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MERGED WITH TODAY`S
SEABREEZE AND EARLIER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD VEER A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RATHER LOW...HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT THE
CAPE FEAR AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 220202
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SURGED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...BUT A DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE 950-800 MB LAYER AND INCREASING DISTANCE FROM
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MEANS THESE STORMS ARE DRYING UP. IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE REACHES SE NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AS SHOWN ON THE 23Z
HRRR RUN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS DIED AWAY LEAVING A MERGED
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN TO DILLON...MARION...AND INTO WESTERN GEORGETOWN
COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTING LIFT IS INSUFFICIENT TO PUSH PARCELS TO THEIR
LCL...LET ALONE THEIR LFC! DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ORLEANS WHILE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HELPS AMPLIFY A TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ONE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A
FEW HOURS AGO...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA IS HELPING INDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS CONFIRM SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THIS NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...5-8 AM EDT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...HOWEVER RATHER DRY AIR
LURKING WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MUCH
CONVECTION TO SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH 73-76 FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 500-1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARGUING FOR ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
OVER VIRGINIA DIVING DOWN WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH
VCSH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KLBT/KILM EARLY FRI MORNING...THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT...DESPITE THE LIGHT/CALM
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FRI. STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL HELPED
TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
FRI WITH WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS EARLY...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 10 KTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMS FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS IS QUITE WEAK THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
IS WELL OFFSHORE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT HAS DECAYED TO A SIMPLE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MERGED WITH TODAY`S
SEABREEZE AND EARLIER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD VEER A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RATHER LOW...HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT THE
CAPE FEAR AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 220202
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SURGED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...BUT A DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE 950-800 MB LAYER AND INCREASING DISTANCE FROM
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MEANS THESE STORMS ARE DRYING UP. IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE REACHES SE NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AS SHOWN ON THE 23Z
HRRR RUN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS DIED AWAY LEAVING A MERGED
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN TO DILLON...MARION...AND INTO WESTERN GEORGETOWN
COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTING LIFT IS INSUFFICIENT TO PUSH PARCELS TO THEIR
LCL...LET ALONE THEIR LFC! DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ORLEANS WHILE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HELPS AMPLIFY A TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ONE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A
FEW HOURS AGO...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA IS HELPING INDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS CONFIRM SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THIS NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...5-8 AM EDT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...HOWEVER RATHER DRY AIR
LURKING WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MUCH
CONVECTION TO SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH 73-76 FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 500-1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARGUING FOR ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
OVER VIRGINIA DIVING DOWN WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH
VCSH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KLBT/KILM EARLY FRI MORNING...THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT...DESPITE THE LIGHT/CALM
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FRI. STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL HELPED
TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
FRI WITH WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS EARLY...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 10 KTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMS FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS IS QUITE WEAK THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
IS WELL OFFSHORE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT HAS DECAYED TO A SIMPLE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MERGED WITH TODAY`S
SEABREEZE AND EARLIER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD VEER A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RATHER LOW...HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT THE
CAPE FEAR AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 220202
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SURGED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...BUT A DRIER
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE 950-800 MB LAYER AND INCREASING DISTANCE FROM
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MEANS THESE STORMS ARE DRYING UP. IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE REACHES SE NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AS SHOWN ON THE 23Z
HRRR RUN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS DIED AWAY LEAVING A MERGED
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN TO DILLON...MARION...AND INTO WESTERN GEORGETOWN
COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTING LIFT IS INSUFFICIENT TO PUSH PARCELS TO THEIR
LCL...LET ALONE THEIR LFC! DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ORLEANS WHILE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HELPS AMPLIFY A TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ONE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A
FEW HOURS AGO...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA IS HELPING INDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS CONFIRM SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THIS NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...5-8 AM EDT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...HOWEVER RATHER DRY AIR
LURKING WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MUCH
CONVECTION TO SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH 73-76 FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 500-1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARGUING FOR ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
OVER VIRGINIA DIVING DOWN WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH
VCSH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KLBT/KILM EARLY FRI MORNING...THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT...DESPITE THE LIGHT/CALM
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FRI. STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL HELPED
TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
FRI WITH WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS EARLY...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 10 KTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMS FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS IS QUITE WEAK THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
IS WELL OFFSHORE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT HAS DECAYED TO A SIMPLE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MERGED WITH TODAY`S
SEABREEZE AND EARLIER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD VEER A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RATHER LOW...HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT THE
CAPE FEAR AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KRAH 220155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE WEST HAVE SEEN
MORE MIXING THAN IN THE EAST WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT. MLCAPE RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG TO AS MUCH AS 2000
J/KG. THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.  TO
THE NORTHWEST...A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.  THE MEAN FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT TRIGGERS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE 25-30KT ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING THERE...THEY WILL
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVER

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WIL
SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH A CHANCE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER VIRGINIA EVOLVES.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
06Z AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THAT TIME.
SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...ESP WHERE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURS
LATE THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT THE RDU/RWI
TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SAT...
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH/NE
SAT EVE/NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUN NIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN KNOWN AS AN `OMEGA BLOCK` WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...
AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A
PERSISTENT EAST/ENE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE WEST HAVE SEEN
MORE MIXING THAN IN THE EAST WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT. MLCAPE RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG TO AS MUCH AS 2000
J/KG. THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.  TO
THE NORTHWEST...A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.  THE MEAN FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT TRIGGERS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE 25-30KT ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING THERE...THEY WILL
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVER

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WIL
SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH A CHANCE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER VIRGINIA EVOLVES.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
06Z AS THEY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THAT TIME.
SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...ESP WHERE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURS
LATE THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT THE RDU/RWI
TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SAT...
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH/NE
SAT EVE/NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUN NIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN KNOWN AS AN `OMEGA BLOCK` WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...
AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A
PERSISTENT EAST/ENE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 220133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA SOONER THAN
EXPECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING TO POPS. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA SOONER THAN
EXPECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING TO POPS. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC







000
FXUS62 KILM 212327
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS DIED AWAY
LEAVING A MERGED OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON
RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN TO DILLON...MARION...AND INTO
WESTERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTING LIFT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
PUSH PARCELS TO THEIR LCL...LET ALONE THEIR LFC! DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ORLEANS WHILE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HELPS AMPLIFY A TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ONE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A
FEW HOURS AGO...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA IS HELPING INDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS CONFIRM SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THIS NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...5-8 AM EDT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...HOWEVER RATHER DRY AIR
LURKING WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MUCH
CONVECTION TO SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH 73-76 FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 500-1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARGUING FOR ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
OVER VIRGINIA DIVING DOWN WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH
VCSH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KLBT/KILM EARLY FRI MORNING...THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT...DESPITE THE LIGHT/CALM
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FRI. STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL HELPED
TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
FRI WITH WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS EARLY...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 10 KTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMS FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
QUITE WEAK THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT
HAS DECAYED TO A SIMPLE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY
HAS MERGED WITH TODAY`S SEABREEZE AND EARLIER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD VEER A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS RATHER LOW...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT THE CAPE FEAR AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5
AM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 212327
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST HAS DIED AWAY
LEAVING A MERGED OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON
RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN TO DILLON...MARION...AND INTO
WESTERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTING LIFT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
PUSH PARCELS TO THEIR LCL...LET ALONE THEIR LFC! DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ORLEANS WHILE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HELPS AMPLIFY A TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ONE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST A
FEW HOURS AGO...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA IS HELPING INDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE.
MODELS CONFIRM SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING THIS NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...5-8 AM EDT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY
BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...HOWEVER RATHER DRY AIR
LURKING WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MUCH
CONVECTION TO SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTHEASTWARD.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REACH 73-76 FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 500-1000 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARGUING FOR ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
OVER VIRGINIA DIVING DOWN WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THOUGH
VCSH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KLBT/KILM EARLY FRI MORNING...THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT...DESPITE THE LIGHT/CALM
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FRI. STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL HELPED
TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
FRI WITH WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS EARLY...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 10 KTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMS FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT VFR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
QUITE WEAK THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT
HAS DECAYED TO A SIMPLE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY
HAS MERGED WITH TODAY`S SEABREEZE AND EARLIER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD VEER A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS RATHER LOW...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT THE CAPE FEAR AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5
AM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KMHX 212258
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
658 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH ALL THE FORECAST
AREA RAIN-FREE. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SW NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20/30 POPS OVER NE HALF OF AREA.
MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING MAINLY AT PGV. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI
MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 212258
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
658 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH ALL THE FORECAST
AREA RAIN-FREE. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SW NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20/30 POPS OVER NE HALF OF AREA.
MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING MAINLY AT PGV. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI
MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 212035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
SEA BREEZE ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC POP FROM
8 PM TO 2 AM WITH MODELS INDICATING NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHRT WV
ACTIVITY MOVING IN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST
20/30 POPS WITH HIGHEST OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 212035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
SEA BREEZE ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC POP FROM
8 PM TO 2 AM WITH MODELS INDICATING NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHRT WV
ACTIVITY MOVING IN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST
20/30 POPS WITH HIGHEST OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC






000
FXUS62 KILM 211939
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COASTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO W-NW FLOW OFF
THE SURFACE IN A SULTRY AND FUELED AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED ERUPTION
OF TORRENTIAL RAIN CORES...PRIMARILY CONFINED ALONG THE COASTAL
INTERIOR AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT
MARCHES INLAND WILL SPARK MORE UPDRAFTS AS THE MARINE INTRUSION
DEEPENS...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE NEW GROWTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT. NO OTHER TRIGGERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HOT AND HUMID BUT SO FAR STILL UNTAPPED OVER
THE DEEP INTERIOR...WHERE IT COULD REMAIN SUCH.

ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY INTO EARLY EVENING
SINCE SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE E ZONES
AS WILL THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES WILL CARRY
A POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE TSTMS...AS WAS NOTED IN HOLDEN BEACH
EARLIER WHERE DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

DIURNAL COOLING INTO MID-EVENING OR SOONER SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW
AND TAKES ITS TOLL ON CONVECTIVE VIGOR...PARTICULARLY WITH VERY
WARM H5 TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE BUILDUP OF LOW-LEVEL HEAT
HOWEVER AND THE RESULTANT BUOYANCY IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD SUSTAIN
CELLS THROUGH EVENING. STEERING WINDS WILL GUIDE STORMS SLOWLY TO
THE ESE-SSE.

MINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND
70-74 INLAND WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS AFTN
MAY ALLOW DECENT FALLS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UNDERWAY NEAR THE N COAST. WILL
ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
PROBABLE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE NAM HAS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. FRIDAY...A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE THAT PREVIOUS DAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT INLAND SHOULD
MAINTAIN A LIGHT S-SW WIND OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. WINDS
MAY DROP SEVERAL KNOTS AND BACK TO SW OVERNIGHT AS THE C-BRZ
CONTRIBUTION FADES OUT. SEAS 2-3 FEET IN A MIX SSW WAVES 1-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. MARINERS
SHOULD SEEK OUT A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS WILL
PLAGUE THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MJC/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 211939
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COASTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO W-NW FLOW OFF
THE SURFACE IN A SULTRY AND FUELED AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED ERUPTION
OF TORRENTIAL RAIN CORES...PRIMARILY CONFINED ALONG THE COASTAL
INTERIOR AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT
MARCHES INLAND WILL SPARK MORE UPDRAFTS AS THE MARINE INTRUSION
DEEPENS...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE NEW GROWTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT. NO OTHER TRIGGERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HOT AND HUMID BUT SO FAR STILL UNTAPPED OVER
THE DEEP INTERIOR...WHERE IT COULD REMAIN SUCH.

ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY INTO EARLY EVENING
SINCE SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE E ZONES
AS WILL THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES WILL CARRY
A POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE TSTMS...AS WAS NOTED IN HOLDEN BEACH
EARLIER WHERE DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

DIURNAL COOLING INTO MID-EVENING OR SOONER SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW
AND TAKES ITS TOLL ON CONVECTIVE VIGOR...PARTICULARLY WITH VERY
WARM H5 TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE BUILDUP OF LOW-LEVEL HEAT
HOWEVER AND THE RESULTANT BUOYANCY IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD SUSTAIN
CELLS THROUGH EVENING. STEERING WINDS WILL GUIDE STORMS SLOWLY TO
THE ESE-SSE.

MINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND
70-74 INLAND WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS AFTN
MAY ALLOW DECENT FALLS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE...
WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP
THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY
MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN
ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON
SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND
70.

AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE
GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST
NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS
MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UNDERWAY NEAR THE N COAST. WILL
ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
PROBABLE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE NAM HAS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. FRIDAY...A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE THAT PREVIOUS DAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT INLAND SHOULD
MAINTAIN A LIGHT S-SW WIND OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. WINDS
MAY DROP SEVERAL KNOTS AND BACK TO SW OVERNIGHT AS THE C-BRZ
CONTRIBUTION FADES OUT. SEAS 2-3 FEET IN A MIX SSW WAVES 1-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. MARINERS
SHOULD SEEK OUT A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS WILL
PLAGUE THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND THEN MORE EASTERLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE AS A MODEST
SURGE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT...UP
TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. THESE 4 FT SEAS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A NORTHEAST SURGE IN WINDS WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW UP TO 15 KTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BY
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS NORTH HELPING
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SWELLS. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THEN FURTHER INCREASE POSSIBLY UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MJC/DL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211913
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE WEST HAVE SEEN
MORE MIXING THAN IN THE EAST WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT.  MLCAPE RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG TO AS MUCH AS 2000
J/KG.   THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.  TO
THE NORTHWEST...A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.  THE MEAN FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT TRIGGERS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE 25-30KT ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING THERE...THEY WILL
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVER

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WIL
SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH A CHANCE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER VIRGINIA EVOLVES.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211913
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE WEST HAVE SEEN
MORE MIXING THAN IN THE EAST WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT.  MLCAPE RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG TO AS MUCH AS 2000
J/KG.   THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.  TO
THE NORTHWEST...A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.  THE MEAN FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT TRIGGERS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE 25-30KT ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING THERE...THEY WILL
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVER

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WIL
SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH A CHANCE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER VIRGINIA EVOLVES.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211913
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE WEST HAVE SEEN
MORE MIXING THAN IN THE EAST WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT.  MLCAPE RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG TO AS MUCH AS 2000
J/KG.   THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.  TO
THE NORTHWEST...A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.  THE MEAN FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT TRIGGERS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE 25-30KT ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING THERE...THEY WILL
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVER

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WIL
SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH A CHANCE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER VIRGINIA EVOLVES.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211913
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE WEST HAVE SEEN
MORE MIXING THAN IN THE EAST WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT.  MLCAPE RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG TO AS MUCH AS 2000
J/KG.   THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.  TO
THE NORTHWEST...A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.  THE MEAN FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT TRIGGERS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE 25-30KT ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING THERE...THEY WILL
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVER

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WIL
SLOWLY DIMINISH...THOUGH A CHANCE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER VIRGINIA EVOLVES.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 211859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KRAH 211838
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...THOUGH TODAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 90 MOST AREAS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.  THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT SOME STORMS
CONGEALING INTO A SMALL LINE...LIKELY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. WILL BE WATCHING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER
EASTERN KY/TN TO SEE IF ANYTHING TRIGGERS....BUT FOR NOW POPS WILL
BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.  HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100-103 ROUGHLY EAST
OF US 1.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211838
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...THOUGH TODAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 90 MOST AREAS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.  THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT SOME STORMS
CONGEALING INTO A SMALL LINE...LIKELY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. WILL BE WATCHING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER
EASTERN KY/TN TO SEE IF ANYTHING TRIGGERS....BUT FOR NOW POPS WILL
BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.  HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100-103 ROUGHLY EAST
OF US 1.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE EAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
TO CROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN DISTURBANCES IN QUESTION ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
SUCH A FEATURE IS STILL TOUGH THIS FAR OUT...SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LOW.  DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY
A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE MID
60S.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO MLCAPE
SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN THE WEST TO OVER 1500
J/KG IN THE EAST.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER VA...AND SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY STAY DRY.

H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20C AGAIN FRIDAY AND WITH DEEP
MIXING RESULTS IN MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.  DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE EAST THAN TODAY...THOUGH ONLY
SLIGHTLY...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD AGAIN HOLD AROUND 100F IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THERE IS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...NECESSITATING POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 211835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 211800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...THOUGH TODAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 90 MOST AREAS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.  THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT SOME STORMS
CONGEALING INTO A SMALL LINE...LIKELY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. WILL BE WATCHING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER
EASTERN KY/TN TO SEE IF ANYTHING TRIGGERS....BUT FOR NOW POPS WILL
BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.  HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100-103 ROUGHLY EAST
OF US 1.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...THOUGH TODAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 90 MOST AREAS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.  THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT SOME STORMS
CONGEALING INTO A SMALL LINE...LIKELY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. WILL BE WATCHING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER
EASTERN KY/TN TO SEE IF ANYTHING TRIGGERS....BUT FOR NOW POPS WILL
BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.  HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100-103 ROUGHLY EAST
OF US 1.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.  A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  TO THE EAST...WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST...SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...MOSTLY FROM KFAY TO KRWI AND EAST.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
VA TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS.  DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...THOUGH TODAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 90 MOST AREAS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.  THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT SOME STORMS
CONGEALING INTO A SMALL LINE...LIKELY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. WILL BE WATCHING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER
EASTERN KY/TN TO SEE IF ANYTHING TRIGGERS....BUT FOR NOW POPS WILL
BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.  HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100-103 ROUGHLY EAST
OF US 1.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...THOUGH TODAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 90 MOST AREAS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.  THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT SOME STORMS
CONGEALING INTO A SMALL LINE...LIKELY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. WILL BE WATCHING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER
EASTERN KY/TN TO SEE IF ANYTHING TRIGGERS....BUT FOR NOW POPS WILL
BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.  HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100-103 ROUGHLY EAST
OF US 1.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
SURGE SOUTH AT THE MID LEVELS...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO FURTHER AID IN DAMPENING CONVECTION AS WELL...SO PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 211731
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
COOLING THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...STAGGERING HUMIDITY/TD VALUES SCRAPING
THE COAST WITH OPPRESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ANTICIPATED.
HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR OUR SC INTERIOR AS T/TD PAIRINGS BRING
HEAT INDICES/MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 DEGREES IN
AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONVECTION TODAY PARTIALLY SUPPRESSED ALOFT BY A SUBSIDING SLAB
OF DRIER AIR AS THICKNESSES MOUNT BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SW. INTENSE LOW- LEVEL HEATING
WILL SHARPEN OUR LOWER TROP LAPSE RATES BUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES AT
500 MB WILL SUPPRESS ANY EVOLVING UPDRAFTS GENERALLY OF MAGNITUDE
TO CAP SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...PULSE SEVERE IN
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES
STRENGTHENED IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PWAT VALUES
REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH LOTS OF BOTTOM-LOADED
MOISTURE SO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES POTENTIALLY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BUT CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY
BI-SECTING NE SC/SE NC FROM SW TO NE PRESENTLY...AND THIS FEATURE
AS IT BECOME INTERACTIVE WITH THE ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE FRONT COULD
SPARK OUR CONVECTION LATER TODAY NEAR THE COAST OR COASTAL INTERIOR
TRACKING TO THE E GENERALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UNDERWAY NEAR THE N COAST. WILL
ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
PROBABLE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE NAM HAS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. FRIDAY...A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE THAT PREVIOUS DAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
MARINE...DOUGH/BACON
AVIATION...DAVE/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 211731
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
COOLING THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...STAGGERING HUMIDITY/TD VALUES SCRAPING
THE COAST WITH OPPRESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ANTICIPATED.
HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR OUR SC INTERIOR AS T/TD PAIRINGS BRING
HEAT INDICES/MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 DEGREES IN
AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONVECTION TODAY PARTIALLY SUPPRESSED ALOFT BY A SUBSIDING SLAB
OF DRIER AIR AS THICKNESSES MOUNT BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SW. INTENSE LOW- LEVEL HEATING
WILL SHARPEN OUR LOWER TROP LAPSE RATES BUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES AT
500 MB WILL SUPPRESS ANY EVOLVING UPDRAFTS GENERALLY OF MAGNITUDE
TO CAP SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...PULSE SEVERE IN
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES
STRENGTHENED IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PWAT VALUES
REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH LOTS OF BOTTOM-LOADED
MOISTURE SO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES POTENTIALLY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BUT CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY
BI-SECTING NE SC/SE NC FROM SW TO NE PRESENTLY...AND THIS FEATURE
AS IT BECOME INTERACTIVE WITH THE ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE FRONT COULD
SPARK OUR CONVECTION LATER TODAY NEAR THE COAST OR COASTAL INTERIOR
TRACKING TO THE E GENERALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UNDERWAY NEAR THE N COAST. WILL
ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
PROBABLE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE NAM HAS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. FRIDAY...A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE THAT PREVIOUS DAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
MARINE...DOUGH/BACON
AVIATION...DAVE/8






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SCT WORDING BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO NRN PAMLICO SOUND AND STLT/RADAR INDICATIONS OF ACTIVITY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CARTERET COUNTY. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL ZONE MID TO
LATE AFTN AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS 20/30 POPS THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED
PULSE SVR TSTM PSBL AS MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES WINDEX VALUES TO
64 KT.

NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND NAM MOS GDNC...AND SRN SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
MEET MINIMAL HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA DURING AFTN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR 1 PM UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR SCT TSTM WORDING REST OF TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SCT WORDING BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO NRN PAMLICO SOUND AND STLT/RADAR INDICATIONS OF ACTIVITY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CARTERET COUNTY. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL ZONE MID TO
LATE AFTN AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS 20/30 POPS THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED
PULSE SVR TSTM PSBL AS MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES WINDEX VALUES TO
64 KT.

NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND NAM MOS GDNC...AND SRN SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
MEET MINIMAL HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA DURING AFTN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR 1 PM UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR SCT TSTM WORDING REST OF TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SCT WORDING BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO NRN PAMLICO SOUND AND STLT/RADAR INDICATIONS OF ACTIVITY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CARTERET COUNTY. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL ZONE MID TO
LATE AFTN AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS 20/30 POPS THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED
PULSE SVR TSTM PSBL AS MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES WINDEX VALUES TO
64 KT.

NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND NAM MOS GDNC...AND SRN SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
MEET MINIMAL HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA DURING AFTN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR 1 PM UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR SCT TSTM WORDING REST OF TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SCT WORDING BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO NRN PAMLICO SOUND AND STLT/RADAR INDICATIONS OF ACTIVITY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CARTERET COUNTY. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL ZONE MID TO
LATE AFTN AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS 20/30 POPS THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED
PULSE SVR TSTM PSBL AS MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES WINDEX VALUES TO
64 KT.

NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND NAM MOS GDNC...AND SRN SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
MEET MINIMAL HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA DURING AFTN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR 1 PM UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR SCT TSTM WORDING REST OF TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 211447
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...THOUGH TODAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...AND AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 90 MOST AREAS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.  THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED AT SOME STORMS
CONGEALING INTO A SMALL LINE...LIKELY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. WILL BE WATCHING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER
EASTERN KY/TN TO SEE IF ANYTHING TRIGGERS....BUT FOR NOW POPS WILL
BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.  HEAT INDICES WILL BE 100-103 ROUGHLY EAST
OF US 1.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AND IN FACT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
FORECAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MOSTLY MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 211349
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...STAGGERING HUMIDITY/TD VALUES SCRAPING THE
COAST WITH OPPRESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY. HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR OUR SC INTERIOR AS T/TD PAIRINGS
BRING HEAT INDICES/MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105-108
DEGREES IN AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER PATCHY BUT EXCEPTIONALLY DENSE
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...LOCAL DEWPOINTS ALONG CAPE FEAR HAVE
RANGED FROM 79-81 WITH ILM REPORTING A TD OF 81 EARLIER. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO DIURNAL WARMING BUT WILL NEED TO
RE-EXAMINE HEAT ADVISORY IF THE NORTH COAST AND CAPE FEAR INTERIOR
DOES NOT SHAKE OFF THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY.

CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE HELD BACK ALOFT BY A SUBSIDING SLAB OF
DRIER AIR AS THICKNESSES MOUNT BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SW. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
SHARPEN OUR LOWER TROP LAPSE RATES BUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES AT 500 MB
WILL SUPPRESS ANY EVOLVING UPDRAFTS GENERALLY OF MAGNITUDE TO CAP
SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...PULSE SEVERE IN COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES STRENGTHENED
IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH LOTS OF BOTTOM-LOADED MOISTURE
SO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES POTENTIALLY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BUT CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY
BI-SECTING NE SC/SE NC FROM SW TO NE PRESENTLY...AND THIS FEATURE
AS IT BECOME INTERACTIVE WITH THE ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE FRONT COULD
SPARK OUR CONVECTION LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
MARINE...DOUGH/BACON
AVIATION...DAVE









000
FXUS62 KILM 211349
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...STAGGERING HUMIDITY/TD VALUES SCRAPING THE
COAST WITH OPPRESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY. HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR OUR SC INTERIOR AS T/TD PAIRINGS
BRING HEAT INDICES/MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105-108
DEGREES IN AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER PATCHY BUT EXCEPTIONALLY DENSE
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...LOCAL DEWPOINTS ALONG CAPE FEAR HAVE
RANGED FROM 79-81 WITH ILM REPORTING A TD OF 81 EARLIER. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO DIURNAL WARMING BUT WILL NEED TO
RE-EXAMINE HEAT ADVISORY IF THE NORTH COAST AND CAPE FEAR INTERIOR
DOES NOT SHAKE OFF THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY.

CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE HELD BACK ALOFT BY A SUBSIDING SLAB OF
DRIER AIR AS THICKNESSES MOUNT BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SW. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
SHARPEN OUR LOWER TROP LAPSE RATES BUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES AT 500 MB
WILL SUPPRESS ANY EVOLVING UPDRAFTS GENERALLY OF MAGNITUDE TO CAP
SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...PULSE SEVERE IN COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES STRENGTHENED
IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH LOTS OF BOTTOM-LOADED MOISTURE
SO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES POTENTIALLY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BUT CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY
BI-SECTING NE SC/SE NC FROM SW TO NE PRESENTLY...AND THIS FEATURE
AS IT BECOME INTERACTIVE WITH THE ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE FRONT COULD
SPARK OUR CONVECTION LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
MARINE...DOUGH/BACON
AVIATION...DAVE










000
FXUS62 KILM 211347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...STAGGERING HUMIDITY/TD VALUES SCRAPING THE
COAST WITH OPPRESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY. HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR OUR SC INTERIOR AS T/TD PAIRINGS
BRING HEAT INDICES/MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105-108
DEGREES IN AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER PATCHY BUT EXCEPTIONALLY DENSE
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...LOCAL DEWPOINTS ALONG CAPE FEAR HAVE
RANGED FROM 79-81 WITH ILM REPORTING A TD OF 81 EARLIER. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO DIURNAL WARMING BUT WILL NEED TO
RE-EXAMINE HEAT ADVISORY IF THE NORTH COAST AND CAPE FEAR INTERIOR
DOES NOT SHAKE OFF THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY.

CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE HELD BACK ALOFT BY A SUBSIDING SLAB OF
DRIER AIR AS THICKNESSES MOUNT BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SW. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
SHARPEN OUR LOWER TROP LAPSE RATES BUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES AT 500 MB
WILL SUPPRESS ANY EVOLVING UPDRAFTS GENERALLY OF MAGNITUDE TO CAP
SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...PULSE SEVERE IN COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES STRENGTHENED
IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH LOTS OF BOTTOM-LOADED MOISTURE
SO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES POTENTIALLY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BUT CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY
BI-SECTING NE SC/SE NC FROM SW TO NE PRESENTLY...AND THIS FEATURE
AS IT BECOME INTERACTIVE WITH THE ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE FRONT COULD
SPARK OUR CONVECTIVE LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
MARINE...DOUGH/BACON
AVIATION...DAVE







000
FXUS62 KILM 211347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...STAGGERING HUMIDITY/TD VALUES SCRAPING THE
COAST WITH OPPRESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY. HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR OUR SC INTERIOR AS T/TD PAIRINGS
BRING HEAT INDICES/MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105-108
DEGREES IN AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER PATCHY BUT EXCEPTIONALLY DENSE
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...LOCAL DEWPOINTS ALONG CAPE FEAR HAVE
RANGED FROM 79-81 WITH ILM REPORTING A TD OF 81 EARLIER. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO DIURNAL WARMING BUT WILL NEED TO
RE-EXAMINE HEAT ADVISORY IF THE NORTH COAST AND CAPE FEAR INTERIOR
DOES NOT SHAKE OFF THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY.

CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE HELD BACK ALOFT BY A SUBSIDING SLAB OF
DRIER AIR AS THICKNESSES MOUNT BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SW. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL
SHARPEN OUR LOWER TROP LAPSE RATES BUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES AT 500 MB
WILL SUPPRESS ANY EVOLVING UPDRAFTS GENERALLY OF MAGNITUDE TO CAP
SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...PULSE SEVERE IN COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES STRENGTHENED
IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH LOTS OF BOTTOM-LOADED MOISTURE
SO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES POTENTIALLY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BUT CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY
BI-SECTING NE SC/SE NC FROM SW TO NE PRESENTLY...AND THIS FEATURE
AS IT BECOME INTERACTIVE WITH THE ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE FRONT COULD
SPARK OUR CONVECTIVE LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-
     039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
MARINE...DOUGH/BACON
AVIATION...DAVE






000
FXUS62 KILM 211156
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 755 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA
PAN HANDLE NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE IS
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 211156
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 755 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA
PAN HANDLE NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE IS
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KRAH 211115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION
...WHILE THE GREAT LAKES UPPER UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST US. IN RESPONSE...HEIGHTS
ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING ALLOWING
H8 TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 21C...A 3C DEGREE INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE
MTNS AND SEASONABLY DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 93 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE. THIS DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALSO HELP SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103F RANGE
FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EASTWARD. WHILE THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST 2-3 WEEKS OF AUGUST MAY MAKE THE GENERAL POPULACE A
LITTLE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE ABOVE HEAT INDICES...AND THUS WILL ADD
A HEADLINE IN THE HWO.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FORCING
LIMITED TO THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AND IN FACT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
FORECAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MOSTLY MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION
...WHILE THE GREAT LAKES UPPER UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST US. IN RESPONSE...HEIGHTS
ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING ALLOWING
H8 TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 21C...A 3C DEGREE INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE
MTNS AND SEASONABLY DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 93 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE. THIS DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALSO HELP SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103F RANGE
FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EASTWARD. WHILE THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST 2-3 WEEKS OF AUGUST MAY MAKE THE GENERAL POPULACE A
LITTLE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE ABOVE HEAT INDICES...AND THUS WILL ADD
A HEADLINE IN THE HWO.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FORCING
LIMITED TO THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AND IN FACT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
FORECAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MOSTLY MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 211103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY
THIS MORNING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH
WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30
PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE
COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY
THIS MORNING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH
WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30
PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE
COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KILM 211053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 211053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 211053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 211053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY
13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO
DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND
18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 211025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 211025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 211025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 211025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 210757
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
357 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 210757
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
357 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN SEMI-PERMANENT
DURING THIS NEAR TERM AND WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE THOUGH IS SOME
AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST
APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST.

THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC
CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108
HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE
THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO
PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY
ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE
SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW
NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR
SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL
WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 210723
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION
...WHILE THE GREAT LAKES UPPER UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST US. IN RESPONSE...HEIGHTS
ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING ALLOWING
H8 TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 21C...A 3C DEGREE INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE
MTNS AND SEASONABLY DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 93 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE. THIS DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALSO HELP SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103F RANGE
FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EASTWARD. WHILE THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST 2-3 WEEKS OF AUGUST MAY MAKE THE GENERAL POPULACE A
LITTLE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE ABOVE HEAT INDICES...AND THUS WILL ADD
A HEADLINE IN THE HWO.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FORCING
LIMITED TO THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AND IN FACT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
FORECAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MOSTLY MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA/NE NC IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...KRDU AND
KRWI STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
06 TO 08Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ALL TAF SITES TO
SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOG PRONE KRWI AND KRDU WHO SAW SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
EVENING COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.  ELSEWHERE
MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED....UNLESS MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN
SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210723
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION
...WHILE THE GREAT LAKES UPPER UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST US. IN RESPONSE...HEIGHTS
ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING ALLOWING
H8 TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 21C...A 3C DEGREE INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE
MTNS AND SEASONABLY DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 93 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE. THIS DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALSO HELP SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103F RANGE
FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EASTWARD. WHILE THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST 2-3 WEEKS OF AUGUST MAY MAKE THE GENERAL POPULACE A
LITTLE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE ABOVE HEAT INDICES...AND THUS WILL ADD
A HEADLINE IN THE HWO.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FORCING
LIMITED TO THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AND IN FACT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
FORECAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MOSTLY MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA/NE NC IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...KRDU AND
KRWI STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
06 TO 08Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ALL TAF SITES TO
SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOG PRONE KRWI AND KRDU WHO SAW SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
EVENING COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.  ELSEWHERE
MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED....UNLESS MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN
SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210723
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION
...WHILE THE GREAT LAKES UPPER UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST US. IN RESPONSE...HEIGHTS
ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING ALLOWING
H8 TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 21C...A 3C DEGREE INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE
MTNS AND SEASONABLY DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 93 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE. THIS DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALSO HELP SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103F RANGE
FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EASTWARD. WHILE THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST 2-3 WEEKS OF AUGUST MAY MAKE THE GENERAL POPULACE A
LITTLE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE ABOVE HEAT INDICES...AND THUS WILL ADD
A HEADLINE IN THE HWO.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FORCING
LIMITED TO THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AND IN FACT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
FORECAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MOSTLY MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA/NE NC IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...KRDU AND
KRWI STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
06 TO 08Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ALL TAF SITES TO
SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOG PRONE KRWI AND KRDU WHO SAW SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
EVENING COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.  ELSEWHERE
MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED....UNLESS MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN
SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210723
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION
...WHILE THE GREAT LAKES UPPER UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST US. IN RESPONSE...HEIGHTS
ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING ALLOWING
H8 TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 21C...A 3C DEGREE INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE
MTNS AND SEASONABLY DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 93 TO 98 DEGREE RANGE. THIS DEEP MIXING
SHOULD ALSO HELP SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103F RANGE
FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EASTWARD. WHILE THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST 2-3 WEEKS OF AUGUST MAY MAKE THE GENERAL POPULACE A
LITTLE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE ABOVE HEAT INDICES...AND THUS WILL ADD
A HEADLINE IN THE HWO.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FORCING
LIMITED TO THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITH HOW NWP GUIDANCE HANDLE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH...THE OVERRIDING
THEME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INCREASE/UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES/POPS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING DOWN
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ATTENDANT BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTO THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF OF THE BETTER FORCING AND LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH.

A TOUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE...A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND GIVEN THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AND IN FACT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE
FORECAST BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MOSTLY MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA/NE NC IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...KRDU AND
KRWI STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
06 TO 08Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ALL TAF SITES TO
SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOG PRONE KRWI AND KRDU WHO SAW SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
EVENING COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.  ELSEWHERE
MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED....UNLESS MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN
SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KILM 210707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL












000
FXUS62 KILM 210707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL












000
FXUS62 KILM 210707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL












000
FXUS62 KILM 210707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.


HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE
AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO
GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER  MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO
BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED
TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS
AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP
IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH
SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS
THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97,
96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING
LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY
SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES
WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH.
AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID
CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN
PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT.
THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN
PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS
TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE
VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN
UP.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER
SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 210700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LIFTING TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE CWA...DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO
OCRACOKE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON
AMT OF HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG
ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND/OR SHOWERS
DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND LIKELY
LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION...BEFORE PUSHING NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY WITH SE/SW WINDS
5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LIFTING TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE CWA...DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO
OCRACOKE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON
AMT OF HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG
ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND/OR SHOWERS
DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND LIKELY
LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION...BEFORE PUSHING NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY WITH SE/SW WINDS
5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KILM 210536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN
STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH SCT MID CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 210536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY
DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO
2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN
STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH SCT MID CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KRAH 210510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DIED OFF
OVER WAKE/JOHNSTON COUNTIES. TO THE WEST... STRONG CONVECTION IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FROM TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTH... A
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CHARLOTTESVILLE TO RICHMOND AREAS. HOWEVER... THE LATEST STABILITY
INDICES INDICATE A GRADUAL STABILIZING OF OUR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEVELOPING CINH SINCE SUNSET. THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE APPROACHING THE NC/VA BORDER JUST BEFORE 1200 AM. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE CONVECTION WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT
NEARLY 30 MPH INTO A BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LINGERING... BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER THROUGH 200 AM. OTHERWISE... PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. LOWS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA/NE NC IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...KRDU AND
KRWI STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
06 TO 08Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ALL TAF SITES TO
SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOG PRONE KRWI AND KRDU WHO SAW SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
EVENING COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.  ELSEWHERE
MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED....UNLESS MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN
SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DIED OFF
OVER WAKE/JOHNSTON COUNTIES. TO THE WEST... STRONG CONVECTION IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FROM TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTH... A
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CHARLOTTESVILLE TO RICHMOND AREAS. HOWEVER... THE LATEST STABILITY
INDICES INDICATE A GRADUAL STABILIZING OF OUR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEVELOPING CINH SINCE SUNSET. THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE APPROACHING THE NC/VA BORDER JUST BEFORE 1200 AM. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE CONVECTION WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT
NEARLY 30 MPH INTO A BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LINGERING... BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER THROUGH 200 AM. OTHERWISE... PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. LOWS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING AREA OF STORMS
SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA/NE NC IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...KRDU AND
KRWI STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
06 TO 08Z. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ALL TAF SITES TO
SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOG PRONE KRWI AND KRDU WHO SAW SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST
EVENING COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.  ELSEWHERE
MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED....UNLESS MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN
SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 210446
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NORTHERN NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MOVING SE...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE SC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IF ACTIVITY MANAGES TO HOLD
TOGETHER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST
NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE
WATERS...WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND S/SW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SEAS 2-3FT THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/HSA/SK/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210446
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NORTHERN NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MOVING SE...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE SC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IF ACTIVITY MANAGES TO HOLD
TOGETHER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST
NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE
WATERS...WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND S/SW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SEAS 2-3FT THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/HSA/SK/CQD







000
FXUS62 KILM 210230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WILL SOON DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS INCREASING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DIED OFF
OVER WAKE/JOHNSTON COUNTIES. TO THE WEST... STRONG CONVECTION IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FROM TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTH... A
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CHARLOTTESVILLE TO RICHMOND AREAS. HOWEVER... THE LATEST STABILITY
INDICES INDICATE A GRADUAL STABILIZING OF OUR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEVELOPING CINH SINCE SUNSET. THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE APPROACHING THE NC/VA BORDER JUST BEFORE 1200 AM. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE CONVECTION WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT
NEARLY 30 MPH INTO A BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LINGERING... BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER THROUGH 200 AM. OTHERWISE... PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. LOWS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE GENERALLY
DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A WEAKENING
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGSO/KINT VERY LATE THIS EVENING OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH VA MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
EVENING AND/OR AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH KRDU AND KRWI STANDING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NC WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT... AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY
STABILIZE THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND LIFR FOG WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT WE MAY STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IFR TO MVFR VISBYS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AT ALL SITES... WITH PERHAPS FOG PRONE KRWI AGAIN
DROPPING INTO THE LIFR RANGE. KRDU... HAD SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP FROM
THIS AFTERNOON... SO EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED.... UNLESS
MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...

EARLIER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE DIED OFF
OVER WAKE/JOHNSTON COUNTIES. TO THE WEST... STRONG CONVECTION IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FROM TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTH... A
CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CHARLOTTESVILLE TO RICHMOND AREAS. HOWEVER... THE LATEST STABILITY
INDICES INDICATE A GRADUAL STABILIZING OF OUR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEVELOPING CINH SINCE SUNSET. THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE APPROACHING THE NC/VA BORDER JUST BEFORE 1200 AM. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE CONVECTION WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT
NEARLY 30 MPH INTO A BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LINGERING... BUT WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER THROUGH 200 AM. OTHERWISE... PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. LOWS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE GENERALLY
DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A WEAKENING
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGSO/KINT VERY LATE THIS EVENING OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH VA MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
EVENING AND/OR AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH KRDU AND KRWI STANDING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NC WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT... AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY
STABILIZE THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND LIFR FOG WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT WE MAY STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IFR TO MVFR VISBYS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AT ALL SITES... WITH PERHAPS FOG PRONE KRWI AGAIN
DROPPING INTO THE LIFR RANGE. KRDU... HAD SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP FROM
THIS AFTERNOON... SO EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED.... UNLESS
MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
910 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE GENERALLY
DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A WEAKENING
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGSO/KINT VERY LATE THIS EVENING OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH VA MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
EVENING AND/OR AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH KRDU AND KRWI STANDING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NC WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT... AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY
STABILIZE THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND LIFR FOG WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT WE MAY STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IFR TO MVFR VISBYS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AT ALL SITES... WITH PERHAPS FOG PRONE KRWI AGAIN
DROPPING INTO THE LIFR RANGE. KRDU... HAD SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP FROM
THIS AFTERNOON... SO EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED.... UNLESS
MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
910 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE GENERALLY
DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... A WEAKENING
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... POSSIBLY AFFECTING KGSO/KINT VERY LATE THIS EVENING OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH VA MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
EVENING AND/OR AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH KRDU AND KRWI STANDING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NC WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT... AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY
STABILIZE THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND LIFR FOG WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT WE MAY STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME IFR TO MVFR VISBYS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AT ALL SITES... WITH PERHAPS FOG PRONE KRWI AGAIN
DROPPING INTO THE LIFR RANGE. KRDU... HAD SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP FROM
THIS AFTERNOON... SO EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE MVFR VISBYS WILL BE FAVORED.... UNLESS
MORE PRECIP AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT THE LATEST... WITH THE PROSPECTS OF VFR CONDITIONS BY 13-15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 210104
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
904 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED. JUST SENT UPDATED
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS.

PREV DISC...MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
THE NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND COND PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NAM AND GFS BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RTES BUT THAT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT
CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/CQD






000
FXUS62 KILM 202343
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WILL SOON DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS INCREASING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR






000
FXUS62 KILM 202343
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WILL SOON DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AND FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS INCREASING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR







000
FXUS62 KMHX 202306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AT
PRESENT BUT WILL LIKEY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY
THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A SHORT
WHILE AGO HAS NOW DISSIPATED. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NAM AND GFS BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RTES BUT THAT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT
CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 202306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AT
PRESENT BUT WILL LIKEY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY
THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A SHORT
WHILE AGO HAS NOW DISSIPATED. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NAM AND GFS BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RTES BUT THAT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT
CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/CQD






000
FXUS62 KILM 202233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 202233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS FADED AREA-WIDE AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS TO RE-INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEED OF STORM AND SHOWER
DISSIPATION...MAY FURTHER REDUCE CHANCES TO NEAR NIL IN AN HOUR
OR SO. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN
PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS
COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/BJR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 201929
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF
THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...MAINLY ISOL SHOWERS/TSTMS INVOF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. NAM AND GFS BRING A
FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
RTES BUT THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF
INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO
PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS
IN CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY LIGHT  NLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...HOWEVER SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE SEEN WINDS SHIFT TO SLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201929
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF
THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...MAINLY ISOL SHOWERS/TSTMS INVOF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. NAM AND GFS BRING A
FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
RTES BUT THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF
INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO
PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS
IN CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY LIGHT  NLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...HOWEVER SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE SEEN WINDS SHIFT TO SLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK






000
FXUS62 KILM 201916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM H5 TEMPS OF -5 TO -6 ARE SQUELCHING
THE PROPENSITY FOR TOWERS TO ASCEND VERY MUCH ABOVE 45000
FEET...BUT A SNAKE PIT OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM OUTFLOWS...A SEA
BREEZE LINE AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE
CELLS CLOSER TO SEVERE LIMITS IN ANY STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISION.

PWAT VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NE SC/SE NC...ALONG WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT
IN VAPOR MOVIES. THESE FEATURES MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF EVENING DESPITE A DIURNAL COOLING TREND AFTER DUSK. AT THE
SFC A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER INLAND ZONES AND
SOME DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS ONCE THE ENSUING UPDRAFT COLLAPSES.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS
ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT
DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR FRI AS WELL.

UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR
US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA
ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE
BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX
OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9
SECONDS. STEERING WINDS COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING
IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT
BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/BJR/MBB







000
FXUS62 KRAH 201907
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201907
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201907
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201907
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY...LEADING
TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND H85 TEMPS SURPASSING
20C.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY FLOW...AND
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS WILL INTO THE 90S...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 93-97.  MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP KNOCK DEWPOINTS BACK A
FEW DEGREES...HELPING KEEP HEAT INDICES AT 100F OR LESS.  MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST...BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO
THE RESIDUAL/THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
WILL KEEP POPS AS ISOLATED UNLESS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 201824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  ONE
UPPER DISTURBANCE...ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...CLIPPED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DIED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD.  A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP H5
ANALYSIS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE HEATING WAS UNINHIBITED BY
MORNING STRATUS.  WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS HAS INITIATED SOME SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM RAEFORD TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS YET TO LATCH ONTO
ANY TREND IN THE NEAR TERM.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY FROM THE TRIAD DOWN TO FAYETTEVILLE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM THO TRIANGLE NORTHEAST. IF CONVECTION DOES FIRE...A
RIBBON OF 30KT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP L;APSE RATES ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BUT THERE ISNT A CLEAR MECHANISM TO FORCE ANY
PARCELS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER
03Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT
WITHOUT THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WE`VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHT...AND THEREFORE LESS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201750
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201750
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

MORNING STRATUS LIFTED TO VFR MOST PLACES PRIOR TO 17Z...THOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL NEAR TERM UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED.  BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS IT APPEARS AREA FROM KGSO/KINT
TO KFAY WILL BE MOST FAVORED...AND THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KFAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SHOW AS
MUCH POTENTIAL AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  IF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOP...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 201744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 201744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 201744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 201744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE INITIAL LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY
WEEKEND PERIOD... PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ARE JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
ENOUGH TO DAMPEN PRECIP CHANCES.

HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING FRIDAY ARE INDICATIVE OF
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HEIGHTS FALL
AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONCURRENT WITH COOL
AIR ADVECTION BY LATER SATURDAY IN UNIFORM LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN TRANSITION SATURDAY...FROM MID 80S NORTH TO 90
SOUTH...AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DAMMING SETTLES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORNING LOWS
INITIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR AND
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KILM 201736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...UPDATED THE LAND FORECASTS TO INCREASE
POP VALUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ORIENTATION OF A WIND
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE PREVAILING STORM
MOTION IS LEADING TO TRAINING OF CELLS IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF INLAND NC. FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EVENING DUE TO HIGH PWAT CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL EPISODES OF RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES
REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS
DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL YESTERDAY THAT MOVED
OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE IN
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW WIND ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF
SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A
ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED
TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE
UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR
LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS
SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT
BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER
OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO
6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+
SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...DAVE/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 201736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...UPDATED THE LAND FORECASTS TO INCREASE
POP VALUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ORIENTATION OF A WIND
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE PREVAILING STORM
MOTION IS LEADING TO TRAINING OF CELLS IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF INLAND NC. FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EVENING DUE TO HIGH PWAT CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL EPISODES OF RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES
REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS
DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL YESTERDAY THAT MOVED
OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE IN
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW WIND ACROSS
INLAND AREAS.

SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF
SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A
ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED
TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE
UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR
LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS
SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT
BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER
OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE
THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO
6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+
SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...DAVE/8





000
FXUS62 KMHX 201429
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1029 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR LATE THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREAS THIS MORNING IS BURNING OFF
QUICKLY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT IT TO BE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED AROUND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND THAT WILL AFFECT DARE...HYDE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE OBX
AROUND 17Z...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE VERY SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE POPS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING IS
BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT
IT TO BE DISSIPATED BY 15Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD WITH PRED VFR
RETURNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE VERY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW NW/NE WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN
LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER
WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTH OF LOOKOUT MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201429
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1029 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR LATE THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREAS THIS MORNING IS BURNING OFF
QUICKLY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT IT TO BE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED AROUND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND THAT WILL AFFECT DARE...HYDE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE OBX
AROUND 17Z...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE VERY SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE POPS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING IS
BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT
IT TO BE DISSIPATED BY 15Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD WITH PRED VFR
RETURNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE VERY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW NW/NE WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN
LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER
WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTH OF LOOKOUT MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201429
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1029 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR LATE THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREAS THIS MORNING IS BURNING OFF
QUICKLY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT IT TO BE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED AROUND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND THAT WILL AFFECT DARE...HYDE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE OBX
AROUND 17Z...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE VERY SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE POPS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING IS
BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT
IT TO BE DISSIPATED BY 15Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD WITH PRED VFR
RETURNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE VERY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW NW/NE WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN
LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER
WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTH OF LOOKOUT MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201429
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1029 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR LATE THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREAS THIS MORNING IS BURNING OFF
QUICKLY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT IT TO BE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED AROUND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND THAT WILL AFFECT DARE...HYDE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE OBX
AROUND 17Z...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE VERY SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE POPS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING IS
BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT
IT TO BE DISSIPATED BY 15Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD WITH PRED VFR
RETURNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE VERY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW NW/NE WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN
LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER
WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTH OF LOOKOUT MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KRAH 201420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THAT MUCH OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL HINGE
ON DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THAT THE PRECISE
TIMING OF ANY SUCH DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST (AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW/DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID CHANCE
POPS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT "TRAIN" OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH MAINLY 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME
BY TUESDAY IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES INDEED START TO BUILD EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. &&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 201420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVER ALL WEATHER PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.  IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING...THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 64 ARE STILL
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS.  UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS AIDING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY HELD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ON THE
SOUTHERN END NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.  THE WEAK VORT LOBE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING STRATUS WILL
DELAY BETTER DESTABILIZATION...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE TRIAD AREA
INITIALLY.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVE 1000-
1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM/GFS VALUES ARE VERY
SENSITIVE TO HIGHER/LOWER DEWPOINTS.  IN FACT...THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KINT/KGSO HAVE A DEWPOINT OF 70F AND MLCAPE OVER 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN SREF CONSENSUS.  ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS A RIBBON OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP SHEAR OF UP TO 30KT...SO IF CONVECTION CAN REINTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THAT MUCH OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL HINGE
ON DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THAT THE PRECISE
TIMING OF ANY SUCH DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST (AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW/DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID CHANCE
POPS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT "TRAIN" OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH MAINLY 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME
BY TUESDAY IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES INDEED START TO BUILD EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. &&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 201415
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN
1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS
REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL
YESTERDAY THAT MOVED OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW
WIND ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF
SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A
ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED
TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE
UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR
LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS
SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT
BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER
OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO
6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+
SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...DAVE







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201119
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
719 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ONSLOW COUNTY THIS MORNING...WITH
N/NE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW AND
MOIST BL...FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BETWEEN 13-15Z. LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE VERY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE
POPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WIDESPREAD LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FOG WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT BETWEEN 13-15Z
THIS MORNING...WITH PRED VFR RETURNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE VERY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW NW/NE WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN
LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER
WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTH OF LOOKOUT MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KRAH 201119
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

W-NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE PERSISTENT MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/NE CONUS WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...ONCE AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING...BETWEEN 18 TO
03Z. WEAK DPVA COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS...WITH BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INVOF THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY(WEAK SHEAR
20KTS OR LESS AND ML CAPE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG)...RESULTING A LOW/NON-
ZERO SEVERE THREAT. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THAT MUCH OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL HINGE
ON DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THAT THE PRECISE
TIMING OF ANY SUCH DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST (AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW/DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID CHANCE
POPS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT "TRAIN" OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH MAINLY 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME
BY TUESDAY IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES INDEED START TO BUILD EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. &&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 201119
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

W-NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE PERSISTENT MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/NE CONUS WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...ONCE AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING...BETWEEN 18 TO
03Z. WEAK DPVA COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS...WITH BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INVOF THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY(WEAK SHEAR
20KTS OR LESS AND ML CAPE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG)...RESULTING A LOW/NON-
ZERO SEVERE THREAT. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THAT MUCH OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL HINGE
ON DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THAT THE PRECISE
TIMING OF ANY SUCH DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST (AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW/DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID CHANCE
POPS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT "TRAIN" OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH MAINLY 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME
BY TUESDAY IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES INDEED START TO BUILD EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. &&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-15Z. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WRT FOG TONIGHT...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 201050
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 201050
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 201050
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 201050
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KILM 201024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 201024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY
AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX
TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...
LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR
3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT.
PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 200828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 200828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 200828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 200828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 200817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 200744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 200744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 200744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 200744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 200700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH N/NE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT...AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
OFF THE NC COAST. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AS NLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AIRMASS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE
POPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EWN/OAJ. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES...THOUGH SREF/NARRE PROBS NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH
COVERAGE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT EACH TAF SITE THIS MORNING. FOG WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE
5-10KT BEHIND IT AND W/NW AHEAD OF IT...WITH SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS
LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH
SEAS 2-4FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTH OF OCRACOKE
MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 200700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH N/NE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT...AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
OFF THE NC COAST. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AS NLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AIRMASS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE
POPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EWN/OAJ. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES...THOUGH SREF/NARRE PROBS NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH
COVERAGE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT EACH TAF SITE THIS MORNING. FOG WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE
5-10KT BEHIND IT AND W/NW AHEAD OF IT...WITH SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS
LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH
SEAS 2-4FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTH OF OCRACOKE
MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KRAH 200645
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

W-NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE PERSISTENT MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTICITY LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/NE CONUS WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...ONCE AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING...BETWEEN 18 TO
03Z. WEAK DPVA COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS...WITH BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INVOF THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY(WEAK SHEAR
20KTS OR LESS AND ML CAPE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG)...RESULTING A LOW/NON-
ZERO SEVERE THREAT. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THAT MUCH OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL HINGE
ON DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THAT THE PRECISE
TIMING OF ANY SUCH DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST (AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW/DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID CHANCE
POPS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT "TRAIN" OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH MAINLY 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME
BY TUESDAY IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES INDEED START TO BUILD EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. &&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF THIS EVENING. AREA METARS ARE ALREADY
REPORTING 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY MVFR FOG. NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/NORTHEAST PIEDMONT(KRWI AND KRDU)COULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRATUS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS N-NELY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z.

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 200645
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

W-NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE PERSISTENT MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTICITY LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/NE CONUS WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...ONCE AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING...BETWEEN 18 TO
03Z. WEAK DPVA COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS...WITH BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INVOF THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.

CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY(WEAK SHEAR
20KTS OR LESS AND ML CAPE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG)...RESULTING A LOW/NON-
ZERO SEVERE THREAT. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON THURSDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN POISED TO SEE VORT DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE NE US. AT THIS TIME...CAN NOT FIND A DISCERNIBLE
FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...IN FACT...500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO A POINT WHERE IT COULD END UP
BEING ONE OF THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE H8
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 22C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THURSDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...LEAVING CENTRAL NC UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW REGIME. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THAT MUCH OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL HINGE
ON DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THAT THE PRECISE
TIMING OF ANY SUCH DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST (AND
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED LOW/DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOLID CHANCE
POPS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT "TRAIN" OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THE VERY END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS DOWN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH MAINLY 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME
BY TUESDAY IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES INDEED START TO BUILD EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. &&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF THIS EVENING. AREA METARS ARE ALREADY
REPORTING 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY MVFR FOG. NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/NORTHEAST PIEDMONT(KRWI AND KRDU)COULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRATUS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS N-NELY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z.

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 200606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KILM 200606
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD
POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET
MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED
AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS
VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED
BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL
EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND
WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES
1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN
THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W
TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA
BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY
SURGE LATE SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KRAH 200510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...

WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING SUPPORT ALOFT AS SC VORT MAXIMUM
DRIFTS EAST...BULK OF CONVECTION AS DIMINISHED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AT
MID-EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT
ALOFT FROM A VORT MAX CROSSING THE HIGHLANDS OF WV/VA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF ROANOKE, VA MAY FOLLOW
ALONG THE SFC THETA-E GRADIENT AND DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
LIGHT-CALM WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT VERSUS FOG AS SURFACE GROUND QUITE WARM FROM HEATING
EARLIER TODAY. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SINKING SOUTH AND CROSSING VA/NORTHERN NC DURING
THE DAY. AFTER THE EROSION OF ANY MORNING STRATUS...CONDITIONS ARE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.  DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE INT HE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE EAST.  SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE WEAK
AND THE SEVERE THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MIDWEST AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NE AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
NC. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER
THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...COVERAGE AND LOCATION ARE
STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A
TROUGH TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE LATEST GFS STILL PUSHES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS 80-85
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH AND 85-90 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF AROUND THE HIGH AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE GFS INCREASES PWAT VALUES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO AROUND
2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF THIS EVENING. AREA METARS ARE ALREADY
REPORTING 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY MVFR FOG. NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/NORTHEAST PIEDMONT(KRWI AND KRDU)COULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRATUS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS N-NELY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z.

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...

WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING SUPPORT ALOFT AS SC VORT MAXIMUM
DRIFTS EAST...BULK OF CONVECTION AS DIMINISHED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AT
MID-EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT
ALOFT FROM A VORT MAX CROSSING THE HIGHLANDS OF WV/VA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF ROANOKE, VA MAY FOLLOW
ALONG THE SFC THETA-E GRADIENT AND DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
LIGHT-CALM WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT VERSUS FOG AS SURFACE GROUND QUITE WARM FROM HEATING
EARLIER TODAY. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SINKING SOUTH AND CROSSING VA/NORTHERN NC DURING
THE DAY. AFTER THE EROSION OF ANY MORNING STRATUS...CONDITIONS ARE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.  DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE INT HE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE EAST.  SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE WEAK
AND THE SEVERE THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MIDWEST AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NE AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
NC. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER
THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...COVERAGE AND LOCATION ARE
STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A
TROUGH TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE LATEST GFS STILL PUSHES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS 80-85
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH AND 85-90 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF AROUND THE HIGH AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE GFS INCREASES PWAT VALUES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO AROUND
2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF THIS EVENING. AREA METARS ARE ALREADY
REPORTING 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY MVFR FOG. NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/NORTHEAST PIEDMONT(KRWI AND KRDU)COULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRATUS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS N-NELY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z.

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...

WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING SUPPORT ALOFT AS SC VORT MAXIMUM
DRIFTS EAST...BULK OF CONVECTION AS DIMINISHED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AT
MID-EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT
ALOFT FROM A VORT MAX CROSSING THE HIGHLANDS OF WV/VA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF ROANOKE, VA MAY FOLLOW
ALONG THE SFC THETA-E GRADIENT AND DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
LIGHT-CALM WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT VERSUS FOG AS SURFACE GROUND QUITE WARM FROM HEATING
EARLIER TODAY. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SINKING SOUTH AND CROSSING VA/NORTHERN NC DURING
THE DAY. AFTER THE EROSION OF ANY MORNING STRATUS...CONDITIONS ARE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.  DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE INT HE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE EAST.  SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE WEAK
AND THE SEVERE THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MIDWEST AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NE AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
NC. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER
THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...COVERAGE AND LOCATION ARE
STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A
TROUGH TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE LATEST GFS STILL PUSHES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS 80-85
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH AND 85-90 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF AROUND THE HIGH AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE GFS INCREASES PWAT VALUES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO AROUND
2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF THIS EVENING. AREA METARS ARE ALREADY
REPORTING 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY MVFR FOG. NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/NORTHEAST PIEDMONT(KRWI AND KRDU)COULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRATUS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS N-NELY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z.

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.  A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...

WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING SUPPORT ALOFT AS SC VORT MAXIMUM
DRIFTS EAST...BULK OF CONVECTION AS DIMINISHED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AT
MID-EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT
ALOFT FROM A VORT MAX CROSSING THE HIGHLANDS OF WV/VA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF ROANOKE, VA MAY FOLLOW
ALONG THE SFC THETA-E GRADIENT AND DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
LIGHT-CALM WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT VERSUS FOG AS SURFACE GROUND QUITE WARM FROM HEATING
EARLIER TODAY. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SINKING SOUTH AND CROSSING VA/NORTHERN NC DURING
THE DAY. AFTER THE EROSION OF ANY MORNING STRATUS...CONDITIONS ARE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.  DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE INT HE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE EAST.  SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE WEAK
AND THE SEVERE THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MIDWEST AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NE AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
NC. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER
THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...COVERAGE AND LOCATION ARE
STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A
TROUGH TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE LATEST GFS STILL PUSHES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS 80-85
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH AND 85-90 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF AROUND THE HIGH AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE GFS INCREASES PWAT VALUES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO AROUND
2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF THIS EVENING. AREA METARS ARE ALREADY
REPORTING 2 TO 3 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY MVFR FOG. NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/NORTHEAST PIEDMONT(KRWI AND KRDU)COULD ALSO SEE SOME
STRATUS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS N-NELY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z.

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 200457
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM ABOUT SOUTHERN
LENOIR COUNTY TO DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY...AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH N/NE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. RADAR SHOWS SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WATERS BTWN LOOKOUT AND HATTERAS PUSHING
ENE...WITH REST OF AREA REMAINING DRY. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS NLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND LITTLE CHANGE TO
AIRMASS. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA WED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT THE
AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75-2" AND
EXPECT ISOL TO SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING POPS RATHER LOW AROUND 20-30
PERCENT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE AND EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC BNDRY OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFUSE
AND/OR MOVE BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL WSW
FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S
INLAND ON THU WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH HEAT INDICES
LIKELY 100+. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THRU
EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. INITIALLY THIS WILL DRIVE A SFC FRONT THRU THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THU NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHUD LOWER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL FLOW DRIES OUT BUT WILL HANG ONTO CHC AFTN
POPS IN CASE FROPA TIMING SLOWS DOWN OR FRONT GETS HUNG UP ON THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC IN PERSISTENT NNW
FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW WILL TRIGGER
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT/ACTIVITY THRU THE WEEKEND AND TIMING THESE SMALL SCALE
SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU THE WEEKEND FOR NOW WITH HIGHER POPS FOR
DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FRAMES. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL KEEP DAY 7
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EWN/OAJ. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES...THOUGH SREF/NARRE PROBS NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH
COVERAGE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT EACH TAF SITE THIS MORNING. FOG WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THU AFTERNOON OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THU/THU
NIGHT AND THE CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INCREASING
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS SHRA/TSRA CROSS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT IS BISECTING THE WATERS...AND
GENERALLY THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND...MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-10KT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND W/NW AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF IT. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2-3FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND 2-5FT SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS WED AND WAVERS SOME THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT...GENERALLY W/SW
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND N/NE NORTH.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT N/NE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING S 10
TO 15 KTS LATE THU. S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF THU NIGHT
WILL GRAD SHIFT TO N/NE FROM N TO S FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES S
THRU THE WTRS. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM FROM THE N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS FRI NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...POSS GUSTING TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS MAINLY 2
TO 3 FT THRU FRI...THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/SK/CQD/BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 200457
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM ABOUT SOUTHERN
LENOIR COUNTY TO DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY...AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH N/NE DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. RADAR SHOWS SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WATERS BTWN LOOKOUT AND HATTERAS PUSHING
ENE...WITH REST OF AREA REMAINING DRY. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS NLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND LITTLE CHANGE TO
AIRMASS. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA WED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT THE
AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75-2" AND
EXPECT ISOL TO SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING POPS RATHER LOW AROUND 20-30
PERCENT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE AND EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC BNDRY OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFUSE
AND/OR MOVE BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL WSW
FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND
RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S
INLAND ON THU WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH HEAT INDICES
LIKELY 100+. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THRU
EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. INITIALLY THIS WILL DRIVE A SFC FRONT THRU THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THU NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHUD LOWER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL FLOW DRIES OUT BUT WILL HANG ONTO CHC AFTN
POPS IN CASE FROPA TIMING SLOWS DOWN OR FRONT GETS HUNG UP ON THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC IN PERSISTENT NNW
FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW WILL TRIGGER
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT/ACTIVITY THRU THE WEEKEND AND TIMING THESE SMALL SCALE
SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEEP SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU THE WEEKEND FOR NOW WITH HIGHER POPS FOR
DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FRAMES. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL KEEP DAY 7
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EWN/OAJ. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES...THOUGH SREF/NARRE PROBS NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH
COVERAGE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT EACH TAF SITE THIS MORNING. FOG WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THU AFTERNOON OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THU/THU
NIGHT AND THE CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INCREASING
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS SHRA/TSRA CROSS...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT IS BISECTING THE WATERS...AND
GENERALLY THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND...MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-10KT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND W/NW AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF IT. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2-3FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND 2-5FT SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS WED AND WAVERS SOME THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT...GENERALLY W/SW
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND N/NE NORTH.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS BECOME LIGHT N/NE WED NIGHT WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING S 10
TO 15 KTS LATE THU. S/SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF THU NIGHT
WILL GRAD SHIFT TO N/NE FROM N TO S FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES S
THRU THE WTRS. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM FROM THE N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS FRI NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...POSS GUSTING TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS MAINLY 2
TO 3 FT THRU FRI...THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/SK/CQD/BM







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